NXG - Sector: Basic Materials---Industry: Gold & Silver

[Melf Elf]

Given the drop in copper, and given that the related stocks got "Cramerized," (as cumulina puts it) by his call for a collapse in copper, NXG suffered some guilt by association due to its exposure to copper, but it held up surprisingly well last week.

There is weakness in the copper fundamentals, but technically, we've still got the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, and we're still above that. 

As a technician, I always defer to the technicals over the fundamentals, and since NXG hasn't done anything wrong, technically, I'll stay with my plan, which is:

I've decided to be a little more demanding of NXG in this environment, and to sell it if it's set to close below 3.20. which would give me 2-3% gain on my remaining 80% long position.

I'll also sell more into strength, if we get to the next target IN PLAY.

Just wanted to give all of you a heads up, so you can make your own decisions.

If any of you decide to cash in and take the money, I wouldn't blame you at all.  It's an 8% gain here from my 3.11 entry, and a number of you got in it for less than I did.  NXG has been outperforming sector-related stocks, but it could succumb to the negative fundamentals.

Good luck to everyone!

[Melf Elf]

I'll also sell more into strength, if we get to the next target IN PLAY.

Sold another 20% of my NXG at 3.54, between Targets #4 and #5.  Gain: 13.8%

Near-term...

Target #1 - 3.29 - the 200DMA - MADE
Target #2 - 3.33 -  little Ascending Triangle that had the highs of 3.14 - MADE
Target #3 - 3.35-3.36 -  gap from the Halloween Bearish Island Reversal - MADE
Target #4 - 3.53 - the high of the Bearish Island Reversal - MADE
Target #5 - 3.58 - the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple on the daily)

Target #4, 3.53 MADE

[calven]

We got a nice candle today testing 3.55 resistance - unfortionately we weren't able to make a close above that level. Should NXG candle and close above 3.55 , 3.90 would be in play... Shocked

I have moved my stop to 3.31 (200 day) and am debating on something a little higher even...

-calven

[setravis]

"NXG" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                  
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                  
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$        
   

Happy New Year ! May it be Prosperous for all @ 3SOF......   

[Melf Elf]

As a technician, I always defer to the technicals over the fundamentals, and since NXG hasn't done anything wrong, technically, I'll stay with my plan

The technicals still look strong, e.g., the 34/55RSIs are moving higher, coming off the December 20 Buy Signal at 3.18.

[Melf Elf]

Sold another 10% of my NXG at 3.58.  Gain: 15.1%

Holding 50% of the long position.

Target #1 - 3.29 - the 200DMA
Target #2 - 3.33 - the little Ascending Triangle that had the highs of 3.14
Target #3 - 3.35-3.36 - the gap from the Halloween Bearish Island Reversal
Target #4 - 3.53 - the high of the Bearish Island Reversal
Target #5 - 3.58 - the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple on the daily)

Target #5: 3.58 MADE.  That's a new high for the move, confirming the strength in the 34/55 RSIs (lead indicator).

[rurouni]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070103/0199644.html

NORTHGATE ISSUES 37,908,233 COMMON SHARES UPON EXERCISE OF COMMON SHARE PURCHASE WARRANTS
Wednesday January 3, 6:47 pm ET

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 3, 2007 -- Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX.TO - News)(AMEX:NXG - News) ("Northgate") today announced that prior to their expiry at 5:00 pm (EST) on December 28, 2006, 37,908,233 of Northgate's publicly traded common share purchase warrants were exercised and an identical number of Northgate common shares were issued. The warrants exercised represented 99.3% of the warrants that were outstanding prior to expiry and as a result of the exercise, the number of issued and outstanding common shares of Northgate has now risen to 253,684,813.

Both series of warrants (CUSIP numbers 666416169 and 666416177) have now been de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange and all remaining unexercised warrants are valueless.

Northgate Minerals Corporation is a gold and copper mining company focused on operations and opportunities in the Americas. The Corporation's principal assets are the 300,000-ounce per year Kemess South mine in north-central British Columbia, the adjacent Kemess North deposit, which contains a Proven and Probable Reserve of 4.1 million ounces of gold and the Young-Davidson gold property in northern Ontario. Northgate is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NGX and on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol NXG.

Forward-Looking Statements

This news release includes certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements include estimates, forecasts, and statements as to management's expectations with respect to, among other things, future metal production and production costs, potential mineralization and reserves, exploration results, progress in the development of mineral properties, demand and market outlook for commodities and future plans and objectives of Northgate Minerals Corporation (Northgate). Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "anticipate", "believe", or "continue" or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Northgate's expectations are disclosed under the heading "Risk and Uncertainties" in Northgate's 2005 Annual Report and under the heading "Risk Factors" in Northgate's 2005 Annual Information Form (AIF) both of which are filed with Canadian regulators on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov). Northgate expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

[Melf Elf]

NORTHGATE ISSUES 37,908,233 COMMON SHARES UPON EXERCISE OF COMMON SHARE PURCHASE WARRANTS
Wednesday January 3, 6:47 pm ET

Wayne,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

I don't know what effect that will have on trading in NXG, but I've realized that I should have sold my remaining 50% long position yesterday at 3.40, a penny below last Friday's low.

Sold another 10% of my NXG at 3.58.  Gain: 15.1%

Target #5: 3.58 MADE.  That's a new high for the move, confirming the strength in the 34/55 RSIs (lead indicator).

I was half-tempted to sell all of my remaining position when Target #5 MADE, since it was the last of my short-term targets, but I couldn't find reason to do it because:

1. The technicals looked very good

2. We had taken out the October high of 3.53, so it looked like we were going higher (and we still might).

December 28 was a Bearish Engulfer off the 3.59 high, but that didn't bother me too much, given how bullish NXG has been acting.

We finished 2006 on a Bear Flag/Rising Channel (pattern in red), the low of which was 3.41 on December 29.  Rising Channels aren't always bearish, though, especially in stocks that are acting bullish, like NXG, which broke out and made FIVE upside targets.  That last candle of 2006 (December 29) also looked like a Bullish Hammer off the bottom of the channel.

Nope. 

Yesterday, January 3, the bottom of the Bear Flag/Rising Channel came in at 3.49.  NXG opened at 3.50, printed 3.51, then started tanking. 

I really should have used the downside takeout of Friday's 3.41 low (so, 3.40) as my stop, because:

1. We had the Bearish Engulfer off Target #5, 3.58.

2. The Bear Flag/Rising Channel got broken to the downside on the print of 3.48 yesterday, suggesting at least short-term bearishness.

3. The prior low of the Bear Flag;/Rising Channel (3.41) then got taken down, confirming the short-term bearishness.

4. Volume on the tank increased, and we finished the day at over 4 million shares, with NXG closing down 5.5%, at 3.29. 

Bottom line: 3.21-3.20 key support hasn't been broken and still could hold, but I think that I made a mistake not selling it yesterday, at 3.40. 

I'll sell my remaining 50% of NXG at the open this morning.

[Melf Elf]

Sold remaining 50% NXG at the open for 3.21.  Gain: 3.2% 

Gain on the trade: 7.7%

[rurouni]

Wayne,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

I don't know what effect that will have on trading in NXG, but I've realized that I should have sold my remaining 50% long position yesterday at 3.40, a penny below last Friday's low.

Hi Melf,

You are welcome.  I made a mistake of:

1. Not watching my stocks more closely
2. Hesitating to sell when NXG dropped 3-4% yesterday.  I should have sold it when I knew that it was out of character for NXG to behave that way.  It rarely drop that much.

Turned a decent gain into a small loss.

[Melf Elf]

[You are welcome.  I made a mistake of:

1. Not watching my stocks more closely
2. Hesitating to sell when NXG dropped 3-4% yesterday.  I should have sold it when I knew that it was out of character for NXG to behave that way.  It rarely drop that much.

Turned a decent gain into a small loss.

Wayne,

Sorry to hear that, darn it.  I didn't play my exit well on the last 50%, either.   

In addition to not selling the break of the Bear Flag below 3.41, I did too much holiday celebrating and didn't even notice the H&S Top on the Hourly Chart.  The neckline also was 3.41...3.41, so not selling the print of 3.40 was a DOUBLE mistake, since two patterns broke right at 3.40.

Curses!   

The H&S Top put 3.23 IN PLAY, which MADE on the gap down opening.

Math:

3.59 - High
3.41 - Neckline

3.59 - 3.41 = 0.18 points.  3.41 - 0.18 points = Target: 3.23

I hated selling on the gap down at the open, to 3.21, but that turned out alright.  I was tempted to wait for a gap-filling rally, but when it's time to sell, it's time to sell!

That would have been Mistake #3.  The gap wasn't filled, and I would have been stopped out for almost no gain on the remaining 50% when 3.14 support (the top of the little Ascending Triangle) got broken on the drop to 3.12.

Thanks for sharing your mistakes, Wayne.  Applause.   There always are opportunities to make them, and it helps a lot to learn from them, and try not to repeat them.

Given the mistakes that I made, I really don't deserve the 7.7% gain, but at least I learned to "Take profits when targets get MADE," and that saved my behind, selling into the five targets that got MADE.

Good luck, Wayne.  You'll get 'em next time.  Good to see you posting again!  I never did get those Wolfe Wave formulas to work out in the Metastock Explorer, by the way.  Thanks again for your help on that.

[shaker340]

I played this stock poorly also, I should have gotten out around $3.55, but I made the mistake of not setting my stop, which cost me all the way down to $2.97. That was not a good way to start out the new year

[Melf Elf]

I played this stock poorly also, I should have gotten out around $3.55, but I made the mistake of not setting my stop, which cost me all the way down to $2.97. That was not a good way to start out the new year

Shaker,

I'm sorry for your loss, but I appreciate and admire your sharing that information so that  we all can help each other to learn from our mistakes, and to do better.  Applause.

Best of luck to you for the rest of 2007.  We have lots of time to improve! 

[calven]

Im still holding from 3.29 - not getting shaken, good stock, great earnings, great future and a LT upward trend... its going to take sustained movement below $3.00 for me to dump this.

As you can see NXG candled on the previous resistance line - perfectly normal 

Now if we get another move below 3.00  im exiting....

calven

[calven]

At 3.51 now and looking strong!