For a start I'm not going to tell you what this company does, or what are their financials. I want you to focus on the next two charts:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4677;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4678;image)
They are pretty similar, aren't they?
Now let's compare the long term charts of the two companies, VPHM and HOM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4679;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4680;image)
Again, the charts match very well, so exclusively according to technical analysis, the two stocks are basically the same. Perhaps I don't have to tell you what happened to VPHM after the pattern we're identifying here, but I'll show it anyway, since it is one of the most beautiful bullish trends I've ever seen:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4681;image)
The stock shot up 8 fold in just 4 months :o
I know, I know, you're thinking:
«But that doesn't mean anything, fundamentals are completely different, one is a biotech and pharma company and the other provides specialty residential services»
My answer for this argument is: the market is made by people. Stocks don't go up by themselves, they need sponsors to bolster their prices. The way people trade a stock tells you a lot about its future potential and that can be perceived by analysing a chart. These two charts tell me people anticipate the same future for these two stocks.
VPHM and HOM are definitely stocks that I want. If you feel more pleased check the fundamentals on HOM (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=hom&vc=0&siteid=mktw&dist=dropmenu), I think they are very attractive. Here I see a very simple trading plan in the making with low risk and huge potential (hold the stock and possibly add on pullbacks for as long as it closes above the ascending trendline).
I'm buying HOM tomorrow for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire, and he will update this analysis everyday after the close until he sells the stock. The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is up 148% since inception on 28th of April 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php). 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 3154 members exchange trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register) and receive our free newsletter)
Wow David, i have not seen you so excited about two stocks like this and SNUS in awhile. Gets me fired up ya know. I know this market will do what it will and I must do my own DD and such, but I have all my funds tied up. I like these 2 and was just wondering why you feel these have such a small failure rate and such high expectations?
Nothing special puenthouse, I turned bearish on the general market but it has proved me wrong. I need to catch up fast and be full invested in a few days.
Today was the day that my filter showed up the biggest percentage of very bullish stocks since 3 Stocks on Fire started, 5.1% (it usually rejects more than 99% of total stocks).
It was hard to choose between so many good opportunities, and I've picked these 3. I hope they do well.
With so much bearish news, hurricanes, oil prices and gasoline prices to the roof, and the stock market comes up with a powerful white candle from support?
I guess we're going to see a short term powerful advance phase in the general market, possibly to new highs ... stocks that are breaking out know offer the best chances for appreciation.
I leave a chart of the SPX ETF, good luck puenthouse :D
These are fundamental info I put together for HOM. It seems to me that anything under 3.5 is undervalue. It is another AOB type company in my view. This is also one of a good hurricane play since they do remodeling business on south eastern states.
*** Lastest Acquistion News ***
Home Solutions of America Enters Into Letter of Intent to Purchase California Marble Company
Acquisition Expected to Add $3 Million in Annual Revenue and $500,000 in EBITDA and Expand Remodeling Services Offerings. The acquisition will be financed with internally generated cash.
Home Solutions Of America Inc (AMEX: HOM) is rapidly growing its core business through both an internal and acquisition strategy. HOM has experienced a nice increase in sales and earnings quarter after quarter. Insiders own 60% of the 16.8 million shares outstanding. Institutions own 2% of the low 6.5 million float. (get them from yahoo board) .
The Company has implemented an aggressive acquisition program, completing one acquisition in 2002; two acquisitions in 2003; with several letters of intent outstanding for additional acquisitions in 2004. Typically, acquisitions are completed at approximately 4.0x to 5.0x historical cash flow with financing provided by outside capital, seller notes and common stock of the Company. Under this strategy announced in late 2002, the Company has rapidly grown from a revenue base of only a few million to its current revenue run rate of approximately $30 million.
+++ HOM INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS:
* 15.1 Million Shares in Float (O/S 21 Million) (get from yahoo stat)
* Revenues of over $31million/year
* Over 100% Revenue Growth. $2.5M in 2002, $14M in 2003 and $31M in 2004
* Expect record revenue of 55-60M for 2005
* 2004 Net Income of 12.8c/share
* Market Cap $70 million
* P/E = 19.9
* Lastest quarterly Revenue Increases 117.6% (16.1M)
* Net Income Jumps 83%, and Diluted EPS of 4 Cents Increases 100%
* Company Increases Full-Year 2005 Diluted EPS Guidance to $0.18 to $0.20 From $0.14 to $0.18 Per Diluted Share
* Trading below when it was not profitable in 2003 ($3/share, see chart).
* Business Outlook (from Q2 report)
The Company today issued the following outlook for the balance of the year. It now expects to generate record full-year revenue of $57.0 to $61.0 million, compared to previous guidance of $55.0 to $60.0 million. It expects record EBITDA of $9.0 to $9.9 million, compared to previous expectations of $8.5 to $9.5 million. Home Solutions increased its 2005 guidance for fully-diluted earnings per share of $0.18 to $0.20 compared to previous expectations of $0.14 to $0.18 per diluted share. This guidance assumes that Cornerstone will incur significant additional costs in connection with the roll-out of its products to national home retailers.
* Insider buying http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HOM
P 2005-05-26 2005-05-31 17:05:27 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM OBRIEN RICK JUSTIN CFO 5,000 $1.39 $6,950.00 11,200 -4.32%
P 2004-09-14 2004-09-14 19:34:46 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM OBRIEN RICK JUSTIN CFO 6,200 $1.34 $8,308.00 6,200 15.67%
P 2004-01-26 2004-01-28 10:16:48 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM KIMBRELL WILLARD W director 1,000 $1.78 $1,780.00 2,000 -2.25%
P 2003-10-14 2003-10-16 17:11:30 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM GARTH TYRRELL L 10% owner 3,500 $2.20 $7,700.00 1,323,940 -6.82%
P 2003-10-14 2003-10-16 17:11:30 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM GARTH TYRRELL L 10% owner 2,000 $2.22 $4,440.00 1,325,940 -7.66%
P 2003-10-14 2003-10-16 17:11:30 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM GARTH TYRRELL L 10% owner 4,500 $2.25 $10,125.00 1,330,440 -8.89%
P 2003-07-11 2003-07-15 12:20:25 HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC HOM KIMBRELL WILLARD W director 1,000 $3.04 $3,040.00 1,000 -19.41%
Home Solutions of America, Inc. provides restoration and specialty interior services for primarily residential properties to customers located in California, Texas, and Florida. The company operates in two segments, Restoration Services and Specialty Interior Services. The Restoration Services include indoor air contaminate removal, carpet cleaning, air-duct cleaning, and fabric protection for residential and light commercial properties. The Specialty Interior Services include cabinet and countertop installation services. Home Solutions of America was incorporated in 1998. The company was formerly known as Nextgen Communications Corporation and changed its name to Home Solutions of America, Inc. in 2002. Home Solutions of America is based in Dallas, Texas.
I was trading this stock from low 2 to 3, gott in/out couple times around the core position. If the pattern repeats, it will consolidate in 2.6-2.7 region, but with the record volumn today 08/31/05...I am not quite sure where it will go next but I am sure that anything is a steal under $3...IMO.
Just look at their revenue and profit growth.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=HOM&annual
GLTA.
As I came into VPHM very late (when I first posted here, about), I'm thrilled that you've already come across a "clone!" -- and VPHM still not seeing a top!
Wonderful find, great to be 'in on the ground floor,' this time...if our expectations are filled I can make the donation :D
I agree %100 on this stock, especially on the account of the Volume and overall bullishness.
Im gonna go in tomorrow morning after the first green candle.
Also as sad it is to say (in lieu of the hurricane) (re)construction is going up.
I'm glad I bought this stock when I first noticed it at 1.90. I'm thilled that it is now discovered, since I have been waiting for the high volume to appear, as it did today. So what's the expected target on HOM? Back to the highs from 5 years ago?
I'm almost fully invested so i have only 1 place left, now i'm doubting between HOM, SYNC and SNUS to fill my last spot. :-\
I tend to go along with HOM with SNUS as a good 2nd!
It's not easy to choose when there are some attractive picks!Any suggestions? :)
I'm on the same boat. ;D
Today's picks are absolutely yummy!
With an office in Birmingham, AL the potential in getting contracts from insurances Co and others for water restoration and mold remediation is huge.
interesting article on Mold in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina
http://pdfserver.emediawire.com/pdfdownload/278628/pr.pdf#search='mold%20hurricane%20katrina'
Insider buying?
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=38 92844&Type=HTML
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=38 92845&Type=HTML
David, thanks. In at $3.20. The fundamentals looks solid. They are profitable and paring down their debt.
The chart comparison with VPHM was excellent. I would only differ in that the recurring demand for VPHM products is far stronger than that of HOM. Medicines are a necessity! Hence cash flow will be stronger for VPHM. Let me put it this way, for VPHM on a scale of 1-10, 10 being the strongest, I would give VPHM a 10 and HOM a 8!
We're having some insider buying on HOM too, just like it happened with VPHM. Put another 5% white candle on the chart below and it is looking more and more VPHM's kind.
I really don't know when I will sell this, my plan is to hold the stock for as long as it closes above the ascending trendline on the chart below.
Starfire, David doesn't differ. He addressed your specific point here:
Quote«But that doesn't mean anything, fundamentals are completely different, one is a biotech and pharma company and the other provides specialty residential services»
My answer for this argument is: the market is made by people. Stocks don't go up by themselves, they need sponsors to bolster their prices. The way people trade a stock tells you a lot about its future potential and that can be perceived by analysing a chart. These two charts tell me people anticipate the same future for these two stocks.
And the charts seem to reflect his point! :)
I am in as well.
I hope the L.A. people are ok. HOM could be helpful in the reconstruction with their water damage restoration, clearning and fabric protection services. They are in the neighbor state as well.
http://www.homcorp.com/index.php/services/
The volume today was 2.4M, a new high!
FYI: 8-K for HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC
On August 30, 2005, Home Solutions of America, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Registrant") entered into the following agreements: (1) a stock option agreement with Frank J. Fradella, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, whereby Mr. Fradella received a stock option to purchase 165,448 shares of our common stock, $.001 par value ("Common Stock"), for $2.53 per share, immediately vested; (2) a stock option agreement with Rick J. O'Brien, the Company's Senior Vice President, Secretary and Chief Financial Officer, whereby Mr. O'Brien received a stock option to purchase 110,296 shares of Common Stock for $2.53 per share, immediately vested; and (3) amendments to three stock option agreements with Mr. Fradella and Mr. O'Brien, whereby the unvested portions of certain stock options held by these officers (Mr. Fradella's stock option is for 750,000 shares of Common Stock, and Mr. O'Brien's two stock options are for an aggregate of 500,000 shares of Common Stock) became immediately vested.
Hi, im new to the board :)
Anyway im in also at $3 avg i think i might have came a lil late for this one =/ but i hope not.
I think 3 is a good entry point, specially considering how fast it recovered today.
(provided the 8k report does not have a negative effect e.g. those vested insiders decide to drop it)
xwhois
What does last 8K actualy say?
Mgmt would sell immediately purchased shares? If so , for what reason?
Best,
Vova
FYI: 8-K for HOME SOLUTIONS OF AMERICA INC
On August 30, 2005, Home Solutions of America, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Registrant") entered into the following agreements: (1) a stock option agreement with Frank J. Fradella, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, whereby Mr. Fradella received a stock option to purchase 165,448 shares of our common stock, $.001 par value ("Common Stock"), for $2.53 per share, immediately vested; (2) a stock option agreement with Rick J. O'Brien, the Company's Senior Vice President, Secretary and Chief Financial Officer, whereby Mr. O'Brien received a stock option to purchase 110,296 shares of Common Stock for $2.53 per share, immediately vested; and (3) amendments to three stock option agreements with Mr. Fradella and Mr. O'Brien, whereby the unvested portions of certain stock options held by these officers (Mr. Fradella's stock option is for 750,000 shares of Common Stock, and Mr. O'Brien's two stock options are for an aggregate of 500,000 shares of Common Stock) became immediately vested.
Quote
Absolutely Not. The 8K only says that they requested to make the stocks immediately vested, which means they could sell it if they wanted to.
However, I dont see why would they flip all the shares they got at tuesday's price.
I would think if they were going to do that, they would wait for the shares to go up a bit to like 5 bucks or something, because thay are already paying 2.53 per share out of their pocket.
Thats my 2 cents. If there are people with more knowledge about this, please post.
Hi, Dav:
If I am not wrong, HOM had a reverse 1:10 split on 06/23/1998. So the gap did not exist.
The highest stock price for HOM is around $18 in the middle of 1999 (split adjusted)
Of course, the company's fundamentals are improving. It makes money during the last few quarters and the recent hurricane may help its business.
It has a strong resistance at $3.50.
Recent volumes are huge, much heavier than the volumes it has during its big run from $1->$18 in 1999.
Bought it last Friday.
I've bought but in looking at the chart I'd say Friday's action is a long legged doji. Combined with the overbought stochastic that appears to be turning leads me to want to watch this very closely on Tuesday and maybe exit at an opening move up, if there is one.
Thank You , Xwhois for your response.
And I want to discuss another 2 points:
1. It seems to me a little bearish when volume is growing significantly
faster than a price :-\ ( unloading? )
2. David compared HOM to VPHM . IMO it's very interesting comparison,
especialy intuitively. Just VPHM grew more steadily ( slower ) . May we
see consolidation in 2.6-2.7 level?
Best,
Vova
Quote from: jtwcpa on September 04, 2005, 04:24:03 PM
I've bought but in looking at the chart I'd say Friday's action is a long legged doji. Combined with the overbought stochastic that appears to be turning leads me to want to watch this very closely on Tuesday and maybe exit at an opening move up, if there is one.
Sometimes strong stocks just keep on going even if overbought and technically in need of a healthy pullback. I'm not predicting what HOM will do this week but the chart looks good to me. Interestingly Friday was record volume despite it being a quiet Holiday weekend. Technically HOM touched significant support points on and yes on a 1 day candle perspective there is a pullback signal, so lets see.
I want to thank tugsinav for his fundamental insights of HOM :)
QuoteHi, Dav:
If I am not wrong, HOM had a reverse 1:10 split on 06/23/1998. So the gap did not exist.
The highest stock price for HOM is around $18 in the middle of 1999 (split adjusted)
Of course, the company's fundamentals are improving. It makes money during the last few quarters and the recent hurricane may help its business.
It has a strong resistance at $3.50.
Recent volumes are huge, much heavier than the volumes it has during its big run from $1->$18 in 1999.
Bought it last Friday.
Thanks for your posts and questions Shawfund. My database was made by Reuters Data Link and it is corrected with all the splits and reverse stock splits, so that information you're telling me is weird, but possibly you're right. What is your source to know when stocks did splits and reverse splits? Thanks.
I don't consider $3.5 to be a strong resistance, that area was reached in 2003 with much lower volume than now, and in the end bull trends have no resistance ;)
In fact, VPHM has a much steeper trendline than HOM. VPHM's trendline rises $0.12 everyday and HOM's rises just $0.03. So maybe HOM will accelerate its upward pace, forming an even steeper trendline. That's what seems to be happenning at this moment. Note that on the last dip the ascending trendline could not be touched, which tells me bulls were not able to buy at support, because they were too many !
So I've designed another trendline (TL2 - second chart), which is much more VPHM's style, rising exactly $0.12 per day.
QuoteI've bought but in looking at the chart I'd say Friday's action is a long legged doji. Combined with the overbought stochastic that appears to be turning leads me to want to watch this very closely on Tuesday and maybe exit at an opening move up, if there is one.
I disagree with this candlestick analysis. What I see is the candle has a big lower tail, which tells me there was profit taking and that profit taking was met by buying interest that took it to new highs. Then profit taking kicked in again by the end of the session, but HOM held on to a gain of $2.58%. So, we've had two waves of profit taking and the stock held.
Today the uptrend will probably continue, volume shows buying interest is very strong.
:) :) :)
I don't have a words, David.
Yahoo is almost half an hour delayed with the price, is there a better site to follow it?
Also, big gap between bid and ask, why?
HOM 9:43am 3.32 +0.14 +4.40% N/A N/A 3.30 3.54
Nice 20% gain today.. wonder if we will see a lil pullback tomorrow.. ???
This is amazing. Congrats on all holding. I was...forgot about a continuous sell order at $ 3,50 :-[ :-[ :-[ And of course it went today. Found out late :(, tried to get back in but was too late. Thought even these things should be shared. Will be following very closely tomorrow and truly hope to get back in at a little pull back.
Did make a profit of 20%, so it's not all bad ;), just not what I was going for with this one. Anyway will make my donation now, that is for sure. That's deal I made with myself; a % of every profit. :) Happy to be able!
Does any of the gurus have an opinion on a max. price to get back in? :-\
Feedback is appreciated a lot.
Amarens
New here, looks like the guru has it right, might just continue to the projected target and perhaps beyond, I got in late after making a mess of my SYNC investment of 1 1/2 years, starting to recover with HOM, a donation will be on it's way for the man if all goes well.
Quote from: Amarens on September 06, 2005, 04:51:33 PM
This is amazing. Congrats on all holding. I was...forgot about a continuous sell order at $ 3,50 :-[ :-[ :-[ And of course it went today. Found out late :(, tried to get back in but was too late. Thought even these things should be shared. Will be following very closely tomorrow and truly hope to get back in at a little pull back.
Did make a profit of 20%, so it's not all bad ;), just not what I was going for with this one. Anyway will make my donation now, that is for sure. That's deal I made with myself; a % of every profit. :) Happy to be able!
Does any of the gurus have an opinion on a max. price to get back in? :-\
Feedback is appreciated a lot.
Amarens
Hi Amarens !
Thanks for your donation ;)
This kind of question is always very difficult to reply... I think HOM has one of the best technical setups of the moment... Its like a train moving fast... but of course, it can have some deeps during the move, which is always very difficult to predict.
Anyway, the buying call was a few sessions ago, and a lot of % bellow... If I was out, I would probably jump next to the support.
The market is here everyday, and there are 11,000+ stocks ready to give us some nice signals. So theres no need to rush any entry if you feel you missed the train... Theres a lot of trains stoping on the 3SOF station ;)
best regards,
Frederick,
Thanks for the fast reply and advice. You're right, lots of trains. Only some are more comfortable then others ;)
Will watch the HOM train and try to get in when it hits a support station. Still believe this one to go lots further.
Will continue the trainspotting with all of you :)
Amarens
There's nothing else to do on HOM but to sit tight. On Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Jesse Livermore says: «It was my sitting that made the most money for me, not my actions».
20% rise, record volume, just let the profits run :-*
Hi, David:
The reverse split is shown in Yahoo Financial.
Go to HOM, click "Basic Chart" and it shows a Splits: 23-Jun-98[1:10].
I bought more at 3.90 and 3.87
Just learned a bit more about candlesticks! :)
Now, was that the beginning of a possible 'shooting star' that was formed today?
If so, that's a bearish reversal pattern and can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance level?! But, bearish confirmation is required after the shooting star and can take the form of a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.
I hope i'm wrong ...
Btw, i'm In at 3.98$, hopefully not to late! ::)
I may be wrong. I saw a reversal signal today.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4966;image)
Big volume. It is a shooting star. But this kind of candlestick bearish pattern has low reliability. It has to be confirmed. Check tomorrow's trading.
It does seem like a shooting star. But how do we explain 4M shares (17% of the oustanding share) bought higher than yesterday? 4M share is a record high.
In a genuine shooting star, longs are suppose to be in control for a period before profit-taking arises. Bears took control on HOM about a half-hour after the open.
Since it's a low reliability indicator, I think this deviation from the "textbook case" should be considered.
Quote from: robt on September 08, 2005, 06:35:19 AM
In a genuine shooting star, longs are suppose to be in control for a period before profit-taking arises. Bears took control on HOM about a half-hour after the open.
Since it's a low reliability indicator, I think this deviation from the "textbook case" should be considered.
Wow, what a picture robt ;D
I agree with robt and others that don't consider this candlestick pattern to be bearish. You see, this is all profit taking and the stock held. At the end of the day, it closed positive, didn't it? Volume was enormous, a record as valueseeker said.
It is possible for HOM to go down over the short term, but I'm focused on TL2, it rises $0.12 every trading day, so in two months it will be $7.86. I think then HOM will still be above the TL2, so I will be still holding the stock.
I'm considering averaging up on every TL2 touch.
a few questions:
-what's the reason behind the recent acceleration in pps?
Is it because of the good earnings or because of Katrina or maybe a combination of both?
- Can HOM really 'benifit' from the tragedy in NO, i haven't seen 1 article that mentions HOM, only assumptions.
- what's a fair value for HOM at this moment?
Tia
Btw, i hope you are right David! :)
Please check MPWG..another KATRINA play same as HOM..up 17% today. thanks :o
Be careful about "hurricane plays" -- stocks that get ahead of themselves on this basis are going to be natural targets for shorting, and the shorts will win in the near term.
HOM was undervalued in the first place. The fact that their services will be especially needed in the quarters to come is an accelerator, but the engine is in the business, not in external conditions.
MPWG is overdue for quarterly earnings. If numbers don't support the chart, there will be a forced reality check.
Hello, I a noob, I found my way to this site via a link...and I see you guys are talkign about one of my favorite things: HOM!!
While I am a noob here, I'm not new to trading. I bought this stock around 2.50, been adding as it goes up, and just added more today.
The quoted post is 100% correct. This isn't a hurricane play. Long before Katrina was swirling over open water, this company was hitting it's stride. They were making money before Katrina, and even without the potential business on the Gulf Coast, they have enough new business to keep them in the black, and in a big way.
It takes more then a few reconstruction contracts to make a good company. Counting on that to turn a loser into a winner is risky.
Certainly, this stock is 'on fire', but underneath all the flames and smoke is a solid company with a very bright future, even if they don't get one single cent of business from Katrina-related activities...
At any rate, looks like there's some like-minded folks around here, I think I stay awhile...
Cheers,
Richard
Quote from: robt on September 08, 2005, 09:38:06 PM
Be careful about "hurricane plays" -- stocks that get ahead of themselves on this basis are going to be natural targets for shorting, and the shorts will win in the near term.
HOM was undervalued in the first place. The fact that their services will be especially needed in the quarters to come is an accelerator, but the engine is in the business, not in external conditions.
MPWG is overdue for quarterly earnings. If numbers don't support the chart, there will be a forced reality check.
David
As we have around 30% profit on HOM ;D I want discuss some negative
issues ??? :
1. Was it growing volume and share price due Katrina's speculations like
Florida's hurricane year ago?
2. Did HOM so high because of "aggressive acquisition program" in last two
years which brought big revenues and not so big profits?
3. What about very high volume in last two days but without significant growing
share price ? ( according to William O'Neil it's unloading? )
May be in HOM's case it's wrong to use O'Neil formula.
Best,
Vova
Quotea few questions:
-what's the reason behind the recent acceleration in pps?
Is it because of the good earnings or because of Katrina or maybe a combination of both?
- Can HOM really 'benifit' from the tragedy in NO, i haven't seen 1 article that mentions HOM, only assumptions.
- what's a fair value for HOM at this moment?
Tia
Btw, i hope you are right David! Smiley
HOM is rising because it's enjoying record revenues and profits and that trend is set to continue. Perhaps some people are buying because of Katrina, and that is justified since this company may benefit from additional demand when they start rebuilding and restoring.
But the revenues, earnings and share price trends were there before Katrina. The fair value for HOM is $3.98, yesterday's close. Ok, ok, I know what you mean, but since I'm not a fundamental analyst I can't provide you a straight answer on this ... and that would probably be counter productive, I would stay away from «fair value» considerations.
QuoteHello, I a noob, I found my way to this site via a link...and I see you guys are talking about one of my favorite things: HOM!!
While I am a noob here, I'm not new to trading. I bought this stock around 2.50, been adding as it goes up, and just added more today.
The quoted post is 100% correct. This isn't a hurricane play. Long before Katrina was swirling over open water, this company was hitting it's stride. They were making money before Katrina, and even without the potential business on the Gulf Coast, they have enough new business to keep them in the black, and in a big way.
It takes more then a few reconstruction contracts to make a good company. Counting on that to turn a loser into a winner is risky.
Certainly, this stock is 'on fire', but underneath all the flames and smoke is a solid company with a very bright future, even if they don't get one single cent of business from Katrina-related activities...
At any rate, looks like there's some like-minded folks around here, I think I stay awhile...
Cheers,
Richard
I'm glad you've found us Richard :). I absolutely agree with you on HOM and hope you stay with 3 Stocks on Fire :)
Quote1. Was it growing volume and share price due Katrina's speculations like
Florida's hurricane year ago?
2. Did HOM so high because of "aggressive acquisition program" in last two
years which brought big revenues and not so big profits?
3. What about very high volume in last two days but without significant growing
share price ? ( according to William O'Neil it's unloading? )
May be in HOM's case it's wrong to use O'Neil formula.
All this can be negatives and I want to thank you for posting them. But I think you are thinking too much here.
What I see is an ascending trendline that rises $0.12 everyday. The plan is to hold the stock for as long as it closes above that trendline. This way, one lets the profits run and at the same time protects them. I believe the market always knows better, and if fundamentals are improving that will be seen on the stock price and if they turn for the worse the market will know that too and the ascending trendline will be broken on the downside.
So, for as long as the perceived fundamentals are improving the stock will continue to rise and I will continue to hold it. Whenever the perception of fundamentals change (it doesn't matter all that much for a position trader if the perception is right or not, you just can't argue with the market flow) the stock will fall below the ascending trendline and I'll sell.
It's that simple.
Here's the chart with my guideline, the TL2.
- 10%.... What happens?
Any bad news?
only a lot of selling going on i guess, this sucks! :(
DAvid doesn't watch intrday too much so he won't have seen this ;) HOM pullback whilst always ugly to watch is not to be unexpected. I am hoping this will turn out to be a retest of support, volume is high and people are being shaken out. On a daily chart the 9ema is $3.47 HOM so far has touched just above it and found a bounce, lets see if todays action leaves a long lower shadow candle test of the 9ema and doesn't inflict any technical damage to the uptrend.
Current Intrday Chart:
Of course going up in a straight line is what we all want, but it hardly ever happens. Remember 3SOF did not buy HOM as a trade, but looked at the longer term picture. That remains great 8)
And personally I don't mind a little set back since I'm still looking to get back in, and today might be the day ;D!
Longer term (and closing above the ascending trend line set by David) I see HOM go up.
Amarens
Thank you Amarens and AussieTrader,
Lets see onto the long term :)
Quote from: David Randolph on September 09, 2005, 06:54:20 AM
Quotea few questions:
-what's the reason behind the recent acceleration in pps?
Is it because of the good earnings or because of Katrina or maybe a combination of both?
- Can HOM really 'benifit' from the tragedy in NO, i haven't seen 1 article that mentions HOM, only assumptions.
- what's a fair value for HOM at this moment?
Tia
Btw, i hope you are right David! Smiley
HOM is rising because it's enjoying record revenues and profits and that trend is set to continue. Perhaps some people are buying because of Katrina, and that is justified since this company may benefit from additional demand when they start rebuilding and restoring.
But the revenues, earnings and share price trends were there before Katrina. The fair value for HOM is $3.98, yesterday's close. Ok, ok, I know what you mean, but since I'm not a fundamental analyst I can't provide you a straight answer on this ... and that would probably be counter productive, I would stay away from «fair value» considerations.
QuoteHello, I a noob, I found my way to this site via a link...and I see you guys are talking about one of my favorite things: HOM!!
While I am a noob here, I'm not new to trading. I bought this stock around 2.50, been adding as it goes up, and just added more today.
The quoted post is 100% correct. This isn't a hurricane play. Long before Katrina was swirling over open water, this company was hitting it's stride. They were making money before Katrina, and even without the potential business on the Gulf Coast, they have enough new business to keep them in the black, and in a big way.
It takes more then a few reconstruction contracts to make a good company. Counting on that to turn a loser into a winner is risky.
Certainly, this stock is 'on fire', but underneath all the flames and smoke is a solid company with a very bright future, even if they don't get one single cent of business from Katrina-related activities...
At any rate, looks like there's some like-minded folks around here, I think I stay awhile...
Cheers,
Richard
I'm glad you've found us Richard :). I absolutely agree with you on HOM and hope you stay with 3 Stocks on Fire :)
Quote1. Was it growing volume and share price due Katrina's speculations like
Florida's hurricane year ago?
2. Did HOM so high because of "aggressive acquisition program" in last two
years which brought big revenues and not so big profits?
3. What about very high volume in last two days but without significant growing
share price ? ( according to William O'Neil it's unloading? )
May be in HOM's case it's wrong to use O'Neil formula.
All this can be negatives and I want to thank you for posting them. But I think you are thinking too much here.
What I see is an ascending trendline that rises $0.12 everyday. The plan is to hold the stock for as long as it closes above that trendline. This way, one lets the profits run and at the same time protects them. I believe the market always knows better, and if fundamentals are improving that will be seen on the stock price and if they turn for the worse the market will know that too and the ascending trendline will be broken on the downside.
So, for as long as the perceived fundamentals are improving the stock will continue to rise and I will continue to hold it. Whenever the perception of fundamentals change (it doesn't matter all that much for a position trader if the perception is right or not, you just can't argue with the market flow) the stock will fall below the ascending trendline and I'll sell.
It's that simple.
Here's the chart with my guideline, the TL2.
Hi David,
Sez you, that as long as PPS closes above the ascending trend line, you'll keep it. Q, if it closes a few(2 or 3) cents below the TL2, technically it is a sell but as the business fundamentals are strong, is it still a sell? For example, you called SMTX a sell, but from my observations, SMTX will end up in the green today! I guess the key question is, are there any exceptions and if yes how do you identify them?
Finally the Pull back ive been waiting for, Im looking to get in possibly monday!
Good luck all ;D
-fousc
I wasn't waiting for this! :(
The 3,5 area seems to hold, hopefully there will be a turnaround next week.
Was there any technical damage today??
:-[ :-\ :( :)
HOLDING
PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT (FOURTH SUPPLEMENT) DATED SEPTEMBER 9, 2005
TO
PROSPECTUS DATED APRIL 2, 2004
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/855424/000100329705000296/hom424b3.htm
SCHEDULE 13D
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/855424/000100329705000298/fradella13d1.htm
sorry if I may seem a little dumb, but I don't understand the significance of you post, maybe for the untrained eye you could explain, today was quite a shock to me, I have never seen a stock run down so fast and run up and down again straight after, disney tried to perfect a ride like this and never got close, I understand it still hasn't broken through the ATL but came very very close, it seems to me that some shake out is going on here, hope it finnished at $3.50
me neither, but hey, it's about HOM and it's 'new'! ::)
Last week, they did the same thing but for last 30 mins before the close. I think they might just wanna hit all stop loss...IMO.
Quote- 10%.... What happens?
Any bad news?
I don't think so, just profit taking and a test to the ascending trendline.
Quoteonly a lot of selling going on i guess, this sucks! Sad
Be cool, this action possibly will make you able to sell higher than if we've had no corrective movements.
QuoteDavid doesn't watch intrday too much so he won't have seen this Wink HOM pullback whilst always ugly to watch is not to be unexpected. I am hoping this will turn out to be a retest of support, volume is high and people are being shaken out. On a daily chart the 9ema is $3.47 HOM so far has touched just above it and found a bounce, lets see if todays action leaves a long lower shadow candle test of the 9ema and doesn't inflict any technical damage to the uptrend.
Thanks aussie, no damage has been made to the technical picture, let me add your 9 day ema to my chart.
QuoteHi David,
Sez you, that as long as PPS closes above the ascending trend line, you'll keep it. Q, if it closes a few(2 or 3) cents below the TL2, technically it is a sell but as the business fundamentals are strong, is it still a sell? For example, you called SMTX a sell, but from my observations, SMTX will end up in the green today! I guess the key question is, are there any exceptions and if yes how do you identify them?
Thanks for the question starfire :)
Sometimes if the trendline cut is too small we may need another day to have a confirmation on the technical signal. Perhaps we'll need to redesign the trendline, pushing it a bit lower. SMTX closed down at the end.
Exceptions can be made, but it's not wise to do so. If you have a previously made trading plan, you should follow it, or you may get lost in the stock market, and no one wants to be lost, without rules and without discipline, because that's when big mistakes and losses will hunt you.
If you want to rely on your personal judgment of fundamentals and not on the market's judgments, you can do that, but for doing so you need to design a trading plan that allows you to do that. I set rules to trade and I follow them. Nothing on the intraday can make me change my rules because I'm previously prepared for every market developments, I'm prepared even for a stock I hold to get delisted overnight, that's why I use diversification to control risk.
Regarding HOM, for example, I like the fundamentals of the stock but I don't know enough, I'm not smart enough, to know everything about the company or the future developments of the stock. So I rely on the market itself to show me what to do. For now the market still clearly says «hold the stock», even more after Friday's sell off. Next I'll explain why.
Again, thank you for your post, and remember, it's not about the money you make on a trade or another, it's about the money you make over 10 or 20 years from now. And you will achieve success only if you have discipline. In fact, making money on a trade where you were not disciplined will make you more harm than good.
QuoteFinally the Pull back ive been waiting for, Im looking to get in possibly monday!
Good luck all Grin
-fousc
Good luck fousc :)
QuoteI wasn't waiting for this! Sad
The 3,5 area seems to hold, hopefully there will be a turnaround next week.
Was there any technical damage today??
No, there wasn't.
Quote from: gharknes on September 09, 2005, 08:18:31 PM
sorry if I may seem a little dumb, but I don't understand the significance of you post, maybe for the untrained eye you could explain, today was quite a shock to me, I have never seen a stock run down so fast and run up and down again straight after, disney tried to perfect a ride like this and never got close, I understand it still hasn't broken through the ATL but came very very close, it seems to me that some shake out is going on here, hope it finished at $3.50
Of course you're not dumb, just inexperienced. Believe me, I wish you'll see stocks go down much faster and a lot more than HOM on Friday and watch it with a smile on your face, that will mean you're still in the game and learned a lot. 10% down is nothing, someday you'll see 50% down on a gap open or on some negative news. That's how the game works, this is a risky business. So you need to use diversification to manage risk.
Good luck and stay around, please :)
Quote from: Se7en on September 09, 2005, 08:39:51 PM
me neither, but hey, it's about HOM and it's 'new'! ::)
Oh, ok, it looks like I'm the only dumb here, you were talking about those SEC filings that came out on HOM after the close on Friday ;D What it looks to me is that some current shareholders are selling and insiders are buying. The CEO already owns 7.87% of the company.
Quote from: tugsinav on September 10, 2005, 01:50:47 AM
Last week, they did the same thing but for last 30 mins before the close. I think they might just wanna hit all stop loss...IMO.
Perhaps. I know I won't lose trading HOM, my entry point was $2.97 and the ascending trendline I'm considering as support is standing at $3.42.
Ok, now on to HOM's daily update:
We've had a benign sell off that almost touched the ascending trendline (TL2), which was standing at $3.30 (the low of the day was $3.33). Then the stock rebounded some to close at $3.55. For today TL2 stands at $3.42, so maybe the stock will open lower, touches that point and then rebounds strongly throughout the day.
We'll see, I will hold for as long as it closes above TL2, so I'll be selling near the close
if the stock is set to close below $3.42, locking in whatever profit I have.
I hope You will don't need to sell, David ;)
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/low912_05.html
david, not sure you realise how many people where waiting for that reply, weekends are long especially when fridays are like the one we just had, things seem to be going north again which was what i expected, this stock seems to have established a base at 3.50, only negative news will send it below that level it seems........don't expect any, so the only way is up from here, you have have a following and we owe you big, i'm going to live in Thailand 2 weeks, will be watching this board intently.
post ediited, to much fluid intake :-)
Quote from: gharknes on September 12, 2005, 03:34:59 PM
david, not sure you realise how many people where waiting for that reply, weekends are long especially when fridays are like the one we just had, things seem to be going north again which was what i expected, this stock seems to have established a base at 3.50, only negative news will send it below that level it seems........don't expect any, so the only way is up from here, you have have a following and I owe you a week in Thailand where i'm going to live in 2 weeks, be very happy if you needed a break, I can arrange for you, ADSL etc will be available.
Yep, nice rebound from HOM!!! 8)
p.s. only for David?! :( :P
Just received an answer to my question back from Investor Relations of HOM!!! :)
Hi,
does Home Solutions of America also provides their services in the New Orleans area, that is badly hurt by the recent hurricane!?
Yours sincerely
...
Dear Investor,
HOM is gathering its resources and making plans to assist in any way it can. Until the regulatory agencies allow us in, we continue in the planning stages. As you might know we were able to lend support in the disasters that affected Florida and believe we will be able to do the same in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. We expect to release an announcement regarding our plans as soon as it is appropriate.
Investor relations
This kind of news from IBD-Investors Business Daily via Yahoo, on the 10 Highest Rated Stocks under $10, will help garner attention to this stock. Very nice to see! ;D
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/low912_05.html
A close above $4 near the HOD and a quick check at my weekly chart for HOM says I'm still holding ;) Interesting to see now what happens with the $4 support / resistance battle.
totally agree aussietrader,
I´m with you with SVA and HOM >:D
Quote from: gharknes on September 12, 2005, 03:34:59 PM
david, not sure you realise how many people where waiting for that reply, weekends are long especially when fridays are like the one we just had, things seem to be going north again which was what i expected, this stock seems to have established a base at 3.50, only negative news will send it below that level it seems........don't expect any, so the only way is up from here, you have have a following and we owe you big, i'm going to live in Thailand 2 weeks, will be watching this board intently.
post ediited, to much fluid intake :-)
I don't know if it was me dreaming or didn't I saw an invitation to go to Thailand last night? ;D
Thanks a lot, even though the intention was withdrawn. Never been to Asia.
I had to move my trendline just a bit higher, because now it is clear it was touched when the stock came down to $3.33 on Friday's session. HOM has recouped all it lost and is ready to give some more over the coming days, I believe.
Anyway, my trading plan is sound and simple. It is sound because it lets profits run and at the same time protects them. It is simple because I only need to check one thing everyday after the close: «did the stock close above the ascending trendline? It did, so I hold. It didn't, so I sell».
For today TL2 stands at $3.56 so I'll hold HOM.
just wanted to tell everyone hello, im new here. i found this site from the hom message board on yahoo. glad to see you guys like hom as well. im holding 40,000 since 2.18. i feel this is going to be a great growth story here. u guys have alot of good info here so keep up the good work. ill talk to you all soon. thanks
LOL David you where dreaming ::) :D
Actually you wheren't, and if you fancy a break over there drop me a message, problem is people might get a little edgy if they new you wheren't around
I was slightly lubricated last night when I posted and thought it was a bit OTT for this site so I edited.
Doji was formed? ::)
Quote from: etercnoc on September 13, 2005, 07:41:42 AM
just wanted to tell everyone hello, im new here. i found this site from the hom message board on yahoo. glad to see you guys like hom as well. im holding 40,000 since 2.18. i feel this is going to be a great growth story here. u guys have alot of good info here so keep up the good work. ill talk to you all soon. thanks
You're welcome etercnoc :)
Quote from: gharknes on September 13, 2005, 05:50:37 PM
LOL David you where dreaming ::) :D
Actually you wheren't, and if you fancy a break over there drop me a message, problem is people might get a little edgy if they new you wheren't around
I was slightly lubricated last night when I posted and thought it was a bit OTT for this site so I edited.
Lol, thanks for the invitation gharknes, I wish you have good vacations :)
Quote from: Se7en on September 13, 2005, 06:24:01 PM
Doji was formed? ::)
I don't think so Se7en, close = $4.13 > open = $4.10.
There's a reason why I set up simple trading plans: because I like to do most of my thinking
before I buy the stock, and then let the market decide the kindness of the trade (although I usually don't spend as much time as I would like studying a stock before I actually buy it, a trader must get used to act on incomplete information)
So, my plan is to hold HOM for as long as it closes above the ascending trendline on the chart, TL2. For tomorrow TL2 will stand at $3.66, so I will continue holding HOM.
David, so far your analysis has been awesome! Needless to say your graphics are awesome too! You have made me a believer of TA.
Thanks starfire :)
For today I'm just able to address the trading plan on every stock I own:
HOM = $3.85 > TL2 = $3.78 => HOLD HOM
But ...
IF CLOSE < $3.78 => SELL HOM
;D Home solutions opened a new office in New Oleans and mobilzed workers to Mississippi. GROWTH CONTINUES
On HOM - in light of the recent activities I now tend to think they have room until the $10-13range and I'm assuming a FY2006 runrate top line of around $100-120m (my target amounts to a PSR of around 3 on increased FY2006 sales) .. they should also continue to grow by acquisition
Thanks for your posts :)
We've had important news on HOM:
Home Solutions' Subsidiary Signs Agreement to Mobilize Workers to Participate in Hurricane Clean Up Effort (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1346433&guid=%7B03E808B5%2D5F4B%2D4EB3%2D8CBC%2DA2DD1661F79B%7D&symb=)
Many people were suspicious if HOM would profit something out of Katrina (strange sentence :-[), and here's the answer: they will, they're involved. In fact, on this press release the CEO says they will probably up revenue and earnings guidance because of this:
«As a result of the increase in work, which will initially involve removal of debris at many of the hurricane-affected locations prior to commencing restoration services, the Company today announced that it would discuss any impact on 2005 full-year guidance when it reports third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2005 in early November. The Company previously expected to generate record 2005 full-year revenue of $57.0 to $61.0 million, EBITDA of $9.0 to $9.9 million, and fully-diluted earnings per share of $0.18 to $0.20.»
But, as we've always said, HOM didn't need Katrina to see its share price rise, this will just provide higher flames for this stock on fire. Just take a look at the second quarter earnings report:
Home Solutions of America Reports Record Second Quarter Revenue and Net Income (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B947AB547%2DBDE6%2D41B6%2DB5D9%2D1859C79E88F7%7D)
These are outstanding results :o
Looking at the chart it is almost a sure thing that HOM will fly to new highs tomorrow, above $4.34 which is the previous high. Look at the volume today, stronger after touching the ascending trendline. Everything is set up perfectly for a big jump tomorrow, I'm already looking forward for Friday's update :D
Hello" Homies",
Well the stock and Davids charts still look great. I think we will see some more news in a week or 2 once they can get started on the water/mold damage clean ups. Msn has them as one of the top stocks with institutional buying over the last month and a 9 rating. Everything looks great and i feel we will see a pop to 5 on monday then might come back to the 4.50 range.
Another stock that caught my eye was NEXM. They have a 9 rating, instiu. interest moving up, just signed a contract with Novartis,stock has been turing up over the last 3 months and it just closed back at the 20 day ma on friday at 1.81. David if you have time to look at it i thank you in advance if not i understand.
Holding 40,000 HOM , as for now this looks like a keeper for a long time.
NEXM has to close above 1.91 for immediate stopping of slidding down. For it to be on fire again it has to knock out 2.36 with heavy volume.
Like the stock since made good quick trade on it.
Any technical and fundamental 'analysis' welcome.
40,000 HOM etercnoc? Great position you got there, I have just 5,000 shares. I hope you're diversified enough.
Considering NEXM, I just took a note here, when I'm looking for new stocks to buy for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio I'll consider it (this will probably happen tonight or tomorrow before the opening bell).
HOM has made a good run on Friday, although I was expecting a bigger rise, given the news. Anyway, I have a simple plan to follow so I don't want to lose myself (and my position) because I made the sin of thinking too much.
TL2 is rising fast, HOM needs to jump higher to keep up the pace with the trendline. For tomorrow TL2 will be standing at $4.02.
I will hold HOM for as long as it is set to close above TL2.
Thanks David for input on NEXM.
Growth investors conference this friday afternoon..I can't imagine they'll have anything but wonderful things to say.
HOM on fire again today, making new 52 wk highs. David - this was the first 3sf stock I chose to purchase, and I didn't get in quite as low as you, but it's been an awesome ride! I think HOM has legs for plenty more fun.
could be $7 by friday. just a guess!
Quote from: starfire on September 19, 2005, 04:29:05 PM
could be $7 by friday. just a guess!
Would be great and i hope you're right but i was thinking more of a slight pullback ...
QuoteTL2 is rising fast, HOM needs to jump higher to keep up the pace with the trendline.
Oh, jump she did, another 10% ! These news came out, nothing special:
Home Solutions of America to Present at Sanders Morris Harris Investor Growth Conference on Friday, September 23rd (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1346433&guid=%7B95AD0E07%2DA360%2D4AB2%2D82A2%2DDD1FE8B08740%7D&symb=)
This conference will bring more attention to this fast growing small cap, still with just $128M in market value.
My game on HOM is a simple one as you probably already know: I will hold for as long as the stock closes above TL2 on the chart below. For tomorrow that trendline will be standing at $4.14.
...and to think people were giving me the "told ya so" when I reloaded at 3.95 not too long ago (but not people on this board!)
This company is awesome, I relize that you'll be out if it closes below TL2, as I will probably do too...but my guess is that if and when that happens, you'll see a trend line more like TL1 develop and hold....for a long time.
1000 @ 2.58
1000 @ 2.90
500 @ 3.44
500 @ 3.95
OK, OK, so I'm not 'big time'....but with stocks like this, I will be...someday :)
Cheers,
Richard
THat's smart investing, as the stock proves its strength and growing, you add to the position. Thus limiting risk.
Add to your winners and sell the losers is the key.
I fear a small pullback tomorrow, but HOM should push through Friday with RITA approaching and a conference scheduled for Friday. I think we'll touch the trendline tomorrow, but I plan to hold through Friday unless the breakdown is confirmed two days in a row. GO HOM ;D
Quote from: saffeysite1 on September 19, 2005, 08:52:13 PM
THat's smart investing, as the stock proves its strength and growing, you add to the position. Thus limiting risk.
Add to your winners and sell the losers is the key.
Strong words from saffeysite, I agree with him in part. On practice I don't do this, because it would conflict with my very simple money management rule of not owning more than 6.66% of the portfolio in one single stock. To be full invested I need to hold at least 15 different stocks and this diversification indeed limits risk.
If someone does like saffeysite says in the limit he would hold just a couple or just one stock, and that would be very risky, even if that stock had a strong bullish trend. It seems wise to do what he says but I think that would put too much pressure on the investor, betting too much of his capital in just a few stocks (as he was selling losers and adding to winners, instead of looking for new stocks like I do, the winners would get more and more percentage of the capital). I realize that it is difficult enough to let the profits run, even more if you invest more and more on a rising stock.
But this is an open discussion, I'm willing to hear other's views and debate them. Perhaps we should start a thread on Money Management on the Members Board? The problem is I'm finding it difficult to stay on top with all the updates (got 17 to do today) and I'm still not organized enough to go deeper into other subjects (but I will be).
Anyway, thanks for your posts, always an interesting read and food for thought :D
Considering HOM, another 8% rise today. Some people took profits today, and maybe they've done well. I don't think so, not because the stock won't go down over the short term (I'm not smart enough to know that), but because I consider they're not following a sound trading plan if you ask me.
I've made the mistake of selling VPHM too soon and then needed to chase it higher. I'm not going to make this same mistake with HOM and my plan is to hold for as long as the stock closes above TL2. For tomorrow that trendline will stand at $4.26.
Still looking great. Would love to see 5 hold , many are thinking big news on friday. Still holding my 40,000 shares. Its really rising in a controlled manner.Also did anyone see the news for NASI this afternoon. Looks like huge news and also looks like a low entry for this low float stock. GOOD NIGHT ALL.
David,
Certainly you have a valid point, but we came to our decisions in very different ways. I tend to weight my portfolio based on how much information I have.
If I were to do the standard DD and look at the TA, I would probably indeed just stick to my original 1,000 shares.
To be honest, I didn't look at the charts much when i bought at 2.58 and 2.90...that was before I found this great place and the great TA input here as well.
But I'm familiar with HOM. I know their products and services, I know their markets, and perhaps most importantly, I know a few people that work there. Not execs or anything, just some regular marketing guys...they love their jobs.
Good business model, good growth, good profits, happy investors, and happy employees...that is a strong model for success...and that is why HOM is overweight in my portfolio...
Down to the nitty gritty, we don't disagree about diversification, but 6.66% of my portfolio would be somewhere right between 'jack' and 'squat', so I have to use a different set of rules. I diversify based upon how much information I have, and the quality of that information.
I readily admit that I could be 100% wrong in this approach, so I always look for others feedback and insights.
...and if it turns out that i AM 100% wrong? Well, at least I'm lucky! :) :) :)
Cheers,
Richard
Hi Dave,
Thanks for the work on HOM and DESC.. I've done well on your suggestions ( still holding both ). I have owned VPHM since $5.64 and enjoyed your analysis. Please verify that you have received my $300 donation for 1 year. You're worth it.. keep up the good work!
Dory99
Looks like a Doji today and not a good one ...
Do we think this is a time to add shares - Rita is going to crush another area ( :'( very sad about) but will be a great opp for this company. Any thoughts?
Thanks in Advance
Coolwood 8)
Quote from: Dory99 on September 21, 2005, 09:32:38 AM
Hi Dave,
Thanks for the work on HOM and DESC.. I've done well on your suggestions ( still holding both ). I have owned VPHM since $5.64 and enjoyed your analysis. Please verify that you have received my $300 donation for 1 year. You're worth it.. keep up the good work!
Dory99
Thanks Dory99, since you're now an Honours Member, Ramsburg has processed your payment. Thanks a lot and let me work hard to help you grow your stock market performance :)
Some director at HOM sold 100,000 shares over the last 3 trading days, which he had bought at $1.42. Not a sin and nothing to worry about, there are a lot of reasons for an insider to sell some shares, most of them are irrelevant to future performance of the stock price. I believe this is the case here with HOM.
Anyway I know what I have to do, and that is not to think too much and just stick to the plan. For tomorrow TL2 will be standing at $4.38 and I will hold the stock for as long as it closes above TL2. I won't try to sell at the top, not even sell to buy on reactions.
Hold for as long as the trend remains bullish is the name of the game with HOM. RULE 31 says: As Long as a Stock is Acting Right, Don't Rush to Take Profits, additionally RULE 46 says: The Smarter You Are, The Longer it Takes.
Was watching it go up and up since I sold it on the 6th :(
Gues I'm not very good at trading :-[ But yesterday I did manage to get in at the low of $ 4,90 and I'm proud :)
David, could you explain to me why in some cases you decide to bring in a second TL and how thatholds up for you to TL1?
Thanks in advance.
Amarens
QuoteDavid, could you explain to me why in some cases you decide to bring in a second TL and how thatholds up for you to TL1?
Well if the trend accelerates I need to draw a trendline with a steeper slope to serve as a guideline, since the first one was left "on the floor".
Good luck trading HOM Amarens :)
September 22nd was indeed a bad day for the 3 SOF Portfolio. HOM, my best holding, dived 8.7%. Yet, the trend is still bullish, so I still hold the stock.
I'm bearish on the general market but been burned before because of changing specific stocks trading plans because of the general market bias. Anyway, TL2 is my safety net on HOM, it will be standing at $4.5 tomorrow, I hope TL2 supports price as it rises. The minute the trendline stops acting as support I will kiss HOM goodbye :-*
Hi David,
11 of my 13 stocks are in red today. The general market is pretty bearish because of the uncertainy of Rita. The stocks that have risen a lot recently lost the most today. even though NASDAQ and Dow are actually.
I have 80% of my money in biotech, oil & gas, and disaster/home restoration (HOM, and XENC.OB, which is the one I sold today after 60% gain in two days). Hopefully, Rita will slow down and we will ride out of this down market next week. My other hope is the UBS global life conference on Monday will help SVA, RITA and VHPM tomorrow. We shall see.
-Valueseeker
presentation today:
ome Solutions of America to Webcast Today's Presentation at Sanders Morris Harris Investor Growth Conference
Friday September 23, 8:00 am ET
DALLAS, Sept. 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Home Solutions of America, Inc. (Amex: HOM - News), a niche provider of specialty residential services, announced today that the Company will webcast the presentation that Chief Financial Officer Rick O'Brien is scheduled to make at the Sanders Morris Harris Investor Growth Conference today at 11:30 am eastern time. The conference is being held at the Roosevelt Hotel, located at 45 E. 45th Street, in New York.
Interested parties may listen to the presentation live or via replay at http://www.wsw.com/webcast/smh/hom/
Home Solutions is a niche provider of specialty residential services including Restoration and Specialty Interior Services. The Company has operations in the California, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina markets through its four subsidiaries, Cornerstone Building and Remodeling, Southern Exposure, P.W. Stephens and Fiber Seal Systems. Cornerstone is a leading supplier and installer of granite materials for kitchens and baths to national home centers, as well as national builders and remodeling companies, in the southeastern United States. Southern Exposure and related companies is a provider of cabinet and countertop installation services in the Florida marketplace. P.W. Stephens provides mold and asbestos remediation services, and fire and water restoration services in California and Florida, and Fiber Seal Systems is a national franchise of cleaning and fabric protection businesses.
updated chart:
Quote from: valueseeker on September 23, 2005, 12:48:14 AM
Hi David,
11 of my 13 stocks are in red today. The general market is pretty bearish because of the uncertainty of Rita. The stocks that have risen a lot recently lost the most today. even though NASDAQ and Dow are actually.
I have 80% of my money in biotech, oil & gas, and disaster/home restoration (HOM, and XENC.OB, which is the one I sold today after 60% gain in two days). Hopefully, Rita will slow down and we will ride out of this down market next week. My other hope is the UBS global life conference on Monday will help SVA, RITA and VHPM tomorrow. We shall see.
-Valueseeker
Actually I'm quite bearish on oil and oil stocks going forward Valueseeker. Everybody expects some disruption in supply from RITA, yet the Oil price is down today. The talk is that demand for oil is slowing down fast - and that's bearish talk.
Technically the oil futures contract seems to be developing the second shoulder of an H&S pattern.
But your other holdings, out of oil, seem fine. Good luck Valueseeker :)
This stock has enormous potential! And that is without any storm clean-up work. Their conference today was apparently very impressive. Lots of new kitchen cabinets are going to be needed down south!
Only a few more days to make your donation!
11:45 HOM Home Solutions: Notes from Sanders Morris Harris conference (4.80 -0.03)
On conference call at Sanders Morris Harris conference, co notes that it has established additional restoration operations near New Orleans in response to Hurricane Katrina. Co's focus is on Kitchen & Bath interior services. Co's Southern Exposure unit has exclusive supply relationship with Centex in new home kitchen cabinet and countertop fabrication and installation. Co's Conernstone unit provides granite fabrication and installation services to Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW). Co notes that its Home Depot account grows from 20 stores in 2004 to 125 by yr-end 2005. Lowes rollout anticipated to grow from 0 stores to 200 in 18 months... In New Orleans, co expects to have a major roll in the initial restoration (which could last a very long time) and expects to be a part of the buildback as well. Co says in its 2005 guidance, it has not included the impact from Katrina revs yet; believes significant oppty for co, not only for the qtr, but for 2006 and beyond.
That sounds very promising!! :D
Excellent day for HOM.Good come back.
Nice white candle after a red candle yesterday shows strentgh imo.
And its not the first time it does that.Same thing happened a few days ago.I cant post the chart so maybe David can if he agrees with me.If he disagrees i would welcome the input to see where we stan.Thanks..
Sent my donation in :D
Thanks for your inputs Dave. I actually don't have any oil stock at this moment, I was in NLG (Michael's pick), RER.TO, and CHAR.OB and made good money on all of these in the summer. CHK and KCS are natural gas companies. They do track with oil a bit. The difference here is that in North America, we are getting close to the end of the driving season, and getting close to the heating season (most of the houses are natural gas powered for heating). NG stock usually go up from November and peak in March. NG price went from $5 to $13 while oil went from $45->$65. I am holding my two natural gas stocks till the deep winter here. :-)
------------------------------------------------
Actually I'm quite bearish on oil and oil stocks going forward Valueseeker. Everybody expects some disruption in supply from RITA, yet the Oil price is down today. The talk is that demand for oil is slowing down fast - and that's bearish talk.
Technically the oil futures contract seems to be developing the second shoulder of an H&S pattern.
But your other holdings, out of oil, seem fine. Good luck Valueseeker
Thanks for your posts and donations, I'm leaving my other business almost completely (just hired two more employees to do some paper work that I used to do myself) to be fully dedicated to 3 Stocks on Fire, because I love this project, I love trading and I love to be a stock market analyst. So I want to thank you all for this opportunity :)
With so much love in the air, what can I do to HOM but this :-* :-* :-*
The stock went down close to support again, and again it bounced back with rage. HOM refuses to go down, bulls are just too eager to buy, since fundamentals are awesome ! You see, revenues and profits were up sharply (and the stock was moving higher with volume above average) even before Katrina or Rita were known to happen. They just added more fire to the stock.
I don't want to think too much about fundamentals because I have a very simple trading plan to follow. That plan is to hold for as long as the stock closes above the ascending trendline, which for tomorrow's session will be standing at $4.62 (rising fast, $0.12 per trading day).
I know someday HOM will make a big correction, so what I'm expecting is for it to run far away from the trendline and then dive to meet it somewhere in the future, just like VPHM did when it first hit $13 (then it came down to $9.70 to meet the trendline, before a new advance phase began).
Perhaps if this action happens I will take profits to buy back at a lower level, but only IF this situation happens, and that's not the case now.
The trading plan for tomorrow is to hold the stock, unless it closes below $4.62, but I don't think that will be the case.
Hey David,
So may people on the yahoo HOM board are talking about ZENX. They've almost become joined at the hip. I wonder if you have any opinion on it.
I actually bought ZENX and sold it for 60% profit after 2 days. There are a few differences between HOM & ZENX:
- HOM was quite profitable & growing rapidly before Katrina
- ZENX has government contract after Katrina for $10M, then increased to $20M, and then $60M, which is a lot for a company with 80M shares and $1.08/shr
- HOM seems to be quite diversified in terms of its home services, while ZENX's main expertise is fixing the roofs
- ZENX's corporate governance is a bit worrying to me (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ZENX.OB)
- THere will be continous demands for HOM's services, but I am not sure about ZENX.
I am a longer term holder for HOM and sold ZENX on the way up. I will continue to monitor ZENX and buy the dip if there is a big one. I'd be interested in hearing other people's comments as well.
-Valueseeker
In the last 18 trading days, HOM was only down 3 of those days at the close, and in 2 of the 3 it closed higher the next day.
Those waiting for a pull back may be waiting a while. By the way in those 18 days the stock advanced from $2.74 to 5.24.
There are not too many stocks that are in this league.
Hot off the press:
8)
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HOM Trade
News 5.01 -0.23
Cornerstone Industries International Inc.: Increased Orders
September 26, 2005 13:26:01 (ET)
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Sep 26, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Cornerstone Industries International Inc. (the "Company") is pleased to announce that its wholly owned operating subsidiary, Cornerstone Granite and Marble Wholesale Inc. ("CGMW"), has increased its orders and backlog by more than 30% due to the strong demand for building materials resulting from the recent hurricanes Katrina and Rita, in Florida and New Orleans.
"Our exclusive supply agreement with Home Solutions of America Inc. (HOM, Trade) has given us an opportunity to be one of the first companies to supply building materials for the rebuilding and clean up efforts currently underway in New Orleans and Florida by Home Solutions of America," stated Anthony Leeber Jr., President. "With no end in sight of when the need for building materials for the hurricane damaged area will slow down, we are in the process of dramatically increasing our inventory to handle the increased demand."
Home Solutions of America currently has over 100 crews working in the rebuilding and clean up efforts and is in the process of sending as many crews as possible to the damaged areas as they become available. "We feel our company, Home Solutions of America, will have a substantially increased need for materials for the next 2-3 years due to the extensive damage from the recent hurricanes," stated Frank Fradella, Chairman and CEO. "Our exclusive supply agreement with CGMW gives us the ability to have access to large quantities of world class building materials immediately which gives us the ability to be one of the only companies in the forefront of the rebuilding effort."
"While the Company's facilities were not affected by the recent storms in the South Eastern United States, we are saddened by the devastation these hurricanes have caused in our home areas and the surrounding areas. The Company will continue to do everything in its ability to assist in a quick and complete rebuilding of our neighboring communities," stated Mr. Leeber Jr.
CGMW is a Florida corporation which imports and supplies, on a wholesale basis, raw granite and marble slabs, sinks, tiles, hardware and fabrication supplies. Cornerstone offers competitive pricing to U.S. based retailers on raw slabs and stone fabrication tools and supplies.
Home Solutions of America is a niche provider of specialty residential services including Restoration and Specialty Interior Services. The Company has operations in the California, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina markets through its four subsidiaries, Cornerstone Building and Remodeling, Southern Exposure, P.W. Stephens and Fiber Seal Systems. Cornerstone is a leading supplier and installer of granite materials for kitchens and baths to national home centers, as well as national builders and remodeling companies, in the southeastern United States. Southern Exposure and related companies is a provider of cabinet and countertop installation services in the Florida marketplace. P.W. Stephens provides mold and asbestos remediation services, and fire and water restoration services in California and Florida, and Fiber Seal Systems is a national franchise of cleaning and fabric protection businesses.
The head office of CGMW is located at 5642 Enterprise Parkway, Fort Myers, FL 33905. Its public company and investor relations office is located at Suite 1304 - 925 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6C 3L2.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
BBC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC.
ALY B. MAWJI, DIRECTOR
The TSX Venture Exchange has neither approved nor disapproved the contents of this press release.
BBC Capital Management Inc.
SOURCE: BBC Capital Management Inc.
BBC Capital Management Inc.
Mr. Aly B. Mawji
Director
(604) 812-7468
[email protected] www.cgmw.com
Copyright Business Wire 2005
A question from a newbie here,
looking at the chart, i see a Diamont formation building. Is this right and when, is it bullish ?
Thank you and some greetings from germany to all :D
Hasadeur
Guten Morgen Hasadeur,
Don't know about the diamond you are looking for, in fact to quote Alexander Elder "Diamonds are prime examples or Rorschach type patterns....their trading usefulness is minimal"
Right now HOM is consolidating around $5, in fact it is fighting somewhat to turn $5 resistance into $5 support a battle between bulls and bears taking place here for sure.
Good luck
Quote from: AussieTrader on September 27, 2005, 03:59:21 AM
Right now HOM is consolidating around $5, in fact it is fighting somewhat to turn $5 resistance into $5 support a battle between bulls and bears taking place here for sure.
What is encouraging about this battle is that it is looking similar to the consolidation that happened at the $4.00 level. And it is bouncing off the 10dma very nicely. :)
News for a HOM supplier: Cornerstone Industries International Inc.: Increased Orders (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1346433&guid=%7BCF8B82B7%2D3D9B%2D439F%2DA8FD%2D09C870CCC5CF%7D&symb=)
What's funny about this is that HOM's stock was rising before Katrina happened, and in this case nobody in their perfect mind can say the market was already discounting it :) Fundamentals were improving before Katrina and Rita, and now the company is very busy taking new orders and putting up their revenues and profit guidance for investors.
But I want to stay objective here, and the stock is at a dangerous point. TL2 for today is standing at $4.76, I will take profits if the stock is set to close below this level. I hope TL2 supports HOM again and the stock runs away to new highs again. We'll see, the market always knows better.
Waited so long to get back in. TA was still great, as is the news. Now that dip seems not to have been the lowest one :'(
What's up with HOM today ???
Up HOM up!!! (Some positive thinking might help ;))
May we change the rules in HOM's case? ???
David
I mean - the volume is low, may be it's just a buying opportunity.
The company is looking great from every side, isn't it?
Or I'm falling in love with HOM? :)
Best,
Vova
I followed David's plan and sold everything at 4.60$.
No, you didnt follow David's rules for trading. He said if HOM closes lower then 4.76 today or looks like it will. We still have 3 hours to go. I sold 20,000 of hom at 5 and still hold 30,000 from the 1.85 range. I do believe in Davids charting but i also believe Hom will be much higher in 6 months and i mean much higher.
Quote from: etercnoc on September 27, 2005, 01:18:54 PM
No, you didnt follow David's rules for trading. He said if HOM closes lower then 4.76 today or looks like it will. We still have 3 hours to go. I sold 20,000 of hom at 5 and still hold 30,000 from the 1.85 range. I do believe in Davids charting but i also believe Hom will be much higher in 6 months and i mean much higher.
Yep, still 2hrs and 37 mins to go, but it LOOKS like it will close below 4.76$ ...
Look again - closely - David said if HOM is "set to close" below 4.76 ---- so it is up to the individual to decide when it is set to close below 4.76 - one minute before the market closes or one hour or four hours - --- - -- it is looking to me like it will not recover to 4.76 - ---but I will wait until I believe it is set to close below 4.76 --- I will take Davids advice.
Quote from: nberski on September 27, 2005, 01:51:19 PM
so it is up to the individual to decide when it is set to close below 4.76 - one minute before the market closes or one hour or four hours - --- - -- it is looking to me like it will not recover to 4.76 -.
Agree, I'm out at break even- better than a loss.
If I were long from less than 4 I would likely hold. I think this is just tech selling in a crappy market, But I'm trading here.
there is a general market downturn today, I see this as a buying oportunity in the next few days, everything on my tracker is red today....jmo but i still like the future growth and fundamentals of HOM
IT BROKE THE TREND LINE. That is the basis of trading here, it seems. Like the 50dma or anything else, a person has to have a sell signal. It is down big on high volume. If not the trendline or the moving average, what is YOUR sell signal????? I am happy now with a 50% profit. Should it recover, I'll be happy to rejoin the party. This has been in a freefall for a week. Even the good news yesterday had no impact on the stock. In the mean time, I think this is done for the moment.
Wow - what a pull back. :'( Think everyone is getting off the boat. Think I will wait another day or so. :o
That was ugly.
8)
This is so aggravating. The rule: don't let a profit become a loss. Well what do you do, take that small gain instead of that large one you once had, or let it dip red to hopefully make that come back?
I see no way of this stock raising to Daves keep line, so I will follow his lead; as his is the only proven tool of real success. However, days like this makes me want to stop trading for a bit. I know that is a sin to say, but everything is down, and that takes me back to the rule: don't let a profit become a loss? So once again.... Do I sell everything? Does that rule not counter the hold and wait and patience rule? So I sell hom with a small profit, and sad to see it go, it was a fun ride :'(
Down 14.81% ???
I didn't sell today - guess I'll hope for tomorrow to be better :(
Oh, well...
I sold half. I don't trust a sell-off that has no rationale about it, and I'm curious about tomorrow.
As to a "general market downturn": Dow and S&P were up, but NASDAQ was a little down. Decliners outnumbered rising stocks by 18 to 13.
It does seem that the SOF picks are mostly among the decliners today and yesterday. It may be that we are tilted a bit too much toward gold, which happens to be down today.
Seems energy stocks are doing okay (including AMEP). My holdings in DESC and KFX helped save the day for me, but most profitable of all is my BIDU short.
It seems possible that we are at the beginning of a bear market; if so, holding a short position or two may be the best way to hedge the general market, IMO.
I'll be looking for a good entry point, i guess David will say something about this.
Btw, i've sent you my donation!
Forgot to add to my earlier post, I no longer hold HOM, I sold it a few days ago, all I said was it could provide a good entry point in the next few days, my radar is HOMING on HOM for a while yet.
good luck everyone
Quote from: robt on September 27, 2005, 04:38:28 PM
It seems possible that we are at the beginning of a bear market; if so, holding a short position or two may be the best way to hedge the general market, IMO.
September is traditionally the weakest month in a year for Nasdaq stocks.
I can bet that there will be a big year-end rally. This may happen starting in the middle of October and lasted to December.
The NASDAQ may touch 2000 and SOXX (semi idex) may touch 440 during the process before rebounding. That will provide another golden opportunity to buy tech stocks.
For HOM, because its fundamental is good, this is a normal profit taking.
But profit taking may take months before resuming its uptrend. For momentum stocks,
quick raise in stock price may often lead to quick down in its price.
So, keeping your profit is the most important thing. The most annoying thing in investment is to see your big gain slipped away after many days of effort.
It was difficult and easy at the same time to sell HOM today. Difficult because I was expecting higher gains. easy because I bought @2.95. HOM has been a fun trade and the best trade thus far, using David's picks. Sold @ 4.25.
Thanks David
Well, HOM didn't go as well as hoped today, sadly! :( But still made a profit on this one over all, which still fine by me.
this from HOM message board and sums up my own thoughts,
"To answer your question if HOM should trade at 5$ I say it sure can. However I listen to the market more then the numbers as the market will reflect those numbers anyway and at the moment it is telling us that it does not want to be at 5$.
I belive that the sell off today is more as a result of *to high to soon* and a breach of technicals then it is about any fundamentals that you point out (which are great).
Keep in mind this company was trading for under 2$ just 2 months ego. Problem is its mostly retail traders involved, stock still has almost non institutional ownership and it will take some time, possibly a quarter or two for HOM to prove them selves and gain trust with institutions.
Stock has come down quite a bit, but it is always smart to wait and see how things play out instead of jumping in, as they say, "what looks cheap can be even cheaper and what looks to expensive tends to go higher"
I am out now but will be looking to get back in, just never in any rush to do so, as it proved to be the wrong move many times over.
lastly we are here to make money, all of us, I could pump and say many things but reality is stock is down almost 15% today, and that can not be taken lightly.
Wish everyone best of luck, HOM will be back at some point just wish I knew when :)"
Well HOM dumped hard and I don't think any of us figured out why ???
Many have sold out of this one today, but I'm not too sure where this will go tomorrow. The main issue is that HOM slammed right through David's sharp ascending trendline, which is the clear sell signal. This would be alright if it hadn't dropped another 50 cents below it :-[
But I just want to mention a couple of things. One is that the last big gainer here, VPHM, which had a very similar set up to HOM, was also sold because it broke a technical support line (though there it was David's call on the 9 ema), only to push on to new highs shortly after. VPHM, like HOM, has a strong fundamental story that underpins this rise, and (with its volume, recent news and support) HOM could easily follow VPHMs suit.
Now technically, while the sharp linear ascending trendline has been broken, there is still a valid ascending trendline when we look at the log chart. At the moment this stands fairly low (and lower than most of us want to hold this) at around $3.50, but if we are seeing the beginning of a retracement as opposed to a single day of heavy profit taking, then this is around the level I would expect us to retrace to. We have also had a cross over of the MACD and 9 ema today, which could signal a retracement on this one. Don't forget that HOM has been rising very sharply, and has gotten a long way away from this trendline over recent weeks.
I suppose all I am saying is keep a close eye on this one, and if you are out for now, know where and when to get back in, because it is going MUCH MUCH higher ;D
Great points made by all. Although I would like to hear what David thinks I think we all know he will stick to his trading plan and sell.
I am thinking of adding at this level. I agree with the idea that HOM is setting up like VPHM.
Good luck all
aix
I agree, because of the fundamentals, it will find support at the secondary trend line which is about $3.50. I sold out per David's analysis but looking to re-enter.
I was away from home all day and came back to find this shambles. I will either be a raggy bag holder or lucky by default if it recovers. I have to hold it now. (I see also that EYII hit .18 briefly, which if I had seen I would have happily sold.) Ah, well. Good thng it's only money.
Prfsr Hal
Just one more point here, look very carefully at HOM'S chart, it seems to take these sudden drops on a cyclic basis, I bought HOM at 3.50 (a late joiner) watched it rise to the 4.25 area over a few days then drop like a stone back to the 3.50 area very very quickly indeed, I made a post here at the time, next day it recovered back to the 4 area (again very quickly) then continued to rise to its current level.....then slam it happened again, now I could be wrong here but I have a gut feel this is a repeat performance, we could see a sharp rise back to the high 4's over the next 2 days, the only difference on this occasion is the general market environment (turning bearish) it's a tough call, the stock has broken davids trend line and that was a sell indicator at 4.76, that is not to say that david doesn't have an entry point when it dives to this level, I felt very temped to buy this at the close yesterday but decided to wait and see because of general market conditions, I also wanted to hear davids take on this. sorry for my none technical view.
good luck all
QuoteAussieTrader Right now HOM is consolidating around $5, in fact it is fighting somewhat to turn $5 resistance into $5 support a battle between bulls and bears taking place here for sure.
Bears won the $5 fight, I stopped out around $4.4. No problem I have a 50%+ gain and can look to get back in if the chart sets up right.
HOM closed at the LOD which is never a good technical sign. I would expect to see consolidation around the $4 zone now and await the averages / support to re-position. Out of interest take a look at the AOB chart and then HOM chart, both had a bull bear fight at $5 with spike action through it. Both succombed to selling pressure and fell back hard. Their charts are very similar.
A word of caution, a lot of strong charts are turning over right now. HOM fundamentals haven't changed, just the chart.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on September 27, 2005, 08:08:58 PM
Well HOM dumped hard and I don't think any of us figured out why ???
But I just want to mention a couple of things. One is that the last big gainer here, VPHM, which had a very similar set up to HOM, was also sold because it broke a technical support line (though there it was David's call on the 9 ema), only to push on to new highs shortly after. VPHM, like HOM, has a strong fundamental story that underpins this rise, and (with its volume, recent news and support) HOM could easily follow VPHMs suit.
Now technically, while the sharp linear ascending trendline has been broken, there is still a valid ascending trendline when we look at the log chart. At the moment this stands fairly low (and lower than most of us want to hold this) at around $3.50, but if we are seeing the beginning of a retracement as opposed to a single day of heavy profit taking, then this is around the level I would expect us to retrace to.
Applaud ScottishTrader! You wrote down my thoughts exactly. Actually I asked David a couple of days ago why he brings in a second TL and how that relates to the first one. He answered the first part of the question but not the second. In case of HOM I've kept TL1 in place, even though I got back in very late. I believe the market being right in this case that it corrected the (maybe too) fast rise of HOM to go back to TL1. Which for the ones that had a profit would have been a good day to take profit and get back in at a lower level ;)
I will hold on unless it looks like HOM will close lower than TL1. I will keep in the back of my mind the bearish market right now. Which does not give me the pleasants of feelings :-[.
Guess David will be doing a lot of selling today.
Amarens
Great posts here on HOM's thread. Well, I've sold out 1 hour before the close at $4.35 (still made a 46% profit), when it was perfectly clear the stock would close below TL2.
It looks like in this case it would have been better to stop intraday when the stock broke TL2 on the downside. Or looking to sell near the highs. I figure that since I make these updates everyday I can make an effort of trying to be more accurate at selling, since I also didn't like to let an 80% profit turn into just 46% in two days ::) Anyway, of course this was better than losing :)
The comparison with VPHM doesn't make any technical sense now. You see, VPHM took off from $1.67 with a trendline supporting price. That trendline had a $0.12 advance per day slope. VPHM is at $20 now and NEVER closed below that trendline.
That was not the case with HOM, it couldn't hold such an inclined trendline.
I see no fundamental reason for yesterday's decline, but I believe the market always knows better. I will be looking to buy back the stock at TL1, which for today will come at $3.01, rising just $0.03 per trading day.
Good luck to those who continue to hold :)
Congratulations, David. 46% still is a very nice gain. Applause.
Your TL1 looks look the lead-in phase of a Bump and Run Pattern; Your TL2, which was broken yesterday, the bump phase. In the link below, the rally in HOM looks very similar to the sample chart presented.
Here's the pattern, if anyone wants to read it:
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/images/barr-intl.png
David,
Just a thought but maybe you could put a stop loss on these stocks and the loss you would be taking would obviously be less.(even though HOM gave us gains either way but a stop loss would have saved maybe some 15-25 cents)
Maybe you could put a stop loss that is a little below the trend line to give it a little lee way.
Just a thought.
Believe the stop loss for HOM was clearly stablished between TL1 and TL2
and RITA fortunatelly wasn't as destructive as expected, therefore some of us got out
on monday. This was an excellent pick and with high profits for all, just like VPHM.
Applauds again for David. :D
jorgegr
I didn't get around to sell, and it was not fun to watch the dip today! :(
Fortunately it's up again now, and I hope it will continue that way.
Crossing my fingers ;)
Cheers.
Not a happy camper with HOM >:(
Saw the drop first thing, and thought we were going to tank all the way to $3.50 today, and ended up selling close to the low of the day, wiping most of my profits off the board >:( Wish I had slept in!
Still up tho, always gotta look at the bright side ;)
I was with you cumulina, wanting to see what today would bring, but unfortunately got caught into the panic selling trap - gotta learn how to control that one. :-\
Now I just have to follow my plan for re-entry and look for that retrace back to $3.50, but filling todays gap looks promising for a turnaround :-X Anyone else with technical thoughts of where this may go short term? May have to just see where it is trying to close today.
Hi again,ScottishTrader.
You panic-sell..........I panic-hold! ;D
I'll sell you mine at $4.75. (My entry price is 4.70)
How about that for a deal? :D
...oh: my gold-stock are all up today. Didn't get around to sell those either ;)
Cheers!
my re-entry point on this stock will be 3.50-60 because this was original support ,old resistance was at 4.20 if it doesn't break through i would expect it to drop, not sure if we will see that price again but i have learned to be patient.
good luck all
Quote from: David Randolph on September 28, 2005, 07:27:22 AM
Great posts here on HOM's thread. Well, I've sold out 1 hour before the close at $4.35 (still made a 46% profit), when it was perfectly clear the stock would close below TL2.
It looks like in this case it would have been better to stop intraday when the stock broke TL2 on the downside. Or looking to sell near the highs. I figure that since I make these updates everyday I can make an effort of trying to be more accurate at selling, since I also didn't like to let an 80% profit turn into just 46% in two days ::) Anyway, of course this was better than losing :)
The comparison with VPHM doesn't make any technical sense now. You see, VPHM took off from $1.67 with a trendline supporting price. That trendline had a $0.12 advance per day slope. VPHM is at $20 now and NEVER closed below that trendline.
That was not the case with HOM, it couldn't hold such an inclined trendline.
I see no fundamental reason for yesterday's decline, but I believe the market always knows better. I will be looking to buy back the stock at TL1, which for today will come at $3.01, rising just $0.03 per trading day.
Good luck to those who continue to hold :)
David, perhaps the downfall was enhanced by a downtrend in the housing market.
well HOM broke through my original 4.20 resistance level and on heavy volume, I get the feeling this has got away from me already, it is something I did not expect, I'm still out and will wait for the dust to settle in the markets and in HOM before I consider buying again......god could that be the wrong thing :-)
PS I still hold DROOY cos I think gold will be at 500 before christmas, I watched live trades for the last 3 days and observed some massive buying going on,,,,,,,,,,in the millions on single trades......someone knows something that few are privy too, there is trickerygoing on with gold and I think it will surge towards 500 before christamas
hi,
i think it is over sold and will come back pretty soon, look for a good day tomorrow.
here is the chart with the hammer today. if not tomorrow i don't think it will be held down for long.
Agree. Hammer shape is clear. I think what happened was someone took at look at HOM above $5 and decided to short. It's also the end of the month so they want to keep it down as low as possible to maximize the profits for this quarter, and they should cover tomorrow/Friday. It's a bit dangerous to short HOM as news/contract can come out anytime.
I had to sell AOB today to protect a large profit. I think the story was the same as HOM. However, since there is typically little news for AOB before next earning release (mid November), I think the shorts maybe able to keep it down longer & lower (than HOM).
I would suggest for HOM a soon rebound if my 2 supports lines confirms to be strong enough:
1) Old resistance line changed to support line at 4.14
2) Exponentiel support line: EMA(20)-->4.16
Any others opinions?
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050929/dath012.html?.v=29
A large rebound in pre-market
hi,
check out hom in the pre market,!
maxi
I know, sold out yesterday near the low and its killing me >:D
Gotta hate whoever shook the tree...
i gor stopped out at 4.65 when it fell a couple days ago.
Got back in at 3.85.And now the stock is heading higher again:especially with this news:
Home Solutions Expands Disaster Remediation Infrastructure Through Acquisition of Assets from Florida Environmental Remediation Services
Thursday September 29, 9:10 am ET
Company Raises 2005 Full-Year EPS Guidance to $0.23 to $0.25 From Previous Range of $0.18 to $0.20
double earning - since 3/4 of the year is gone, all the earning increase comes to Q4.
quadruple workforce - 180 people now, acquired 450 people
Quite a battle there in the first 30 min. I would like to ride that one, but I have no confidence in HOM's direction.
I really like this pick by David and did not sell following David's steps. I know nothing about technical, that is why David's insight is very helpful to me.
HOM is the kind of stock Warren Buffet would love. Simple business, I understand. Making great money, I like. Great management, very important to me. Good acquisation, low multiples, accretive to rev. and earnings immediately.
The news they issued today is just factastic: for the first half they ahd rev. of 25.4M and earning of 0.08/share. The guidance they issued today for the full year would be rev. 75M and earning of 0.25/share. This means for the 2nd half, they will be doing ~50M rev. and 0.17/share. Wow! What will be for next year? Rev. at 100M and earning of 0.35/share should be the least.
All in all, this is a fundamentally very solid company, I plan to hold long term. The fundamental of the company is why I did not sell yesterday or the day before.
Jump in before you will regret it in the next few day, SmartWrasse.
I thing who ever left the boat, is dying to jump back again seeing is previous momentum!
Good luck to all!
Back in at 4.61$!
Go go go go HOM!!! :)
Nice to see you in Se7en,
dont forget to establish a exit rule!
The way Dave does it for the 3SOF portfolio!
Now than HOM is out of his portfolio, you will have to follow it yourself with your own rule!
Good luck!
Hi,
Suggest a word of caution. It is entirely possible that this news was known 'behind the scenes' & was the cause for the selloff recently. Rarely does this sort of announcement lead to accumulation. Often it leads to distribution.
Set you stops & beware for further tumbling if 'upside volume' dries up.
willie
Bought my small chunk back mid-day slightly less than my previous sale price ::)
I like the uptick on volume. We'll see.
Anyone think this was a short attack?
Who knows what tomorrow will bring. But it sure feels better holding it today than it has for the past few days. A great big WHEW!
Prfsr Hal
I need to choose if I am going between AOB and HOM and I choose HOM due to news that shift its fundamental. Go HOM Go...
GLTA
That was a very wise move Tugsinav,
HOM was chose in 3SOF portfolio for its fondamental 2 weeks ago, since Dave dump it for technical raison, now the stock rebound from lowers supports lines, I feel it is still a very promissing stock IMHO!
And welkom in our HOM thread!
The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Kicking Pattern . This is a bullish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. Though it is highly reliable confirmation is still recommended.
:)
Quote from: AussieTrader on September 28, 2005, 04:25:57 AM
QuoteAussieTrader Right now HOM is consolidating around $5, in fact it is fighting somewhat to turn $5 resistance into $5 support a battle between bulls and bears taking place here for sure.
Bears won the $5 fight, I stopped out around $4.4. No problem I have a 50%+ gain and can look to get back in if the chart sets up right.
HOM closed at the LOD which is never a good technical sign. I would expect to see consolidation around the $4 zone now and await the averages / support to re-position. Out of interest take a look at the AOB chart and then HOM chart, both had a bull bear fight at $5 with spike action through it. Both succombed to selling pressure and fell back hard. Their charts are very similar.
A word of caution, a lot of strong charts are turning over right now. HOM fundamentals haven't changed, just the chart.
Hey I'm back in HOM quicker than I anticipated. Following the gap open a nice flag developed supported by the 9ema on my daily chart, combined with the great revenue news meant I had to get back in, which I did at $4.60. At the same time I was watching AOB at the 50SMA and lower bollinger band $3.50 with super support, but got distracted and didn't re-enter AOB, but what the heck ;) Todays close would suggest continuation Friday, lets see.
Intraday Flag and entry:
Hi,
Suggest caution. A gap to fill below & it will attract 'selling shares' IF the volume doesn't rise to the upside & soon. Suggest taking profits now & buy back lower after the gap gets filled.
good fortune to you however you play it
willie
Quote from: willey on September 30, 2005, 02:04:16 PM
Hi,
Suggest caution. A gap to fill below & it will attract 'selling shares' IF the volume doesn't rise to the upside & soon. Suggest taking profits now & buy back lower after the gap gets filled.
good fortune to you however you play it
willie
I'm a newbie but one of the first things i learned is that there are different kind of gaps and that they don't always have to be filled!
These charts you guys post are beautiful works of art. Also a bit like constellations, in that you can subjectively interpret what you're seeing. Does the URSA constellation look like a bear or a bowl of chicken soup? It's all an education to me.
Prfsr Hal
I'm still holding since 2.97. This has got some legs to it. Last year I owned BMHC from 17 and sold at 32, today it's 93.26 a share. Who knows?
HOM rested on Friday after the bounceback. It now sits on support (blue line, with 9ema just below) but significantly still has to deal with the pscyh $5 level. A close above $5.20 area would get things moving again. I am watching carefully to make sure previous uptrend line doesn't turn into to much of a resistance and send HOM away. Many stocks do return to their previous support lines (after a failure of it) only for it to now be big resistance.
I have been out for a few days (thanks Willey). Hopefully HOM is setting up for another trade- maybe filling the gap?
Out since yesterday ...
Filled the gap this morning - low of 4.40. Should rally from here.... 8)
Hi Scottishtrader ,
looking at the prices from 28. and 29. September the gap is not closed yet. Closingprice as of 28. Sept. was $ 4,14, the LOD the next day was $ 4,43. Yesterday we have been @ 4,40.
So the gap is still there.
Hasadeur
True, apologies, my mistake, was a misread. I did buy on it though and am now looking at red. That'll learn me ;)
Still #2 in IBD highest rate stocks under $10, even though many of the #3-10 have changed.
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/low1010_05.html
Well, Friday and today's action provided some very nice indications of a trend reversal in effect for HOM. While things have been short term bearish, as I mentioned before (but got the gap wrong) the crazy action the week before last left a gap that was just begging to be filled, and on Friday, HOM did just that. In addition, the low confirmed a new ascending trendline, which should hopefully stay in play for the next little while.
Even better, today's action looks like it has given us a morning doji star candlestick pattern (not sure whether it needed to close near the high of the day though), which should inidcate a return to the bullish trend for HOM. We also saw a nice upturn to today's RSI of of 50 as a result, which could signal positive movement in the near future, and volume was back somewhat after decreasing down days.
All in all, I think HOM now looks very bullish (but perhaps I am being a litlle too bullish ??? I don't know). The upside resistance at previous highs is pretty strong, as we saw before, but what we may have is a little ascending triangle in the works, which should eventually break out to the upside, and with HOM primed for very good news, it could happen any time.
If you pulled out of HOM and want to get in, I would say now is a pretty good time. It may retrace back to this new ascending support line again before breaking out, but I think the crazy drop the other week, which burned a lot of people (including me) should not happen again until we see new highs, much higher.
Just my thoughts....
the Scotsman
I'm with you on this one too. Did not sell HOM, exactle for the analysis you gave. Don't expect big jumps back up, but going up following the ascending TL. With yesterday action HOM set a higher bottum from the previous one, which is a positive sign :) Now we just need a higher top >:D
Amarens
I've stayed in through the drop off as well. Hoping that patinece will be rewarded this time.
Prfsr Hal
Hi all, I thought I would post this, as I've been having another look at HOM today, and I am a little concerned - the chart may not be quite as bullish as I said previously, and I just want to make people aware of it. While I'm still convinced that HOM should do well over coming weeks and months, it appears that it may be at a short term decision point as to which way it wants to go.
After talk about an ascending triangle, it appears that what we actually have is a (a)symmetric triangle which we are coiling into the end of right now. We have 3 low touches on the ascending trendline and 3 high touches on the descending trendline, and a decision to be made next week.
My concerns arise from the fact that since this triangle started to consolidate, we have a fairly strong negative divergence of the MACD, and also of the RSI, as can be seen. While we have been pushing on the bounds of the descending trendline, it is definitely something to be aware of. While we could very easily break to the upside (and in some ways the pullback of MACD and RSI, which are both still positive, gives us more room to play with) keep a close eye on the ascending trendline, which looks like it will stand between 4.58-4.60 on Monday. A test of this should be okay, but a break of it would break below the trend of recent breakdowns, and I believe would signal a strong move lower. Please don't forget that a lot of great stocks with great prospects have broken down recently, and to take the signals when they come. I, for one, don't want to see another breakdown in HOM.
Here's to hoping it won't happen ;)
Hi,
Disclosure, no position in HOM
I suggest that the business model has changed here, that it'll need a quarter or two to prove its new model has the same ( or better ) rate of growth compared to its previous.
I think HOM stock price will stall & chop until....
good fortune to all longs
williy
Look out above!!
HOM seems to be breaking out of the symmetric triagle to the upside - lets see where it runs today!
;D ;D ;D
**UPDATE** 3:15pm ET - HOM has just broken all time highs - break over 5.50, just posted 5.60+
This one should keep on going here :D :D
And what a day for HOM as well!!! Sure is a lot going on today ;D
We saw a solid symmetrical triangle breakout from HOM, gaining more than 13% on big volume - obviously the chart is moving technically, as the triangle wanted it to happen ;) - I'm just glad the indicators I mentioned in an earlier post were wrong. Our triangle breakout posts a target of about $6.48, conservatively, or $ 7.50 if you take it from the bottom of the sharp ascending trendline.
On top of that we posted a new high for the millenium of 5.65, and despite an afternoon pullback, HOM pushed on to close strongly. We also have a bullish crossover of the MACD with its signal line, probably tomorrow. I think this could be the beginning of a very strong move. Now, I'm not sure if this is in anticipation of another hurricane coming, or whether earnings are coming, but I think HOM is one to sit tight and right for the next little while at least.
Here's to hoping that October finishes like september started ;D
I'm buying back HOM today. Trendline #1 was not enough but trendline #2 was too much. Yet, the stock found trendline #3 and broke out of a symmetrical triangle formation to new highs.
This decisive move above $5 will make shorts worried and run to cover. This will add further fuel for the uptrend to resume.
HOM was a great find and a great holding, I need it back on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Had I only known this before I sold at a nice profit for the second time.... ;)
Amarens
I bought it back yesterday. Now that this resistance has been broken to the upside, it should head higher.
HOM closed at a new high yesterday, after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The technical target of that breakout is $7.14, so I expect this target to be reached in the near future.
The trend is bullish and the trend is your best friend in the markets.
Acting as support we have TL3 with a $0.067 slope, which means it rises $0.067 per trading day. HOM couldn't hold TL2, which was too steep, but TL1 was too flat. It seems it found its rising path on TL3.
So, not quite like VPHM, but still a nice stock to own. I'll continue holding it.
HOM's pullback today followed yesterday's peak at new highs. As can be seen in the 15 min chart (I just discovered these, and hope they will help me with entry and exit points, which I've been getting burned with lately >:D)
This followed a descending trendline of resistance, indicating a fairly orderly pullback. This has been met with support at 5.45, and the price was coiling into this descending triangle to the end of the day. If this support is strong, and HOM breaks out to the upside, all should be good. I don't want to see HOM fall below this support level, but as a fallback, 5.40 should also provide support. A move below this and I think we will lose the gains we've made in recent days.
Hope this helps people in planning tomorrows trades, here's the 15 min 5 day chart. ;D
Good Morning !
Thanks for your input ScottishTrader ;)
David will not be able to post the regular daily updates today. But he gave me instructions to Hold this position on HOM.
I'll just post an updated chart.
This market isn't easy to trade. We've had a nice breakout to the upside on HOM but the stock fell back below the previous highs. That's not a good sign, specially considering the stock is one of those that came from below $1.5 to high $5. Maybe some shorts are plunging on this one.
Anyway, I see the stock up 4% in after hours, but with just 7,000 shares traded. I'm not a new fan of HOM, I bought it at $2.97 and sold it at $4.35 when it broke TL2. TL2 was too steep for HOM.
So now I'm trading on TL3, which has a slope of $0.067 per trading day, much more reasonable than TL2 (where the slope was $0.12, only for VPHM ;D). If the stock fails to hold TL3 (tomorrow at $4.90) I'll sell it with no remorse.
This is the way I protect risk and keep capital available to buy and hold stocks that are trending up. Because for a speculator to make money stocks need to rise and keep on rising. When they stop rising and start falling one should get out and look for others. This is the way this game must be played to achieve superior results. It's actually much more simple than we many times think.
I want stocks with bullish trends. I don't want stocks with bearish or lateral trends.
Regarding this general concept, I want to hold HOM if it shows a rising trend. If it doesn't, I should sell it.
So, my trading plan for HOM is to hold it for as long as it is set to close above TL3. For tomorrow TL3 will be standing at $4.96.
David--
The strategy that you describe in your most recent post on HOM is different from the strategy you employ for companies like BRVO and EYII and HQSM, where you are willing to tolerate long term wallowing in a range.
You have recentlysold and then bought back into companies like HOM and NVAX where you would have enjoyed continuing profits had you stayed in longer than you had...in effect giving these companies the same benefit of the doubt that you give to EYII and BRVO. I'm wondering what criteria you apply in adapting your different strategies to different companies.
Prfsr Hal
Great question Prfsr Hal!
HOM looked great today!!
aix
Quote from: Prfsr Hal on October 24, 2005, 10:53:54 AM
David--
The strategy that you describe in your most recent post on HOM is different from the strategy you employ for companies like BRVO and EYII and HQSM, where you are willing to tolerate long term wallowing in a range.
You have recentlysold and then bought back into companies like HOM and NVAX where you would have enjoyed continuing profits had you stayed in longer than you had...in effect giving these companies the same benefit of the doubt that you give to EYII and BRVO. I'm wondering what criteria you apply in adapting your different strategies to different companies.
Prfsr Hal
It is indeed a good question Prfsr Hal, let me applaud :)
If you take notice you'll see that BRVO.OB, EYII.OB and HQSM.OB are all OTCBB stocks. They are also micro cap stocks. Market inefficiencies abound there, so I can't trust solely on technical analysis to establish hold/sell decisions.
HOM, NVAX and others are Nasdaq stocks, with a medium size market cap and big liquidity (comparative to OTCBB stocks). So there I expect two things:
1) All or most fundamental information is known and absorbed by the market, which gives a stock quote pretty much close to the «intrinsic value» of the stock at a given moment.
2) I can trust technical analysis for a perceived change in fundamentals, because the market's awareness is high. But, of course, technical analysis can fail too.
So, as a rule of thumb, I would say this:
The smaller the market cap and liquidity the more you need to base your decisions on fundamental analysis. The higher the market cap and liquidity the more you should base your decisions on technical analysisIt is possible for an OTCBB stock to have great fundamentals and yet that isn't perceived by the market. The stock may go down when fundamentals are improving because the market didn't noticed yet.
With NYSE and Nasdaq stocks it is much harder to find anything new on the fundamental side. Every news and piece of fundamental information is rapidly discounted on the stock price. Trading there should be based much more on expectations for the future than on facts that everybody already knows. Expectations for the future are shown on the stock chart that reflects the actions from investors. So you should put an emphasis on technical analysis when trading big caps and big liquidity stocks.
Considering HOM, the stock opened on a gap up because of Wilma. Then it came back down again. I will continue holding it for as long as the stock closes above TL3, which for today stands at $5.07.
HOM: HOLD, unless it is set to close below $5.14.
HOM is another stock where I don't have to think much. TL3 is a reasonable ascending trendline that should be respected for me to keep holding the stock, since I generally just want stocks that are experiencing bull runs.
For today TL3 is at $5.21.
Although I have a little suspicion that HOM won't rise with the general market (because it is partly a theme stock, related to hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma), I feel I must respect my trading and continue holding the stock for as long as it is set to close above TL3.
For today TL3 will be standing at $5.30.
And look at that, HOM printed a low of 5.31, testing this trendline once again, before pushing back up. If I had some money available, that was my buy-in point, shame I couldn't, but oh well.
Hopefully for everyone else, this trendline touch, like the last ones should signal a change in tone for HOM. I expect upcoming earnings will be very good. ;)
Picked up some shares near the close. Hoping for a green day tomorrow.
HOM opened lower, touched TL3 and the rebounded by the close, leaving a white candle on the chart. I hope this support reaction takes the stock to new highs quickly, as netfishdemerich says, the 3rd quarter results are expected to be very good (I still don't know when they will report).
I have to stick to the plan here, and hold HOM for as long as it is set to close above its ascending trendline support. If the stock closes below TL3 it means it couldn't keep up with a $0.067 rise per trading day, it would mean the trend was no longer bullish, but lateral. I want just bullish stocks on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
So the trading plan for HOM for today is simple: hold if the stock is set to close above $5.37, otherwise sell.
Well tomorrow is D-day as the TL3 will be higher than todays close of 5.42 (TL3 = 5.44 tomorrow right?)
So higher or out, right David?
IMO it opened too high today. It turned bearish pretty quick.
We've had some news today before the open but they failed to inspire HOM:
Home Solutions Responds to Hurricane Wilma (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1346433&guid=%7B7217B136%2D5EF8%2D4AF9%2DACA2%2D9277D0F52CA3%7D&symb=)
Cramer and friends had some negative comments about HOM last Friday, that probably explains the lower open yesterday:
«Gabrielski said Home Solutions of America had rallied about 250% this year as a play on the cleanup from the hurricanes. However, the company became public by means of a reverse merger, which means it bought a shell company to gain listing on an exchange rather than by going through the public offering process. Additionally, the company has sold stock to private investors at discounted prices, he said. Cramer said that kind of stock is "not my cup of tea," adding that he also doesn't like the brokerage companies that cover the stock. And, with the stock up 250% this year, most of the move has probably been made, he said.»
This means nothing to me, they wish they had those 250% profits.
Quote from: defenderyou on November 01, 2005, 06:11:52 PM
Well tomorrow is D-day as the TL3 will be higher than todays close of 5.42 (TL3 = 5.44 tomorrow right?)
So higher or out, right David?
Thanks for your question defenderyou :) Yes, I got TL3 at $5.43 for tomorrow, so HOM needs to rise, at least a bit, for me to continue holding it.
I really feel the stock is cheap at this point, but I also feel the market isn't looking for theme stocks to play now (well, some relapses on a few stocks, but mostly it seems to me the smart money is leaving them).
So, HOM needs news to move forward, without them the stock will probably naturally fall, unfortunately.
Possibly my plans and sometimes mistakes are a bit annoying, but that's how my life goes as a trader ... and I've never been a better trader than I am now. What I mean by this is that taking small losses when its needed hasn't got much style, it isn't sexy, not for a newsletter writer.
But I don't see myself as a newsletter writer, I see myself as a trader who discloses his strategies and thoughts, for others to learn from his successes and mistakes.
The one who learns from his mistakes is wise, but the man who learns from others mistakes is a genius. I want to help you to be a genius in trading.
Well, where was I? HOM, ok, the trading plan is very simple, if the stock tomorrow is set to close above the ascending trendline support, TL3 at $5.43, I'll hold. If not, I'll sell.
Presumably David sold HOM today or will do so at the open tomorrow. HOM broke its long term trendline today and looks like a fantastic SHORT right now. Chart: http://tinyurl.com/cvb6l
I sold out in the morning. It just did not look like it was going to be a green day.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 01, 2005, 06:56:58 PM
Possibly my plans and sometimes mistakes are a bit annoying, but that's how my life goes as a trader ... and I've never been a better trader than I am now. What I mean by this is that taking small losses when its needed hasn't got much style, it isn't sexy, not for a newsletter writer.
Well said David, that's why we love you! :-*
Lol, thanks irod, you're inspired today, I love you guys too :D
I dumped HOM before the closing bell, at $5.25, according to plan. The stock had a major technical sell signal so I don't want in anymore. I suspected this was going to happen, but I thought it was better to wait for confirmation, having discipline, because longer term that's the right thing to do.
Normal business execution here. Time to move on.
I got out at $5.30 for a 60% gain. Thanks Dave for your trend line. I kept moving my stop higher and it paid off. I'm but a babe in the woods, but I'm learning so much from all of you. Becoming a premium member was the best investment I've made so far. ;D
#2 spot on IBD list (<$10) 3rd time in a row, the #3-10 have changed a lot but #1 & #2 are always AOB and HOM:
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/low1107_05.html
I stayed at HOM. Glad today that I did. Anyone else?
Prfsr Hal
Quote from: Prfsr Hal on November 07, 2005, 10:10:50 PM
I stayed at HOM. Glad today that I did. Anyone else?
Prfsr Hal
I am still in, I do belive they will announce earning date this week.
GLTA
-Sunan
I came into HOM a little higher than David did, and I didn't like the exit point he chose, so yes I am still holding as well.
Another reason for holding was the chart action covering the last week in September, a very similar robust bounce after a high-volume sell-off.
Looking forward to earnings.
Are any 3SOF members on board for earnings Monday morning?
Good luck all...
I am holding through earning, from low $3.
Forward earning is $0.39, and at PE=25, this should be $10 stock.
I am holding thru earnings but I only have 1000 shares left (started with 3000) but sold long the way.
EPS guidance for 2005 = $0.25-$0.27
EPS guidance for 2006 = $0.42-$0.46
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051114/sfm118.html?.v=20
Market is really loving it!
Quote from: valueseeker on November 14, 2005, 08:11:35 AM
EPS guidance for 2005 = $0.25-$0.27
EPS guidance for 2006 = $0.42-$0.46
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051114/sfm118.html?.v=20
Market is really loving it!
big applaud >:D
The prfsr is still in and happy to be in. Holding long now.
Still holding from 2.58 back in August...my stop is pretty tight now, so it looks like this journey may end soon.
A double is pretty sweet, but searching for info on HOM is actually how I ended up finding out about this place, so maybe the return can't just be measured in dollars...
I haven't been posting here much, but I think I'm going to start being more active on the picking forum, I really like this place. Haven't decided if a premium membership is worthwhile for a small-time dude like me, as I only got to enjoy the 3SOF forum for a week or two...
With their continuing positive guidance, and their moderately aggressive acquisitions, it sounds like they know what they're doing. In the absense of a total reversal of fortune, I'm holding long term on this one.
Prfsr Hal
We have more institutions holding which make it look pretty good.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/Holdings.asp?symbol=HOM&selected=HOM&page=holdingssumm ary
Awesome, still didn't get stopped out...still like this stock for the same reasons I liked it at 2.58.
HOM down big pre-market -12%!
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051123/daw004.html?.v=37
Home Solutions of America Announces $26.7 Million Private Placement
Wednesday November 23, 7:00 am ET
DALLAS, Nov. 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Home Solutions of America, Inc. (Amex: HOM - News), a provider of recovery, restoration and rebuilding/remodeling services, announced today that the Company has entered into a material agreement to raise $26,675,000 through a private placement offering of common stock and warrants exercisable for common stock. The net proceeds of the offering after placement agent fees and other fees and expenses will be approximately $24.6 million and will be used to pay off $11 million in seller debt resulting from the acquisition of the assets of Florida Environmental Remediation Services, Inc., to pay off $7 million of existing mezzanine debt, and for working capital purposes. The offering is subject to standard closing conditions, including the receipt of all subscription funds and the approval of the listing on the American Stock Exchange of the common stock to be issued in the offering and issuable upon exercise of the warrants.
The offering consists of 4,850,000 units at a purchase price of $5.50 per unit, with each unit consisting of one (1) share of common stock and a purchase warrant exercisable for a 0.20 share of common stock. If the offering closes, the company will issue to the investors, an aggregate 4,850,000 shares of common stock and warrants exercisable for an aggregate 970,000 shares of common stock. The warrants, if issued, will be exercisable immediately, have a five-year term, and have an exercise price of $5.50 per share. In addition, the company will issue to the placement agent, Sanders Morris Harris Inc., warrants exercisable for 125,000 shares of common stock. The placement agent warrants, if issued, will be exercisable immediately, have a five-year term, and have an exercise price of $5.50 per share. In addition, the placement agent will receive a fee equal to 7% of the gross proceeds of the offering.
Home Solutions is a provider of recovery, restoration and rebuilding/remodeling services to commercial and residential areas that are (i) prone to flooding, hurricanes, tornados, fires or other naturally occurring and repetitive weather related emergencies; and/or (ii) experiencing robust housing development. The Company has operations in California, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina through its five subsidiaries, Cornerstone Building and Remodeling, Southern Exposure, P.W. Stephens, Home Solutions Restoration of Louisiana and Fiber Seal Systems. Cornerstone is a leading supplier and installer of granite materials for kitchens and baths to national home centers, as well as national builders and remodeling companies, in the southeastern United States. Southern Exposure and related companies is a provider of cabinet and countertop installation services in the Florida marketplace. P.W. Stephens provides mold and asbestos remediation services, and fire and water restoration services in California, Florida and Louisiana. Home Solutions Restoration of Louisiana provides Recovery Restoration Services in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas and Fiber Seal Systems is a national licensor of cleaning and fabric protection businesses.
Dirty deal that private placement. Still, hoping that future results will absorb the big hit it took. Holding for L/T
Prfsr Hal
Well, doesn't look like IBD #1 will help much...but I 'm still holding some long.
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/low1205_05.html
-Tug
I thought about HOM again when I was writing at NVAX thread, to see how these things happen:
QuoteThe highlight for NVAX is: «Democrats came in for harsh criticism themselves for holding up the defense spending bill, which includes equipment for the troops as well as $29 billion for Hurricane Katrina relief, $3.8 billion to prepare for an avian flu pandemic and $2 billion to help low-income people pay their heating bills.»
But the highlight for HOM is:
$29 billion for Hurricane Katrina relief.
This caught my attention and I thought of taking a look at HOM. Here's what I see at this point:
Technical Analysis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12061;image)
Remember I had TL1 as support when I first bought HOM? Well, the stock just touched it again and it is bouncing back. It is still long term bullish.
Fundamentals:I don't have time to go deep into the fundamentals, but let's see the historic graphs for Revenues and EPS.
Revenues:(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12062;image)
EPS:(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=12063;image)
If the company meets its internal projections, and at this point there's no reason to believe it won't, it has a forward earnings multiple of 11.6. The company is growing fast since 2003, much before Katrina. Katrina, Rita and Wilma just made it grow even faster, I believe.
HOM can be an attractive shelter in the current market environment. I can buy it with a stop on a close below TL1, which for today stands at $4.66, rising a bit everyday. Chances are the stock resumes the uptrend and makes new highs above $7, or at least close the gap at $6.42, about a 25% move from yesterday's close.
I'll buy it today for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital, as always (o not bid it up on the pre-market, a gap up, with the open above $5.17, could bring short term profit taking. I won't buy today if the open is set to be above $5.17, only tomorrow).
Hi David,
Is HOM forming a head and shoulder shape?
HOM cannot break the 9-EMA. It bounced back and touched the 9-EMA line. Then it resumed the down trend again.
I will not touch it unless it gives clear signal. Of course, KD is in oversold. But oversold could last very long.
Quote from: huayilu on December 21, 2005, 12:04:38 PM
Hi David,
Is HOM forming a head and shoulder shape?
It would have to be a quite imperfect one.
Quote from: shawFund on December 22, 2005, 12:01:45 AM
HOM cannot break the 9-EMA. It bounced back and touched the 9-EMA line. Then it resumed the down trend again.
I will not touch it unless it gives clear signal. Of course, KD is in oversold. But oversold could last very long.
I agree shawFund. You're basing your trading decision on the 9 day ema, I'm basing mine on the old ascending trendline providing support.
Yesterday HOM came down to touch the ascending trendline for the second time and is now ready to jump higher. The ascending trendline today is standing at $4.71.
I feel my bullish case on the stock would be greatly dimished if the stock were to close below $4.71. Therefore I'll sell HOM if it is set to close below $4.71.
HOM went down a lot on an intraday basis, thouched $4.56 (the last low point was $4.55) and then came back to finish in the green and above TL1.
Everything is set for the stock price to appreciate now.
I'll continue holding HOM, unless it is set to close below $4.74.
David, are you sure that your ascending trendline (TL1) providing support is correct?
looks to me that there is something wrong with your charting software or maybe your computer... here, take a look & compare...
--->If i'm right, that is the reason why i did not buy HOM...
--->I don't see any TL3.....And besides, your TL3 is my TL1[/color]
--->HOM is in downtrend mode forming a "Top HEAD & SHOULDERS"
--->I'd rather buy HOM @ $3.50 for better entry (support from the beginning of second quarter of 2003) ;)
CHART2
David is using a linear chart, not a logrithmic chart.
Quote from: kslifka on December 24, 2005, 10:48:24 PM
David is using a linear chart, not a logrithmic chart.
That's made it clear..thanks kslifka ;)
Repost From The Technical Analysis Board/The Wolfe Wave Pattern Folder:
HOM looks to have the elements of a Wolfe Wave.
1. After valdating T1 (Trendline 1) on August 18, HOM went on a rip to the upside, which also is our required lead-in to the Wolfe Wave.
2. During the late September to mid-October consolidation, a bullish Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green on the chart) formed, putting 6.63 IN PLAY.
3. Interestingly, after Waves 1,2,3, and 4 of the Wolfe Wave formed, the November 14 "Gap To Crap" high was 6.60, within three cents of the target (Suggestion: when you get a gap opening like that, very near a target, and very near a trendline as well, take the money. "Sell into strength.").
4. Also of interest is the fact that, if we shorted the "Gap To Crap" at the top of the Wolfe Wave on November 14, thinking that we might not get the "false breakout" that we often see in a Wave 5, we would have had a problem because we did get the false breakout five days later (and the 6.63 target ended up getting MADE).
We would have had a problem being short because we would have been staring at what appeared to be a Breakaway Gap to the upside on November 21, and HOM was printing new highs. That's a scary postion to be in, if you're short.
I'm coming to feel that these WW patterns are much better when you do get the false breakouts, or the false breakdowns, because that's where you really get the imbalance that calven has discussed.
At Wave 5 on this chart, anyone buying the upside breakout got it wrong, and the shorts, who were staring at an upside Breakaway Gap at the open and a new high in the stock, and who covered their shorts, covered at exactly the wrong time!
The proverbial "everyone" was buying, both longs and shorts alike, and "everyone" is caught off balance in a Wave 5 move like this one, if you see what I mean. I think that element is the key to why we see such powerful moves from Wave 5 to Wave 6, as calven has shown us. It seems not only to be an "imbalance," but players are caught "off balance."
While the false move at Wave 5 isn't required, I think it's better if we get it for that reason.
5. HOM hasn't gone to the target at Wave 6, (which remains to be seen), but if we had used the low (6.60) of the false breakout at Wave 5 as our "Sell Short" pivot, the gain on the short trade at the recent lows at T1 support would have been as much as 30%. Not bad.
6. Currently, HOM is finding nice support at T1 and has put in a double-bottom at 4.55-4.56. The last three sessions have been bullish hammers, so it looks like it wants to rally. If it can hold that T-1 support, then take out the middle of the "W" by printing 5.21, HOM has some "head room" to rally, at least to 5.50-5.54 resistance, or to the "W"-bottom target of 5.84. Short-term view.
5.50 and 5.51 were the lows prior to the drop to T1.
5.54 is the 50DMA, which has flattened out and has rolled over slightly.
Happy holidays to everyone!
Yes Terlisa, I'm using a normal scale chart on HOM (as in most short to medium term charts), thanks for the clarification kslifka :)
Great technical analysis Melf Elf, I specially agree with this part:
Quote6. Currently, HOM is finding nice support at T1 and has put in a double-bottom at 4.55-4.56. The last three sessions have been bullish hammers, so it looks like it wants to rally. If it can hold that T-1 support, then take out the middle of the "W" by printing 5.21, HOM has some "head room" to rally, at least to 5.50-5.54 resistance, or to the "W"-bottom target of 5.84. Short-term view.
I agree with this, and according to TA, if the stock closes below TL1 it would be hard to defend a bullish case on it. Therefore, my trading plan continues to be:
- Hold for as long as the stock is set to close above TL1, which for today stands at $4.78.
Quote from: David Randolph on December 27, 2005, 05:52:42 AM
if the stock closes below TL1 it would be hard to defend a bullish case on it. Therefore, my trading plan continues to be:
- Hold for as long as the stock is set to close above TL1, which for today stands at $4.78.
David,
The fact that we've put in 3 Bullish Hammers on TL1 the past 3 trading sessions, and managed to close above TL1 all 3 sessions, would seem to indicate that the market recognizes its importance.
HOM is weak again this morning.
Very short-term, it needs to print 4.91, above last Thursday and Friday's high of 4.90 on both days. That also would get HOM back above TL1, which we are below right now.
HOM currently is BID 4.71...ASK 4.73
What I see the chart for HOM:
It is in downtrend since 11/21/2005 when it run its high of $6.99.
Since then, it formed lower highs and lower lows and traded in the down channel.
Looks like HOM is out in 3SOF ........I'll be a buyer @ 3.50 ...goodluck ;)
Fundamentally speaking this company is in great shape. With the floods in California that means even more bussiness for HOM. I expect big growth from this company 06'. I hope the techinicals start showing this soon. I hope they come out with some guidance in January. If they do there's no doubt it will be posisitve news and that will get the stock moving. jmo.
Looks like HOM did a big bounce today. What do you think?
HOM wants to have some action ;) :D ;D
hi,
posted on tech analysis page,
what do you think of hom ? will it go on from here after a couple of days retrace?
here is an abc set up for hom,
point A, 4.25 reached on 12/28 ( last bottom)
poin B, 5.39 1/5/06 ( last high) \
retracement to point C, 4.95 1/10/06
inside day today. safe entry at 25% point
10 day about to cross 20 day,
bounced off the 38 fibonacci short term .(point C 4.95
take profits at 75%
what do you think? does hom have a chance this week of makin' it ? we'll see.
enjoy trading,
maxi
hi,
anyone still in hom?
here is a chart . touched the 50 day ema yesterday , 10 day crossing twenty day. still looks good. let's see what happens today and friday.
maxi
I'm still in HOM ;). and I'll stay in as long a it closes above my TL (sorry no time to update chart) standing for today at $ 5,11, rising $ 0,03 a day.
Good trading!
Amarens
hi,
hom looks like it wants to go higher , my target is at 5.80 but with the market retracing today and probably tomorrow let's see.
here are a couple of charts.
Quote from: Terlisa on January 06, 2006, 02:07:58 AM
HOM wants to have some action ;) :D ;D
& it did... maybe more ;)
looks good:
HOM: Shares Moving After Insider Buy
Friday , January 13, 2006 11:46 ET
Home Solution of America Inc (HOM) shares, up 3.6%, are moving after news of the CFO of the company, Rick O'Brien, acquired 5,000 shares at market price.
maxi,
I've tried to post three times today, but no luck. I get "Web site not responding," or this one:
Forbidden
You don't have permission to access /trading/index.php on this server.
Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request. Apache/1.3.34 Server at www.3stocksonfire.org Port 80
I tried to save what I wrote, but lost it. :(
Anyway...
Quote from: Terlisa on January 14, 2006, 01:16:53 AM
Quote from: Terlisa on January 06, 2006, 02:07:58 AM
HOM wants to have some action ;) :D ;D
& it did... maybe more ;)
Applause to Terlisa. That Ascending Triangle breakout puts a target of
5.85 IN PLAY.
Quote from: rickjust on January 12, 2006, 08:17:35 PM
hi,
hom looks like it wants to go higher , my target is at 5.80 but with the market retracing today and probably tomorrow let's see.
here are a couple of charts.
That's very near your
5.80 target.
On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the top of the Kumo (Cloud) now is at 5.77. On a rally to that area, I'd take some profit. Just a suggestion. I take some when targets get MADE, particularly at known resistance, like this Cloud overhead. That doesn't mean it
can't go higher. It sure can.
You can see from this chart how the Kumo (Cloud) acted as resistance on the first rally attempt, after the break below it in mid-December. Again, just suggesting. I don't try to predict what the market is going to do.
Metastock calculates the Kumo (Cloud) for you, which you asked me about. Here's their description of how they calculate it:
Senkou Span A. The first span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span B. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen)/2.
Senkou Span B. The second span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span A. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2.
Good luck to you, to others who are long HOM! Lord, I hope that this posts this time. ;D
hi,
thanks melf , for the explanation on the cloud and the ta. it was pretty accurate on desc the other day.
so we all seem to have different ta with only minimal difference in the profit target. 5.85. 5.80. 5.77.
i will be watching for that 5.77 closely.
when the stock breaks that fifty percent point with good volume which we had on friday it should go on to the target.
the market has the final word ;D
Quote from: rickjust on January 15, 2006, 12:13:50 AM
i will be watching for that 5.77 closely.
maxi,
HOM took off at the open and printed
5.77 at 9:51AM.
hi melf,
saw it this morning! still holding , currently at 5.74 . hovering around the 5.70's
lets see what happens.
maxi
hi ,
got out today 5.70. reached close enought to target 5.80 . hit 5.79 this morning.
lost a couple of points rating, was it something i said?
seems odd that i would be smited without someone saying anything,
oh well,
happy trading,
maxi
Quote from: rickjust on January 18, 2006, 12:42:56 AM
hi ,
got out today 5.70.
Glad you made some $$$ maxi.
Quote
reached close enought to target 5.80 . hit 5.79 this morning.
Applaud.
Quote
lost a couple of points rating, was it something i said?
Tough crowd. You come within a penny of your target, and get smites.
??? ??? ???
thanks melf,
happy trading!
maxi
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 14, 2006, 05:10:22 PM
That's very near your 5.80 target.
On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the top of the Kumo (Cloud) now is at 5.77. On a rally to that area, I'd take some profit. Just a suggestion. I take some when targets get MADE, particularly at known resistance, like this Cloud overhead. That doesn't mean it can't go higher. It sure can.
maxi,
You get another applause for taking profits there. It doesn't always work out this way, but employing your profit-taking strategy when your target is MADE, especially at known resistance, won't hurt you any. Nice going!
Just got into HOM today, im waiting for good earnings and a nice pop :). HOM is way below the Private Placement at 5.50. There has been alot of downside recently and I think HOM is definately oversold. Look for another Jump to the 5s at 4.70s its a steal.
Hi
It's good to enter now......sure, it will jump soon.. ;D
Bye
YUNUS
Its going on up and we are breaking thru resistance at the 4.80s. If we break the resistance at the 4.80s we will see 5 very quickly.
Im expecting a strong push up, tomorrow we will see the push thru 5s. Nice 4.98 close at the HOD with a 5.73% gain ;), congrats to those who entered before these recent gains.
5.30 close today not bad ;) up 5.79%, Unfortunately I took profits little early at 5.08 but still took at nice gain of 7.5% over last 2 days.
hi,
back in hom at 5.48, hope i am not too late! seems to be resisting 5.50. that could be a good thing or a bad thing lol!
maxi
hi,
stil in hom , anyone out there?
it seems to be champing at the bit to go. hit 5.60 yesterday but came down in the afternoon with the market. still holding 5.50 i think it is getting ready for a move to six. any opinions?
thanks ,
maxi
hi,
hom finally made a different kind of candle today. but can we get going already so i can get out! i'm falling asleep. com on six!
maxi
HOM made a nice breakout of a symmetric triangle formation this morning - all signs look positive.
Looking for a move above $6.
Anyone know when their earnings will be released? Could well be above expectations, as Lowe just reproted very good earnings based on gulf coast reconstruction (and they supply Lowe with countertops etc.)
hi,
bringing the hom thread alive
nice day for hom today,
looking for it to fill the gap at 6.42 then i am out. this one was my pick for the competion but terlisa told me someone beat me to the punch so i pulled it. guess whre it is..........number one ;D :D
I got into this on break of $6.19-6.20 today....I was pretty confident because of the incredible volume accompanying the pps rise...the short interest in tis stock was quite evident in today's L2 action because no matter how many times it approached the $6.20 range and broke it with hig volume, there was someone always shorting this at a higher price, for a constant suppresing of the price...it was a little nervous, especially since I was watching L2 frequently after buying (still haven't gotten over the habit of just having enough confidence in a pick to jusy place my order, see it get filled and shut down the computer). :( i believe some of you folks out there understand what I mean...I guess it's all part of the learning curve, huh? ???
anyway, I was happy with end of day action and close near HOD...we will cruise to the $6.45-6.50 range easy tomorrow at the open, but I gotta watch and see if this thing has enough "umph" >:D to break thru' that level and go to test 52 week high of $6.99...al large portion of that depends on volume of course, so I'd keep a close watch on morning volume and decide whether to hold on at the $6.50 level or trade it a little.
good lukc to those long on this one.
adios! ;)
HOM's move yesterday was a textbook bullish breakout - 3 intraday triangles breaking through resistance at 5.90 then at 6.09 (the recent high). God knows why I didn't play it. Looks to be the continuation of the larger symmetrical triangle breakout.
I really like the close at HOD - still moving up AH.
hi,
gap filled i am out for the moment . 642 . it may go higher today but i have to stick to my rules for each trade.
glta,
maxi
"Stocklemon hits HOM"
In response to message #25729
http://www.stocklemon.com/
Is Home Solutions a Natural Disaster Waiting to Happen?
Stocklemon Reports on (Amex:HOM)
What is Home Solutions?
Home Solutions was a dormant company and had no operations during most of 2002. Between then and the present, they have spent $50 million in cheap stock and expensive debt to acquire 5 small building services companies – $1.5 to $16 million apiece. These 5 companies comprise 100% of the present day HOM, which, in an astounding feat of new math, is now conferred a a fully diluted market cap of over $440 million!
reading there disclaimer says they can hold a position in the stock. So technically they could of shorted HOM yesterday or today at 11.00 then release report and made some profit.
I pay attention to Stocklemon. They do a good job of digging behind the scenes of a company's fundamentals. If they're short I have no problem with that as long as they aren't making stuff up for the purpose of lining their pockets.
I played a penny stock called Skyway Communications (SWYC) a few years back that was building or buying transmission towers to enable airline passengers to have cheap cell phone and internet service. Awesome idea! The PR's were pie in the sky. It got as high at $2.00. Stocklemon investigated and unearthed many irregularities. The stock no longer trades but when last it did it was under a penny. People who listened to Stocklemon at least were able to get out while it was still above a dollar. And it turned out Skyway had pretty much just made up everything they said.
Link to insider selling as pointed out by Stocklemon
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HOM
That looks like heavy dumping by the President and by the Chairman just over a week ago. With the hurricane season just starting it seems odd for them to be selling.
Heavy sell-off on all-time high volume. Close at LOD. ET phone HOM! ;D
yes HOM in the house of pain... if it breaks the 50dma on monday im out with a 7k loss
HOM looks like it can recover from the hurricane :). http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060605/20060605005728.html?.v=1
Thankgod HOM has stepped in to respond to the slander and bashing it has gone thru last couple days.
I think its more of the 50 EMA support...
This is the ultimate deciding factor...
Cheers
B
THE CEO JUST BOUGHT 100k SHARES TODAY!! At market value
cramer just said SELL SELL SELL
i'm sure he has a big enough following to cause some decline tommarro.
Im sure we will go up tomorrow cramer has been bashing hom ever since it started going up. I take his advice with a grain of salt. The CEO just put his money where his mouth was and bought 100k at 10.15 today. HOM is way over sold, the 50dma isnt broken and HOM just did a nice bounce from there yesterday. I think the downside is very minimal if any and the upside potential is huge.
Quote from: nullzero on June 05, 2006, 07:45:23 PM
Im sure we will go up tomorrow cramer has been bashing hom ever since it started going up. I take his advice with a grain of salt. The CEO just put his money where his mouth was and bought 100k at 10.15 today. HOM is way over sold, the 50dma isnt broken and HOM just did a nice bounce from there yesterday. I think the downside is very minimal if any and the upside potential is huge.
What I don't like is that the CEO sold $22 million worth of stocks two weeks ago! The shares he bought today was just an answer to the stocklemon article. I think the $22 million is much more significant and I don't like it. Jmo of course. Good luck to all.
CEO actually sold about 7.5 mill worth in stock and now purchased 100k at 10.15 today. CEO now holds little over 1,685,000 shares over 100k before the CEO sold any shares. I think the ceo believes in his company. To purchase 100k shares at market for a million dollars shows he has confidence. I think HOM looks very bullish but others might think different one thing for sure is HOM has been a fight with the bulls and bears the last couple weeks. Tomorrow I believe will show the direction this stock will go in. Good luck on those on the long side and short side as well.
"Stocklemon on HOM part II"
Today they address the recently announced contract with ARH:
...This company was established only 5 days before the Home Solutions' Press Release was issued. As of the writing of this report, American Renaissance Homes does not even have a working phone number.
But it gets MUCH BETTER.
After a series of phone calls, we were able to speak with Alan Nazarro, COO of ARH and this is what we found out.
1. Home Solutions of America owns 40% of ARH.
2. The company currently has 0 contracts.
It is the opinion of Stocklemon that this is what we have witnessed: The company needed an announcement about some deal in Louisiana. Therefore, a subsidiary is established without ever publicly disclosing that it is a subsidiary. Then a contract is awarded to Home Solutions from the subsidiary to install homes for which there are no current contracts to install...
http://www.stocklemon.com/06_06_06.html
yeah maybe there right... I lost my ass in HOM serves me right for catching a falling knife. Im out of HOM at a 6k loss. Market is in tank mode. BTW Grats on those on the short side I envy you! :P
what's up with trading on HOM now? All the MMs are gone except NASD but it's still trading? ???
And a 5000 share block goes through at $25.20??? I can't say I've ever seen this kind of thing before.
A single uptick or a downtick on weekly MACD Histogram indicates a change of a trend
So watch out with this trend following system this is like your stick guide if you are blind (MACD Histogram happens to be my favorite now) ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5852.0
Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 12:31:16 PM
A single uptick or a downtick on weekly MACD Histogram indicates a change of a trend
So watch out with this trend following system this is like your stick guide if you are blind (MACD Histogram happens to be my favorite now) ;)
Alister,
Sorry to be a pain in the you-know-what, butt that signal can get you into a lot of trouble, as evidenced by the whipsaws and the false signals in the FORD weekly histogram below.
Also, the weekly histogram in HOM had a downtick in early October, 2005 when the stock closed at 4.36. That was a low, not a sell. HOM rallied 60% into late November.
Just don't want to see you or others get into trouble using that single uptick or downtick on the histogram as a signal. ;)
Nice call on the COGN short. Applause.
Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 12:31:16 PM
A single uptick or a downtick on weekly MACD Histogram indicates a change of a trend
So watch out with this trend following system this is like your stick guide if you are blind (MACD Histogram happens to be my favorite now) ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5852.0
I forgot to mention that i'm using this weekly MACD Histogram along with the MACD Lines, 5 or 9SMA, 50SMA, 200SMA, 200EMA, trendline, volume, price divergence & the force index.... uptick or a downtick on MACD Histogram is just my first step to decide whether it is time to enter now or to exit now ;)
sorry for the confusion..
Let me explain later my side Melf elf... ;)
I'll go for breakfast :D
bought 1k shares at 6.55 and flipped them for a quick profit at 7s
I got a half-fill covering my short at $4.80, a penny off the low of day >:D It doesn't look like HOM really went that low on the intraday chart, but it traded down there for a few seconds. I was watching at just the right time and keyed in a quick order. Not quick enough to cover the whole batch though. I took the short position at $10.10 the day of the first StockLemon report.
Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 01:15:51 PM
I forgot to mention that i'm using this weekly MACD Histogram along with the MACD Lines, 9SMA, 50SMA, 200SMA, 200EMA, trendline, price divergence & the force index.... uptick & or a downtick on MACD Histogram is just my first step to decide to enter now or to exit now ;)
sorry for the confusion.
Alister,
That sounds good. You're using some other things for confirmation.
Quote
Let me explain later my side Melf elf... ;)
I'll go for breakfast :D
No need to explain any further. ;)
Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 12:31:16 PM
A single uptick or a downtick on weekly MACD Histogram indicates a change of a trend
So watch out with this trend following system this is like your stick guide if you are blind (MACD Histogram happens to be my favorite now) ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5852.0
I forgot to mention that i'm using this weekly MACD Histogram along with the MACD Lines, 5 or 9SMA, 50SMA, 200SMA, 200EMA, trendline, volume, price divergence & the force index.... uptick or a downtick on MACD Histogram is just my first step to decide whether it is time to enter now or to exit now ;)
sorry for the confusion....Quote from: Melf Elf on June 06, 2006, 12:58:57 PM
Just don't want to see you or others get into trouble using that single uptick or downtick on the histogram as a signal. ;)
Thanks for the concern Melf (applaud)
Quote from: Melf Elf on June 06, 2006, 12:58:57 PM
Nice call on the COGN short. Applause.
Thanks... COGN is doing good ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on June 06, 2006, 02:08:53 PM
No need to explain any further. ;)
Ok, that saves me some time editing the FORD chart....yippeeeeeeeeeee..... ;) :D
Lucas,
How do you post that thing?
The whole window explorer?
thanks ;)
Just did Alt+PrintScreen, pasted it into Paint, reduced the image size and saved it.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on June 06, 2006, 05:32:19 PM
Just did Alt+PrintScreen, pasted it into Paint, reduced the image size and saved it.
got it, thanks (applaud) ;)
HOM UP 30% today seems that stocklemon may be a fraud and performed an illegal short raid on HOM.
FYI
There is news of a shareholder lawsuit this morning. Doesn't look good in the short term for sure.
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/060621/101050.html
Alien
fyi: ;)
HOM: Short Interest UP 217.8% to 8.7M in Jun 2006
Wednesday, June 21, 2006 16:01 ET
According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Home Solutions of America Inc (AMEX: HOM) INCREASED 217.8% to 8,678,306 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.
SYMBOL MAY JUNE CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
HOM 2,730,688 8,678,306 +5,947,618 +217.81% 2
Based on HOM's 20-day average daily share volume of 6,411,790, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
HOM
Expecting a good run higher to at least the 50dma. ( presently at about $9 )
$$$$
good trading to all
willey
OMG! I'm in the top 5 of the contest with HOM! I'll enjoy it while I can. ;)
HOM broke out of descending triangle today on higher volume. Could have been more convincing but this one is still a trader's stock and was beat back down towards the EOD. Support zone held again yesterday but I wouldn't be surprised to see it tested again until some news comes out. At least we are above the 200dma again so maybe downside is more limited now. Time will tell....
;D
Home Solutions of America Receives Clearance from NASDAQ to Commence Trading on July 17, 2006
Business Wire - July 13, 2006 12:16
DALLAS, Jul 13, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Home Solutions of America, Inc. (AMEX: HOM), a provider of recovery, restoration and rebuilding/remodeling services, announced today that, following its provision of additional information to NASDAQ, its common stock will begin trading on the NASDAQ Global Market under the ticker symbol HSOA as of the commencement of trading on July 17, 2006.
The Company previously announced that the commencement of trading in its common stock, which had been scheduled for June 27th, had been delayed as a result of Nasdaq requesting additional information.
Nice week for HOM! Retest of support zone, move above the 200ma, breakout of descending triangle on increasing volume and all in the face of one of the worst weeks the markets have seen in a long time. Yesterday's Evening Star Doji doesn't excite me but HOM's potential does! A move above the 50ma would be very bullish but I will be watching for the overall market action and either hurricane or earnings news. If the markets continue to move down, HOM will most likely begin to go with them. A market bounce could see HOM continue to move up.
Damn, I can never anticipate this sell the news crap! >:( HOM (now HSOA) made it to the NASDAQ today (woo hoo!!!) and then promptly sold off 10% and closed below the 200ma AGAIN and then sold off another 1.5% AH. The close was at the descending TL of the triangle HSOA managed to break out of last week, so hoping this is only a retest. For what it's worth, the selloff was on pretty low volume although nothing may matter considering how the markets have been feeling lately. At least there are still 2 catalysts to go: Hurricanes and earnings. So, of those 3 contest stocks that are in the green - take the top one off and we're down to 2!!!! BOOYAA!!!! And GO XKEM!!!! ;D
Too bad this wasn't announced before the end of the contest...
Home Solutions Reports Record Second Quarter 2006 Results; Net Income Increases 320 Percent on 90 Percent Sales Growth
Monday August 14, 4:24 pm ET
DALLAS, Aug. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Home Solutions of America, Inc. (Nasdaq: HSOA - News; the "Company" or "Home Solutions"), a provider of recovery, restoration and rebuilding/remodeling services, today reported record financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2006.
"We are very proud to report record-setting results for the second quarter, primarily related to rebuilding efforts along the Gulf Coast that are now under way," said Frank J. Fradella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Home Solutions. "Our second quarter operating results are consistent with our goals that we established earlier this year. They also represent significant progress made in establishing measurable contracts that provide sustainable revenues and earnings for the balance of 2006 and into 2007."
Second Quarter 2006 Consolidated Results
* Revenues from continuing operations for the second quarter grew
90 percent to a record $24.2 million, versus $12.7 million for the
same period in 2005.
* Second quarter 2006 net income increased 320 percent to a record
$4.4 million, or $0.11 per diluted share compared to $1.1 million, or
$0.04 per diluted share, in the same quarter last year. Second
quarter net income included a net gain of $0.02 on discontinued
operations.
* Second quarter 2006 EBITDA increased 186 percent to $6.3 million
(including $5.9 million of operating income and $.4 million of
depreciation and amortization), compared to $2.2 million (including
$1.9 million of operating income and $.3 million of depreciation and
amortization) in the 2005 second quarter.
* The Company's effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2006 was
38 percent compared to 8 percent in the second quarter of 2005.
* Second quarter gross margin was 47.1 percent compared to 43.7 percent
in the same quarter of 2005 and compared to 51.6 percent in the first
quarter 2006. The changes in gross margin relate to mix between the
Recovery/Restoration and Rebuilding/Remodeling segments.
* As of June 30, 2006, the Company reported $13.8 million in cash, and
debt of $1.6 million.
* On July 31, 2006, the Company announced its agreement to acquire
Fireline Restoration, Inc. ("Fireline"), a privately held provider of
recovery and restoration services throughout Florida, Louisiana and
Mississippi for cash consideration of approximately $11.5 million, an
unsecured promissory note issued to the owner in the principal amount
of $21.7 million, and 4 million shares of Home Solutions' restricted
common stock. The acquisition, which was closed, July 31, 2006, is
effective as of July 1, 2006. The Company expects Fireline's
operations to be accretive to its earnings per share during the first
12 months following the effective date of the acquisition.
Second Quarter 2006 Financial Segment Results
* The Recovery/Restoration Services segment generated a 208 percent
increase in revenue to $15.0 million and 742.3 percent increase in
operating income to $6.4 million compared to the 2005 second quarter,
primarily due to the rapid increase in build-back work taking place in
hurricane-affected areas. Cost of sales as a percentage of the
segment revenues declined to 43.8 percent compared to 51.5 percent for
the second quarter of 2005.
* Revenues from continuing operations in the Rebuilding/Remodeling
business segment for the second quarter of 2006 increased 17 percent
to $9.2 million. Operating income from continuing operations
decreased 35 percent to $1.1 million compared to the second quarter of
2005. This resulted from increased spending in infrastructure on the
Home Depot business during the second quarter of 2006. For the
remainder of the year, we expect the quarterly comparisons of segment
operating profit to show increases over the prior year. We expect the
operating profit in the segment to increase over the prior year during
the remainder of the year. While the second quarter growth rate
slowed due to timing of customer deliveries and a softer housing
environment, overall growth in Rebuilding/Remodeling revenues from
continuing operations in the first half of the year is up 65 percent
and operating income is up 27 percent. Cost of sales from continuing
operations increased to 67.9 percent of segment revenues from
59.4 percent due to changes in scale for the quarter.
Six Months Ended June 30, 2006 Consolidated and Segment Results
* Revenues from continuing operations for the six-month period ended
June 30, 2006 increased 97.3 percent to a record $43.4 million, versus
$22.0 million for the same period in 2005.
* For the six-month period, gross margin improved from 46 percent as
compared to the same period a year ago to 49 percent.
* EBITDA increased 149 percent to $10.7 million (including $9.9 million
of operating income and $0.8 million of depreciation and
amortization), compared to $4.0 million (including $3.5 million of
operating income and $0.5 million of depreciation and amortization).
* Net income for the six-month period ended June 30, 2006 increased to
$7.6 million from $2.1 million in the same period last year,
representing a 262 percent gain.
* For the six-month period, net revenue for the Recovery/Restoration
Services were $23.6 million compared to $10.0 million, representing a
136 percent increase over the same period last year due to the
increased activity in the Gulf Coast region and the acquisition by HSR
of Louisiana, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, of the assets
of FERS.
* Rebuilding/Remodeling revenue for the six-month period was
$19.8 million from continuing operations, compared to $12.0 million in
the year-ago period. The growth was attributable to an increase in
sales from increased demand by its primary customers.
* Operating income for Recovery/Restoration increased to $9.0 million
from $1.8 million. Operating margin for Recovery/Restoration improved
to 38.1 percent from 18.3 percent. Operating income for
Rebuilding/Remodeling increased to $3.5 million from $2.7 million.
Operating margin improved to 17.7 percent from 13.4 percent.
Outlook
"While we are pleased that revenues and margins improved in the second quarter, we are more excited that the funding for numerous projects associated with post-Katrina rebuilding is well under way. Previously these projects were hampered by Federal funding and political obstacles," said Fradella. "These projects began in the second quarter and continue to accelerate rapidly going into the second half of the year as we expected and previously announced. We are already seeing signs of additional revenue growth in this segment, and anticipate a very busy second half of the year in meeting the demands of this region.
"We are pleased with the improvements made to our balance sheet, including strengthening of our cash position, collection of receivables and reducing debt, enabling the company to execute its planned strategy of making accretive acquisitions such as Fireline Restoration.
"Fireline Restoration will help us in meeting the tremendous demands of the Gulf Coast region affected by last year's storms and broaden our geographic reach into the Mid-Atlantic region. We believe that increased opportunities with potential new customers will assist us with our growth objectives beyond this year. In addition, we will invest in infrastructure improvements that will effectively combine all of the recovery and restoration businesses under one management team. This should result in operating efficiencies across the entire operating segment. Overall, the outlook for the balance of the year remains very positive," continued Mr. Fradella. "We believe we are on target to meet our financial objectives for the balance of this year. We remain committed to our previous guidance of revenues in the range of $160 million to $165 million for the full fiscal year, and diluted earnings per share of $0.56 to $0.60."
Gap up tomorrow, Basonista ;)
Quote from: Terliso on August 14, 2006, 05:02:20 PM
Gap up tomorrow, Basonista ;)
I just hope it won't be another sell the news day. Great conference call, though. These guys are really getting ready to rock with the Hurricane Katrina cleanup and repair starting to get funded. Exciting times for anyone that can hold on tight. :)
Well, what can you say? HSOA is set to go negative on a great earnings report, just like GIGM did a few days ago. And now stocklemon strikes again. WTF!?! >:(
Hi All,
HSOA rises from 11 Sep. I don't see any news...
Maybe some investors read once more great earnings report ;) ???
Maybe they have forgotten about stocklemon strikes?
In any case, I'm holding with avr $4.9. Hope it will break EMA(50)=5.8
Another GOOD day for HSOA (HOM): +7%
Strong uptrend without news... :D
Maybe HSOA will return to HOM's highs ($14.14 May 2006, before stocklemon strikes).
More real positive scenario: consolidation in the range $6-$8.
I prefer near 8, but over 6 is still good ;D
Negative scenario: new stocklemon attack or someting like this... and HSOA will return to downtrend from $5 to $4.....
Am I alone HSOA stockholder here?
It wasn't wise to post before the close... :-[
Instead of 7%, only 3.23% and bad close...
Last 1.5 hours were weak and unfortunately we received Long-Legged Doji and I'm afraid that tomorrow we can get Evening Star Doji.
All other indicator are OK: Volume, RSI, MACD
Changed Ticker Symbol.......
'HOM' is no longer valid. It has changed to HSOA.
StockLemon was right all along on HSOA. One has to keep www.citronresearch.com in the bookmarks.
Now I see he wrote an article on BIDZ, great :)
HSOA fell down to the Pink Sheets, so I removed it from the Watch List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=40.0).
Citron Research really killed the stock. The new ticker symbol is HSOA.PK.