3SOF

About a month or two ago I studied XING and thought it was very strange that the stock didn't advance. I even thought I bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio before, but I didn't.

At first sight, XING looks like the Chinese Nokia or Ericsson, but nobody believed it, I don't know why.

Yesterday the company raised guidance (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051129/qiao_xing_mover.html?.v=1), and finally, the street took notice:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10487;image)

Nice white marubozu with volume above average. The day was technically significant, because the stock broke out of a 6 month range on the upside:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=10488;image)

The technical target of this breakout is $10.

Fundamentally the stock is so cheap that it is hard to believe ... I even read someone write «I doubt they make cellular phones». According to Yahoo! the market cap is $133.16M. According to Market Watch it is $149.18M.

The company says it will have a net profit of more than $24M in 2005. If we consider Market Watch market cap (always consider the highest available), the trailing P/E is 6.21, and earnings are growing 60% from last year  :o

Maybe something's fishy here, but I don't think it is wise to dig too much at this point, at this moment the market believes, so I believe.

Yesterday's high was $8.03, probably the stock will open with a gap up, and maybe it will come back down to fill that gap, or even have a correction day. But I see the stock trading at least $10 in no more than 2 weeks time, so I have to be in.

I will buy XING for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio around today's open, 6.66% of the Portfolio as always.

 8)
fyai:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1241.15

Wow, it seems you guys were already all over it  :)

Great information on that thread at the Stock Picking Board, thanks !

Palm made a deal with XING, possibly that will bring the market's attention to the undervaluation of XING: Palm Launches Treo 650 Smartphone in China (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B9EFE87C6%2DE0F1%2D4DBF%2DA3B9%2D70CBCBFD2293%7D)

Something's got be wrong here, XING's market cap can't be just $154M, or it would be outrageously cheap. I will investigate that over the following updates.

For now everything is alright, unfortunately the stock opened with a gap up, so momentum was a bit lost. It tried to come down and close the gap, but it failed by 1 cent, which isn't a bad thing, it is a good thing when bulls compete between themselves to buy at a given value, and they can't.

The technical target of this bullish breakout is $10, I don't see this move stopping south of that. In the meantime I'll have time to dig some more inside the company's fundamentals to know if I should take profits at $10 or hold for the long term.

I think that it is a big mistake to not invest in semiconductor stocks in December. For me, I am ALL IN right now.

The index made a big break-out today and many stocks in the group also did so today such as LEXR, SSTI, TRID, See the charts

I am a long follower of XING. Don't be fooled by the company's numbers.

I am not totally in trust the company's management team.

First, I do not  think that PALM can get much market share in China's market.

Second, most of the phone manufacturing companies in China lost money and lost big during last three quarters but XING made big money. The margin for celler phone and normal phone manufacture  is very small and competition is very hard right now.

That is why: even XING has given many very good news releases in last few quarters,
the stock only ups one today after their news announcement, followed by returning to normal.

I am too familiar with China's companies with cooking books only for new money.

XING has done few private placements after they announced good news during last few years.

AOB did the same thing. Even I recommand AOB, IT IS ONLY for technical analysis for break-out chart pattern. It did break-out and gained 25% in one week. But they diluted their shares big and did private placement last week - their long goal to raise money.

I am sure SVA will do the same sooner or later.



We can play XING only for short term momentum purpose. Be very careful though.

Quote from: shawFund on December 01, 2005, 11:49:49 AM
I think that it is a big mistake to not invest in semiconductor stocks in December. For me, I am ALL IN right now.

The index made a big break-out today and many stocks in the group also did so today such as LEXR, SSTI, TRID, See the charts

ShawFund,

Any thoughts on TSM?  I have posted a lot about it in the TSM thread (accessed by looking at closed trades from 3SOF portfolio).  I think it breaks $10 soon, which is both technical resistance at 9.79 (its at 9.78 today) and psychological resistance at $10.

Quote from: tokyopua on December 02, 2005, 01:50:34 AM

Quote from: shawFund on December 01, 2005, 11:49:49 AM
I think that it is a big mistake to not invest in semiconductor stocks in December. For me, I am ALL IN right now.

The index made a big break-out today and many stocks in the group also did so today such as LEXR, SSTI, TRID, See the charts

ShawFund,

Any thoughts on TSM?  I have posted a lot about it in the TSM thread (accessed by looking at closed trades from 3SOF portfolio).  I think it breaks $10 soon, which is both technical resistance at 9.79 (its at 9.78 today) and psychological resistance at $10.

First, Big break-out for both semi index and nasdaq index today. See chart below.

As for individual semi stocks:

TSM has never been a high flying stock.

Why don't put money on good US semi company stocks. Several breaks out today.

After more than one year of strugglling, flash memory price firmed RECENTLY.
SSTI will benefit from it and it has been bassing for 4 months and is due to have a break.  LEXR also is bassing for 4 months. Both firmed an ascedning trendline as seen in prevous post.

My prediction: SSTI will be $7-$8 in few months, LEXR will be $11 in few months.

PXLW breaks out from bottom today.

TMTA gives a buying signal today and will take a position tomorrow morning.

SWKS has been in $5-$10 range since 2002 and is $5.65 today. It may double the price in few months.

ACLS is also traded $5-$10 range during the last few years. It is $5.14 as of today.
I have  been holding it since $4.13.

ATML gained 75% (from $2 -> $$3.5) in 2 months and may test $4-$5 range soon. Its fundamentals improved a lot.

AMD will reach to $30 by year end. That is my prediction few months ago.

At the begining of last year, I predicted that AMD will reach $25 by the end of 2004, its high was $24.95 in 2004. Let us find out whether I am going to make it right the second time on AMD

I have been pushing AMD SINCE THE BEGINING OF 2004 in yahoo msg board.
I saw AMD has become the tech leader in CPU fight with INTC at that time.

SNDK and FLSH may have some trouble on its price because INTC and MU have joined together and want part of pie in this field.

I have been watching ESST for more than 2 years and waiting for its turnaround. It has enough cash. The only problem is its new DVD chip. Once it can have new hot chips, I will put all money in. The price can easily gain to $10-$15.

Semi stocks are highly cyclical in nature. If they have hot chips, the price will be flying suh as FLSH, SNDK, TRID , CAMD ...

CAMD has a niche in its integrated passive component built on chips and is the market leader in that field.

Thanks for your views on the semis shawFund, I think the sector will rise for more 1 week or so and then collapse, but I can be wrong. I believe the S&P500 has about a 2% upside potential here.

Considering XING and Chinese companies, I generally agree with you, but I've searched deep for information and every source says the number of outstanding shares is 18.64 million, which gives me a market cap of $151M.

That's too low for a company making these kind of products: http://www.qiaoxing.com/ (http://www.qiaoxing.com/)

I've read at the company's website that the company's annual meeting is today (http://www.cosun-xing.com/info/info_002.asp), December 2, 2005. Maybe some positive news will be released.

Technically, the stock broke out of a range which upper limit was $7.5. I don't want to see it closing back down below that level, or I'll be out. In the meantime I'll continue holding, as I study more on this company.

Hi, David,

I took your word on the market analysis and took corresponding actions - sold all the semi stocks this morning at high.

May be the semi extended too far in too short time and need to have a correction. But I keep the long term view and the target on semi stocks.

Wait to see and in the mean time, glad to get 5% total return so far in December.

Quote from: shawFund on December 02, 2005, 01:05:12 PM
Hi, David,

I took your word on the market analysis and took corresponding actions - sold all the semi stocks this morning at high.

May be the semi extended too far in too short time and need to have a correction. But I keep the long term view and the target on semi stocks.

Wait to see and in the mean time, glad to get 5% total return so far in December.

You're doing very well shawFund, I hope it continues  :)

QuoteI've read at the company's website that the company's annual meeting is today, December 2, 2005. Maybe some positive news will be released.

I don't know if the meeting actually took place or not, I just wrote an e-mail to investor relations asking if there's going to be a press release or not.

Technically the stock made a higher low on Friday than on Thursday, which can be considered as a positive. I think the uptrend will soon resume, therefore I'll continue holding.

I wouldn't like to see it close back down below $7.5, though.

Jeesh, did the ENTIRE MARKET GO DOWN AT 11 AM today?

Financial Data Update :


Qiao Xing Gross Profit Up 61.5% and Income from Operations Up 144% From Those for the Same Period Last Year. The co on an un-audited management account basis, certain key financial data about its operations for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2005. Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''Net sales for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2005 increased to reach $210.8 mln, while gross profit grew 61.5% to reach $33.6 mln. Thanks to this successful reduction of the cost of sales, the gross profit ratio of the co increased from 10.4% for the first nine months of 2004 to 15.9% for the same period this year.


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051206/cntu009.html?.v=14

The market only rested one day and today many stocks traded higher highs.

TRID continues its run.

The following stocks are very bullish:

AAPL
RBAK
CIEN
CRAY
ATML
PLAY
SGTL
VTSS
TIII
CNXT
MIPS
...

MANY MANY

Buying at pull-back has been a very good strategy so far. I cannot see any force to stop the run until next year.

If you check the semi index, the last few year's gain has been nill (zero!!) while housing, oil sectors have made big runs. 2006 should be the year for semi and tech sector.

Both indexes have made break-out last week.

I really can't explain why XING is this low, reading their last update of financial information (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=142016&guid=%7B6CC34256%2D72F2%2D4718%2D8512%2D935FFFCBA421%7D&symb=), released yesterday, everything seems to be great for this company, which is undervalued.

Maybe it is just profit taking, don't forget the stock rose 65% in just about a month.

I may be accused of complacency here but I find it hard to let this one go for a small loss, it seems so undervalued at this point (maybe I'll feel better with a large loss  ???)

Looking at a longer term chart I see the technical breakout the stock made a couple of weeks ago is really significant.

But discipline goes a long way, stock opportunities are plenty, while capital is scarce. I need to keep the plan and follow it.

The plan is: if XING is set to close below $7.5 I'll sell it.

Hi David,

Congrats with SPEX that was a struck of genius!

XING is an interesting investment. I believe it is a good long term investment but timing is of essence here.

As I have mentioned you should be careful holding it over earnings. XING has a history of issuing great PR's up to earnings and reporting great earnings. That is the good news. The bad news is that they only report earnings per share in the annual earnings report and EPS is normally disappointing as they have a tendency to dilute earnings quite significantly.

I guess the real question is if XING can grow earnings faster than they issue shares and the real play is to buy up to the annual report. With the earning growth they have till today they might have a chance to "surprise" to the updside this year and I would consider to buy in December but it really is a gamble.

Mike

Thanks for showing me the light on XING Michael, I really had a hard understanding it. So, what is your current share count for the company at this moment?

I see 18.65M at Market Watch, 16.64M at Yahoo and 18.65M at the company's website. Maybe this number will grow to the double when the company reports its annual figures? How much dilution was there in the past?

Thanks a lot  :)

I know I don't know enough about XING, so I have to trust the market for hold/sell decisions.

I'll continue holding the stock for as long as it doesn't close below $7.50.

0300 AM Ok so im sick to my stomach. Had a trigger near support for 100 shares and i guess i hit 1000.  I had no clue.  so now i have 10,000  60% of my portfolio in this bad boy.  So while some are made money of of SPEX, i am getting crushed.  I do believe that I am no good at this.  I can not follow simple instructions  ( Dave i dont know how you do it, i buy and sell a littler later then you, but what a difference).   I would do better buying new cars and selling them a week later used. :'(

1213 pm  Ok i did not want to make a new post.  So after chasing it down in the 7.30s the stock honestly said "ok Puent is out, lets go back up"  can some one please tell me why I suck so bad at this.  ATLEAST I DID NOT HAVE THE FUNDS TO SHORT IT LIKE I WANTED TO> 

Are you telling me i honestly am just that unlucky to get to work at 11 AM eastern time, and miss the SPEX buy, but arrive in time to see my 60% percent plummet and panic?  is there something with the stock market at 11?  It seems that i make most of my mistakes at that time ?

9 pm  WEll i have calmed down.  So has the stock obviously.  Back up above the line.   Bad luck once again.  Need to maintain and just keep the pace.  Never good to get set back several months of profits.  Its a good lesson to learn, DONT BE STUPID.

I remeber in the recent past that AS SOON AS I BUY...it goes down.  Or as SOON AS I SELL...it goes up.  At the time, I was at home for a spell due to an ankle operation.  As it turns out, I was watching intraday trading WAY TOO MUCH.  It's very bad for you!  And can cause one to make rash decisions...especially for the novice.

Lesson learned:  Don't watch intraday.


later...Jody

I agree. Don't watch intraday. Especially at 10 - 11 AM, I believe some call this the "10 AM effect". Most people trade between market open and this time, so stocks usually have larger movements, then settle, then move again at the end of the day.

I also missed SPEX and was really bummed out by it. It is so hard to follow Dave's picks with the time differences, him being in Europe and all. For me the market open is at 6:30 AM, and I'm not what you'd call an early morning bird, so it's really hard on me to be up at that time (I've still managed to do it almost every day in the last 3 months.)

I love it when Dave posts his updates at around 2:00 AM my time, that way I can place my orders and sleep like a baby. I can't tell you how many times I've kicked myself for oversleeping and not reading his picks before the open. Other times I'll go to bed at 3 or 4 AM just waiting for him to post, but he posts until right before the open, and since I went to bed so late, I oversleep. :(

I wish we could have a standard time for the picks, that way we could be more disciplined and not have to chase them aroud. We could even have 2 times, in case Dave misses the first one we'd know for sure he'd post at the second one. I don't know, someone might have a better idea. Just tought I'd give my 2 cents. :)

In at $7.46, I saw this as a very low risk opportunity so I jumped in.  We shall see.

Good luck...Jody

Quote from: David Randolph on November 30, 2005, 04:33:17 AM

But I see the stock trading at least $10 in no more than 2 weeks time, so I have to be in.

Do you still believe this David?  :) 

I got many questions and comments on XING, great, let's start:

Quote from: puenthouse on December 08, 2005, 11:14:32 AM
0300 AM Ok so im sick to my stomach. Had a trigger near support for 100 shares and i guess i hit 1000.  I had no clue.  so now i have 10,000  60% of my portfolio in this bad boy.  So while some are made money of of SPEX, i am getting crushed.  I do believe that I am no good at this.  I can not follow simple instructions  ( Dave i dont know how you do it, i buy and sell a littler later then you, but what a difference).   I would do better buying new cars and selling them a week later used. :'(

1213 pm  Ok i did not want to make a new post.  So after chasing it down in the 7.30s the stock honestly said "ok Puent is out, lets go back up"  can some one please tell me why I suck so bad at this.  ATLEAST I DID NOT HAVE THE FUNDS TO SHORT IT LIKE I WANTED TO> 

Are you telling me i honestly am just that unlucky to get to work at 11 AM eastern time, and miss the SPEX buy, but arrive in time to see my 60% percent plummet and panic?  is there something with the stock market at 11?  It seems that i make most of my mistakes at that time ?

9 pm  WEll i have calmed down.  So has the stock obviously.  Back up above the line.   Bad luck once again.  Need to maintain and just keep the pace.  Never good to get set back several months of profits.  Its a good lesson to learn, DONT BE STUPID.

Hello puenthouse, mistakes like this sometimes happen, but this is the second time you make one of these (making an error at quantity when placing an order) since we talk here at 3 Stocks. Maybe you're just under too much pressure to trade stocks, man. Also, as irod says, don't watch the intraday. It's of no use, just for entertainment purposes - but it will make you lose more money than win. Everything happens at the open and at the close. That's where one should take action if needed. Ok, in certain cases it may be useful to watch the intraday, but generally it does more harm than good. So do yourself a favor: pay more attention when placing orders and less attention (or none) to intraday action (it's easier to ignore the intraday if you're well diversified).

I'll write you a private message in a moment. And hey, you're an hero  :-*

Quote from: 422fwhp on December 08, 2005, 10:40:20 PM
I remember in the recent past that AS SOON AS I BUY...it goes down. Or as SOON AS I SELL...it goes up. At the time, I was at home for a spell due to an ankle operation. As it turns out, I was watching intraday trading WAY TOO MUCH. It's very bad for you! And can cause one to make rash decisions...especially for the novice.

Lesson learned: Don't watch intraday.


later...Jody

Definitely Jody.

Quote from: irod on December 08, 2005, 10:51:19 PM
I agree. Don't watch intraday. Especially at 10 - 11 AM, I believe some call this the "10 AM effect". Most people trade between market open and this time, so stocks usually have larger movements, then settle, then move again at the end of the day.

I also missed SPEX and was really bummed out by it. It is so hard to follow Dave's picks with the time differences, him being in Europe and all. For me the market open is at 6:30 AM, and I'm not what you'd call an early morning bird, so it's really hard on me to be up at that time (I've still managed to do it almost every day in the last 3 months.)

I love it when Dave posts his updates at around 2:00 AM my time, that way I can place my orders and sleep like a baby. I can't tell you how many times I've kicked myself for oversleeping and not reading his picks before the open. Other times I'll go to bed at 3 or 4 AM just waiting for him to post, but he posts until right before the open, and since I went to bed so late, I oversleep. :(

I wish we could have a standard time for the picks, that way we could be more disciplined and not have to chase them aroud. We could even have 2 times, in case Dave misses the first one we'd know for sure he'd post at the second one. I don't know, someone might have a better idea. Just tought I'd give my 2 cents. :)

I wish I had a standard too irod, I'm also very confused with hours here in Europe. Yesterday I was reading and writing at the Stock Picking Board until 4:30AM, looking for opportunities.

I believe the best way is for you to check your mail box at 9 AM New York time. You have time to read the updates and place your orders if you want. You haven't missed a thing if you didn't read things early, because the market was closed so nobody could use the information, right? You can simply follow 3 Stocks reading the website half an hour before the open ...

(well, that's 6 AM for you, I know it's hard, I used to wake up late too, but now I wake up at 6:15 everyday like a clock, it's pretty refreshing  :))

Quote from: 422fwhp on December 08, 2005, 11:06:56 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on November 30, 2005, 04:33:17 AM

But I see the stock trading at least $10 in no more than 2 weeks time, so I have to be in.

Do you still believe this David? :)

I don't know man, I wasn't expecting this fall, although fundamentals seem to be incredibly attractive, maybe something bearish is cooking behind the scenes. I have to trust the market and my plan. The stock should rebound immediately to remain bullish. If it is set to close below $7.50 I'll have to sell it, discipline is the most important thing in trading.

No matter how much you win, without discipline you'll lose it back to the market (plus more) later.

Quote from: puenthouse on December 08, 2005, 11:14:32 AM
0300 AM Ok so im sick to my stomach. Had a trigger near support for 100 shares and i guess i hit 1000.  I had no clue.  so now i have 10,000  60% of my portfolio in this bad boy.  So while some are made money of of SPEX, i am getting crushed.  I do believe that I am no good at this.  I can not follow simple instructions  ( Dave i don't know how you do it, i buy and sell a littler later then you, but what a difference).   I would do better buying new cars and selling them a week later used. :'(

puenthhouse,

I don't know if you heard about the that Japanese trader who made a similar mistake causing $224M lost in just a seconds  :o.

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/12/09/mizuho.error.reut/index.html


I still remember typing mistake I've done not so far ago closing a position rather then setting a stop. The funny thing is I didn't realize until I got a confirmation for the execution. You can imagine how surprised I was selling a winning position but lesson learned ;)


BTW I hope you doing well today ( XING is up so far  ;) )

ya that only makes it worse (4 me anyways).  all i asked for was nothing to go wrong and when i came into work it was down in the 30's where i panic sold it as you can see in the above.  Eh, i rather make this mistakes while im young, and thousands instead of later in my years with many thousdands i hope.  I just dont understand why it had to do that dip right then and there.  sure wish i made that mistake yesterday.  And that is how i know i am not good at doing this. 

My thoughts about Intraday trading:

If you have a specific stock / price / plan in mind you can catch "deals" during the day.

My most recent example was CKCM a couple weeks ago, I made a mistake selling out at 23.20 and was looking for a good re-entry point.

I saw the stock drop all the way to $21 during the day. Checked and saw no news, so grabbed 1,000 shares at 21.20

As for placing stops, I still don't like them due to manipulation and swins that occur.
ANLT on Friday is a great example. It dropped from 2.75 to 2.35 within minutes of the opening taking out every stop along the way. Within 15 minutes it was back up over 3.00.

The only time I could see using stops is if you do not have access to your investments for a few days and you are dealing with an issue that is so volatile (See EYII) there is possibility of considerable loss if you do not actively manage it.

Just My Opinion.

David, I say you give us another SPEX so puenthouse can be happy! (And so I can get in on the action this time.) >:D

Quote from: irod on December 10, 2005, 06:51:07 PM
David, I say you give us another SPEX so puenthouse can be happy! (And so I can get in on the action this time.) >:D

Lol irod, I'll try, I'll try  :)

puenthouse made the common mistake of taking intraday signals into account. It happens exactly when one has a larger position than it should. But it doesn't mean he's no good at this, I made that mistake sometimes too, and I don't consider myself bad at trading, or I would go and do some other thing.

XING made the traditional «intraday cut» of the support level and then closed higher and initiated a rebound on Friday. I hope this rebound continues for today (by the way puent, let XING rise, and buy another one that rises faster  :)).

I'll continue with my plan of holding XING, unless the stock is set to close below $7.5.

Nice recovery from the $7.5 support level. I believe this bull move will continue, as the general market will probably rise through the end of the year, and XING will surpass the previous high of $8.54.

I'll continue holding the stock for as long as it is set to close above the $7.5 important technical support.

Oh dear XING, I was afraid this was going to happen. Nobody trusts this management, it's really the only explanation why it doesn't go up. If they were smart enough to publish EPS figures and respect US accounting standards probably the stock price would be much higher.

Anyway, I'll keep my plan of holding, unless XING is set to close below the important $7.5 support level.

XING is exasperating  :P

Yesterday the CEO comes out and says:

«Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Presents its Forecast of the Financial Performance of its Operations for 2005
Expected Increase in Net Sales, Gross Profit and Income from Operations of 23%, 66.7% and 243.9%, Respectively, from Those for 2004
Dec 14, 2005 9:40:00 AM

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, Dec. 14 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today presented its forecast of the financial performance of its operations for the whole year of 2005. Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''In this last month of the year, I would like to share with the investor community my forecast about the financial performance of XING's operations for the whole year of 2005.

''Sales revenue is anticipated to be over US$300.0 million for 2005. This would represent a growth of 23.0% from last year's US$244.0 million. The last quarter of a year is usually better than the other quarters. From January to September, 2005, XING have achieved sales revenue of US$210.8 million, with a quarterly average of US$70.3 million. We expect to make about US$90 million for the final quarter, which means an increase of about 27% from the quarterly average of the first nine months. Purchase orders we received so far and the recent trend show that this is highly attainable. In the mobile phone business segment, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (''CECT''), a major subsidiary of XING, has been doing well. The multimedia phones, the pocket PC phones utilizing Microsoft's operating system and the Palm Treo 650 Smartphones that it recently launched have met with enthusiastic reception in the China market. The sale of the mobile phone handsets developed by Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry Ltd. (HZQXCI), another subsidiary of XING, has been encouraging. HZQXCI has secured numerous orders for its 'COSUN' brand mobile phone handsets in a distributor fair recently held in China.

''We anticipate gross profit margin of 15.0% for the whole year of 2005, compared with 11.1% for 2004. This would mean a forecast gross profit of US$45.0 million for 2005 compared with US$27.0 million for last year. This forecast increase in gross profit margin would result from the cost-saving measures carried out by CECT on its supply chain and the upgrading of the indoor phone product portfolio of HZQXCI to one which includes more and more high value-added products. ''We expect income from operations (before other income/expenses, interest, tax, minority interests and extraordinary items) to reach over US$28.2 million for 2005 (2004: US$8.2 million).

''The acquisition of a further 25% equity interest in CECT was completed in July this year. Our effective equity interest in it has increased to the current 72% from 52% before. XING therefore stands to reap increased benefits commensurate with its increased stake in CECT. So far as profitability is concerned, our shareholders will remember 2005 as the year in which XING turned the corner, after a period of consolidation necessary for the integration of the acquired CECT, and we expect it to continue in 2006 and thereafter.''»

Remember, the reported market cap of this company is $143.77M. So, revenue growth is 23% and the price to sales ratio is 0.48.

Gross profits go up 66.7% and the share price did nothing in the period.

It looks like nobody trusts this management. Everybody thinks (and they're probably right), XING is selling shares in the open market, and when the actual results come out, we'll see the dilution and we'll then acknowledge that the market cap is much higher.

I don't know how much dilution people are expecting, but probably a lot. It's a shame they don't publish quarterly EPS numbers. That explains why investors don't trust management, they've been burned before.

Now the question is: is dilution going to be higher or lower than expected? It's strange, but the stock has been rising lately, so maybe, just maybe, the company isn't selling all that much shares in the open market.

I'll give it the benefit of the doubt, for as long as the stock isn't set to close below $7.5. If it does, I'll dump it without regret and will be watching when the actual yearly earnings release comes out.

I'm almost positive that XING will indeed break $7.5 on the downside, nobody seems to trust the Chinese these days ... Chinese stocks have been coming down because their accounting policy allegedly isn't accurate.

Why don't they file a 10-K report like everybody else? I know that by law they don't have to, but would that cost all that much?

The cost in market cap terms seems to be huge.

Although this is true, looking at a medium term chart I find $7.5 so significant that I can't let go for as long as that level is defended. Therefore I'll continue holding XING for as long as it is set to close above $7.50.

It closed at $7.50 exactly today.

You said that "hold it as long as it closed above $7.50".

Does that include equal to $7.50?

Have you already sold?

Quote from: shawFund on December 17, 2005, 04:00:37 AM
It closed at $7.50 exactly today.

You said that "hold it as long as it closed above $7.50".

Does that include equal to $7.50?

Have you already sold?

I still hold it. But with the kind of press releases the company is releasing and the stock heading down I have no doubts that this is going to be a losing trade. When I see a loss, I'll take it before it gets big.

That's what I'll do today, selling XING around the open.

As planned, I sold XING at the open, what an ugly sell off it followed  :-\

After the close I'll move this thread to the «Previous 3 SOF Picks» Board.

I believe we have a good timing opportunity here, XING was on David's radar, showed up today on EliteG's scans, and also in my Volume/Breakout scans for the day... If that's not enough, Michael has a strong Fundamental opinion about XING (you can read more on this excellent XING thread here (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1241.msg42508#msg42508)).

XING is already a very popular stock among our T2T community, discussed on several threads and «covered» by many members, so we'll skip the presentations, and we go straight with our trading idea:

In the last two months, XING is developing an up-move, having a very steady ascending support working great. Today XING went up over increasing volume and had a breakout of its descending resistance, showing at the same time a nice relative strength against the market...
This kind of technical behaviour is very bullish, and sometimes can be interpreted as anticipation of good news...

Daily Chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17767;image)

5m Chart: (thanks EliteG ;))

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=17772;image)


A good confirmation for this breakout would be a close above $7.75, but we are not waiting for that, so we'll buy XING tomorrow at the open for the 3SOF portfolio.

Our trading plan will be further developed here, but the target of this breakout is $9.20, and we'll be setting a stop below the ascending support @ $7.15.

My best regards!


.

Quote from: Ramsburg on March 22, 2006, 01:45:30 AM
A good confirmation for this breakout would be a close above $7.75, but we are not waiting for that, so we'll buy XING tomorrow at the open for the 3SOF portfolio.

Do you mean to buy it today, March 22?

Maestro

Quote from: Maestro on March 22, 2006, 06:35:27 AM

Quote from: Ramsburg on March 22, 2006, 01:45:30 AM
A good confirmation for this breakout would be a close above $7.75, but we are not waiting for that, so we'll buy XING tomorrow at the open for the 3SOF portfolio.

Do you mean to buy it today, March 22?

Maestro

Hello Maestro,

Yes today at the open ;)

Thanks, Ramsburg. Bought it at the open at 7.75. Bought it at the open at 7.75 and am now going to place the stop order.

Maestro

Quote from: Maestro on March 22, 2006, 10:01:28 AM
Thanks, Ramsburg. Bought it at the open at 7.75. Bought it at the open at 7.75 and am now going to place the stop order.

Maestro

You made the same price we did ;)

Going in the right direction so far... Volume is good, and the breakout looks legit ;)

Missed it.Hoping to get a pull back

Interesting session, we got our breakout confirmation, and luckily a nice entry point at the opening ;)
Both, a close above $7.75 and $7.94 along with a very strong relative volume, make this a nice start for this trade.

Our target for short term is $9.20, and we have only one obstacle in the middle: which is the $8.54 barrier (last relative high from November's rally), after that I believe we can easily reach our target, and probably more.

There's also a risk on this trade, which is the common throwback after a breakout, but we'll skip this possibility for now.

So the trading plan will be the same with the addition of a selling order:
We are Holding XING, with a stop @ $7.15 and a limit sell order @ $9.20

Best regards,

Quote from: Ramsburg link=topic=3847.msg52872#msg52872
We are Holding XING, with a stop @ $7.15 and a limit sell order @ $9.20

I've got a problem with this with Ameritrade. With the stop order already in place, Ameritrade's system will not accept, in addition, a limit sell order, indicating that the quantity I want to sell exceeds my holding.

Does anyone using Ameritrade have experience with this and can advise me? Otherwise, I shall call Ameritrade later today.

Maestro

Maestro, Do you have Ameritrade Trade Triggers? You can have multiple orders with these

Thank you, AussieTrader. Funny enough, I came across that feature yesterday and thought I wouldn't need it.

So what I should do on Ameritrade, I now see, is place neither a stop order nor a limit sell order for XING but instead create two triggers, one to initiate the stop order if that condition (price 7.15) should be met, the other to initiate the market sell order if that condition price 9.20) should be met.

Is that what you are doing?

Maestro

AussieTrader, working on it now, I decided place the stop order, and in addition I created this trigger:

"If XING's last is greater or equal to 9
Sell xxx XING at limit $9.2"

Thanks for the help you gave me.

Maestro

P.S. My apologies to the moderators and other members, but while I have been trading stocks for decades I am new on 3SOF, with its greater finesse in trading, but within a few days I shall have learnt the ropes and shan't need to clutter the threads here with what must seem like rather silly questions to everybody else.

A normal day of profit taking from recent gains while approaching the $8.54 resistance level...
No reasons to worry yet, XING's technical pattern is very strong.

The trading plan will be the same:
Hold XING, with a stop @ $7.15 and a limit sell order @ $9.20

Friday was another positive session for XING, average volume, with the stock consolidating the recent breakout. No news, or events to report... I'm curious to see how it will be the reaction on $8.54 which is the main barrier on this trade, probably with some selling pressure on that price level...

The trading plan will be very similar, just updating the stop level, since it's related with an ascending support:
Hold XING, with a stop @ $7.25 and a limit sell order @ $9.20

Great day for XING ! Another breakout with good volume, setting a new high since 2004.

The target for this short term trade: $9.20....
Well, our target will probably look ridiculously low in a few months, taking in consideration not only the strong technical pattern that XING is developing on its long term chart, but also considering the trustable rumour about the expectable IPO of CECT (the main subsidiary of XING) to be announced at any moment.

About this IPO I have to quote Michael on a post published few weeks ago:

Quote from: Michael on March 07, 2006, 06:42:30 AM

I worked on the numbers yesterday but didn't save the spreadsheet so here is a short version:

XING owns 72% of CECT. An IPO will probably be priced at a forward PE of around 15 but lets be conservative and say 10.

CECT earned $29 million last year and That was a 100% increase in profit. Let's assume profit only increases with 20% this year (highly unlikely)

So with forward earnings of 34.8 million CECT's market Cap at a PE of 10 would be $348 million. XING share of this is 250 million (72%).

XING's market cap is 125 million. Not only is that half of CECT's expected value but this also include the rest of XINGS business.

XING is the second largest distributor of fixed phones and cordless phones in China. They have a low-end brand of mobile phones in addition to CECT. They make a number of other products.

Well the value of XING has always been therefore everybody to see but with the CECT IPO the valuation becomes ridiculous IMHO.

Technically speaking, XING was on a down trend since 2004 (consecutive lower highs), hitting the lows during 2005 on a double bottom pattern...  The first clear bullish signal was on the end of 2005, at that time XING did breakout the previous relative high, touching $8.54. Today XING traded above $8.54 with strong volume, and the next relative high it's $11.24, this gives a strong potential to any up move from here.

Well, we are trading short term, so we are keeping our plan for now, and dream about $11.24 later ;) :
Hold XING, with a stop @ $7.25 and a limit sell order @ $9.20

Best regards,

Frederick,

Very nice job on your XING analysis.  Applause

Quote from: Ramsburg on March 27, 2006, 11:33:28 PM
Great day for XING ! Another breakout with good volume, setting a new high since 2004.

The target for this short term trade: $9.20....
Well, our target will probably look ridiculously low in a few months, taking in consideration not only the strong technical pattern ...

XING does look strong, technically, and I've got targets of 9.62 and 9.96 IN PLAY.

1. W-Bottom Breakout on November 29, 2005:

That put Target: 9.96 IN PLAY.

Unfortunately, XING went back below the breakout, so the target went ON HOLD, but that wasn't all bad, given the nature of the correction that ensued.

2. Butterfly Pattern (in blue) and Bear Flag (in red) - November, 2005 - January, 2006.

The former also can be considered to be a normal "A-B-C" correction of the prior rally.

a. Leg C of the correction equaled Leg A at 6.43.  The low in January was 6.43 exactly.

b. The Bear Flag target was 6.40.

c. The .618 retracement was 6.365.

The fact that XING held at/near those targets indicates a "normal" correction, and the March 21 Symmetrical Triangle breakout (pattern in green) is confirmation of that.

The chances of you getting your 9.20 target look real good at this point.  Nice work, and good luck!

Finally XING, Finally MELF ;)

uc.

Yep, XING was (is) a good call.

I am going to hold this a little longer than the 3Stocks $9.20 target. Just think there is more to come with the CECT IPO and the nice momo building here.
Looks like that $9.20 may come as early as today.

Good Luck

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 28, 2006, 07:56:07 AM
Frederick,

Very nice job on your XING analysis.  Applause

Quote from: Ramsburg on March 27, 2006, 11:33:28 PM
Great day for XING ! Another breakout with good volume, setting a new high since 2004.

The target for this short term trade: $9.20....
Well, our target will probably look ridiculously low in a few months, taking in consideration not only the strong technical pattern ...

XING does look strong, technically, and I've got targets of 9.62 and 9.96 IN PLAY.

1. W-Bottom Breakout on November 29, 2005:

That put Target: 9.96 IN PLAY.

Hi Melf,

Thanks for the great input here! I'm really glad to have you back ;)

When I started to design the trading plan for XING, I opted for a short term position mood, in this case the projection of the symmetrical triangle (with semi-log charting) to $9.20, not a very ambitious plan taking in consideration the big picture on XING...

Now you talked about the ABC correction, and that makes me even think that we are probably just starting a W3 from a significant Elliot move ;)

Regards !

Quote from: usedcasting on March 28, 2006, 08:39:38 AM
Finally XING, Finally MELF ;)

uc.

Yes, Finally MELF ;) great !!!

Quote from: AussieTrader on March 28, 2006, 08:57:13 AM
Yep, XING was (is) a good call.

I am going to hold this a little longer than the 3Stocks $9.20 target. Just think there is more to come with the CECT IPO and the nice momo building here.
Looks like that $9.20 may come as early as today.

Good Luck

Hi Aussie,

You are probably doing the best decision here...  ::)
But even if we sell @ 9.20, I'm sure this is not going to be our last trade on XING... ;)

regards !

XING started the morning with a gap up, and big surge, almost catching our selling order (6 ticks), and losing a lot of momentum during the rest of the session, closing unchanged. Not a particular good candle, but the market was not helping anyway...

We have no reasons to change our plan for now, since we have real good motives (Technicals and Fundamentals):

Hold XING, with a stop @ $7.30 and a limit sell order @ $9.20

I must confess something: ;)
Every time XING approaches our target / sell order, I think to myself: «I hope it doesn't hit our sell order yet, so I can change the trading plan and set a higher exit point for this position»...

I hate to change plans, and I always say: «Plan the Trade, and Trade the Plan»... but a Trading Plan must be also flexible to new inputs.
The $9.10/$9.14 level is now acting as a resistance level, this zone has stopped XING from going higher 2 times in 3 days. At the same time, XING is holding very well, and probably just consolidating for a new rally.
The problem with our current trading plan, is that if we sell XING at $9.20 we'll be just selling on the middle of a new breakout to new highs... so we have two options:
1) We set a lower sell price
2) We delete our sell order and wait for a breakout.

We have to choose option 2), taking also in consideration our Long Term mood on this stock, the rumors about the CECT IPO and the general bullish outlook on this stock. By doing so (I mean, increasing the risk), we'll also be setting a new stop price.

So the new trading plan is:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.75 (our entry price)

Best regards,

Not a good Friday for XING... a big red candle :-(
Once again, XING traded above $9 and started to drop. This will make a potential breakout a very strong signal.

$8.54 is the short term support, and XING ended the session a little above that level, so even with this ugly red candle, the main pattern is still untouched.

We'll keep the same trading plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.75

Another day on the range and another good reaction on the $8.54 support level. XING is clearly consolidating the recent gains, and almost ready for a new breakout and a big move above our first $9.20 target.

No special comments for today... we are just waiting with no worries ;)
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.75

Hi Rams,

This is such a great stock with lots of potential. I would like to add more shares to the stake if we are setting a higer target. Could you discuss a bit of a safe re-entry point?

Thank you much for your input,
Rafael ::)

Quote from: Ramsburg on April 04, 2006, 12:19:28 AM
XING is clearly consolidating the recent gains, and almost ready for a new breakout and a big move above our first $9.20 target.

There's your first target of 9.20, Frederick.  Applause.

 :o

It hit the first one,

;D ;)

Still holding! ;)

Should we move the stop price below the 8.5 area to protect profits?

Quote from: mexirafa on April 06, 2006, 10:44:21 AM
:o

It hit the first one,

;D ;)

Still holding! ;)

Should we move the stop price below the 8.5 area to protect profits?

Yes, our plan is to move our stop higher step by step ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 06, 2006, 10:31:04 AM

Quote from: Ramsburg on April 04, 2006, 12:19:28 AM
XING is clearly consolidating the recent gains, and almost ready for a new breakout and a big move above our first $9.20 target.

There's your first target of 9.20, Frederick. Applause.

Thanks Melf ;)

Quote from: mexirafa on April 04, 2006, 08:50:03 AM
Hi Rams,

This is such a great stock with lots of potential. I would like to add more shares to the stake if we are setting a higer target. Could you discuss a bit of a safe re-entry point?

Thank you much for your input,
Rafael ::)

Hi Merixafa,

Sorry for not replying that question, i forgot  ::)... Well, answer was already on my analysis, XING was trading a range, the low range is always the good spot to add more if thats the plan.
Not sure if you added more and what price ?

Thank you Ramsburg for the update,

I added some more yesterday before the end of the day at 8.90. ;D

rafael


8)

Frederick,

Today's Descending Triangle breakout on the print above 9.00 puts a target of 9.64 IN PLAY, which reinforces the Symmetrical Triangle target of 9.62, already IN PLAY.

Math for the Descending Triangle:

High: 9.14

Lows: Identical, at 8.50

9.14 - 8.50 = 0.64 points

Breakout was a print above 9.00 + 0.64 points = Target: 9.64 IN PLAY

Note: Today's price action not yet shown on chart.

XING currently is BID 9.19...ASK Frederick's 9.20    :D  ;)

EDIT: I corrected the math.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 06, 2006, 03:25:27 PM
XING currently is BID 9.19...ASK Frederick's 9.20    :D  ;)

hehehe.... not anymore... $9.20 ? never heard of it  >:D

Thanks for your technical update Melf ! (applaud)

Quote from: mexirafa on April 06, 2006, 01:54:49 PM
Thank you Ramsburg for the update,

I added some more yesterday before the end of the day at 8.90. ;D

rafael


8)

Looks like you made a good decision Mexirafa ;) 

Lets rock ! ;)

Dont want to be a nuisance but think we should be crystal clear about a suggested selling price. In several messages it was set at 9.20, but seems there was an intraday change in the
strategy and now it's 9.74 althought I learned about this correction after the close.

Unfortunately I had set my order according to the previous instructions and now see XING is still in the portfolio.  Wish best of luck to those still holding this share and make money

Nevertheless if Ramsburg is leading this trade, can other relevant and respectfull traders change the targets even if I don't question their knowledge & experience & excellent professional work??. To make it short, to whom should we pay attention. 8)

hehehe.... not anymore... $9.20 ? never heard of it AT 3.25PM  :o

Rgds

jorgegr 

Jorge-

The plan was never changed intra-day.  If you go back on the thread you will see that Rams updated his plan after market closed last Thursday 03/30 and included this update on the daily newsletter the next day (XING - HOLD, unless it prints our stop @ $7.75).
Haven't you been receiving the daily newsletter?

Quote from: jorgegr on April 06, 2006, 08:11:45 PM
Dont want to be a nuisance but think we should be crystal clear about a suggested selling price. In several messages it was set at 9.20, but seems there was an intraday change in the
strategy and now it's 9.74 althought I learned about this correction after the close.

Unfortunately I had set my order according to the previous instructions and now see XING is still in the portfolio.  Wish best of luck to those still holding this share and make money

Nevertheless if Ramsburg is leading this trade, can other relevant and respectfull traders change the targets even if I don't question their knowledge & experience & excellent professional work??. To make it short, to whom should we pay attention. 8)





hehehe.... not anymore... $9.20 ? never heard of it AT 3.25PM  :o

Rgds

jorgegr 

bocasva:

I receive usual daily updates Until March 30th they mentioned "limit sell order @ 9.20"
From March 31st onwards the limit was not mentiuoned anymore in the updates.

With the exception of Melf Elf no specific target was mentioned by others.

Although found this statementdated March 30 th which I suppose is what you are referring
so we have two options:
1) We set a lower sell price
2) We delete our sell order and wait for a breakout.

We have to choose option 2), taking also in consideration our Long Term mood on this stock, the rumors about the CECT IPO and the general bullish outlook on this stock. By doing so (I mean, increasing the risk), we'll also be setting a new stop price.

Cant find specifically  when a new limit was officially mentioned. Could you help me find it.??

THX

jorgegr

Quote from: jorgegr on April 06, 2006, 09:16:39 PM
bocasva:

I receive usual daily updates Until March 30th they mentioned "limit sell order @ 9.20"
From March 31st onwards the limit was not mentiuoned anymore in the updates.

With the exception of Melf Elf no specific target was mentioned by others.

Although found this statementdated March 30 th which I suppose is what you are referring
so we have two options:
1) We set a lower sell price
2) We delete our sell order and wait for a breakout.

We have to choose option 2), taking also in consideration our Long Term mood on this stock, the rumors about the CECT IPO and the general bullish outlook on this stock. By doing so (I mean, increasing the risk), we'll also be setting a new stop price.

Cant find specifically when a new limit was officially mentioned. Could you help me find it.??

THX

jorgegr

Sure, I was referring to this post, at the very end he states to HOLD unless getting stopped out at $7.75.

Quote from: Ramsburg on March 30, 2006, 10:24:11 PM
I must confess something: ;)
Every time XING approaches our target / sell order, I think to myself: «I hope it doesn't hit our sell order yet, so I can change the trading plan and set a higher exit point for this position»...

I hate to change plans, and I always say: «Plan the Trade, and Trade the Plan»... but a Trading Plan must be also flexible to new inputs.
The $9.10/$9.14 level is now acting as a resistance level, this zone has stopped XING from going higher 2 times in 3 days. At the same time, XING is holding very well, and probably just consolidating for a new rally.
The problem with our current trading plan, is that if we sell XING at $9.20 we'll be just selling on the middle of a new breakout to new highs... so we have two options:
1) We set a lower sell price
2) We delete our sell order and wait for a breakout.

We have to choose option 2), taking also in consideration our Long Term mood on this stock, the rumors about the CECT IPO and the general bullish outlook on this stock. By doing so (I mean, increasing the risk), we'll also be setting a new stop price.

So the new trading plan is:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.75 (our entry price)

Best regards,

Believe you did not answer my question. You seem to remark the stop limit
(which is not in discussion) and I'm talking about the selling price.

Anyway I think this is getting us  nowhere and its full period for me.

Ramsburg: Will contact you by private message because I only want to improve the rules and not get in unnecessary  discussions with other fellow traders.

BRgds

jorgegr

Jorgegr,

The plan was never changed intraday. Our daily email with instructions, have all our instructions, if we dont include a limit sell order there, it means we are not selling, but its very important that users read our updates, not just the email.

In this update I state we are changing the plan, and I explain why:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3847.msg54580#msg54580
The next email after that reflects the new plan (without the selling price at 9.20)

We never change plans intraday, everything we publish about our strategy is made before market action. I recommend everybody to read the updates, not only the daily email.

best regards,

After this quick consolidation above $8.54, XING is back in action ;)

Today XING closed above our initial target ($9.20), performing a new breakout with volume increasing. This chart now looks stronger than ever, and we expect a continuation of this up move for the short run.

We can add a short term target near $9.65, provided by a triangular short term breakout (already explained a few posts above by Melf Elf, thanks Melf ! ;)), but we are not setting a sell order yet.... The market is expecting some news about a potential IPO of CECT, and this rumour is working great in terms of price action, no news yet, which is great ;)... very likely XING will be trading above $10 next week, and we want to be there to watch ;)

Our plan will be updated today; we'll be setting a higher stop reducing the risk on this trade. $8.54, was the previous high, and worked perfectly as a short term support, so our new stop will be below that level for now.

The new plan is:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35  (no selling order in place for now)

Best regards !

XING is on the run... ;)

We saw Friday's session as a consolidation candle, great intraday pattern showing a lot of strength on this stock, XING was able to reverse its intraday trend even facing a red day on the general markets.

We expect to see XING trading double digits during the week.

We are not setting a sell order yet, so the plan remains:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35  (no selling order in place for now)

Best regards !

Big sell off on the market, forcing XING to return to last week's trading range on what we think is just a correction movement.

The $8.50/$8.60 price level is a strong support, and we expect it to hold XING for now.

For profit protection, our plan seems to be adequate, taking in consideration the stop is a little below the support level:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

This is just a simple chart update.

XING is holding on the support level ($8.54), we expect some upside reaction soon, but we have a stop in place in case our expected scenario fails.

The plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

I'm not sure what to say on this XING update ;)

We love the stock, we have a stop profit here, so our risk is to profit only 7.8% on this trade, and we expect to see XING trading double digits very soon. Of course we can be wrong, but there's no risk here, so we'll just keep the same plan (we can only move the stop higher after a new high on this trade), otherwise we'll be compromising some important room this trade has for price development):
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

PS: Anybody trading XING options ?

Best regards !

Hi Ramsburg,
Thank you much for the update.

Well, this mornign we are back to our original target (9.20). Do you advice getting some partial profits or continue holding?

thank you muvh for your input,
rafael ???

Quote from: mexirafa on April 17, 2006, 10:29:15 AM
Hi Ramsburg,
Thank you much for the update.

Well, this mornign we are back to our original target (9.20). Do you advice getting some partial profits or continue holding?

thank you muvh for your input,
rafael ???

Hi Merixafa,

My plan is to sell far above $10, probably with news on the CECT IPO. But I understand anyone taking profits now.

best regards,

It's really hard to watch a nice profit in the morning turn into a significant loss during the afternoon... But the overall market behaviour encouraged some profit taking on XING, and that's normal...

No reasons to stop thinking about double digits for now... XING is a winner  >:D

We now have XING near the support again ($8.54), we expect it to hold any price fall, our stop order is in place just in case something goes wrong:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

XING is clearly consolidating this new price level above its $8.54 support.... One thing we are sure, people have been buying strong near $8.54, and selling strong above $9.00 ;)

This trade is getting «boring», but we continue to have a very strong sentiment about XING, and that it will be trading double digits very soon... Like said before, not only the strong technicals on a long term overview, but also the prospects of some interesting Fundamental developments, so we must continue to hold XING for now.

There is no special technical update, it could be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern for short term, but our goal here goes beyond this pattern.

Our plan will be just the same:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

Best regards !

Hey Rambsburg,

Last friday we closed below the 20-MA and 13-EMA. Volume, MACD, Force keep declining. Down in the A.H @ 8.71. Is this something we should be worried about,perhaps time to exit momentarily??

thanks,
rafael ;)

Quote from: mexirafa on April 23, 2006, 10:52:41 PM
Hey Rambsburg,

Last friday we closed below the 20-MA and 13-EMA. Volume, MACD, Force keep declining. Down in the A.H @ 8.71. Is this something we should be worried about,perhaps time to exit momentarily??

thanks,
rafael ;)

Hi Merixafa,

Thanks for your input.
About the current short term technical situation of XING, yes, the outlook is not very impressive; some indicators are not ok right now. But the main point is that we didn't buy XING because of any ema or macd signal, so we are not selling it because of these indicators.

We are expecting a huge run on XING at any moment, and we don't want to lose our position here... That's why we didn't sold it at $9.20 like planed when we had the chance, that's why we didn't sold it above $9 a couple of times after (knowing there's a resistance there), and that's why we are risking such a room of profit in here.

$8.54 has been acting as a strong support, an active price that is related with our plan, so we only «quit» XING if that support is broken, never before that.
By the way, if the $8.54 support is broken, we expect a correction down to $7.80 (an ascending support), probably a good place to re-buy XING if we get stopped on this trade.

So our plan will be the same:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

Best regards,

Thank you very much Ramsburg for your input. Your bigger picture of the play makes way more sense. ;)

Not an interesting session for XING, it just had another reaction on the support level. Volume was low, and also not interesting.

We'll keep the plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

Best regards,

Hey Frederick,

Hope you are doing well.

Question.

XING formed an interesting candle today closer to the support level (8.54 area).

Is the past consolidation considered some kind of a triple bottom forming an M shape??

If so, today's candle would be a bullish sign of a rebound. The only thing I didn't like is that it didn't close above prevoius close (only a couple of cents away)

Thank you very much in advance for your response,

Rafael

Quote from: Ramsburg on April 25, 2006, 04:36:18 AM
Not an interesting session for XING, it just had another reaction on the support level. Volume was low, and also not interesting.

Frederick,

...and another reaction at the support level.  ;D

The past month of trading "looks like" a H&S Top, except the Right Shoulder is wider than the Left Shoulder (the Left Shoulder should be wider) and the high of the Right Shoulder is higher than the Left Shoulder (the high of the Left Shoulder should be higher than the Right Shoulder).

The lows of 8.50...8.50...8.50...8.52 definitely looks like a neckline  ;D

Since it "looks like it," I'd say that if 8.50 month-long support gets broken, Target: 7.49 would be IN PLAY.  It might not get that low since XING is bullish, but I think there will be some downside, possibly swift,  if players see that key short-term  8.50 support isn't support any more.

Math:

9.51 (high) - 8.50 (support)  = 1.01 points

A break of 8.50 - 1.01 points = Target: 7.49 IN PLAY

Well, definitely $8.50 is supporting XING's price for the last month, yesterday's reaction was not so active as the previous reactions, volume was low, and like Melf said, this is looking like a H&S pattern (which is not good).

We trust the $8.50 ($8.54) support level, and our trading plan is adjusted to it, we also agree that if the $8.54 level is broken we should see a price drop at least to $7.80.

Believing XING has a tremendous upside potential, we have been trying to keep this position in play as hard as we can, and even if we get stopped, I'm sure we'll be back to XING soon.

Our plan must be the same:
Hold XING with a stop @ $8.35

Best regards,

Out at 8.34,
rafael :)

I wonder what happened at 10:57 for XING to drop like that and stop us out. Any bad news?

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=20283;image)

Quote from: Maestro on April 27, 2006, 11:17:26 AM
I wonder what happened at 10:57 for XING to drop like that and stop us out. Any bad news?

maestro,

That was technical selling, on the break of 8.50 support.  A lot of "technical" stops there.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 27, 2006, 06:26:35 AM
The lows of 8.50...8.50...8.50...8.52 definitely looks like a neckline ;D

I think there will be some downside, possibly swift, if players see that key short-term 8.50 support isn't support any more.

The 8.50 area had been support on FOUR occasions, so when it got taken out, XING went from 8.50 to 8.18 very swiftly; in a single minute. 

WAtch XING today, this news may get some action going. I was stopped out yesterday also, but this investment shows considerable financial interest in XING future.

I  bought back my position today. I think this news will be the catalyst to get XING on the move again

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. to Sell USD40 Million's Worth of Convertible Bonds to Two Strategic Investors, Including One Strategic Investor That Recently Purchased 3 Million Shares of Common Stock from the Company
PR Newswire - April 28, 2006 08:30

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, April 28, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) announced today that it had recently signed binding agreements to sell to two strategic investors USD40 million's worth of convertible bonds (CB). According to the agreements, the holders of the CB may, at its option within 3 years of the closing of the deal, convert the CB into common stock of XING at a conversion price equal to 115% of the volume-weighted average price of the XING common stock for the 5 days prior to the signing of the term sheet (subject to certain conditions), or shares of the common stock of Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co., Ltd. (QXMC) in the event of its IPO at a price equal to 7 times QXMC's 2005 consolidated earnings per share. QXMC holds 90% of the equity in CEC Telecom Co. Ltd. (CECT), and is itself currently 80% owned by XING.

The proceeds of the financing will be used for general corporate and working capital purposes in order to better help the Company achieve its goals for 2006 and beyond, especially CECT's 3G development operations.

The closing of the transaction is subject to certain conditions precedent which include among other things the approval of the stockholders of Qiao Xing Universal. Three closely-related shareholders, which together hold a sizable block of XING shares, have signed Voting Agreements with the Company, committing to voting all their shares in favor of the sale by the Company of USD40 million's worth of convertible bonds.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''One of the two strategic investors has recently completed two rounds of investment in the Company by purchasing 3 million shares of common stock of XING. Now, it has signed binding agreements to buy 90% of the USD40 million's worth of bonds with the potential of their being converted into common stock of XING or common stock of QXMC in the event of an initial public offering. We believe that this sequence of events demonstrates this strategic investor's confidence in XING and XING's ability to attract institutional investors.

''With the funds raised from the sale of 3 million shares of common stock and to be raised from this proposed USD40 million convertible bond sale, Qiao Xing Universal Telephone's operating subsidiaries CECT and Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. are poised to achieve even greater success in the fields of high-end mobile phone handsets, indoor telephone sets with value added features and VoIP terminal products.''

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state.

About Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. is one of China's largest manufacturers and distributors of telecommunications products. The Company has grown its net sales from approximately $46.4 million in 1997 to more than $244 million in 2004. The Company's product portfolio includes telecommunications terminals and related products, including fixed wireless phones, VoIP telephones, advanced mobile phones, PDAs and consumer electronic products, including MP3 players, cash registers and set-top-box products. This includes the world's first model of dual mode and dual call waiting GSM/CDMA smartphone, the 'CECT CoolPAD 728.' The Company has established

2co-operative relationships with leading telecom and software companies for their China strategy, including Microsoft and Palm, aiding success for its 'High End Mobile Phone Strategy'. XING currently distributes over 260 models of corded and cordless telephones and is one of China's largest distributors of indoor phones. The Company has built a strong distribution network comprised of more than 5,000 retail stores throughout China and has established partnerships with major retailers in Europe, North America and Latin America, including Bellsouth and Wal-mart. For more details, please visit http://www.cosun-xing.com

I'm with you on this AussieTrader. Nice move so far, resistance comes at $8.80 and we did get a bounce off of it.

Good luck!

uc.

Following the news release regarding investment and 'possible' CECT IPO XING touched the 50sma and powered back above resistance and near 52 week high close on great volume. Technically very strong and should provide perfect stage for follow through to new highs next week. The action prior to the financing release was classic shakeout activity, interestingly seems there is 2M+ shares short on a current 18.6M shares outstanding.

I think the news has negated what did appear H&S top as Melf correctly pointed out a few days back. News can always change the chart.

Good luck to those back in.

Breakout continuation on nice volume.

Quote from: AussieTrader on April 29, 2006, 12:21:26 AM
I think the news has negated what did appear H&S top as Melf correctly pointed out a few days back. News can always change the chart.

Good luck to those back in.

Aussie,

By the time that I was convinced that the rally back above 8.50 looked for real, it had gotten too far away from me, and I decided not to chase it.  The 9.62 target MADE without me.   >:(

Nice job catching the rip to the upside early.  Applause.  Also applause to Frederick for the original pick.  A win is a win.  ;)

Thanks Melf, keep up your good work on the boards

Aussie and Melf,

You guys have a target in mind on this recent breakout?

Quote from: bocasva on May 03, 2006, 10:14:30 AM
Aussie and Melf,

You guys have a target in mind on this recent breakout?

bocasva,

The last of my targets from the November, 2005 and March, 2006 pattern breakouts, 9.96 MADE yesterday.

When the neckline at 8.50 broke last Thursday, I thought that my 9.62 target was an "almost MADE," (the high of the pattern was 9.51), and that we'd correct some more on that breakdown, then make the upside targets later.

The fundamental news reported by Aussie (applauded) trumped the technicals (the break of 8.50 put a downside target of 7.49 IN PLAY) as we now know.  XING  got only to 8.08, then took off to the upside, making both the 9.62 and 9.96 targets sooner, rather than later.

The Right Shoulder of the April H&S Top pattern, as you might remember, has two defects: it's too tall and too wide, however, it sure looks like a H&S pattern, and it acted like one when 8.50 broke to the downside.  I think we got to 8.18 in just one minute when it broke to the downside.  "Everybody knew 8.50 was support."

Since we've taken out the high (9.51) of the H&S pattern, that puts Target: 10.52 IN PLAY, as long as XING remains above 9.51.

Math:

9.51 - High of the Head of the H&S pattern
8.50 - Neckline

9.51 - 8.50 = 1.01 points added to the breakout above 9.51 = Target: 10.52 IN PLAY

Reinforcing that idea is the fact that, after Monday's breakout above 9.51, Tuesday's low was 9.52.  "Former resistance at 9.51 became support," which is good.

If XING goes back below 9.51, the 10.52 target goes ON HOLD.  If XING goes back below 8.50, the 10.52 target gets CANCELLED.

Since the 9.62 and 9.96 targets have MADE, you might want to consider taking some profits, if you haven't already.  Just a suggestion.  "Take profits when targets get MADE."

On the upside, XING could go much higher than 10.52.  That's just what's IN PLAY from the H&S pattern breakout.

Good luck!

Thanks Melf, really appreciate it.

Not setting a sell target just yet, put my stop at $9.49 just below the breakout.

Thanks Melf Elf for your detailed answer, it really helps out a lot(and thanks to Aussie, too).  I sold 1/2 my position today at open to protect some profits and will let the other 1/2 ride as far up as XING wants to (have placed a 9.49 stop just in case it doesn't work out).

Quote from: bocasva on May 04, 2006, 11:06:24 AM
I sold 1/2 my position today at open to protect some profits

bocasva,

You caught the high of the day so far, and that was a good idea to protect some of your profits.  Applause.

Quote
and will let the other 1/2 ride as far up as XING wants to (have placed a 9.49 stop just in case it doesn't work out).

There you go!  Aussie's plan sounds like a good one.

Good luck.  I hope you guys make MORE $$$.  ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 04, 2006, 05:02:34 AM
9.51 - 8.50 = 1.01 points added to the breakout above 9.51 = Target: 10.52 IN PLAY

bocasva, Aussie, and usedcasting,

Al-l-mos-st got the 10.52.  :D  Nice going, guys.  Applaud you all.

Quote from: AussieTrader on May 04, 2006, 10:48:19 AM
Not setting a sell target just yet, put my stop at $9.49 just below the breakout.

Yesterday XING tested support and found it nice and strong, touching almost exactly the rising 9ema. My stop was at $9.49 and I will revise upwards following yesterdays action later today. My strategy with XING is to let it run for now I don't have an exit target....yet.

Quote from: AussieTrader on May 09, 2006, 08:54:09 AM

Quote from: AussieTrader on May 04, 2006, 10:48:19 AM
Not setting a sell target just yet, put my stop at $9.49 just below the breakout.

Yesterday XING tested support and found it nice and strong, touching almost exactly the rising 9ema. My stop was at $9.49 and I will revise upwards following yesterdays action later today. My strategy with XING is to let it run for now I don't have an exit target....yet.

Same thing here, I've moved my stop to 9.89..... >:D

stopped out at $9.87 >:(

Me too ( I had moved my stop up since my last pst), no worries a nice profit locked in and will keep on watch for moves above new resistance  zone $10.60 area.

Quote from: bocasva on May 12, 2006, 09:52:45 AM
stopped out at $9.87 >:(

bocasva and Aussie,

Hey, no MAD faces on that trade, bocasva, you greedy little devil!   :D  >:D

You and Aussie did a very nice, well-disciplined job of trading XING.  Applaud you both for a job well done!

Our last trade on XING was kind of frustrating, we had good entry timing, our initial trading plan was to sell it @ $9.20, and we changed it because we were expecting to sell XING above $10, but we were caught on technical trap and we lost our position with a minor profit just a few days before XING gone double digits :-( the market loves to punish the «weak hands» and unfortunately our hands were weak....

After that we've been monitoring XING closely, waiting for the right time to get back on this position. The market has been severe with XING, this recent correction pulled XING bellow its ascending support level last Friday, but XING managed to close above this reference, showing some signs of selling exhaustion.

Our Fundamental expectations on XING remain very optimistic, we expect good earnings to be released, and news about a potential IPO on CECT soon.

We'll buy XING today in the morning.

PS: XING will be also added to the 3SOV Portfolio (Michael will manage that position with an independent trading strategy)


.

XING.... I don't think XING is ready to sing again, 2 red candle printed in the weekly chart will likely follow another one.

My take on XING it will build a base from here before deciding to take-off ;) JMHO ;)

Read also: XING on 3SOF Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3847.msg62951#msg62951).

After the last time we bought XING for the 3SOF Portfolio, the team agreed that XING was a value stock and needed to be on the 3SOV portfolio, we were just waiting for the right timing.

For Fundamental and Technical motives already discussed, we are adding XING to the 3SOV Portfolio.

We'll buy XING in the morning.

PS: Michael will manage this position from here.

I think XING is still a falling knife right now.  The overall market was a lot different when it was bouncing off the ascending support line than it it is now (or has been lately).  It has a good chance of testing the 200-EMA down at 7.60 first.  If it bounces off that and makes a white candle the next day, then I would get in.  I think I'll wait a day or two on this one.

Leaira

dang terliso, you seem to be on a hot streak. everything you say seems to come true after i buy. I got in Xing at 8.05 :(
Guess I should pick up some more now that its a 7.87

I didn't expect to see XING retrace so hard these past few sessions. A touch of the 200ema makes for a nice low risk entry.

I took a position based on that support (I had taken a nice profit on the recent run up few days back), I don't like this market right now for new long positions (breakout wise) but for stocks returning to decent support levels entries can be made with tight stops and good risk reward. Timing being the key really.

XING had a 100K block trade at $8.06 after hours which went through at the ASK, which is interesting. Shares short are around 2M ( as of April).

My trading plan is that XING will recover with news on CECT, earnings and guidance over the coming few days. So will see.

Good Luck.

To pick stocks these days is a hazardous occupation  ;)

When I still put my neck on the block with XING it is due to the strong fundamentals of the company and even though their reporting is horrendous it is actually possible to get a good feeling of their business.

A few facts:

• CECT which is 72% owned by XING earned 29 million USD last year. (XING's share 21 million USD). They Increased earnings with 100%
• XING has confirmed that they consider an IPO for CECT (the recent drop in XING's share price makes it very likely to happen!)  With a veeeeery conservative trailing PE of 10 for an IPO the market cap of CECT will be 290 million USD. (XING's share 209 million USD – compared to XING's market cap of 133 million USD.
• CECT is gaining market share every month and is steadily climbing the ladder of the most popular handsets in China.
• COSUN (XING's other major subsidiary) is also on a roll. They announced a 35 million USD in September 2005 for their GSM handsets to be delivered before the end of 2005.

The market knows these great fundamentals in fact this is why the stock had a run to 10 when the news about the CECT IPO was officially confirmed at the end of April.

The sentiment of the market has changed since then and the horrendous reporting makes XING a very easy target for scare tactics from the short community. I believe this represent an excellent buying opportunity and even though I am holding quite a lot of shares back from the times when XING traded at 6.45 I added to my position today (XING is an old favorite of mine. You can read more here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1241.0)

We should see earnings for 2005 and Q1 2006 being announced soon. I will put a stop on this trade at 6.8 and will set a target after earnings is announced. The trading the last couple of days is not a reflection of the fundamentals but rather a result of a bearish market combined with a lack of transparency in XING's reporting.

Thanks for your input Aussie ;)

Update:
Crazy session on XING today, but with a bullish Outlook.

XING had some kind of selling exhaustion with an ugly drop to $7.55 after our entry, but quickly recovering to the highs of the day above $8.00.

The support and this technical level are creating some buying pressure here, and we expect to watch a significant move soon.

We are not setting a stop yet, so the trading plan is just:
Hold XING

Note: Also read Michael's update for XING (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5758.msg63038#msg63038) on 3SOV Portfolio.

Best regards,

XING's technical pattern is not looking so good right now... XING followed the Chinese markets, and closed down below the support area.
The support was broken today; it was a significant drop although with low volume, and closing near the ema-200.

We have to give some room to this trade, to eliminate any «market» noise, but we need to set a stop price now.

Trading Plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.15

Regards,

Quote from: AussieTrader on May 22, 2006, 12:16:59 PM
I didn't expect to see XING retrace so hard these past few sessions. A touch of the 200ema makes for a nice low risk entry.

I took a position based on that support (I had taken a nice profit on the recent run up few days back), I don't like this market right now for new long positions (breakout wise) but for stocks returning to decent support levels entries can be made with tight stops and good risk reward. Timing being the key really.

I stopped out of XING for small gain today, I had moved my stop up to just below the ascending support line as I didn't want to hold on a pullback through what I see as double support (being that support line and 200ema below it). Will monitor for re-entry depending on how XING shapes up from here.
I have my trades on a tight leash in this current climate and if that means stopping out for small gains I am OK with that. I can / will lways look to re-enter when the chart shapes up again.

This looks promising as far as disclosure.


Qiao Xing Universal Updates its Financial Disclosure Plan
Thursday May 25, 9:00 am ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, May 25 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today updates its financial disclosure plan to the following:

    1.We aim to release 2005 earnings in the Form 20-F in the middle of June
       and certain key financial data for the first quarter of 2006 shortly
       afterwards.

    2.Starting from the first half of 2006, we will provide more
       comprehensive half-yearly financial reporting, which will consist of a
       consolidated balance sheet and a semi-annual consolidated income
       statement with information about earnings per share.

    3.The first and the third quarter, the Company will continue to
       release certain key financial data for the year to date as we have done
       since the first quarter of 2004.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. said, ''We appreciate the need of investors for information about the Company, especially financial one, on which to base their investment decisions, and will continue our effort to improve on the transparency in our communication with the investor community.''

uc.

Good news for XING (thanks usedcasting :)):

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060525/cnth013.html?.v=8

QuoteQiao Xing Universal Updates its Financial Disclosure Plan
Thursday May 25, 9:00 am ET
HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, May 25 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING ) today updates its financial disclosure plan to the following:
   
     1.We aim to release 2005 earnings in the Form 20-F in the middle of June and certain key financial data for the first quarter of 2006 shortly afterwards.

    2.Starting from the first half of 2006, we will provide more comprehensive half-yearly financial reporting, which will consist of a consolidated balance sheet and a semi-annual consolidated income statement with information about earnings per share.

    3.The first and the third quarter, the Company will continue to release certain key financial data for the year to date as we have done since the first quarter of 2004.
Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. said, ''We appreciate the need of investors for information about the Company, especially financial one, on which to base their investment decisions, and will continue our effort to improve on the transparency in our communication with the investor community.''

Understanding some financial information about Chinese companies has always been a concern for investors, so this news come in good time. Also, now we know when XING will be releasing earnings.

Yesterday's session was good, bringing XING again over $8, after a good reaction on the ema-200. Anyhow, XING's behaviour has been kind of erratic in the past few sessions, showing some support at these levels, but a lot of intraday volatility and instability. We expect XING to HOLD this price levels, and to go up very soon.

Our Plan is the same for now:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.15

Regards,

I have previously said that it is just a matter of time before XING is going head to head with companies like Motorola, Nokia, Siemens and Samsung on the world market.

Some members might think that I am kind of over bullish on XING so before I write more I have a small request. If you have a mobile phone please put it on the table in front of you and ask the following questions:

• What is the stand by time of my battery?
• What OS system does my phone have?
• What warranty did I get on my phone?
• Which functions does my mobile phone have?

I will be back  ;D

Now be honest

Does your phone have:

• 2 months stand-by battery?
• Can it play non-stop MP3 for 20 hours?
• Does it run Linux or pockets windows
• Does it have strongest multimedia functions available in the market?
• Do you have 18 months warranty?
• Does it have QVGA TFT LCD display
• Does it have 4M resolutions CCD digital camera with video recorder/playback, flash light, auto focus and digital zoom function?

If it has please post the name of the manufacture I might buy the stock!

So if you have answered no to the questions you might consider to buy a CECT handset. After all they are a lot cheaper than Motorola and Nokia, have better warranty terms and has a lot more functions!

I know this is not a site for promoting handsets but try to have a look at a couple of CECT's handsets and your impression of XING might just change a bit:

First A1000:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21735;image)

I don't think there is a better handset available in the world. Absolutely outstanding battery. Great camera (you can find a better camera but not at this price and not with the other specs). Nice design. Have the full windows suite.

And here is P06

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21736;image)

How many handsets in the world runs Linux? Has 2M resolutions digital camera with video recorder/playback and 6X digital zoom function? And has:

Alarm clock, world clock, calendar, calculator, memo, PPT/Word/Excel/PDF viewer, Email, Chinese-English dictionary, handwriting recognition software, Email, Outlook sync, PC sync, photo album, photo editor and games?

XING is not a third world handset producer. It is among the leading handset producers in the world. I honestly believe they have better products than Nokia and even Motorola!

BTW a number of their handsets is designed by TBYH, which has been rocking lately  ;)

As said this is not a site to promote handsets! So lets have a look at CECT's financials (which is a derivative of their superior handsets!):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21739;image)

CECT (which is 72% owned by XING) had a profit of 31.7 million USD before minorities last year. (XING's market cap is 138 million USD and CECT is not the only asset they have!)

China is by fare the world largest market for mobile handsets and CECT has steadily been gaining market share:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21740;image)

They are now ahead of well-known brands as LG, Philips, Panasonic, Alcatel, Siemens etc.

Will CECT be able to beat these companies when they seriously start to enter the world market? Well I believe so. The main problem is obviously to expand the production but with the imminent IPO and the fact that they are Chinese I am sure they will handle it  ;)

Some of you might remember Japanese car manufactures 20 years ago when they started to expand internationally. Today they are ruling the market! Companies like XING is going to be a major force in the mobile industry in the years to come - and their suppliers like TBYH and CHID is going to grow with them!

I could go on all night but let me finish here with some food for thoughts. XINGs market cap is a said 133 million USD. Nokia's market cap is 89,120 million USD.

What was GM's  and Toyota's market cap 30 years ago and what are the market cap's today?

Yes XING has value today but this is only the start!

Michael, you must also not have a long weekend this weekend. There are not to many folks left around here today. Great review. Very exciting. Thanks

uc.

fyi:  ;)
XING: Short Interest DN 53.5% to 956.2K in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:22 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (NasdaqNM: XING) DECREASED 53.5% to 956,171 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.

SYMBOL             APRIL             MAY          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
XING           2,057,036         956,171      -1,100,865       -53.52%           3

Based on XING's 20-day average daily share volume of 463,185, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

&

Qiao Xing Universal Updates its Financial Disclosure Plan
Thursday , May 25, 2006 09:00 ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, May 25, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today updates its financial disclosure plan to the following:

    1.We aim to release 2005 earnings in the Form 20-F in the middle of June
       and certain key financial data for the first quarter of 2006 shortly
       afterwards.

    2.Starting from the first half of 2006, we will provide more
       comprehensive half-yearly financial reporting, which will consist of a
       consolidated balance sheet and a semi-annual consolidated income
       statement with information about earnings per share.

    3.The first and the third quarter, the Company will continue to
       release certain key financial data for the year to date as we have done
       since the first quarter of 2004.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. said, ''We appreciate the need of investors for information about the Company, especially financial one, on which to base their investment decisions, and will continue our effort to improve on the transparency in our communication with the investor community.''

About Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. is one of China's largest manufacturers and distributors of telecommunications products. The Company has grown its net sales from approximately $46.4 million in 1997 to more than $244 million in 2004. The Company's product portfolio includes telecommunications terminals and related products, including fixed wireless phones, VoIP telephones, advanced mobile phones, PDAs and consumer electronic products, including MP3 players, cash registers and set-top-box products. This includes the world's first model of dual mode and dual call waiting GSM/CDMA smartphone, the 'CECT CoolPAD 728.' The Company has established co- operative relationships with leading telecom and software companies for their China strategy, including Microsoft and Palm, aiding success for its 'High End Mobile Phone Strategy'. XING currently distributes over 260 models of corded and cordless telephones and is one of China's largest distributors of indoor phones. The Company has built a strong distribution network comprised of more than 5,000 retail stores throughout China and has established partnerships with major retailers in Europe, North America and Latin America, including Bellsouth and Wal-mart. For more details, please visit http://www.cosun- xing.com

XING: Short Interest DN 53.5% to 956.2K in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:22 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (NasdaqNM: XING) DECREASED 53.5% to 956,171 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.

SYMBOL             APRIL             MAY          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
XING           2,057,036         956,171      -1,100,865       -53.52%           3

Based on XING's 20-day average daily share volume of 463,185, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Friday was an interesting session for XING, a nice gap up, then filling the gap and closing above its ascending support. The technical outlook is bullish, with this move showing what could be a fake breakout.

Also, Michael posted some great updates about XING (and CECT) on the 3SOV board, Here's the Link (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5758.msg63690#msg63690)
(make sure you read all his 5 posts from Friday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5758.msg63690#msg63690), great update;)).

The plan will be the same for now:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.15

Best regards,

Qiao Xing's subsidiary CECT to make IPO on Nasdaq in Q4
Wednesday, May 31, 2006 05:02 ET

BEIJING, May 31, 2006 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- CECT, which has a 90 percent holding owned by Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (Nasdaq: XING), plans to make an IPO on Nasdaq in the fourth quarter of 2006 to raise 150 million US dollars, according to Beijing News.
If the listing is successful, CECT will become first homegrown mobile producer favored by Nasdaq. The chairman of CECT Wu Zhiyang have confirmed the news and said all the preparatory work has been finished. But the plan to go listing on the main board of Hong Kong has been given up.

He forecast conservatively that the IPO may raise 120 million US dollars at least.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.1d76a22d000af69947af0925d541c2a7e622f0447630b2d6874da117c064a73f

Applaud Michael for the backgrounder and Oliver for the CECT IPO news.

I am back in XING today just around $8.00. The good news is piling up here for XING, earnings will be good, CECT IPO, undervalued (very), improved SEC reporting. Chart is at decent support area with a lot of upside potential.

Welcome onboard Aussie  :)

It is as usual with mixed feelings I read the press release from XING which Oliver reported in the morning. It is on one hand good news but on the other hand it is yet another example of the horrendous way XING handles Investor Relations. You always have to read between the lines

So Wu expects to rise at a least 120 million USD from CECT's IPO. This could be good news or it could be bad news  ???

As long as he does not tell us how much of Xing he is planning to float it doesn't tell us much.. This is obviously not for 100% of the shares of CECT so let us try to interpret the news.

Lets have a look at the ownership of CECT:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21883;image)

I would expect that the pre IPO investors will make their stake in CECT available for the IPO. I would also be surprised if XING would give up control of CECT so most likely Qiao Xing Universale will sell less that 32% of their shares (probably a lot less! but we are conservative here).

If correct here are the figures:

XING will receive at least 78 million USD for their stake in cash. And they will still hold 51% of CECT, which is valued at 244 million USD so their stake is worth 124 million. So all in all XING's stake in CECT will be valued at 202 million USD.

Not bad for a company who has some other significant assets. After all XING market cap is only 135 million USD.

It would be nice to have the precise figures but on the other hand if we had the precise figures we would most likely not be able to buy XING at 8  ;)

On another note CECT has climbed yet another step up the ladder. They are now the 8th best selling handset in China  ;D

Another volatile session for XING today... but closing above $8 again.

Some interesting news out today:
(you cant find it in Yahoo yet, heres the link) http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.1d76a22d000af69947af0925d541c2a7e622f0447630b2d6874da117c064a73f

QuoteQiao Xing's subsidiary CECT to make IPO on Nasdaq in Q4
Wednesday, May 31, 2006 05:02 ET

BEIJING, May 31, 2006 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- CECT, which has a 90 percent holding owned by Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (Nasdaq: XING), plans to make an IPO on Nasdaq in the fourth quarter of 2006 to raise 150 million US dollars, according to Beijing News.
If the listing is successful, CECT will become first homegrown mobile producer favored by Nasdaq. The chairman of CECT Wu Zhiyang have confirmed the news and said all the preparatory work has been finished. But the plan to go listing on the main board of Hong Kong has been given up.

And another great update from Michael on the 3SOV portfolio:

Quote from: Michael on May 31, 2006, 06:27:24 PM
Welcome onboard Aussie  :)

It is as usual with mixed feelings I read the press release from XING which Oliver reported in the morning. It is on one hand good news but on the other hand it is yet another example of the horrendous way XING handles Investor Relations. You always have to read between the lines

So Wu expects to rise at a least 120 million USD from CECT's IPO. This could be good news or it could be bad news  ???

As long as he does not tell us how much of Xing he is planning to float it doesn't tell us much.. This is obviously not for 100% of the shares of CECT so let us try to interpret the news.

Lets have a look at the ownership of CECT:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21883;image)

I would expect that the pre IPO investors will make their stake in CECT available for the IPO. I would also be surprised if XING would give up control of CECT so most likely Qiao Xing Universale will sell less that 32% of their shares (probably a lot less! but we are conservative here).

If correct here are the figures:

XING will receive at least 78 million USD for their stake in cash. And they will still hold 51% of CECT, which is valued at 244 million USD so their stake is worth 124 million. So all in all XING's stake in CECT will be valued at 202 million USD.

Not bad for a company who has some other significant assets. After all XING market cap is only 135 million USD.

It would be nice to have the precise figures but on the other hand if we had the precise figures we would most likely not be able to buy XING at 8  ;)

On another note CECT has climbed yet another step up the ladder. They are now the 8th best selling handset in China  ;D

XING has been trading a difficult and volatile range in a zone we think it's a good support level. We expect XING to jump on the upside at any moment, although this time we bought XING on a «catch the knife» call, we didn't wait for a true buying signal like our last trade, in other words we didn't buy  «momentum» as usual, and we are still waiting for XING to build its momentum for what we think will be a great move.

The plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.15

Best regards,

FYI:
CECT presentation:
http://www.savefile.com/files2.php?fid=3680761&key=681899

also some nice comments on Yahoo!:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600481351&tid=xing&sid=1600481351&mid=103309
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600481351&tid=xing&sid=1600481351&mid=103310
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600481351&tid=xing&sid=1600481351&mid=103312

XING is having some trouble crossing the $8.30 price level, forming a short term resistance there. In the other hand, since May 22nd, XING is trading higher lows, showing some strength, even with a low volume.

It's expectable to see XING trading on the $7.90-$8.30 range for the short term, but a breakout (on close) of the $8.30 mark would be a signal of a further move to the upside (the next reaction level should be only expected near $9.00).

We are just going to update our stop level and continue to Hold XING:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.50

Best regards,

Nice press relesae on the A1000. Wonder whether this quote is 'new' to the market 'Up to date, USD 62 Million worth of orders of this model have been received from CECT's distributors'

Here's the full release.

Good Market Reception of 'A1000' - a New Model of Mobile Phone with 1000 Hours Standby Time That Is Launched by Qiao Xing Universal's Subsidiary CECT
PR Newswire - June 05, 2006 09:01

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 5, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today announced that a new model of mobile phone named ''A1000'' created and produced by its major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd (CECT) had met with enthusiastic reception in the China market. Up to date, USD 62 Million worth of orders of this model have been received from CECT's distributors.

The distinctive features of this high-end mobile phone are: 1000 hours of standby time, 4-mega-pixel auto-zoom CCD camera and MP3/MP4 media players. According to the commentators in the industry, the long standby time of this model is a Guinness World Record.

Mr. Wu Zhi Yang, Chairman of CECT and vice Chairman of Qiao Xing Universal, said, 'A1000' is drawing extensive attention from the industry commentators and the consumers upon launching. Moreover, its price is by far more competitive than similar products under foreign labels. Its good reception is within our expectation as envisaged at the design stage.

''Working closely with the market division, our R&D team has always attached great importance to consumer needs, innovation, product differentiation and optimum performance/cost ratio in researching and developing new products. In the past years, we have introduced scores of high-end mobile phones with advanced functionalities and unique value-added features at competitive prices. Most have met with varying degrees of success and helped win renown for the 'CECT' brand, which in turn helped CECT gain market share. We maintain our former estimates on an un-audited management account basis of sales revenue of US$ 250 million and net income of US$ 29 million for 2005 for CECT. It is likely, however, that the actual outcome will outperform this estimate.

''In 2006 and beyond, we will continue to focus on innovation through our efforts in R&D. We have successfully developed our own 3G mobile phone products. We expect that sales revenue will grow at a rate close to 30% from 2005 to 2006 for CECT.''

Good PR Aussie, let's hope now it will start running
More volume would surely help to get it warmer

jorgegr

Today is not time to celebrate but at least we can be pleased with the news from XING: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060605/cnm024.html?.v=2

QuoteXING today announced that a new model of mobile phone named ''A1000'' created and produced by its major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd (CECT) had met with enthusiastic reception in the China market. Up to date, USD 62 Million worth of orders of this model have been received from CECT's distributors.

A1000 is as said previously really a revolutionizing phone so I am not surprised about the market reception. What can surprise me though is that XING is still below 10.

When we bought Xing this time it was not "hot", In fact I am sure that there was a few technical oriented members that thought we had lost our mind but it is warming up and we will (hopefully) see the TA's in this thread soon. (if they don't prefer to post in the 3SOF thread  ::))

On a day like this I think it is time to introduce Marc Faber (aka Dr. Doom). I am well aware that he is very controversial. He hates Greenspan, he smokes marijuana and his macroeconomy analysis is a bit unconventional like the bar index or how to judge if a market is overvalued:

QuoteIn Thailand 4 beers for me and 8 beers for the girls cost USD 40. In Wanchai - Hong Kong's red light district - a lady's drink alone costs already USD 40. Meaning Hong Kong is just too expensive.

But Marc Faber is probably the one economist who has most precisely predicted fundamental changes in the world economy in the last three decades.

In his latest report he is very bearish on US economy and bullish on – you guessed it: Oil, gold and Asia!

Now this is not for daytraders so don't go out and sell all you US stocks tomorrow but expect to see more gold, oil and Chinese/Indian stock picks in 3SOV in the month to come.

If you would like to read more from Marc Faber you can start here: http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/index.htm Enjoy - this is macro economy with flavor  ;D

If you visit his site please remember that only a person with his track record can afford to be so controversial and still count some of the largest corporations in the worlds as his clients. He is truly one of a kind!

Back to XING. We will keep our trading plan. Earnings for 2005 and Q1 should be out within 2 weeks  ;D

Investors had a good reaction to this: ;) (Thanks Aussie)
- Good Market Reception of 'A1000' - a New Model of Mobile Phone with 1000 Hours Standby Time That Is Launched by Qiao Xing Universal's Subsidiary CECT (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060605/cnm024.html?.v=2)

And XING just moved across its $8.30 resistance level, showing a nice relative strength (against the general market) and a first volume increase... finally some action for XING ;)
The $9.00 level can create a slight resistance to this move (or maybe not), but more important is the overall technical outlook, which is now getting much better (taking in consideration that when we bought XING a few weeks ago, we were catching a falling knife), $8.30 is now a support area, the ema-50 was also crossed again, and momentum is starting to be built on the chart.

Also, take a look to Michael's last update for XING on 3SOV portfolio:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5758.msg64509#msg64509

We can now upgrade our stop level once again, so the trading plan is:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.85

Best regards,

After yesterday's breakout, today XING re-tested the $8.30 level, throwing away yesterday's gains, but not affecting the short term technical pattern yet. We expect a positive reaction tomorrow.

Trading Plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.85

Best regards,

Some results filtering through, no more details than this at the moment as far as I can see:

Qiao Xing Sees 2005 Rev For Huizhou Xing Up 42%
Qiao Xing Puts 2005 Net For Huizhou Qiao At $9M >XING

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.'s Subsidiary Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Limited Expected to Record Financial Results for 2005 Which Would be Significantly Better Than Those for 2004
Thursday June 8, 9:20 am ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 8 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ --Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today announced that its 90%-owned operating subsidiary Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. (HZQXCI), a fellow subsidiary of CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT), is expected to record financial results for 2005 which would be significantly better than those for 2004.

The Company estimates, on an un-audited management account basis, that sales revenue and net income of HZQXCI for 2005 would increase by about 42% and 386% to about USD103 million and USD 9 million respectively. Recently, the Company estimated sales revenue of USD250 million and net income of USD29 million for 2005 for CECT, another of XING's operating subsidiaries.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Director of HZQXCI and Chairman of Qiao Xing Universal, said, ''Completing its transformation from a sub-contractor of CECT to a manufacturer and distributor of the 'COSUN' brand mobile phone handsets, which it introduced in the second half of 2004, the Mobile Phone Division of HZQXCI achieved significant increase in sales in 2005 through the expansion its product lines and its distribution network. According to our estimate, HZQXCI realized about USD73 million in sales revenue and USD7 million in net income from its mobile phone business segment, representing growth rates of 44% and 619% respectively compared with 2004.

''In the indoor phone business segment in 2005, sales of value added telephone sets continued to increase. There were more big-volume sales to telecommunication operators compared with 2004. There was also increase in export sales. According to our estimate, compared with 2004, sales revenue and net income from the indoor phone business segment climbed 27% and 128% to reach about USD30 million and USD2 million respectively.

''We anticipate further rapid growth for HZQXCI's mobile phone and indoor phone business segments for 2006 and beyond.''

BUYINS.NET: ....XING Have Been Removed From Naked Short List Today
Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (NASDAQ: XING) engages in the manufacture and distribution of telecommunications products. Its product portfolio includes telecommunications terminals and related products, including fixed wireless phones and mobile phones; and consumer electronics, such as MP3 players, cash registers, and set-top-box products. The company also designs fixed line telephones and GSM mobile phones. Qiao Xing Universal distributes its products through independent regional distributors, and after-sales service centers, including wholesale agencies in China. As of December 31, 2004, the company distributed its products through 40 regional distributors to approximately 5,000 retail outlets in China. It has strategic partnership relationships with China Telecom, China Netcom, China Railcom, China Mobile, and China Unicom. The company was founded by Rui Lin Wu in 1992 and is based in Huizhou City, People's Republic of China. With 956,171 shares declared short as of May 2006, there is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of XING.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.947745e6e651d03a7f5779400db565dda099502a701349e40da73b436fc1fd50

Hmmm.... Let's try to run those numbers again. Total revenue from subsidiaries 353 millions US$ and Net profit of 38 million US$. We still don't know XING's final EPS after dilution, minorities and other subsidiaries.

The latest reported number for outstanding shares is 16.65 million. There has as expected for an extremely fast growing company as XING been some dilution but I would estimate EPS to be around 1 (EPS will most likely be higher but let's be conservative!). That gives you a PE of 8.2 for a company that is growing EPS a lot faster than my Porsche can drive on the dirt roads in Mozambique 8)

Let's just for moment forget about the IPO of CECT. A PE of 8.2 is extremely cheap for a company that is adding market share every quarter in the world largest mobile phone market in one of the fastest growing economy's in the world. Till now this market has been sufficient to support XING's growth rates but there is an even more interesting market outside China and XING certainly has the products to penetrate the world market at prices that non of the established players can compete with.

As said before XING's investor relations are horrible. This is why you can still buy the stock at this level. They have promised to improve that in the future so I believe that with the release of 2005 earnings and Q1 2006 we will never see XING in the single digits again!

PS. Porsche in Mozambique! Forget about it I am driving 4x4 and XING is growing earnings 4 times faster the top speed of my Cruiser  ;)

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 08, 2006, 09:27:30 AM
Some results filtering through, no more details than this at the moment as far as I can see:

Qiao Xing Sees 2005 Rev For Huizhou Xing Up 42%
Qiao Xing Puts 2005 Net For Huizhou Qiao At $9M >XING

Thanks Aussie ;)
Heres the links for the latest news:
• Huizhou Qiao Xing Releases Guidance (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060608/huizhou_qiao_xing_communication_industry_guidance.html?.v=1)

• Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.'s Subsidiary Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Limited Expected to Record Financial Results for 2005 Which Would be Significantly Better Than Those for 2004 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060608/cnth018.html?.v=1)

XING made a nice candle today, following the market to the upside, and having a good reaction at the support level.

Michael posted an update on the 3SOV position:

Quote from: Michael on June 08, 2006, 02:33:48 PM
Hmmm.... Let's try to run those numbers again. Total revenue from subsidiaries 353 millions US$ and Net profit of 38 million US$. We still don't know XING's final EPS after dilution, minorities and other subsidiaries.

The latest reported number for outstanding shares is 16.65 million. There has as expected for an extremely fast growing company as XING been some dilution but I would estimate EPS to be around 1 (EPS will most likely be higher but let's be conservative!). That gives you a PE of 8.2 for a company that is growing EPS a lot faster than my Porsche can drive on the dirt roads in Mozambique 8)

Let's just for moment forget about the IPO of CECT. A PE of 8.2 is extremely cheap for a company that is adding market share every quarter in the world largest mobile phone market in one of the fastest growing economy's in the world. Till now this market has been sufficient to support XING's growth rates but there is an even more interesting market outside China and XING certainly has the products to penetrate the world market at prices that non of the established players can compete with.

As said before XING's investor relations are horrible. This is why you can still buy the stock at this level. They have promised to improve that in the future so I believe that with the release of 2005 earnings and Q1 2006 we will never see XING in the single digits again!

PS. Porsche in Mozambique! Forget about it I am driving 4x4 and XING is growing earnings 4 times faster the top speed of my Cruiser  ;)

Trading Plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.85

Best regards,

 CECT to Go Public in NASDAQ Before Q4 2006
Friday , June 09, 2006 08:43 ET

BEIJING, Jun 09, 2006 (SinoCast via COMTEX) -- CEC Telecom (CECT), a mobile phone subsidiary of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc, (NASDAQ: XING), finally nailed down its schedule for overseas stock listing. The company is set to go public in NASDAQ before the fourth quarter of 2006 to raise USD 150 million.

CECT will likely to be the first China-grown mobile phone manufacturer whose stock is listed on NASDAQ. At present, most Chinese homegrown cellphone makers choose to go publich in China mainland or Hong Kong.

Insiders at CECT disclose that the company has planned the overseas stock offering as early as from two years ago and now formally kicks off the preparation. At first, the company will select the lead underwriters for this stock offering, and it will contact with a number of US-based investment banks.

According to its plan, CECT will inject most of the capital raised from stock listing into 3G mobile phone development and manufacturing. The company has obtained USD 60 million via previous private offerings.

XING managed to stay up last Friday, even selling considerably from the session highs...
The range $8.90/$9.20 can be considered as a short term resistance level, it was already a reaction zone during March/April, and it was the only level of reaction during the last big sell off, and that's why XING is having some trouble to break that level (and because of the market conditions as well). I believe XING is ready to trade its way up above $9.00 very soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold XING with a stop @ $7.85

Best regards,

Sometimes Mr Market cares not if you are undervalued or overvalued. XING got hammered today and broke the 200MA closing below in fact. I stopped out of my position just below $8.
XING long term is still one I want to own, but not right now.

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 14, 2006, 01:56:46 AM
Sometimes Mr Market cares not if you are undervalued or overvalued. XING got hammered today and broke the 200MA closing below in fact. I stopped out of my position just below $8.
XING long term is still one I want to own, but not right now.

Different investors - different trading strategies  :) You certainly made a smart move selling at 8 - Congrats. I wouldn't stay out too long though if you like the fundamentals.

Todays sell off was a result of a general trend of rotating money out of riskier assets into cash and Bonds. I don't see any fundamental reasons for the sell off. On the contrary for everyday that pass we are closer to earnings.

The reallocation of funds hurt a lot of fundamentally very good stocks today and I am starting to pick up value stocks here. Some weeks ago I recommended to use any bounce in the market to reduce your exposure if you were overexposed in the market. Today I would recommend that you use any sell off in the market to add stocks you feel comfortable holding over the long run.

That XING is fundamentally attractive got yet another confirmation today. Valuengine upgraded the stock to its highest rating:

QuoteJun 14, 2006 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- June 14, 2006 (FinancialWire) (Investrend Research Syndicate) ValuEngine, Inc. (http://www.valuengine.com) upgraded five companies, including Holly Corporation (NYSE: HOC), Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC), Bancolombia S A (NYSE: CIB), and Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc (NASDAQ: XING), to a "5" rating, the service's highest.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.5f1d41850771d8129de9f8031e62bdb7a251c08b2795e76706e2a98b4b3330b2

From a fundamental point of view XING is a great stock. This will be reflected in the share price sooner or later so the short term trading strategy is based on your time horizon for your investment.

Looks like the floodgates have been opened... maybe this push will get past the $8.90 resistance.

XING: Shares Spiking on EPS Guidance
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 10:51 ET

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc (XING) shares, up 15%, are spiking on news that the company expects to report basic earnings per share before gains of more than $1 for 2005, up sharply from 17 cents in the year-ago period. With a $1 in EPS the shares would only be trading at a P/E of 8.4.

XING: Closes $40M PIPE: Convertible Debentures
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 11:17 ET

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (nasdaqnm:XING) announced that it has closed the highly anticipated USD 40 Million Convertible Bond transaction with two strategic investors on June 13. Proceeds are to be used for the company's 3G expansion and to fuel the rapid growth extending from 2005.The unique debenture is convertible into common stock of either Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. or their 80% owned subsidiary Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co. Ltd. QXMC, a BVI company, in turn owns 90% of the Sino-Foreign JV CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT), which has been Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.'s key earnings driver. CECT's market share has become the fastest growing among domestic brands, rising to seventh place overall. The funds will be used to continue the innovation that has led to such market share gains.

"Finally XING" ... what's a joke: yesterday I was stopped and today we've got a news and very nice run:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060614/qiao_xing_results.html?.v=1

Is it wise to re-enter now?

stopped out yesterday, back today  :P

1)
XING: Closes $40M PIPE: Convertible Debentures
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 11:17 ET

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (nasdaqnm:XING) announced that it has closed the highly anticipated USD 40 Million Convertible Bond transaction with two strategic investors on June 13. Proceeds are to be used for the company's 3G expansion and to fuel the rapid growth extending from 2005.The unique debenture is convertible into common stock of either Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. or their 80% owned subsidiary Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co. Ltd. QXMC, a BVI company, in turn owns 90% of the Sino-Foreign JV CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT), which has been Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.'s key earnings driver. CECT's market share has become the fastest growing among domestic brands, rising to seventh place overall. The funds will be used to continue the innovation that has led to such market share gains.

2)

XING: Shares Spiking on EPS Guidance
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 10:51 ET

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc (XING) shares, up 15%, are spiking on news that the company expects to report basic earnings per share before gains of more than $1 for 2005, up sharply from 17 cents in the year-ago period. With a $1 in EPS the shares would only be trading at a P/E of 8.4.

So what is the value of XING based on current information?

Looking at XING's history, its PE ratio has been over 50 (currently at 45) -- I am sure that much of that is priced into XING based on the anticipation of some of the things that are now occurring.  However, I would say a reasonable PE going forward would be at least 25.

That puts the stocks fair price around $25-30 per share based on their next earnings release.

I can't find any reason why XING should not reach $20 per share.

Can anyone else see any reason why XING would not support a P/E ratio of at least 20?

Quote from: Loffigus on June 14, 2006, 02:04:53 PM
So what is the value of XING based on current information?

Looking at XING's history, its PE ratio has been over 50 (currently at 45) -- I am sure that much of that is priced into XING based on the anticipation of some of the things that are now occurring.  However, I would say a reasonable PE going forward would be at least 25.

That puts the stocks fair price around $25-30 per share based on their next earnings release.

I can't find any reason why XING should not reach $20 per share.

Can anyone else see any reason why XING would not support a P/E ratio of at least 20?

Hi Loffy,

I don't know if the PE should be 15, 25 or 35. What I do know is that the company grew earnings in 2005 with at least 600% and expects to grow earnings with 35% in average for the next 5 years.

I also have to admit that I don't know if they will be able to grow earnings with 35% for the next 5 year but based on the sales figures and Market shares for 2006 it certainly seems like earnings this year will grow with significantly more that 35%.

What I do know is that this stock is one of the most undervalued stocks that I have stumbled over for a very long time and that is good enough for me (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3073)

Let's be very conservative here and assume that XING will report 1.1 USD earnings this year and grow earnings with 35% over the next 5 years. A little magic with excel tells me that earnings 5 years from now will be 4.93. Let's also say that the PE 5 years from now will only be 15 and you have a share price of 74 USD. That is good enough for me (wouldn't complain if the PE would be 25 though  ;))

Quote from: Michael on June 14, 2006, 04:02:02 AM

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 14, 2006, 01:56:46 AM
Sometimes Mr Market cares not if you are undervalued or overvalued. XING got hammered today and broke the 200MA closing below in fact. I stopped out of my position just below $8.
XING long term is still one I want to own, but not right now.

Different investors - different trading strategies  :) You certainly made a smart move selling at 8 - Congrats. I wouldn't stay out too long though if you like the fundamentals.

Tuesday my stop on XING looked OK and protected my capital in a shaky market, today though that STOP took me out the wrong time ;) But I worry not I trade with STOPS all the time to protect my long term survival in the market. Anyways I Stopped back in XING today a little higher than I got out, I am OK with that, but I take on board what happened, normally my trade rules mean I am a buyer of stocks I want at the 200MA, on XING the selling market made me overide that rule. That's what happens though.

Good Trading

Talk about a bad time to get stopped out.  You could not have asked for a worse scenario for a stop to get triggered.  Anyone buy back in?

hi,
it is sitting right on the ema 50 at 887, good place to get in?
the ma50 is 850which it bounced off this morning.
maxi

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 14, 2006, 08:59:38 PM

Quote from: Michael on June 14, 2006, 04:02:02 AM

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 14, 2006, 01:56:46 AM
Sometimes Mr Market cares not if you are undervalued or overvalued. XING got hammered today and broke the 200MA closing below in fact. I stopped out of my position just below $8.
XING long term is still one I want to own, but not right now.

Different investors - different trading strategies  :) You certainly made a smart move selling at 8 - Congrats. I wouldn't stay out too long though if you like the fundamentals.

Tuesday my stop on XING looked OK and protected my capital in a shaky market, today though that STOP took me out the wrong time ;) But I worry not I trade with STOPS all the time to protect my long term survival in the market. Anyways I Stopped back in XING today a little higher than I got out, I am OK with that, but I take on board what happened, normally my trade rules mean I am a buyer of stocks I want at the 200MA, on XING the selling market made me overide that rule. That's what happens though.

Good Trading

My only concern is that usually when a stock with this much value is staying depressed, it is because some dilution is on the horizon...  Just like what happened to NVAX - it's run got killed when they decided to announce an additional 100,000,000 shares being issued.
Stuff like that is always what happens to these stocks with great stories.  Not trying to be negative, just cautious.

TA very positive IMO   >:D

Quote from: la-onda on June 15, 2006, 02:46:00 PM
TA very positive IMO >:D

So much so that this pattern has its own name: "The Hound of The Baskervilles"  ;D

We have a very clear positive divergence with MACD (where is Terliso!!!). This pattern was identified and named by Dr. Alexander Elder as one of the strongest reversal signals in his book: Come in to my Trading Room.

The theory is that everybody is taken by surprise by the sudden change in direction (nobody heard the dog barking) so all the people who believed in the stock but sold during the downtrend will rally to buy the stock back in competition with new buyers. The pattern is confirmed when the MACD turns positive which happened yesterday.

We also had another confirmation, which is the increased volume on the second day of the reversal. It seems like this break out has a lot of fuel to catapult it higher.

haha Mike, funny to hear the Hound dog mentioned again by someone, ive never heard it mentioned here before. I posted an analysis of the $COMPX earliar this morning with a potential hound creeping upon us :) So if  anyone is confused what "The hound of Baskervilles" is, I explained it here. here (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5772.msg65407#msg65407)

Will be interesting to see how this pattern plays out for both XING  and the NAsD.

:)

-fous

up 20%!! pre market


Qiao Xing Universal Reports 2005 Financial Results
Tuesday June 20, 9:05 am ET 
--Company's Revenue Rise 42.4% and Net Income Increase by over 900%


HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 20 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) announced that today it files its 2005 annual report on Form 20-F with SEC. For the fiscal year 2005, the Company recorded:

    -- Net sales of US$ 356 million, increasing by 42.4% over that for 2004,
    -- Gross margin ratio of 17.0% versus 11.1% for 2004
    -- Income from operations increased by around 400% to US$ 45 million,
       compared with US$ 8 million for 2004
    -- Net income of US$ 31 million, compared with US$ 3 million for 2004, an
       increase of 987%.

The Company achieved a positive operating cash flows and that the Basic and Diluted EPS before extraordinary gain should increase in excess of 700% to US$1.44 on stellar performance from subsidiary CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. Basic earnings per share, as well as diluted earnings per share, after extraordinary gain for 2005 for the Company was US$ 1.68 compared with US$ 0.17 for 2004.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''We are pleased that the Company's financial results have improved significantly over past years, indication that we have found our place in this fiercely competitive business sector in which we operate. Among our many competitive advantages, one is our devoted emphasis on research and development, with our strong team who are capable of continuously coming up with innovative ideas and turning them into products. Being a local player with an extensive sales network has allowed us to develop a deep understanding of consumer needs and tastes. This knowledge, updated constantly and shared freely among those involved, is put to use without delay especially by our product development people. This explains why our new products follow closely the latest trends and are invariably met with warm reception in the market.''

Mr. Wu Zhi Yang, Chairman of CECT and Vice-chairman of XING, said, "Only a few years after it became a member of XING, CECT's sales revenue has grown sevenfold to become one of the major local players in China's mobile handset market. Not only is it fast growing, it has outstanding profit numbers as compared with its local rivals. Its winning business model, consisting of high-end product strategy, product differentiation, continuous business process improvement and vigorous cost control, is at the heart of this stellar performance.''


    2005 income statement follows:


                               Income Statement

             QIAO XING UNIVERSAL TELEPHONE, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONSAND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)FOR THE

                 YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2003, 2004 AND 2005



                        Note    2 0 0 3    2 0 0 4            2 0 0 5
                                Rmb'000    Rmb'000     Rmb'000      US$'000
                               (Restated) (Restated)               (Note 3)

    Net sales                1,843,282  2,019,081   2,874,336      356,166
    Cost of goods sold      (1,598,615) (1,795,482)  (2,385,287)  (295,567)

    Gross profit                 244,667    223,599     489,049       60,599

    Operating expenses:
    Selling expenses             (74,885)   (27,873)    (29,227)      (3,622)
    General and
    administrative
     expenses                    (78,814)  (100,062)    (61,503)      (7,621)
    Research and
     development                  (6,649)   (10,449)    (20,694)      (2,564)
    In process research
     and development             (21,826)        --          --           --
    Amortization of
    acquired intangible
     assets                      (27,425)   (11,044)    (10,159)      (1,259)
    Impairment of
    acquired intangible
     assets                           --         --      (3,852)        (477)

    Income from
     operations                   35,068     74,171     363,614       45,056

    Interest income                3,045        492       7,130          883
    Exchange loss, net                --         --      (2,659)        (329)
    Interest expense      32     (18,985)   (27,060)    (41,752)      (5,174)
    Gain on disposal of
     subsidiary           29.f        --         --      10,307        1,277
    Gain on disposal of
     equity investee      12          --     41,465       1,579          196
    Gain on disposal of
     other equity
    investments                       --         --       5,035          624
    Other income, net              2,088      1,597         640           79

    Income before income
     tax                          21,216     90,665     343,894       42,612

    Provision for income
     tax                  23          --    (10,404)    (27,813)      (3,446)

    Income before
     minority interests           21,216     80,261     316,081       39,166

    Minority interests           (35,748)   (56,763)   (102,870)     (12,747)
    Equity in earnings
     of equity investees  12       6,802       (624)         --           --

    Net (loss) income
     before
    extraordinary gain            (7,730)    22,874     213,211       26,419

    Extraordinary gain
     on acquisition of
    minority interests  29.f          --         --      35,486        4,397

    Net (loss) income             (7,730)    22,874     248,697       30,816

    Other comprehensive
     (loss) income
    Translation
     adjustments                    (746)        70       1,821          226

    Comprehensive (loss)
     income                       (8,476)    22,944     250,518       31,042

    Basic (loss)
    earnings per common
     share
    Before extraordinary       Rmb        Rmb         Rmb         US$
     gain                 25   (0.50)     1.39        11.64       1.44
    Extraordinary gain                                Rmb         US$
                          25      --        --        1.94        0.24

    After extraordinary        Rmb        Rmb         Rmb         US$
     gain                 25   (0.50)     1.39        13.58       1.68

    Diluted (loss)
    earnings per common
     share
    Before extraordinary       Rmb        Rmb         Rmb         US$
     gain                 25   (0.50)     1.38        11.64       1.44
    Extraordinary gain                                Rmb         US$
                          25      --        --         1.94       0.24

    After extraordinary        Rmb        Rmb         Rmb         US$
     gain                 25   (0.50)     1.38        13.58       1.68

    Weighted average
     number of shares
    outstanding
    - Basic               15,420,000  16,443,000   18,319,000  18,319,000
    - Diluted             15,420,000  16,559,527   18,320,000  18,320,000

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

much better as expected:
The Company achieved a positive operating cash flows and that the Basic and Diluted EPS before extraordinary gain should increase in excess of 700% to US$1.44 on stellar performance from subsidiary CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. Basic earnings per share, as well as diluted earnings per share, after extraordinary gain for 2005 for the Company was US$ 1.68 compared with US$ 0.17 for 2004.

>:D >:D >:D >:D

awesome !
Oliver

Good God - even at a P/E of just 10, this should trade at $14-17
I guess you were right Michael -- this shouldnt see single digits again.

This will be a very interesting day, the results are extreme >:D

In an earlier post I said I got stopped out a few days back, but stopped myself back in prior to earnings. I also at that time took a position in some Sept $12.50 calls for XING.
My expectation is that this will not be a 1 day rocket that returns to the launch pad, the results and guidance  and news (CECT IPO etc) is just too strong.

Good luck all

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 20, 2006, 09:49:31 AM

My expectation is that this will not be a 1 day rocket that returns to the launch pad, the results and guidance  and news (CECT IPO etc) is just too strong.
Good luck all

looks like it wants to a least fill the gap. dropping like a rock!

I am actually very surprised that sellers are in control, I would have thought that the buying pressure would have made the stock do this but in the opposite direction.   >:(

Today's action was almost unbelievable....what the heck is going on?

???

Quote from: ygtrdr on June 20, 2006, 04:12:31 PM
Today's action was almost unbelievable....what the heck is going on?

???

Unbelievable is a very well chosen word. This is all about credibility most of the buyers in the morning saw a stock with 900% increase in earnings most sellers in the afternoon saw a stock that was a total scam.

So what is it?

Well I believe you are looking at a stock that grew earnings with 900% in 2005 and is going to continue growing earnings with at least 35% as they recently guided.

I have been holding XING for a long time and I remember when I first recommended the stock on 3SOF I had to do a lot of searches just to find a description of one of their handsets. Try to do a very simple search on Google for CECT A1000, which is their newest handset, and you will get 263.000 hits; most of them are in Chinese.

XING's products are a huge success in China. The company has basically within very short time gone from being a marginal player in the world largest and fastest growing mobile phone market to being one of the most popular and desired handset brands.

When I first wrote about XING I quoted the CEO:

Quote from: Michael on August 07, 2005, 10:13:17 AM
CECT is among the top 3 local brands in China and is gaining market share inside and outside China

The Chairman and CEO has recently said that:

QuoteAll in all, we expect sales revenue to increase 20% from US$244.0 million for 2004 to about US$280-300 million for 2005 and gross profit to increase by 40.0% from US$27.0 million for 2004 to US$36-38 million for 2005. Our target gross profit margin for the year 2005 is around 14% versus 11.1% for the year 2004

This was in August last year and their gross profit didn't come in at US$ 36-38 million in 2005 but US$ 60.6 million. This is unbelievable and that was exactly why you saw the reaction on the earning release today.

Most buyers in the morning had never heard about the stock 15 minutes before they bought it. When they tried to do some basic research they were met with a lot of Chinese websites and people who were shouting that XING is a scam.

Those of us who have followed every new order and every step up the market share ladder knows better!

Today was a great day for long-term investors on XING. The stock has gained more than 30% since we picked it for 3SOV less than one month ago. I believe that this is just the start. As Aussie said the results and guidance  and news (CECT IPO etc) is just too strong.


The next major news will be Q1 earnings, which should be as good if not better than 2005 earnings ;)

In addition to earning a lot of money, XING also needs to earn the confidence of the investment community. But since I started to follow the stock they have reported better results than they have guided and that is a very good start!

Very volatile day for sure, but not out of character for XING if you look at some longer term history on its share price.
I agree with Michael's analysis on how traders / investors are looking at XING. If XING were an US company then with these type of results it would be trading somewhere crazy like $50, but the flip side to that is, hey we wouldn't be able to purchase shares at $10 or so (which if you were to fast forward 1 year will look like a steal).
I am coming to the conclusion that over the coming weeks / months XING will 'earn the confidence of the investment community' they have too much good news in the pipe. In the meantime though I think a bg short position is going to be built up again (by those who perhaps miistrust XING and see it as a scam of some sort - CHINA SCAM, CHINA ACCOUNTING DODGY etc) which will create a nice short squeeze trigger. I don't have the facts to back that up it is just my opinion, short position in May was 956K,June numbers when out will show this I guess.
Technically in the short term the chart got a bit ugly with the black candle and gap (daily chart) and it may try to fill that gap, I don't know, I would hope perhaps we get another 'hound of the baskervilles' and the gap becomes a runaway one. Weekly chart looks nice, MACD Histo only after today has crossed the zero line, RSI below 70. Thats a buy in my book.
I didn't sell any of my positions in XING (as I want to try and get the longer run)
My final conclusion is that I don't have enough XING in my port (be it stock or options / leaps). I will be looking to add to my position over the coming days (if I like the entry points). That will make me very overweight in XING ( I don't follow the 6.66% model port) I tend to use % of port at risk relative to stops and set my risk levels that way. I see less risk and much greater long term upside in holding a lot of XING, than holding a pot of stocks (especially in the current climate). I am not urging anyone to copy my approach here, these are jsut my thoughts and sharing my risk approach.

Good Trading

XING is looking good right now ;)

I'm just wondering why 3SOF did not take back their position ....3SOF got stopped out but you can always get back & buy back the shares.. there is nothing wrong with that, right?

That's a nice set up going on with XING... creating a rounding bottom on the long-term chart.

Short-term chart is even more attractive (HEAVY VOLUME baby) ;) :D

I too stopped out on this that meant I sold despite liking. In the current market I've been very reluctant to reinvest. I will see how this trades today and buy again on a pull backt to 9.5

This news release hasn't made it to English and I am not sure of how important it is to XING growth in China. It's taken from the National Development and Reform Commission website (Chinese). It seems HuiZhou Qiao Xing Telecom was awarded a cell phone manufacturing license by China central government. The details are limited so I can't see if this relates to 2G or 3G however to be awarded a licence by the government you have to have 1) The technology and processes in place (well we know they do) and 2) I guess good relationships with government departments (seems they do here also). This is not CECT it is HQZT.
Anyways I am no expert on those type of things, comments welcomed.

Here is Chinese link:
http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/gjscy/xxcy2/t20060616_73097.htm

Here is Translation:
National Development and Reform Commission approved Huizhou Qiaoxing Telecommunication Industrial Limited mobile communications terminals production projects
2006/06/16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Recently, the State Development and Reform Commission approved investment projects on the basis of enterprises and the relevant provisions of the "mobile communications systems and terminals investment projects approved by a number of provisions," according to transparent, scientific decision-making, management by seeking the views of industry and professional bodies to assess feasibility, Huizhou Qiaoxing Telecommunication Industrial Co. Ltd. approved consent mobile communications terminals for production projects.

Another days trading and we are almost back to the point where we started before the release of the outstanding figures for 2005. It is clear that the investors do not have much confidence in the reports and guidance from the company. As said repeatedly the company's reporting is horrendous for a business of this size. It seems management have realized this and will start semi annual reporting and quarterly release of key figures. This is a step in the right direction but still not good enough.

That is why it is so important to follow the other news sources that are out there like independent reports of CECT's market share, the products themselves, agreements with PALM and Microsoft, new licenses etc.. This information all point in one direction and that is that XING is a stellar business with very healthy growth.

But credibility is something you earn over time and XING still have a long way to go and in the meantime we will se these huge swings.

We almost closed the gap yesterday and I could easily see the gap closed today unless XING release Q1 figures. This might be an excellent entry point for the next leg up both for them who would like to hold XING long term and for those who are in to a quick swing trade  >:D

3SOV is in for the long term so we will keep our trading plan, which has served us well until now.

hi,
here is some good news on xing
maxi

9:51AM Qiao Xing to release certain key financial data for 2006 Q1 next week and to provide more comprehensive quarterly financial reporting starting 2006 Q3 (XING) 10.43 +0.74 : Co announces it would release certain key financial data for the first quarter of 2006 next week and that starting from the third quarter of 2006 it would provide more comprehensive quarterly financial reporting. Quarterly reporting starting from 2006 Q3, like half- yearly reporting starting from 2006 H1, will consist of a consolidated balance sheet and a consolidated income statement with information about earnings per share. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''We constantly seek ways to improve on our communication with the investor community, for which 'transparency' is our watchword.''

XING are looking to win that investor confidence for sure ;)

XING releases that licence news in English and gives good details on its $ impact

-- XING expects a 35% increase in sales revenue for the Group's mobile phone
business segment for 2006 compared with 2005 --


HUIZHOU, Guandong, China, June 22 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal
Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today announced that its subsidiary, Huizhou Qiao
Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. (HZQXCI), had recently received from the
National Development and Reform Commission of China a manufacturing license for
mobile communication terminal products.  The last impediment to XING's dual
brand mobile phone strategy is now cleared.

Mr. Wu Zhi Zhong, CEO of HZQXCI, said, ''With this license, unrelated to that
held by CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT), another of XING's subsidiaries, comes
freedom of action in the development of HZQXCI's mobile phone business. We plan
to announce in the upcoming press conference in China the launch of 20 new
models of 'COSUN'-brand mobile phone handsets through our
well-established distribution network in the China market.  We expect revenue
from the sale of 'COSUN'-brand handsets for 2006 to double that for 2005.''

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''The overall arrangement for
our Group's mobile phone handset business is this: CECT focuses on R&D,
production and sales of higher-end products, while HZQXCI develops and sells
lower-end and middle-end products.  HZQXCI also exports through
overseas telecommunication operators and telecommunication terminal retailers
such as Wal-Mart.  We are currently shipping the USD35 million's worth of orders
that we received some time ago from overseas mobile phone operators.  The
Group's production of mobile phone handsets is located at Huizhou in the
Province of Guangdong.  Huizhou is one of the most important sites in China for
the manufacturing of consumer electronics products.  It benefits from the
presence of a large number of suppliers, a large pool of skilled and
productive workforce, and a regulatory environment favourable to business that
the local government provides.

''Both CECT and HZQXCI will continue to emphasize on R&D, from which marketable
product innovations flow.  CECT has already developed its own 3G mobile phone
products and HZQXCI is now cooperating with a major player in the field to
develop chips for its 3G mobile phone products.

''XING has been making steady progress towards our medium-term goal of becoming
one of the leading local players in the mobile phone handset market in China. We
anticipate significant growth in sales revenue of above 35% for the mobile phone
handset business in our Group for 2006 compared with 2005.''

The last couple of weeks have been a great study of investor psychology. People have gone from euphoria to despair within hours. I am sure that a lot of investors have bought expensive and sold cheap during the big swings. I found this one on investor psychology:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=22682;image)

We are now entering into the chasing phase where the investors who know the value of XING but were stopped out or were scared into selling their shares during the large drops will have to chase the stock higher.

XING's fundamental value has always been there for everybody to see but Friday we got some more confirmation (sorry for the translation!!!):

Quote
TCL Desai opening Qiaoxing crowned as "the most valued brands in China 500" alternate   

Published Time : 2006-06-23 10:35:50 Source :   
 
The (reporter Fuhaiyan Correspondents Ho) 2006, "China's most valued brands 500" list recently published, our TCL, Qiaoxing, primitive, Desai respectively to 31.76 billion yuan, 3.145 billion yuan, 2.536 billion yuan and 2.395 billion yuan reelected China 500 most value brands, which included ranked No. 18. Haier continue to 63.989 billion yuan rates top.

As a key support of our large enterprise, TCL, Desai, opening, Qiaoxing four major groups in recent years actively implement the municipal party committee and government of the "brand-name strategy" deployment, formulated in line with enterprise development brand management strategy, in the brand-building results. It is understood that the "500 most Chinese brand value" by the world's top brand research institutions -- the World brand laboratory to conduct a comprehensive scientific assessment of China's brand marks. The total electrical household appliances, food beverages, textiles and clothing, 52 media industry language, which for the most successful brands of food beverage industries, a total of 61 brands selected, accounting for 12.2%. Geographical distribution, Beijing (16.8%), Canton (16.6%), Shanghai (10.0%) continued to rank in top. 

The Chinese Yuan is 0.125 to the dollar. So the value of CECT's brand is 393 million USD. XING's market cap is 185 million USD.

We still think XING has a long way to go. They earned 1.44USD in 2005 and have promised 35% earning growth the next 5 years. Using these figures to calculate EPS in 2010 we get 6.45(ignoring dilution!). The theory says that a stock is trading at fair value when the PEG is 1, which in this case means that the PE should be 35. Fair value in 2010 is therefore 226 USD per share. Mind bubbling figure  ::)

We are planning to hold for the long run safe of any fundamental changes. We might however sell a few shares when we cross 70  ;)

Lets finished with a long term chart of XING. this strip out a lot of the noise that they big swings is causing! Last time we had this kind of volume the stock ran from around 11 to around 70. That was during the IT buble in 2000 so there probably was not much fundamental back up. We are not saying this will happen again within the next weeks but I do truly believe the stock has the fundamentals to trade at 70 in the coming years.

additional info:

XING on naked short list:
Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (NASDAQ: XING) engages in the manufacture and distribution of telecommunications products. Its product portfolio includes telecommunications terminals and related products, including fixed wireless phones and mobile phones; and consumer electronics, such as MP3 players, cash registers, and set-top-box products. The company also designs fixed line telephones and GSM mobile phones. Qiao Xing Universal distributes its products through independent regional distributors, and after-sales service centers, including wholesale agencies in China. As of December 31, 2004, the company distributed its products through 40 regional distributors to approximately 5,000 retail outlets in China. It has strategic partnership relationships with China Telecom, China Netcom, China Railcom, China Mobile, and China Unicom. The company was founded by Rui Lin Wu in 1992 and is based in Huizhou City, People's Republic of China. With 16.65 million shares outstanding and 956,171 shares declared short as of May 2006, there is a failure to deliver in shares of XING

Quote from: la-onda on June 25, 2006, 11:03:01 AM
additional info:

XING on naked short list:, there is a failure to deliver in shares of XING

hi,
what does this mean? anyone?
max

Hi Rick,

When you sell shares short you have to borrow them from somebody (as you don't own the share). In some cases the market makers accept to sell shares short without having shares to borrow. They should in priciple settle those trades within 3 tradings day. If they are not able to do that they are violating the SEC rules.

In other words the failure to deliver occured on June 19. Have a look at what happend on June 20  :D

The stock can be on the naked short list for months  ??? but it is in general considered to be bullish as it makes the stock difficult to short and those who are short will have to buy the stock back to cover.

Here are two good sites to learn about naked shorts:

http://www.buyins.net/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=xing
http://www.ncans.net/

thanks michael,
appreciated
(full disclosure, i bought at 1129 the day it retraced from 12, only to watch collapse in a twitching heap on the floor ,lol. i was supposed to get in at 880 when i saw it bounce from the 50ma a few days back . holding long.)
max

Michael, thank you for this very interesting pick and for your post about "investor psychology". I'll print this graph and I'll place it on my desktop  ;D
Your graph explains my real story:  :D

I like XING fundamentals and so I traded XING 3 times:
13.06 I was stopped @7.33 (loss -8%)  :'( ;
20.06 I sell @11.39 (profit +24.75%)  ;D

22.06 my order @9.65 wasn't filled and I missed 2 excellent days  :(
I hate to chase a stocks, but because of the XING fundamentals (and my uncontrolled emotions) I bought XING once more 23.06 @11.1
Very bad timing IMHO, but I got my next psychologic lesson.  :-[

In any case, I still like XING story and I'd like to increase my position in the nearest consolidation. The question is "is it wise to wait for consolidation"?
I'm not an expert in TA - I see MACD, MFI in overbought zone, but XING is in parabolic rally and so I can't believe to indicators  ??? What

Once more, thank you Michael and applaud.
Gregory

Currently I only have 2 stocks I am interested in trading / holding, XING and GIGM. In fact, I am in contrarian mode to the market right now in that I am all long. Why? XING technical and fundamental signals are shouting buy, which in the balance of probability I expect will produce an exceptional gain over the coming weeks / months. This combination of signals (for me) do not coincide very often, when they do I have to position my portfolio to take best advantage of what could be in the making (This is not a blind buy XING at any price and close the eyes, I have taken multiple entries when I saw opportunity, combined with call options for longer term leverage. It doesn't mean I won't sell into strength if I see the opportunity, for sure I will trade around my core holding as well).
My Weekly and Daily Charts:

Machine translated articles, therefore a bit confused, but interestingly confirmation of CECT to IPO either Nasdaq or NYSE, also reference to another XING owned R&D company to IPO by year end?

Http://www.sina.com.cn June 26, 2006 00:35 First Financial Daily

Qiaoxing Group chairman Wu Ruilin build gradually surface of the mobile phone.

Yesterday, just returned from the State Policy of Qiaoxing Group was "Qiao Xing" signs mobile phone "Zhunshengzheng" occasion in Huizhou issued new "Qiaoxing 06" strategy, one introduced 25 new mobile phones, and that "Qiao Xing is" communication industries carrier rode off
Qiaoxing Group Executive Director and Head of Wuzhizhong Qiaoxing Telecommunication to the "one Financial Daily," revealed that Qiaoxing 2006 main components of the strategy are : capital landing system three companies overseas capital markets, the two major mobile phone systems market brands hours attack, one of Kau Yi telephone field drive.
"Qiaoxing more familiar with some American investors, such as oasis Fund. "Wu Ruilin revealed that Zhongdiantongxin Corporation (CECT) has basically completed preparations for the overseas listing is the U.S. Nasdaq Securities Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange, both options currently appears in the possibility of greater New York Stock Exchange listing. In addition, there is a mobile phone under development Qiaoxing Group companies by the end of this year will also be listed in the American Stock Exchange.

But Wu Ruilin which did not disclose the specific design of a mobile phone company landing that city. He pointed out that the current American investors are very optimistic about the Qiao Xing Group, June 14, listed in the Nasdaq Qiao Xing Universal, by the U.S. media as Wall Street "is the largest city Wednesday winners," and for five days gone against the tide rises, the increase in China-related stocks ranked societies, the highest increase of 16.64%.
Huizhou Qiaoxing Group as a whole has a current, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen to six mobile phone design company 4. In the industry, to be submitted to the landing of the U.S. mobile phone design company should be Qiaoxing Shanghai research and development companies because the company is the first national research and development in mobile phone design companies, a few of the domestic mobile phone chips-class development capabilities in the design company, and to offer our customers from the industrial design, institutions design, hardware development, software MMI, and the production and testing of the integrity of the related after-sale services. Currently, Shanghai is not only engaged in research and development company GSM/GPRS mobile phone development, production and marketing of mobile phones also can provide. In March last year, and Wu Ruilin also disclosed that the Shanghai R & D companies to be listed in the United States.

On this point, Wu Ruilin noncommittal, only that the Shanghai R & D companies have independent legal personality, and Qiao Xing only investor owned 75% of the shares of its capital management operation will be the company to operate. According to reports, similar companies in the possession of independent legal Qiaoxing Group of 22.

Although Wu Ruilin did not disclose further details, but Qiao Xing in the mobile phone industry has quietly improved layout.

Wuzhizhong that CECT mobile phones, high-end attack, Qiao Xing (Cosun), low end mobile phone attack, which Qiaoxing future positioning domestic mobile phone market, overseas markets, operators of market-world. Early this year, Qiaoxing Telecommunication with foreign telecommunication operators signed a value of more than 35 million U.S. dollars of Qiaoxing mobile phone sales orders in India, Europe, South America and other places to establish branches in more than 40 countries registered "Cosun" Trademark .

According to reports, Qiaoxing Group except in 2G mobile phone market distribution, will also aim to target the vast 3G future. Group recently with a heavyweight 3G chip industry research company cooperation has entered a substantive stage, Qiaoxing input billion investment is expected to launch video series decryption core chip development, the flow of 3G mobile handsets whole sets of programme design, media research, and took away the competition in the field of 3G initiative.


http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2006-06-26/00351006866.shtml

gri: I think you did well you bought. XING will report its Q1 resutls today after marker close and we should not be dissapointed. I will be adding some more today!

Quote

So much so that this pattern has its own name: "The Hound of The Baskervilles"  ;D

We have a very clear positive divergence with MACD (where is Terliso!!!). This pattern was identified and named by Dr. Alexander Elder as one of the strongest reversal signals in his book: Come in to my Trading Room.

The theory is that everybody is taken by surprise by the sudden change in direction (nobody heard the dog barking) so all the people who believed in the stock but sold during the downtrend will rally to buy the stock back in competition with new buyers. The pattern is confirmed when the MACD turns positive which happened yesterday.

Quote

hi,
it is one of the strongest signals but it is not called "hound of the baskervilles."
the hound has the opposite effect.
from "come into my trading room"
" when a super strong signal doesn't pan out it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market.................................but the failure of a divergance of macd hist. is an exception."
" i call this the hound of the baskervilles signal, after a story by sir arthur conan doyle. sherlock holmes was called to investigate a murder on a country estate. his clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being commited. that indicated the dog knew the criminal, and the murder was an inside job. sherlock holmes recieved his signal not from the action but from the lack of expected action. when a divergance of macd hist. fails to produce a reversal, it gives a hound of the baskervilles signal."
this is not the case with xing :D
maxi

Thought I was late getting back into the party at 11.56, but today looks like it could be a breakaway gap... anyone else think so?

Quote from: Terliso on June 21, 2006, 03:08:07 AM
That's a nice set up going on with XING... creating a rounding bottom on the long-term chart.

Short-term chart is even more attractive (HEAVY VOLUME baby) ;) :D

Do you hear XING singing? ohhh yeah ;)

I have been buying since $7.50-ish
I added more Friday at $11.06 and still thinking of adding  more.

what happened to earnings after market close?
anyone know?
maxi

rick,

i sold AH at 12.25...was waiting for release...nothing yet...got a little nervous...I'd rather wait and see what's up, than stay in and stay nervous.....my INCX nightmare always haunts me when it comes to earnings....

if it jumps up after earnings, I'll try and get in, hopefully not too late...if you are in, stay strong, fundamentally, this is a winner, technically we had a great new high today...tremendous volume to accompany.

good luck!

vic'

hi,
thanks vic. holding through makes me nervous as well but i am in now so i will have to wait and see. maybe they aren't bringing out their earnings report until later this week.
no news yet.
maxi

I never saw XING confirm what day they would release the Q1 data, only that it was going to be this week.
Anyway, the more people wait the more nervous and trigger happy they'll get. Nice action today on the breakout.

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 26, 2006, 11:34:56 PM
I never saw XING confirm what day they would release the Q1 data, only that it was going to be this week.

Hi Aussie

Great day indeed but the confusion about the earning release is yet another example of how horrendous their investor communication is! Why not give us a date and time  ???

Anyhow it seems earnings will be out after the close today: http://www.companyboardroom.com/company.asp?client=cb&ticker=xing

As said before the Investor Relations at XING is appalling but then it might give us a nice buying opportunity today  ;)

additional info:
XING: Short Interest DN 20.0% to 765.2K in Jun 2006
Monday , June 26, 2006 16:21 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (NasdaqNM: XING) DECREASED 20.0% to 765,168 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE   DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
XING             956,171         765,168        -191,003       -19.98%           1

Based on XING's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,169,540, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


great pick Michael, applaud again

Quote from: Michael on June 27, 2006, 02:13:01 AM

As said before the Investor Relations at XING is appalling but then it might give us a nice buying opportunity today  ;)

Judging by the activity in premarket it looks like this could be another big day for XING.  It has already passed $13!  ;D   I'm actually surprised because I figured it would get punished for the confusion.

 
Tuesday , June 27, 2006 04:49 ET

BEIJING, Jun 27, 2006 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- Cosun Group, the parent company of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (Nasdaq: XING), plans to enter mobile phone chip R&D by investing in a Beijing-based chip maker, according to 21 century Business Herald.

Wu Ruilin, board chairman of Cosun, reveals that the group has decided to invest in the Beijing company and seeks a controlling share in it.

By now, Cosun has launched four R&D centers in China, respectively in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Huizhou. Experts here predict that the company can reduce costs and raise competitive power by self- developing hardcore parts and components of mobile handsets.

With the world's largest mobile phone ownership, China's mobile phone market is dominated by foreign brands. Domestically produced handsets, with a market share of roughly 30 percent, mostly adopt foreign-made chips.

According to the financial report of Qiao Xing, it generated 31 million US dollars of net profit in 2005, growing by 987 percent year on year. Of the amount, about half of profit came from subsidiary CEC Telecom (CECT).

Besides, the company newly received a license to produce Cosun- branded mobile phones in China, which will be put onto mid- and low- end market.

Copyright 2006 XINHUA NEWS AGENCY.

According to "kevinstudio" from yahoo MB we have here another
CSCO  or MSFT ?!  :o

Or that is too good to be true   ???

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600481351&tid=xing&sid=1600481351&mid=111042


Best,
Vova

Does anyone know what is going on with Q1 earnings that were announced for Monday then Tuesday and are still not out? I expect another selling day for XING as it seems like a total disrespect of shareholders... After a number of PRs last week I hoped their reporting improved but it does not seem to be the case....

I bought at 12.00 on Monday and will sell today at market open.  I really don't like to hold through earnings.  I thought I might give it a try, but the way these games have been played with investors the last 2 days is typical XING.   I always remeber some type of controvesy around this stock.  GL 

I will sell too, although I am really positive about this stock... I bought at $8...

Hey Voova,

Kevinstudio has a lot of good XING information I like what he posts, he has been proven accurate many times in the past.

Rpisek and Pompano,
Q1 earnings were never stated by XING to be Monday or Tuesday, they always said 'shortly after 2005 results' All the dates from the various websites etc are purely speculative. I agree XING should give an accurate date, but they did not.

I will be holding, 2005 results were fantastic,I fully expect Q1 and 2006 onwards to be more of the same. If that pans out to be correct then I see XING gapping and breaking away to the upside.

Good luck in whatever you decide.

it has now been corrected and earning.com now shows Q1 results will be reported between 28.6.-30.6. in accordance with the last weeks' PR. I will set a stop limit to $11 and hold. Good luck to all.

Hmmm, looked like a dark cloud cover pattern forming since yesterday, and the drop in the AM seemed to be confirming it so I took my quick little profit.  May well just be people selling before earnings that is causing it, but that together with market uncertainty and I am quite happy getting a small gain.  Good luck to all holding still   :)

hi tokyopua,
not a dark cloud cover pattern. first black candle above the half way point of the previous white candle.
but appluase to you toky, you locked in profits, that is always a good trade
Pattern: Reversal
Trend: Bearish
Reliability: High   
How to Identify it
First day is a long white day
Second day is black with an open above the high of the previous day
Second day closes within but below the midpoint of the first day's body.
max

updated intraday chart; I have bought more  >:D

Quote from: rickjust on June 28, 2006, 10:26:36 AM
hi tokyopua,
not a dark cloud cover pattern. first black candle above the half way point of the previous white candle.
but appluase to you toky, you locked in profits, that is always a good trade
Pattern: Reversal
Trend: Bearish
Reliability: High   
How to Identify it
First day is a long white day
Second day is black with an open above the high of the previous day
Second day closes within but below the midpoint of the first day's body.
max

Hi Max,

Thanks for pointing out the clarification, I realize it is not a dark cloud cover by the pure definition, which is why I said "looked like" a dark cloud cover.  I actually went to check Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison last night to check on the action with Xing wrt dark cloud cover.  He tends to allow for some variation in patterns, but makes distinctions for "likelihood of a reversal".  He says wrt dark cloud cover:

"The greater the degree of penetration into the white real body, the more likely this is a top.  Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50-percent penetratoin of the black session's close into the white real body".

In cases where it doesnt fully close past 50%, he recommends waiting for more bearish confirmation, but I felt like I was seeing that this morning where there was a rapid price drop right out of the gate.  And the Fed meeting has me worried anyway, so I decided to sell based on these combined factors.

The good news though is that there is also a region that should be support around 11.25 due to the gap up there, also a big Nison principle. 

Anyway, sorry for the confusion, and I hope XING zings its way higher from here!

facts will be published tomorrow morning  >:D

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. to Release Certain Key Financial Data for 2006 Q1 at 8:00 AM of June 30 New York Time
Thursday June 29, 9:45 am ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 29 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today announced that it would release certain key financial data for the first quarter of 2006 at 8:00 AM of June 30 New York Time.

XING chart shaping up nicely following breakout of ascending channel. Fridays Q1 release will hopefully catalyse a powerful breakout and start the longer trem revaluation of the stock price.

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. to Release Certain Key Financial Data for 2006 Q1 at 8:00 AM of June 30 New York Time
PR Newswire - June 29, 2006 09:45

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 29, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today announced that it would release certain key financial data for the first quarter of 2006 at 8:00 AM of June 30 New York Time.

I wanted to share this data. It is a copy paste from Yahoo boards posted by Kevinstudio (Kevin Chen). I  read many of his posts he has a lot of in depth factual data regarding XING and seems to provide a lot of true insight into how XING success is shaping up. Only time will tell......

Quoting:
by: kevinstudio
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy

So far this year, Chinese has been kept on spending more on mobile service and paying more for new cell phones as they have done in the past few years. According to articles talking about the newest price trend in 2006, the average price of new 2006 models released to the market so far is higher than the average price of released models in 2005. Major electronic chains also predict that the average price of new models coming to the market in May will keep on increasing! Amazing isn't it?

At the same time, as statistics have shown, CECT's market share and popularity has kept on exploding this year.

Let's see, assuming a 200 million units of cell phone sold in China this year (some people don't like the 400 million units sold predicted by INDUSTRY EXPERTS. So, let's chop that in half to play stubbernly conservative) and an average combined market share of 6% for CECT and Xing, Xing will sell 12 million units of phones this year.

With an average price of US$300 (2,400 yuan), we'll have a revenue of US$ 3.6 billions for 2006. Assuming 20% gross margin, Xing will get $720 millions of gross profit.

Deducting $33 millions of operating and other expenses (2004 number was $24 millions), we get a before-tax income of about $690 millions. Stripping out 30% tax and $3 million minority interest (lesss than the minority interst in 2004 due to larger ownership in CECT), the final net income is $480 millions.

So, current forward P/E basing on current market capital of around $170 millions (20M shares outstanding) stands at 0.32 !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, call my prediction optimistic if you want, but I don't see an obvious bias or deviation from fair probability in my calculation because my assumptions used are based on objective sales data and pricing trends published by authoritative 3rd-party agencies in China in 2005 and 2006.

Even give huge margin of errors, it is hard for 2006 net income to fall below $200 millions. In other words, Xing's current forward P/E is no more than 1 !!!

Everything is ready and waiting ;)

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.'s Net Sales and Gross Profit Increased 18% and 43% Respectively for the First Quarter of 2006
Friday June 30, 8:00 am ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 30 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing
Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) released today, on an un-audited
management account basis, certain key financial data for the first quarter of
2006. Compared with the same period of the previous year, in the first quarter
of 2006, the Company's net sales and gross profit increased 18% and 43%
respectively.


                                                1st Quarter of  1st Quarter of
                                                     2005             2006
                                                  (US$million)    (US$million)
Net sales                                         71.1            84.1
Cost of goods sold                            61.7            70.8
Gross profit                                       9.4            13.3
Operating expenses other
than share-based compensation          (3.6)           (3.9)
Share-based compensation                    --             (7.3)
Income from operations                      5.8             2.1


Net sales increased 18.4% compared with the same period a year earlier. This increase was mainly attributable to the following:

    a. Unit selling price for the 'CECT'-brand mobile phone handsets increased
       as a result of the 'High-End Product Strategy', implemented by CEC
       Telecom Co. Ltd. (CECT), one of XING's operating subsidiaries.
    b. For the 'COSUN'-brand mobile phone handsets introduced by Huizhou Qiao
       Xing Communication Industry, Ltd., another of XING's operating
       subsidiaries, sales increased as the sales network continued to expand
       and the product range moved from low-end only to a complete one
       consisting of high-end, mid-end and low-end products.
    c. For the indoor phone business segment, there were more sales to
       telecommunication operators and more export sales.

As sales revenue increased, gross profit grew US$3.9 from US$9.4 million for the first quarter of 2005 to US$13.3 million for the same period in 2006. This represented an increase of 42.5%

Operating expenses other than stock-based compensation for the first quarter increased US$0.3 million from 2005 to 2006, owing mainly to the increase in staff in research and development in CECT.

Stock-based compensation increased from nil for 2005 Q1 to US$7.3 million for 2006 Q1. In the first quarter of 2006, the Company granted to certain employees and an external consultant stock options to purchase all the 2,000,000 shares of common stock authorized and reserved for issuance under the Stock Compensation Plan set up in 2005. The fair value of the options of US$7.3 million was recorded as share-based compensation expenses.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''Like many other listed companies, XING sets up from time to time Stock Compensation Plans to increase the ability of the Company to secure and retain highly qualified and experienced individuals to serve as officers, directors, employees or advisors of the Company by affording such individuals the opportunity to participate in the appreciation in value of the common stock of the Company upon exercise of stock options granted to such individuals under the Plans. The granting of stock options, though representing an expense in the income statement and having a dilutive effect on earnings, has the advantage of not involving any outflow of cash. In fact, for some senior employees, the lion's share of their total remuneration package is in stock options. The share-based compensation recorded for 2006 Q1 related to the 2005 Plan, and was for services rendered over a long period of time. Indeed, we have to go back to 1999 for the last time a similar plan was set up. Stock options, a portion of which were subsequently re-priced, were granted in 1999 and 2000 under the 1999 Plan, resulting in a total amount of stock-based compensation of US$6.1 million charged to the profit and loss account.

''If we take out the share-based compensation, income from operations would have increased 61.5% to reach US$9.4 million for the first quarter of 2006, compared with US$5.8 million for the same period a year earlier.''

 >:(

This always seems to happen with this company.  Glad I sold on Tuesday.  I will never, I repeat never hold a company through earnings.  This has become one of my golden rules of trading.  It's just not worth it.  If earnings are super and the stock climbs just jump back in.

Selling the news for sure. Looks like the short termers are bailing, probably because of the stock option compensation figure. It is a sizeable figure for sure, but companies do givelots of  options. They have rewarded key personnel without having to pay out cash, options are a fantastic motivator for people.Also  XING have fully disclosed it here in this release so hats off for transparency.

Sales increase is good and XING have indicated 35% year growth 2006 (just recently so they must be super confident in the Q2 and ongoing numbers)
Lets see what the day does, no gap and breakaway as I had been looking for, but the market is yet to open and its still the amatuers at play.

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 30, 2006, 08:56:53 AM
Selling the news for sure. Looks like the short termers are bailing, probably because of the stock option compensation figure. It is a sizeable figure for sure, but companies do give options, and XING have fully disclosed it here in this release so hats off for transparency.

The expectations were obviously very high for this quarter so yes XING will most likely gap down  :-\

But the result is not bad at all. They promised us 35% earnings growth in the next 5 years and delivered 43% before stock option compensation in the first quarter.

The fundamental case for XING is still intact so we will stay with the trading plan.

hi,
i really got caught up in the idea of this gapping up on earnings and broke my trading rule of not holding through earnings. this may yet turn into the hound of the baskervilles. a dog that doesn't bark, bites. ouch
maxi

I think the gap at $9.61 will serve as support for XING, though right now doesnt look to go that low.  I got back in at $9.9, expect a decent rebound.

Interesting to remember:

Q1 is traditionally slowest Q in China for sales XING posted +43% (before the options expense)

Q2 XING released the A1000:
HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 5, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today announced that a new model of mobile phone named ''A1000'' created and produced by its major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd (CECT) had met with enthusiastic reception in the China market. Up to date, USD 62 Million worth of orders of this model have been received from CECT's distributors.

Long term is still the play.

Thanks Aussie.

As a follow up to your last post, here's what I feel to be some excellent supporting news for the strength of this company. The market's reaction differed from my view, however. Evidently the market doesn't feel as strongly as I or more likely it was just a sell the news reaction. Who knows. Personally, I think implementing a stock option plan is a clear sign of strength. I won't waste too many cycles trying to explain the 20% dip this a.m.. But whatever it was, it allowed me to pick up XING again for under 10.

Complete story:
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/06-30-2006/0004390188&EDATE=


Summary:
HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 30 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing
Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) released today, on an un-audited
management account basis, certain key financial data for the first quarter of
2006. Compared with the same period of the previous year, in the first quarter
of 2006, the Company's net sales and gross profit increased 18% and 43%
respectively.

                                                1st Quarter of  1st Quarter of
                                                     2005             2006
                                                  (US$million)    (US$million)
    Net sales                                         71.1            84.1
    Cost of goods sold                           61.7            70.8
    Gross profit                                       9.4            13.3
    Operating expenses other than share-based
     compensation                                 (3.6)           (3.9)
    Share-based compensation                   --           (7.3)
    Income from operations                      5.8             2.1
    Net sales increased 18.4% compared with the same period a year earlier.
This increase was mainly attributable to the following:
    a. Unit selling price for the 'CECT'-brand mobile phone handsets increased
       as a result of the 'High-End Product Strategy', implemented by CEC
       Telecom Co. Ltd. (CECT), one of XING's operating subsidiaries.
    b. For the 'COSUN'-brand mobile phone handsets introduced by Huizhou Qiao
       Xing Communication Industry, Ltd., another of XING's operating
       subsidiaries, sales increased as the sales network continued to expand
       and the product range moved from low-end only to a complete one
       consisting of high-end, mid-end and low-end products.
    c. For the indoor phone business segment, there were more sales to
       telecommunication operators and more export sales.

Yep I added also, long term this will move to a price in line with value.

And remember the A1000 will impact in Q2 onwards:

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, June 5, 2006 /Xinhua-PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today announced that a new model of mobile phone named ''A1000'' created and produced by its major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd (CECT) had met with enthusiastic reception in the China market. Up to date, USD 62 Million worth of orders of this model have been received from CECT's distributors.

It is always interesting to take a step back and look at the fundamentals of your investment on a day like this.

Lets try to remove all the once off costs and gains from the result of 2005 and Q1 2006

Net profit for 2005 was 26.4 million USD
Net profit for Q1 06 was 9.4 million USD

If we annualize the Q1 result we get a result of 37.6 million USD for 2006. (remember that this is conservative as Q1 is a slow quarter as Aussie rightly pointed out)

But with these assumptions (and ignoring dilution!) we get a trailing PE of 9 and a PE for 2006 of 6.3.

This is for a company that grew earnings before extraordinary gains with 700% in 2005 and is expected to grow earnings with 42% this year (with the above mentioned assumptions)

Well I think this is a stellar investment. I don't know how fare the market will take the stock down but I don't think this stock will trade anywhere close to this level one year from now.

I took a gamble and loaded up extra heavily thinking I could sell for a quick pop today.
Instead I got burned.  It's amazing how optimism makes you forget reaistic stock behaviour.

I still think earnings were actually very positive, so this reaction is purely emotional and panic.

I decreased my position by 75% though today, so I guess I am one of the panicked. :-\

Quote from: Michael on June 30, 2006, 12:30:17 PM
But with these assumptions (and ignoring dilution!) we get a trailing PE of 9 and a PE for 2006 of 6.3.

What is the P/E when you calculate in the dilution factor? Wouldn't that be the bottom line?

How about this gap down?  How do you think the stock price will be affected for next week?  It seems to be still dropping in after hours.

very disappointing trading day, hope that XING is recovering soon  :-[

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 30, 2006, 08:56:53 AM
Selling the news for sure. Looks like the short termers are bailing, probably because of the stock option compensation figure. It is a sizeable figure for sure, but companies do givelots of  options. They have rewarded key personnel without having to pay out cash, options are a fantastic motivator for people.Also  XING have fully disclosed it here in this release so hats off for transparency.

Hi Aussie,

Indeed a disappointing day but if the stock options are to blame I am perplexed. This is old information released by the company in February: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051846/000095013406005292/d34113sv8.htm

From the annual report:

QuoteOn February 24, 2006, the compensation committee approved the grant and issuance of 2,000,000 options at an exercise price of $7.00 per share to eleven persons, including the following officers, directors and related parties:

As of June 20, 2006, all 2,000,000 options had been exercised and no options to purchase shares of our common stock under the plan remained outstanding.

The stock options were issued at a strike price of 7 and the price at that time was 7.15. Any one of us could have bought shares cheaper than that since (and some did  ;)).

Now the stock price went up and those insiders who bought the shares are being rewarded for believing in their own company. Well I think they deserve every cent and if this known information is why the stock price dropped on Friday I will consider buying on Monday.

Quote from: Loffigus on June 30, 2006, 01:34:36 PM

Quote from: Michael on June 30, 2006, 12:30:17 PM
But with these assumptions (and ignoring dilution!) we get a trailing PE of 9 and a PE for 2006 of 6.3.

What is the P/E when you calculate in the dilution factor? Wouldn't that be the bottom line?

Good question Loffii. Lets try to calculate that based on known information and guidance.

Here is the fully diluted stock count as of today:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=22957;image)

If we use XINGs guidance to forecast earnings up to 2010 (35% earnings increase per year) and assume no further dilution. (With CECT's IPO this might be a reasonable assumption if this is done as an increase in the share capital)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=22956;image)

So PE this year of 6.3 and 1.5 in 2010.

Finally the weekly chart. As can be seen the strong trend is still intact.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=22959;image)

As said before I don't know where the market is going to take the stock in the coming trading days but this level seems to me to be a good entry point.

The 1st one should read "raising $150M and the market cap can reach $1.5B for CECT"

-------------------------------
This IPO financing amount will reach at least 1.5 billion. By this calculation, the market value of at least CECT listing could reach 1.5 billion U.S. dollars

Acquisitions Zhongdiantongxin (CECT), the introduction of Qiaoxing mobile phone, deploy 3G chip research and development, stripping channels and some non-core operations, many planted in the strategic future, Qiao Xing Universal (Nasdaq : Xing) finally launched a long-planned capital projects -- Lee CECT States listed.

"Financial Times" through various channels was informed that the current Qiao Xing has begun, with several investment banks including Goldman Sachs contacts to determine CECT first public shares (IPO) of 1,595.

Although at present Qiaoxing a underwriters for its initial public offering have not yet signed with any intention of the agreement, the final location is listed on Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange, the shell company is CECT Qiao Xing Mobile (holding CECT90% shares) as a main listing, or to CECT as listed entities, are not yet known. But many firms have been given including the issuance price dropped interval, the number of shares issued and the amount of financing, market, listing timetable for the IPO, the programme. If everything goes smoothly, CECT will be in the earliest years of listing.

According to industry experts estimate that 10% of the shares issued in terms of the financing of CECT This IPO will reach at least 1.5 billion. By this calculation, the market value of at least CECT listing could reach 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Three rounds of private

Qiao Xing Universal listing of Chinese Taipei CECT news from the beginning of the three private, Qiao Xing Universal evident.

April 28, after twice previously issued to overseas investors about 20 million U.S. dollars of convertible bonds, Qiao Xing Universal and overseas strategic investors with the two signed a binding agreement to the value of 40 million U.S. dollars sold the convertible bonds.

Under the agreement, convertible bondholders in the three years after the completion of the transaction, based on its sale of these privileges Qiaoxing Universal convertible bonds into ordinary shares. These bonds can be converted into offshore companies CECT (shell company) and listed the main -- Qiao Xing Mobile (Qiao Xing Universal holding 80%) for the first time, openly shares ordinary shares of the bank prices may fall Qiao Xing Mobile 2005 surplus seven times the price calculation.

According to Qiao Xing chairman Wu Ruilin groups revealed that, in order to ensure that the BVI registered in the first stage of the major shareholders holding position, the strategic investors to buy the bonds if Qiaoxing Universal ordinary shares, the largest percentage would not exceed 9.9%. Once more than 9.9%, it is necessary to go beyond the partial sell, and the reduction to less than 9.9% can be re-conversion.

If the strategic investors to buy the bonds all Qiao Xing Mobile Communications Limited shares, the largest percentage in over 10% is expected. The final accounting for the number of units also depends on the situation and the profits for the same period CECT mobile Qiaoxing valuation.

Wu Ruilin said three occasions to the 60 million U.S. dollars worth, CECT will be mainly used for research and development in areas such as 3G and market expansion.

Public information, as early as February 2003, Qiao Xing Universal flag subsidiary Qiao Xing Mobile has spent 316 million yuan to purchase a CECT65% shares. October 2005, Qiao Xing Universal holding 90% of the telecommunications subsidiary Qiao Xing CECT25% also spend 80 million yuan to purchase the shares and the transfer of shares registered in the BVI to the Qiao Xing Mobile Communications Limited, the holding so that the latter reached 90% in CECT. This year, Qiaoxing CECT also bought another 10% of shares and, in doing so, the controlling stockholder Qiaoxing Universal Qiao Xing Mobile CECT effective for the remaining few reached 80%.

Based on these calculations, even in the IPO CECT, Qiao Xing Universal CECT in the few remaining 70% will remain in the polls.

Second layout

Along with being the IPO plan, Qiaoxing strategy in the field of mobile phones is largely in place a cloth.

June 22, a subsidiary of Qiao Xing Qiao Xing Universal access to telecommunications for the first time issued by the State Policy GSM mobile phone manufacturing licences and one new launch 25 mobile phones. This, coupled with the GSM and CDMA CECT already have two mobile phone licences, Qiaoxing of actual control has three mobile phone licences as Zhang.

Reporters learn that the two brands of Qiaoxing CECT mobile phone handsets and mobile phone now from Qiao Xing Wu Ruilin two sons Wuzhiyang and Wuzhizhong.

In fact, as early as the beginning of 1999, Qiao Xing Universal listing, Wu Ruilin has relatively Guhua, more profits interest in the mobile phone market occurred. This year, he sent the eldest son Wuzhiyang dedicated mobile phone project, and South Korea plans to CDMA modern joint venture, due to various reasons, nothing ;2001 November, through the establishment of Qiaoxing Telecommunication mobile telecommunications department, Wu Ruilin drum ripe to attempt to apply for mobile phones through mobile phone licence to market access cards, but the result is not ideal. Helpless, the one he finally grit one's teeth with 3.16 billion shares purchased CECT65%, which specifically involved in the mobile phone market gained admission tickets.

As of press time today, Qiao Xing Universal share price jumping 12.40 billion, higher than another concept Nasdaq mobile communications unit UT Sidakang's stock nearly doubled.

Wu Ruilin said that the current CECT mobile phone handsets and Qiaoxing production orders from major industrial park located in Huizhou Qiaoxing the production base completed. Research and development, in Huizhou Qiao Xing, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have four to six mobile phone design companies, in addition to a number of shares or strategic nature of the research and development cooperation agencies, such as the CLP dragon (CECW), CLP Austrian Sheng (CECM), Shanghai style.

Links

Qiaoxing Founded in 1992, mainly engaged in the communications terminal products research, development, production and marketing, domestic large telephone, cellular phone, and other communications products manufacturing enterprises subordinate holding subsidiaries include Qiaoxing Telecommunication, Zhongdiantongxin. February 1999, "Qiao Xing Universal" in the U.S. Nasdaq stock listing ;2002 March, Qiao Xing Universal to 316 million yuan from Tianjin Taida and China Electronics Group Zhongdiantongxin acquired 65% holding hands right after the completion of the remaining 35% of shares have been acquired; In June this year, Qiaoxing Telecommunication access GSM mobile phone licence as Zhongdiantongxin IPO implementation Qiaoxing of three mobile phone licences will be owned, two mobile phones and two brands of communications products overseas listed companies producers. (n103)


The article Source : Financial Times

awesome update and clarification, premarket 11$  >:D >:D >:D

Chairman's Message of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.: Review of 2005 and the First Quarter of 2006 and Outlook for the Remaining Quarters of 2006
Monday July 3, 8:00 am ET

--The Company Anticipates that Net Income would Grow at an Average Yearly Rate of 35% in the Medium Term.

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, July 3 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today issued its Chairman's message. In the message, Chairman Wu Rui Lin said:

''For 2005, XING's net sales, gross profit, net income and earnings per share all reached a record-high. Our major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT) continued its growth and became even more profitable. XING's other operating subsidiary, Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. (HZQXCI), also achieved significant growth with net income from its mobile phone and indoor phone business segments increasing by 640% and 144% respectively compared with a year earlier.

''XING's growth momentum continued in the first quarter of 2006, with CECT reaching the medium-term goal that it set itself not so long ago of becoming one of the five top local players in the mobile phone handset market in China in terms of market share.

''To retain and reward our high-calibre officers, key employees and strategic consultant who have devoted their time and effort to contribute to our dramatic success in the past six years, in February this year we have granted them options to purchase all the 2,000,000 shares of common stock authorized and reserved for issuance under the Stock Compensation Plan set up in 2005. Fair value of the options of US$ 7.3 million was recorded as share- based compensation expenses. Option grants, being useful in anchoring key members of senior management to the Company, further the long-term interests of the Company, and by extension, those of its shareholders. These options were subsequently exercised in cash and have brought new capital to the Company. However, as the accounting principles require, they are booked as expenses in the profit and loss account and have a potentially dilutive effect on earnings.''

''In fact, the last time options were granted under a similar plan was in 1999 and 2000. We have not yet scheduled any stock option plan for the coming years and all our compensation plans have to be reviewed and approved by our compensation committee and independent directors.

''If the share-based compensation expenses, which did not involve any outflow of cash, had been taken out, XING's income from operations (before interest, tax and minority interests) for the first quarter of 2006 would have reached US$ 9.4 million, an increase of 61.5% compared with the same period last year.

''When we look at the remaining quarters of 2006, one thing to remember is that traditionally among all quarters, sales in the first are the slowest in the mobile phone handset market in China. With that in mind:

-- In the second quarter of 2006, CECT moved up one place further in the league table of market share to rank fourth among local players in the mobile phone handset market in China. It recently launched a number of new models of high-end mobile phones with sophisticated functionalities and distinctive features at competitive prices, many of which met with varying degrees of success. In particular, orders worth US$62 million have been received for the 'A1000' Model, which boasts a standby-time of up to 1,000 hours thanks to a long-life battery. Still more new models are in the pipeline. CECT can expect an average yearly net income growth of 35% for the coming years.

-- Just a few weeks ago, HZQXCI was granted by the National Development and Reform Commission of China a manufacturing license for mobile phone terminal products. The last impediment to XING'S dual brand mobile phone strategy has been cleared. In the distributor fairs held recently, HZQXCI announced the launch of 22 new models of mobile phone handsets and received US$50 million's worth of orders. HZQXCI expects that the sale of its 'COSUN'- brand handsets will double in 2006. It has also been working on expanding its overseas markets for mobile phone handsets.

-- Both CECT and HZQXCI are getting their mobile phone handsets ready for the debut of the 3G era in China.

-- HZQXCI anticipates more big-volume orders of indoor telephones from domestic and overseas telecommunication operators. Revenue from the sale of indoor telephone sets for 2006 could increase by up to 60% compared with 2005.

''''We anticipate that XING's net sales would increase up to 30% from a year earlier to reach US$ 463 million, and that in the medium term, XING's net income would grow at an average yearly rate of 35% from 2006 to 2010.''

nice clarification, premarket 11 $ >:D >:D

Chairman's Message of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.: Review of 2005 and the First Quarter of 2006 and Outlook for the Remaining Quarters of 2006
Monday July 3, 8:00 am ET
--The Company Anticipates that Net Income would Grow at an Average Yearly Rate of 35% in the Medium Term.

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, July 3 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today issued its Chairman's message. In the message, Chairman Wu Rui Lin said:

''For 2005, XING's net sales, gross profit, net income and earnings per share all reached a record-high. Our major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT) continued its growth and became even more profitable. XING's other operating subsidiary, Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. (HZQXCI), also achieved significant growth with net income from its mobile phone and indoor phone business segments increasing by 640% and 144% respectively compared with a year earlier.

''XING's growth momentum continued in the first quarter of 2006, with CECT reaching the medium-term goal that it set itself not so long ago of becoming one of the five top local players in the mobile phone handset market in China in terms of market share.

''To retain and reward our high-calibre officers, key employees and strategic consultant who have devoted their time and effort to contribute to our dramatic success in the past six years, in February this year we have granted them options to purchase all the 2,000,000 shares of common stock authorized and reserved for issuance under the Stock Compensation Plan set up in 2005. Fair value of the options of US$ 7.3 million was recorded as share- based compensation expenses. Option grants, being useful in anchoring key members of senior management to the Company, further the long-term interests of the Company, and by extension, those of its shareholders. These options were subsequently exercised in cash and have brought new capital to the Company. However, as the accounting principles require, they are booked as expenses in the profit and loss account and have a potentially dilutive effect on earnings.''

''In fact, the last time options were granted under a similar plan was in 1999 and 2000. We have not yet scheduled any stock option plan for the coming years and all our compensation plans have to be reviewed and approved by our compensation committee and independent directors.

''If the share-based compensation expenses, which did not involve any outflow of cash, had been taken out, XING's income from operations (before interest, tax and minority interests) for the first quarter of 2006 would have reached US$ 9.4 million, an increase of 61.5% compared with the same period last year.

''When we look at the remaining quarters of 2006, one thing to remember is that traditionally among all quarters, sales in the first are the slowest in the mobile phone handset market in China. With that in mind:

-- In the second quarter of 2006, CECT moved up one place further in the league table of market share to rank fourth among local players in the mobile phone handset market in China. It recently launched a number of new models of high-end mobile phones with sophisticated functionalities and distinctive features at competitive prices, many of which met with varying degrees of success. In particular, orders worth US$62 million have been received for the 'A1000' Model, which boasts a standby-time of up to 1,000 hours thanks to a long-life battery. Still more new models are in the pipeline. CECT can expect an average yearly net income growth of 35% for the coming years.

-- Just a few weeks ago, HZQXCI was granted by the National Development and Reform Commission of China a manufacturing license for mobile phone terminal products. The last impediment to XING'S dual brand mobile phone strategy has been cleared. In the distributor fairs held recently, HZQXCI announced the launch of 22 new models of mobile phone handsets and received US$50 million's worth of orders. HZQXCI expects that the sale of its 'COSUN'- brand handsets will double in 2006. It has also been working on expanding its overseas markets for mobile phone handsets.

-- Both CECT and HZQXCI are getting their mobile phone handsets ready for the debut of the 3G era in China.

-- HZQXCI anticipates more big-volume orders of indoor telephones from domestic and overseas telecommunication operators. Revenue from the sale of indoor telephone sets for 2006 could increase by up to 60% compared with 2005.

''''We anticipate that XING's net sales would increase up to 30% from a year earlier to reach US$ 463 million, and that in the medium term, XING's net income would grow at an average yearly rate of 35% from 2006 to 2010.''

Great news. I am impressed by their speed of response, and this is shorts' nightmare.

The stock market is such a strange and interesting environment, it sucks you in  ;) it spits you out  :'( It plays on your emotions, it destroys some, it elevates others.

My opinion, XING is now a ball of fire, it's been trying to breakout big (because of a huge shift in fundamentals), but getting pulled back by it's historical trading pattern and mistrust from speculators nd the market. I am thinking that soon (but I don't know how soon) that ball of fire will become unstoppable and get a huge move on.

Good Trading

Quote from: tokyopua on June 30, 2006, 10:06:48 AM
I think the gap at $9.61 will serve as support for XING, though right now doesnt look to go that low.  I got back in at $9.9, expect a decent rebound.

Well, this was far better than I could have expected for a rebound! XING looking today like it wants to get back to its highs right before the drops due to the confusion in the press release about the stock options  ;D

XING just got mentioned on CNBC, a short mention about its strong forecast.  Nice!

nice day for XING  8)

Wow, XING is HUNGRY to fill that open gap!!!

....

Or not... seems like we got within 4 cents of closing the gap and then it became a resistance level.  Of course, the horrible day for the Nasdaq and all the Korean missle hype didnt make it any easier, but it was sad to see XING not hold on to those nice gains it made early on.

The weekly charts shows why XING will need to break that resistance. Uptrending channel (upper end) and long term resistance zone meet around the $11.60 area.
Well Tokyo, it is interesting to note that the sell off on XING started just around 3.00pm, so the 'professionals' wanted the price lower going into thursday. Why? No idea, maybe we find out today.

Good Trading

Short-term, XING has some technical problems.

The high prior to the big gap up was 10.49.  That's been filled at this morning's 10.50 low, but a H&S Top was broken (neckline 11.01 and 11.00) that put Target 10.11 IN PLAY, and there's a Symmetrical Triangle that was broken to the downside, after the H&S was put in.

The SOHU news doesn't help any.  They've lowered their next two quarters' revenue estimates due to changes in government regulations.

The last three weeks have been quite volatile and we are now entering a phase of consolidation. We are seeing a combination of profit taking and momentum traders closing out their positions. Short term I could see the stock drift lower from here, which could create some great buying opportunities over the support at 9.75.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=23146;image)

Fundamentally the stock is still an amazing bargain and as we know the stock can take off without any warning so I wouldn't recommend to close your position here but rather trim it down to a core position so you have cash available if the market decides to offer us the opportunity to buy around 10 again.

There is an interesting piece of news out in the Chinese media. The google translation is as always a bit challenging but this one didn't come out too bad: http://www.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fcolumn.bokee.com%2F158005.html&la

QuoteIn announcing the formal launch of Cosun brand mobile phone after three days, it triggered a chain reaction of the domestic mobile phone market, one time more than 200 dealers from across the country to come in swarms and full access Qiao Xing Industrial Park vehicles visited. In addition to the high rise market enthusiasm of the new brand Cosun surprises, but also bring more unprepared. "Market reaction is too strong, dealers queues to discuss cooperation, only three days to receive 400 million. "Qiaoxing Group Executive Director and Head of Qiaoxing Telecommunication Wuzhizhong said.

We must assume that this means that Cosun sold phones for 400 million Yuan or 50 million USD during three days. It is not clear whether this revenue comes in addition to the 50 million revenue Mr. Wu announced in the outlook for the rest of 2006:

QuoteJust a few weeks ago, HZQXCI was granted by the National Development and Reform Commission of China a manufacturing license for mobile phone terminal products. The last impediment to XING'S dual brand mobile phone strategy has been cleared. In the distributor fairs held recently, HZQXCI announced the launch of 22 new models of mobile phone handsets and received US$50 million's worth of orders. HZQXCI expects that the sale of its 'COSUN'- brand handsets will double in 2006. It has also been working on expanding its overseas markets for mobile phone handsets.

In either case it is nice to see that Cosun is executing their business plan. Most focus has been on CECT (for good reasons) and it seems like most investors has forgot that XING has other assets that are hugely discounted at today's share price.

Disclosure - I am holding XING and am not selling here. I am rather looking to add at around 10 ;)

Michael

What do you think about strong competition
in handset market in China. TCL and Bird already lose
money...  ???

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Services/Communications_Services/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=115748&mid=115748&tof=6&frt=2


Best,
Vova

Quote from: voova99 on July 09, 2006, 11:33:50 AM
Michael

What do you think about strong competition
in handset market in China. TCL and Bird already lose
money...  ???

Best,
Vova

Of course I am worried about competition but competition is not new to the Chinese handset market. On the contrary the major handset suppliers have been joggling for position for years investing a huge amount of money due to the size of the market. There will be winners and losers.

Judging from independent market research CECT is one of the winners. I guess it comes down to Business strategy and execution.

Compared to TCL and Bird, CECT has successfully positioned themselves at the high-end of the market, which seems to command better margin than the low-end, which primarily competes on price.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21741;image)

We have already talked a bit about their world leading handsets but their distribution and warranty terms are also outstanding. If I remember right they have more than 5000 service centers so they are really close to the customer compared to some of their competitors

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21738;image)

Finally they have managed to build a strong brand, I posted a link to a market research previously, which showed that the value of CECT's brand is close to the market cap of XING!

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21742;image)

So yes it is important to keep an eye on the competition but as long as CECT keep defending or increasing their market share and executing their strategy flawlessly we will do just fine  :D

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 07, 2006, 10:47:38 AM
Short-term, XING has some technical problems.

The high prior to the big gap up was 10.49.  That's been filled at this morning's 10.50 low, but a H&S Top was broken (neckline 11.01 and 11.00) that put Target 10.11 IN PLAY, and there's a Symmetrical Triangle that was broken to the downside, after the H&S was put in.

H&S Top target MADE within one penny, at 10.12.

Quote

Thank You for  :o response, Michael.



Best,
Vova

The market gave us one more chance to buy below 10 before reversing and ending the day at the top of a beautiful white candle  ;D

Michael: Are you planning to sell XING?, it touched stop 9.75

Look at AERT, dropped below 2.58,  rebounded  and now it is going up

?? Thanks

Quote from: magu on July 18, 2006, 01:50:38 PM
Michael: Are you planning to sell XING?, it touched stop 9.75

?? Thanks

Hi Magu

Our stop for XING is 6.8 so no I am not selling XING  :)

It is a very generous stop and the reason is very simple. We know that the CECT IPO is going to happen soon after the release of earnings and there is no way (in my opinion) that CECT and therefore XING is not going to report stellar earnings.

We know that the revenue is there (not only for CECT but also for Cosun), The stock options is out of the way and Chinese economy has just recorded record growth (could it be that the increased wealth of the Chinese is used to buy mobile phones  ;))

This is a very bearish market and the 3SOV reflects this. We are only holding two stocks: KOMG and XING. For different reasons I think it is prudent to hold these two stocks during this correction of the market.

I was out again at 10.7, but have an order in again for 9.60 if I can get it filled.  That should be a good support area as its close to the 50sma and therecent open gap (which is very small now at .01 difference between 9.6 and 9.59, but still open nonetheless).  Looks like I may have missed my chance, as XING already bounced right at 9.60. 

Michael, thanks for your answer, i noticed i was wrong about the stop, you said 9.75 was a support and it managed to recover so this might be a good chance to buy some.

thanks again.

Numbers look great on this stock. Next Q should be announced next few weeks and should be great.  Upped guidance shows this stock now trading at 5 times EPS.  With their growth rate this one should fly soon.  I think the street is watching to see what the next Q brings before letting it go.

Quote from: magu on July 18, 2006, 04:40:15 PM
Michael, thanks for your answer, i noticed i was wrong about the stop, you said 9.75 was a support and it managed to recover so this might be a good chance to buy some.

Hi Magu

It certainly seems like buying at 9.75 is a good strategy  :D

We are getting used to great news from XING on a daily basis so it is nice to see a move to the upside without any news. Imagine what will happen when we get some real news  ;)

The $9.60 zone which is now combined with 50sma is providing very strong support for XING.

I guess the next few weeks leading up to earnings will be very interesting to say the least. XING should have a great number to show as well as the ongoing great story, new product launches, IPO, market share gains and don't forget China as a whole grew 10% in Q2.

Don't worry about the doomsayers complaining about options sucking profit out of Q1. Look at how many companies are currently struggling with the whole option granting issue relative to showing them as costs now. XING were fully disclosing what they did, and they have stated there would be no option expenses in Q2.

Good Trading

This is the filing relating to the warrant holders and is not new news of dilution. I Hope the market remembers that, in the current climate you never know....

DJ Qiao Xing Universal Registers 10.2M Shrs For Holders   

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc. (XING) filed Friday a registration to allow for the sale of up to 10.2 million shares of common stock from time to time by shareholders.

DKR SoundShore Oasis Holding Fund Ltd., Cedar DKR Holding Fund Ltd. and Worldwide Gateway Co. were listed as the selling holders.

The total shares covered under the registration will be issued to the selling holders upon conversion of their outstanding convertible notes and upon exercise of their outstanding warrants, Friday's filing said.

The company said it won't receive any of the proceeds of sales of common stock by the selling holders, but may receive up to $14.8 million from the exercise of warrants.

Edgar filing link http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051846/000095013406014072/d38076fv3.htm

A little bit of volume and XING gets excited. Another touch on that resistance zone (red line weekly chart) that has proven to be such a tough area to hold on to. Over the coming weeks I think that zone will become history.
Good Trading

I fully expect XING to report a blowout Q2 in the next couple weeks or so. But, now I also expect the market to sell the news regardless of the news, it just seems that is the market right now. Sure I hope XING will be different, but based on recent events that hope on a risk reward level is losing it's lustre. So I have to change my trading plan some to protect myself. I'm moving my stop just below the 50sma which currently sits just above $10. If it violates then I'll look for support for accumulation again maybe down in the low $9 zone.
If I had 6.66% of my capital in XING (like 3SoF) I would keep a much looser stop still, but my position is a lot bigger than that and hence my reasoning  (combined with current market sentiment).
Good Trading

Some questions about the trading plan for XING:

We took position at >$7 and now >$10.00

I don't know why the stop loss order is $6.80. We have >30% profit already and should move the stop loss order higher to protect the profit, not tuning a profit into a loss.

Just my opinion.

XING finding nice support from the 50sma and short term ascending support line (which coincides with the 50sma zone).
XING has very low institutional holdings, but interestingly 3 insti's took positions reported for end June:

Goldman Sachs 211K shares. This is the first time Goldman has bought XING shares in a long time and it is rumoured they are part of the CECT IPO planning.
UBS Added 71K shares to bring their holding to 84K total
MILLENIUM MANAGEMENT Added 68K shares to bring their holding to 87K

There was also some smaller insti buys from Reynolds Capital and Wolverine Asset which offset small sales by Merril Lynch and Bank of NY (Hey maybe Merril sold because the aren't in the CECT play  ;)

Insti holding now stands at 4.8%.

Also the Wu family bought shares Rui Lin added 245K, Zhi Yang added 150K (obviously they know whats going on in XING  :o

Link for that info: http://www.adr.com/adr?page=sum&formtype=1&site=ADR&ticker=xing

Speculation I know, but for sure  Goldman will have the inside track on XING's Q2 number and forward pland, so this can only be positive.
My only concern remains that is it is such a bad market for anyone with decent news. That however is in the hands of Mr Market, nothing I can do about that except protect my investment as best as possible:

Link for Insti holdings: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&symbol=xing&symbol=GIGM&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=XING

Quote from: shawFund on August 10, 2006, 07:45:49 PM
Some questions about the trading plan for XING:

We took position at >$7 and now >$10.00

I don't know why the stop loss order is $6.80. We have >30% profit already and should move the stop loss order higher to protect the profit, not tuning a profit into a loss.

Just my opinion.

Hi Shawfund,

I have to say that I am not in a hurry to revise the stop. XING has repeatedly shown that having a tight stop is not the best way to play this stock.

Look what happened in the middle of June when the stock dropped with 20% over two trading days just to reverse with a 50% increase over the following 5 trading days. Even though XING has shown remarkable strength in the absence of any news the last couple of weeks it is still a very volatile stock.

When that is said there might be room for increasing the stop above our entry price. The first strong support is around 8.5 so a stop just below that seems to be a wise for those who are not comfortable with the loose stop we have on XING. This stop will still leave room for some wild swings  ;)

Welcome back Michael.

Institution watch (read my previous post for initial detail):

MORGAN STANLEY added 224K shares, total holding now 307K
HIGHBRIDGE Cap new position 49K shares
CREDIT SUISSE added 31K shares holding now 46K
BEAR STEARNS new position 24K shares
There were other small positions taken by other organisations also.

TIGER GLOBAL sold out their position 399K shares

Some big names there taking positions prior to:

1) Q2 Earnings
2) CECT IPO
3) Potential other IPO

Good Trading

 >:D >:D >:D >:D

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. Provides Estimates of Certain Key Financial Data for the Second Quarter of 2006 Ahead of the Release of Half-year Financial Statements
Monday August 21, 8:30 am ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, Aug. 21 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today provides an estimate, on an un-audited management account basis, of certain key financial data for the second quarter of 2006 ahead of the release of half-yearly financial statements.

Net sales for the second quarter of 2006 for XING are estimated to increase 36% from the same period a year earlier to RMB 770.9 million (US$ 96.4 million). The increase is mainly the result of strong growth momentum in ''CECT'' brand mobile phone handsets. According to the survey of SINO Market, in the second quarter of 2006, the ''CECT'' brand moved up one place further in the league table of market share to rank fourth among local players in the mobile phone handset market in China. A number of new models of high-end mobile phones with sophisticated functionalities and distinctive features were launched at competitive prices. Also, there was a higher proportion of higher-end products in the sales mix.

The Company estimates gross profit for the second quarter of 2006 for XING to increase 90% from the same period a year earlier to RMB 142.4 million (US$ 17.8 million). The increase mainly came from the ''CECT'' brand mobile phone handsets. A premium product mix enabled generation of higher gross profit margins. In addition, cost-saving measures in procurement and sub-contracting continued to produce results to bring down the cost of goods sold.

Operating expenses for the second quarter of 2006 for XING are estimated to increase 25% from the same period a year earlier to RMB 39.4 million (US$ 4.9 million), which was in line with the increase in net sales.

Income from operations (before other income/expenses, interest, tax and minority interests) for the second quarter of 2006 for XING is estimated to increase 136% from the same period a year earlier to reach RMB 103.0 million (US$ 12.9 million).

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''We are pleased to bring to you these estimates of key financial data for the second quarter of 2006. They are highly satisfactory and indicate that the fundamentals of XING's operations are sound. We maintain our forecast for XING that net sales would grow 30% compared with 2005, and that net income would grow at an average yearly rate of 35% in the medium term.

''XING's consolidated balance sheet as at June 30, 2006 and income statement including information about earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2006 are currently under preparation and will be released in several weeks.''

Nice guide on the Q2 earnings, but as with all things XING they kinda leave the door open a bit to  not quite deliver true breakout news. Namely the quote ''XING's consolidated balance sheet as at June 30, 2006 and income statement including information about earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2006 are currently under preparation and will be released in several weeks.'' Just too open ended for a nervous market looking to reward.
Anyway that said, technically todays action was pre market hype running up to the highs followed by market hours consolidation and a close near the low. Volume was good. Daily chart now has a $0.35c gap which more than likely will fill before the price can consolidate and move up some. Looks simmilar to the June 20th black candle gap up (after the 2005 results announced). That gap filled next day and then reversed back up to set new 52 week highs 4 days later at $12.94.
I hope they perhaps have some news in the next days regarding IPO to help keep the momentum going, because otherwise that 'several weeks' statement may act as a bit of a heavy drag net.
Anyway I like my long term chart which shows the price sitting just on top of that multi tested resistance line, lets see if it can hold as support.

A new analyst's report, target price of $17.44!!  ;D

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060830/20060830005605.html?.v=1

For those interested here is the Dutton report .pdf http://www.jmdutton.com/research/xing/reports/xing_report_083006.pdf

Just so all know Dutton do receive payment from XING for the analysis and report and they have been engaged by XING since 2005. That's OK as they provide a comprehensive analysis and summary of XING business both historical and forward looking which will help the investment community access data on XING. But this is not an insititution initiating cooverage and that is a big difference.
Anyway the report basically pulls together everything that is known about XING and nicely presents an undervalued stock in a high growth arena, gaining market share with leading and innovative products (most of which we know really) and sets a strong buy rating with target $17.44. Which is not unrealistic based on the known financials and guidance.

One VERY interesting point raised is the summary quoshing of a CECT IPO. Xing management say 'the CECT IPO is merely rumors'  although they 'do not rule out the possibility of a listing' ???
Now that means that all the press discussion and seemingly quotes from XING on the IPO were either false or purely theoretical discussions which were reported as fact or even perhaps a way of XING management floating the concept out to the market and then deciding for whatever reason not to execute it further.Whichever it takes away a stock price moving catalyst that part of my investment in XING was geared upon.

Summary for me: The report will get more people interested, the target price is not unrealistic, the CECT IPO removes a price enhancing catalyst that speculators like to work on.

Institutions are taking positions in XING, but not it seems because of an upcoming IPO. So we are back to the fact that XING is undervalued and somewhat untrusted by the investment community (due to historical issues) and that really is the same situation as it was before.

I think I will be selling positions into upcoming strength (not all my holding), not because I have gone bearish on XING, but really to reduce my exposure because CECT IPO was a part of my reasoning for investment.

Good Trading

I have lowered my XING exposure. Technically I quite like the current look of the chart, but with XING.....you just never know ;)

Interesting shakeout over the past few sessions. A retest of the 50sma on low volume and then a bounce to the upper descending line. As my notes said I had a stop at $10.70, but didn't sell as volume was low and I suspected this was just a retest of support before a new upward move. Todays close  near the high and right on the descending line of resistance. I expect to see the 1H results out next week.

Another good session for XING closing above the descending resistance and stopping at previous spike high points. Volume is OK but not decisive. Interestingly Sept options expire this Saturday and the XING $12.50 calls have a high open interest 7,088 contracts (2 to 1 relative to the same strike Puts). I can't help thinking that the price action is related to the $12.50 strike price, that is a lot of calls written which with the past 2 sessions reversing what would be nice gains (for writers) into potentially losses. I have some Sept $12.50 calls (they have currently nominal value $0.05c, but won't if $12.50 goes, so will see how Friday session plays out.

XING doing very nicely, volume is building and the rise is controlled rather than gappy and erratic, which adds strength to the underlying support.
As usual when stocks get a nice move underway rumours start to circulate to try and add fuel / justify the action. The latest XING rumour being they might be acquired by TCL (larger Chinese telecom competitor). Who knows, anyway regardless it doesn't affect my trading plan.
Charts looking strong, my long term chart shows the relative position of XING now working its way through historical resistance zone.
Good Trading

New breakout to 52 week high. XING is behaving very nicely and showing excellent strengh. The breakout above $13 is a significant move. I have shortened the time frame of the long term chart to display the importance of where XING sits now.

welll, just awseome....
>:D

Nice retest of previous breakout point ($13) and resumption of momentum. That is classic breakout / backfill / continue strong chart action. Any stock setting new 52 week / multi year highs is a stock you want in your port.

XING is now entering it's period of better transparency, remember they have stated that starting from Q3 they will start releasing quarterly results in a more timely and comprehensive manner. So over the coming couple months we will see 1H results, Q3 new transparency results, guidance update for 2006 (based on results we see from Q1 through Q3), commentary relating to market position, new product release, CECT update (perhaps) etc. All in all lots in the pipe to add fuel on the action.

My stop is moved to $12.60 trailing the 9ema, sitting below the just created reaction low and just about 1.25 ATR. Right now I am considering splitting to a 50:50 stop approach tucking half up closer to the action, but not decided yet. The swing trade target is $16 (see my 18th sept notes on chart). So will look take some profit there, although I am looking to hold most position longer.

Good Trading

Nice coverage here Aussie (appl), this thing looks like a blockbuster. Clear skys ahead.
Congrats! :o

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on September 26, 2006, 08:07:49 AM
Nice coverage here Aussie (appl), this thing looks like a blockbuster. Clear skys ahead.
Congrats! :o

uc.

Thanks UC, XING still looking strong, consolidating in a  bull flag right now. I expect it will break to the upside, have moved my stop just a bit closer to $12.80, again not a hard stop as XING has the habit of downside faking prior to strong continuation. Can't do anymore than that, let the trade take its shape.

XING trying to move out the flag some, but no real conviction yet. This week I am expecting news from XING regarding earnings etc and continuation in price for the stock. I have moved my stop up again to protect my total position as currently markets seem to be getting toppy. I don't expect XING to correct in fact the opposite, but need to protect my profit.

I am still long XING and think there is plenty of fuel left in the tank. I will not be surprised if XING trades at somewhere near $30 going into / early 2007.

The upcoming 1H results and the new Q3 onwards reporting transparency combined with the market penetration / growth XING is seeing and the increasing position taking from institutions are combining nicely.

These long term charts show nicely the opportunity and current significant resistance areas. First chart is weekly, second monthly:

A good day for XING and also the markets in general. Still within the bull flag area but on the cusp of breaking out. I added to my position on the low volume pullback to the flag bottom on Tuesday, seemed to be a low risk entry. I am still expecting upside break to occur. On decent break of this continuation pattern / $14.60 area I will move my stop up to $13.50 area which has proven good support.

Quote from: AussieTrader on October 05, 2006, 07:29:33 AM
I am still expecting upside break to occur. On decent break of this continuation pattern / $14.60 area I will move my stop up to $13.50 area which has proven good support.

Hi Aussie,

Thanks for all your hardwork on XING. I guess the rest of us are just enjoying a free ride to the north  ;)

XING showed continued strength yesterday with a close at the top of a beautiful white candle. A revision of 3SOF's stop is long overdue. I will however put a bit more safety margin in than you suggest. XING has repeatedly shown that it can have erratic moves (both to the upside and down side  ::)) around earning releases.

We will set a new stop at 12.4. This protects our profit on this trade but still leave space for some wild swings.

XING is still incredible cheap based on fundamentals and we should soon have a lot of news out. In fact I have a feeling that the news are already outthere somewhere!

Symmetrical Triangle Target 15.20 MADE.

Quote from: Michael on October 10, 2006, 12:41:08 AM

XING is still incredible cheap based on fundamentals and we should soon have a lot of news out. In fact I have a feeling that the news are already outthere somewhere!

Damn right Michael, loads of buying pressure over the past few sessions, lots of people are wanting a bit of XING before the 'news is out' And, as Michael suggests lots of people are buying XING as they already know the news and are buying ahead of its release.

Talking of 'news' there remains persistant discussion of an acquisition of XING or one of its subsidiary e.g. CECT. Who knows for sure, but it all goes to add the fuel.

Here is a long term monthly chart showing significant resistance which has just been breached. And showing the potential upside. In fact any chart you pull up on XING right now looks HOT!!!!!!

Good Trading

Good pick. >100% gain so far. The problem for this account is that we are 70% in cash.


SVA in at $2.10 last month, $3.70 now and 76% gain so far.
Portfolio gined another 2.3% in October.
Total gained 2,186% since 2001-07-01.
Total gained 70% since 2006-06-01.

Amazing performance shawfund... applaud ;)

Congrats to shawfund. I will pay extra attention to your stock picks from now on!!!

I guess we are all waiting for the earnings release   ::)

Interesting how time can change the sentiment on a stock!

1 year ago when XING traded below 6 anybody who spared 5 minutes could see that this stock had tremendous potential and yet a 5 minutes delay in the earning would cause the stock to crash. These days it seems like the longer we have to wait for the earnings the better.  ;)

We will hold over earnings. The prelude has been very promising and we have (finally!) protected our profit with a decent stop.

I have some time off tonite and i read back in the thread. I saw there were some doubt about the IPO of CECT based on the Dutton report. Right CECT will not be IPO'ed but that is really only a matter of names (IMHO).

Enjoy the weekly chart  :D

Michael, you touted this stock back when it was around 7.50 (and probably longer) and after researching it for myself I had the same enthusiasm.  It wasn't just another stock pick for you, you really believed that this was a monster waiting to break out.  How could a company with this type of growth have a PE of about 6???

I wound up putting 33% of my portfolio into XING and have enjoyed the benefits ever since.  This one trade will keep me a 3SOF member for as long as you guys keep going!  >:D

Thanks!

Interesting news, Philips pulls out of China (in terms of selling mobile handsets) and interestingly CEC will take over the responsibility for manufacturing / selling Philips phones over the next 4 years. http://www.cec.com.cn/cecchannel/english/cecchannel/news/Shownews.asp?id=666

Now, CEC which is a state owned administration entity and has very strong relationships with CECT (as they used to part own with XING) which I assume would take the actual role of manufacturing and selling the phones.

CECT is not mentioned in the release, I am just concluding this is how it would work.

Must we concern about it?            ???


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Services/Communications_Services/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=127937&mid=127937&tof=15&frt=2

Quote from: voova99 on October 14, 2006, 10:17:57 AM
Must we concern about it?            ???


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Services/Communications_Services/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=127937&mid=127937&tof=15&frt=2

Hey Voova,

The Dutton report made it public a few weeks back that CECT IPO was not going to happen. This report just speculates why it hasn't gone ahead and then digs up historic financial issues going back to 2002. It has no facts or quotes directly from XING / CECT (just quoting 'an insider'). My summary is it's just a story with little or no factual data.


Good Trading

P.S. I posted some news items on XING which I have now deleted, they were old and I posted before thoroughly checking dates, apologies if anyone read them as recent news items.

Thank You, Aussie

I'm confused by amount of speculations on XING's Yahoo board ...

But I made my decision to hold into earnings report , last price performance
tells me that XING is under accumulation (not huge but respectable)  ;)

Best,
Vova

Hi Voova,

I agree with Aussie's assesment (even though I still think the CECT IPO will go ahead, but that is another story).

Kevin has an excellent write up concerning the allegations made in the article here: http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentProfessionalsAvalon/stocksxing.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=483&ID_CLast=485&CDir=1

It will be interesting to see how the stock reacts today. The rumour started to circulate during trading on Friday without much effect but we might still see some volatility today.

Right now with XING I am over-riding any short term technical targets as something big is going on and I want to stay 'in the trade' as long as I can. Since I posted my XING is set to Sing on 3rd Oct with the long term charts XING has seen 15 to 20% appreciation, and I believe this is only the 'throat clearing phase' before the real song starts ;)

XING still HAS NOT released its 1H results, but STILL the price keeps going up. Friday saw a concerted effort to push the price down coinciding with scare mongering news release in China regarding CECT finances. It failed to make much downward pressure.

This week lets see if we get any news hitting the wires.

God Trading

Michael

Could you call Rick , and ask him to give a short PR only for 3SOF?
Wating is killing me...


Best,
Vova

OK, so BIG XING stlye sell off took place over the past 2 days. On big volume also. Chart is damaged \ and currently no news out of XING to help any reversal.
Now my stops got dinged yesterday and today so I am out of my stock position, but I am holding  Jan $12.5 calls.

I am sad to be out, but stops are stops.

So we still wait 1H results, Q3 release date and any other 'news' which might be waiting to come out.

I am not re-entering just yet, as I can't see support holding firmly right now. But I am watching closely.

Instead of Rick PR date,

From yahoo MB:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Services/Communications_Services/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=130404&mid=130404&tof=2&frt=2

:o

Michael

I'm sure now that in chinese couple of weeks it's "couple of months"  ;)
Don't call Rick , I'm wating...  :)

Hi Voova,

XING sometimes defines logic. The earning release is delayed, there is a never ending stream of rumors about all kind of troubles the company is in and even the Chinese press seems to run a number of negative articles.

And still the stock shows amazing resilience. It almost didn't touch the resistance at 14 before it bounced off.

Let me just be honest I am normally the first one to blame the short community when great stocks are going through hard times but this time I have a creeping suspicion that something else is going on.

I really don't buy into the cash flow problems but that is not the point. Just the mentioning of this should make the stock drop like a stone. It didn't! We have previously talked about the Hound of Baskervilles but in this case it is not about why the hound didn't bark but rather why nobody paying attention  ::)

For the time being I prefer to rely on the FA I did 1 year ago. The company has till now delivered on every promised they made. If there is a change in the fundamentals we will adjust the trading plan but the chart seems to say that we are still on track despite all the rumours.

Michael

What do you think about Kevin's recent excitement from private MB  ??? :

"Big news! Philips became the first big western brand to totally close down its mobile phone operation and exited from the market today"

I think that Philips is very strong company , may there is serious price erosion in handset market
in China and XING  also in trouble  ??? 


Best,
Vova

Quote from: voova99 on October 23, 2006, 06:52:04 AM
Michael
What do you think about Kevin's recent excitement from private MB  ??? :
"Big news! Philips became the first big western brand to totally close down its mobile phone operation and exited from the market today"
I think that Philips is very strong company , may there is serious price erosion in handset market
in China and XING  also in trouble  ??? 
Best,
Vova

Hey Voova, You know, Philips is a tiny player in the global handset business. Look at it yourself, how many people do you know have a Philips mobile phone? Not many. So the withrawal from the Asian market I think is a positive for XING. XING is winning market share whilst controlling margins, sure there will be margin erosion to come it is a fierce market. Finally CEC used to have an ownership in CECT, so maybe CECT will get contract to build the Philips handsets on behalf of CEC?

Also, I agree Michael's thoughts on XING resiliance. I have started to re-build my XING position in the $14 range since last week. Not full position yet.

Good Trading

fyi:
yahoo quotation:
Chuan CT to New York early next year will be listed on the Stock Exchange
   
[Sohu IT News (text / paste) the evening of October 25. Qiao Xing Universal listed on NASDAQ (XING) in a row there a few days after the plunge in Indonesia. first up.
Sohu IT learned from the news channel, reacting to anti-Qiao Xing Universal's stock rose. Qiao Xing Universal addition to the support of their own performance figures, Another rumor that has been circulating for a long time with the news -- Zhongdiantongxin (CT) about the recent landing in the U.S. stock market.

A well-informed source revealed that CT is very likely the IPO period between the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. and the place of listing is not a piece of the Hong Kong main board a year ago, they are not NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange is very likely.

Earlier this year, it is reported that 10% of the issued shares in the open CT, project finance 150 million U.S. dollars. But some analysts, with the New York Stock Exchange IPO in Pakistan near future. CT issuance of this amount will be far more than 10%, while the amount of the financing will be close to three hundred million dollars.
According to Qiao Xing Universal June 20 to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission's 2005 financial statements. Qiao Xing Universal 2005 net sales reached 356 million U.S. dollars, compared with 42.4% growth in 2004 net profit of 31 million U.S. dollars, 987% increase over 2004. In the recently released "HU Run BIL Billboard" Bang Chan. Qiao Xing Wu Ruilin to as many as 40 million head of the family Wealth BIL Billboard ranked fourth.
Has not been officially confirmed these rumors, the only purpose of conveying the message. Sohu IT does not constitute investment advice and does not represent positions.

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fit.sohu.com%2F20061025%2Fn246005261.shtml&langpair=zh-CN%7Cen&hl=en&ie=UTF8

awesome chart today:


cheers
O.

Whilst there are no direct quotes from XING, this may be the start of positive news period culminating in Q3 release, so lets see:

Below is another source of the news La-onda posted

http://tech.sina.com.cn/t/2006-10-26/01501203890.shtml

Machine translation:

The foreign national is popular CECT to sprint Niu to hand over 所拟 finances 300 million US dollar http://www.sina.com.cn on October 26, 2006 01:50 first finance and economics daily paper Will hand over the motherboard to next year first quarter in Niu to complete IPO Newspaper Reporter Yang Guoqiang sends from Beijing Although has the transnational giant to press on step by step, but the domestically produced handset merchant gradually went out the difficult position. The bright lake opening price name moves in the Jingxi too Yangcheng III issue of selling well Huipu commercial strategy new product to issue passes on the magnanimous life information Recently, a professional disclosed to "First Finance and economics Daily paper" that, the secret is preparing the center electricity correspondence science and technology limited liability company which the overseas goes on the market (next to call "CECT") will complete IPO to next year first quarter in the New York Stock Exchange motherboard, will solicit the capital amount to approach 300 million US dollars, the market value surpasses 1 billion US dollars. The CECT two years ago start to plan the overseas to go on the market, hand over the institute besides Niu also to consider Hong Kong and the American Nasdaq two stock markets, but finally have actually chosen the financing scale and an influence bigger Niu hand over the institute. "CECT regardless of is the turnover or the profit, all has met the requirement which hands over in Niu goes on the market." This public figure expressed. It is reported, CECT will hand over the main body in Niu which will go on the market will be it in BVI (England is the Uygur Beijing archipelago) to register to the shore company lives abroad is popular the mobile communication limited company, the foreign national is popular the migration to have CECT90% stock, other stocks extreme will reach for Tianjin have. CECT as well as a part of 3G research and development service will load to this company in among, but the foreign national will be popular the handset not to be able to bring into line with, because this part of property before this has been popular in the foreign national round the world goes on the market. If hands over in Niu goes on the market successfully, center the electricity correspondence will become in the domestically produced handset brand first to hand over the enterprise in Niu which the motherboard goes on the market, is popular the group according to the foreign national the strategic plan, besides the center electricity correspondence, next year this company also will have to make the 3G research and development the subsidiary company to go on the market in the overseas, in addition already the foreign national which went on the market in Nasdaq is popular round the world (XING.NASDAQ), this handset family will become a domestic handset profession count for much strength, and had the profound influence to the Chinese handset market pattern. According to this professional stated that, CECT chooses US to go on the market is receives its parent company in the very great degree to live abroad is popular the round the world a series of advantages good information the influence. Recently, the foreign national was popular round the world step by step walks in stock market's performance high, its stock price once traced as high as 17 US dollars, day-long 成交额 unexpectedly achieved 30 million US dollars, all have created since July, 2000 new high, the performance extremely have been active. "Therefore does not have the choice to go on the market in Nasdaq, is because the foreign national is popular round the world is Nasdaq goes on the market the company." This public figure stated that, CECT hands over in Niu goes on the market, the effect could better somewhat, "the future foreign national be popular under the flag two companies CECT and the foreign national is popular the entire world, will go on the market in Nasdaq, will hand over in Niu goes on the market, regardless of will be the strategic layout or the financing ability all with goes on the market in Nasdaq must be better than." News provides which according to the professional, center the electricity correspondence first chooses is goes on the market in the Hong Kong motherboard, but considered the Hong Kong stock market the city was full somewhat low rate finally gives up. The investigation and study data indicated that, CECT in August, in the September continuously two months in the entire Chinese handset market place position row 9th, in the domestically produced handset arranges at first 4. According to 2006 CECT market performance calculation, this year, because the domestically produced handset enterprise whole turns for the better, center the electricity correspondence will continue to maintain 30% above the rate of rise, the net profit may amount to above 40 million US dollars. "This kind of scale and the level completely had has handed over the condition in Niu which the motherboard went on the market requests." Telecommunication analyst Han Xiaobing tells reporter. Easy view international analyst Lin Juan to believe, in the recent 12 years, as a result of handset merchant to consumer demand assurance more and more, and is prominent as a result of several emerging handsets merchants performance, causes the research and development gradually to standardize to the domestically produced handset merchant puzzle, this hindrance domestic product handset develops the barrier varies directly more and more slightly. It is reported, after has experienced the large amount loss labor pain, in the association, center the electricity correspondence, multi- Pu reaches and so on the emerging merchant under the impetus, including the wave guide, TCL and handset merchant and so on Xia Xin all already started the profit. But after if center the electricity corresponds successful financing, inevitably will be able to strengthen the electricity correspondence research and development ability, will occupy the advantageous competition position.

Quote from: AussieTrader on October 23, 2006, 08:30:40 AM

Also, I agree Michael's thoughts on XING resiliance. I have started to re-build my XING position in the $14 range since last week. Not full position yet.

Quote

Haven't got my full position yet, and am more weighted to calls (Dec / Jan mixture of in and out the money positions). Maybe I won't get the chance to add at the right price, which would be nice anyway ;)
Hope you still in there Voova.
Good Trading

XING is probably one of the most manipulated stocks in the market. Manipulated both by insiders and the market.

So when so-called news is out (the CECT IPO was never off as said before!) it is normally more important to understand the context than the actual news. Why did management hint to Dutton that the CECT IPO was off and why do they now leak that it is on? Is this connected with the other rumors around cash flow problems etc.? And could that be why the stock behaved so nicely during the hailstorm of bad news?

Many questions that probably never will be answered.

The manipulation of the stock and the very low information level in general makes it very difficult to trade the stock from both a technical and fundamental point of view.

We have based our trading plan on the official information released by the company and we are sticking to the plan unless there are confirmed changes in the company's fundamentals.

Congrats to all of you profiting off this baby, I got out too soon  :'(

It will just be a blip on the upward march of XING if it even shows up at all, but it will be interesting to see if Jim Cramer recommending Cisco over it in his new "Sudden Death" will have any impact at all.  Usually it takes him doing a whole tirade in a lightning round to bring a stock down for a day or two.

Anyway, its clear he doesnt follow the chart lol.

Aussie

Thank You for your informative answers  .
I'm in yet  ???  ::)

Like  Michael said - There are more questions than answers,
but I think risk/reward ratio is low  8)

XING update:
Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Announces Key Operating Data for the Second Quarter 2006; Planned Acquisition of Remaining 20% Equity Interest of Qiao Xing Mobile Communication, and Positive Sales Momentum for the Week-long National Day Holidays in China
Tuesday October 31, 8:30 am ET

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, Oct. 31 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/--Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today Announces Key Operating Data for the Second Quarter 2006, Planned Acquisition of Remaining 20% Equity Interest of Qiao Xing Mobile Communication, and Positive Sales Momentum for the Week-long National Day Holidays in China.

Operating Data

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone's sales and operating income increased 15.6% and 518% respectively in the second quarter versus the first quarter of 2006. The significant increase in operating income is primarily due to the lack of stock based compensation in the second quarter. Stripping out stock option grants, operating income increased 38% primarily on improved gross profit margins.

                                                                   1Q         2Q
All figures in millions of US dollars                      2006     2006
Net sales                                                      84.1       97.3
Cost of goods sold                                         70.8       78.8
Gross profit                                                   13.3       18.5
Operating expenses other than share-based
compensation                                                -3.9       -5.5
Share-based compensation                               -7.3         --
Income from operations                                    2.1      13.0
Acquisition

In addition to the increase in operating performance, Qiao Xing Universal Telephone herein announces an acquisition from the minority shareholder the remaining 20% equity interest of Qiao Xing Mobile Communication, or QXMC, a British Virgin Islands company that holds a 93.4% interest in the Sino-foreign joint venture CEC Telecom, or CECT, for $43mn USD, to be paid partly in cash and partly in shares of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone. The valuation of QXMC was based on the implied valuations from the convertible debenture that was completed in June of this year. The acquisition is expected to be finalized no later than the end of December 2006, and the closing remains subject to customary closing conditions. Qiao Xing Universal Telephone arrived at the decision to make this acquisition based on the historical operating performance of CECT, and also the strategic consideration of converting QXMC into a 100% subsidiary to streamline the ownership structure of CECT.

Positive Momentum

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone would like to respond to reports circulated in the Chinese press surrounding performance leading up to the October 1 Chinese National Day by confirming that, up to October 1, CECT has received orders from distributors for about USD85mn for its recently-launched ''A1000'' and ''IP1000'' series of mobile phones.
According to a recent Sino Report, CECT's market share is tenth among all mobile phone brands and fourth among local brands in China. Despite relatively higher selling prices than most local brands, Qiao Xing Universal Telephone believes that this upward momentum of market share ranking is driven in part by the flexibility to offer differentiated products.

Other Updates

A financing solution reached with DKR Management via an issuance of $24mn USD in stock and 26mn USD in a convertible provided Funds for the acquisition of the 20% minority interest in QXMC. Terms were finalized on September 18th, and consist of 2 million shares placed at $12 and a CB with a conversion price of $14.30.

In accordance with Nasdaq listing rules, a consolidated income statement for the first half of 2006 and an interim balance sheet shall be filed by December 31, 2006.

just fyi, feedback is appreciated! Consolidation phase IMO
Another detailed report on the coming QXMC IPO:

http://www.cet.com.cn/20061101/BAIXING/200611011.htm

Time: before 2007/02
Underwriter: Goldman & others
Exchange: NYSE (for amount of capitalization and higer valuation)
Also, the report mentioned CECT's continuous momentum of sales growth.

Translated:
Three rounds of financing road map sprint Niujiaosuo declassified CT overseas listing

One of our reporters Ming
Qiao Xing subsidiaries under Zhongdiantongxin (CT), the United States listed rumors flirting with reporters depth gradually clear.

China's economy Times reporter access to the latest information. CT implementation of the IPO will not be later than next February. CT in this IPO, 20% of the equity sale may be. its financing will amount to over 250 million dollars.

Not long ago, the newly released "2006 HU Run IT rich list". Qiao Xing chairman Wu Ruilin the illustrious ranks fourth in the industry in his capacity as much attention.

While most brides also has been hiding out behind the scenes, but he has already been in the industry "phone magnate" reputation Qiao Xing Universal by the founders in early February 17, 1999 listing on NASDAQ in the United States. the first domestic private enterprises listed in the United States first. Qiao Xing Universal just released by the second quarter performance in 2006, Qiao Xing Universal operating profits of 12.9 million dollars. an increase of 136%. Earlier in the June 20, Qiaoxing Universal submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in 2005 Caibaoxianshi. Qiao Xing Universal 2005 net sales of 356 million U.S. dollars, compared with 42.4% growth in 2004 net profit of 31 million U.S. dollars, 987% increase over 2004. Consequently, the dollar rose to the highest price, Wall Street analysts "strongly recommends buying. HU Run in BIL Bang Bang Chan, Wu Ruilin name wealth has increased to 1.7 billion yuan this year from last year's four billion yuan.

Qiao Xing Universal inspired and driven by, CT listing is already in full swing.

"Selected Niujiaosuo called "Qiao Xing Mobile"
An industry insider said of the Chinese economy Times, CT is likely to be started within this year and to complete the listing process. the location of their choice and will not be listed in Hong Kong early last year, rumors outside the Main Board and will choose the U.S. stock market.

On CT Why abandon the Main Board listing as their destination, the industry said, As previously panda cell phone, cell phone manufacturers to choose a number of Mainland Yulong Main Board listing in Hong Kong, the share price has been in doldrums. Following long-term stock price hovering in a few Hong Kong dollars, but not the amount of financing. Therefore, CT should not choose Hong Kong as a main board listing goals. In addition, Qiao Xing Universal has been listed on Nasdaq, CT distribution to the Hong Kong-listed, there are many legal issues. listed in the United States were much more smoothly.

As for what is to choose the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, the industry said, CT may be the ultimate place of listing the New York Stock Exchange, but not the Nasdaq. Qiao Xing Universal because its parent company has been listed on Nasdaq, CT again Adenauer city has little significance.

Chinese Economic Times reporters learned through investigation. Qiao Xing Universal under which there are two registered in the British Virgin Islands (BVI), the off-shore companies (Shell). were Qiao Xing Mobile (holding 80%) and Hong Kong (20% shareholding), a total of 100%. There is a separate office building in Hong Kong. According to the industry that the current CT Niujiaosuo listing of the names of the companies in the United States will very likely not Zhongdiantongxin. CT is not, but BVI company, "Qiao Xing Mobile." In principle it is not directly in a company registered in the international capital markets. In other words, the main companies listed on the capital market in the United States must be registered in the BVI, Cayman and other offshore companies.

So, if, in future, should not be the main Niujiaosuo listed Zhongdiantongxin or CT. It should be a BVI company, "Qiao Xing Mobile."
According to another report, CT shares held by Qiao Xing Mobile and Tianjin TEDA. more than 90% of the shares of the former, the latter holding the others.
Three rounds of financing, underwriting merchants set Goldman Sachs

Qiao Xing urge CT listed from the first half of this year Qiao Xing Universal evident in three rounds of financing.

April 28, After twice previously issued to overseas investors about 20 million U.S. dollars of convertible bonds, Qiao Xing Universal with two foreign strategic investors had signed a binding agreement, The latter sold to the value of 40 million U.S. dollars of convertible bonds.
According to the agreement, which could be converted to bondholders in the three years after the completion of the transaction. These will be based on its trading privileges Qiao Xing Universal convertible bonds into ordinary shares. These bonds can be converted into the main CT Qiao Xing Mobile offshore companies and the listing of ordinary shares after the IPO. Qiao Xing Mobile can price their shares prices seven times the 2005 EPS calculation.

Public records indicate that as early as February 2003. Qiao Xing Universal's subsidiaries under Qiaoxing Mobile CECT65% a cost of 316 million yuan to purchase the shares. October 2005. Qiao Xing Universal Telecom holding 90% of the subsidiary Qiao Xing CECT25% also spend 80 million yuan to purchase the shares, The transfer of shares will be registered in the BVI to the Qiaoxing Mobile so that the latter holding 90% in CT. Thus, the controlling shareholder of Qiao Xing Qiao Xing Universal Mobile CT of the few effective shareholding reached 72%. According to calculation, even in the implementation of the IPO CT, Qiao Xing Universal's shareholdings in several CT will remain above 50%.
Chinese Economic Times in an interview also learned that the lead underwriters of the IPO has selected CT existing listing. Qiao Xing Universal CT affiliated companies including the lead underwriters Goldman Sachs IPO year.

Strengthen the R & D focus difference competition

Earlier this year, Wu Ruilin CT in the listing, he said, The funds will mainly be spent on the research and development of the financial and construction channels. He also said that through the acquisition of CT does not preclude research and development institutions to increase research and development efforts. Before the industry was also a rumor that CT has a lock on the development of foreign enterprises. But industry speculation that the IPO journey starts with CT. Even CT relevant merger plan, estimated to wait until after the listing can be activated. Public records indicate that the current CT in Huizhou factory has an annual output of 500 million cell phones. Three research centers are located in Beijing, Shenzhen and Huizhou, which will be responsible for high-end cell phones. research and development of 3G mobile phones and smartphones. CT was one of the earliest to conduct our own research and development of enterprises. China now has the largest research and development team in the domestic mobile phone manufacturers.
According to another report, the current Zhongdiantongxin 3G terminal products in more than 300 R & D personnel. also concentrated in Beijing, Huizhou and Shenzhen R & D base is mainly in research and development of GSM mobile phone technologies. 50 Zhongdiantongxin current balance of the annual introduction of new mobile phones, and the speed of product development and launch international mobile phone giants Nokia, Motorola has been the same.CT will continue to expand cell phone use this function in a big fuss about. If the introduction of this extraordinary staging in May 1000 hours A1000 phone industry look, Wang Philips waiting to break the record of 850 hours.
Found in the first three quarters of the domestic mobile phone market data show that in September Legend, Zhongdiantongxin (CT) Brand made significant progress, the rapid growth in sales, Zhongdiantongxin (CT) to squeeze four former domestic brands, the highest of all mobile phone brand nine. there are signs of rising and rankings. Sources indicate that CT Mobile and China Unicom will be to further strengthen and expand the market share of customized business cooperation. CCID analysis that the future of time, the Chinese mobile phone market growth rate gradually slowed down. Competition from brands, frontline companies (mainly referring to the first half of the 10 firms) brand outside the living space will be gradually reduced, At present, the domestic market will be substantially reduced the number of cell phone manufacturers. If CT ultimately successful listing, Niujiaosuo the landing will be the first in China's domestic mobile phone manufacturers. This will also haze of China's mobile phone market from the present to give a strong boost to the economy.

I actually can not understand why people are so enthuism to the CECT IPO. is it a kind of dilution? the current stock price of XING included the earning from CECT. once CECT IPO, the total number of shares increased. BTW, the CECT only ranked 10th or 9th in the cell phone market of China and the price for the CECT phone is higher than other domestic phone manufactuers. I really can not see the organic growth in the future people expected. any comments?

Quote from: winner919 on November 01, 2006, 04:17:48 PM
I actually can not understand why people are so enthuism to the CECT IPO. is it a kind of dilution? the current stock price of XING included the earning from CECT. once CECT IPO, the total number of shares increased. BTW, the CECT only ranked 10th or 9th in the cell phone market of China and the price for the CECT phone is higher than other domestic phone manufactuers. I really can not see the organic growth in the future people expected. any comments?

Hey Winner, The benefit to XING stock can be best explained from a pure valuation perspective. If CECT goes to IPO and at IPO it is valued for example at $1B and XING has 75% ownership of CECT (if they were to sell 25% of the shares for the IPO and retain 75% ownership) then XING valuation itself would have to align upwards to take into account this ownership valuation e.g. 75% of $1B = $750M therefor XING fair value shoud be at least $750M (it's CECT ownership valuation) and that does not include all the other assets and divisions of XING e.g. QXMC etc. So bottom line is it will force upwards the value of XING shares (in theory!)

Sales growth wise, XING is gaining market share and maintains healthy margins in a highly competitive price oriented market. If they are able to demonstrate high quality and better features (relative to competition) for a higher price and consumers accept that, then that is a winning combination for me as a stockholder.

So, now it looks like not only will CECT go IPO, but QXMC also. Again it is not released news by XING, but there seems so much press coverage in China that the weight of evidence is becoming compelling. Combine that with the acquisition of the remaining 20% of QXMC ownership (from the minority interest party) which means XING owns 100% of QXMC and now 93.4% of CECT. My reading of that transaction is that it is part of the process of gaining full and clear ownership prior to the IPO(s).

Good Trading

Aussie:

Thank You very much for your explaination. it makes sense for me to the valuation of CECT. but the voluation of XING should depend on their revenue and potential net income. this is not spin off but issue more shares. let us assume the valuation of XING which includes CECT and QMXC now is 400M as the stock of XING reflected, if they go to CECT IPO, the valuation of CECT should be $300 M and QMXC is $100M. let us say the IPO price of CECT is $10 and they can issue 30m shares for CECT. The total shares doubled, which means the shareholder of XING can only get half of the net income. I am doubt about the balance sheet of XING. may be they have too much debt and they need money. be careful with chinese stocks. may be CECT IPO just rumor but not reality.

One more thing from their IR is that they spend 43 m for 20% QXMC, which means they vulue QXMC at 215 m. QXMC own 94% CECT, which mean the valuation of CECT is about 200M. Considering they have 25 m shares. the share price of XING should be less than $9. may be $12 will be a good support.

Good luck

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 02, 2006, 08:59:15 AM

Quote from: winner919 on November 01, 2006, 04:17:48 PM

Hey Winner, The benefit to XING stock can be best explained from a pure valuation perspective. If CECT goes to IPO and at IPO it is valued for example at $1B and XING has 75% ownership of CECT (if they were to sell 25% of the shares for the IPO and retain 75% ownership) then XING valuation itself would have to align upwards to take into account this ownership valuation e.g. 75% of $1B = $750M therefor XING fair value shoud be at least $750M (it's CECT ownership valuation) and that does not include all the other assets and divisions of XING e.g. QXMC etc. So bottom line is it will force upwards the value of XING shares (in theory!)

Aussie

I just don't understand how do you get $1B for CECT  ???

Best,
Vova

Hey Voova, I just used $1b as an example. I could have used $500M or $100M. It was just a number to show how the valuation could benefit XING.

Dutton Associates Update:

Hi

I think that end of the year will be very interesting for us.
From Kevin "Avalon MB" :

From: Finance_Master Sent: 11/3/2006 9:44 PM
My estimates:

3Q: revenue 140M ~ 150M. Opt income: 18M ~ 22M
4Q: revenue: 240M ~ 280M. Opt income: 27M ~ 33M

:o  :o  :o



Best,
Vova

 :o

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001062592%2D06%2D000042%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2006%5C11%5C13%5C&CoName=QIAO+XING+UNIVERSAL+TELEPHONE+INC&FormType=SC+13G&RcvdDate=11%2F13%2F2006&pdf=

:o

Thanks Voova,

That is a big development. Bear Stearns has an 11.25% stake in XING as of Q3 2.667M shares.

One can only speculate on why e.g.

May be they are as a result of the Chinese QDII investment program (BS participates in that)
May be they are positioned as a result of the potential IPO and their involvement there
May be they are starting a leveraged buyout or attempting to get seats on the board
May be they are just seeing the upside potential over the next few years as part of their overall China strategy

Whatever, it is a huge positive for the stock price over the coming weeks / months.

I am sitting on this one long term as well.  Anyone else here?

Aussie

Have you the thougts on that :

" XING paid $43m cash + stocks for 20% CECT. That means CECT worths no more than $215m in my math. Can someone explain to me why CECT will worth 5 times more when it goes IPO next year? "


Best,
Vova

Quote from: voova99 on November 17, 2006, 09:08:38 AM
Aussie

Have you the thougts on that :

" XING paid $43m cash + stocks for 20% CECT. That means CECT worths no more than $215m in my math. Can someone explain to me why CECT will worth 5 times more when it goes IPO next year? "


Best,
Vova

Market will value the IPO based on future earnings potential. What XING paid bears no real relation to what the potential value is when or if it goes IPO. Think about it, why would XING pay $43M for 20%? Because they know the 'market value' will be substantially higher. How high? Don't know, that is up to the market, look at what happened to EFUT.

Nice touch on ascending support line for XING today at $14. If history repeats (usually in the stock market it does) then $20 target is in play.

Good Trading

Quote from: voova99 on November 17, 2006, 09:08:38 AM
Can someone explain to me why CECT will worth 5 times more when it goes IPO next year? "

Hi Voova

Sorry to rephrase you question:

Can someone explain to me how XING can buy CECT at a PE around 5?

We are after all talking about the fastest local producer of handsets in the world largest market.

My, at this point, very dear friend Mr. Wu has done a lot of favors to friends over the years and I think it was time to pay back after a little arm wrestling.

Was it a good deal for XING. You bet it was and this has still not been reflected in the stock price since the deal was announced.

I am not sure if CECT's IPO will be valued at 1 billion but I am absolutely sure that it will be valued higher than XING's present market cap of 335 million USD and that is good enough for me.

I think the problem is that too many investors are using US logic when trying to understand XING and from what I have seen until now that is not really working  ;)

Good  points, Michael  ;) Thank You

Aussie, your ascending line is perfect for me  ;D

Quote from: brandyjoco on November 16, 2006, 11:56:16 AM
I am sitting on this one long term as well.  Anyone else here?

Hey Brandy and other members. I haven't posted in this XING file for a while and apologise for that. Yes I am still holding XING and have been accumulating over the past few sessions. Full disclosure: I have long equities and call option positions, XING represents my biggest portfolio holding. Hmmmmm WHY?

Well, I am still very much of the opinion that XING price will correct upwards over the coming weeks. There has been significant developments since I last posted here 1) IPO of CECT and QXMC would seem to becoming more likley in 2007, even perhaps with CECT in Q1. 2) Bear Stearns have taken an 11% stake in XING (disclosure of their Q3 holdings). 3) Q3 results would appear to be very positive (not a fact, but just based on indicators from that market).

The Bear Stearns investment alone is a HUGe indicator of something big brewing.

Anyways, XING has pulled back to strong support around $14, my expectation is that another assault on the $17 area highs is just round the corner

Good Trading

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 17, 2006, 12:32:03 PM
Nice touch on ascending support line for XING today at $14. If history repeats (usually in the stock market it does) then $20 target is in play.

Good Trading

Nice...back in

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 23, 2006, 02:16:00 AM
Anyways, XING has pulled back to strong support around $14, my expectation is that another assault on the $17 area highs is just round the corner

Aussie,

Nice work.  Applause.

The 13.88 lows of this Descending Triangle (pattern in red) have been holding up real well.  This week's low was 13.94.

Descending Triangles often morph into Bullish Falling Wedges (dotted red line, marked T1), or Bull Flags/Bull Channels (dotted red line, marked T2).  I thought that we might get one of those, then an upside breakout, but it isn't looking that way now.

Friday was a Bullish Engulfing Pattern that engulfed the prior NINE DAYS' "real bodies" on improving volume, and it was only a half session of trading.   That looks good.

It would look even better if we see 14.45 (pattern breakout) and 14.57 (above the recent high) get printed on Monday. 

If XING pulls back a little from Friday's nice white candle, the slope of the descending line is 0.05667, so the technical breakout would be:

Tuesday, November 28:  a print above 14.386
Wednesday, November 29: a print above 14.33

A technical breakout, and especially a takeout of 14.56 recent resistance, on some volume, "should" bring in buying interest. 

Yes, touch and go on decent volume. This will be an interesting week.

Agreed, solid support and breakout here we come ;)

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, Nov. 27 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal
Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today provides a preliminary review of the
financial performance of its operations, for the three months ended September
30, 2006 ahead of the release of more detailed financial information including
earnings per share.

The total sales revenue for the three months ended September 30 is estimated to
reach RMB 841.9 million (USD 106.5 million).

Sales revenue from the Mobile phone segment is estimated to reach
RMB 768.3Million (USD97.3 million), driven primarily by the popularity of
the ''CECT'' branded 'A1000' and 'IP1000' Models.  These mobile phones with
ultra- long standby batteries provide about 1,000 hours of standby time and are
not available in any of our competitors' products.  'COSUN' branded
mobile handsets introduced in the second half of 2004, also benefited from
the increasing brand recognition and the expanding distribution network.

Sales revenue for the indoor, or land-line phones is estimated to reach RMB 73.6
(USD 9.3 million) for the three months ended September 30, 2006. With the
standard of living in China on the rise, households are disposed to replace old
land-line phone sets with new ones with value-added functions.

Gross profit of the XING Group is estimated to reach RMB 195.4 (USD 24.7 million
) for the third quarter of 2006, driven primarily by ''CECT'' branded mobile
phone sales.

The operating expenses of the XING Group are expected to be RMB 26.2 million (
USD 3.3 million) in the third quarter of 2006.

Income from operations of the XING Group is expected to reach RMB 169.1 million
(USD 21.4 million) for the three months ended September 30, 2006.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''Great progress in income
from operations has been made in the third quarter of 2006.  This would
contribute towards the attainment of satisfying whole-year financial results."

Well, income is  :o
But huge miss in revenues  ???

Bought XING at 14.60.  Stop: Below 13.88.  Risk: a loss of 4.9%

Quote from: voova99 on November 27, 2006, 09:13:27 AM
Well, income is  :o
But huge miss in revenues  ???

Well it certainly seems like the market is focusing on the revenue. But even though they missed the estimates of one analyst the result and the trend is still quite astounding:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29101;image)

XING has promised us year over year earnings growth of 35% and even with dilution they are over delivering.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29102;image)

We will see were the market takes XING short term. With the strongest quarter still to come they are destined to be trading at a PE in the low teens and that is a bargain for a company with this kind of growth and an IPO in the waiting.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 27, 2006, 10:07:43 AM
Bought XING at 14.60.  Stop: Below 13.88.  Risk: a loss of 4.9%

Sold XING at 13.94.  Loss: 4.5%

My 13.88 stop wasn't hit (the low is 13.90), but today is a complete reversal of Friday's nice white candle, on about 3 times the volume.

This "could be" a Double Bottom basis the 5-Minute chart at 13.90, but this close to the bottom of a Descending Triangle (posted over the weekend) on today's black candle, I don't want to be staring into a gap down in the morning. 

I decided to sell it.

got out with a very small profit..probably not after fees.

Market seems to be getting sour as a whole.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 27, 2006, 03:39:47 PM
today is a complete reversal of Friday's nice white candle, on about 3 times the volume.

Here's a Candlevolume chart, depicting the Volume Reversal of Friday's bullish candle.

Descending Triangles (pattern in red) are a bit suspect.  They lean toward bearishness, because of the "lower highs."  If 13.88 - 13.90 support gets broken here, a target of 10.60 would be IN PLAY.

Math:

High: 17.20

Low: 13.90 (I take the more conservative of the 13.88 and 13.90 lows)

17.20 - 13.90 = 3.30 Points.  13.90 - 3.30 = Target: 10.60

As I mentioned at the weekend, on a break of support, this Descending Triangle could morph into a Bullish Falling Wedge at T1, or a Bull Flag/Bull Channel at T2, in which case, it would end up alright if the top of the pattern gets taken out to the upside.

But, until we see what develops, 10.60 would be IN PLAY on a break of 13.88-13.90 support, so based on yesterday's Volume Reversal, I decided to sell, even though support hadn't broken.

I hope that support holds here, for those of you long.  Good luck!

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 28, 2006, 05:10:30 AM
If 13.88 - 13.90 support gets broken here, a target of 10.60 would be IN PLAY.

That's a technical break of the Descending Triangle, just after the open.  XING quickly scrambled back above 13.88 and currently is BID 13.90...ASK 13.95, so the 10.60 target is ON HOLD.

Below 13.88, the 10.60 target is back IN PLAY.

Oops...XING slid to 13.50 while I was typing. 

tumbeling again  ???

Quote from: Michael on November 27, 2006, 02:56:39 PM

XING has promised us year over year earnings growth of 35% and even with dilution they are over delivering.

As with all things XING it is a few steps back before going forwards. Yes the market is selling the XING news, but as Michael points out XING is still delivering. They guided net sales to be +30% this year and net income to grow 35% per year 2006 to 2010. They are on track for the sales growth and blowing away the income number. With their best historical quarter still to come.

One thing XING lacks right now is a decent delivery of that message to investors (well Bear Stearns know it). THey need some Spin Doctors working their PR's a bit more.

More of the:
XING MAINTAINS 30% sales growth for 2006 with strongest quarter to come
Fantastic Income growth driven by high end handset sales, market penetration and excellent cost management
Blah blah

You get the picture

November 06, 2006]     

CECT to Offer Shares on New York Stock Exchange

(SinoCast China IT Week Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) BEIJING, November 06, SinoCast -- CEC Telecom Co., Ltd.

(CECT for short) is about to debut initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange to raise as much as USD 300 million in the first quarter of next year, and by then, its market value will exceed USD 1 billion, according to sources close the leading mobile phone maker in China.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/11/06/2049058.htm

full article:
CECT to Offer Shares on New York Stock Exchange

(SinoCast China IT Week Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) BEIJING, November 06, SinoCast -- CEC Telecom Co., Ltd.

(CECT for short) is about to debut initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange to raise as much as USD 300 million in the first quarter of next year, and by then, its market value will exceed USD 1 billion, according to sources close the leading mobile phone maker in China.

CECT started brewing overseas listing two years ago. At the very beginning, it had eyes for the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and NASDAQ Stock Market but eventually selected the New York Stock Exchange which could render more proceeds. CECT is, no matters in turnover or profit, provided with conditions of going public on the New York Stock Exchange, remarked insiders.

The main body of CECT to be listed will be the BVI (British Virgin Islands) offshore company Qiaoxing Mobile Communications Co., Ltd., which takes a 90% stake in CECT. The rest stake is in the hands of Tianjin Teda. CECT and a part of 3G R&D business will be covered in the company. But Qiaoxing mobile phone will be an exception since the business has been included in Qiaoxing Universal Telephone.

If making a success in the move, CECT will become the first Chinese mobile phone maker going public on the main board of New York Stock Exchange. Apart from CECT, Qiaoxing Group also plans to list another subsidiary engaged in 3G research and development in overseas markets. Along with Qiaoxing Universal Telephone (NASDAQ: XING), the group will become an important force in the Chinese mobile phone industry and possibly reshuffle the current competition pattern of the market.

Insiders pointed out that CECT's decision to launch IPO on the New York Stock Exchange is buoyed up by a series of goods news concerning its parent company Qiaoxing Universal Telephone.

Recently, Qiaoxing Universal Telephone performed rather well on the stock market, and its share price once soared to USD 17, with the daily turnover being as high as USD 30 million, a new record high since July 2000.

"The reason why CECT does not choose the NASDAQ Stock Market is because that Qiaoxing Universal Telephone has been listed there," noted an insider, "Going public on both the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market may bring the group stronger financing capability." CECT first decided to offer shares on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, but with a view to the low price/earning ratio there, it eventually gave up the plan, according to the insider.

Statistics show that CECT had been ranked number 9 and number 4 in the whole Chinese mobile phone market and among Chinese domestic makers respectively for two consecutive months of August and September. In the light of the outstanding performance, CECT will continue to maintain the 30% growth this year, and its net profit is expected to hit USD 40 million.

"The excellent achievement makes CECT qualified to debut IPO on the New York Stock Exchange," said Han Xiaobing, a telecom analyst.

Lin Yuan, an analyst with Analysys International, said that since mobile phone makers have known the real need of consumers much better in the recent two years, research and development is no longer a problem obstructing their development.

Under the drive of fledging ones such as Lenovo, CECT, and Dopod, the once leading mobile phone manufacturers start to see profit again, including Bird, TCL, and Amoi. The successful public offering of CECT will further push forward the Chinese mobile phone industry for sure.

Those CECT listing articles are a month old and public domain. Also are not from XING management, but journalist so just more of the same speculation (with probably some help behind the scenes from friendly un-named XING insiders ;)
Is there a reason for posting them now?

I don't understand this lack transparency from the company!

Hi,
just again the latest analyst report from end of November,
we are coming near to the 3SoF stop  ::)
cheers
Ò.

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone "buy"

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 3:46:21 AM ET
JM Dutton & Associates

NEW YORK, November 29 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JM Dutton reiterate their "buy" rating on Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc (ticker: XING). The 12-month target price is set to $17.44.

In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company has reported its preliminary 3Q sales short of the estimates. Qiao Xing Universal Telephone has posted its income from operations as well as gross profits for the quarter ahead of the estimates. The company is expected to post robust 4Q results, and is likely to generate nearly one-third of its annual sales during the quarter, JM Dutton adds.

This stock makes me want to bang my head against the wall.  :-\

is XING "officially" stopped out?

With a bleeding heart we were stopped out today. That is why we have a stop  ;)

XING brook several important resistance levels today so even though there fundamentally is no change it seems that the market didn't like this news:

QuoteDOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc. (XING) on Tuesday registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to allow for the sale of up to 4.04 million shares of common stock from time to time by selling shareholders.

DKR SoundShore Oasis Holding Fund Ltd., Cedar DKR Holding Fund Ltd., Worldwide Gateway Co. Ltd. and OTA LLC were listed in the SEC filing as the selling holders.

The company said the shares offered will be issued to the selling holders upon conversion of their outstanding convertible notes and upon exercise of their outstanding warrants.

Qiao Xing Universal said the holders will receive all of the net proceeds from the sale of the shares, but the company may receive up to $7.8 million from the exercise of warrants.

No underwriters were listed in Tuesday's SEC filing.

Qiao Xing Universal, based in China, makes and distributes telecommunications products. Its shares closed Monday at $13.14 each.

It is always concerning when large shareholders are selling shares. Do they know more than we do? In this case they are converting warrants and are announcing that they might sell the resulting shares, which is only a fraction of the shares they are holding.

So there is no dilution but some shareholders that might lock in a portion of the profit from a very profitable investment.

3SOF has done the same (except that we had to sell our total holding). This has been an excellent trade. I still think there is a lot of money to be made on XING but: plan the trade; trade the plan.

Now that doesn't mean that you can't plan another trade so stay posted  >:D

Quote from: Michael on December 12, 2006, 06:44:25 PM
With a bleeding heart we were stopped out today. That is why we have a stop  ;)

Michael,

Very nice gain on XING.  Good job! Applause.

Quote
Now that doesn't mean that you can't plan another trade so stay posted  >:D

The break of the Descending Triangle on November 28 put a target of 10.60 IN PLAY. 

The trendline from the Symmetrical Triangle (Blue #1 and #3) comes in today at 10.73.   It drops a little each day.

The 200DMA currently is 11.06.

Given yesterday's break on fairly heavy volume, which was about as heavy as it was on the break of the Descending Triangle, XING looks like it might want to go down in the coming days and test 10.60 - 11.06 for support.

Something to watch.  Good luck!

thanks Michael & MelfElf  8) 8)

I am counting down the days before our move to Singapore
cheers
Oliver

Thank You , Michael for excellent pick!

But I have the feeling that 3SOF sold at very low price..
In case of XING FA much more important than TA , IMHO  ;)


Best,
Vova

Monday 18th Dec would be a logical day to release those promised Q3 financials including EPS (promised to release in Dec).

Though not too much with XING is logical!!

Aussie

Keep your fingers crossed  ;)
I'm with You

FRiday 22nd it is then:

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, Dec. 22 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal
Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) releases today its Un-audited Income Statement
for the Three Months Ended September 30, Un-audited Balance Sheet as at June 30,
2006 and Income Statement for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2006, and provides
an update on the acquisition of the remaining 20% equity in Qiao Xing Mobile
Communication Co., Ltd.


Un-audited Income Statement for the Three Months Ended September 30


For the third quarter of 2006, XING's sales revenue, income from operations and
net income all increased significantly to reach USD107.7 Million, USD21.0
Million and USD13.2 Million respectively. The significant growth was primarily
driven by the popularity of the "CECT" branded 'A1000' and 'IP1000' Models and
the increasing brand recognition and the expanding distribution network of its
'COSUN' branded mobile phones business. The Basic earnings per common share
after extraordinary gain for the third quarter was USD56 cents. The Un-audited
Income Statement for the Three Months Ended September 30 can be found in
Appendix I below


Un-audited Balance Sheet as at June 30, 2006 and Income Statement for the Six
Months Ended June 30, 2006


For the six months ended June 30, 2006, the company recorded USD177.5 million,
USD15.4million and USD12.5 million for its Net sales, Income from operations and
net income before option charge respectively.

In the first half of 2006, the Company granted to certain employees and
an external consultant stock options to purchase all the 2,000,000 shares
of common stock authorized and reserved for issuance under the Stock
Compensation Plan set up in 2005.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, "The granting of stock options, though
representing an expense in the income statement and having a dilutive effect on
earnings, has the advantage of not involving any outflow of cash. In fact, for
some senior employees, the lion's share of their total remuneration package is
in stock options. The share-based compensation recorded for 2006 H1 related to
the 2005 Plan, and was for services rendered over a long period of time.

"There are many different approaches to the treatment of options. 
The Black-Scholes Model has been used for the income statement for the six
months ended June 30, 2006 of XING presented in this press release.  RMB 58.4
million (USD 7.3 million) of share-based compensation expenses has been recorded
as a result.

"However, as all the options to purchase 2,000,000 shares were exercised within
a very short period of time (less than two months) of their grant, a case can be
made for using the intrinsic value method for compensation cost measurement. 
Intrinsic value is the excess of the market price of the underlying stock over
the exercise price of a related stock option. "Using the Black-Scholes Model,
the net income was $5.2 million.  Using the intrinsic value approach, the net
income would have been $ 12.5 million instead.  No matter which approach to use,
it has no impact on the cash flow situation of the company."

For nine months ended September 30, 2006, the company recorded net sales of
US$285.2 million and income from operation of US$36.3 million.  Net income and
basic earnings per share were US$18.4 million and USD 80 cents respectively
using the Black-Scholes Model.  If the intrinsic value method had been used,
they respectively would have been US$25.7 million and USD1.13 instead.

The un-audited consolidated balance sheet as at June 30, 2006 and the
un- audited consolidated income statement for the six months ended June 30, 2006
can be found in Appendix II below


Other Event

In November, the Company completed the acquisition from the minority shareholder
of the remaining 20% equity in Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co., Ltd, an
investment holding company that owns 93.4% of the equity interests in the mobile
phone handset maker CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT). As a result, Qiao Xing
Universal's effective shareholding in CECT has increased from 74.7% to 93.4%.

On a pro forma basis assuming that the transaction had taken place on January 1,
2006, it would increase the net income of the company for the nine months ended
September 30, 2006 to USD 24.8 million using the Black-Scholes Model for the
measurement of stock-based compensation cost.  If the intrinsic value method had
been used, it would have been USD 32.1 million instead.

    Appendix I

             QIAO XING UNIVERSAL TELEPHONE, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                     CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
                                AND NET INCOME
                FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2006


                                                            2006 Q3
                                                     Rmb'000       US$'000
                                                  (Un-audited)   (Un-audited)

    Net sales                                        851,236        107,697
    Cost of goods sold                              (659,771)       (83,473)

      Gross profit                                   191,465         24,224

    Operating expenses:
    Selling expenses                                  (8,826)        (1,117)
    General, administrative and R&D expenses         (14,465)        (1,830)
    Amortization of acquired intangible assets        (2,405)          (304)

      Income from operations                         165,769         20,973

    Interest expense, net                            (12,880)        (1,630)
    Exchange gain, net                                 4,425            560
    Amortization of discount on bonds                 (9,489)        (1,201)
    Other expenses, net                                 (249)           (32)

      Income before income tax                       147,576         18,671

    Provision for income tax                         (23,804)        (3,012)

      Income before minority interests               123,771         15,659

    Minority interests                               (34,219)        (4,329)

      Net income before extraordinary item            89,552         11,330

    Extraordinary item - gain on acquisition
    of additional equity interest in a subsidiary     14,398          1,822

    Net income                                       103,950         13,152


    Basic earnings per common share
      Before extraordinary gain                          Rmb           US$
                                                        3.74          0.48
      Extraordinary gain                                 Rmb           US$
                                                        0.61          0.08
      After extraordinary gain                           Rmb           US$
                                                        4.35          0.56

    Diluted earnings per common share
      Before extraordinary gain                          Rmb           US$
                                                        3.39          0.43
      Extraordinary gain                                 Rmb           US$
                                                        0.48          0.06
      After extraordinary gain                           Rmb           US$
                                                        3.87          0.49

    Weighted average number
     of shares outstanding
      - Basic                                     23,707,000     23,707,000
      - Diluted                                   29,726,000     29,726,000


    Appendix II

             QIAO XING UNIVERSAL TELEPHONE, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                          CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
                             AS OF JUNE 30, 2006

                                                          June 30, 2006
                                                    Rmb'000         US$'000
                                                 (Un-audited)     (Un-audited)
    ASSETS

    Current assets:
      Cash and cash equivalents                      579,528         72,493
      Restricted cash                                195,109         24,406
      Accounts and bills receivable                  891,381        111,503
      Inventories                                    211,037         26,398
      Prepayments and other current assets           641,449         80,238
        Total current assets                       2,518,504        315,038

    Property, plant and equipment                    292,372         36,573
    Prepayment for purchase of
     property, plant and equipment                   358,742         44,875
    Other non-current assets                           9,046          1,132
    Investments at cost                                7,634            955
    Goodwill                                          72,088          9,017
    Other acquired intangible assets, net             43,418          5,431
    Discount on bonds                                 57,139          7,147

        Total assets                               3,358,943        420,168


    LIABILITIES, MINORITY INTERESTS AND
     SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY

    Current liabilities:
      Short-term borrowings                          920,880        115,192
      Accounts payable                               212,100         26,531
      Accrued liabilities                             79,637          9,962
      Deposits received, deferred revenues
       and other current liabilities                 114,216         14,287
        Total current liabilities                  1,326,833        165,972

    Shareholders' loans                                7,885            986
    Bonds                                            319,772         40,000

        Total liabilities                          1,654,490        206,958

    Minority interests                               270,001         33,774


    Shareholders' equity:
      Common stock, par value Rmb0.008
       (equivalent of US$0.001); authorized
       50,000,000 shares; outstanding
       and fully paid - 23,651,692
       as of June 30, 2006                               195             24
    Additional paid-in capital                       907,768        113,552
    Retained earnings                                525,267         65,705
    Cumulative translation adjustments                 1,224            153

        Total shareholders' equity                 1,434,454        179,434

        Total liabilities, minority
         interests and shareholders' equity        3,358,945        420,166


             QIAO XING UNIVERSAL TELEPHONE, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                     CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
                                AND NET INCOME
                    FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2006

                                                        2006 First half
                                                    Rmb'000         US$'000
                                                  (Un-audited)   (Un-audited)

    Net sales                                      1,419,316        177,541
    Cost of goods sold                            (1,165,215)      (145,756)

      Gross profit                                   254,101         31,785

    Operating expenses:
    Selling expenses                                 (22,438)        (2,807)
    General and administrative expenses
     including stock-based compensation              (91,241)       (11,413)
    Research and development                         (12,754)        (1,595)
    Amortization of acquired intangible assets        (4,809)          (602)

      Income from operations                         122,859         15,368

    Interest income                                    3,412            427
    Exchange gain, net                                   473             59
    Interest expense                                 (23,890)        (2,988)
    Amortization of discount on bonds                 (1,736)          (217)
    Other income, net                                  2,865            358

      Income before income tax                       103,983         13,007

    Provision for income tax                         (23,329)        (2,918)

      Income before minority interests                80,654         10,089

    Minority interests                               (38,800)        (4,853)

      Net income                                      41,854          5,236


    Earnings per common share
      - Basic                                            Rmb           US$
                                                        1.89           0.24
      - Diluted                                          Rmb           US$
                                                        1.83           0.23


    Weighted average number of shares outstanding
      - Basic                                     22,175,000     22,175,000
      - Diluted                                   22,834,000     22,834,000

I didn't see today action for very very long time  ;)
Well , may be $20 around the corner  :o

XING breaking out of its bottom today

December 22, 2006
Qiao Xing Surges After Earnings Report

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission recently, Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc. (NASDAQ: XING) disclosed 4.04 million shares of common stock would be sold from time to time by a number of selling holders. Bear Stearns Management also announced it would sell a portion of its 1.1 million share stake of the company. However, shares of Qiao Xing today are shrugging off that news after the company reported third quarter revenue of $107.7 million and net income of $13.2 million, or 49 cents per share. The stock is up strongly, higher by $1.86, or 15.71%, to $13.72 on heavy volume of 2.2 million shares, or more than double its daily average volume. Though receiving strong market attention, the company has failed to attract analyst coverage except for Dutton Associates, an issuer-paid equity research firm, which currently has a "buy" rating on the stock and a $17.00 price target. Until that day comes, Qiao Xing will continue to lack prime time visibility in the investment community. At the same time, though, it will allow for the smart money to buy shares relatively cheaply as the stock trades at a very low earnings multiple compared to its industry peers.

http://www.antandsons.com/2006/12/qiao-xing-surges-after-earnings-report.html

http://www.antandsons.com/2006/12/qiao-xing-surges-after-earnings-report.html

Quote from: Tirebldr on December 22, 2006, 11:57:59 AM
XING breaking out of its bottom today

Art,

XING rallied to 13.87, within a penny of the 13.88...13.88...13.90 Decending Traingle resistance.  The chart would have a nice look to it if XING could do something like put in a Right Shoulder here, use the bottom of the Descending Triangle as the neckline of a Bullish Inverse H&S, then take it out to the upside.

fyi:
Dutton Update  8)

for all board members  8)
Dutton Update

cheers
Oliver

as expected Melf Elf  8)

hi aussie,
hope you have enjoyed your holidays 8)
what´s your opinion about XING chart action?


cheers
Oliver

Quote from: la-onda on December 26, 2006, 10:28:26 AM
as expected Melf Elf  8)

Oliver,

Structurally, I would have liked a Right Shoulder here, rather than XING trying to ram its way through the Descending Triangle resistance, beginning at 13.88-13.90, since "former support 'should' now act as resistance,  but I'm glad that it's rallying for you.  ;)

The Descending Triangle target of 10.60 is ON HOLD as long as XING continues to trade above 13.88.

XING currently is BID 13.98...ASK 13.99

Good luck! 

Quote from: la-onda on December 26, 2006, 11:07:45 AM
hi aussie,
hope you have enjoyed your holidays 8)
what´s your opinion about XING chart action?

Yep a good holiday thanks and hope you also enjoyed. When do you head for Singapore?

The only thing I'll say about XING chart is that last time it reversed to touch the 200ma zone in mid June 5 months later it was up 150% This time XING bouncde off the 200ema strongly (interesting how the news catalyst coincided within a day or 2 of the 200ema touch). So I fully expect sometime in Q1 / Q2 XING WILL trade at the $20 level. There will be plenty of volatility on the way I am sure ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 26, 2006, 11:41:36 AM

as expected Melf Elf  8)

Oliver,

Structurally, I would have liked a Right Shoulder here, rather than XING trying to ram its way through the Descending Triangle resistance, beginning at 13.88-13.90,

Oliver,

Tuesday ended on a Bearish Inverted Hangman, after XING's attempt to ram its way higher.

Quote
since "former support 'should' now act as resistance,  but I'm glad that it's rallying for you.  ;)

The rally to 14.22, through TRIPLE resistance, ended in failure, as it "should" have. 

Resistance (from the top down):

#1. 14.25 - the top of the Descending Triangle (Red #1 and Red #3)

#2. 14.05 -  the 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside

#3. 13.88-13.90 the lows of the Descending Triangle

XING became exhausted on the rally, and couldn't sustain any of those levels of resistance, closing weak at 13.79 on the Bearish Inverted Hangman, suggesting further downside.

Yesterday was a "Gap To Crap" opening, and a weaker attempt to ram its way through resistance.  The high only was 14.02 , just a hair above Resistance #2, the 50DMA, which has ticked down to 14.014. 

That was all XING had.  Weakness for the remainder of the session, and the day ended on a Bear Engulfer.  :P

Quote
The Descending Triangle target of 10.60 is ON HOLD as long as XING continues to trade above 13.88.

10.60 is back IN PLAY.

The Descending line (Red #1 and #3), which was at 14.25 on Tuesday, was validated as resistance on the rally to 14.22, so it "should" have some significance if XING can regroup, and take it out to the upside.

Good luck!

Being a newbie to this service, I have been watching the analysis on many stocks but found this one to have an interesting story. I know that 3SOF has gotten out but since it seems to have gone above the 200 ma, would one assume this is a good entry point to ride out for 4-5 months perhaps? I want to learn more about how you analyize these stocks so any information you provide is most helpful. Thanks!

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 28, 2006, 02:25:35 AM
10.60 is back IN PLAY.

The Descending line (Red #1 and #3), which was at 14.25 on Tuesday, was validated as resistance on the rally to 14.22, so it "should" have some significance if XING can regroup, and take it out to the upside.

The Descending line (top of the channel) was resistance again in the early going last week. XING had a DOUBLE re-test failure just below there, and ended  the session on a Bearish Doji Star Hangman.   Friday's session was a continuation to the downside, confirming the bearish implication of that candle in the short-term.

There's a possible Bull Flag (pattern in green) forming here, the low of which is 12.50, identical to the low of the December 22 gap day.  That's short-term support.


The late December/early January lows were: 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05, with an intervening THIRD failed re-test of the bottom of the Descending Triangle, on January 3, that got only to 13.81.

13.05 - 13.07 was key short-term support.  We can see why, when that support broke on Friday, XING sank to gap support, at the intraday low of 12.50.

Resistance:

1. 13.05-13.07 now is short-term resistance.

2. 13.74  - The top of the Channel (the Ascending Triangle morphed to a channel).

3. 13.86  - The 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside.

4. 13.88-13.90  - The bottom of the Descending Triangle

5. 14.22 - The December 26 "jam job" high.

Mucho gracias for the analysis melf elf. :)

Quote from: ygtrdr on January 08, 2007, 09:31:34 AM
Mucho gracias for the analysis melf elf. :)

Ygtrdr,

You're welcome.

If you look back at the Descending Triangle on daily chart, (the lows were 13.88...13.88....13.90), you can see that we've got a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of that larger Descending Triangle on this Hourly Chart since the "jam job" rally high of 14.22.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2007, 06:30:22 AM
Resistance:

1. 13.05-13.07 now is short-term resistance.

The 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 lows on this chart are the bottom of that "fractal" Descending Triangle.  That was support, and we're there now, re-testing it.

So far, "former support is now resistance."  XING is struggling here, trying to make further upside progress.  It needs to close above this first level of resistance,  the bottom of the broken Descending Triangle, in order to turn at least short-term neutral.

[

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2007, 02:40:55 PM
If you look back at the Descending Triangle on daily chart, (the lows were 13.88...13.88....13.90 ), you can see that we've got a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of that larger Descending Triangle on this Hourly Chart since the "jam job" rally high of 14.22.

Resistance:

1. 13.05-13.07 now is short-term resistance.

The 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 lows on this chart are the bottom of that "fractal" Descending Triangle.  That was support, and we're there now, re-testing it.

So far, "former support is now resistance."  XING is struggling here, trying to make further upside progress.  It needs to close above this first level of resistance,  the bottom of the broken Descending Triangle, in order to turn at least short-term neutral.

The "fractal" behavior (repeating patterns) in XING is interesting.

Just as in the daily chart, when XING attempted a "jam job" rally back into the broken Descending Triangle on the December 26 rally to 14.22, in the hourly chart, XING also attempted a "jam job" rally above 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 resistance, on January 9.  The rally went back into the broken Descending Triangle, to 13.25, but failed badly, closing at 12.75.

Another "fractal" (repeating pattern) is this little Bull Flag/Falling Channel (in green).  See how it repeats the formation of the larger Falling Channel, from the 17.20 high, to the 11.54 low?

Interesting, huh?  ???  ::)

Another "fractal" (repeating pattern)...

XING keeps trying to put in TRIPLE and QUADRUPLE bottoms!

We had 13..88....13.88...13.90...lows in the Big Descending Triangle.  That failed.

We had 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 lows in the Little Descending Triangle.  That also failed.

Now we've got 12.50...12.50...12.52...12.52 lows since the December 22 gap up.

The fractal behavior suggests that this attempt at a QUADRUPLE bottom is going to fail, as well. but what if it doesn't fail, but instead, knocks out the top of the Little Bull Flag, then the top of the channel?

Hmm-mm...that would be a "sea change" in the fractal behavior, and it also would be an upside resolution of all of these "nested" fractals (meaning that they're all contained within the BIG red channel).

That would look quite nice.

Meanwhlie...

It sure looks like this QUADRUPLE bottom attempt here at 12.50 is going to fail, and that we're at least going to fill the gap, but that looks so obvious, I'm half-tempted to jump in right here, and stop it out on a break of 12.50, for a loss of less than 1% if I'm stopped out.

I have to think about that one.

MACD is at a back kiss of its signal line, and ready to bang off it and go higher on a rally.

I'll buy XING if I can have it for 12.58.  Stop: 12.48.  Risk: a loss of <1%.

If we break below 12.50, we likely are heading down to the gap, and possibly lower.  I've giving the stop a couple extra pennies, in case of a minor shakeout.

Bought XING at 12.67.  Stop: 12.48.  Risk: a loss of 1½%.

They would let me have it for 12.58, so I gave in and paid a little more  :P

Those demons better not take it down now, and bust my stop!  :D  >:D

Glad to have you on board melf. My stop is in the same area just below the bottom of the gap. Once again I appreciate your analysis.  :)

Quote from: ygtrdr on January 12, 2007, 11:03:59 AM
Glad to have you on board melf. My stop is in the same area just below the bottom of the gap. Once again I appreciate your analysis.  :)

ygtrdr,

We might get the obvious, a break of QUADRUPLE 12.50-12.52 support, especially since that's been the fractal behavior in the Big red channel, but isn't going to cost much in terms of risk to find out, unless XING gaps down on us while we're long it.

I can't see riding it down for a gap fill, or to the 11.54 low, if this breaks.  The 200DMA is at 12.65, too, so that sort of "begs" for a test, if 12.50-12.52 breaks.

On the positive side, the long-term trend is Bullish, even though it doesn't seem so.  :D

I would view it as even more bullish if the gap doesn't get filled, and if XING breaks out above  the Bull Flag, and above the Big red channel.

Bulls are wanting to buy XING on a gap fill.  Shorts aren't worried here.  Breakouts would have both groups in a little "shock and awe," and they'd have to scramble to buy.

At least, that's how I've been feeling, watching this thing, that it could gap up just above the channel on news, and I'd be forced into the stock at a price higher than I wanted to pay.

So, you can see why I'm willing to risk the 1½% loss here.

I hope that we get the "shock and awe" to the upside.  ;D  >:D

The breakout numbers for the Flag and the Channel are at the bottom of this chart.

Good luck to us!   ;)

Melf,

I like the trading idea, and the risk profile.  I'm jumping in with you on this one, just got filled at 12.69, lets hope it starts xinging!!!

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 12, 2007, 11:54:42 AM
Melf,

I like the trading idea, and the risk profile.  I'm jumping in with you on this one, just got filled at 12.69, lets hope it starts xinging!!!

Scotsman,

That 12.72 close wasn't very good xinging, but we'll take it.  At least we weren't stopped out, which we have to expect with that gap yawning below.

But, it's a nice, low-risk, great risk:reward trade, if we don't gap down.  ;)

XING got a pop just now:

Dutton Associates Announces Investment Opinion: Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Raised To Strong Buy Rating In Update Coverage By Dutton Associates
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1)

They have set a price target of $20.24, which is fine by me  ;D
You can read the research report here, I haven't yet, but plan to later today:

http://www.jmdutton.com/research/XING/index.html (http://www.jmdutton.com/research/XING/index.html)

Let's see if XING can close above that descending trendline.  :)

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 12, 2007, 10:06:45 AM
Bought XING at 12.67.  Stop: 12.48.  Risk: a loss of 1½%.

Sold 25% of my XING at 13.40.  Gain: 5.8%.

The top of the Bull Flag came in today at 13.19503.

The top of the Descending Triangle came in today at 13.40314.

Technically, we've got a DOUBLE breakout, if it holds up.  Looks good.  I took some at this target area, where the gain is 4 times the risk that I took, and to defend against a false breakout.

Thanks for that news, Scotsman.   ;)

Quote from: ygtrdr on January 16, 2007, 12:48:33 PM
Let's see if XING can close above that descending trendline.  :)

ygtrdr,

That'd be nice.  :)

We need 13.41.  XING currently is BID 13.42...ASK 13.43.

 >:D >:D >:D

We're back above the BIG Descending Triangle, the bottom of which was 13.88-13.90, so we might pull back at any time, but the rally has been pretty to watch.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 12, 2007, 11:31:06 AM
Bulls are wanting to buy XING on a gap fill.  Shorts aren't worried here.  Breakouts would have both groups in a little "shock and awe," and they'd have to scramble to buy.

Shock and awe...

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 12, 2007, 11:54:42 AM
lets hope it starts xinging!!!

Scotsman,

How was that for xinging?  :D

its xinging and its rocking!!!

Awesome day  ;D

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 16, 2007, 04:47:54 PM
its xinging and its rocking!!!

Awesome day  ;D

Scotsman,

I should say!  :o

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 16, 2007, 12:28:18 PM
XING got a pop just now:

Dutton Associates Announces Investment Opinion: Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Raised To Strong Buy Rating In Update Coverage By Dutton Associates
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1)

They have set a price target of $20.24, which is fine by me  ;D

We all oughta throw in, and send that analyst at Dutton a nice bottle of wine.  :D

Here's what I've got for targets on the DOUBLE breakout:

1. 14.22 - Top of the Bull Flag.  MADE on January 16.

2. 14.89 - Measured Move off the Bull Flag

3. 17.20 - Top of the Channel

4. 19.06 - Measured Move off the Channel breakout

Targets sometimes are exceeded, like the two targets were last autumn, so the Dutton analyst could get his 20.24.

No guarantees on any them, though, except Target #1: 14.22, which MADE already.

Met Elf are you still holding this one? Thanks for all your valuable comments. It nicely complements the fundamental analysis!

Quote from: rspisek on January 17, 2007, 04:29:19 PM
Met Elf are you still holding this one? Thanks for all your valuable comments. It nicely complements the fundamental analysis!

rspisek,

You're welcome.  Yes, I'm 75% long.  If all goes well with this DOUBLE breakout, I'd expect to see us near the top of the channel, at 17.20, by March 13; no later than April 19.

I'd like to see a successful re-test of 13.90-ish here.  That's where the BIG Descending Triangle broke down on November 28, the day after I last sold XING for 13.94.  We had two "jam job" failures to get through that level, prior to Tuesday's breakout, so it would look very nice, structurally, if XING would go back there and re-establish it as the support it once was, last autumn.

We got back-to-back bullish signals in the MACD yesterday, so that could attract some addtional technical buying (see next post).

Good luck!

MACD chart.

Not much to add on the TA front with XING, I'll leave that to you for now Melf, other than I agree, if XING can hold aove 13.88, it would feel pretty bullish to me.  We have a nice entry on this trade, and unless something goes really sour, it looks like we should make a solid gain here, just have to keep our wits about us!!

By the way, that Dutton Associates report was very encouraging, and despite the fact it is public domain, it is well worth a read if you haven't.  Makes me  think XING should have a very strong 2007

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 07:38:37 AM
Here's what I've got for targets on the DOUBLE breakout:

1. 14.22 - Top of the Bull Flag.  MADE on January 16.

2. 14.89 - Measured Move off the Bull Flag  MADE on January 18.

3. 17.20 - Top of the Channel

4. 19.06 - Measured Move off the Channel breakout

Target #2: 14.89 just got MADE.

[

I made this 3 minute look on XING a few days ago:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-7754870287879893816&hl=en

Which told me the stock has a forward earnings multiple of about 6 (earnings yield of 16.6%) and extremely strong revenue and profit growth in historical terms.

Yesterday the stock rose 6% on the face of a bloody market, so I don't need more  evidence to conclude that XING is going higher.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy 6.66% of capital in XING.

I had a feeling this would soon become a pick for this portfolio! It in fact rose about 6% in yesterday market. I am looking forward to this ride. Taken from the Dutton's report this week: In November last year, the Company completed the acquisition of the remaining 20% equity in Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co. Ltd. and thus raised its effective interest in CECT (its mobile handsets operation) from 74.7% to 93.4%. These positive factors, along with the improvement in margins, had prompted us to significantly raise our EPS forecasts for FY2007 by 16.1% from $2.18 to $2.53.
  :o
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1
I really hope they will improve their reporting as promised.

Hey Melf,

So whats your take on our XINGer then?  Friday's candle looked a bit toppy to me, and I was disappointed that it broke down after such a strong start to the day.  Volume was fairly low throughout the rest of the day though, and only kicked in a bit at the end when it broke down from the intraday desending triangle at 15.05.  Fortunately it managed to pop up at the last minute and closed bang on there, at 15.05.  If we do get a pullback Monday, I would like to see it hold 14.50, Tuesday's high, but am thinking about taking some profits here, just so I've got some in the bank.

I put the channel breakout target at about 16.11 (i.e. measured move off the channel breakout - channel width (14.22 - 11.54 = 2.68) => 13.43 + 2.68 = 16.11) which is what I'm aiming for here, and I think it is doable in the short term, but we may get some consolidation first.

Still, XING has been way more explosive than I anticipated, and the weekly chart also suggests it wants to go up more, and break new highs.

Great pick-up David (applause).  I have been watching XING for months now.  I took my first position yesterday at just under $15.26.

I have a feeling that XING is in the beginning of a long run up.  The company appears to be taking transparency seriously, which could bring in some larger investors.  As stated in a January 16, 2007, statement from Dutton:

"Towards the end of December 2006, the Company started to release detailed quarterly financial statements, which will help improve corporate transparency and enable institutional investors to better assess the Company's attractive prospects."

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1

Dutton predicts $2.18 '06 EPS and $2.53 '07 EPS.  However, Duttons price targe is only $20.24.  That is only a 9.28 PE ratio for '06.  Any ideas why Dutton's target is so low?  Industry average PE ratio is 27.76.  Target for XING, based on '06 EPS, should be $60.51; based on '07 EPS, should be $70.23.  The industry average PE ratio is low considering that XING's 3 year EPS growth is 130.77% and industry average is 8.02%.

More positives:
1) Float is only 15,900,000 shares.
2) 3 month net institutional ownership up 2,853,000 shares. 

Again, great pick.

the low target price with regard to the astounding estimated EPS by Dutton's also confuses me.. Short term their report will certainly boost the share price but it would be nice to see an upgrade once XING reaches $20. I think that the main problem holding XING back is low transparency and highly irregular fillings that would hopefully now improve.
On a more personal note: Despite all the ups and downs I love XING. I have been accumulating since it was for $7-$10 and I only took some profits at $16.5. I was accumulating again for the last 6 weeks when XING went bellow $12.8 and recent run is just a great reward sending my portfolio up to the sky  ;D 8)

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 20, 2007, 12:25:45 PM
Hey Melf,

So whats your take on our XINGer then?  Friday's candle looked a bit toppy to me, and I was disappointed that it broke down after such a strong start to the day.

Scotsman,

It was up 23.7% in just 3 days, so we got some profit-taking.  That's fine.

Quote
but am thinking about taking some profits here, just so I've got some in the bank.

Two targets got MADE, the last at 14.89 just below here.  You're never going to get hurt "taking some profits when targets get MADE."  While I expect XING to go higher on that nice DOUBLE breakout, one never knows, especially in a volatile stock like this one.

Quote
I put the channel breakout target at about 16.11 (i.e. measured move off the channel breakout - channel width (14.22 - 11.54 = 2.68) => 13.43 + 2.68 = 16.11) which is what I'm aiming for here, and I think it is doable in the short term, but we may get some consolidation first.

That's a more conservative measurement than mine (I used the top of the channel, not the width of the channel), but your target is fine, and a valid way to measure. 

Quote
Still, XING has been way more explosive than I anticipated, and the weekly chart also suggests it wants to go up more, and break new highs.

On this particular DOUBLE breakout, I rather expected the "shock and awe" of an explosive rally.  The fractal pattern and fractal behavior history in the channel always had bearish outcomes, so the "sea change" to a bullish outcome caught players off guard.

The weekly semi-log chart also gives us a nice idea of the long term trend, and XING has clearly been traversing this long term upward channel after that double bottom on 2005.

Makes me think that if we were willing to hold on for a few months, we could see it reach Dutton's target.  But man, I have trouble holding on to a stock for more than a few weeks, so we'll just have to see on this one.

Does make me think we will see a bit of resistance in the low $15 area though, coming off that band of trading in October and November.  Also confirms 13.88 as the key support line.  Would be a good area to add shares if we get a pullback.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 20, 2007, 05:01:10 PM
The weekly semi-log chart also gives us a nice idea of the long term trend, and XING has clearly been traversing this long term upward channel after that double bottom on 2005.

Scotsman,

Thanks for posting long-term trend.  It was The #1 Reason that I was trying to find my way back into XING after I sold it for a loss , at 13.94, on November 27, the day before the BIG Descending Triangle broke down.

The short-term trend turned very bearish on that breakdown (the finally tally was a loss of 32.9% on the drop from 17.20 to 11.54), but given the fact that the larger trend was so bullish, I knew that I wanted it on just about any excuse that XiNG gave me to buy it back at a better price.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 12, 2007, 07:05:25 AM
The fractal behavior suggests that this attempt at a QUADRUPLE bottom is going to fail, as well. but what if it doesn't fail, but instead, knocks out the top of the Little Bull Flag, then the top of the channel?

Remember how we found that to be a pretty good excuse to risk a loss of 1½% on that "possibility?"  We knew that the long-term trend was in our favor, and that...

Quote
Hmm-mm...that would be a "sea change" in the fractal behavior, and it also would be an upside resolution of all of these "nested" fractals (meaning that they're all contained within the BIG red channel).

That would look quite nice.

Thus far, we've been rewarded for buying a stock that is in a long-term bullish trend, after a big pullback in what ultimately became a BIG down-sloping channel (Bullish Continuation pattern) with a bunch of nested fractals (in terms of both patterns, and behavior).

Isn't that the way we're 'sposed to play the market?

Quote
Makes me think that if we were willing to hold on for a few months, we could see it reach Dutton's target. 

We have every reason to think that, because on the print of 13.41 on January 16, we finally had a "perfect marriage" of the technicals and the fundamentals.

DOUBLE breakout in a stock with good fundamentals...SHOCK AND AWE to the upside!

We had another "perfect marriage" of the technicals and the fundamentals in XING on a print of 11.91 on September 13, which we'll discuss in a minute.

Quote
But man, I have trouble holding on to a stock for more than a few weeks, so we'll just have to see on this one.

I can see that I'm going to have to wrestle you to the ground, to protect you from your Impatient Demon.

:D  >:D

Believe me, I completely understand your "trader mentality," because I deal with that same demon, and with many other demons, as we each do.

On Friday, when XING was booking it to the upside into the 15.50s, I was thinking, "This probably is a short-term Blowoff Top.  It's up over 20% in three days, I should grab the money, and get back in on a pullback."

Sometimes I do that, and it works out fine.  But, other times, and I find this especially in stocks that have terrific breakouts like XING had, they won't let me back in.  The pullbacks are too shallow.

Now that we can see that XING did pull back, and closed on a Bearish Inverted Hangman (only short-term bearish, and it needs downside confirmation), I probably would have been fine selling 15.50, and getting back in lower. 

But, how much lower?  I would look at an intraday chart, and try to find a pattern target, etc., but I decided to leave this XING trade alone.  I've already taken 25% off the table right ahead of the 13.41 breakout, to defend against a failure there, and as we now know, it was anything but a failure! 

Quote
Does make me think we will see a bit of resistance in the low $15 area though, coming off that band of trading in October and November.  Also confirms 13.88 as the key support line.  Would be a good area to add shares if we get a pullback.

Yes, we sure would like to see 13.88 be support if we get that kind of pullback, but let's look at the bigger picture.

We'll start at Blue #1, to the left of the chart, which was a top, and which also was the beginning of a Symmetrical Triangle (blue) that had a nested Bullish Inverse H&S, and also a nested Bullish Falling Wedge (purple).

Nested means that two other bullish patterns were "contained within" the larger pattern (the blue Symmetrical triangle).

Those "nested" patterns tend to have Blockbuster power when the stock breaks out, I would suspect because the pattern has been "morphing" (changing) for so long, and confusing everyone, that when we finally recognize what's going on, that a print of 11.91 is a TRIPLE pattern breakout...

Oh-h-h, buddy!  :o

If we are on The Anxious Bench about the trade (nervous), we can worry that on the second day, XING pulled back.  The after two nice white candles, we can worry about the three black candles.  Then we can worry about the sideways trading (Rectangle in green)...

But, if we leave the trade alone, after a TRIPLE breakout, and let it do its thing, the 15.25 and 15.65 targets get MADE with no problem, and XiNG went on to 17.20 for some "extra."

The TRIPLE nested Bullish Symmetrical Triangle took just under 3 months to form; the targets took just under one month to get MADE, so about one-third of the time, which is the type of thing we see on that kind of Blockbuster breakout.

We just had a Blockbuster breakout on January 16, on the print of 13.41.  Do we see any reason to sit on The Anxious Bench about the trade?

Yes, something "could" come out on the fundamentals, and we "could" get blind-sided by a huge gap down, but given how bullish the chart is, does that seem likely?

Bottom line, Scotsman: You know that I like to take at least "some" profits when targets get MADE to lock in a winner, and to defend against any curve balls being thrown at me, so you might want to go ahead and do that here, but I'd suggest trying to give yourself a chance to have a bigger gain in XING.

While it's hard to wait (I also have the Impatient Demon  :D  >:D), consider the fact that you could take the profit here in XING, and then your Over-trading Demon will grab it from you and go crazy with stocks that are much less attractive than this DOUBLE breakout in XING.

:D  >:D

Regardless of how you play it, barring a total disaster, you're going to have a gain from your very nice 12.69 entry into XING. 

Nice "problem" to have, huh?!  ;)

So true you wise old elf!!!!

Gotta wrestle that impatient demon to the ground!!  Thing is, I know  we just caught the bottom of a major channel breakout, I know the we have a company here that has a fundamentally changing picture, and the Dutton report clearly emphasised that.  I know that in 3 months XING will be significantly higher than it is today.  I have to just sit on my hands and let it do its thing.

After all, the hardest thing is in the waiting, and letting the pattern play out.  But don't worry, if I take some profits here, it will be max 1/3 of my position.  The rest I will let run with a conservative stop ( I think somewhere below that 13.88 level).

I know I am a certified over trader, and I have to work on this, so thanks for the reminder and the words of encouragement.

Cheers
ST

P.S. Didn't mean to call you "old".  After all we are all as young as we feel!!

P.P.S.  Can I suggest you have a wee look at FRPT?  I know its already run 3000% but I think it has another 50% move or so in the works.  Big things cookin.  ;)

David

May be it's "falling in love" but...........
I'm 100% invested in XING.....................  ::)

What do you say?  ::)

Call 1-800- ENRON Voova

Ask those folks about being 100% in one stock.  Downside risk outweighs upside gain, even if you get one right.  imho.

I've read the full Dutton report on XING, which you can find here:
http://www.jmdutton.com/research/XING/index.html

Quite interesting, and apparently reliable information. I think they have such a "low" price target because they wouldn't look responsible if they were to say "this stock will rise 200 or 300%". No respectable research firm ever does that, even if it thinks it will happen.

I guess the problem with XING has always been low institutional ownership because the company's reporting practices were extremely weak (it used to be just a press release without a detailed net income and balance sheet statement - that recently changed).

And institutions are responding, as buddjas1 says (where did you get that information about institutional ownership buddjas1? Thanks!)

XING's valuation seems extremely attractive and there are positive catalysts that should move it higher, like the launch of 3G in China, expected before the 2008 Olympics (this factor isn't considered in Dutton's 2007 EPS estimate, to be "conservative", because they don't know if it will impact 2007 results or just 2008).

Quote from: voova99 on January 21, 2007, 09:42:08 AM
David

May be it's "falling in love" but...........
I'm 100% invested in XING.....................  ::)

What do you say?  ::)

Well, that's always very risky, but I suggest you send a private message to AussieTrader, because he once wrote a story about a guy that turned a few thousand dollars into millions, always owning just 1 and 1 only stock.

It also depends on your initial capital size. If you have just $5,000, what the hell, you can't diversify enough without incurring significant trading costs, so why not buy it all in just 1 or 2 stocks that you think have significant upside and not much risk? But if you have $50,000 to invest and put it all in XING, I would say you're taking too high and unnecessary risks.

I'll continue holding XING.

Barron's included Dutton's 2007 estimates in their page:
http://online.barrons.com/public/resources/documents/barrons_nnm_Q.htm

Gee I come in this morning and my e-mail tells me 3 SOF bought XING on Friday.

I was on 3SOF on/off onFriday and checked posts this weekend.  I can't read every post.  How did I miss this buy?  The only place I find that it was announced was on the XING thread.  What did I miss?

Help me out here.   Is there some way that 3SOF can have an alert system for new buys/sells?

I received an email on Friday announcing buying of XING, just like every day.

I rec'd two e-mails on Fri, one telling us to sell NVLS titled "The instruction for NVLS ..., the other was the daily update titled "Long Term + Short Term + Updates", nothing in it about XING.

Quote from: JKN on January 22, 2007, 10:17:41 AM
I rec'd two e-mails on Fri, one telling us to sell NVLS titled "The instruction for NVLS ..., the other was the daily update titled "Long Term + Short Term + Updates", nothing in it about XING.

I sent an e-mail titled "XING to the Main", at about 8:30 ET on Friday. Let me inform Ramburg of this issue, perhaps your e-mail refuses some 3 SOF mails, I don't know what happened.

Sorry for this ???

Thanks David...Ramsburg sent me a PM and I just responded.  I'm not sure what happened either.  Its always possible that I accidently deleted it but I'm not in the habit of doing that with 3SOF msgs.

Thanks...

Kent

XING is one of the most undervalued growth stocks in the entire Nasdaq market (in fact, it is the most undervalued I've ever studied, I think).

They make cellular phones and other telecommunication equipment in China, for the Chinese market, but can start selling across the world. XING could be one of the first Chinese global trademarks.

I'm sure they do great phones at a much cheaper price than Nokia, Erikson or Motorola. Check XING's website (http://www.qiaoxing.net/english/company/profile.htm) (it's a slow website, probably because it is hosted in China).

Their reporting practices were lousy (and they used to dilute shareholder's value), but that has been changing. The stock is responding to the fundamental change.

Dutton estimates 2007 EPS at $2.53 :o This means that if they're right, the forward earnings multiple is 6. And we're talking about expected EPS growth of 51%, from 2006 to 2007.

Nothing else to do but to buy and hold XING for the long term.

I'm long on XING and have done well these past months, and I think there is plenty more to come.

I'm not one for posting unsubstantiated information, but the below is a quote from a guy called Kevin Chen. He is pretty wel known on the Yahoo XING board and has his own investing forum also (I have in fact referenced him to 3SoF a long time back). He is long term long on XING because of the changing fundamentals and move to transparency, combined with lo low valuation, leading products and overall long term growth prospects (same as me I guess). He is Chinese and has Chinese based friends. Previous inputs he has given have proven correct. So I post his comments on that basis.

Quote Kevin Chen 19th Jan:
Just got the first hand data from my friends working in big electronic store chains in China. CECT's 4Q sales was absolutely astounding this time, and Cosun had a strong showing too.

How astounding? Just look at two hottest models: IP1000 and C1000 (the newest champion of battery life with 1,500 hour standby time). Almost every stores packed their warehouse with these two models before December becasue of consumers' super high interest on them from marketing surveys and early sales in November. Yet, all those units were depleted every week in most stores, forcing them to place re-orders to CECT every week. They are probably the hottest electronic gadgets on earth after PS3 and Wii in the past two months! (visit some electronic stores in China or ask someboby who did and you'll know I am not kidding you)

Fortunately, this time the company did prepared with enough material and production lines to boost output for the retailers. Scott, you know, it seems that our sales target of $175M is very likely going to be surpassed. From preliminary data, I am estimating that these two models probably have been sold as least 100,000 units each in 4Q. With an average sale price of about $300 from CECT (retail price $400+), the company got $70M or more from just these two models!

Xing and CECT each had more than 10 new models in stores in Winter. Although second to these two, other models were also very popular. The sales from those 20 or so new models alone probably have surpassed $170M, and we haven't count follow through sales from all earlier models yet, including Tre650, A1000, and A900.

Quote from: David Randolph on January 22, 2007, 04:11:31 AM
It also depends on your initial capital size. If you have just $5,000, what the hell, you can't diversify enough without incurring significant trading costs, so why not buy it all in just 1 or 2 stocks that you think have significant upside and not much risk? But if you have $50,000 to invest and put it all in XING, I would say you're taking too high and unnecessary risks.

I agree , David.

May be investment in XING will help me diversify in the future  ;)

This is the link (from yahoo message board) showing institutional owership in XING. If it's true, it now approaches 20%.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=xing&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=XING

"And institutions are responding, as buddjas1 says (where did you get that information about institutional ownership buddjas1? Thanks!)"

My broker is E*Trade.  E*Trade provides stock information through "Market Guide Inc.," which is updated weekly.

Thanks for the great post and information AussieTrader. Tell me, that guy, Kevin Chen, what's his nickname on Yahoo? I'll keep an eye on his posts going forward, thanks.

Quote from: rspisek on January 23, 2007, 02:43:53 PM
This is the link (from yahoo message board) showing institutional owership in XING. If it's true, it now approaches 20%.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=xing&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=XING

Great link rspisek, thanks. It looks like Navellier and Bear Sterns have initiated meaningful positions in XING on the 3rd and 4th quarters.

The stock declined a bit yesterday on profit taking, since it was up about 20% in just 5 trading days. I expect the uptrend to resume shortly, as fundamentals are as attractive as they can be.

The advantage of holding a fundamentally strong stock like XING is that when it goes down on profit taking, it usually bounces back quickly.

XING makes telecommunications equipment, phones and cellular phones for a 1.3 billion people market place. In my view, it can grow a lot (as it has been doing).

The undervaluation, perhaps warranted in the past due to poor financial reporting, seems a nonsense now. XING is trading at 6 times estimated 2007 EPS. If this multiple rises to a more reasonable 18 times earnings (still cheap, considering EPS growth), the stock would rise to $46/share.

I don't see why not.

I'll keep holding XING, both a value and a growth play, that is, the best of both worlds in one single stock.

People are very excited about XING on Yahoo. Perhaps in the past I didn't consider that to be a positive sign. But now I see those thoughts  had no ground basis, because capital moves from weak stocks to strong ones, that is, the more people that feel positive about a stock, the more they will spread the word and the more people will come to that stock and that is what causes many speculative waves and ballooning stock prices.

A meteoric rise can indeed happen on XING, but for the fundamentally right reasons. The fact that the stock is this undervalued is bringing such a crowd to the stock that is capable of initiating a speculative wave that will take the stock from undervalued to overvalued, can you imagine that?

Imagine XING goes from 6 times 2007 earnings to 30 times 2007 earnings (then it would be overvalued). The share price would rise to $77.5.

While we're allowed to dream about this very bullish outlook, it's also nice to know that underneath the current share price are real products, revenues and earnings, that limit the downside.

That's why I consider XING to be the best of both worlds: value won't let it go down. Historical growth patterns have the potential to make it rise a lot.

There's only one thing to do when considering XING: Buy and HOLD.

I'm buying and holding XING and I have a 5% profit to show. Not bad, but I expect much more as time goes by.

I've talked to my brother, whom lived in Macau for about a year, and he didn't know the Cosun mobile phones. Probably that's because China is so big that they're not selling in Macau, a former Portuguese colony.

I'm checking their website and it looks they don't have just phones and mobile phones, but also something similar to an iPod, take a look: http://www.qiaoxing.com/

My brother said the Chinese don't care much about the trademarks, they care mostly about the gadget's technical capabilities (games, accessories, etc).

I'll keep holding XING with strong hands (not hard to do, since it keeps moving up).

Another day, another 5% gain for XING. The 2006 high is in reach now, at $17.17. I expect XING to approach and surpass that more or less technically significant level with ease.

Just sit tight and let the profits run.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 12, 2007, 10:06:45 AM
Bought XING at 12.67.  Stop: 12.48.  Risk: a loss of 1½%.

Sold my remaining 75% XING at 17.40.   Gain: 37.3%.

Gain on the trade: 29.4%.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 07:38:37 AM
Here's what I've got for targets on the DOUBLE breakout:
1. 14.22 - Top of the Bull Flag.  MADE on January 16.

2. 14.89 - Measured Move off the Bull Flag.  MADE on January 18

3. 17.20 - Top of the Channel

4. 19.06 - Measured Move off the Channel breakout

17.20 MADE.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 18, 2007, 03:51:17 AM
rspisek,

You're welcome.  Yes, I'm 75% long.  If all goes well with this DOUBLE breakout, I'd expect to see us near the top of the channel, at 17.20, by March 13; no later than April 19.

And, 17.20 MADE well ahead of schedule.

19.06 still is IN PLAY, but that's nice gain in a short time, so I decided to take the money.

Nice trade melf! Missed this one  :-\

Quote from: nullzero on January 30, 2007, 01:41:27 PM
Nice trade melf! Missed this one  :-\

Thanks, nullz.  That's okay.  We can't catch them all.

This morning's gap up to 16.90 and rally beyond the 17.20 target looked like it could be a short-term blowoff after a very nice, but very sharp, rally.

If XING finishes near here, that would put a Bearish Inverted Hangman on the chart (it would need downside confirmation), so it might consolidate a bit since the 17.20 target MADE.

Man you are amazing!! 2 pennies off the high!!  I sold some today in the 17.20s, but still keeping a bit in the bag.  XING has been a real xinger and a good one to us, so I have to thank you for the heads up on this trade.

I'd like to see it close above 17.20 if it could, though this might be a bit much to ask.  If it did though it could signal an attempt at that $19 target.

Cmon XING!!

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 30, 2007, 02:07:34 PM
Man you are amazing!! 2 pennies off the high!!

Scotsman,

Thanks, but that was pure luck that I nailed the HOD that closely.

My plan was to sell another 25% with the 17.20 target got MADE, but when I saw it pumping so hard to the upside after this morning's gap I, I started thinking "Short-term Blowoff Top." 

I decided to hang about a minute when 17.20 MADE, and see if I could catch a little more (Greed Demon  >:D).  When it kept pumping higher, beyond the target, I decided to sell all of it at the market.

Pure luck that I got the 17.40 fill.

Quote
I sold some today in the 17.20s, but still keeping a bit in the bag.

That's great.  Congratulattions!

Quote
XING has been a real xinger and a good one to us,

Boy, it sure has!

Quote
so I have to thank you for the heads up on this trade.

My pleasure, and thanks for our interesting discussions on it.

Quote
I'd like to see it close above 17.20 if it could, though this might be a bit much to ask.  If it did though it could signal an attempt at that $19 target.

Cmon XING!!

You've got a chance of an upside breakout here in the 5-minute.  Good luck!   ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 30, 2007, 02:02:24 PM
If XING finishes near here, that would put a Bearish Inverted Hangman on the chart (it would need downside confirmation), so it might consolidate a bit since the 17.20 target MADE.

XING finished with a Bearish Long-legged Doji Star, which is an important reversal signal if there is downside confirmation.

A gap down in today's session, that isn't filled, would leave the Long-legged Doji Star as an Abandonded Baby on the chart, and if XING closes today at 16.27, or lower, the 3-day pattern, including today's session, would form a Bearish Evening Star pattern, suggesting more on the downside.

A selloff here wouldn't be unreasonable, given the 39% rally off the 12.50 - 12.52 QUADRUPLE bottom, in just over two weeks.

A bullish consolidation/continuation pattern now, like a Bull Flag...Symmetrical Triangle...would be healthy for the chart, structurally.

The 30 minute chart gives an idea of the trendline that has been supporting this move.  I'm placing my stop on the remainder of my position just below his level.  Yesterdays candle does look dangerously toppy, and I wouldn't like to see downside confirmation, but I'm willing to give XING the benefit of the doubt, she's been good to me...

Well, XING opened with a gap up, attacked the $17.17 resistance level, but couldn't hold above it. It ended with a doji candlestick, so maybe it will go down a bit today to close the micro gap opened between $16.68 and $16.75.

Anyway, that doesn't matter at all for the long term prospects of the stock, which point to a much higher than the current share price, so I'll keep holding.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 31, 2007, 05:38:06 AM
A gap down in today's session, that isn't filled, would leave the Long-legged Doji Star as an Abandonded Baby on the chart, and if XING closes today at 16.27, or lower, the 3-day pattern, including today's session, would form a Bearish Evening Star pattern, suggesting more on the downside.

This morning's gap down wasn't below yesterday's low, so no Abandoned Baby, but if XING closes near here, it puts the 3-day Bearish Evening Star on the Daily chart.

To complete a Bearish Evening Star pattern, today needs to close 50% or more into Monday's white candle, which would be 16.27, or lower.

Sometimes, that pattern gets negated when a stock takes out the high of the pattern, which in this case is yesterday's high of 17.42, but until it does, the Bearish Evening Star pattern gives a strong suggestion of a reversal.

Applauds Melf, you really nailed it on XING this time, certainly makes up for the loss you took on it before!  The remainder of my position got stopped out this morning, but at 16.40!! My stop was at 16.63!  The gap down and ugly first red candle must have have hit a lot of tight stops this morning.

XING is currently riding a bear channel on the intraday - looks like it could base around 16.00, today at least, but still looks bearish.  I think we could see some continuation down to 15.50 support (previous resistance).   I may look to get back in around there, we'll see.

QuoteIt ended with a doji candlestick, so maybe it will go down a bit today to close the micro gap opened between $16.68 and $16.75.

Yep, people took some money out of the table on XING, as it filled the gap left opened on the rise. Probably the traders that took profits will be forced to get back in after XING breaks out above the $17.17 resistance level to a new 7 year high.

I'm confident that $17.17 won't be a problem for long, since fundamentals are as attractive as they can be, as you can read on the rest of this thread.

XING formed an H&S top on the 15 minute intraday chart, breaking down below the neckline at 16.42 yesterday.  It rallied late in the day to test this neckline, but failed to close above it.  Looks like a good short term short setup to me, as it gives a good risk:reward on the trade with a tight stop above 16.50, provided XING opens near where it closed yesterday.  Target of the H&S top is 15.42.

Your kinda pattern Melf, thought you'd like it  ;)

Quote from: ScottishTrader on February 01, 2007, 07:20:11 AM
XING formed an H&S top on the 15 minute intraday chart, breaking down below the neckline at 16.42 yesterday.

Scotsman,

Right. 

The Head was a Descending Triangle, that put 16.20 IN PLAY when 16.81 broke on yesterday's gap down below the 16.81 lows.

Math:

17.42 - High

16.81 - Identical lows

17.42 - 16.81 = 0.61 points

16.81 - 0.61 = Target 16.20 IN PLAY

16.20 MADE ten minutes after the neckline of you H&S Top broke to the downside.

This morning's rally to 16.90 was a gap-filling Bull Trap, back to Tuesday's 16.88 close, so that gap was filled, and XING went back below the neckline.

We took out yesterday's 16.00 low and did a partial gap fill of 15.82 - 15.75, from Monday's gap up to 15.89.  The low thus far today is 15.81.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on February 01, 2007, 07:20:11 AM
Target of the H&S top is 15.42.

Yeah, I get about 15.35, so those are close. 

We might not get it, since the trend is bullish.   The partial gap fill of 15.82- 15.75 could have been good enough for this selloff.  Targets against the dominant trend are less like to get MADE, so we'll keep that in mind.

Quote
Your kinda pattern Melf, thought you'd like it  ;)

Yes, I liked that.  Nice work!  ;)

XING currently is BID 16.03...ASK 16.04

Scotsman,

I'm daytrading this Ascending Triangle.  Needs to print 16.36 to breakout.

XING currently is right there, at BID 16.34...ASK 16.35.

A breakout should get it back to your neckline, at least.

Okay, there's 16.36.

Actually, it jumped right over 16.36, and printed 16.37..16.39...16.40...

Probably a crowd right there, wanting the little breakout.

XING now is BID 16.41...ASK 16.42

She's making another little move higher here.  ;)

I'll stop it out at 16.30, below the 16.31 low, prior to the breakout above 16.34.  We've got to be pretty close to your neckline now, but I'll play it into the close.

XING currently is BID 16.48...ASK 16.50

Another little breakout above 16.52.  Raising my stop to 16.42, below the last low, at 16.43.

Sold at 16.64. 

 

Well thats an afternoon's entertainment...   ;)

Nice trade melf! 8)

Xing went up at the last hour of the day. Will it open and continue to go up in the long term uptrend or is $15.35 the next stop based on the previous day's H & S pattern?

I bought 1/2 of my shares back when I saw the amount of strength in XING.... an am not quite sure whether I should hold them tomorrow.

I sold my shares at 16.40 when it broke opening range in the a.m. and bought back at 16.00 later in the day. XING chart reminds me of last september when it bounced off the 9 ema and made new 5 year high.

Yesterday people started selling China related stocks due to reports on Bloomberg and Reuters saying that Chinese stocks traded in China were crashing, with the main index of the Shanghai exchange falling 7% yesterday.

The fall in Chinese equities was due to a member of the government saying the market was overvalued. I'm not sure about that, but a correction was warranted, since that even with yesterday's 7% fall the market is still up by 17% in 2007.

But I think that has nothing to do with XING, which certainly is not overvalued. In fact, it is one of the most undervalued stocks I've ever seen, considering the 6.6 forward earnings multiple and the 51% year over year EPS growth.

As I wrote yesterday:

QuoteProbably the traders that took profits will be forced to get back in after XING breaks out above the $17.17 resistance level to a new 7 year high.

I'm confident that $17.17 won't be a problem for long, since fundamentals are as attractive as they can be, as you can read on the rest of this thread.

Quote from: brandyjoco on February 01, 2007, 07:29:03 PM
Xing went up at the last hour of the day. Will it open and continue to go up in the long term uptrend or is $15.35 the next stop based on the previous day's H & S pattern?

Brandyjoco,

Since we never can know the future, my feeling is that the best we can do, is know what we're going to do about it .

For example, when the Descending Triangle, which was The Head of The Scotsman's H&S Top pattern, #1 through #4, broke to the downside at Wednesday's gap down opening, that put Target: 16.20 IN PLAY.

At that point, we ask ourselves, "Is that target going to get MADE?"  We can't possibly know that in advance, but we can know what we're going to do about it.

We can sell.  We can short it.  We can decide to hold for the long-term, if that's our perspective.

See what I mean?

The H&S Top breakdown that The Scotsman pointed out put roughly 15.35 - 15.42 IN PLAY (hard to measure exactly, on the intraday charts).

What do we want to do about that?

Stay short (if we're short)?  Wait for that target to get MADE to cover the short? Enter long there, if we're waiting for a pullback to enter?

When the Ascending Triangle (in yellow) formed during yesterday's session, what I wanted to do about it, was to play the long side for a breakout of that pattern, above 16.35, because:

1. Bearish targets (15.35 -15.42) are less likely to get MADE in a stock that is as bullish as XING.

2. The Momo Boys tend to jump all over nice little pattern breakouts, like we had out of that Ascending Triangle, on the print of 16.36.  Remember that it didn't actually print 16.36 (see the Time & Sales on my chart yesterday, for reference)?  XING gapped from 16.35 to 16.37, indicating that players were lined up there to buy, then XING ran higher into the close.

The Ascending Triangle breakout above 16.35 put a target of 16.89 IN PLAY, which would be a return to yesterday's high, which was a gap-filling Bull Trap.

Math:

16.35 - Flat top of the Ascending Triangle, which was 16.35...16.35...16.35

15.81 - Partial gap filling (15.75 - 15.82) low of the pattern

16.35 - 15.81 = 0.54 Points

16.35 + 0.54 = Ascending Triangle target: 16.89

These short-term intraday patterns are much more difficult to play than those on daily charts, so even though 16.89 still is IN PLAY, what I decided to do about my trade, was to "take the money" at 16.64 at the close, because it only was a very short-term trade, off a 1-Minute chart.

The fact that XING closed back above the neckline of The Scotsman's H&S Top puts that downside target of 15.35 - 15.42 ON HOLD, and suggests that 16.89 will get MADE this morning, but again, we can't know that. 

We only can know what we want to do about it.

Quote
I bought 1/2 of my shares back when I saw the amount of strength in XING.... an am not quite sure whether I should hold them tomorrow.

You asked if XING was going to continue in it's longer-term uptrend.  Unless you're working off an intraday chart like this, and analyzing the patterns and figuring the targets IN PLAY, I would suggest that you not make these short-term plays in the market, because you're left not knowing what you're going to do about it.

Rather, I'd suggest that you position trade, and "sell into strength" when targets get MADE.  We've had three targets that MADE, so far: 14.22, 14.89 and 17.20.

Just a suggestion, Brandyjoco.  I certainly don't mean to tell you, or anyone else, how to trade.

Good luck!

Quote from: ygtrdr on February 01, 2007, 08:26:30 PM
I sold my shares at 16.40 when it broke opening range in the a.m. and bought back at 16.00 later in the day. XING chart reminds me of last september when it bounced off the 9 ema and made new 5 year high.

ygtrdr,

Nice going!  Yes, the 9EMA yesterday was at 15.9377, and XING bounced VERY quickly after the partial gap fill of 15.75 - 15.82.  The low was 15.81.

Good luck!

here is another short term view of the hourly chart
rock on xing
max

Melf,

I wanted to thank you for all of your information and replies. I reallyappreciate all of the expertise that you have written on these boards.  You have no idea how you have helped me to make 'smart' trades (AUY was a recent one). It has really been a struggle for me (because of previous losses) and I look forward to your posts.

Thanks again!!

Quote from: brandyjoco on February 02, 2007, 11:23:48 AM
Melf,

I wanted to thank you for all of your information and replies. I reallyappreciate all of the expertise that you have written on these boards.  You have no idea how you have helped me to make 'smart' trades (AUY was a recent one). It has really been a struggle for me (because of previous losses) and I look forward to your posts.

Thanks again!!

Brandyjoco,

You're very welcome.  I'm glad if any of it has been helpful to you.

Interesting day yesterday in XING.

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 02, 2007, 09:07:30 AM
The Ascending Triangle breakout above 16.35 put a target of 16.89 IN PLAY, which would be a return to yesterday's high, which was a gap-filling Bull Trap.

XING attempted to get to the 16.89 target, right out of the gate, but got only to 16.80.

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These short-term intraday patterns are much more difficult to play than those on daily charts, so even though 16.89 still is IN PLAY, what I decided to do about my trade, was to "take the money" at 16.64 at the close, because it only was a very short-term trade, off a 1-Minute chart.

The Bullish Ascending Triangle breakout off the 1-Minute chart was a play against the short-term trend, which turned bearish when:

1. The Decending Triangle broke down, below 16.81.

2. The Scotsman's H&S Top broke down.

Targets against the trend (in this case, we're talking short-term trend, which is bearish) are less likely to get MADE.

Not only did 16.89 not get MADE, look where yesterday's early rally ended: 16.80.

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The Head was a Descending Triangle, that put 16.20 IN PLAY when 16.81 broke on yesterday's gap down below the 16.81 lows.

"Former support became resistance."

So, Thursday morning's gap-filling Bull Trap rally ended at 16.89, which later became the Ascending Triangle target IN PLAY in the 1-Minute chart, but yesterday, the rally to that target ended at the bottom of the broken Descending triangle, which was 16.81. 

"Been there...done that."  XING sold off for the remainder of the day, and we now know that 16.80-16.89 TWICE has been established as short-term resistance.

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The fact that XING closed back above the neckline of The Scotsman's H&S Top puts that downside target of 15.35 - 15.42 ON HOLD, and suggests that 16.89 will get MADE this morning, but again, we can't know that.

Once XING failed at 16.80 and went back below The Scotsman's neckline, the H&S Top target of 15.35 - 15.42 went back IN PLAY.

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XING bounced VERY quickly after the partial gap fill of 15.75 - 15.82.  The low was 15.81.

That gap now has been filled completely, and the close was 15.81, which was Thursday's close.

That could be good enough for another rally attempt, but summarizing what we know about the Bearish short-term picture:

1. We initally had a Descending Triangle breakdown below 16.81, which also was The Head of The Scotsman's H&S Top.

2. We had another Bearish pattern breakdown, The Scotsman's H&S Top.

3. We had a gap-filling Bull Trap rally to 16.89, that failed.

4. We had an Ascending Triangle rally to the 16.89 target IN PLAY that failed at 16.80, below the 16.81 bottom of the Descending Triangle.

With that kind of confirmation of the short-term bearish trend, it seems reasonable to expect that the H&S Top target of 15.35 - 15.42 will get MADE, unless/until we see some evidence that indicates otherwise (like the little Bullish Ascending Triangle on the 1-Minute chart, that broke out above 16.35 on Thursday).

Some comments on the daily chart, next post.