XING

[Michael]

Hi David,

Congrats with SPEX that was a struck of genius!

XING is an interesting investment. I believe it is a good long term investment but timing is of essence here.

As I have mentioned you should be careful holding it over earnings. XING has a history of issuing great PR's up to earnings and reporting great earnings. That is the good news. The bad news is that they only report earnings per share in the annual earnings report and EPS is normally disappointing as they have a tendency to dilute earnings quite significantly.

I guess the real question is if XING can grow earnings faster than they issue shares and the real play is to buy up to the annual report. With the earning growth they have till today they might have a chance to "surprise" to the updside this year and I would consider to buy in December but it really is a gamble.

Mike

[David Randolph]

Thanks for showing me the light on XING Michael, I really had a hard understanding it. So, what is your current share count for the company at this moment?

I see 18.65M at Market Watch, 16.64M at Yahoo and 18.65M at the company's website. Maybe this number will grow to the double when the company reports its annual figures? How much dilution was there in the past?

Thanks a lot 

I know I don't know enough about XING, so I have to trust the market for hold/sell decisions.

I'll continue holding the stock for as long as it doesn't close below $7.50.

[puenthouse]

0300 AM Ok so im sick to my stomach. Had a trigger near support for 100 shares and i guess i hit 1000.  I had no clue.  so now i have 10,000  60% of my portfolio in this bad boy.  So while some are made money of of SPEX, i am getting crushed.  I do believe that I am no good at this.  I can not follow simple instructions  ( Dave i dont know how you do it, i buy and sell a littler later then you, but what a difference).   I would do better buying new cars and selling them a week later used.

1213 pm  Ok i did not want to make a new post.  So after chasing it down in the 7.30s the stock honestly said "ok Puent is out, lets go back up"  can some one please tell me why I suck so bad at this.  ATLEAST I DID NOT HAVE THE FUNDS TO SHORT IT LIKE I WANTED TO> 

Are you telling me i honestly am just that unlucky to get to work at 11 AM eastern time, and miss the SPEX buy, but arrive in time to see my 60% percent plummet and panic?  is there something with the stock market at 11?  It seems that i make most of my mistakes at that time ?

9 pm  WEll i have calmed down.  So has the stock obviously.  Back up above the line.   Bad luck once again.  Need to maintain and just keep the pace.  Never good to get set back several months of profits.  Its a good lesson to learn, DONT BE STUPID.

[422fwhp]

I remeber in the recent past that AS SOON AS I BUY...it goes down.  Or as SOON AS I SELL...it goes up.  At the time, I was at home for a spell due to an ankle operation.  As it turns out, I was watching intraday trading WAY TOO MUCH.  It's very bad for you!  And can cause one to make rash decisions...especially for the novice.

Lesson learned:  Don't watch intraday.


later...Jody

[irod]

I agree. Don't watch intraday. Especially at 10 - 11 AM, I believe some call this the "10 AM effect". Most people trade between market open and this time, so stocks usually have larger movements, then settle, then move again at the end of the day.

I also missed SPEX and was really bummed out by it. It is so hard to follow Dave's picks with the time differences, him being in Europe and all. For me the market open is at 6:30 AM, and I'm not what you'd call an early morning bird, so it's really hard on me to be up at that time (I've still managed to do it almost every day in the last 3 months.)

I love it when Dave posts his updates at around 2:00 AM my time, that way I can place my orders and sleep like a baby. I can't tell you how many times I've kicked myself for oversleeping and not reading his picks before the open. Other times I'll go to bed at 3 or 4 AM just waiting for him to post, but he posts until right before the open, and since I went to bed so late, I oversleep.

I wish we could have a standard time for the picks, that way we could be more disciplined and not have to chase them aroud. We could even have 2 times, in case Dave misses the first one we'd know for sure he'd post at the second one. I don't know, someone might have a better idea. Just tought I'd give my 2 cents.

[422fwhp]

In at $7.46, I saw this as a very low risk opportunity so I jumped in.  We shall see.

Good luck...Jody

[422fwhp]

But I see the stock trading at least $10 in no more than 2 weeks time, so I have to be in.

Do you still believe this David?   

[David Randolph]

I got many questions and comments on XING, great, let's start:

0300 AM Ok so im sick to my stomach. Had a trigger near support for 100 shares and i guess i hit 1000.  I had no clue.  so now i have 10,000  60% of my portfolio in this bad boy.  So while some are made money of of SPEX, i am getting crushed.  I do believe that I am no good at this.  I can not follow simple instructions  ( Dave i dont know how you do it, i buy and sell a littler later then you, but what a difference).   I would do better buying new cars and selling them a week later used.

1213 pm  Ok i did not want to make a new post.  So after chasing it down in the 7.30s the stock honestly said "ok Puent is out, lets go back up"  can some one please tell me why I suck so bad at this.  ATLEAST I DID NOT HAVE THE FUNDS TO SHORT IT LIKE I WANTED TO> 

Are you telling me i honestly am just that unlucky to get to work at 11 AM eastern time, and miss the SPEX buy, but arrive in time to see my 60% percent plummet and panic?  is there something with the stock market at 11?  It seems that i make most of my mistakes at that time ?

9 pm  WEll i have calmed down.  So has the stock obviously.  Back up above the line.   Bad luck once again.  Need to maintain and just keep the pace.  Never good to get set back several months of profits.  Its a good lesson to learn, DONT BE STUPID.

Hello puenthouse, mistakes like this sometimes happen, but this is the second time you make one of these (making an error at quantity when placing an order) since we talk here at 3 Stocks. Maybe you're just under too much pressure to trade stocks, man. Also, as irod says, don't watch the intraday. It's of no use, just for entertainment purposes - but it will make you lose more money than win. Everything happens at the open and at the close. That's where one should take action if needed. Ok, in certain cases it may be useful to watch the intraday, but generally it does more harm than good. So do yourself a favor: pay more attention when placing orders and less attention (or none) to intraday action (it's easier to ignore the intraday if you're well diversified).

I'll write you a private message in a moment. And hey, you're an hero 

I remember in the recent past that AS SOON AS I BUY...it goes down. Or as SOON AS I SELL...it goes up. At the time, I was at home for a spell due to an ankle operation. As it turns out, I was watching intraday trading WAY TOO MUCH. It's very bad for you! And can cause one to make rash decisions...especially for the novice.

Lesson learned: Don't watch intraday.


later...Jody

Definitely Jody.

I agree. Don't watch intraday. Especially at 10 - 11 AM, I believe some call this the "10 AM effect". Most people trade between market open and this time, so stocks usually have larger movements, then settle, then move again at the end of the day.

I also missed SPEX and was really bummed out by it. It is so hard to follow Dave's picks with the time differences, him being in Europe and all. For me the market open is at 6:30 AM, and I'm not what you'd call an early morning bird, so it's really hard on me to be up at that time (I've still managed to do it almost every day in the last 3 months.)

I love it when Dave posts his updates at around 2:00 AM my time, that way I can place my orders and sleep like a baby. I can't tell you how many times I've kicked myself for oversleeping and not reading his picks before the open. Other times I'll go to bed at 3 or 4 AM just waiting for him to post, but he posts until right before the open, and since I went to bed so late, I oversleep.

I wish we could have a standard time for the picks, that way we could be more disciplined and not have to chase them aroud. We could even have 2 times, in case Dave misses the first one we'd know for sure he'd post at the second one. I don't know, someone might have a better idea. Just tought I'd give my 2 cents.

I wish I had a standard too irod, I'm also very confused with hours here in Europe. Yesterday I was reading and writing at the Stock Picking Board until 4:30AM, looking for opportunities.

I believe the best way is for you to check your mail box at 9 AM New York time. You have time to read the updates and place your orders if you want. You haven't missed a thing if you didn't read things early, because the market was closed so nobody could use the information, right? You can simply follow 3 Stocks reading the website half an hour before the open ...

(well, that's 6 AM for you, I know it's hard, I used to wake up late too, but now I wake up at 6:15 everyday like a clock, it's pretty refreshing  )

But I see the stock trading at least $10 in no more than 2 weeks time, so I have to be in.

Do you still believe this David?

I don't know man, I wasn't expecting this fall, although fundamentals seem to be incredibly attractive, maybe something bearish is cooking behind the scenes. I have to trust the market and my plan. The stock should rebound immediately to remain bullish. If it is set to close below $7.50 I'll have to sell it, discipline is the most important thing in trading.

No matter how much you win, without discipline you'll lose it back to the market (plus more) later.

[Jimbo]

0300 AM Ok so im sick to my stomach. Had a trigger near support for 100 shares and i guess i hit 1000.  I had no clue.  so now i have 10,000  60% of my portfolio in this bad boy.  So while some are made money of of SPEX, i am getting crushed.  I do believe that I am no good at this.  I can not follow simple instructions  ( Dave i don't know how you do it, i buy and sell a littler later then you, but what a difference).   I would do better buying new cars and selling them a week later used.

puenthhouse,

I don't know if you heard about the that Japanese trader who made a similar mistake causing $224M lost in just a seconds  .

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/12/09/mizuho.error.reut/index.html


I still remember typing mistake I've done not so far ago closing a position rather then setting a stop. The funny thing is I didn't realize until I got a confirmation for the execution. You can imagine how surprised I was selling a winning position but lesson learned


BTW I hope you doing well today ( XING is up so far  )

[puenthouse]

ya that only makes it worse (4 me anyways).  all i asked for was nothing to go wrong and when i came into work it was down in the 30's where i panic sold it as you can see in the above.  Eh, i rather make this mistakes while im young, and thousands instead of later in my years with many thousdands i hope.  I just dont understand why it had to do that dip right then and there.  sure wish i made that mistake yesterday.  And that is how i know i am not good at doing this. 

[KCScott]

My thoughts about Intraday trading:

If you have a specific stock / price / plan in mind you can catch "deals" during the day.

My most recent example was CKCM a couple weeks ago, I made a mistake selling out at 23.20 and was looking for a good re-entry point.

I saw the stock drop all the way to $21 during the day. Checked and saw no news, so grabbed 1,000 shares at 21.20

As for placing stops, I still don't like them due to manipulation and swins that occur.
ANLT on Friday is a great example. It dropped from 2.75 to 2.35 within minutes of the opening taking out every stop along the way. Within 15 minutes it was back up over 3.00.

The only time I could see using stops is if you do not have access to your investments for a few days and you are dealing with an issue that is so volatile (See EYII) there is possibility of considerable loss if you do not actively manage it.

Just My Opinion.

[irod]

David, I say you give us another SPEX so puenthouse can be happy! (And so I can get in on the action this time.)

[David Randolph]

David, I say you give us another SPEX so puenthouse can be happy! (And so I can get in on the action this time.)

Lol irod, I'll try, I'll try 

puenthouse made the common mistake of taking intraday signals into account. It happens exactly when one has a larger position than it should. But it doesn't mean he's no good at this, I made that mistake sometimes too, and I don't consider myself bad at trading, or I would go and do some other thing.

XING made the traditional «intraday cut» of the support level and then closed higher and initiated a rebound on Friday. I hope this rebound continues for today (by the way puent, let XING rise, and buy another one that rises faster  ).

I'll continue with my plan of holding XING, unless the stock is set to close below $7.5.

[David Randolph]

Nice recovery from the $7.5 support level. I believe this bull move will continue, as the general market will probably rise through the end of the year, and XING will surpass the previous high of $8.54.

I'll continue holding the stock for as long as it is set to close above the $7.5 important technical support.

[David Randolph]

Oh dear XING, I was afraid this was going to happen. Nobody trusts this management, it's really the only explanation why it doesn't go up. If they were smart enough to publish EPS figures and respect US accounting standards probably the stock price would be much higher.

Anyway, I'll keep my plan of holding, unless XING is set to close below the important $7.5 support level.