XING

[David Randolph]

About a month or two ago I studied XING and thought it was very strange that the stock didn't advance. I even thought I bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio before, but I didn't.

At first sight, XING looks like the Chinese Nokia or Ericsson, but nobody believed it, I don't know why.

Yesterday the company raised guidance, and finally, the street took notice:



Nice white marubozu with volume above average. The day was technically significant, because the stock broke out of a 6 month range on the upside:



The technical target of this breakout is $10.

Fundamentally the stock is so cheap that it is hard to believe ... I even read someone write «I doubt they make cellular phones». According to Yahoo! the market cap is $133.16M. According to Market Watch it is $149.18M.

The company says it will have a net profit of more than $24M in 2005. If we consider Market Watch market cap (always consider the highest available), the trailing P/E is 6.21, and earnings are growing 60% from last year  

Maybe something's fishy here, but I don't think it is wise to dig too much at this point, at this moment the market believes, so I believe.

Yesterday's high was $8.03, probably the stock will open with a gap up, and maybe it will come back down to fill that gap, or even have a correction day. But I see the stock trading at least $10 in no more than 2 weeks time, so I have to be in.

I will buy XING for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio around today's open, 6.66% of the Portfolio as always.

[la-onda]

 
fyai:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1241.15

[David Randolph]

Wow, it seems you guys were already all over it 

Great information on that thread at the Stock Picking Board, thanks !

[David Randolph]

Palm made a deal with XING, possibly that will bring the market's attention to the undervaluation of XING: Palm Launches Treo 650 Smartphone in China

Something's got be wrong here, XING's market cap can't be just $154M, or it would be outrageously cheap. I will investigate that over the following updates.

For now everything is alright, unfortunately the stock opened with a gap up, so momentum was a bit lost. It tried to come down and close the gap, but it failed by 1 cent, which isn't a bad thing, it is a good thing when bulls compete between themselves to buy at a given value, and they can't.

The technical target of this bullish breakout is $10, I don't see this move stopping south of that. In the meantime I'll have time to dig some more inside the company's fundamentals to know if I should take profits at $10 or hold for the long term.

[shawFund]

I think that it is a big mistake to not invest in semiconductor stocks in December. For me, I am ALL IN right now.

The index made a big break-out today and many stocks in the group also did so today such as LEXR, SSTI, TRID, See the charts

[shawFund]

I am a long follower of XING. Don't be fooled by the company's numbers.

I am not totally in trust the company's management team.

First, I do not  think that PALM can get much market share in China's market.

Second, most of the phone manufacturing companies in China lost money and lost big during last three quarters but XING made big money. The margin for celler phone and normal phone manufacture  is very small and competition is very hard right now.

That is why: even XING has given many very good news releases in last few quarters,
the stock only ups one today after their news announcement, followed by returning to normal.

I am too familiar with China's companies with cooking books only for new money.

XING has done few private placements after they announced good news during last few years.

AOB did the same thing. Even I recommand AOB, IT IS ONLY for technical analysis for break-out chart pattern. It did break-out and gained 25% in one week. But they diluted their shares big and did private placement last week - their long goal to raise money.

I am sure SVA will do the same sooner or later.



We can play XING only for short term momentum purpose. Be very careful though.

[tokyopua]

I think that it is a big mistake to not invest in semiconductor stocks in December. For me, I am ALL IN right now.

The index made a big break-out today and many stocks in the group also did so today such as LEXR, SSTI, TRID, See the charts

ShawFund,

Any thoughts on TSM?  I have posted a lot about it in the TSM thread (accessed by looking at closed trades from 3SOF portfolio).  I think it breaks $10 soon, which is both technical resistance at 9.79 (its at 9.78 today) and psychological resistance at $10.

[shawFund]

I think that it is a big mistake to not invest in semiconductor stocks in December. For me, I am ALL IN right now.

The index made a big break-out today and many stocks in the group also did so today such as LEXR, SSTI, TRID, See the charts

ShawFund,

Any thoughts on TSM?  I have posted a lot about it in the TSM thread (accessed by looking at closed trades from 3SOF portfolio).  I think it breaks $10 soon, which is both technical resistance at 9.79 (its at 9.78 today) and psychological resistance at $10.

First, Big break-out for both semi index and nasdaq index today. See chart below.

As for individual semi stocks:

TSM has never been a high flying stock.

Why don't put money on good US semi company stocks. Several breaks out today.

After more than one year of strugglling, flash memory price firmed RECENTLY.
SSTI will benefit from it and it has been bassing for 4 months and is due to have a break.  LEXR also is bassing for 4 months. Both firmed an ascedning trendline as seen in prevous post.

My prediction: SSTI will be $7-$8 in few months, LEXR will be $11 in few months.

PXLW breaks out from bottom today.

TMTA gives a buying signal today and will take a position tomorrow morning.

SWKS has been in $5-$10 range since 2002 and is $5.65 today. It may double the price in few months.

ACLS is also traded $5-$10 range during the last few years. It is $5.14 as of today.
I have  been holding it since $4.13.

ATML gained 75% (from $2 -> $$3.5) in 2 months and may test $4-$5 range soon. Its fundamentals improved a lot.

AMD will reach to $30 by year end. That is my prediction few months ago.

At the begining of last year, I predicted that AMD will reach $25 by the end of 2004, its high was $24.95 in 2004. Let us find out whether I am going to make it right the second time on AMD

I have been pushing AMD SINCE THE BEGINING OF 2004 in yahoo msg board.
I saw AMD has become the tech leader in CPU fight with INTC at that time.

SNDK and FLSH may have some trouble on its price because INTC and MU have joined together and want part of pie in this field.

I have been watching ESST for more than 2 years and waiting for its turnaround. It has enough cash. The only problem is its new DVD chip. Once it can have new hot chips, I will put all money in. The price can easily gain to $10-$15.

Semi stocks are highly cyclical in nature. If they have hot chips, the price will be flying suh as FLSH, SNDK, TRID , CAMD ...

CAMD has a niche in its integrated passive component built on chips and is the market leader in that field.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your views on the semis shawFund, I think the sector will rise for more 1 week or so and then collapse, but I can be wrong. I believe the S&P500 has about a 2% upside potential here.

Considering XING and Chinese companies, I generally agree with you, but I've searched deep for information and every source says the number of outstanding shares is 18.64 million, which gives me a market cap of $151M.

That's too low for a company making these kind of products: http://www.qiaoxing.com/

I've read at the company's website that the company's annual meeting is today, December 2, 2005. Maybe some positive news will be released.

Technically, the stock broke out of a range which upper limit was $7.5. I don't want to see it closing back down below that level, or I'll be out. In the meantime I'll continue holding, as I study more on this company.

[shawFund]

Hi, David,

I took your word on the market analysis and took corresponding actions - sold all the semi stocks this morning at high.

May be the semi extended too far in too short time and need to have a correction. But I keep the long term view and the target on semi stocks.

Wait to see and in the mean time, glad to get 5% total return so far in December.

[David Randolph]

Hi, David,

I took your word on the market analysis and took corresponding actions - sold all the semi stocks this morning at high.

May be the semi extended too far in too short time and need to have a correction. But I keep the long term view and the target on semi stocks.

Wait to see and in the mean time, glad to get 5% total return so far in December.

You're doing very well shawFund, I hope it continues 

I've read at the company's website that the company's annual meeting is today, December 2, 2005. Maybe some positive news will be released.

I don't know if the meeting actually took place or not, I just wrote an e-mail to investor relations asking if there's going to be a press release or not.

Technically the stock made a higher low on Friday than on Thursday, which can be considered as a positive. I think the uptrend will soon resume, therefore I'll continue holding.

I wouldn't like to see it close back down below $7.5, though.

[puenthouse]

Jeesh, did the ENTIRE MARKET GO DOWN AT 11 AM today?

[Jimbo]

Financial Data Update :


Qiao Xing Gross Profit Up 61.5% and Income from Operations Up 144% From Those for the Same Period Last Year. The co on an un-audited management account basis, certain key financial data about its operations for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2005. Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''Net sales for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2005 increased to reach $210.8 mln, while gross profit grew 61.5% to reach $33.6 mln. Thanks to this successful reduction of the cost of sales, the gross profit ratio of the co increased from 10.4% for the first nine months of 2004 to 15.9% for the same period this year.


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051206/cntu009.html?.v=14

[shawFund]

The market only rested one day and today many stocks traded higher highs.

TRID continues its run.

The following stocks are very bullish:

AAPL
RBAK
CIEN
CRAY
ATML
PLAY
SGTL
VTSS
TIII
CNXT
MIPS
...

MANY MANY

Buying at pull-back has been a very good strategy so far. I cannot see any force to stop the run until next year.

If you check the semi index, the last few year's gain has been nill (zero!!) while housing, oil sectors have made big runs. 2006 should be the year for semi and tech sector.

Both indexes have made break-out last week.

[David Randolph]

I really can't explain why XING is this low, reading their last update of financial information, released yesterday, everything seems to be great for this company, which is undervalued.

Maybe it is just profit taking, don't forget the stock rose 65% in just about a month.

I may be accused of complacency here but I find it hard to let this one go for a small loss, it seems so undervalued at this point (maybe I'll feel better with a large loss  )

Looking at a longer term chart I see the technical breakout the stock made a couple of weeks ago is really significant.

But discipline goes a long way, stock opportunities are plenty, while capital is scarce. I need to keep the plan and follow it.

The plan is: if XING is set to close below $7.5 I'll sell it.