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Public 3SOF Boards => Stock Picking => Topic started by: saffeysite1 on June 02, 2005, 08:49:36 PM

Title: TFSM
Post by: saffeysite1 on June 02, 2005, 08:49:36 PM
Last two days heavy volume and up.   Keep on watch
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: stocky on June 02, 2005, 09:14:39 PM
Not a buy unless it clears 3.5.
Title: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: eliteG on June 09, 2005, 02:47:46 PM
TFSM

Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: eliteG on June 09, 2005, 03:08:45 PM
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=397.0

saffey posted about this one week ago  ;)

lets see how she ends the day
Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: stocky on June 09, 2005, 09:38:07 PM
Seems like this is the time :)  It needed to clear 3.5 on heavy volume.
Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: eliteG on June 13, 2005, 10:52:19 AM
not terrible but enough reason to take half
Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: eliteG on June 13, 2005, 11:51:05 AM
very unhappy with the lack of volume on a Monday on this stock...I'm outtie, +5.5%
Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: tommyt on August 03, 2005, 06:49:22 PM
Just Imagine..that's all....in @ 4.85 in AH
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: stocks2watch2 on December 15, 2005, 01:02:37 PM
TFSM, is breaking out on high volume.New 52 wk. high.
Bid 7.94
ask 7.95
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Richard on December 16, 2005, 05:54:42 AM
I've been in and out of this stock a couple times, I would have made more money just buying it and holding it, but where's the fun in that :)

I keep coming back to this stock because I generally like what this company is doing and where they are headed. Also, the macroecomic environment is more favorable for TFSM these days. A company on the verge of turning a profit? It looks that way:

(http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/3945/051216tfsm19iv.jpg)

Mmmmmm, yummy growth...

As pointed out above, making a fresh 52 week high. It broke resistance at it's previous 52-week high on unimpressive volume, then consolidated for awhile, and is now breaking from a nice little bull flag on better volume. Looks like an entry point I think:

(http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/5835/051216tfsm25la.jpg)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Leaira on December 16, 2005, 05:10:15 PM
I bought a little bit of this stock today at $7.76.  I hope it holds up for me as well as it did for you all!   :)  I'm up a few pennies on it, not a bad start considering the lousy NASDAQ performance the last couple weeks.   :P

Leaira
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Richard on December 19, 2005, 11:54:24 AM
Sweet, we're up right off the bat...
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Richard on December 21, 2005, 05:18:43 PM
Hmmmm, well today was better than yesterday...thats my mind blowing, no-holds-barred, research for today...

(http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1813/051221tfsm0cj.jpg)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: stocks2watch2 on January 17, 2006, 11:19:30 AM
Out @ 9.46. ;D  Looks a little overbought now. Good Luck if your still holding.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Terliso on February 17, 2006, 12:39:53 AM
TFSM bouncing from 50 DAY(MA) ;)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: bananajo on February 17, 2006, 05:27:36 AM
I've traded TFSM several times but now I will hold my position a little longer.  >:D
Nice price action yesterday. Earnings call is scheduled for March 2 and there was news about Presentions at Upcoming Investor Conferences.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: fous on March 26, 2006, 08:38:07 PM
This popped up on my filter over the weekend. Startin to look nice again forming an ascending triangle poised for a breakout. Nice pick saff!

Price action is in a long term uptrend wich recently consolidated near a downsloping resistence line and formed what appears to be an ascending triangle with a neckline at 9.80. We had a false breakout to new highs but fridays bull rally put us back up above the long term downsloping resistence line. A breakout of the 9.80 neckline looks like a good entry point to me :)

-fous
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: fous on March 28, 2006, 04:28:16 AM
Awsome breakout today on heavy volume. Lovin this chart.

-fous
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 28, 2006, 06:43:10 AM
Quote from: fous on March 28, 2006, 04:28:16 AM
Awsome breakout today on heavy volume. Lovin this chart.

-fous

Looks good, fous.  Applause to you and to Wrangler for his post on TFSM on The Technical Analysis Board: The Ascending Triangle folder.

TFSM has had two re-tests of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Both were successful, within one penny on each occasion.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: fous on March 28, 2006, 09:42:26 AM
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 28, 2006, 06:43:10 AM



Looks good, fous.  Applause to you and to Wrangler for his post on TFSM on The Technical Analysis Board: The Ascending Triangle folder.

TFSM has had two re-tests of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Both were successful, within one penny on each occasion.

Thanks Melf, Great to see you back :)

I bought 480 shares this morning at 10.39

-fous
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: jorgegr on March 28, 2006, 10:31:25 AM
Hello Fous:

Any comments on AMRN???      Did you buy this one???

Thx

jorgegr
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: calven on March 28, 2006, 10:11:15 PM
Also bought some TFSM at 9.99 and 10.00... see how this one shakes out
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 29, 2006, 02:00:37 AM
I'm with ya, bought @10.12! :)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: calven on March 29, 2006, 10:24:18 AM
We probably bought in a little high but I see strong support from 9.75 -9.90 - some buyers in there....


Entry - 9.99 and 10.00 fills at each
Stop Limit - 9.50

GL all!
cal  >:D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 29, 2006, 10:58:38 AM
Bought TFSM at 9.755, at the gap fill.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: calven on March 29, 2006, 07:43:08 PM
Whats your target???

Thanks,
cal
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: fous on March 29, 2006, 08:28:08 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 29, 2006, 10:58:38 AM
Bought TFSM at 9.755, at the gap fill.

Great entry today MElf(applauds)

Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 07:43:08 PM
Whats your target???

Thanks,
cal

Measuring a target from the ascending triangle that i see formed here with a neckline of 9.80, i see a technical target of 12.64.

Im generally happy with todays price action. PPS reteced down just between the neckline at 9.80 and the ascending trendline. Then the bulls took control again and formed a Doji candle which is a sign that the bears have lost control to continue a retracement from here. A white candle tomorrow will confirm this and be a bullish sign of higher prices to come.

My current stop is at 9.65 which is the cross of the long term downsloping trendline and the short term ascending trendline.

-fous
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 30, 2006, 04:18:48 AM
Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 10:24:18 AM
I see strong support from 9.75 -9.90 - some buyers in there....

Nice job on that support, Calven.  The low was your 9.75 exactly.  Applause.

Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 07:43:08 PM
Whats your target???
Thanks,
cal

I've got 11.12-11.40  IN PLAY off the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

fous,

Thanks, and thanks for analysis last night.  Applause.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 30, 2006, 03:45:38 PM
TFSM doing fine today!

Fous see's a technical target of 12.64 based on the ascending triangle, Melf_Elf has 11.12 and 11.40 in play based on the symmetrical triangle!
Breakout of which triangle is the most 'reliable' to follow or ...?
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 03:53:57 AM
Quote from: Se7en on March 30, 2006, 03:45:38 PM
TFSM doing fine today!

Se7en,

Yeah, nice day yesterday.  I liked the fact that TFSM scored a new high for the day in the late afternoon, and that it closed near its high.

Quote
Fous see's a technical target of 12.64 based on the ascending triangle, Melf_Elf has 11.12 and 11.40 in play based on the symmetrical triangle!
Breakout of which triangle is the most 'reliable' to follow or ...?

Unfortunately, we aren't going to know which (if either, at all) was the most "reliable" until after the fact.  Keep in mind that targets are "what we're aiming for," based on how we view the chart, and technicians differ on that, which is fine.

Technical analysis isn't an exact science, so we're trying to "take our best shot" at estimating targets, based on patterns, trendlines, volume, etc., while considering any indicators that we find helpful, like MACD, relative strength, etc.

Sometimes the target doesn't make.  Sometimes it makes almost exactly.  Sometimes the target is exceeded.  As we know, there simply aren't any guarantees.

That's why it's very important to plan the trade, and manage it as best we can, once we've derived our targets.   Try to set up a good risk: reward ratio, and use a stop in case, "What if my target doesn't make at all?"

On this trade, for example, I entered at the 9.75 gap fill, and my initial stop was a print below 9.19 (see chart), which was the low after the two successful re-tests of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, prior to the rally to the high of 10.614.

If I got stopped out on a print of 9.18, I would have lost 5.9% from my 9.755 entry.

If the low end of my 11.12 and 11.40 targets gets MADE (11.12), the gain is 14%, so the risk:reward is better than 1:2, which is fine.  And, as trade progresses, the risk: reward can improve as we raise the stop.

Now that TFSM has rallied, and I can see that the gap fill at 9.75 was the low on Wednesday, I now can raise my stop to break even, barring a gap down below 9.75, in which case I'd lose some.

Technically, as far as I'm concerned, there isn't any reason that is valid for me to continue to hold the stock if it goes back down there (9.75).  The gap is filled.  That work is done.

Additionally, the uptrend line (dotted red line) off the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle comes in today, March 31, at 9.817.  So, if we should go back down and break 9.817, and also break Wednesday's low of 9.75, I'm not interested in being long this stock because I don't know how far down it wants to go. 

As the chart stands, it's telling me that 9.75-9.817 "should be" support, and if that isn't support, I want out, and I'll be out a break even, or near break even.  So, my risk:reward has improved greatly.  I stand to gain much more on the upside than I am now willing to risk on the downside, now that the stock has rallied.

I don't want to turn a winner into a loser.  I'm raising my stop to a tick below 9.75, but I'll probably sell a little before that if I see the up trendline (dotted red line) get broken.

On the upside, we want to watch the rising trendline connecting the highs (solid red).  That comes in today, March 31, at 10.692.  If TFSM rallies to, or near there, then sells off, it would suggest that we need to be very watchful, to see if the Symmetrical Triangle pattern is "morphing" (changing) into a Bearish Risiing Wedge.

A Bearish Rising Wedge has converging rising trendlines.  In other words, the trendlines eventually will meet, or "converge."  That pattern often is a terminal pattern (end of the rally), and the bearishness is confirmed when the lower up trendline (solid blue line)  is broken to the downside.

So, we especially don't want to see TFSM get stopped at that upper (red) trendline, and then see what "should be" support at 9.75 - 9.817 get taken out to the downside.  It would suggest that we might be going back down to re-visit the Symmetrical Triangle breakout area.

Sorry for the long explanation, but now that we know what my targets are and what fous' target is, we want to manage the trade and be vigilant for anything that suggests to us that "what we're aiming for" (targets)  might not be what the stock has in mind.

Good luck, Se7en!  Hopefully, we'll all make some $$$.  So far, so good  ;)















Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 05:07:44 AM
Thx for the explanation Melf Elf, very interesting!!! :)  <applaud>
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 06:10:02 AM
You're welcome, se7en.

I've drawn on the chart an example of I mean about being vigilant, and managing the trade.  This is what we don't want to see.

For today's trading, I've drawn a Doji Star Hangman, the high of which is smack on that top trendline (solid red).

For Monday, I've drawn a bearish candlestick that closed at 10.20, retracing MORE than 50% of yesterday's nice white candlestick.

The 3-Day pattern that I've drawn is called a Bearish Evening Star pattern, one of the most bearish patterns in the candlesticks.  That doesn't mean that TSFM would "have to" go down, but with the failure at the top trendline (solid red) and a bearish 3-day pattern, I'd take the money and run, and wouldn't wait for my 9.75 stop to get hit.

I certainly don't foresee anything dire like this occurring.  Just wanted to give you an example of what I mean about being vigiliant, and how, although we have bullish targets IN PLAY, there are times when we might want to abandon a trade, based on what we see as the chart progresses each day.

Targets are "what we're aiming for," but subsequent trading after targets are IN MADE might contravene our bullish outlook.

All of that said, I'd like to see TFSM rally through that top trendline (solid red), which is at 10.692 for today.  We don't have to do that today, but I'd like to rule out the possibility of TFSM "morphing" (changing) into a Bearish Rising Wedge.





Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 07:52:34 AM
Thx again, very informing! Now i know where i'll have to keep an eye on! :)
Good luck to us! :D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 08:10:19 AM
Zacks Buy List Highlights: 24/7 Real Media, Inc., Airgas, Inc., BG Group PLC, and FirstFed Financial Corp.
Mar 31, 2006 6:00:00 AM
Copyright Business Wire 2006
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 31, 2006--

Zacks.com releases the latest list of Zacks Rank Buy Stocks. Everyday on Zacks.com, four stocks are selected based on how well they match the criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum and Value. The four Zacks Rank Buy stocks highlighted today are 24/7 Real Media, Inc. (Nasdaq:TFSM), Airgas, Inc. (NYSE:ARG), BG Group PLC (NYSE:BRG), and FirstFed Financial Corp. (NYSE:FED).

Stocks ranked #1 (Strong Buy) by Zacks have produced an average annual return of +33% since inception in 1988. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained 43.8% while the S&P 500 tumbled 37.6%. To see the full Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List, or the rank for any other stock, visit: http://at.zacks.com/?id=88

Here is a synopsis of today's Zacks Rank Buy Stocks:

Aggressive Growth - 24/7 Real Media, Inc. (Nasdaq:TFSM)
24/7 Real Media, Inc. exceeded earnings estimates in three out of the past four quarters. Five analysts raised their numbers for 2006. Over the past 30 days, estimates have increased 6.3% to 34 cents per share. The stock is cheap despite recently hitting new 52-week highs. TFSM is trading at about 22x next year's estimates, well below the long-term growth rate of 35%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.63.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 09:53:16 AM
Quote from: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 08:10:19 AM
Here is a synopsis of today's Zacks Rank Buy Stocks:

Aggressive Growth - 24/7 Real Media, Inc. (Nasdaq:TFSM)
24/7 Real Media, Inc. exceeded earnings estimates in three out of the past four quarters. Five analysts raised their numbers for 2006. Over the past 30 days, estimates have increased 6.3% to 34 cents per share. The stock is cheap despite recently hitting new 52-week highs. TFSM is trading at about 22x next year's estimates, well below the long-term growth rate of 35%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.63.


Se7en,

Thanks for that information!  Applause.  The technicals and the fundamentals agree, which is good.

Quote
Stocks ranked #1 (Strong Buy) by Zacks have produced an average annual return of +33% since inception in 1988

That's a good record!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 10:00:42 AM
TFSM rallied beyond 10.692 to 10.80 on good volume but than sold off back to the 10.50's!
If i understand it right, we need a close above 10.692 to be 'safe', what we saw this morning isn't enough?!

edit: selling off now > 10.32  :(
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 11:12:22 AM
Quote from: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 10:00:42 AM
TFSM rallied beyond 10.692 to 10.80 on good volume but than sold off back to the 10.50's!
If i understand it right, we need a close above 10.692 to be 'safe', what we saw this morning isn't enough?!

edit: selling off now > 10.32  :(


Se7en,

We got a Shooting Star candlestick at the open (10-Minute Chart).  The open was 10.55, we ran up to 10.80, then closed that 10-Minute bar at 10.57, so we had a long upper wick, and the open and close were nearly identical.

A Shooting Star after an uptrend suggests a reversal, which we got.

We have a gap to fill from yesterday's open.  The gap is 10.08 to 10.15.  I'd like to see TFSM fill that gap, or partially fill it, and hold.  10.00 would be okay.  Below 10.00 starts to be a "nail biter," as far as 9.75-9.817 support holding.

If that breaks, we could go down to re-test the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, as I explained this morning, and the stock still could have a bullish outcome later on.  Personally, I don't want to ride it down.  I'll sell a break of the 9.75-9.81 support area, and look to re-enter lower.

So far, the low is 10.19, so we're near yesterday's 10.08 - 10.15 gap.  We'll see how it does here.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 03:48:27 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 06:10:02 AM
For today's trading, I've drawn a Doji Star Hangman,

I shouldn't have drawn that Dojo Star Hangman example.  I think I jinxed us; it looks like that's what we're going to get for today's candlestick, darn it.

Quote
although we have bullish targets IN PLAY, there are times when we might want to abandon a trade, based on what we see as the chart progresses each day.

That's what I'm going to do here.  I'll sell into the close, and look to repurchase TFSM next week, if I can. 

Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on March 31, 2006, 03:56:45 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 29, 2006, 10:58:38 AM
Bought TFSM at 9.755, at the gap fill.

Sold TFSM at 10.52.  Gain: 7.8%
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on March 31, 2006, 04:17:10 PM
Nice quick gain Melf Elf! I think i'll also sell on Monday ...
What's your opinion on TMTA? tia
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 03, 2006, 09:50:20 AM
Still in with what I picked up at 9.85...hoping to squeeze a little more out of it  >:D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 03, 2006, 03:37:45 PM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 03, 2006, 09:50:20 AM
Still in with what I picked up at 9.85...hoping to squeeze a little more out of it  >:D

nutsterrt,

TFSM is acting much as it did on Friday: a good start this morning, but it hasn't held the gains.

For awhile this afternoon, it was looking like a Bearish Inverted Hangman, then in the chart below, a Bearish Engulfing pattern, and at its current price of 10.54, it's looking like another Bearish Doji Star, like Friday.  We'll see how it closes. 

Good luck with your trade!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on April 03, 2006, 04:41:41 PM
I'm still hanging on, thought of selling and buying TMTA instead but didn't do it.
Let's see what tomorrow brings ...
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 05, 2006, 08:17:10 AM
Yeah...might be unloading day  ::)

Out at 10.53. Good luck all!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on April 05, 2006, 11:12:54 AM
me2, out @10.51 for a small gain!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 05, 2006, 11:39:14 AM
nutsteert and Se7en,

Good going.  Applauds.  TFSM is testing 10.18-10.19 recent support now.  Looks toppy if that breaks.  The low so far today is 10.20.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 05, 2006, 12:02:08 PM
Thanks. If it shows support, would you consider it a candidate for buyback?
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 05, 2006, 12:19:04 PM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 05, 2006, 12:02:08 PM
Thanks. If it shows support, would you consider it a candidate for buyback?

nutsterrt,

I don't like the 3 Doji Star candles and the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge (dotted red line, connecting the tops).  I'm going to pass on it.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 05, 2006, 12:21:00 PM
Applaud for your input...if I could. Trying to learn TA, and your analysis of this security has been quite helpful. Thanks!!  ;D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 05, 2006, 12:31:25 PM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 05, 2006, 12:21:00 PM
Applaud for your input...if I could. Trying to learn TA, and your analysis of this security has been quite helpful. Thanks!! ;D

nutsterrt,

You're welcome.  Glad if it helped. 

BTW, Relative Strength has me cautious, too.  We have a DOUBLE negative divergence on the last two rallies in the stock.  That means that, as TFSM rallied to successively "higher higher," relative strength made successively "lower lows," not confirming the new price highs in the stock. 

Stocks can have negative divergences and continue higher, but it's a sign of weakness, so I'd rather pass on it, even though we still have a couple of upside targets IN PLAY.  Targets don't always make.  They're just "what we aim for."
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Se7en on April 05, 2006, 12:40:51 PM
THx for the info Melf, what's your tought about TMTA? tia
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 05, 2006, 02:42:02 PM
Quote from: Se7en on April 05, 2006, 12:40:51 PM
THx for the info Melf, what's your tought about TMTA? tia

Sorry, Se7en, I'm not following that one.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 07, 2006, 11:55:18 AM
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 05, 2006, 11:39:14 AM
nutsteert and Se7en,

Good going.  Applauds.  TFSM is testing 10.18-10.19 recent support now.  Looks toppy if that breaks.  The low so far today is 10.20.

Basis the daily chart, the Four Beaish Doji Stars, yesterday's Bearish Engulfing pattern, and the DOUBLE negative divergence in the RSI that we looked at mid-week weren't looking so hot.

10.18-10.20 support broke this morning, and TFSM sank pretty quickly to 10.00.  It's now rallying off there to re-test the breakdown, currently at BID 10.14...ASK 10.15.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 07, 2006, 12:08:06 PM
Picked some up at 10.10 with a fairly tight stop limit on the sell. We'll see what happens ;)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 09, 2006, 06:13:07 PM
I'm out of TFSM at 10.52.  Three things that I view as short-term bearish since my exit:

1.  The Bearish Doji Stars at the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge, followed by a Bearish Engulfing pattern.

2.  Friday's break of the up trendline off low, prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

3. Friday's break of of 10.18-10.20 support, basis the intraday chart (posted above).

What I like about TFSM:

1. It broke out on good volume, and went to 10.00 (we'll make a note of that price).

2. It re-tested the breakout, and nailed it exactly, then rallied and took out 10.00 on very good volume.

3. On the next selloff, 10.00, which "should have" acted as support, didn't act as support.  It was for a purpose: to fill the 9.75 gap from March 24.  TFSM filled that gap exactly, which is where I entered the stock (one of the few times I've caught an exact low).

4. TFSM then rallied to those Doji Star highs.

5. On the Friday's break of the up trendline (dotted red line), and and break of 10.18-10.20 intraday support, TFSM this time bounced off 10.00 exactly.

"Former resistance "should" act as support.  It did.

6. Friday's candle was a Bullish Hammer "wannabe."  The wick, or tail, wasn't two times longer than the "real body" (the black part of the candle), as it should be, be it's reasonbly close, and "explained away" by the fact that the stock closed at 10.18, right at broken 10.18-10.20 support.

We don't want to do much "explaining away," or making excuses for a stock, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt, since the overall behavior has been bullish. 

But, it's got to prove itself.

How do we know if "it's proving itself?"

For one thing, some of the technical indicators are "in the slot," so to speak.  They're testing support, and ready to rock and roll if TFSM can get its act together, and rally here.  We'll look at a couple of those in the following posts.

We want to see:

1. TFSM get back above broken support (10.18-10.20, basis the intraday chart).

2. TFSM take out the "buy pivot," which is Friday's high of 10.40.  With the technical indicators "in the slot," or, "in position," as they are, a print of 10.41 is considered to be a "buy pivot."

3. Since that up trendline (dotted red line) is right there, at about 10.41 for Monday's trading, we don't want to see it print 10.41...10.42, and then fail badly.  We want to see something bullish, like a close back above 10.18-10.20, and see it have a decent day.

If it can do that this week, TFSM has a chance of making the bullish targets of 11.12-11.40 that still are IN PLAY.

MACD and RSIs coming up next...

Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 09, 2006, 06:16:42 PM
MACD is coming back "into the slot," ready to tag its signal line, and kick higher on any rally.  It's got some more room to do that early this week, if TFSM "hangs about" for a couple/few days.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 09, 2006, 06:25:04 PM
Although we had TWO negative divergences in the 13/21 RSIs, telegraphing "possible" short-term weakness (and, we got it on Friday), indications of a selloff isn't necessarily a SELL, unless we see something more than short-term chart damage.

We had short-term chart damage on Friday.  The break of the up trendline (dotted red line), and the break of 10.18-10.20 support.   But,  nothing more than that...so far.

The 13/21 RSIs have come into synchronicity (the reading are nearly identical).  The 34/55RSIs still are "above" synchroncity, so they've "got some room," like the MACD.

ANY positive close will give us a bounce higher, out of synchronicty.  That's a plus, but we want to see Friday's 10.40 high get taken out to the upside.  Not necessarily on Monday, but SOON.

Good luck to those of you still long.  I'm thinkin' about it.   ???  ::)  ???

Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 09, 2006, 11:00:41 PM
You know you want to. Like I said, I got out at 10.53 a few days ago, bought back in at 10.10 on Friday  :D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 10, 2006, 09:50:19 AM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 09, 2006, 11:00:41 PM
You know you want to.

Get thee behind me, you devil!  >:D  ;D  >:D

Yeah, I did want to, but TFSM couldn't get above 10.18-10.20 broken support this morning, and it's taken out 10.00, making a "lower low," after failing at resistance.  That's what I didn't want to see, darn it.

I'll pass.  :(

Good luck, nutsterrt, and to those long!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 12, 2006, 04:09:05 PM
Melf-
What's your take on today's price action?

(http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TFSM&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=t62905740376&r=2428)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 12, 2006, 04:42:15 PM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 12, 2006, 04:09:05 PM
Melf-
What's your take on today's price action?

nutsterrt,

I liked it a lot. 

Inverse H&S breakout late this morning.  Neckline was 9.96.  That pattern gave it some strength to get back above 10.00 resistance.

Neckline: 9.96
Head: 9.57

9.96 - 9.57 = 0.39 points added to 9.96 neckline...Target: 10.35 MADE in the final half hour.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 13, 2006, 11:01:11 AM
Thanks again for your insight...*applaud*...now that I can!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 19, 2006, 09:53:47 AM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 13, 2006, 11:01:11 AM
Thanks again for your insight...*applaud*...now that I can!

nutsterrt,

lol.  Thanks.  The 11.12 target MADE this morning.  :)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 19, 2006, 10:12:11 AM
nutsterrt,

The 11.40 target also MADE.  ;)
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 19, 2006, 10:58:55 AM
Melf--
And then some!  :D  If you picked up at 10.10, how would you play it at this point? Think she has some room to run? Thanks!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 19, 2006, 11:23:33 AM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 19, 2006, 10:58:55 AM
Melf--
And then some!  :D  If you picked up at 10.10, how would you play it at this point?

nutsterrt,

I sell when targets get MADE. 

You've got a 15% gain at the current price of 11.65, so I'd suggest locking in some of that gain.  Maybe half?  Up to you.  Then you're guaranteed a winner, (barring a horrible gap down, of course), and you can relax and see what happens.  Use a trailing stop on the rest, or a "break even" of your 10.10 entry, then you still have an overall gain on the trade.

Quote
Think she has some room to run? Thanks!

Your guess is as good as mine, and I mean that sincerely.  Sometimes, stocks go much higher after a target is MADE...sometimes that's a top.

You might watch the 11.90 - 12.45 area.  Those were the 2003-2004 highs.  Might be some resistance there.

Good luck!
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on April 19, 2006, 12:19:51 PM
We're on the same page  ;D Looking to unload 50-75% at some point today, once I think it's peaked for the afternoon, that is.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on April 20, 2006, 10:01:03 AM
Quote from: nutsterrt on April 19, 2006, 12:19:51 PM
We're on the same page  ;D Looking to unload 50-75% at some point today, once I think it's peaked for the afternoon, that is.

Good move.  Applause.  "Take profits when targets get MADE." 

TFSM is down this morning on the Oppenheimer downgrade from Buy to Neutral.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on May 03, 2006, 12:12:30 PM
Well...I just can't seem to leave it alone. Picked it up again (after selling 75% @ 11.47)...this time at 10.15. Enjoyed today's move thus far...Melf, any updates?  ;D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on May 04, 2006, 09:43:01 AM
Well...here's a lesson in not paying attention  ::). It seems TFSM posted earnings yesterday after the close. Dooooown she goes :o
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on May 04, 2006, 10:14:36 AM
Decided to "catch the falling knife" and double up at 9.70. Now I pray  :D
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on May 04, 2006, 10:43:37 AM
Quote from: nutsterrt on May 04, 2006, 10:14:36 AM
Decided to "catch the falling knife" and double up at 9.70.

nutsterrt,

Bad Boy.  Baaa-ad BOY!!

Quote
Now I pray  :D

You better pray, now that the devil has you in his grasp.   ;D  >:D

Kidding aside, TFSM broke below its recent low, at 9.96, it broke below the up trendlline, and it now has made a "lower high, and a lower low" on this morning's break below 9.96.  The break also is on very heavy volume.  TFSM already has traded more than its 100 day average volume.

TFSM currently is BID 9.96...ASK 9.97, re-testing that break below 9.96 support.

This trade could work out, and I hope that it does, but you want to be careful doubling down in situations like this, my friend, when support is getting broken, especially on that kind of volume. 

Good luck!

Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 07:39:37 AM
The earnings gap at 10.30 was filled.  TFSM is back below 9.96 and back below the up trendline off the February low.   

Key support is the neckline, at 9.57.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 02:36:59 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 07:39:37 AM
Key support is the neckline, at 9.57.

The 9.57 neckline broke on some volume.  Target: 7.35 is IN PLAY.

TFSM currently is BID 9.62...ASK 9.63, above the break, but the target is IN PLAY any time TFSM is back below the 9.57 break.

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 04, 2006, 10:43:37 AM
This trade could work out, and I hope that it does, but you want to be careful doubling down in situations like this, my friend, when support is getting broken, especially on that kind of volume. 

Good luck!

nutsterrt,

Be careful here on the neckline break with that double down, buddy.
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on May 11, 2006, 02:59:52 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 02:36:59 PM
The 9.57 neckline broke on some volume.  Target: 7.35 is IN PLAY.

TFSM closed yesterday below the 9.57 neckline of the H&S Top.  It's down today on 3X average 100 day volume, currently at BID 8.88...ASK 8.90
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nutsterrt on May 17, 2006, 08:01:31 PM
Oy vey...I've still got it. I'm happy that it hasn't taken quite the hit that some others have in the last few days...I'm hoping that it moves up whenever the rest of the market gets around to it  ::)  Say a prayer  :'(
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Melf Elf on June 08, 2006, 02:06:05 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 02:36:59 PM
The 9.57 neckline broke on some volume.  Target: 7.35 is IN PLAY.

TFSM was a nice short on that break of the 9.57 neckline on May 10, one day before just about everything else NASDAQ-related started breaking down.  I thought that the 7.35 target would get MADE today, but the low so far only is 7.45.  Close enough to cover.

TFSM currently is BID 7.54...ASK 7.55
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: AARACH on September 17, 2006, 05:47:06 PM
OK GENTLEMEN IT TIME TO START YOUR ENGINES.

TAKE THE INSTITUTION PLUS THE INSIDER AND SUBTRACT FROM FLOAT.

SEEMS YOU HAVE LESS SHARE LEFT THAN THE SHORT INTEREST.  MKT HAS BEEN MOVEING  UP ON VERY LOW VOL WHICH IS GREAT AS IT INDICATES SHORTS ARE STILL THERE.

I EXPECT MKT TO TAKE OUT 52 WEEK HIGH IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

WHEN WILL THE SHORTS COVER-GOOD QUESTION.  BUT A BIG SHORT SQUEEZE IS COMING INTO PLAY. SQUEEZE NUMBER IS ALMOST 60 A/O CLOSE FRIDAY 9/15.

ANY BULLISH NEWS WILL BE MORE THAN WELCOME.

GOOD LUCK THIS COMING WEEK.

AARACH
Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: Lucas Scott on April 16, 2007, 02:57:36 AM
TFSM is in play now with the Google acquisition of Doubleclick. Microsoft and Yahoo lost the bidding war for Doubleclick, and now TFSM, AQNT, and VCLK are possible acquisition candidates. All three up AH on Friday after the Google announcement. In TFSM's favor is that it's the cheapest target in terms of market cap, it has a forward PE of 12 compared to 30 for VCLK and AQNT, and it has a strong international presence.  The weekly chart shows a bullish flag has been forming for the past year. Buyout speculation may drive a breakout. Will post again if I buy.
Title: Re: TFSM - maybe its time
Post by: Lucas Scott on April 16, 2007, 09:57:30 AM
In at the open $9.12
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: setravis on April 25, 2007, 09:00:33 AM
Mover in the pre-market.......

24/7 REAL MEDIA INC (NasdaqGM:TFSM) Delayed quote data 

Pre-Market: $9.90  +$1.43 (16.88%) as of 8:35am ET on 04/25/07



Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: setravis on April 25, 2007, 09:06:35 AM
"TFSM" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   ;D                                               
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.     ;)                                         
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.      :( ::)                           
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$   ;)         

Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: nexta on May 01, 2007, 09:45:06 AM
goes up in premarket - news with MSFT

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/technology/microsoft_realmedia/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
Title: Re: TFSM
Post by: Lucas Scott on May 18, 2007, 01:55:53 AM
TFSM acquired by WPP Group @ $11.75/shr

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070517/20070517005424.html?.v=1

I'm out at 11.70