TFSM

[Melf Elf]

Melf-
What's your take on today's price action?

nutsterrt,

I liked it a lot. 

Inverse H&S breakout late this morning.  Neckline was 9.96.  That pattern gave it some strength to get back above 10.00 resistance.

Neckline: 9.96
Head: 9.57

9.96 - 9.57 = 0.39 points added to 9.96 neckline...Target: 10.35 MADE in the final half hour.

[nutsterrt]

Thanks again for your insight...*applaud*...now that I can!

[Melf Elf]

Thanks again for your insight...*applaud*...now that I can!

nutsterrt,

lol.  Thanks.  The 11.12 target MADE this morning. 

[Melf Elf]

nutsterrt,

The 11.40 target also MADE. 

[nutsterrt]

Melf--
And then some!    If you picked up at 10.10, how would you play it at this point? Think she has some room to run? Thanks!

[Melf Elf]

Melf--
And then some!    If you picked up at 10.10, how would you play it at this point?

nutsterrt,

I sell when targets get MADE. 

You've got a 15% gain at the current price of 11.65, so I'd suggest locking in some of that gain.  Maybe half?  Up to you.  Then you're guaranteed a winner, (barring a horrible gap down, of course), and you can relax and see what happens.  Use a trailing stop on the rest, or a "break even" of your 10.10 entry, then you still have an overall gain on the trade.

Think she has some room to run? Thanks!

Your guess is as good as mine, and I mean that sincerely.  Sometimes, stocks go much higher after a target is MADE...sometimes that's a top.

You might watch the 11.90 - 12.45 area.  Those were the 2003-2004 highs.  Might be some resistance there.

Good luck!

[nutsterrt]

We're on the same page  Looking to unload 50-75% at some point today, once I think it's peaked for the afternoon, that is.

[Melf Elf]

We're on the same page  Looking to unload 50-75% at some point today, once I think it's peaked for the afternoon, that is.

Good move.  Applause.  "Take profits when targets get MADE." 

TFSM is down this morning on the Oppenheimer downgrade from Buy to Neutral.

[nutsterrt]

Well...I just can't seem to leave it alone. Picked it up again (after selling 75% @ 11.47)...this time at 10.15. Enjoyed today's move thus far...Melf, any updates? 

[nutsterrt]

Well...here's a lesson in not paying attention  . It seems TFSM posted earnings yesterday after the close. Dooooown she goes

[nutsterrt]

Decided to "catch the falling knife" and double up at 9.70. Now I pray 

[Melf Elf]

Decided to "catch the falling knife" and double up at 9.70.

nutsterrt,

Bad Boy.  Baaa-ad BOY!!

Now I pray 

You better pray, now that the devil has you in his grasp.    

Kidding aside, TFSM broke below its recent low, at 9.96, it broke below the up trendlline, and it now has made a "lower high, and a lower low" on this morning's break below 9.96.  The break also is on very heavy volume.  TFSM already has traded more than its 100 day average volume.

TFSM currently is BID 9.96...ASK 9.97, re-testing that break below 9.96 support.

This trade could work out, and I hope that it does, but you want to be careful doubling down in situations like this, my friend, when support is getting broken, especially on that kind of volume. 

Good luck!

[Melf Elf]

The earnings gap at 10.30 was filled.  TFSM is back below 9.96 and back below the up trendline off the February low.   

Key support is the neckline, at 9.57.

[Melf Elf]

Key support is the neckline, at 9.57.

The 9.57 neckline broke on some volume.  Target: 7.35 is IN PLAY.

TFSM currently is BID 9.62...ASK 9.63, above the break, but the target is IN PLAY any time TFSM is back below the 9.57 break.

This trade could work out, and I hope that it does, but you want to be careful doubling down in situations like this, my friend, when support is getting broken, especially on that kind of volume. 

Good luck!

nutsterrt,

Be careful here on the neckline break with that double down, buddy.

[Melf Elf]

The 9.57 neckline broke on some volume.  Target: 7.35 is IN PLAY.

TFSM closed yesterday below the 9.57 neckline of the H&S Top.  It's down today on 3X average 100 day volume, currently at BID 8.88...ASK 8.90