This is a nice play in the specality metals industry. Gov., Defense, Aerospace markets. Company making money hand-over-fist in it's Titanium alloys. Highly cyclically market with this being the 3rd year of a 7yr year run. The Boeing 787 Dreamliner will ensure Titanium demand remains strong starting in 2007. Company expanding Titanium capacity with 100 million dollars of capital investments. I'm in at $41.33. I'm also a Titanium Engineer---this is a nice long-term play for those wanting to wait 1-2 years. Even a nice 6 month play
Check out great chart and high volume of late. Good Luck!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ATI
Edit of the Thread Heading, "ATI, Crammers 2006 stock-of-year"
Messages like these in the thread heading become out of date as time passes.
Thank You,
setravis
If I recall correctly, Cramer said he was staking his reputation on this stock, and he also might have said something along the lines of this stock being like his Google of 2006. I got in a few days after he said that and have enjoyed a nice gain also, so I am with you on this one.
I am also thinking of picking at his other aerospace materials play, HXL that he mentioned last night. I think both are better ways to play the aerospace cycle than BA since I keep getting nervous that Airbus has to start winning some orders *sometime* soon... but both companies need the raw materials to build the planes.
BTW, what exactly does a Titanium Engineer do if you dont mind my asking?
Howdie, Not sure how i feel about Cramer yet? He does seem to do well for the most part.
Any TA thoughts on the gap up last week between mid 44 and mid 46 at the earning??? I have read over and over that gaps always get filled... perhaps that is a good target buy price? Especially with the RSI14 over 80 we should see a pull back sometime soon
Also do not miss the boat on cement, CX . raw materials and construction demand should continue to drive up the cement companies, if anyone sees a better value in the cement sector could they post it, i have watched CX from 51 without a significant pull back in 3 months!
Cheers Joe
ATI up $2.75 today.
I got in on HXL about 8-months ago after a presentation by Boeing Phantom Works Engineers on the rising use of graphite composites for commercial airplanes (New Dreamliner 787). Boeing currently uses a considerable amount more of these materials than in Airbus designs. But Airbus will come around due to the weight advantage. I agree, this is a nice long-term play. Especially when Dreamliners start taking-off and the spare parts side of the business picks up.
I'm a Ti Product Engineer for a Mill. I basically take an 18,000 lb. ingot and convert it down into usable product forms (rolled bar, billet, slabs) depending on customer specification/design. A forge or machine shop will then make a final part (ex. turbine blade or disk). I oversee and create all the MFG. instructions for the conversion (hot-working, machining, and testing). I work hand-in-hand with GE, Snecma, Rolls (Engine makers) and forge shops like (Wyman, Laddish, Boehler, etc.).
In regards to the gap between $44-46 being filled; I got a feeling this one is just going to go higher. Looks like a nice base around $50. ATI by many investors is considered a Commodity Steel Company (Usually PE 8-14). However, today ATI is moving into the direction of a specialty metals company (PE's of 21 or greater-check TIE for an example and the explosion they have had). With a PE of 14-15, ATI is way undervalued and I think the PR that Crammer has given this stock along with the great financial #'s will make for a nice 1-2 year run-up.
Good Luck!
If ATI does half as well as Cramer's RHEO pick we'll all be broke by Christmas! >:D
But seriously, the chart looks good. Metal - thanks for your analysis on this stock.
Looks like support was found at the gap price of $46. Kudos joet on the call above.
Candle stick chart shows the trend. Look for uptrend confirmation with heavy volume and increase in pps tomorrow AM.
could be steady up-tick past resistance at $54. IMO heading north of $60 with this one.
http://www.litwick.com/cgi/chart.cgi
Broke through 52-week high resistance with heavy volume today. ($55 pps now)
Hope you loaded up at $46 a couple of weeks ago when it dipped.
No resistance above; should reach $60+ soon.
Watch for this one to hit $60-70 range, split, and then head North again (Same pattern as TIE)
Low PE with rising revenues and high demand for their products; do your DD on this one.
Closed at $61.50 today.
Up 41% on the year.
Additional $25 million in capital expansion for Titanium products....this in addition to the $100 million already in process. (Check Yahoo News)
Increase revenues in Titanium products will be realized in the 4th quarter into 2007 (Huge margins will follow as Ti is extremely HOT!)
With the additional Ti capacity; ATI may take the lead spot for World's #1 Ti supplier.
2005 #'s
Timet = 27.8 million mill lbs.
ATI = 19.8 million mill lbs.; (This does not include rolled bar product, add another 5 million lbs.)
Conclusion----ATI no longer a commodity Steel company. Investors catching on!!
GLTY!!!
Hi Metal Head,
Applauded you today for the many posts here giving your inside industry perspecitve! Thanks!
I figured given all your great fundamental analysis, it was time for us to look at a chart of this stock ;D
First we can look at the chart on stockta.com, and despite the bearish engulfing candle on Friday, just about every other indicator is bullish.
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=ATI&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock
Its also an overall 96% buy at barchart.com, the only thing keeping it from being 100% is the short erm 80% rating, which makes sense given the recent candle, etc. We may see a few more down days to come. But how low could they go? Lets look at the chart... so far the 13ema provides good support, and currently its aligning well with the most aggressive trendline I have drawn. Also, given the three candlesticks around end of March/beginning of April we see a likely support intersecting with the trendline at exactly $62.5.
The Force indicator is on a downtick, if it goes below the centerline and the price is around support this might be a good time for entry for anyone who has been watching the stock. As long as the 13ema stays sloping upward, this stock seems slated to continue its bullish run for awhile.
From a fundamentals perspective it does appear to trade at a discount relative to TIE (P/E = 29.82) as it is trading at a P/E of 18.42, though as you noted TIE is considered a specialty metals stock, and ATI is transitioning into that type of stock. Anyway, it would seem that the chart and indicators have enough steam in them to get the stock to at least the specialty metals stock average P/E of 21 that you mentioned. If it can attain that PE then we have a nice price target of $75, and if it can ever get the TIE P/E it would go over $100.
I had to take this more detailed look at the stock since it has now netted me a 50% gain since January, and it seems Cramer is cooling on it (he recommended a "schnitzel" profit taking on his show recently and his realmoney.com columns indicate he is concerned about the sustainability of steel stocks rally). But so far it looks like its worth holding still :-)
ON FIRE at a closing price of $72.72
ATI is heading into Q1 earnings conference call 4/26.
Buying opportunity over the next week if this fills the gaps and finds support at $66.22 heading into the Q1 Conference Call on 4/26. Q1 Results will not disappoint. This stock will continue its trend and head north. Good money still to be made at this price level.
There is a huge shortage of special metals in the industry and commodity steel is holding firm ground. ATI is leading the pack for capital expansions into Titanium and Nickel alloys markets. Big financial quarters coming at the end of the year and 2007 based on expansion.
GLTY!
ATI came up this morning on my Equis - MACD Buy scan.
Looks like ATI has been consolidating a better than 300% gain, from mid-2005 to the May 11, 2006 high of 87.50.
It's currently coiling...coiling...coiling in a Symmetrical Triangle, and also between the 50 and 200DMAs, which still are properly positioned.
The top of the pattern is a validated trendline (at least 3 hits). Above it, the recent high of 61.28, and the 50DMA at 61.57 need to get taken out.
Thanx Melf
I have been watching ATI since $46, closely recently to see if it would break down and had a sub $55 close as a target for a short entry (fits your chart notes :)
I am not as familiar with the consolidation patterns on these larger stocks that have had GREAT runs. Your post openend my eyes AGAIN (applaud) to the long possibilities, if it breaks 61 my first target would be around 65. Will keep watching
Take a look at PNRA, very similar chart that you may like, not as much consolidation, so i wonder if/when rebound has started? Volume creeping up
Have a great holiday weekend. Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on September 02, 2006, 12:55:01 PM
I am not as familiar with the consolidation patterns on these larger stocks that have had GREAT runs. Your post openend my eyes AGAIN (applaud) to the long possibilities, if it breaks 61 my first target would be around 65. Will keep watching
joe,
Go to the Personal Log Board, "Melf's Workshop" if you want to have some fun about that. ;)
Quote
Take a look at PNRA, very similar chart that you may like, not as much consolidation, so i wonder if/when rebound has started? Volume creeping up
Have a great holiday weekend. Cheers Joe
PNRA completed a H&S Top and looks to have MADE the downside target, at about $49.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 02, 2006, 11:12:30 AM
It's currently coiling...coiling...coiling in a Symmetrical Triangle, and also between the 50 and 200DMAs, which still are properly positioned.
Symmetrical Triangle breakout yesterday.
Quote
The top of the pattern is a validated trendline (at least 3 hits). Above it, the recent high of 61.28, and the 50DMA at 61.57 need to get taken out.
Both
61.28 and the 50DMA at
61.57 got taken out. The close at 62.32 also was above them.
Howdie Melf
But where was the volume? You have mentione that for a breakout to be confirmed you like to see ?X average volume (was that 3x?)
ATI did not have the surge of volume, Friday it was down again, does this nulify of put on hold your breakout?
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on September 10, 2006, 04:35:42 AM
ATI did not have the surge of volume, Friday it was down again, does this nulify of put on hold your breakout?
joe,
Yeah, the volume is very poor. Sometimes, it comes in a few days later, but when stocks close back inside the breakout like ATI did on Friday, the target goes ON HOLD, which means think about whether or not you want to stay long because the breakout could be a failure.
Since the 50/200 DMAs still are bullishly positioned and since the trend is bullish, I'll hold it, but we never like these closes back below pattern breakouts. :P
ARNA closed below its breakout on Thursday, but it's back above it at Friday's close, so that one looks to be working out, as it stands.
I wouldn't blame anyone for abandoning ship on ATI here, though. It's a judgment call.
If ATI breaks the bottom of the pattern, near 50.24 for Monday, September 11, the upside target is CANCELLED and a downside target would be IN PLAY.
thanx Melf, You did mean a break down of 55.24 not 50.24 for a downside break out??
I am still watching, if it breaks 62 or 55 (on a close) with some volume i will probably jump in long or short
Cheers joe
Quote from: joet on September 10, 2006, 03:18:43 PM
thanx Melf, You did mean a break down of 55.24 not 50.24 for a downside break out??
Joe,
Yes, sorry. The trendline comes in at
55.2408 on Monday, September 11.
Quote from: Melf Elf on September 10, 2006, 05:37:19 AM
Since the 50/200 DMAs still are bullishly positioned and since the trend is bullish, I'll hold it, but we never like these closes back below pattern breakouts. :P
ATI closed back above the Symmetrical Triangle on Wednesday. :-*
On Thursday, MACD ticked above the zero line. On Friday, the stock took out, and closed above, the 62.75 breakout high. I like that. Volume is lacking, but otherwise this looks fine.
I'm raising my stop to 57.21. The initial breakout already was sloppy. I can't justify holding through another break below the pattern, and a takeout of Monday's 57.22 low. :P
The risk on the trade now is reduced from a loss of 9.3%, to a loss of 6.1%.
The chart work, technically, is done. The stock made its first "higher high" in some time, on Friday, and ATI is "champing at the bit," for its first close since May above the top of the Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.
That chart next, then the MACD chart.
The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 63.145. Friday's high was 63.49, which was the first penetration since the May breakdown. Friday's close was 62.99, so it's right there, poised to move higher.
MACD chart:
Thank you for the Analysis Melf!
I will be looking to buy a few shares on Monday, hopefully on a intra day weekness in the low 62s... Do you have an entry strategy once you like a stock? It is looking like ATI will go up this week, but i also see that it consistantly has about a $2 spread on the day. In your opinion would a buy order around 62.20 have a good chance of filling or missing the next run! If this question seems to absurd feel free to tell me so :D I like hearing peoples strategies... buy the open, buy the high, buy the dip etc. I personally like trying to buy the day after a good move up at about 1/2 the previos days candle... but i have missed several with this as well.
Have a great weekend Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on September 16, 2006, 04:54:19 PM
Do you have an entry strategy once you like a stock?
Joe,
It differs. Sometimes, I'll but what "looks like" support, prior to a breakout, like BDCO. If that
isn't support, I stop it out, also like BDCO. Sometimes, I'll buy the pattern breakout, like ATI last week. Other times, I'll buy a pullback to the breakout, if I can get it.
While those situations differ, the most important part of my entry strategy is ALWAYS to look at the risk:reward on the trade.
Quote
In your opinion would a buy order around 62.20 have a good chance of filling or missing the next run!
That's always a guess.
Given the lack of volume, I'd say that increases your chances of getting your 62.20, or even lower.
Since ATI was sloppy on the breakout, going back inside the pattern, it might even go all the back to
60.015 -60.3625 support to "get it right this time!" ;D
I hope not, since that will make me squirm a bit. :-\
60.3625 is the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)
60.355 is the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line)
60.015 is the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line)
What we don't want to see, is ATI break the bottom of what could be a "morph" (change) into a Bear Flag (the pattern in purple). The bottom of it was validated by a 3rd hit on Monday's 57.22 low, a penny below which is my 57.21 stop.
The 200DMA is below there could be support, currently at 56.794, but if we see that, I wouldn't like:
1. The break back below the Symmetrical Triangle
again :P
2. The break back below the Kumo (Cloud) :P
3. The break of would could be a Bear Flag (pattern in purple) :P
4. The print of a "lower low," below Monday's 57.22. :P
I'll stop it out if I see all that mess. :P
Quote
If this question seems to absurd feel free to tell me so :D
Not at all, Joe. You ask good questions. Sorry that I can't or don't answer them as thoroughly as I would like, and more often than not, there
isn't a "pat" answer upon which we always can rely. If there were, this gaime would be easy, and we know that it ain't. :D
Quote
I like hearing peoples strategies... buy the open, buy the high, buy the dip etc.
Again, I'd say most traders employ different strategies, depending upon the individual chat, as far as buying support, or buying a breakout, etc.
Quote
I personally like trying to buy the day after a good move up at about 1/2 the previos days candle... but i have missed several with this as well.
Have a great weekend Cheers Joe
That can be a nice strategy, to buy a retracement of half the candle, as you say, or even a .618 Fibonacci retracement of big white candle.
It worked beautifully in GIGM, the day after the big white candle on September 7.
September 7 high: 11.27
September 7 low: 9.68
11.27 - 9.68 = 1.59 points
1.59 points X .618 = 0.983 points
11.27 high - 0.983 points for a .618 Fibonacci Retracement - Target: 10.287 for next day entry.
Next day's low: 10.25.
Buy the retracement, and sell it when the intraday Symmetrical Triangle target: 11:48 MADE on September 13 (that was a return to the top of the pattern) for a
gain of 11.6%Stop would be below the low of the white candle, which was 9.68, so 9.67.
Entry at 10.29. Stop: 9.67. Risk:
a loss of 6.03% , so that's about a 1:2 risk/reward, which is fine. You've also got the option of selling ½ for the 11.6% gain, and seeing what develops on the intraday chart, etc.
Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure that Se7en re-entered GIGM right at 10.28, after selling it above 11.00, then he sold it
again above 11.00 (I think). I don't know if he used the .618 Fibonacci retracement for his 10.28 re-entry, but that was nice trading!
I have to applaud se7en for that, in case I forgot do it. :D
Hi
Not sure who called it first for GIGM, but I learned the strategy from FOUS, on his technicaltrader website. Buying 1/2 the tall white candle the day after a break out has been working well for him. Applaud to Fous! and as always to you Melf, thanx for the response.
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on September 17, 2006, 09:16:02 PM
Hi
Not sure who called it first for GIGM, but I learned the strategy from FOUS, on his technicaltrader website. Buying 1/2 the tall white candle the day after a break out has been working well for him. Applaud to Fous! and as always to you Melf, thanx for the response.
joe,
Yes, that can be a nice trade, or possibly buying a tall white candle retracement before a breakout, if the chart looks strong enough. I'm thinking of Friday's white candle in ASTM, for example. I'll post a chart in that folder.
yoo Melf
Been thinking of you as i watch the downs and ups of ATI, so i had to look back to your stop, Looks like you are still Long! and that is good after todays action... but is this just a quarter end spike? Still a sloppy break out? or does todays clean it up some for you? I am still on the sidelines.
All metal stocks did well today! Think that ERS may have turned a corner!
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on September 26, 2006, 04:52:09 PM
yoo Melf
Been thinking of you as i watch the downs and ups of ATI
joe,
It's been more downs than ups lately! :D
Quote
so i had to look back to your stop, Looks like you are still Long! and that is good after todays action
Yep, still long.
In the "Damned if I do...damned if I don't" department, as you know, I haven't liked the lousy volume in ATI since the Symmetrical Triangle breakout. I was going to sell it at $65 and try to get back in lower, but I did that on AAPL and got punished for it. AAPL didn't go down much at all. I never got back in, and the 76.05 target MADE with me sitting on the sidelines.
Curses! >:( >:D
So, what happened with ATI when I
didn't sell at $65? It dropped to $57.97!
Curses! :D >:D
Quote
but is this just a quarter end spike?
Dunno.
Quote
Still a sloppy break out?
It's improving a bit.
Quote
or does todays clean it up some for you?
Yes, it does.
Tuesday was a re-test of the top of the Symmetrical Triangle, the close almost was a Bullish Hammer, and volume picked up to 3.2 million. Yesterday was a nice white candle, following through to the upside after the successful re-test of the triangle, and volume improved to 3.5 million.
Hi Melf, hi Joet,
I'm also long on ATI. Since the August 14th fall it seems to make higher highs and higher lows. Moving the right way :) :)
I like what I see! Finally...
Amarens
Joe and Amarens,
I'm long at 60.90 since the September 5 breakout.
The chart still looks okay, but if ATI has much of a down day, MACD will go down through its signal line. Volume hasn't been good. If ATI sliides into the high 60.90s, I'll make a safety play and sell it for a fractional percentage gain.
MACD
Hi Melf,
Thanks for the update. Applaus your analysis.
I follow the card below. The TL rises 0,07 each day and stands at $ 58,51 today. I'll keep a close eye though.. :-\ :-\
Tnx,
Amarens
Quote from: Amarens on October 04, 2006, 09:25:49 AM
I follow the card below. The TL rises 0,07 each day and stands at $ 58,51 today. I'll keep a close eye though.. :-\ :-\
Amarens,
That's very good. Applause. I'm following that trendline, too. The slope depends on how we connect it. I connected #1 and #2 and extended it, but connecting #1 and #3, for example, is fine, too. The way I did it, hit #4 violated the trendline slightly, but I left it in.
FWIW, I get a slope of 0.08455, so it comes in today at 58.778. What's important, I think, is not getting a close below that.
So far this morning, ATI has filled yesterday's gap down candle low of 61.37. I'd like to see it find data point #4, for a Symmetrical Triangle, or a Bullish Flag. I'll show you that chart next.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 04, 2006, 09:56:53 AM
I'd like to see it find data point #4, for a Symmetrical Triangle, or a Bullish Flag. I'll show you that chart next.
Amarens,
If ATI can make a "higher low" than Green #2, then break out above the pattern, it would be a Symmetrical Triangle.
If it makes a "lower low," and doesn't do any technical damage, like breaking the trendline that we just discussed, then breaks out to the upside, it would be a Bull Flag.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 04, 2006, 10:03:30 AM
If it makes a "lower low," and doesn't do any technical damage, like breaking the trendline that we just discussed, then breaks out to the upside, it would be a Bull Flag.
Amarens,
Oops...that's wrong. Sorry.
A Bull Flag would break the trendline that we discussed, because it would take out Green #2.
That still could work out alright, though, if it holds above the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (blue line).
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 04, 2006, 10:03:30 AM
If ATI can make a "higher low" than Green #2, then break out above the pattern, it would be a Symmetrical Triangle.
Amarens,
Symmetrical Triangle breakout this morning on the print of 62.57. Target: 70.59 IN PLAY, as long as the breakout holds.
ATI is looking good :D There is a small gap to fill, so if I can get a lucky print of 61.89 I will join in too, though it doesnt look like that will happen today.
Quote from: tokyopua on October 05, 2006, 10:38:43 AM
ATI is looking good :D There is a small gap to fill, so if I can get a lucky print of 61.89 I will join in too, though it doesnt look like that will happen today.
tok,
I thought that they were going to fill it after the breakout this morning, but they took it down only to 62.12, then took it up again. Volume is looking a bit better. Already 1 million shares. 100 day average volume is 3.4 million.
Hi Melf,
Thanks for your great analysis. I'm learning so much on TA from you. People like you make this site be a huge difference :-*. It strenghtens me to keep learning and reading more on TA.
ATI is looking good today, but most stocks are today.
Amarens
Amarens,
Thanks for the feedback on the TA.
I like the fact that ATI gapped up yesterday right to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout point*, didn't entirely fill the gap, then had a strong day on the best volume since August 14. It now needs to take out 66.00, the high of the Symmetrical Triangle, which is a minor target IN PLAY.
EDIT: * Breakout point was 62.564...the open was 62.57.
Good luck!
Bullish Inverse H&S breakout this morning, basis the 1-Minute chart.
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 06, 2006, 08:29:11 AM
It now needs to take out 66.00, the high of the Symmetrical Triangle, which is a minor target IN PLAY.
The
66.00 target MADE.
Hey guys, enjoying all the TA going on.
What's the latest TA on this stock. Another big up day today.
Whats the exit strategy or target price?
Quote from: metal head on October 09, 2006, 05:18:14 PM
Hey guys, enjoying all the TA going on.
What's the latest TA on this stock.
Whats the exit strategy or target price?
metal head,
70.59 is IN PLAY from the little Symmetrical Triangle breakout (pattern in green).
71.29 is IN PLAY from the big Symmetrical Triangle breakout (pattern in blue).
Those are the next targets.
77.38 also is IN PLAY from the big Symmetrical Triangle breakout.
Quote
Another big up day today.
NOTE: This chart doesn't reflect today's gain of $3.16, to 68.64.
Chart looks like it's through consolidating and ready to move higher... ;)
Fairly conservative play with some good upside potential. Liberal stop in order to try and hold for several months.
With this bull chart, I think I would just go ahead and target the high of $87.50 it set
May 11,2006. JMHO of course,I think it's ready to set a new high.
This is one of the only metals companies that makes alloys able to withstand the tremendous pressures of very deep ocean oil drilling without crushing under the pressure. They may get a lot more business as deep oil drilling starts to gain more favor. Also, the PE ration is way under the earnings growth rate making it cheap.
Business Overview............. ;)
BRIEF: For the six months ended 30 June 2006, Allegheny Technologies Incorporated's revenues rose 26% to $2.25B. Net income rose 59% to $242.9M. Revenues reflect an increase in sales of High Performance Metals segment due to higher demand from aerospace & defence market and a rise in sales of Engineered Products segment due to increased volume & higher selling prices. Net income also reflects an increase in operating margins and lower net interest expense. http://www.alleghenytechnologies.com/
As Melf has already pointed out the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern.
Support @ $67.31...65.16...62.07...60.37
Resistance @ $69.23...70.39...75.53...84.53
13-day-MA has crossed the 50-day MA
52wk Range: 26.12 - 87.50
Volume: 3,614,600
Avg Vol (3m): 2,734,400
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
9.62%above 13-day MA
11.43%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 32
MACD is Bullish
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $6,115.09
P/E Ratio: 13.70
PEG Ratio: 0.846667
Next Earnings: 10/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral
Just my two cents worth..... ;D
On Fire in the early going this morning, up another $2.00+
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 09, 2006, 06:21:22 PM
70.59 is IN PLAY from the little Symmetrical Triangle breakout (pattern in green).
70.59 MADE.
Quote
71.29 is IN PLAY from the big Symmetrical Triangle breakout (pattern in blue).
71.29 also MADE.
Yo Melf
Great play on ATI, I never entered... Your "feelings" were bullish on both ATI and BRCD when the where struggling... KUDOS... Do you have any other hunches currently. Check out my post on BOBJ when you get a chance, Is there such a pattern as a Bullish island reversal?
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on October 11, 2006, 11:04:07 AM
Yo Melf
Great play on ATI, I never entered... Your "feelings" were bullish on both ATI and BRCD when the where struggling.
Thanks, Joe. ;)
I felt that way because both ATI and BRCD looked like Bullish Consolidation/Continuation patterns after gains of over 100% in each stock. Both eventually had bullish breakouts.
Quote
Do you have any other hunches currently.
Over the years, I've learned not to play my hunches
or my opinions. ;)
Quote
Check out my post on BOBJ when you get a chance
We've got so many folders, I don't get a chance to read very many of them, so I apologize if I don't get to it.
Quote
Is there such a pattern as a Bullish island reversal?
Yes. BOBJ had a Bullish Island Reversal on July 27.
The implication is that it's very bullish if the gap
isn't filled, and it wasn't. Just like the Symmetrical Triangle in ATI...the October 5 Bullish Breakaway Gap wasn't filled, and the stock raced higher and MADE the two targets today.
BOBJ is up 90% since the Bullish Island Reversal, so it's very extended on the upside. That doesn't mean that it won't go higher, but it makes it difficult to set up a favorable risk:reward if you aren't in it already.
Good luck!
Hi Melf,
Still in, still looking great. I've changed the TL (now lower one, other one seems to risky although it is still holding too I guess...standing at $ 70,88 and rising $ 1,75 might be too steep) to lock in profits. It stands at $61,39 and rises $ 0,30 every day >:D
Good luck,
Amarens
Quote from: setravis on October 09, 2006, 07:11:01 PM
Chart looks like it's through consolidating and ready to move higher... ;)
Fairly conservative play with some good upside potential. Liberal stop in order to try and hold for several months.
With this bull chart, I think I would just go ahead and target the high of $87.50 it set
May 11,2006. JMHO of course,I think it's ready to set a new high.
This is one of the only metals companies that makes alloys able to withstand the tremendous pressures of very deep ocean oil drilling without crushing under the pressure. They may get a lot more business as deep oil drilling starts to gain more favor. Also, the PE ration is way under the earnings growth rate making it cheap.
Business Overview............. ;)
BRIEF: For the six months ended 30 June 2006, Allegheny Technologies Incorporated's revenues rose 26% to $2.25B. Net income rose 59% to $242.9M. Revenues reflect an increase in sales of High Performance Metals segment due to higher demand from aerospace & defence market and a rise in sales of Engineered Products segment due to increased volume & higher selling prices. Net income also reflects an increase in operating margins and lower net interest expense. http://www.alleghenytechnologies.com/
As Melf has already pointed out the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern.
Just my two cents worth..... ;D
Also we have , patterns with patterns.
Ascending Triangle (Continuation).............Breakout
The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout. If you will recall, the symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. On the ascending triangle, the horizontal line represents overhead supply that prevents the security from moving past a certain level. It is as if a large sell order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from rising further. Even though the price cannot rise past this level, the reaction lows continue to rise. It is these higher lows that indicate increased buying pressure and give the ascending triangle its bullish bias
Quote from: Amarens on October 12, 2006, 11:12:52 AM
Hi Melf,
Still in,
Amarens,
Good for you! ;)
Quote
still looking great.
It sure is! It's been on an upside screamer since putting in Data Point #4 on October 4, at 59.82. It's up seven days in a row, including today, and is up well over 20% from that low.
That's how a stock "should" act when it has multiple pattern breakouts, like we had. ;)
Quote
other one seems to risky although it is still holding too I guess...standing at $ 70,88 and rising $ 1,75 might be too steep) to lock in profits
I agree that the sharp trendline is too risky. In the Hourly Chart, there were 4 hits to that trendline, validating it as support, but we can see that it got broken yesterday, and that ATI powered higher again today.
Nothing wrong with using that trendline to take profits, if anyone did. Or, with taking some profits today, since it's extended. "A gain is a gain," and it all depends on how one likes to take profits. But, it's forcing a stock to adhere to a very steep trendline, and that isn't very realistic.
It all depends on how you like to take profits.
Quote
Good luck
Good luck to you, too!
I am also looking for some shorts to hold as i see the entire market quite optimistic currently. I shorted a few GS at 1.81... thnking about shorting ATI if the RSI gets above 80. I am not looking for a major trend reversal, just a 5-10% breather to grab a profit... hmm time will tell Strategy has worked ok, but caught on the wrong side of AKAM and AAPL
Cheers Joe
*DJ - Allegheny Tech Sees $2.5 Billion Revenue From Pact 2007-2015
Indication: BID 75.88...ASK 76.48...UP $1.62
Quote from: Melf Elf on October 09, 2006, 06:21:22 PM
77.38 also is IN PLAY from the big Symmetrical Triangle breakout.
77.38 MADE at the open. ;)
Yo Melf great play on ATI... Do you sell your targets as a matter of rule? I watched this entire run w/o getting on board... Sure hope INSM has a similar % run soon (but i realize that our target % gain on INSM is less).
Good evening to you
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on October 17, 2006, 01:06:07 AM
Yo Melf great play on ATI... Do you sell your targets as a matter of rule?
Thanks, Joe. Yes, I sell at least some when targets get MADE, unless it's a minor target, when much higher targets still are IN PLAY. In a case like yesterday's gap higher panic buying, and rally beyond my last target of 77.38 at the open, I'll let it run a little, but with the intention of "selling into strength."
Depite yesterday's good news before the open, that kind of gap up, 9th consecutive day of a rally, has the possibility of being what's called an "Exhaustion Gap."
If for some unknown reason, ATI should gap down today below yesterday's low of 75.35, and not fill the gap during trading, we'll have an Abandoned Baby on the chart, and we know what
those babies can be like. :P
At any rate, the Bearish-looking Doji Star left on the chart at least suggests the possibility of a pullback, and with all of my upside targets MADE, I'm out.
Hi Melf,
This was a great run up. I've decided too to take my profits today ::) ::). At least that it what I expect. Set my stop at $ 76,00 giving it a little room but not too much >:D.
Was good to be in this one with you.
Amarens
Quote from: Amarens on October 17, 2006, 08:02:18 AM
This was a great run up. I've decided too to take my profits today ::) ::). At least that it what I expect. Set my stop at $ 76,00 giving it a little room but not too much >:D.
Amarens,
You were in this one before I was, so you've got a real nice gain. Congratulations!
Quote
Was good to be in this one with you.
Yes, it was great fun! May all of our trades go this well. :D ;)
Forgot to watch this one after all of our upside targets MADE. So many stocks...so little time.
ATI went into another Symmetrical Triangle, broke out again, and is at a new high for the year, up 144.9% so far, in 2006. Good pick by Cramer.
We'll have to watch for his 2007 Stock of the Year. :D
Melf Elf thanks for the charting and TA; very cool stuff.
ATI still seems strong to me after leading the S&P in 2006. Pulled back from all-time high and ready to climb again. $60 million in expansion just released today, add that with 4th quarter release on 1/24/07 should make for a new high.
These guys are still spending major bucks to capture market opportunities for Titanium Alloys and other specality metals. $60 million in cash investments.
Smart move to expand Ti Plate; this is one area the company had little capacity or knowledge. Huge money in plate, nice market volume, Ti Plate is gaining volume as a Military armor for vechiles and tanks, low competition, helps consume all the Ti sponge capacity they added in oregon and utah (nice and vertical).
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070117/20070117005563.html?.v=1
6-month MACD, RSI, ROC show positive to me.
howdie all
not a subscriber of Cramer, but i heard that he recently picked LMC. I traded EZM last year some and liked their story, and LMC bought them.
Metal Head do you follow the Zinc market at all??
LMC is fighting with the 200sma, could be a good entry here around $33 for a longer term hold...
Hmmm you think ATI is still a buy here! Wow what a run they have had!
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on January 18, 2007, 03:42:23 AM
Hmmm you think ATI is still a buy here!
Joe,
Yes. It broke out again Thursday last. 101.23 is IN PLAY.
I want to see ATI take out 93.14. That would be another breakout of a "W"-bottom.
Quote
Wow what a run they have had!
Cramer sure got this one right, didn't he? :D
EDIT: Sorry, it's 101.18 that's IN PLAY.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 18, 2007, 04:11:32 AM
EDIT: Sorry, it's 101.18 that's IN PLAY.
Joe,
Sorry, I'm moving too fast this morning. Let me try this again. :D
103.24 is IN PLAY from last Thursday's breakout.
101.18
will be IN PLAY if ATI prints 93.15, which would be the W-Bottom breakout.
Solid news again today.
$2 billion dollar LTA signed with GE over the nxt 5 years
4th quarter news this week also.
Hope we finish over $93.15 today per Melf Elf's TA.
I think this adds up to $100+ very soon!
Joe - Sorry, I don't follow the Zinic market. I primarly focus on Steel and Specality Alloy companys since that's my knowledge base.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070122/allegheny_technologies_contract.html?.v=1
Quote from: metal head on January 22, 2007, 12:15:02 PM
Hope we finish over $93.15 today per Melf Elf's TA.
I think this adds up to $100+ very soon!
Metal Head and Joe,
They knocked ATI down over $3 at the open this morning, on earnings, but it's come roaring back, and now is UP almost $3, at $97, heading toward the targets IN PLAY.
What a monster! ;D
;D Kudos to you both, ATI great earnings and great prospects!! Melf You are going to laugh at my dumb luck, for 3 days i have had a buy order in at 92.00 and figured that i missed ATI AGAIN then today it opened low, my order filled :) and i am now the proud owner of 22 shares of ATI.
Now my dilemma, the reason that i bought was the technical pattern that you pointed out here, the W with a Target around $102 With todays monster move momentum could well hit that target in the next few days... to hold or sell into the strength?? the trader in me says sell the target if i get it because that is why i entered the trade... too bad it is such a small position, not really worth selling half. in the best case we get another monster move up and i am able to put in a stop limit around 100 that does not get filled :)
Hmm all of the prospects that metal head talks about make the investor side of me say just sit on it.... but it is voltile and it would be nice to trade the dips... hmmmm
PS I really like ONT here
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on January 25, 2007, 03:05:33 AM
for 3 days i have had a buy order in at 92.00 and figured that i missed ATI AGAIN then today it opened low, my order filled :) and i am now the proud owner of 22 shares of ATI.
Joe,
Hey, that's great! Congratulations. Good luck with your decision whether to hold or sell.
Quote from: metal head on January 22, 2007, 12:15:02 PM
I think this adds up to $100+ very soon!
Metal Head,
Yesterday's high was your
100.00 exactly. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 18, 2007, 04:19:58 AM
[EDIT: Sorry, it's 101.18 that's IN PLAY.
Joe,
Sorry, I'm moving too fast this morning. Let me try this again. :D
103.24 is IN PLAY from last Thursday's breakout.
101.18 will be IN PLAY if ATI prints 93.15, which would be the W-Bottom breakout.
101.18 MADE.
101.18 made and i am still holding.... cheers joe
Another strong finish today! Up $3
Citigroup raises target price
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070125:MTFH75345_2007-01-25_14-21-12_BNG46415&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Earnings Soar Higher per 4th quarter conference.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/allegheny-profit-surges-aerospace-demand/story.aspx?guid=%7B6512732A%2D1C60%2D4820%2D989B%2D95EC7FAD60A9%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
Added Titanium Capacity just now coming into play.....another strong year for this one.
Nice buy on the dip Joe!
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 18, 2007, 04:19:58 AM
103.24 is IN PLAY from last Thursday's breakout.
101.18 will be IN PLAY if ATI prints 93.15, which would be the W-Bottom breakout.
103.24 MADE.
Up $4.63 today (4.5%), on nice volume.
Competitor, RTI to announce earnings this Friday. (Should be strong #'s to support the special metals industry).
ATI just made a new all-time high for the stock. The candle ended up being a doji, but if the market continues with its upside momentum, ATI should follow. Super ;D
ATI making a resounding breakout to new all time highs today. Got through the resistance between 110 and 111 and is ripping along quite nicely now.
A conservative ascending tringle breaout target would be $125, but I could see it going even further... very nice ;D
Closed at 52-Week High of $113.34!!!!
Leading stock performer of S&P 500 in 2006. More of the same in 2007!!
The Titanium Market is unreal right now.....ATI heavily invested in Ti expansion to capture those 60% margins in the market right now. 787 Dreamliner consuming 220,000 lbs. of Titanium per plane. No slowing down in Titanium for a couple more years due to supply and demand.
ATI also is Top Supplier in lucrative Oil/Gas/Chemicals market due to Chemical resistant specality steels & select titanium alloys.
Thanks for the charts ScottishTrader......I agree, 120's here we come!
Up $2.50
Heading Higher
Nice breakout today. Up in price over $3.00.
Can someone add a TA chart??
Quarter Earnings report on 4/25/07......should be great numbers which translate in high ground.
TA wise, what else is there to say??? ATI once gain broke to an all time high. This weeks action probably scared a few short term traders (me included), but thursday's intraday action made a nice ascending triangle, and then ATI gapped up today and had a very strong day (along with the markets).
The solid uptrend continues, and I wouldn't be surprised to see $120 next week at this rate.
After the recent pullback to $105, ATI has found channel support and continues to ride that channel. Yesterday was a great little breakout candle, and I think ATI should be back up above $115 shortly. May take a little jostling to get over resistance between $113 and 115 though.
M&A rumors surfaced today with price above $130/sh
http://tradethenews.com/symbol_history.asp
Strong volume on news
Option Volume sky rocketed
Conference Call in 15 days
May reverse bearish behavior of late--Still a buy in my book.
Dipped to $80 bucks on 8/16/07 and now is back to $97 bucks four trading days later.
2 recent upgrades to STRONG BUY.
Fundamentals still great for this stock.
52 week High in May of 2007 at $120 bucks.
Thanx for you posts Metal head, I read them! I have liked ATI since 46. Currently it seem like all the metal sector is cooling off. With a possible bear market and these rallying on weeker volume i am tempted to short if it hits the 200ma.. thoughts on why the metals have cooled off?
MT, X, LMC all with similar charts... appear to be rolling over
time will tell
keep up the great posts. I hope that you grabbed some int he 80's
cheers joe