ATI

[metal head]

This is a nice play in the specality metals industry.  Gov., Defense, Aerospace markets.  Company making money hand-over-fist in it's Titanium alloys.  Highly cyclically market with this being the 3rd year of a 7yr year run.  The Boeing 787 Dreamliner will ensure Titanium demand remains strong starting in 2007.  Company expanding Titanium capacity with 100 million dollars of capital investments.  I'm in at $41.33.  I'm also a Titanium Engineer---this is a nice long-term play for those wanting to wait 1-2 years.  Even a nice 6 month play

Check out great chart and high volume of late.  Good Luck!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ATI


Edit of the Thread Heading, "ATI, Crammers 2006 stock-of-year"
Messages like these in the thread heading become out of date as time passes.
Thank You,
setravis

[tokyopua]

If I recall correctly, Cramer said he was staking his reputation on this stock, and he also might have said something along the lines of this stock being like his Google of 2006.  I got in a few days after he said that and have enjoyed a nice gain also, so I am with you on this one. 

I am also thinking of picking at his other aerospace materials play, HXL that he mentioned last night.  I think both are better ways to play the aerospace cycle than BA since I keep getting nervous that Airbus has to start winning some orders *sometime* soon... but both companies need the raw materials to build the planes.

BTW, what exactly does a Titanium Engineer do if you dont mind my asking?

[joet]

Howdie, Not sure how i feel about Cramer yet?  He does seem to do well for the most part.

Any TA thoughts on the gap up last week between mid 44 and mid 46 at the earning???  I have read over and over that gaps always get filled...  perhaps that is a good target buy price?  Especially with the RSI14 over 80 we should see a pull back sometime soon

Also do not miss the boat on cement, CX .  raw materials and construction demand should continue to drive up the cement companies, if anyone sees a better value in the cement sector could they post it, i have watched CX from 51 without a significant pull back in 3 months!
Cheers Joe

[metal head]

ATI up $2.75 today.

I got in on HXL about 8-months ago after a presentation by Boeing Phantom Works Engineers on the rising use of graphite composites for commercial airplanes (New Dreamliner 787).  Boeing currently uses a considerable amount more of these materials than in Airbus designs.  But Airbus will come around due to the weight advantage. I agree, this is a nice long-term play.  Especially when Dreamliners start taking-off and the spare parts side of the business picks up.

I'm a Ti Product Engineer for a Mill.  I basically take an 18,000 lb. ingot and convert it down into usable product forms (rolled bar, billet, slabs) depending on customer specification/design.  A forge or machine shop will then make a final part (ex. turbine blade or disk).  I oversee and create all the MFG. instructions for the conversion (hot-working, machining, and testing).  I work hand-in-hand with GE, Snecma, Rolls (Engine makers) and forge shops like (Wyman, Laddish, Boehler, etc.). 

In regards to the gap between $44-46 being filled;  I got a feeling this one is just going to go higher.  Looks like a nice base around $50.  ATI by many investors is considered a Commodity Steel Company (Usually PE 8-14).  However, today ATI is moving into the direction of a specialty metals company (PE's of 21 or greater-check TIE for an example and the explosion they have had).  With a PE of 14-15, ATI is way undervalued and I think the PR that Crammer has given this stock along with the great financial #'s will make for a nice 1-2 year run-up. 

Good Luck!

[Lucas Scott]

If ATI does half as well as Cramer's RHEO pick we'll all be broke by Christmas!  

But seriously, the chart looks good. Metal - thanks for your analysis on this stock.

[metal head]

Looks like support was found at the gap price of $46.  Kudos joet on the call above. 

Candle stick chart shows the trend.  Look for uptrend confirmation with heavy volume and increase in pps tomorrow AM.

could be steady up-tick past resistance at $54.   IMO heading north of $60 with this one. 


http://www.litwick.com/cgi/chart.cgi

[metal head]

Broke through 52-week high resistance with heavy volume today.  ($55 pps now)

Hope you loaded up at $46 a couple of weeks ago when it dipped.

No resistance above; should reach $60+ soon. 

Watch for this one to hit $60-70 range, split, and then head North again (Same pattern as TIE)

Low PE with rising revenues and high demand for their products; do your DD on this one.

[metal head]

Closed at $61.50 today.

Up 41% on the year.

Additional $25 million in capital expansion for Titanium products....this in addition to the $100 million already in process.  (Check Yahoo News)

Increase revenues in Titanium products will be realized in the 4th quarter into 2007 (Huge margins will follow as Ti is extremely HOT!)

With the additional Ti capacity; ATI may take the lead spot for World's #1 Ti supplier.

2005 #'s

Timet = 27.8 million mill lbs.
ATI = 19.8 million mill lbs.;  (This does not include rolled bar product, add another 5 million lbs.)

Conclusion----ATI no longer a commodity Steel company.  Investors catching on!!

GLTY!!!

[tokyopua]

Hi Metal Head,

Applauded you today for the many posts here giving your inside industry perspecitve!  Thanks!

I figured given all your great fundamental analysis, it was time for us to look at a chart of this stock 

First we can look at the chart on stockta.com, and despite the bearish engulfing candle on Friday, just about every other indicator is bullish.

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=ATI&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

Its also an overall 96% buy at barchart.com, the only thing keeping it from being 100% is the short erm 80% rating, which makes sense given the recent candle, etc.  We may see a few more down days to come.  But how low could they go?  Lets look at the chart... so far the 13ema provides good support, and currently its aligning well with the most aggressive trendline I have drawn.  Also, given the three candlesticks around end of March/beginning of April we see a likely support intersecting with the trendline at exactly $62.5. 

The Force indicator is on a downtick, if it goes below the centerline and the price is around support this might be a good time for entry for anyone who has been watching the stock.   As long as the 13ema stays sloping upward, this stock seems slated to continue its bullish run for awhile.

From a fundamentals perspective it does appear to trade at a discount relative to TIE (P/E = 29.82) as it is trading at a P/E of 18.42, though as you noted TIE is considered a specialty metals stock, and ATI is transitioning into that type of stock.  Anyway, it would seem that the chart and indicators have enough steam in them to get the stock to at least the specialty metals stock average P/E of 21 that you mentioned.  If it can attain that PE then we have a nice price target of $75, and if it can ever get the TIE P/E it would go over $100.

I had to take this more detailed look at the stock since it has now netted me a 50% gain since January, and it seems Cramer is cooling on it (he recommended a "schnitzel" profit taking on his show recently and his realmoney.com columns indicate he is concerned about the sustainability of steel stocks rally).  But so far it looks like its worth holding still :-) 

[metal head]

ON FIRE at a closing price of $72.72

ATI is heading into Q1 earnings conference call 4/26.

Buying opportunity over the next week if this fills the gaps and finds support at $66.22 heading into the Q1 Conference Call  on 4/26.  Q1 Results will not disappoint.  This stock will continue its trend and head north.  Good money still to be made at this price level.

There is a huge shortage of special metals in the industry and commodity steel is holding firm ground.  ATI is leading the pack for capital expansions into Titanium and Nickel alloys markets.  Big financial quarters coming at the end of the year and 2007 based on expansion.

GLTY!

[Melf Elf]

ATI came up this morning on my Equis - MACD Buy scan.

Looks like ATI has been consolidating a better than 300% gain, from mid-2005 to the May 11, 2006 high of 87.50.

It's currently coiling...coiling...coiling in a Symmetrical Triangle, and also between the 50 and 200DMAs, which still are properly positioned.

The top of the pattern is a validated trendline (at least 3 hits).  Above it, the recent high of 61.28, and the 50DMA at 61.57 need to get taken out.

[joet]

Thanx Melf
I have been watching ATI since $46, closely recently to see if it would break down and had a sub $55 close as a target for a short entry (fits your chart notes

I am not as familiar with the consolidation patterns on these larger stocks that have had GREAT runs.  Your post openend my eyes AGAIN (applaud) to the long possibilities, if it breaks 61 my first target would be around 65.  Will keep watching

Take a look at PNRA, very similar chart that you may like, not as much consolidation, so i wonder if/when rebound has started? Volume creeping up

Have a great holiday weekend.  Cheers Joe

[Melf Elf]

I am not as familiar with the consolidation patterns on these larger stocks that have had GREAT runs.  Your post openend my eyes AGAIN (applaud) to the long possibilities, if it breaks 61 my first target would be around 65.  Will keep watching

joe,

Go to the Personal Log Board, "Melf's Workshop" if you want to have some fun about that. 

Take a look at PNRA, very similar chart that you may like, not as much consolidation, so i wonder if/when rebound has started? Volume creeping up

Have a great holiday weekend.  Cheers Joe

PNRA completed a H&S Top and looks to have MADE the downside target, at about $49.

[Melf Elf]

It's currently coiling...coiling...coiling in a Symmetrical Triangle, and also between the 50 and 200DMAs, which still are properly positioned.

Symmetrical Triangle breakout yesterday.

The top of the pattern is a validated trendline (at least 3 hits).  Above it, the recent high of 61.28, and the 50DMA at 61.57 need to get taken out.

Both 61.28 and the 50DMA at 61.57 got taken out.  The close at 62.32 also was above them.

[joet]

Howdie Melf
But where was the volume?  You have mentione that for a breakout to be confirmed you like to see ?X average volume (was that 3x?)

ATI did not have the surge of volume, Friday it was down again, does this nulify of put on hold your breakout?

Cheers Joe