3SOF

I liquidated all my long position except my shorts ;)
We need shorts pick in the portfolio the market is getting ugly..

QQQQ just sliced the 50(SMA) (WEEKLY SCALE)

I tried to short GIGM this morning unfortunately no shares are available in TDAmeritrade :(

terlisa do you think Ntri would be a good short. I think it is going to close the gap.

Quote from: ket1390 on May 15, 2006, 03:28:16 PM
terlisa do you think Ntri would be a good short. I think it is going to close the gap.

Ket,

NTRI looks like trying to close the GAP... just like TZOO, went up like a rocket and now dropping like a stone ;)

ok terlisa...i think a close under 65 for ntri would be a good entry for a short

I agree terliso, I shorted DHI today covered for over 2% gain. Im new to shorting so im still trying to time it better and find good entries and exits. Any good tips with shorting and stock picks would be great! Lets make some money  ;D

Quote from: Terliso on May 15, 2006, 02:13:55 PM
I liquidated all my long position except my shorts ;)
We need shorts pick in the portfolio the market is getting ugly..

QQQQ just sliced the 50(SMA) (WEEKLY SCALE)

Yes definately a good idea Terliso.. but the timing may be a bit off.  The Nasdaq is showing support in this nice doji hammer at the 200ma.. so we may see a bounce this week.  If/When that turns over we will be cleared for shorting.. although some picks may work even now.  8)

has someone shorting picks ?  ;D

Quote from: ket1390 on May 16, 2006, 12:00:35 PM
has someone shorting picks ?  ;D

I do,  I am currently shorts in NVAX, PHM, CTX only three that's all, no more longs ;)

Shorting DHI want to get into CTX and PHM waiting for a pop to enter. Hombuilders are in the decline terliso has some good picks im just waiting to short those others higher. List of homebuilders also alot of them are mortage lenders... CTX, TOL, PHM, and DHI. Chances are you short all 4 of them at the pop ups you will get some nice returns.

QuoteShorting DHI want to get into CTX and PHM

I'm also shorting DHI. And POWI and FITB too. Thanks Terliso(a) (which one is it?,make up your mind already  ;) ) for mentioning POWI and DHI. I am still long some stocks: ACTG,NMKT,HOM,AOB,ALTI,IGII

Also considering shorting BRL.

Quote from: echo on May 16, 2006, 11:32:02 PM
Also considering shorting BRL.

I may pick one of these to short for tomorrow while they still trading above $5 bucks

CDE, BRCD

Im thinking trying to decide a cover target on DHI. I might just ride it down with a updated stop loss. Looking at other potential shorts... would love some new picks to look at

SIR plummeted less than 20 percent... it might break the all time support around $6

Potential shorts:

CA, IOTN, CMS, URBN, SVM, PWAV, SAPE, PTEN

I like CA, CMS, and PWAV.

I like CA chart new 52week lows. No support below and the short % of float is 2.67%, party looks like its just getting started. Bad fundamentals and bag holders look like there bailing out.

CMS looks good also... Whatever support there is in the 12.00s it looks like its going to breakdown. Fundamentals turned bad... Bad news as well with a nuke plant shutting down. Short intrest just increased shorts now at 7.76% of the float. Bag holders+increase of shorts=lower price ;P?

PWAV bad fundamentals no support below.... Looks like its going to break down big time.

I might choose one of those to short tomorrow im leaning toward PWAV or CA

We need short for 3SOF portfolio..... market is declining ;)

I think picking 2-3 Homebuilders, Lenders, Real Estate stocks to short cant go wrong. DHI, KBH, and LEN some more good ones. People will look at the charts see oversold but the future outlook looks grim on them.

Quote from: nullzero on May 17, 2006, 02:39:13 PM
I think picking 2-3 Homebuilders, Lenders, Real Estate stocks to short cant go wrong. DHI, KBH, and LEN some more good ones. People will look at the charts see oversold but the future outlook looks grim on them.

Yup, good shorts ;)

short hom 11.60
. gulp /..............i have only shorted a couple of times so it is a bit freaky.
but i suppose it is just a bull chart upside down.
stop loss 12.
10day ema is at 11.
buy to cover there if it works out.
glta,
maxi

Rick did you cover on HOM? I wouldnt touch it if the market rebounds HOM can be up over 12. HOM is very risky shorting releasing a new contract PR for millions can cause a huge upswing. Its good swing trading buying low and selling high because it always seems to recover.

hi,
no haven't covered yet . will cover at 11 or end of the day. just incase cramer mentions it tonight ;D
maxi

hi,
got called to work so i covered at 11.38. like i said . ddn't want t leave it overnight.
glta
maxi

nice quick trade there

I've shorted DHI,POWi and FITB.

FITB might be more attractive (to short) because it just did start its dive while the others have been diving for a while. Good luck to all in this awful market.

SHORTed TWTC and SWC today.

Going to add FITB to my short watchlist looks good

Here's an interesting article on DHI and other hoembuilders:

http://tinyurl.com/kv5yd

Blood is on the streets! I love it!!

Will try to cover NVAX tomorrow @ 4.20 if I have the chance with a nice gain of less than 25% ;) ;)

Never shorted a stock myself, but recently made a nice one day gain playing a bounce on ESCL.  But their parent company has been investigated for fraud, word has it they wont have much business without them.  The bounce came on them saying they were not being accused of anything themselves, but class action suits are coming in heavy, and its hard to see what more they can do to fix things from here.

So, again I have no experience shorting and would suggest anyone who wants to short this does some serious DD, but thought I would throw it out there as an idea.

Anybody shorting FITB??

I probably will if it doesn't gap down too much. I rather see it go up closer to the 200 MA for a better entry.

The stock broke support and trendline. It is now trading underneath MA's. Wish me luck ;)

rafael

p.s. the market is set to open up a bit higher, this might enable us to get the entry price we need

FITB looks like a good short...
As you said, broke support...
MACD looks bearish
ADX below 20
RSI just above oversold... good entry point...

Good luck ... I might sell short too...
B

Keep ESLR on your watchlist for short next day or two might be a good time to enter. Shorting in the 13s looks good set a stop in the high 13s or at 14.

STP looks good for a short. Released nice earnings today stock popped up +19% but hit strong resistance line at 32.90. I would try to short STP near the top resistance. Set a tight stop!

QuoteAnybody shorting FITB??

Yes I'm shorting FITB  ( I mentioned it originally here I think)

Also shorting ANDE as of this am.

scratch STP shorting for today... To many shorts are covering just blew thru resistance. Put on watchlist might be a good short in 2 days or so watch the movement at 34.77 if it can not break thru it will eventually fall if the market keeps up with the way its acting. 34.70-35.00 looks like the next good area to short put a tight stop on this guy.
///////

Also watch DHI for a shorting oppertunity, its up over 1.5% today if market goes red expect this to tank. Looks like a good entry between 28 and 29. (Im shorting atm at 27.97)

Covered ANDE for a 12% gain in one day! I didn't expect to drop that much, wow!

Still shorting DHI, FITB, POWI.

Long: ACTG, ALTI

I'm 50% cash.

I shorted more DHI today at 28.25. Im now shorting DHI, CA, and FITB. What are you guys shorting? Post your short picks and what you may enter lets try to make money here  ;D

I am shorting IPAS and GIGM...
GIGM - rasing wedge and IPAS a flag...

cheers
B....

Again, market took a beating... I'm still trying to short GIGM, still no shares available in my broker.... I believe GIGM is trying to close the GAP around $8 area ;)

Shorting Opportunities:

TXT: Broke 50sma, negative MACD, Topping out $96+
URS: Top end of ascending channel, 10% gain target on pullback to bottom of channel
CHD: Bearish 50/200 cross, 10% gain target on pullbacl to support
HANS: TAke a look at the TIE chart, then predict what HANS 'could do' Huge volume increase might be setting up blow off top after massive extended run.
XLTC: Tight stop above $30 may seek to fill the gap and a bit more 10% gain target.
ZLC: Bad news all round on this company, making some sort of dead cat bounce, might be nice to short into the strength. I have this short on a tight stop just above $25.
DHI: Already mentioned I have this short from around $29.

I used 1 year weekly charts to make first pass on the above list.

Good luck

Watching HANS as well tomorrow might be intresting might short soon it looks like it may come crashing down very soon.

Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 12:17:36 AM
Watching HANS as well tomorrow might be intresting might short soon it looks like it may come crashing down very soon.

What is ur broker Nullzero? could u short everything u trying to short?

scottrade no problems here... so far havent had any stocks that said i couldnt short.

Quote from: nullzero on May 19, 2006, 01:05:57 AM
scottrade no problems here... so far havent had any stocks that said i couldnt short.

Man, I have to open scottade account then... TDAmeritrade is a pain in the A** I can't even short GIGM >:( >:(

hey Terliso - I'm with TDAmeritrade as well. No shares available? I've had this problem with them before with other stocks. Too bad cause GIGM looks like it's about to put in a Niagra Falls formation. I'm going to open a second account with Interactive Brokers and pull some cash out of Ameritrade. One thing IB allows that Ameritrade doesn't is shorting on stocks under $5. Wouldn't it have been nice to short GV at $2.80 last week ;) Or the overbought mining stocks that were trading in the 2's, 3's and 4's.

Im going to short GIGM tomorrow set the stop loss at 10.30.. Going for 1000shrs to boot if I can get it.

So GIGM is that bad that everyone wants to short?  I saw Melf's post about rising wedge.

How is that different from consolidation up around 10?

And if GIGM is this bearish, maybe it would be an idea to sell some short term calls at 10 (no longer than July 06).

shorted 1000shrs of GIGM today at 9.81

GIGM droping fast... So far its a good short not alot of buying volume mostly sells and shorts

I have no confidence in the market for the summer, but I don't think the bull is dead yet.  Decided not to sell calls on GIGM, because 1) little liquidity with very few other options on GIGM at this point so manipulation should be easy for those who do that  >:D,  2) GIGM can bring suprises and volatility.
Looks like you guys are making a good bet, but I can easily take low 8's on GIGM.  Time to sell GIGM would have been at the highs to rebuy in  8's.

What about short on XMSR?   short low and sell lower theory

Good for you nullzero, ;)

I don't know if I missed a good entry for GIGM today. .I thought it would touch the 10.00.area before going down.

===========

I missed my covering at low 9s it shot back to 9.70s and I was force to cover extra 1k I shorted at 9.14... ;( GIGM is dangerous lol can loose your shirt in it fast. Still alot of bull power in it

both IPAs and GIGM are on my short list.. never been more happy to see red....

HANS could be good.  Is this a double top break below 173 support in the making?

Possible target in the low 140's?

Yeah have an eye on HANS i just closed my last long position sold AOB for a -7% loss or so at 5.56. I am now shorting DHI, FITB, CA, GIGM

-- The Bull Measured move for GIGM has met, GIGM needs to retrace.
-- GIGM still a good short to own my estimated target would be about $7.90 to $7.50

Quote from: Terliso on May 20, 2006, 01:25:26 AM
-- The Bull Measured move for GIGM has met, GIGM needs to retrace.
-- GIGM still a good short to own my estimated target would be about $7.90 to $7.50

Darn it!!.... I did not get the shares this should have been a good short in my portfolio
I tried to short it last week @ 10.42  :(

I don't understand why 3SOF does not have at least 1 short in the portfolio.
COMPQ penetrated the moving averages  50, 200(SMA) 200(EMA).

I shorted GIGM friday at 9.55 avg. I covered at 8.90... unfortunately a little early :(.

short picks for tomorrow is....

KKD
GROW
and gigm....

Wish me luck:P

cheers
B

My shorts continue to do well. FITB,DHI,POWI are still in downtrends and my buy stops have not been hit

QuoteI don't understand why 3SOF does not have at least 1 short in the portfolio.

I agree Terliso, 3sof should have at least one short. They've done it before in  markets that didn't look quite as bad as this one does now.

Good luck to all.

Im in shorting DHI, FITB, and CA. So far so good :) I covered the GIGM short to early  :-\

Beroz,

I don't know if it is an important factor but check this out,

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=kkd&submit=Enter

I see the short float a high already. Just be careful in case of a sharp rebound to squeeze the shorts.
Good luck tomorrow,

rafael ;)
p.s. i might join you with GROW, hopefully it will bounce a bit to the upside so we can catch a nice entry.

DHI a nice and steady short

I agree with the price target it looks like a very easy reward for the risk :). Looking at the chart 15 seemed to be even in play but not if there was a worse case situation for DHI with huge earnings disapointments. I was planning to cover around 20-22 range. Will just update the stop on the way down :).

Quote from: Terliso on May 22, 2006, 12:57:17 PM
I don't understand why 3SOF does not have at least 1 short in the portfolio.
COMPQ penetrated the moving averages  50, 200(SMA) 200(EMA).

I guess they think the bottom is near. 3Stocks is buying IHR tomorrow and I think it would actually make a better short. Chart looks way extended.

The velocity and magnitude of the downturn caught many by suprise.  Probably expected a bounce in past two days.

Now is probley a good time to short DHI its at 27.41 atm near the HOD it gapped up on now news today.

In-short with you guys on DHI at 27.18.....

I'd like to see DHI touch the trendline around 27.60 area, for a more powerful retracement. ;)

While on the other thread has some serious discussion about their losses in this pure market massacre.....  ---->Lets look in the market for possible short play ;)

Quote from: Terliso on May 20, 2006, 12:24:31 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on May 19, 2006, 09:59:57 PM

So my question is, did anyone else slash and burn positions before the worst of the lows, and if so what made you see it coming? Or what things do others look for to spot peaks?

1) Price Divergence --- this indicates that the bullls are getting weaker ;)

Quote from: Terliso on May 20, 2006, 12:37:30 AM
The action in NASDAQ for today is just a minor bounce, we haven't seen the low yet ;)

Quote from: Terliso on May 20, 2006, 12:46:55 AM
NASDAQ broke the 50(SMA), 200(EMA) & 200(SMA) .... As said before NASDAQ is very weak :(

It may bounce again next week but the downtrend will continue I believe :(

Nasdaq closes @ low of day, very ugly... So put a tight stop on ur Longs for tomorrow & the rest of this week ;)

Dow Jones

Bears are very strong let's play in the strong side:

Shorts List:
INTC, AMAT, SMH, TXN, BRCM, QCOM

Quote from: Terliso on May 24, 2006, 01:34:37 AM
Bears are very strong let's play in the strong side:

Shorts List:
INTC, AMAT, SMH, TXN, BRCM, QCOM

RFMD, PALM, KLAC, VRSN

Up  9% on my little XMSR short.  Would have been nice to get it in low 20s.

Still keeping an eye on HANS.

Thanks for posting your picks Terlisa.

check DHI out today had a slight rally off crappy news I would say http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060524/economy.html?.v=4  the reality will hit and it should sink :P I would definately aim to short in the 27.60-27.70s if you can get it

Shorted 1500shrs of NVAX at 5.15.

Watch HOM  looks like good for shorting.... BULL measured move has been completed just like GIGM

Im in Hans for a few.  Its below 170 and stopping in low 140s?

Quote from: SmartWrasse on May 24, 2006, 01:15:57 PM
Im in Hans for a few.  Its below 170 and stopping in low 140s?

Well, I shorted HOM just a few minutes ago @ $12.47.... I put a stop @ $13.20 high of today

HOM dropped fast after I shorted it.... It's sitting now @ 12.15 low of the day so far

Nice trade Terliso. I'm still holding my shorts and doing well, specially POWI which was mentioned by you here first, thanks.

I got worked on HOM I was on the long side at 13.27 still holding I should close my position but i know HOM and it likes always coming back up. Nice trade on HOM btw wish I chose the downside.

hi,
tried to short hom at 12.55 , couldn't get in .let's see if it bounces
maxi

Quote from: Terliso on May 24, 2006, 01:34:11 PM
HOM dropped fast after I shorted it.... It's sitting now @ 12.15 low of the day so far

Covered half of my position @ $12.06
It's a quick trade ;)

Quote from: echo on May 24, 2006, 01:40:47 PM
Nice trade Terliso. I'm still holding my shorts and doing well, specially POWI which was mentioned by you here first, thanks.

No problem.. applaud u for the trade ;)

HOM probley will close modestly down like -5% anything over 12.00 is a sign that there is a chance of recovery I think. HOM looks just like GIGM down big in one day and then a bounce few days later with flat trading.

Anyone else shorting NVAX?

Please join me in shorting PSTA....
PARABOLIC raise = PARABOLIC FALL :P

B >:D

Quote from: nullzero on May 24, 2006, 01:57:30 PM
Anyone else shorting NVAX?

NVAX is a purely speculative play... I just covered this one few days ago if it hits 5.50 again tomorrow I will short it ;)

It needs to close the 0.37 GAP ;)

Tried shorting NVAX earlier today but no shares available:

Order No. 2130266141   Novavax Inc Com              Entered:10:56:36 05/24/06     
Order Canceled: We're sorry, but this stock is not available to sell short.

I covered NVAX at 5.10 was hoping for a drop below 5.00 doesnt look like its going to happen strong support there at 5.05

Shorted BRCD just now .... ;)

HOM

my luck NVAX crashes thru resistance and goes to my target cover area at 4.90s damn

Quoted from this board: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5460.msg63452#msg63452

Quote from: Terliso on May 13, 2006, 12:41:48 AM

Quote from: Terliso on May 07, 2006, 04:44:38 PM
Shorts Lists: take ur pick ;)

UNH, EBAY, CHS, POWI, BKHM, ADI, SCT, MCO, PANC, CYH, HHGP, LOJN...

Added some potential shorts

PG, JNPR, TEVA, ERTS, MXIM, LEH(my target $61.00), COH, AMZN, NUAN, SWKS, ADBE, JLG

Have fun!! ;)

Shorts pick posted on May 07. 2006 if you just sold all these in the opening bell of MAY 08, 2006 you could be a rich man by now... ;) not that rich ;)
 
          Buy Price          Current price         Gain/Loss
UNH    $46.15               $42.09              8.80%
EBAY  $32.55               $30.20                7.22%
CHS    $29.51               $30.04                1.80%
POWI  $19.59               $17.50              10.67%
BKHM  $5.09                 $4.13                18.86%
ADI     $35.63               $33.39              6.29%
SCT    $21.00               $19.40                7.62%
MCO    $58.25              $53.66                7.88%
PANC   $6.06                $5.77                  4.78%
CYH     $35.00              $36.78                5.08%
HHGP   $14.47              $11.00                23.98%
LOJN    $20.96              $17.06                18.61%



Shorts pick posted on May 13, 2006 (if you just short it @ the opening bell of 05-15-06 you could have made some fortune:)

        Buy Price            Current price        Gain/Loss
PG      $54.69               $54.82              0.24%
JNPR   $16.80               $14.55              13.39%
TEVA  $38.04               $35.56              6.52%
ERTS   $44.94               $44.00              2.09%
MXIM   $32.26               $31.75              1.58%
LEH     $69.45               $64.33              7.37%
COH    $30.36               $28.43              6.36%
AMZN  $32.55               $35.19              8.11%
NUAN  $10.62               $9.48                10.73%
SWKS  $6.35                $5.52                  13.07%
ADBE   $31.86              $29.27                8.13%
JLG      $24.17              $21.53                10.92%

Timing & Patience are just 2 of the key of success in the market ;)

Dear Terliso,

WOW!!I truly admire your talent, hard work and instinct for the stock market. A good model to follow. As always, ahead of the curve!! The proof that there is only one side to the stock market, the right side.  Applause!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

rafael  ;)

You still shorting BRCD? terilso

Quote from: mexirafa on May 25, 2006, 12:13:38 AM
Dear Terliso,

WOW!!I truly admire your talent, hard work and instinct for the stock market. A good model to follow. As always, ahead of the curve!! I proof that there is only one side to the stock market, the right side.  Applause!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

rafael  ;)

Thanks u so much Mexirafa ;)

Quote from: nullzero on May 25, 2006, 12:51:19 AM
You still shorting BRCD? terilso

I'm stil holding it, I am on RED now though :(



I got some advice for the 3SOF community including myself...
If you can combine all these rules & strategy for picking stocks you can surely & continuously beat the Stock Market.

1) Money... Never lose your stake, Always reserve some cash just like the U.S Military reserving soldiers & ready for battle.
2) Money Management - Diversify your money
3) Technical Analysis
4) Fundamental Analysis
5) Bulls or Bears - Analyze the direction of the market, trade only at the right side of the market (Long or Short it does not matter as long as you make money.
6) Timing -- timing is very important for entering & exiting.    
7) Patience -- (Time is Time, Money is Money)
8. Control your emotion - (Fear,Greed. Hope) emotion kicks in right after entering the trade.  
9) First loss, is the best loss - Learn how to cut your losses fast if you feel & found out that your trade is going against you.
10) Let the profit run, Don't let the profit turn into a loss
11) Always analyze your past trades -- never close the book
12) Passion in the market - without it, forget it
13) Most of all love don't forget our Creator up there ;)

Goodluck!!

Quote from: Terliso on May 24, 2006, 01:51:48 PM

Quote from: Terliso on May 24, 2006, 01:34:11 PM
HOM dropped fast after I shorted it.... It's sitting now @ 12.15 low of the day so far

Covered half of my position @ $12.06
It's a quick trade ;)

Covered the other half of the position ;)

COO looks like a good short... BROKE the 200


--- another one UEPS ;)

shorted some shares of HANS at 178.70.. looks good to me, seems to be trending slowly downward MACD is negative.. RSI slowly failing. PE is way to high for HANS espcially in a market like this. Looks like there is a chance HANS can head to its 50DMA at 144.

I don't know what is holding HANS up.  Some RS but I think it will succumb to market.

Closed out my XMSR short for 23% after the gap down.  Not bad for rookie shorter.  That was weak stock getting even more weak.

Hom is still sinking...
I think its becuase of
1) obviously the stock market is bearish
2) forecast for hurricanes is approx 1/11 this year
3) President and Chairman have been selling some of their stocks
Think it is not too late to get in. Hom spikes up in the mornings and proceed to tank mid day....


Good luck all... ;D

I called HOM wrong and im down on it pretty big. However I believe this is temperary drop in PPS. Im holding and waiting

Looks like the bears might be in control... pentrated the 50 EMA... If it closes below the 50 EMA, I would suggest selliing Null...

Volume is high too.....

Good luck all...
B

I already sold at 9.89 today... I lost big on HOM and was my mistake. I underestamated the bear power! Looking back i wish i never re entered HOM.

The market seems to be having a nice good up day.. seems to be holding HOM up... bounced off the 50 EMA nicely... this may take it up a little.

lets wait and see...
b >:D

HANS is looking better by the minute for a short :) im down 2% so far on my trade but I feel that HANS will have a decent pullback soon.

HANS may finally be coming around to play.  Solid volume down so far.

Yah hans giving in today. I expect it can drop more then it has now im short 50 shares on it.

I still have HOM :P

i feel bad but good at the same time...
good luck all...

ALERT-  Stocklemon.com sending emails on HOM

hehe Major tankage on HOM! :( I pulled out at 9 today didnt like the way it was trading.

Quote from: boatguy on June 06, 2006, 10:50:53 AM
ALERT- Stocklemon.com sending emails on HOM

wow BG.. I really like he site... it is informative and funny at the same time... love it..
thanks
B

hi,
the only thing that is showing green on my screen is my short pick lol
brcd >:(
maxi

LOL same here BRCD only thing green I was looking at it saying come on sink sink!!

oh well,
gonna put my satop in at 630 and go out for the day. glta
maxi

HOM-Trading halt? :o

yes halted I was going to short HOM at 6.70 little earlier but was figuring it wasnt worth it with the crazy voltility and a possibly halt.

The trading never stopped though.  NASD was still active and now PACX in in there and the stock is moving up.  Any thoughts?

peix - ready to short ? target MA 50

Hi !

This is just a draft of what could be a trading setup for a Short on CTSH.

I was thinking to add this short position to 3SOF Portfolio, and then I step back... I believe we need a major confirmation from NDX before we start taking some strategic shorts for the Public Portfolio (please see my NDX Analysis on World Markets (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5772.0) board).

Trading Idea:
- CTSH made a double top above $69
- Its ascending support was broken last week, and it was retested a few days later.
- We can start plotting what could be a Head & Shoulders inversion pattern, considering shoulder 1 top at $61.20 (April 4) and Shoulder 2 top at $63.90 (last week), the neck is an ascending line right now at $57.50. If this pattern comes to be triggered (breaking down the neckline), the downside target could be around $45 (technically speaking).

2 Possible setups:
- Short CTSH now, with a stop at $64 (this means, not waiting for the H&S confirmation, and using S2 as a stop trigger with about 5% risk)
- (Standby setup) Wait for the neckline to be broken, and short CTSH at $57, putting a 5% stop loss.

Risk: CTSH is a very solid company, with an incredible business concept and apparently great fundamentals.... Very popular (although CTSH is already a 120 bagger from the lows of 1998) ;)

Any inputs about this trading idea?

Best regards !

Its nice to see the team is considering entering in short positions for the profolio. Looks good ramsburg might join in on the short side.

Quote from: Ramsburg on June 08, 2006, 01:22:41 AM
Any inputs about this trading idea?

Frederick,

I like CTSH as a short.  The print of 61.35 on June 5 was a "sell short" pivot.  The stock closed yeaterday at 61.06, very near there.

Review:

Solid green line is similar to an 8-day price-related MACD
Solid red line is similar to a 22-day price-related MACD
Vertical lines are the "Cloud," which acts as support or resistance

1. The green line had a Bearish Cross below the red line in March.  The stock closed below them, but it closed above the Cloud.  Still bullish, but that's a "warning."  We don't want to see the stock close below the Cloud.  That would be another "warning." 

No problem.  CTSH quickly rallied, and the green line made a Bullish Cross above the red line.

2. In mid-April, CTSH had a 4-day selloff.  The green line remained above the red line, so no Bearish Cross, and the stock found support right at the top of the Cloud, then rallied to a new high.

No problem.  Still bullish.

3. In early May, there was a 2-day selloff and CTSH found support right at the red line, then rallied.  That low was 60.75, which some players will use to raise their stop on a long position when the stock makes a new high, which it did.

No problem.  Still bullish.

4. May 22, CTSH sold off to the top of the Cloud, and the green line made a Bearish Cross of the red line.  WARNING.  It also printed a low of 60.57, stopping out anyone who used the prior low of 60.75 as stop.  WARNING.

5. May 23 was a weak rally that failed at the green line.  The high was 64.31.  The stock closed down on the day.

6. May 24 through May 30, CTSH tried to find support at the bottom of the Cloud.  Cloud support held until May 31, when the stock clearly closed below it.  WARNING.

7. After a close below the Cloud, the short-term picture is bearish.  The Cloud now is "overhead," so it acts as RESISTANCE.  Often, a stock fails on a rally to the bottom of the Cloud, or it fails at/near the top of the Cloud.

In this case, CTSH rallied to 63.90 near the top of the Cloud on a Bearish Doji Star Hangman candle, on June 2.  The open and the close were within one penny.

The top of the Cloud is at 64.135.  The low of the June 2 Bearish Doji Star Hangman candlestick was 61.36, so as I said at the outset, 61.35 was a "sell short" pivot.

The June 1-2 rally to the top of the Cloud also was a "second chance" for those who didn't exit long positions on the break of 60.75, when the stock made a "lower low."

8. After a 2-day selloff to the green line, on June 6, CTSH rallied from the green line to the bottom of the Cloud.  Yesterday, the stock rallied a little bit into the Cloud, but it then reversed to the downside.

Summary:

The short-term picture is bearish.  The stock is showing failures and weakness at resistance.  Barring a big gap up, there's not much risk on a short.  Cover above 64.31, which was the May 23 high when CTSH failed at the green line, just after the Bearish Cross.  Risk: a loss of roughly 5.3%.

shorted today near 60, up over 1% now

Drat!  I entered an order to short CTSH at limit 61.05, but they gapped it down to 60.49.  The high so far is 60.59, three cents below Tuesday's 60.63 low.  EDIT: FOUR cents below Tuesday's low. 

IDCC 12 days up today its turning down

Shorted today. bad qtr, institutions upgrading!! Recent acquisition trashed their bottom line, but revenues were strong. Will keep this on a close leash as institutions showing a lot of support for the stock.

Shares of Shuffle Master Inc. (SHFL) were down 7.5% Friday, the day after the gambling equipment maker reported robust revenue growth in its fiscal second quarter but came up short of Wall Street's expectations for the bottom line.

After the close of trading Thursday, Shuffle Master said it lost $12.7 million, or 37 cents a share, in the period ended April 30, a turn from a year-ago profit of $6.8 million, or 19 cents a share. Taking out various charges and acquisition-related expenses, the gambling equipment company would have earned 21 cents a share on a continuing operations basis - a penny short of the average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call.

However, revenue came in at a record $43.3 million, up 60%, and more than $4 million ahead of the Street view. Also, the company said it still expects to earn $1.02 to $1.05 a share for the full fiscal year.

At least one analyst saw opportunity in the valuation slide. In a note to investors, Aimee Marcel of Jefferies & Co. maintained a buy rating and $36 price target on the stock.

"We do not believe these results are truly reflective of what the company can do, and this could make for a good entry point," Marcel wrote. "The company's revenues were up 60% year-over-year, reporting a record 1,200 shuffler sales, and its international mix jumped from 25% of the business to almost 50% of the business."

Shuffle Master shares recently were down $2.76 at $34

Happy to be back from Mexico. it was fun, specially after winning the first game in the World Cup. ;)
========================================================
This thread has developed very nicely and I am glad to see some of you pulling some green in this market.:D

I am very concerned as many of you about the entire market environment but I am most concerned about the 3SOF Public Portfolio. The YTD performance has diminished dramatically.

With all due respect, I don't understand why to bet 50% of the portfolio in long positions (only 1 is the green) when everything seems to keep going down so far not a single short position. Are we still waiting for major signal from the overall market to change direction?? I am surprise the 3sof Team has not reacted to the present conditions since they are well known to be ahead of the curve. I am a newbie in this business and I guess I must be missing something that makes the 3SOF team invest in long positions. So far I have done what I think it is a safe bet right now which is to sit on my hands and preserve capital.

As always, good luck to you guys and hope you make some cash on these trades$$$
Rafael 8)

Im looking at NEW for a short here is a quick overview and chart of this mortgage lender.

"New Century Financial Corporation operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It originates and purchases mortgage loans through two divisions, Wholesale and Retail. The Wholesale division provides loans through a network of independent mortgage brokers and correspondent lenders. It also originates mortgage loans through its FastQual Website at www.newcentury.com, where a broker uploads a loan request. The Retail division operates and originates loans through a consumer-direct channel and a builder/realtor channel, including radio, direct mail, telemarketing, television advertising, and the Internet."

Homebuilders were first... Mortgage lenders are soon to follow

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08036755381

looking at the chart 50 DMA broken a few days ago 200 DMA right below... support that was in the 44-46 range is broken... cover target 30-35? what do you guys think

Quote from: mexirafa on June 13, 2006, 11:49:51 AM

..... so far not a single short position..... So far I have done what I think it is a safe bet right now which is to sit on my hands and preserve capital.

As always, good luck to you guys and hope you make some cash on these trades$$$
Rafael 8)

You have probably done better than most. ;)   
I am only guessing about the lack of shorting but maybe the complications of shorting have been giving them pause: (1) margin accounts needed, (2) limitations of IRA's, (3) shares not always available in obvious short stocks, and many others I guess.  The  3SOF community is diverse.