Considering the makert is near the top of the range its been trading. It is more then likely the market will turn south today or next week at some point. Giving a good shot at shorting and profiting. Was wondering what you guys have been looking at for some short plays. Hopefully this thread can generate some screaming shorts I will try to add what shorts I am considering or going into as well. >:D >:D >:D >:D Let the shorting began >:D >:D >:D >:D
So far AAPL and PHM are most recent short picks.
Shorted LYO today at 22.42 aiming for a 2-5% gain.
Shorted CTCI earlier today at 24.38 avg covered at 23.17 for a +5% profit.
Dow looks like its near its top.
Morning Nulzero
Keep up the good posts..
BIDU thinking about shorting... It broke support at 75.91 that had held since the last earnings gap up, on yesterdays gap down.. thoughts..
cheers Joe
Thanks joe
I dont think BIDU is a screaming short since its already been smacked down big. Look for some stocks that have gained big momentum today that will likely go down alot if the market changes. Take a look at the HBs there all good shorts today DHI, PHM, and CTX all look good take your pick :). AAPL still looks good if the market turns its in for some trouble. BRCD looks like an easy short for 5% gain, short BRCD now good chance to get 5.80s to 5.90s next week.
Shorted 1k BRCD at 6.14 just a min ago. >:D
Check out DECK for a short on monday. It went up 16% on friday from earnings news. It closed at strong resistance and is sitting very close to the 52wk high. High chance DECK is going to retrace some back, espically if the market doesnt head up next week. I think DECK looks like a good short if the resistance holds strong. On another note DECK's short intrest was 25% of the float, this is what can probley be explained for the sharp rise in PPS. DECK just had a major short squeeze if the bull power isnt there to suport new 52wk highs and break of resistance it may be a screaming short to get a fast gain of 5-10%. I believe most shorts have gotten squeeze out and already covered on DECK. The bull power may slow down soon and this DECK may break once again. >:D
Quote from: nullzero on July 29, 2006, 09:19:11 PM
Check out DECK for a short on monday. It went up 16% on friday from earnings news.
nullz,
I've been thinking this weekend, looking at some of these charts after earnings, that we're missing the boat not looking at these charts BEFORE earnings come out, to see if/where we would want to take a position, long or short, after we see the market's response to earnings.
In the case of DECK, for example, if we had looked at it ahead of Friday's earnings release, would we have seen any opportunity, long or short?
Yep.
DECK had put in a "W"-Bottom, at 33.74 and 33.36. (Interestingly, those two lows both were in a gap area from the April, 2005 big gap down).
The middle of the "W" was 39.06, so we would have known ahead of earnings that a print of 39.07 was a "W"-bottom breakout.
Thursday, the day ahead of earnings, the high on the day was 39.00, then the stock sold off, all the way down to 37.14 into the close. Obviously, there was some nervousness about holding long ahead of earnings, and probably some shorting just below the 39.05...39.06...39.04 early July highs (resistance).
We wouldn't have been in Harm's Way, holding long prior to earnings, but we would have been prepared to buy a print of 39.07
after the release of earnings.
Friday morning, DECK opened at 38.885, just below the 39.07 breakout number. The low on the day was 39.50. I'd have to look at an intraday chart, but I would imagine that low got printed shortly after the open, then the 39.07 breakout got printed.
Mentally, it would have been difficult (at least for me) to buy the 39.07 print because, at that point, the stock already was up $1.93 from Thursday's 37.14 close, and I generally don't like to chase a stock that is up that much on the day, but let's think about that. It was a breakout, and it only was seven cents above Thursday's high of 39.00, where longs got nervous, and
mistakenly sold.
Actually, a print of 39.01 on Friday, a penny above Thursday's 39.00 high, was a pretty good indication of, "Oops...we goofed selling the stock off like we did on Thursday."
Buying DECK at 39.07, already up 1.93 on the day, I wouldn't have expected much more rally on Friday, but what a nice surprise if we had bought it, seeing it close at 43.31!
Quote
On another note DECK's short intrest was 25% of the float, this is what can probley be explained for the sharp rise in PPS. DECK just had a major short squeeze...
Well, okay then, maybe not so surprising. ;D >:D
The rally was fueled by a lot of short-covering as well as additional buying from breakout players. That short interest also would have been a nice bit of information, ahead of earnings.
Quote
The bull power may slow down soon and this DECK may break once again. >:D
Interestingly, this "W"-Bottom measures a target of 44.76 IN PLAY, a penny above the April 44.75 hgih, if you use the Right Leg low of 33.36 to measure:
37.06 - 33.36 = 5.70 Points + 37.06 = Target: 44.76 IN PLAY
In general, we don't want to short stocks like DECK, that are looking strong. "Short weakness, not strength." But, if DECK ralliies to a possible Double Top in the target zone, and starts looking weak off the intraday chart, or has a downside takeout of a Bearish Hangman on the daily chart, a short with a low-risk stop above the high wouldn't be a bad play at all.
Meanwhile...if DECK pulls back, say 50% of Friday's candle, which would be about 41.17, or 61.8% to 40.53, which is very near the June 7 high of 40.63, I'd consider a long position in it for a ride to the 44.38-44.76 target zone that is IN PLAY.
The 44.38 target, by the way, is the measurement from the Left Leg of the W-Bottom:
39.06 - 33.74 = 5.32 Points + 39.06 = Target: 44.38 IN PLAY
Yeah I know what your talking about melf. Its depressing to miss all these good long plays, my bearish outlook is one of the causes im not taking the chance and going long on alot of plays. I have also been wary of holding any position through earnings, uncertain what the market will do to the stock. (exception with PHM, I knew that stock was going to have bad earnings.) I think my approach has been take your position long or short after earnings are released and try to ride the stock with the tide of the market. DECK would of been a great example of taking a position long right after earnings. With DECK's case I wouldnt short it unless it meets the overhead resistance and is rejected on high volume and sell off. The market direction would also need to be on the side of the trade.
DECK is down little over -2% so far its looking good on the short side. However I didnt take a position in DECK this morning.
New short that im looking at is NGPS a short emailing letter shorted it today. The chart looks like its due for a pullback short interest is at about 5% of the float it has declined recently which would lead me to believe that any further short squeeze is slim to none. Will post a chart of NGPS later.
Quote from: nullzero on July 30, 2006, 06:49:38 PM
Yeah I know what your talking about melf. Its depressing to miss all these good long plays, my bearish outlook is one of the causes im not taking the chance and going long on alot of plays
nullz,
Nothing wrong with having a bearish outlook. The market has been bearish, and you're trying to follow the trend. What we
don't want to do, is get stuck in a bullish or bearish outlook when the market is telling us something different.
Quote
I have also been wary of holding any position through earnings, uncertain what the market will do to the stock.
With good justification. It's not a bad idea to protect yourself against an exteme move against you at earnings.
Quote
I think my approach has been take your position long or short after earnings are released and try to ride the stock with the tide of the market. DECK would of been a great example of taking a position long right after earnings
Yeah, especially when we had good reason for taking a postion, with that pattern breakout play in DECK. Otherwise, there's no need to force taking a position in a stock.
Quote
With DECK's case I wouldnt short it unless it meets the overhead resistance and is rejected on high volume and sell off.
Right.
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The market direction would also need to be on the side of the trade.
It sure helps to trade with the market, but some stocks are bullish in a bear market, and the reverse. All depends on the individual chart.
Quote from: nullzero on July 31, 2006, 12:04:05 PM
DECK is down little over -2% so far its looking good on the short side. However I didnt take a position in DECK this morning.
I've been watching DECK this morning, too. Even though it's down some, I think you were wise to leave it alone with that upside target that is IN PLAY. After Friday's big rally, a pullback here is to be expected, but Friday was a strong day, and DECK could be right back in our faces on a rally to the target if we had shorted it.
Im keeping my eyes on NGPS for a short sell entry possibly soon. The chart shows that NGPS is extremely overbought in the short term with its RSI sitting at 78. NGPS ran on news from good earnings which triggered a short squeeze. NGPS looks like a good short play with a hold between 1 day and 2 weeks. I will keep a closer watch if it advances more or makes a move for the downside. Cover target would be in the 39.00s with a profit target between 5-10%.
Covered LYO today for a 1% profit.
Still holding onto PHM which is turning more bearish by the day (currently up over 5% on PHM... plan to hold and cover between 5-15%)
Here is a chart of PHM... Just broke through 50dma heading down. RSI is heading down below 50. MACD is heading to negative territory. PHM is currently sitting very close to strong support at 28.38. A strong move down through this support would break the back of the stock once again and put 26.00s or lower as a possible target.
Intresting enough DECK pulled back to 40.78 today. Today would of been a good day to cover deck with a 4-5% profit. NGPS is pulling back as well down 3.77% right now. PHM down about -2% today.
Quote from: nullzero on August 01, 2006, 11:08:36 AM
Intresting enough DECK pulled back to 40.78 today.
nullz,
Yeah, I thought it might hit the 40.53-40.63 support area. Close, but no cigar. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 30, 2006, 06:32:43 AM
[Meanwhile...if DECK pulls back, say 50% of Friday's candle, which would be about 41.17, or 61.8% to 40.53, which is very near the June 7 high of 40.63, I'd consider a long position in it for a ride to the 44.38-44.76 target zone that is IN PLAY.
Howdie all
shorting the health and organic food industry?? I have been watching WFMI since its last split ($75's) but never did pull the trigger... thoughts here? Big gap down, Melf will say shorting into the Hole... but the MRVL hole was pretty deep :o seems like a down trend is well established on WFMI so a short may be good for another 3-6% at least?? (Melf are there conditions that you do short into the hole?) How about the short side of OATS?
Any others out there?
Cheers Joe
WFMI should have some more short potential I think but might be risky though (short term). WFMI also pays a div. and has lower P/E then OATS... WFMI in the midterm looks bearish. OATS has the remote possibility of a take over target if the PPS drops to the right amount, but with a P/E of 69 and a heated competitive environment in this industry it looks like a nice short for OATS. However a recession will hit these more expensive nitch grocery stores harder then the standard bread and butter stores like Kroger's KR. OATS and WFMI will loose customers or volume of buying if a recession hits us hard (value shopper looking to save every dime). Also to note Kroger (KR), Safeway (SWY), and others are actively trying to take market share away from WFMI and OATS in the hot organic and natural food industry. As for shorting in the hole I think on WFMI it can be more risky in the short term but for a mid term short you should come out ahead I believe. WFMI has a lower short % of float which looks more attractive for a short then OATS. WFMI has 6.69 % of float short and OATS has 19.06 % of float short. I would hate to get caught in a short squeeze if one happened for OATS. Bag holders seem to be bailing on WFMI which is a good sign that a bearish mid to long term outlook hold true for WFMI. Also insiders are dumping alot of shares for both WFMI and OATS.
Currently WFMI is sitting at strong support in the 50.00s... I would wait and see if it wants to bounce slightly, if it breaks through the support in the 50.00s from the end of 2004. I would definately short, it may freefall down to the 30s. WFMI kind of looks like the HBs charts and also on a fundamental note, WFMI built many of there new stores next to new residential construction communities through out the states. In southern california I saw this first hand. They seemed to be expanding with the residential boom into new communties where rival stores were not established yet (this may be the core of there expansion plan). Now that construction is getting hammered I think there expansion will slow as well. The inflation and possibly recession will hurt OATS and WFMI .
In summary short OATS for short term drop to low 16.00s or high 15.00s. WFMI for a mid term short to possibly 30s-40s.
Some new shorts to put on watch list AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters), BBY (Best Buy), and ZMH (Zimmer Holdings).
AEOS technically looks extremely bearish... fundamentally negative outlook I would say decreasing consumer spending is going to hurt apparel. Insiders are picking up the selling... I like to get in this one very soon for a good short cover target possibly 24-29 on shorter term maybe even lower for a mid term. Short % of float is at about 4.00%. I like this one alot for a short play and want to enter very soon.
BBY would watch for an entry may rise slightly into the 45s or possibly upto 47. 45-47 screaming short on BBY I would say. Fundamentally there has been lowered spending in consumer electronics and new computers. BBY will get hit hard if the general market outlook gets even more bearish, the suprise good earnings gave a green light to short after the last rally. BBY has been down ever since that earnings rally. I couldnt imagine future earnings improving in the negative near future. EX. Consumers will say why do I need to pay $800 for a new laptop or computer im tight on money and gas is kicking my ass, I will just keep what I got and wear it out till im in better shape to get a new computer. BBY short % of float is at about 4.10%
ZMH would be a short term play on being overbought. RSI and MACD looked like there about topped off. Buying volume seems to be lowering. Short % of float is at about 1.3%... from the looks of it ZMH just recently squeezed the shorts and the fuel seems to be running out. >:D I want to short some ZMH very soon.
May short UARM (Under armor tomorrow) UARM in the right place at the right time for a short. Cramer bashed UARM badly with its high P/E and basically saying slower growth was due soon. Looking at UARM it looks like its heading for a big break down. Today UARM went down -2.86% but also took a hit of -1.79% in AH after the cramer bash. With a P/E at 78.47 there is to much speculation premium for a clothing company. The technicals look really bearish. UARM has STRONG RESISTANCE at 43.50... currently UARM looks like its ready to break down below support, in this market environment it may give the pressure to break the strong support.
(BKC Short) ---> You gotta check out BKC, a stock like this hitting new all-time low will tend to go down further ;)
BKC looks really good as well I never really like burger king. I can see there loosing market share against mc donalds, jack in the box, and wendys which are just tearing up burger king in my opinion with menu, advertising, and locations.
(AMKR Short) ----> Mark this post Nullzero, 200sma & 200ema has been broken again ;) It might hit $3.50 support again in the medium-term .... IMHO ;)
Current price $5.98
see you there @ support!! ;)
will add BKC and AMKR to my short stock list >:D
shorted some ZMH today at 66... ZMH due for a pullback.
Quote from: joet on August 01, 2006, 05:50:06 PM
(Melf are there conditions that you do short into the hole?)
No, Joe.
Quote from: Melf Elf on August 01, 2006, 11:38:12 AM
Quote from: nullzero on August 01, 2006, 11:08:36 AM
Intresting enough DECK pulled back to 40.78 today.
nullz,
Yeah, I thought it might hit the 40.53-40.63 support area. Close, but no cigar. ;)
nullz,
DECK is back to the earnings high. I never got a chance to buy it in the 40.53-40.63 support area, dang it. :(
yeah I saw that, I was sitting on the side lines I didnt want to enter a new long position.
Melf what you think of AEOS and ZMH?
Quote from: nullzero on August 02, 2006, 11:30:11 AM
Melf what you think of AEOS and ZMH?
nullz,
I don't like to comment unless I've done a fairly thorough analysis, after can offer the "whys and wherefores." Unfortunately, time doesn't permit, but I'll try to participate on an "as can" basis. Especially if it's a stock that I've already looked it.
I apologize to everyone fo the questions and messages to which I haven't responded. "So many stocks...so little time."
That said...
"Off the cuff" comment: ZMH has rallied so parabolically, it looks ripe for a short, as you said. It's now at a lot of resistance, but like APPL, it's been murderous on the shorts to this point, and stil is showing strength today.
Shorting here is a reasonable trade, though, with a stop either above today's high, which was within a penny of the last high, or a stop above one of the prior highs. That's not much risk.
It would nice if ZMH would gap down tomorrow below today's low, and leave a Bearish Abandoned Baby on the chart. ;)
A Bearish Abandoned Baby is like a Bearish Island Reversal, only it's a single candle that is "isolated" from the candles that lead into it, and from the candles that follow it.
Good luck.
Thanks Melf for the response... dont want to distract you to much, good luck with the trading. Market acting very wierd the last few weeks...
Interesting chart on DECK... zoomed up again and hit the resistance now trading slightly below resistance.
PHM is not going much of anywhere today more or less a neutral day for PHM. I suspect new home starts and other economic data coming out soon can have a negative effect on PHM... who knows though if the numbers suprise it can give a sudden prop in the short term. For PHM the following dates should have an effect on the PPS significantly;
8/8 (FED meeting)
8/16 (Building permits, housing starts, home completions)
8/23 (Existing home sales)
8/22 (TOL- Toll Brothers Q3 earnings release)
8/24 (New home sales)
When these important dates and events come up HBs have the risk of tanking more if the data comes in more negative then once expected. I plan on holding PHM through most if not all these events, unless the PPS significantly drops and its a good time to cover on a technical reason. Fundamentally all these events will more then likely further enhance a short position.
nullz,
I shorted your ZMH at 65.54 near the close. If we get a gap down below yesterday's low of 65.30 and it doesn't get filled, we've got the Bearish Abandoned Baby.
Bearish Abandoned Baby ZMH
Yipeee a short boat has come in for me.. maybe make up some AAPL loss, which is also looking bearish today...
ZMH was downgraded today... It just gapped down in the 63.00s. Already down more then -2% >:D.
Thinking that if AAPL fill the small gap up to 68.16 it could be a good short entry... it fiilled, and still going up
Melf we posted together about ZMH lets see if that gap fills? significance if it does or does not?
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on August 03, 2006, 09:43:21 AM
Melf we posted together about ZMH lets see if that gap fills?
Joe,
ZMH is moving higher toward the gap, now at 65.00 Hopefully, it won't fill the 65.30 gap,l and go back down.
Quote
significance if it does or does not?
It looks like at least a short-term top has been put in, in either case.
AAPL has some incredible strength... just when i thought it was rolling over for a day or so it is up over $1 now 69.20, Mid 69's should be resisance for a pull back, but my predictions about AAPL since the big gap up have been all backwards so I am playing that one on paper only for now (still have a small position on the short side)
Cheers Joe
Im going to try to hang in there on AAPL, just when you think its not going to pullback it usually does. AAPL reminds me of HANS i shorted that a while ago covered with a 7% loss and then check back two weeks later I would of been up like 5-10% on my short.
Mornin NULL, which way are you on AAPL... you posted that you may cover on the AAPL thread ::) and look at HANS now... Fun stuff this trading... Shortstocks.com just shorted more??? tempting but will wait for 71 if that happens
PHM short just got stoped out with a small gain (protective stop may short again if it hits 30)
ZMH short is looking good from 65.7
cheers
Joe
Im holding onto AAPL short, I made the same mistake with HANS a while back. Shortstocks.com is ran by a hedge fund I believe they have good leads on there shorts (I seem to think they know when downgrades or events are coming sometimes), if there shorting it more thats a good sign since there a hedge fund I believe. The bank of america upgrade the other day was just a cover to start dumping shares of AAPL for the big boys as well. AAPL is near very strong resistance at 70.00s I doubt it will break through if it does I will have to decide to hold or throw in the flag.
PHM short im holding dont be alarmed by this small gain today... DHI did the same for a while until it took an event to drive it down more. DHI which I shorted a while ago was trading at what seemed to be a bottom... was flat for a few weeks and actually went up like 2-3% from the trading range every so often. It finally gave way after a major news came out that it was slashing its earnings estimates. I think this month espically toward the mid to end of the month will give PHM a beating. Fed meeting... New Home Sales, TOL Q3 earnings. All those events have a high posssibility of sending PHM and the other HBs back to new 52wk lows.
ZMH short I like alot.. im going to hold and cover around 60 or a little lower. shortstocks.com has there cover target set at 58-60 I agree with there suggestion I believe that is a nice area to cover.
AEOS looks good to enter now for short. This +8% jump on better then expected retail sales was way over done. If I had some funds able to short today on AEOS >:D I would do it now or around 34.
ZMH Melf... the baby was rescued ;) !?!?!? this morning it touched 65.78 and has retraced some but not looking week. thoughts on how this pattern is shaping up? Cheers joe
PHM the home buiders are having a rally...
BRCD benefiting from AAPL decline.... short entry at top of channel here at 6.4 with a stop if it breaks above 6.55 (that is my trade on paper this AM)
AKAM and AEOS both apear to be over bought and continue up this AM watching for possible short entry
"Winning trades are profitable from the start." (paraphrased) Thanx Melf (applauded)
Cheers Joe
Quote from: joet on August 04, 2006, 10:05:50 AM
ZMH Melf... the baby was rescued ;)
Joe,
Yeah, that's good. I hate to see a baby get abandoned. ;D
Quote
it touched 65.78 and has retraced some but not looking week. thoughts on how this pattern is shaping up?
Nothing to add. It's rallying this morning, along with the general market. Our stop doesn't look to be in jeopardy, at least not
yet. :D
Quote
BRCD benefiting from AAPL decline.... short entry at top of channel here at 6.4 with a stop if it breaks above 6.55 (that is my trade on paper this AM)
I've favored the Bulls in BRCD.
Even though the company has the same "options probe" and re-statement of earnings issue as AAPL, it's held up very well, and has shown good relative strength.
But, I couldn't find a good re-entry long into BRCD. Last night, I was studying the chart, and realized that I needed to do a pattern re-draw. I'll show you the "redrawn" chart in the BRCD folder.
I didnt cover my PHM I thought it was very wierd how it gapped up today. It was a attempt to squeeze out shorts... It didnt squeeze me out... Also today HOV (Hovnanian) another HB just slashed its earnings outlook again! Hold onto the HBs shorts you will be rewarded ;). Im about -4% now in PHM since it gapped up and then declined rapidly. Im sure by next week I will be up on the PHM trade. ZMH may hit the resistance at 66.60 and fall back down.... I dont think ZMH is going to run much more espically with how the market is over extended.
Here is a potentially good short GRMN (Garmin).
Some info
Market Cap: 9.40B
P/E (ttm): 23.64
EPS (ttm): 3.67
Shares Short 7,838,650
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 4.1
Short % of Float 12.60 %
Shares Short - Prior 6,494,450
Short % Increase / Decrease 20.70 %
as of july 2006
Fundamentals look good but this downward trend seems to be pushed by longs looking to take profits and exit, shorts are also jumping in at full force. GRMN would make a good cover around 75-77, more then likely it will pullback to at least its 200dma on the way the chart looks. Longs seem to be panicing. The earnings were good, but it seemed to be a sell on news situation that started august 2nd when earnings were released.
RIG (short?) ???
Showing a bearish pattern but this stock is in a bullish industry since 2002 (Oil & Gas)
Might not be a good one for shorting ;)
Quote from: Terliso on August 06, 2006, 12:29:52 AM
RIG (short?) ???
Showing a bearish pattern but this stock is in a bullish industry since 2002 (Oil & Gas)
Might not be a good one for shorting ;)
Alister,
Very good. It looks way-y too obvious as a short, and I understand your fundamental concern. Maybe it's telegraphing something ???
Weekly volume on the break of the H&S top was the second heaviest in 10 years (that's as far as my charts go back). The heaviest volume in 10 years was February 17, on the selloff to the first data point on the neckline (70.05). That suggests confirmation of the break.
The 70.08 close, however, a hair above that 70.05, has me thinking a re-test of the broken neckline next week, and possibly a rally back inside the pattern to fill the 77.02 gap near the 50DMA.
Interesting find. Applause. You might want to start a folder on RIG so we can follow it. I couldn't find one.
EDIT: I typed the target wrong on the chart. It should be 51.40, not 50.40.
ZMH is boring, but broke Descending Triangle and today's 65.49-65.50 support. I'd like to see a close near 65.11 for a Bearish Engulfer.
ZMH is a slow mover right now but thats a good thing espically if the overall market trends with the bears.
ZMH boring agreed, my stop at 66.66 is in place, figure there will be movement in most markets after tommorrows fed meeting...
AKAM short in my favor, PHM is against me for a wash on those two... and AAPL UGH just spiked on Jobbs appearance but selling now..
If ZMH doesnot move inthe next 2-3 days I will probably cover to free up some funds.
I am trying my OMNI short at 11.60 (stop 12.47 target 9.34) with a small position
cheers joe
BRCD ;) NULZ i hope that you are still hoding your short here NIce wake up this AM, I nver jumped in
PHM Melf did you get stopped out this AM, curious to see if it holds the rally
ZMH threatening our stop as i write ???
AAPL getting some releif
AKAM steady, may cover to hold some profit, current protective stop is 41
OMNI the had their terriffic earninggs this AM, Gap filled and profit taking is happening, stop at 12.47, still short thinking that it will sell of some.
Cheers Joe
Yeap I just covered BRCD for 16% profit ;D ;D.
PHM still holding
ZMH still holding
AAPL still holding
I dont have any worries any of those shorts are going to move up much. The fed pause or raise is going to be a sell off on the markets I believe.
Quote from: joet on August 08, 2006, 09:52:20 AM
PHM Melf did you get stopped out this AM, curious to see if it holds the rally
yes, joe, i posted it in phm folder.
Quote
ZMH threatening our stop as i write ???
covered zmh short at 66.60. loss: 1.6%
ZMH it went past my stop limit order of 66.66 with out filling, RSI was getting high on the day so i moved the order to 66.95 for now... i realize that i should probably stick to the original plan... todays reasoning is that ZMH still appears to be overbought, look at the 2 year chart, the trend is down and on the 1 year chart all of the peaks are lower going forward even on better earnings. If the fed meeting causes a market sell off this should be one that declines... those are my thoughts on ZMH
Cheers Joe
I fully agree with you joet. ZMH is giving up its gains as we speak.
Anyone notice the similarities of the ZMH and AAPL charts? Intresting...
FED JUST PAUSED RATES! It looks like the buy on rumor sell on news on the markets. All my shorts are doing well >:D.
It may take a little bad news( like a downgrade) or a nasty market to take down ZMH. I dont see ZMH climing much more anytime soon but we may need a catalyst to bring down ZMH to cover for some nice profit.
Keep an eye on CFC it may be good to enter a short position soon. Im going to watch it and see if I can get a short position at or close to 38.
[CFC] Countrywide Financial Corporation
Shares Short 16,052,207
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 5.7
Short % of Float 2.66 %
Shares Short - Prior 15,162,712
Short % Increase / Decrease +5.87 %
Wow I cant believe I let this one pass the radar screens... was a Home Builder too!
(CHCI) Comstock Homebuilding Companies Inc.
CHCI released earnings today and tanked BIG TIME!
Previous Close: 5.51
Today's Close: 4.06 down -26.32%!!
From 24 to 4! in 52wks... This could still be played short if there is a clear rebound to short... I would call it a possible bankrupt play! This just goes to show how fast the real estate market is deteriating. The smaller and medium builders are already writing off land to keep alive. When this real estate bubble burst big time and the dust settles not many small to medium builders will be left. This is why I feel PHM and the rest of the home builders will continue there slide down. Im going to research and find smaller cap plays in real estate and home building to short.... only the strongest will survive!
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Comstock Homebuilding Inc. (CHCI )
after Monday's closing bell reported a second-quarter net loss of $7.1 million, or 47 cents a share, mainly due to a $12.9 million non-cash charge resulting from impairments and write-offs. In the same period last year, the Reston, Va.-based home builder posted net earnings of $3.07 million, or 26 cents a share. Before impairments and write-offs, the company posted earnings of 5 cents a share. Quarterly revenue rose 27% to $50.7 million vs. $39.9 million.
Man Nullz do you have to rub it in... :D I still own 100 shares of CHCI that i bought last June at $22, one of the first stocks that i ever bought! Buy and hold right ;) I was up 20% in the first 2 weeks wow! and have been watching it tank ever since!! Luckily i still have not averaged down! Worth the money as a good teacher I guess... It still amazes me, CHCI is profitable and has even acquired another homebuilder in Atlanta in the past 6 months. I believe that insiders still own over half of the shares... I do not think that they will go under, but it sure is a possibility. Perhaps they are just too heavily invested in expensive land??? Profit Margins have been slashed but people still need places to live in the DC area so i expect that these folks will rebound but it could take a couple of years for the PPS to show it..
If you look i started a thread asking about CHCI a few months back "chci gem or junk" guess that my answer is in today! (also last summer there was NO institutional interest, in the $6 range about 15% of the shares were picked up by the tut's... perhaps they are who sold today???)
Learning the ways of the market, the hard way! Cheers joe
PS if tank continues this week and RSI hits under 20 i will purchase some for a bounce play (maybe)
No doubt CHCI might rebound... but future doesnt look good hehe. Did you check out the PHM action today >:D. Down over 5% >:D.
TOA another small cap Home Builder. WCI released earnings today they came in down sharply.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060809/earns_wci_communities.html?.v=1
MHO and BHS two other smaller gapped home builders worth researching for a short.
ZMH short just was stopped out... if it continues to rally i will look to short again, sure seems over bought! cheers joe
ZMH chart looks very similar to the AAPL chart. I expect it should pullback soon.
ZMH being one tough overbought stock... Lets see if it gives way some the rest of the week.
AAPL looking good :) plan to cover when it drops to low 60s high 50s.
PHM covered today for over 1% gain
TARR shorted today
TOA shorted today
Note to self got to short more of Terliso's plays lol
Damn I didnt play the CFC short! It got battered badly! Closed down over -8%!
Here is a nice read on how the consumers are tapped out. Talks about the credit etc. and how people are at the breaking point now and and filled with debt. This is why we are seeing the lenders suffer... There is hardly anyone left to lend to that doesnt have debt through the roof.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/08/tapped-out.html
Now how can we profit off of this? I think it is easy if we can sucessfully identify stocks to short that will suffer greatly from a tapped out consumer... Lets see... high end retail? home builders? consumer electronics? Right now its almost certain the homebuilders will get hit hard! The supply is just building up and the demand is shrinking... This is why I believe that shorting the medium to small builders is a good shorting plan because chances are the smaller guys will get screwed over in a bearish housing market, maybe even some of them will go bankrupt. The large homebuilders will continue to decline as well. So housing will have a direct effect but what is next after housing to feel the pain? I think Restaurants will feel alot of pain... when your home value declines and you dont have that free home ATM and the gas prices continue to squeeze the consumer people will have to cut back somewhere... The restaurants is the first place people would naturally cut back... less eating out saving money for the basics like gas, home mortgage, etc.
So who will get screwed over the most in the Restaurants? Im thinking familly restaurants, this is where families will need to save money and eat at home more with the family. Since in a family restaurant you have a typical family of 4 you need to pay for and the meal can add up fast espically at some of the pricer family restaurants. Here are some stocks I think we can make money on shorting;
(CPKI) California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
This stock is sitting right near 52wk low it looks like its ready to break the support and tumble... CPKI nice pizza but PRICEY menu... a upper scale family restaurant that I feel will FEEL the PAIN of a consumer spending less. CPKI still has a PE of 26.11 the industrial average is a PE of 17.76.
(PFCB) PF Chang's China Bistro Inc.
Nice chinese food but HIGH PRICE! This recently had a rebound from what looks to be a short squeeze bounce. I think this will blast through 30 soon and make new 52 wk lows. PE of 24.41
(CAKE) Cheese Cake Factory Inc.
Im sure most are familar with this one nice tasting cheese cake but the bill sure adds up fast! With a family of 4 the bill shoots through the roof. Consumers will definately skip the cake when there wallets are hurting. PE of 20.05
I think all three of these family restaurants which all have PEs over 20 will suffer greatly and have lots more downside to come. I would say this is the situation like the home builders where all of them will head lower. The restaurants earnings and outlook has been very bearish from the major restaurants that have reported or warned about decrease in earning outlooks.
Shorting OATS here at 15.35 or so (see if it gaps down) today it broke down through Terliso's 3 magics!!! Look at WFMI same sector broke the 3 magics 2 months ago, now down 25% from the break through!
My trade will be on paper as i am learning and playing these trading plans. Terliso would you see this as a good entry short on OATS, where as WFMI is more of a short into the hole (melf :)) Or would you consider the bulk of the move to have been made to this point? OATS still has a gap to fill and little support down to 13 or so...
Paper plan: short OATS on open, hopefully above 15 with a target of 13.01 (after 4 big down days it seems like it may be a poor time to enter... possible rally around the 3 magics.. Lets watch.
Cheers Joe
Covered my ZMH for a 3% loss :(. Shorted more AAPL >:D
I found a potential short play, (CA)
CA $ 21.77
CA Inc. 0.11
Shares Short 18,939,086
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 6.4
Short % of Float 4.25 %
Shares Short - Prior 18,832,103
Short % Increase / Decrease 0.57 %
I shorted this one in the past and covered in the 19s. Now CA just released terrible earnings and are cutting over 1700 jobs which is a about 11% of there work force. Here is the bad news.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB145BAB0%2D8ED9%2D4D6A%2D90B0%2D74B72DA15657%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo
I would say CA should restest 52wk low at 18.97 and continue down.
Two more im eying for possible short plays... ESPD and TRFC
Howdie Nulz
I covered my AAPL a couple of days ago to free up assets. My AKAM, PHM, OMNI and CKXE shorts are doing well all approaching 10% gain or there already. I shorted a smaller position in ZMH today
I feel that AAPl will bounce around here in the mid 60's for some time unless the entire market has a slump... I still fell that the big GAP will get at least partially filled but it may take some time and i wanted to try to make those losses back elsewhere.
Are you in on the TNEN.ob ride??
Terliso i Jamin' see AAGH as well!
I was surprised that you covered PHM when you did.... I appreciated you confidence in that short when we were in the Hole over $31 and Melf flipped it, boy i bet Melf wishes that he had held! The RSI is holding at 40, but with 5 consecutive down days i will be tightening my stop on PHM in the morning if it looks like the Market is up... Hopefully flip it like you are trying to do. think we will still get a rally to 30? thoughts on OMNI and the double top breakdown?
I will look at your picks from today now! Thanks for the posts (I believe that RGEN would be a good pick for a longer term hold, around 3, solid company.
Cheers Joe
I covered PHM to free up funds :P I was up on the position and decided to take a slight profit over 1%. I entered TARR though, well I want to re enter my PHM short... maybe tomorrow we will see. I feel AAPL is going to get hit some more might see 61s tomorrow or lower.
Havent looked at some long plays until the market loses some points.
Nice call on TARR, I am just watching that one. Be careful entering a short on PHM now... after 5 down days i figure that there will be one final sell off in the morning and then they buyers will step in to take advantage of the cheap shares... perhaps that is what you figure... I am hoping to to cover and then let it recover, hopefully to the 29's and short again... but there is something to be said... i believe that elite G or Ramsburg said it... Use it and leave it... If i had left AAPL alone i would still be ahead :) I also see value in playing a stock over and over as you get in tune with the gyrations.. thoughts on the different strategies.
Cheers joe
PS Do not miss the nice long opportunities out there... as Terliso says "ride em both"
Im not going to enter PHM unless it goes to the high 28s to 29s. However I would loved to get positioned in another HB before the New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales data this week we will see... PHM might very well bounce on negative news though lol.
I think its good playing a stock over and over as long as its not to volatile of a mover and it has good trade volume. I use to play ESLR alot traded it like 3 times and made a profit. PHM and the rest of the bigger home builders seem like good swing traders. They like to move with the markets on up days as a group. They arent to volatile average move about .50%-5.00% per day. If one has bad earnings or news the rest of them move with that one. They all got good trade volume as well.
>:( Well the PHM plan did not quite work out, stopped out of my short this AM at 28.4 (6% gain about)
Everything opened up this AM it seemed; also stopped out of CKXE at 9.52, both are down now :-\
Still holding AKAM and a few ZMH short and looking for new shorts... time to research.
AAPL could be getting ripe to short again, but having been burned i will wait for it , not much upside resistance here until 67.85... flowing with the market.
Cheers joe
CA gapped up over 7% on bad news lol it will drift lower. I just shorted some today at 23.33 its still around that price range I would check it out ;). CA readjusted its earnings and beat expectations slightly but still earnings came in at a big loss.
Thanx I will watch CA, but after shorting AAPL on the big gap up i am going to wait to enter here... currently in no mans land between several moving averages, volume comming in and RSI and MACD pointing up i am guessing that there will be a better short entry (currently 23.20) Do you see a trend break here?
Check out this CRAZY chart CEO China oil up six days in a row on red candles!!! go figure, and all up from a gap onJune 14!!! (from shortstocks.com)
Cheers Joe
shortstocks shorted SHPGY today. I check CEO that is a wierd chart. CA is looking good the gap is fading off through out the day. I wouldnt doubt we are in the 21s by this friday.
I played CA today for a 1% gain. Just shorted PHM at 28.26 >:D. All this new housing data coming in this week and im beting it will come in bad.
PHM short... be careful,, in this situation the expression may be buy the news... as a bunch of the anticipated poor news is probably built into the depressed prices
I will wait for a larger rally to short this one again...
ZMH sure is due for some pull back...
willing to risk a 7% stop on PHM
Good call joet on PHM! I shorted only half position yesterday lets see if it turns around im ready to pull the trigger on the other half soon.
Shorting tech stocks seems to be easy money at the moment. Some tech stocks to take a look at for potential shorting. I also recommend taking a look at QID for a nasdaq decline play.
Large Cap tech shorts that look attractive.
RIMM (chart looks bearish, cell phone industry is looking bearish with the recent MOT earnings.)
GOOG (If tech goes lower GOOG will move down as well, chart looks bearish.)
CSCO (Chart looks bearish, will drag down with the tech sector)
Medium-Small Cap tech shorts that look attractive.
BRLC (Like this short play chart looks very bearish, just went below the 50dma.)
HAUP (Was a recent hot stock and momo play, but I believe this will show strong weakness against a weak tech sector in the coming weeks and months.)
BRCD (I like this short setup the moving averages are very tight and the MACD looks like its ready to move south in direction. Good cover low 7s?)
CHINA (Good short at this level, I would cover right around the 50dma if it moves that way. I would put a 7% stop loss or so on this.)
Shorted some BRCD today @ 8.56. BRCD is going to trend with the nasdaq. I should have a shot to cover in the mid 7s.
RIMM up over 4% today on really nothing. Good time to consider a position for a short on RIMM.
Nice rally today in the markets, didnt scare me out of a short position. Under water on BRCD by -1% and RIMM by -2%.
With you on ANF shorted some at 79.96 today but will stop it at 81.10 if it sees new highs, current target would be 50sma around 72
cheers joe
Im looking to short ANF either today or friday. RIMM is looking good on the short side, news hit AH of a big lawsuit so lets see how this pans out today. New short to look at CFC, earnings coming out january 30th. Subprime lenders are getting creamed as of late.
Strong bearish move on CFC today broke 50dma on high volume today so far. Shorted CFC today at 40.80
All my shorts are looking good ;D.
CFC: 40.29 -1.64 (-3.91%) Strong high volume move through the 50dma today.
RIMM: 127.04 -0.69 (-0.54%) Not much movement today neutral to bearish.
BRCD: 8.37 -0.31 (-3.57%) Big move down trending with the indices.
Im now 100% short on the market heavily invested in QID and have shorts in RIMM, BRCD, and CFC. Today we may have continued downside in the market (espically the DOW) if CAT comes in below market expectation on earnings and the durable goods and new home sales numbers come in worse then expected.
Covered for slight profit on CFC at 40.53. CFC didnt show enough weakness this morning, also thinking it over CFC has a high chance on a dumb rally on bad earnings.
ANF is looking good right now on the short side. I may jump in soon on an ANF short.
Market showing a strong bearish showing today... the VIX is over the 50dma and is still making new highs 2 big white candles its printing so far. Will only need monday to print a third tall white candle to give us 3 white soliders. QQQQ is under its 50dma with the 5dma, 9dma, and 20dma piercing through the 50dma. I expect next week the bearish trend will continue with more volatility.
Covered BRCD for 2% profit todays action was bullish on BRCD after the morning market blues. May drift around above the 50dma for a while.
Shorting time!
When market pullback, even good stocks will suffer. >:D
--- Trade only on the right of the market --
So this is the turn in the market you were waiting for Terliso? Any good shorts you spotted?
Quote from: nullzero on February 27, 2007, 02:06:08 PM
So this is the turn in the market you were waiting for Terliso? Any good shorts you spotted?
Yes Nullzero, I think so, I won't be scanning the market until Friday...It is good to be in cash right now, and I'll take this time to relax for the whole week. ;)
Have a nice relax Alistair you deserve it.
Good luck
Just got my margin account approved. Dont know if I plan to short soon, but for the moment, just good to know its there if I want to. ::)
Quote from: tokyopua on February 27, 2007, 07:33:48 PM
Just got my margin account approved. Dont know if I plan to short soon, but for the moment, just good to know its there if I want to. ::)
Hi Tokyopua
Nice to have that margin account, opens up some other opportunities, long and short, just be careful not to get to overextended.
I have a few friends who use it heavily to leverage themselves on the long side, I think tomorrow they will be getting some margin calls from their brokers. Works well as long as the trend is going your way. Basically the more marginable stocks you buy the more your available margin keeps going up, ie your account has more value so you can get more and more leveraged. It can become a real house of cards and when it starts to collapse it happens fast.
I don't use margin alot, but nice when you are fully invested and want to buy something right now without selling anything immediately, gives you the chance to pick your optimum exit and you just pay for the loan for a few days. Also some brokers won't let you buy anything with the sell money until after settlement, so again that margin can help. My broker BMO here in Canada is good that way as my account is live online, ie I can buy something one minute then sell it the same day and then use the cash to buy something else the same day, no waiting for settlement day.
As far as shorting, also remember you can always use put options to achieve a similar end, but with options just remember the time decay.
I've been looking at the QID bottoming the last few days and almost bought some, but not today on the gap up so now I will have to see how this plays out for an entry.
I did buy some puts on GMR when they had the gap up on the $15 special dividend, 4 days ago so far OK, 60% gain in 3&1/2 days and the crunch today will probably help. For the first 1 & 1/2 days the gap support held but started to breakdown yesterday and today it has started to fill the gap which I expect will complete shortly.
happy trading / investing
Quasi
Quote from: nullzero on August 09, 2006, 11:52:27 PM
Damn I didnt play the CFC short! It got battered badly! Closed down over -8%!
CFC has been buried alive the last three months...Will it be finished off tomorrow??? >:D