SHORT THREAD!

[nullzero]

WFMI should have some more short potential I think but might be risky though (short term). WFMI also pays a div. and has lower P/E then OATS... WFMI in the midterm looks bearish. OATS has the remote possibility of a take over target if the PPS drops to the right amount, but with a P/E of 69 and a heated competitive environment in this industry it looks like a nice short for OATS. However a recession will hit these more expensive nitch grocery stores harder then the standard bread and butter stores like Kroger's KR. OATS and WFMI will loose customers or volume of buying if a recession hits us hard (value shopper looking to save every dime). Also to note Kroger (KR), Safeway (SWY), and others are actively trying to take market share away from WFMI and OATS in the hot organic and natural food industry. As for shorting in the hole I think on WFMI it can be more risky in the short term but for a mid term short you should come out ahead I believe. WFMI has a lower short % of float which looks more attractive for a short then OATS. WFMI has 6.69 % of float short and OATS has 19.06 % of float short. I would hate to get caught in a short squeeze if one happened for OATS. Bag holders seem to be bailing on WFMI which is a good sign that a bearish mid to long term outlook hold true for WFMI. Also insiders are dumping alot of shares for both WFMI and OATS.

Currently WFMI is sitting at strong support in the 50.00s... I would wait and see if it wants to bounce slightly, if it breaks through the support in the 50.00s from the end of 2004. I would definately short, it may freefall down to the 30s. WFMI kind of looks like the HBs charts and also on a fundamental note, WFMI built many of there new stores next to new residential construction communities through out the states. In southern california I saw this first hand. They seemed to be expanding with the residential boom into new communties where rival stores were not established yet (this may be the core of there expansion plan). Now that construction is getting hammered I think there expansion will slow as well. The inflation and possibly recession will hurt OATS and WFMI .

In summary short OATS for short term drop to low 16.00s or high 15.00s. WFMI for a mid term short to possibly 30s-40s.

[nullzero]

Some new shorts to put on watch list AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters), BBY (Best Buy), and ZMH (Zimmer Holdings).

AEOS technically looks extremely bearish... fundamentally negative outlook I would say decreasing consumer spending is going to hurt apparel. Insiders are picking up the selling... I like to get in this one very soon for a good short cover target possibly 24-29 on shorter term maybe even lower for a mid term. Short % of float is at about 4.00%. I like this one alot for a short play and want to enter very soon.

BBY would watch for an entry may rise slightly into the 45s or possibly upto 47. 45-47 screaming short on BBY I would say. Fundamentally there has been lowered spending in consumer electronics and new computers. BBY will get hit hard if the general market outlook gets even more bearish, the suprise good earnings gave a green light to short after the last rally. BBY has been down ever since that earnings rally. I couldnt imagine future earnings improving in the negative near future. EX. Consumers will say why do I need to pay $800 for a new laptop or computer im tight on money and gas is kicking my ass, I will just keep what I got and wear it out till im in better shape to get a new computer. BBY short % of float is at about 4.10%

ZMH would be a short term play on being overbought. RSI and MACD looked like there about topped off. Buying volume seems to be lowering. Short % of float is at about 1.3%... from the looks of it ZMH just recently squeezed the shorts and the fuel seems to be running out.  I want to short some ZMH very soon.

[nullzero]

May short UARM (Under armor tomorrow) UARM in the right place at the right time for a short. Cramer bashed UARM badly with its high P/E and basically saying slower growth was due soon. Looking at UARM it looks like its heading for a big break down. Today UARM went down -2.86% but also took a hit of -1.79% in AH after the cramer bash. With a P/E at 78.47 there is to much speculation premium for a clothing company. The technicals look really bearish. UARM has STRONG RESISTANCE at 43.50... currently UARM looks like its ready to break down below support, in this market environment it may give the pressure to break the strong support.

[Terliso]

(BKC Short) ---> You gotta check out BKC, a stock like this hitting new all-time low will tend to go down further

[nullzero]

BKC looks really good as well I never really like burger king. I can see there loosing market share against mc donalds, jack in the box, and wendys which are just tearing up burger king in my opinion with menu, advertising, and locations.

[Terliso]

(AMKR Short) ----> Mark this post Nullzero, 200sma & 200ema has been broken again It might hit $3.50 support again in the medium-term .... IMHO

Current price $5.98
see you there @ support!!

[nullzero]

will add BKC and AMKR to my short stock list 

[nullzero]

shorted some ZMH today at 66... ZMH due for a pullback.

[Melf Elf]

(Melf are there conditions that you do short into the hole?) 

No, Joe.

Intresting enough DECK pulled back to 40.78 today.

nullz,

Yeah, I thought it might hit the 40.53-40.63 support area. Close, but no cigar.

nullz,

DECK is back to the earnings high.  I never got a chance to buy it in the 40.53-40.63 support area, dang it. 

[nullzero]

yeah I saw that, I was sitting on the side lines I didnt want to enter a new long position.

[nullzero]

Melf what you think of AEOS and ZMH?

[Melf Elf]

Melf what you think of AEOS and ZMH?

nullz,

I don't like to comment unless I've done a fairly thorough analysis, after can offer the "whys and wherefores."  Unfortunately, time doesn't permit, but I'll try to participate on an "as can" basis.  Especially if it's a stock that I've already looked it.

I apologize to everyone fo the questions and messages to which I haven't responded.  "So many stocks...so little time."

That said...

"Off the cuff" comment: ZMH has rallied so parabolically, it looks ripe for a short, as you said.  It's now at a lot of resistance, but like APPL, it's been murderous on the shorts to this point, and stil is showing strength today.

Shorting here is a reasonable trade, though, with a stop either above today's high, which was within a penny of the last high, or a stop above one of the prior highs.  That's not much risk. 

It would nice if ZMH would gap down tomorrow below today's low, and leave a Bearish Abandoned Baby on the chart. 

A Bearish Abandoned Baby is like a Bearish Island Reversal, only it's a single candle that is "isolated" from the candles that lead into it, and from the candles that follow it.

Good luck.

[nullzero]

Thanks Melf for the response... dont want to distract you to much, good luck with the trading. Market acting very wierd the last few weeks...

[nullzero]

Interesting chart on DECK... zoomed up again and hit the resistance now trading slightly below resistance.

PHM is not going much of anywhere today more or less a neutral day for PHM. I suspect new home starts and other economic data coming out soon can have a negative effect on PHM... who knows though if the numbers suprise it can give a sudden prop in the short term. For PHM the following dates should have an effect on the PPS significantly;

8/8 (FED meeting)
8/16 (Building permits, housing starts, home completions)
8/23 (Existing home sales)
8/22 (TOL- Toll Brothers Q3 earnings release)
8/24 (New home sales)

When these important dates and events come up HBs have the risk of tanking more if the data comes in more negative then once expected. I plan on holding PHM through most if not all these events, unless the PPS significantly drops and its a good time to cover on a technical reason. Fundamentally all these events will more then likely further enhance a short position.

[Melf Elf]

nullz,

I shorted your ZMH at 65.54 near the close.  If we get a gap down below yesterday's low of 65.30 and it doesn't get filled, we've got the Bearish Abandoned Baby.