Good morning :)
Well, the market is not opened yet, but since there's a lot to do today, there's no problem in opening the message board earlier.
Someone brought up the problem of ignoring potential mid and large cap investment opportunities by being focused just on below $500 M market cap companies, so I've reignited a program to study this type of stocks on the Premium area (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php) of the www.3stocksonfire.org.
On this message board (which is free) we'll maintain the focus on small caps, because the objective of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) (turning $15,000 into $150,000) is more achievable (although still very, very hard) using this type of stocks, which show more short term potential.
So far I've studied 239 small caps, as you can see on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0). But more small cap stocks were studied on the Premium area that should be included on this list.
So I'll copy/past those analysis to this board today and update them with necessary changes, so I can add those stocks to the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0). It is also my intention to number the list and establish a simple rating using colors, as nica33 suggested the other day, that is, green for bullish, black for neutral and red for bearish. That way it will be easier to keep track of successes and mistakes, it will be easier to learn ;)
You can talk about stocks on fire and suggest new ones to be analyzed, but I'll be short on time to cover them today (also because my Reuters Data Link service isn't working - I'll have to wait for Ramsburg to fix this - and this way I need to update several days of quotes by hand to use Metastock).
Feel free to talk about anything you please today.
By the way, I'll maintain CPNE.OB, ETLT.OB and PFSW in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php).
Have a nice day :)
David, I am curiuos about JSDA. I realize it's valuation is high for current earnings, however, it has gone from 2% to 25% market penetration in a contract with a national distributor (FIZ) and when JSDA announces earnings on March 8th, they will also announce new retail stores that are selling their products. On yahoo message boards, they have been spotted in Costco, Wal-mart, Target, Krogers, Publix, Smith's, Albertson's and a few other grocery stores that I can't recall. Before Dec. 31 they had an exclusive contract with Target and now have new contract with bev. distributor. They sell soda (multiple flavors in regular, diet and the new pure cane sugar, and also have organic drinks, teas and energy drinks) Cramer tauted them as the next HANS back in Dec. I know Setravis has held JSDA for a while. What is your opinion of JSDA? Is there really a 10 fold potential with the PPS/market cap. in the next 2 years? Thanks in advance. Elliemae :)
I made the following analysis on FORG on January 3, 2007:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1136344636897386159&hl=en
I was bearish on FORG and the stock is down 12.5% since my initial analysis. I can't upload the updated chart because Reuters Data Link isn't working on my Metastock, but it is easy to find at www.stockcharts.com, for example.
What about DVAX? They really fell hard after intermediate data for their hayfever drug showed that none of their study subjects had hay fever to begin with. Not negative news, just bad luck with their study sample. It might be a good time to buy in now.
The following MSI analysis was made on January 4, 2007:
«Here's MSI's analysis on Terliso's request:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=7722375774132999249&hl=en
This is an interesting reverse-merger/new IPO situation that I'll need to study more carefully. I'll do that in a new thread, MSI has passed to the second phase of the new buying process.»
After further investigation the stock was actually bought to the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) at $1.93 (it closed at $2.42 on Friday).
My latest update on it said the following (I update the initial analysis of every holding of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) every trading day on the premium area of the website):
«The market absolutely doesn't care about Movie Star, all eyes and ears are on information about Frederick's of Hollywood. The problem is the latest press release only said the following about FOH:
«Further, we are excited about the recently announced plan to merge with Frederick's of Hollywood. The combined company will have sales approaching $200,000,000, better efficiencies and a powerful brand portfolio."»
The market currently values FOH at:
23.7 million newly issued shares*$2.42 = $57.35 M + 60% of the $20 M rights offering = $57.35 M + $12 M = $69.35 M.
Well, that is less than the price paid to take the company private in 1997, which was $70 M, as you can read here: http://www.bankruptcydata.com/fredericks.htm
I know the company filed for bankruptcy in 2000, but it reemerged from Chapter 11 in 2002 and I think www.fredericks.com has made the company more profitable since 1999 (www.fredericks.com had revenues of $3 M in 1998, $10 M in 1999 and $20 M in 2000. Perhaps $70 M in 2007? That is about half of the company's revenues - the difference being that selling online means less costs than selling through physical stores, so I expect the company to be more profitable now than what it was in 1997).
I believe www.fredericks.com has a bright future, even more so when it starts shipping internationally, or else opens operations in Europe and Asia.
All in all I maintain that MSI shares are a great opportunity at the current market price and I'll keep holding it.»
Hi David
Good morning. Do you think it's still good to buy cpne.ob before the earnings? Thanks in advance
Quote from: tocitygirl on February 20, 2007, 09:25:01 AM
Hi David
Good morning. Do you think it's still good to buy cpne.ob before the earnings? Thanks in advance
I think so. Michael made a great long term revenue model for CPNE.OB that justifies a much higher share price. I'm expecting CPNE.OB to rise above $5 after the 4th quarter earnings release, but that's always hard to know. Let's just say I remain a short and long term bull on CPNE.OB.
Good luck :)
STEC went down so much that went from being a mid cap to a small cap. On my initial analysis which was dated January 5, 2007, I thought the stock was somewhat overvalued and expected a correction, but not a 33.5% fall out in just one month and a half:
STEC analysis:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5532008685805142754&hl=en
Earnings will be out today and probably the company will disappoint investors (since the market has been giving that tip), but maybe the stock will bounce after touching the 200 days SMA support (blue on chart). Long term prospects seem nice. I'll take a look at STEC's results after the bell and will update this analysis, I think there's something to be learned here (and maybe a trading opportunity).
Hello David,
I hope that you are having a terrific day. Would you please let me know what you think of these profitable Hot Stocks:
DSEN.OB
CXTI.OB
EGLY.OB
I think that you might find DSEN.OB ;D to be worthy of your close attention, since margins are improving, profitability is excellent, and the stock is catching fire!
Thanks for all of your excellent work......
Bourbon
David, can you look into ACY when you get a chance.
Good Morning
NTTL is on fire still holding @ .42 ;D
Quote from: elliemae on February 20, 2007, 09:02:50 AM
David, I am curiuos about JSDA. I realize it's valuation is high for current earnings, however, it has gone from 2% to 25% market penetration in a contract with a national distributor (FIZ) and when JSDA announces earnings on March 8th, they will also announce new retail stores that are selling their products. On yahoo message boards, they have been spotted in Costco, Wal-mart, Target, Krogers, Publix, Smith's, Albertson's and a few other grocery stores that I can't recall. Before Dec. 31 they had an exclusive contract with Target and now have new contract with bev. distributor. They sell soda (multiple flavors in regular, diet and the new pure cane sugar, and also have organic drinks, teas and energy drinks) Cramer tauted them as the next HANS back in Dec. I know Setravis has held JSDA for a while. What is your opinion of JSDA? Is there really a 10 fold potential with the PPS/market cap. in the next 2 years? Thanks in advance. Elliemae :)
Technically the stock looks bullish, after a 10% or so correction from the recent highs above $15 (unfortunately I'm unable to provide a chart).
Fundamentally:
-
Market cap is $344 M. Develops, produces, markets & distributes beverages including five brands: Jones Soda Co., a premium soda; Jones Organics, a ready-to-drink organic tea; Jones Energy, energy drink; WhoopAss, energy drink; & Jones Naturals, a non-carbonated juice & tea.
- I see dilution, especially in 2006. Currently the share count is 25.42 million, and it was just 21.6 million in 2005. You can check the historical share count on this link (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=jsda&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) nica33 provided (awesome link).
- Revenue trend is positive, but not all that much growth until 2006. But, you already know that, but expect a huge jump in 2007, right? Still, I see $38.9 M revenues expected for 2006 and $52 M for 2007, and that seems too low for a $344 M market cap in the beverages sector.
- EPS expected for 07 is $0.14. With the stock trading at, let me see, $13.56, the forward earnings multiple is 97 :o
My take is, probably those guys at Yahoo and Cramer are right, JSDA's fundamentals are poised to improve, but that seems completely priced in. I believe the stock is way overvalued at this point, therefore my rating is negative.
How about ZERO.OB
PCCC looks good :).
Quote from: wontfindaname on February 20, 2007, 09:17:44 AM
What about DVAX? They really fell hard after intermediate data for their hayfever drug showed that none of their study subjects had hay fever to begin with. Not negative news, just bad luck with their study sample. It might be a good time to buy in now.
I'm sorry wontfindaname (cool nick :D), but I have a problem with biotech stocks, as you can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.msg84845#msg84845) Q&A 15, especially when they're losing ($15 M) or so a quarter.
I explained this personal position previously, besides being hard to value, I believe 90% of biotechnology stocks will be lousy long term investments, as they need to continually dilute shareholder's value to finance operations.
I believe that in the future, when all the hype from the sector goes away, the government will need to sponsor this kind of investments (because they're socially useful, but the risk is too high for the average potential return in my view). But this can be 10 years or more from now.
Anyway, I know nothing about DVAX specifically, good luck :)
if your into penny stocks have a look at sbjx
Just two more things about understanding fundamental analysis:
- One need to understand and incorporate the fact that shares are a part of a company, a business. Then invest from a business perspective;
- As in technical analysis, it's all about the trend. The fundamentalist doesn't know the future, he just extrapolates current trends, in terms of revenues and earnings to come up with a future value.
That's what I've done with CPNE.OB, and that's why I have a 57% profit on that stock at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) and will keep holding, because I see a much superior value by projecting the recent fundamental trends into the future (well, in fact Michael has been doing most of the job. It works ;)).
Thanks David.
Speaking of CPNE! Its exploding to the upside :o.
A couple of your old picks. Both with rumors lately.
INSM NYT article and a stipulation agreement between TRCA and INSM in their trial leading to speculation of settlement. Lazard reitierates $3 target 2-19-07
XMSR- I took a small position in this at 15.50 today based on the volume and proposed merger. It dipped below 15 but now has come back. I guess 50 million shares traded of a $15 stock just got my attention on a dip.
David, I just wanted to say that the BIGGEST thing you have taught me is "PATIENCE" & "PATIENCE", you are very patient even in the short-term! You have hit 300% in your main portfolio! WOW! This does indeed win the game and keeps you in longer! Great Job! ;D
BBC is a good example to: "when it looks too good to be true, it probably isn't true".
Here's the analysis I made on January 6, 2007:
«The video analysis:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1959434691382203537&hl=en
General Overview:
- Technical analysis is bearish
- Numbers, especially the net profit margin, looks too good to be true
- AMEX letter and shareholder's lawsuits against the company for providing false information
- Revenue numbers are probably real, the stock can be more safe at a below average revenue multiple, say around $3
Final comment:
The stock will probably be up a lot on Monday (closed 14% higher in after hours) due to the following press releases Friday after the closing bell:
• Bodisen Biotech Receives Preliminary Determination From Amex (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070105/111416.html)
PrimeNewswire (Fri 4:46pm)
• Bodisen Biotech Provides Clarifying Information on Past Consulting Relationship With New York Global Group (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070105/111423.html)
PrimeNewswire (Fri 9:03pm)
I fear small Chinese companies with very high net profit margin numbers. Perhaps I'm wrong on this one, but been burned before. Since the chart says "sell" I don't trust the financials. Good luck to anyone holding, though.»
The stock is down 20% since my initial analysis.
Quote from: oicpecnoc on February 20, 2007, 10:52:28 AM
A couple of your old picks. Both with rumors lately.
INSM NYT article and a stipulation agreement between TRCA and INSM in their trial leading to speculation of settlement. Lazard reitierates $3 target 2-19-07
XMSR- I took a small position in this at 15.50 today based on the volume and proposed merger. It dipped below 15 but now has come back. I guess 50 million shares traded of a $15 stock just got my attention on a dip.
I dislike INSM, please check my latest take on the Stocks Covered List, under "N". I think that lawsuit doesn't make much difference to the bearish case on the stock, which to me is: even if they approve and commercialize their main drug, iPlex, a drug to cure children with very small stature, the market potential of the drug is too small, because just 20 or 30 thousand children suffer from the disease in the US.
As for XMSR, if you recall correctly, my trade was short on the stock above $20 (I was right, but lost a bit of money anyway, because my hands were weaker back then and shorting is a loser's game over the long term). The merger with SIRI is a very positive step in the right direction, but the balance sheet is lousy ... and both companies have the horrible habit of diluting shareholder's value every chance they get. I wouldn't buy on this news, but good luck :)
RICK
Fairly priced?
QCC analysis made on the 8th of January, 2007:
«Here's the video analysis for QCC requested by Terliso:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1580140004511543256&hl=en
General Overview:
- Long term technical trend is bullish. Important resistance at $3.03.
- I don't know what this company does:
- The balance sheet is odd;
- The share count is rising a lot;
- Gross margin is 80%, net margin is 70%;
- QCC is a strange stock, I don't know what to think of it.
Outlook: Neutral»
I didn't know what to think of it back then, and I still don't know. The stock is down 6% from my initial analysis.
Quote from: mbaugh on February 20, 2007, 10:55:18 AM
David, I just wanted to say that the BIGGEST thing you have taught me is "PATIENCE" & "PATIENCE", you are very patient even in the short-term! You have hit 300% in your main portfolio! WOW! This does indeed win the game and keeps you in longer! Great Job! ;D
I wasn't even looking, the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) is up 302% since inception in April 2005.
Call me crazy, but I can't feel happy about it. I've taken so much punches and even cried so much during my 11 years trading career, that I simply don't feel happy or sad when winning or losing. I don't care. My happiness depends on other issues in life.
The market has no power over me. This game is between me and me. I choose when to be happy or sad, not the market with its fluctuations. This is the only way a speculator can do this job for years and years and live a happy life.
nice comment David, applause (what about a happy family e.g.?)
what about CRAY ?
tia
Oliver
MLSS.ob Medical supply company with market cap of 32 million. Strong uptrend.
Hi Bourbon :)
DSEN.OB has an extremely low average traded volume, just $17,000 or so traded today, so I couldn't buy the stock even if I wanted (there's always the risk of liquidity dropping so low that the bid/ask spread gets to 10 or 20% - I sure don't like that).
But, strong day on Thursday, I hope you're in before that ;)
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $10.2 M. The Company conducts telephone market research and provides data entry services for third parties.
- Balance sheet is weak with negative working capital (although just barely, a negative working capital is never a good thing). By the way, let's check the share count trend on that magic link (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=dsen&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann): ohh, no data available for DSEN.OB.
- Revenue trend is positive, revenues are growing every year.
- Q3 results were spectacular, with $0.04 EPS and $4.2 M in revenues. If they maintain this profitability, the company will earn $0.16 in a full year, and that would put the earnings multiple at 3.7, which is an outrageously low valuation.
You're right Bourbon, DSEN.OB looks very attractive at this point from a technical and fundamental standpoint, it's a pity volume is so low. Good luck :)
SEC file just out for CPNE.OB showing JLF Asset Management is holding 3,037,500 shares (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1028070/000091957407001460/d748686_13g.txt), or 6.42% of the company (this means a share count of 47,313,084, roughly equal to the Q3 share count number, so there's no dilution at all).
Hi David!! i would like to know your toughts for CSUH.ob. There is not a lot of information about it but I think the product could be interesting. They offer a calorie burning soda.
Thanks for your great work. Everyday I learn a lot from you and from the 3SOF community :)
Last week David briefly explained in 5 steps how to make a fundamental analysis of a company!? Anybody knows where I can find it? thx
Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2007, 11:42:02 AM
SEC file just out for CPNE.OB showing JLF Asset Management is holding 3,037,500 shares (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1028070/000091957407001460/d748686_13g.txt), or 6.42% of the company (this means a share count of 47,313,084, roughly equal to the Q3 share count number, so there's no dilution at all).
Maybe this is part of why the stock is back up today to about the levels it was prior to Valentines day when the supposed "dillution" happened. All those investors who mistakenly thought it was dillution bailed, but now there is definitive news out showing it wasnt dillution. This is where it pays to know the rules and hold through the market reactions. Glad I added to my position during all that noise ;)
Quote from: njshiva on February 20, 2007, 09:55:54 AM
David, can you look into ACY when you get a chance.
What an incredible bull run njshiva, I hope you're holding ACY :)
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is
$28.47 M. The Company is engaged in the business of investing in used regional aircraft equipment leased to foreign and domestic regional air carriers
- The share count (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=acy&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) remained absolutely the same since 1997, needless to say I like that
- Balance sheet looks ok
- Revenue trend is positive. They reported 2006 revenue of $18 M, so the Price to Sales Ratio is 1.55 now.
- They reported $0.62 EPS for the full year 2006, and that puts the trailing earnings multiple at 29.5. But, 4th quarter EPS was $0.35, and if we multiply this by four we get to a full year EPS of $1.4 and that means a forward earnings multiple of 13, which can be considered cheap. The problem is Q4 revenues were lower than Q4 2005.
ACY had the most amazing bull run, from $5.5 to the current $18.5, in just three and a half months. I believe it is fully valued now.
I don't know if this business model has all that much space to grow ... amazing run so far (and today too), congrats njshiva :)
You can see it here Se7en:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8945.msg88689#msg88689
GM David,could you look at WGAT for me? Have you noticed TBUS from last week?That thing just does'nt seem to want to stop.Ha Ha!Plus dddc seeems to be getting stonger. Thanks
PFSW is breaking out above the inverted H&S pattern, let's see if it holds.
Quote from: stockslover on February 20, 2007, 12:29:18 PM
You can see it here Se7en:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8945.msg88689#msg88689
Today I have my wife helping :-* (because today is a national holiday in Portugal (answering TraderStar's question the other day), so everybody is home - I just had to go play a Playstation motocross game with my 4 year old son ;D)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2007, 12:37:38 PM
Quote from: stockslover on February 20, 2007, 12:29:18 PM
You can see it here Se7en:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8945.msg88689#msg88689
Today I have my wife helping :-* (because today is a national holiday in Portugal (answering TraderStar's question the other day), so everybody is home - I just had to go play a Playstation motocross game with my 4 year old son ;D)
How many kids do you have David? I have one, he'll be 3 next sunday
Sounds like you're haveing some fun there David! I have 3 kids,the youngest just turned 16,OMG. Definately take the time to do as much as you can with them,cause they grow up way to quick!!
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 20, 2007, 10:06:43 AM
Good Morning
NTTL is on fire still holding @ .42 ;D
Absolutely kpusan63, great pick :)
Here's my take on it the other day:
«NTTL.OB is enjoying a nice bull run in 2007. The chart is bullish. But volume is still low, just $178 K, I'm surprised you're surprised this wasn't covered yet :)
We covered just a bit more than 200 stocks so far, but there are what, 7,000 small caps out there? Still a long, long way to go to know them all ... but I have time, in fact, all the time in the world.
Brief fundamental study of NTTL.OB:
- Market cap is $16 M. The Company develops telecommunications software as well as a web security and financial software packages. The Company is a telephony company in the exploding VoIP industry.
"Exploding VoIP industry" probably means financials are lousy ... let's see, the balance sheet, yep, negative working capital of ($488 K).
Revenues were declining to almost zero (I bet they changed the business model), but had a big jump in Q3 2006, to $2.6 M.
Ok, despite the weak balance sheet I guess NTTL.OB is involved in several businesses that have huge potential, like the AVOP (http://www.avop.net/) and the www.tougi.com.
The market cap doesn't look too high at about $16 M and the chart is awesome.
I would say NTTL.OB is a nice catch, good luck :)»
There's another stock outthere, which is CVDT.OB, that looks more or less involved in the same business as NTTL.OB, but CVDT.OB is valued at 10 times more or so. It could be interesting to compare the two companies.
NTTL.OB needs substance. Do you know of any "substance" out lately? Thanks :)
Quote from: nica33 on February 20, 2007, 12:47:09 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2007, 12:37:38 PM
Quote from: stockslover on February 20, 2007, 12:29:18 PM
You can see it here Se7en:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8945.msg88689#msg88689
Today I have my wife helping :-* (because today is a national holiday in Portugal (answering TraderStar's question the other day), so everybody is home - I just had to go play a Playstation motocross game with my 4 year old son ;D)
How many kids do you have David? I have one, he'll be 3 next sunday
Great age nica33 :)
I have two, Lucas, who is still three (he'll be 4 next month) and Leonor, which is 6 months old :)
Quote from: 2bun on February 20, 2007, 12:53:48 PM
Sounds like you're haveing some fun there David! I have 3 kids,the youngest just turned 16,OMG. Definately take the time to do as much as you can with them,cause they grow up way to quick!!
Thanks for the advice 2bun. You have a big family, you must be proud.
Quote from: spiritgate on February 20, 2007, 10:12:52 AM
How about ZERO.OB
Hi spiritgate :)
Technically ZERO.OB looks like it is going to zero, since the trend is quite bearish on low volume.
Fundamentally:
-
Market cap is $32 M. A development stage company focus is on research and development of proprietary devices that are designed to reduce harmful emissions, and improve fuel efficiency and engine performance on equipment and vehicles driven by internal combustion engines.
- Balance sheet is horrible, with negative working capital and just $433 K in cash
- Revenues were $0 since inception
- The company has been losing between $2 M and $3 M a quarter.
Spiritgate, I'm sorry, but this stock is just awful, I think it will dilute shareholder's value all the way down. I think you have a good shot at a 90% decline in 2007 here.
Can be wrong, though ...
I have an awsome family David,sometimes i have to pinch myself cause i think I'm dreamin !! Ha HA,but seriously the best advice I ever got about raiseing kids is to treat them like you would your best friends,cause inevitably they will be!
CPNE looking ready to break out of a cup formation on the 3 minute chart, if that happens its gonna be a fun day!!! >:D
Quote from: nullzero on February 20, 2007, 10:16:05 AM
PCCC looks good :).
Indeed, no doubt the trend is bullish, and the trend is your friend.
Fundamentally:
-
Market cap is $469 M. A direct marketer of information technology products and solutions, including brand-name personal computers and related peripherals, software, accessories and networking products through its sales subsidiaries
- No significant dilution over the years
- Balance sheet looks ok, with a 1.9 current ratio
- Revenue trend is quite positive, with $1.635 B in revenues in 2006. This puts the trailing revenue multiple at 0.28, which is low.
- EPS in 2006 was $0.54, but it can be a lot more in 2007 if there's margin expansion. Net profit margin in 06 was just 0.8%. Analysts are expecting 76 cents EPS for fiscal 2007, but the company can trounce this estimate.
I like this fundamental situation, where just a few cost cutting measures can improve profitability by a lot. Why didn't I see it at $6? I still like it ... not buying, but I can see the long term potential.
MNDO...I wonder if this small cap (65 million) based in Israel won't report good earnings tonight. Nice chart
It looks undervalued compared to its competition...however price/sales is a little higher.
Oh well I bought and will wait for the earnings tonight. I've seen many of these small caps with good earnings jump after market then go higher the next day. KRSL...AVZA...ZONS... BSQR...ect. This time I'm going to try to be ahead of the game.
Quote from: flore34620 on February 20, 2007, 10:21:52 AM
if your into penny stocks have a look at sbjx
We're into any stock traded on the NYSE, Nasdaq, AMEX or OTCBB, given that it has a market cap not larger than $500 M.
Jesus, SBJX.OB chart looks like an arrow going to the sky. The stock is up 468% over the past 8 trading days :o
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $22.7 M. An innovative provider of intelligent communications solutions for the Internet and Intranet environments.
- Balance sheet is bad, with negative working capital
- Revenue trend ... well, the company sold just $5,000 in Q3, even 3 Stocks sold more than that, I wish it were worth $22 M too ;D
There must be news driving the recent share price surge, let me check that:
• Subjex Corporation Exceeds $1 Million Dollars in Funds Mirroring Trades; Auditor Verifies 2006 Trade Gains of 70.8% per GIPS Standard (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070212/0214337.html)
Market Wire (Mon, Feb 12)
Wow, this is really an interesting situation. The company claims to have a software that predicts the Dow Jones Industrial Average with an accuracy of nearly 80%, over the very short term.
I don't believe this can be done.
I could pick some Google ads rolling on 3 Stocks claiming the exact same thing (or even better), and of course those websites are not worth $22 M. Not even $1 M. I think the same is true for SBJX.OB, not worth a million dollars, and the stock will go down 90% on the "after hype" period.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2007, 12:59:33 PM
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 20, 2007, 10:06:43 AM
Good Morning
NTTL is on fire still holding @ .42 ;D
Absolutely kpusan63, great pick :)
Here's my take on it the other day:
«NTTL.OB is enjoying a nice bull run in 2007. The chart is bullish. But volume is still low, just $178 K, I'm surprised you're surprised this wasn't covered yet :)
We covered just a bit more than 200 stocks so far, but there are what, 7,000 small caps out there? Still a long, long way to go to know them all ... but I have time, in fact, all the time in the world.
Brief fundamental study of NTTL.OB:
- Market cap is $16 M. The Company develops telecommunications software as well as a web security and financial software packages. The Company is a telephony company in the exploding VoIP industry.
"Exploding VoIP industry" probably means financials are lousy ... let's see, the balance sheet, yep, negative working capital of ($488 K).
Revenues were declining to almost zero (I bet they changed the business model), but had a big jump in Q3 2006, to $2.6 M.
Ok, despite the weak balance sheet I guess NTTL.OB is involved in several businesses that have huge potential, like the AVOP (http://www.avop.net/) and the www.tougi.com.
The market cap doesn't look too high at about $16 M and the chart is awesome.
I would say NTTL.OB is a nice catch, good luck :)»
There's another stock outthere, which is CVDT.OB, that looks more or less involved in the same business as NTTL.OB, but CVDT.OB is valued at 10 times more or so. It could be interesting to compare the two companies.
NTTL.OB needs substance. Do you know of any "substance" out lately? Thanks :)
Hi David,
NTTL.OB this play was based on TA which was based on volume/breakout(.40). I have read and listened to recent PR's and potential growth and revenues are growing. Now, I take the recent PR releases with a grain of salt due to this being an OTC company since I have gotten burned with prior OTC company releasing "false" information. I tend to trade mostly on TA but I am learning from you to also take a "pause" and look at the fundamentals prior to buying. Luckly, this one is turning out well and will watch it with closely for any breakdown in price.
Below are some podcasts from the company. Any opinions would be of great welcome.
http://podcast.streetiq.com/streetiq?GUID=1052138&Page=MediaViewer&Ticker=NTTL
David, you could look at HURC for me. It's not exactly on fire today, but yesterday made a big move on earnings. THNX
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 20, 2007, 11:05:47 AM
RICK
Fairly priced?
Technically RICK is bullish. Let's make some fundamental tests:
- Market cap is $55 M. The Company currently owns and operates nightclubs that offer live adult entertainment, restaurant and bar operations. The Company also owns and operates several adult entertainment Internet websites.
- RICK's management has the bad habit of diluting shareholder's value year after year. First, check that trend here (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=rick&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
You can see the share count grew from 2.1 million in 1997 to 4.9 million currently. Making a fairly simple equation ...
2.1 million*(X^10)=4.9 million <=> X=(4.9/2.1)^0.1<=>X = 8.84%
... I see the share count has been rising 8.84% a year for the past 10 years, and that can erase all share price appreciation. - Revenue trend is somewhat positive, with $24 M in revenues in 2006. This puts the sales multiple at 2.3
- 2006 EPS was $0.38, so the trailing earnings multiple is 27, which looks high
I like the company's sector, but you're right kpusan63, it seems fully valued at current levels.
David,
What are your thoughts on ETLT at this point - it seems to be stuck.
(This is where you tell me to be patient ;)) I know I know.... Wait.
David, could you check VDSI ? It's on fire today after earnings report
Quote from: nica33 on February 20, 2007, 11:46:22 AM
Hi David!! i would like to know your toughts for CSUH.ob. There is not a lot of information about it but I think the product could be interesting. They offer a calorie burning soda.
Thanks for your great work. Everyday I learn a lot from you and from the 3SOF community :)
Thank you too nica33 :)
The company made its IPO quite recently, am I right? Today it is up 8% to a new all time high on heavy volume. Hmm, now I see contradictory information. I guess this company changed its ticker symbol, because the business description I have on my fundamental service is mining company with no operations, not a "calorie burning soda" company ???
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $354 M (this looks like a lot for an OTCBB traded company)
- Balance sheet is very "small", just $345 K in assets
- Revenues were $0 in Q4 2006
Well, it says on their latest balance sheet that previously they were Vector Ventures Corp and Celsius Holdings now.
It also says this: «97,603,746 common shares issued and outstanding as of February 8, 2007».
So, we're talking about a $354 M company with $0 in revenues. This looks like another EVCC.OB nica33, those press releases about the "calorie burning soda" are just a pump & dilute scheme.
My take is CSUH.OB will go down 90% before 2007 closes.
Take a look at SYNX ,AT HOD @ 2.08ish.If it gets some volume ,it's gonna fly.Low floater
CSUH looks like a good short :).
Hi David,
Thank you for your analysis of DSEN.OB. If you get a chance, can you please give us a quick evaluation of CXTI.OB. I think there is a lot of potential there, especially since the analysts are expecting EPS of .26 for 2006 and .55 in 2007. I think the revenue expectations for 2007 are very low.
CPNE.OB is looking very healthy - reminds me very much of the TASR ride below $10..... thank you very much for your insight into this wonderful story!
Have a terrific CPNE.OB Day!
Bourbon ;D
Quote from: Sterlis on February 20, 2007, 02:40:44 PM
David,
What are your thoughts on ETLT at this point - it seems to be stuck.
(This is where you tell me to be patient ;)) I know I know.... Wait.
ETLT.OB had a perfectly natural correction to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. You hold on to that horse, because when it runs, it will easily cross $1. At least fundamentals say it will.
Regarding patience, Livermore had the following to say:
«And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.
And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves because they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.»
Ok ZERO was a bad pick- :-[ last time I listen to friends who don't know much more than I about this stuff- but how about AMNT. It's a growing company in a fast growing market. Amish Naturals. They just got Organic and Kosher approval.
This one can wait till tomorrow but I must find a way to redeem myself after ZERO.
Quote from: 2bun on February 20, 2007, 03:06:47 PM
Take a look at SYNX ,AT HOD @ 2.08ish.If it gets some volume ,it's gonna fly.Low floater
What do you mean low floater 2bun? I would pay attention to the market cap, not the float. The definition of float is:
«The number of shares of a security available for trading by the public. A company can have 20 million shares outstanding and only 7 million float. A stock with low-float means there is a limited supply of shares, which can often make a stock more volatile.»
I think it doesn't matter all that much who holds the shares, insiders, institutions or the public, but how many shares outstanding are outthere. That is what tells me the market cap and the value of the company. The lower the number of shares outstanding the less $1 of the share price is worth, hence the quicker it can move. The float being low can only lead to a large bid/ask spread, and that's not good, not even for day traders (even though they think it is).
Technically the stock is somewhat bullish, but average traded volume is low, just 28,000 shares traded today.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is just $10.5 M.The Company was organized to acquire controlling interests in companies engaged in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale and servicing of fire, life safety, security, energy management, intercom, audio-video communication and other systems.
- The share count (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=synx&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) doesn't show significant dilution over the past 3 years
- Balance sheet looks ok
- Revenues declined 25% in 2006, to $15 M. Price to sales ratio is about 0.7
- The company had a negative EPS of ($0.14) in 2006
Fundamentals are so so, a bit on the negative side. I don't see a catalyst to push the stock much higher or lower from current levels. I'm neutral on SYNX, good luck 2bun :)
Hey David,
I like what is happening at IEAM.OB, and I think there is a lot of upside potential from where it is at current levels? If you have a few minutes, please share any insight into the potential for this company.....
Thank You
Bourbon :D
Thanks for that David.SYNX is in the same sector as TBUS, which i purchased a little over a week ago and is up over 30% from my purchase price.I'm just smellin something going on.
Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on February 20, 2007, 03:12:53 PM
Hi David,
Thank you for your analysis of DSEN.OB. If you get a chance, can you please give us a quick evaluation of CXTI.OB. I think there is a lot of potential there, especially since the analysts are expecting EPS of .26 for 2006 and .55 in 2007. I think the revenue expectations for 2007 are very low.
CPNE.OB is looking very healthy - reminds me very much of the TASR ride below $10..... thank you very much for your insight into this wonderful story!
Have a terrific CPNE.OB Day!
Bourbon ;D
After a 50% Fibonacci retracement, CXTI.OB is coming back up strongly and technically the stock is bullish.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $170 M. The Company is engaging in the provision of information technology network and infrastructure consulting services to government and corporations that are involved with creating electronic governments, also known as e-governments.
- CXTI.OB has been diluting shareholder's value. The share count on the Q3 2006 10-Q form was 29.08 million shares compared to 25.9 million in Q4 2005
- Balance sheet is strong, with $22 M in cash and a current ratio of 3
- Revenue trend is positive. The company had revenues of $19 M in Q3. Hmm, Bourbon is right, the revenue estimate for the 2006 full year is $63 M, but probably the company will beat that, because it just needs $15 M revs in Q4 and already made $19 M in Q3
- Expected EPS for 07 is $0.55, so the forward earnings multiple is 11, which looks attractive
CXTI.OB is an interesting Chinese company active in a sector enjoying positive global trends, so probably it will grow quite a lot over the years. But I worry about dilution and you know, Chinese stocks usually carry a below average valuation due to political concerns and doubts about the rule of law (among others).
It doesn't look all that cheap, but revenue and EPS trends are positive, so I see shares rising over time, provided there's no excessive dilution. I would say I'm a bull on CXTI.OB.
Quote from: spiritgate on February 20, 2007, 03:42:44 PM
Ok ZERO was a bad pick- :-[ last time I listen to friends who don't know much more than I about this stuff- but how about AMNT. It's a growing company in a fast growing market. Amish Naturals. They just got Organic and Kosher approval.
This one can wait till tomorrow but I must find a way to redeem myself after ZERO.
No worries about ZERO spiritgate, we can learn as much from an overvalued stock than from an attractive one.
Please request AMNT again tomorrow, I have to go have dinner now :)
Final results for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) are in, it was up 10% on the day to a new all time high of $27,063, up 80% since inception on the 19th of January, 2007.
Tomorrow is another day, I'll be here ;)