Good morning :)
As you probably know I'm holding ETLT.OB, PFSW and TRMM at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php).
ETLT.OB is performing as expected, and I think it will probably run towards $1 and break that level on the upside, because fundamentals are just too attractive, as you can read on my previous comments to that stock on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0).
PFSW is a slow motion mover, and although I believe the stock has a lot of potential, maybe not the best performer I could think of for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Anyway, I'm not prepared to dump it right away, since it just triggered an inverted head and shoulders technical pattern that should take it as high as $1.45 for the short term.
TRMM's trade is based on the chart, that looks great for a big white candle, but also due to a fundamental evaluation of the assets that tells me each share is worth north of $6. Again, you can find that analysis on the Stocks Covered list, under "T", as TRMM was previously owned and discussed a lot on this message board.
I'm available to cover some stocks on your suggestion. However, I still need to update the Stocks Covered List with the previous two days analysis (can't let that thing pile). I wonder if Ramsburg won't come up with a easier way to do that list and the ratings that could be a great help.
I also informed him of the site being slow at high traffic times, and today he'll be controlling the server looking for what's wrong.
It's nice to be back here one day after another, I feel I'm learning a lot and we're building something of great value here. Thanks for your participation :)
AESK.ob Market cap 20million.
gmst
TBSI and what do you think of the dry bulk shippers in general?
AOI
Avg Vol (3m): 774,948
Market Cap: 805.51M
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Alliance One International, Inc. engages in the purchase, process, store, and sale of leaf tobacco in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. It primarily offers flue-cured, burley, and oriental tobaccos that are used in international branded cigarettes. The company offers its products to the manufacturers of cigarettes and other consumer tobacco products. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Morrisville, North Carolina.
Hi David, could you please take a look at NICH?good earnings .
thanks
"LTS"
Avg Vol (3m): 828,397
Market Cap: 501.41M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.03
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiary, Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., engages in the retail and institutional securities brokerage, investment banking services, and investment activities. Its corporate finance and investment banking services include underwriting of public equity offerings; merger, acquisition, and divestiture advisory services; corporate restructuring services; placement of private debt and equity offerings; rendering fairness opinions financial valuations; and providing general investment banking and corporate finance consulting services. The company also provides a range of wealth management services, including portfolio management and financial planning, access to money managers, and investment funds. Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services provides its services principally for middle market and emerging growth companies, and high net-worth individuals through a coordinated effort among corporate finance, capital markets, investment management, brokerage, and trading professionals. The company was founded in 1876 and is based in New York City.
Good morning David. I would like to know your opinion for JADE. they finish 2006 with 45 stores and by december 2007 their plans are to open 100 more. The last year earnings were 34 cents. How much could be with those new stores?
Thanks
Good morning David from sunny Colorado (at least before another snow hits!)
I am new to your SOF board, and have been studying and learning so much. David, you are such an asset to people like me just starting out. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and helping us to grow.
Some advise requested. Before discovering your site, my first attempts at trading have tanked, and I didn't know enough to get out early. My 3 stocks have lost about 50% (I know, you seasoned traders are shaking your heads). Is it better now to just hold on to them hoping some day to recoup some losses, or just take what little is left? Believe me, I will now watch and learn from the great people on these boards and not make the same mistakes.
Also, I'd like to know your thoughts on UQM.
Nice move for MSI! Volume is kicking in and its starting to break out of its channel.
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 09:47:01 AM
Quote from: kslifka on February 23, 2007, 09:38:51 AM
AESK.ob Market cap 20million.
Wow, I am in, thanks!
Scottrade isn't allowing this to be placed via the web or scottrade elite. >:(
I skipped over aesk after seeing its business was a skiing lodge. I dont think it has much more room to run.
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 09:47:01 AM
Quote from: kslifka on February 23, 2007, 09:38:51 AM
AESK.ob Market cap 20million.
Wow, I am in, thanks!
David, if a 20M market cap sells land for 80M, does that go to the bottom line? I bought thinking/hoping it does...
Quote from: nullzero on February 23, 2007, 09:57:21 AM
I skipped over aesk after seeing its business was a skiing lodge. I dont think it has much more room to run.
I won't feel so bad then. Hate to see not getting in on a stock running up 50% already. Anyone know why Scottrade Elite doesn't allow for Pink Sheet to be traded or would one think it is just this one?
Since anyway MSI is the one thats moving ;D.
lancefur. For scottrade, you need to call your local branch to buy the security, but can then sell it via web.
Quote from: txo066 on February 23, 2007, 10:08:18 AM
lancefur. For scottrade, you need to call your local branch to buy the security, but can then sell it via web.
Too late to buy that one anyway. But good to know for the future, thanks!
American Skiing Company AESK announced today that it had entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Killington and Pico resorts in Vermont to SP Land Company, LLC, a major area landowner, for $83.5 million. The announced sale follows the recent announcement of the sale of Mount Snow and Attitash resorts for $73.5 million and the December announcement of the planned $265 million sale of Steamboat resort.
"Killington has been in partnership with SP Land since 2004 on a number of developable real estate parcels in the Killington area. During the design and planning phase of the Killington Village, it became apparent that the developable real estate and resort operations should be controlled by a single owner. We believe this transaction is a tremendous step forward for the future development of Killington, Pico and the surrounding community," said ASC President and CEO B.J. Fair.
Related newsAmerican Skiing Company Announces Sale of Mount Snow and Attitash Resorts for $73.5 Million
SP Land Company, LLC is a real estate holding company with significant land holdings near Killington resort. SP Land Company, LLC first gained its real estate holdings in the area in conjunction with American Skiing Company's restructuring of its real estate related debt in 2004.
"With the recently announced sales of Steamboat, Mount Snow, Attitash and now Killington and Pico, American Skiing Company is clearly in transition. We will be reviewing our organizational needs and adjusting accordingly. As a result of these transactions, the Company expects to repay all bank debt, junior subordinated debt, and have substantial resources to address the needs of our Sunday River and Sugarloaf resorts in Maine and The Canyons in Utah," added Fair.
Included in the sale of Killington and Pico are the resorts and all resort-owned operations, all of Killington/Pico's resort-owned real estate assets and The Wobbly Barn restaurant. In addition to the cash purchase price of $83.5 million, the buyer will also assume approximately $5 million of debt and other liabilities and certain contractual obligations of ASC.
The proposed sales of the ASC resorts will not have an effect on any current season passes, vouchers or advance purchase ticket products for the remainder of the 2006-2007 winter season. Multi-resort products such as All-For-One and Ski America passes will continue to be valid at all ASC resorts where they previously have been honored through the end of the 2006-2007 winter season. Gift cards, Value Cards and Edge cards will continue to be valid in accordance with the terms of those specific programs.
As a condition of the purchase and sale agreement, stockholder approval is required for the sale of Killington and Pico resorts. The sole holder of the Company's Preferred Stock Series C-1, representing 65.8% of the voting shares entitled to vote on the matter, has voted in favor of the transaction, which constitutes majority stockholder approval. Such approval means the transaction may be approved without a meeting of the Company's stockholders. In addition to stockholder approval, the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust approval and consent of the State of Vermont. The transaction is expected to close on or before April 30, 2007.
All of ASC's New England resorts, including Killington and Pico, have received almost three feet of natural snowfall in the past week; these resorts are enjoying the best skiing and riding conditions of the season.
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 09:59:08 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 09:47:01 AM
Quote from: kslifka on February 23, 2007, 09:38:51 AM
AESK.ob Market cap 20million.
Wow, I am in, thanks!
David, if a 20M market cap sells land for 80M, does that go to the bottom line? I bought thinking/hoping it does...
Sold for a small quick gain, I think that the land may have already been reflected in the balance sheet at $332M, they had sold $235 worth in Dec, and now 80M, is about equal to what is on the balance sheet.
Hi David,
please check BSM. company with great potential and nice chart
tia
Oliver
Damn, I updated the stocks covered list (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0) just to find out the board can't handle such a long post. Ramsburg we'll need to fix this some way.
I'm already falling way behind on today's requests, but, I'll go making some analysis ...
MSI is totally on fire and taking the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) with it, the wait was worth it ;)
Dave, Could you check please CYD.
VRGY, no need for analysis since its 1B market cap, but they had huge earnings, could maybe run further like AVZA?
Quote from: colorado-cece on February 23, 2007, 09:49:42 AM
Good morning David from sunny Colorado (at least before another snow hits!)
I am new to your SOF board, and have been studying and learning so much. David, you are such an asset to people like me just starting out. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and helping us to grow.
Some advise requested. Before discovering your site, my first attempts at trading have tanked, and I didn't know enough to get out early. My 3 stocks have lost about 50% (I know, you seasoned traders are shaking your heads). Is it better now to just hold on to them hoping some day to recoup some losses, or just take what little is left? Believe me, I will now watch and learn from the great people on these boards and not make the same mistakes.
Also, I'd like to know your thoughts on UQM.
Thanks for the kind words colorado-cece :)
Before I give you any advice on those 3 stocks, I need to know which ones are they? Probably the best course of action would be to just let go of those losers, it would be a valuable lesson. But, one never knows ... let me learn from your mistake on those stocks, what went wrong?
In fact, your request was so polite, that if you give me the ticker symbols of those 3, I'll cover them before any other.
Thanks :)
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 10:20:32 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 09:59:08 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 09:47:01 AM
Quote from: kslifka on February 23, 2007, 09:38:51 AM
AESK.ob Market cap 20million.
Wow, I am in, thanks!
David, if a 20M market cap sells land for 80M, does that go to the bottom line? I bought thinking/hoping it does...
Sold for a small quick gain, I think that the land may have already been reflected in the balance sheet at $332M, they had sold $235 worth in Dec, and now 80M, is about equal to what is on the balance sheet.
The problem is the market cap is not $20 M, there are two series of common shares and a bunch of series of preferred shares. One needs to know the conversion rate of those preferred shares to find out the real market cap, which is obviously much larger than $20 or $30 M (after potential conversion. Preferred shares erode earnings attributable to common shares).
To see this stuff quickly (the existence of preferred shares) just open the latest 10-Q file from the SEC, for example at www.sec.gov (my news service can do this for me faster).
MYNG is on fire, currently sitting at resistance, but could be interesting if it breaks that.
I am also watching WITM run away on me everyday :'(
Quote from: kpunarc on February 23, 2007, 09:40:45 AM
gmst
GMST is a $1.8 B market cap company, and the limit on this board is $500 M market cap, as you can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). You're a Premium Member, please request that analysis at the proper thread on the Main Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=1.0), that I'll write a brief analysis on it.
Thanks :)
David! What do you think about MCGL as a long investment /price now 0.58c/?
Jeff Gendall bot few days ago 62mln shares MCGL.ob /he bot 17mln shares of XIDE before run/.
Gendell¡¯s specialty is buying very large positions in companies that benefit from that theme, and then working with or pressuring management to improve shareholder returns.
Quote from: nullzero on February 23, 2007, 09:42:32 AM
TBSI and what do you think of the dry bulk shippers in general?
TBSI chart shows a bullish trend, but also very low average volume. Only about 9,000 shares traded so far today.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $295 M. An ocean transportation services company that offers worldwide shipping solutions through liner, parcel, bulk and vessel chartering services.
- No dilution over the years, as you can see here (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=tbsi&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
- Balance sheet looks weak, though, because working capital is just a bit negative
- Revenue trend is positive
- There are preferred shares taking money away from net income to provide dividends to preferred shareholders. Let me check that issue on the 10-Q ... after all it's not preferred shares, but two different series of common shares, A and B, and one of them receives dividends. Not so bad.
- Anyway, those dividends eat EPS at the fourth quarter of every year
My final take is I like the sector but I think probably there are better plays outthere in the sector, this company isn't working for the benefit of the shares you can buy in the open market.
CNLG on fire on orders of 19 systems. If only I could figure out how much those systems cost...
Quote from: kpunarc on February 23, 2007, 09:44:22 AM
AOI
Avg Vol (3m): 774,948
Market Cap: 805.51M
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Alliance One International, Inc. engages in the purchase, process, store, and sale of leaf tobacco in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. It primarily offers flue-cured, burley, and oriental tobaccos that are used in international branded cigarettes. The company offers its products to the manufacturers of cigarettes and other consumer tobacco products. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Morrisville, North Carolina.
This board's limit in market cap terms is $500 M.
Hi David,
Hope you are fine. Long time without to talk with you (previously we talked in our native language). I feel stupid in write to you in English!!! First of all, congratulations to you and to PM for all the good work. Keep on that!
What do you think about MFI? The Average Daily Volume is lower than the 50.000 (around 35.000) but the chart and fundamentals are good.
Hi David,
Could you check MFI today? It seems it is preparing a new strong movement. Thanks.
MSI making new highs still! 30% day it is looking like.
Quote from: magu on February 23, 2007, 09:45:56 AM
Hi David, could you please take a look at NICH?good earnings .
thanks
Technically NICH has no trend, as it is moving sideways and between the 50 and 200 days SMAs.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $32 M. The Company engages in the wholesale importation and distribution of clothing and housewares manufactured to its specifications and distributed in the United States under Company brand labels and retailer-owned private labels.
- The company has been diluting shareholder's value lately :( On November 30, 2006, the number of shares outstanding was 5,253,507, on August 2006 it was 4.7 M and 3.5 million a year earlier
- Balance sheet is weak, current ratio is just 1.18 and zero cash balance
- Revenue trend is positive and the August - November quarter has very strong numbers in terms of revenues and profits. Revenue for the quarter alone was $35 M and EPS was $0.26, hence the big jump the stock had on January 23rd.
I see that receivables grew a lot over this latest quarter ... this is an interesting situation, but since I see dilution and a weak balance sheet, I guess the company will take any rally as an opportunity to issue and sell some more shares. Longer term in can be interesting, because if those sales and profits are for real and continue, they will improve the balance sheet, and therefore probably stop those dilutive practices.
For now I'm neutral on NICH, good luck :)
Quote"LTS"
Avg Vol (3m): 828,397
Market Cap: 501.41M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.03
I guess LTS is down a lot today, so no longer a $500 M plus market cap.
I already covered this stock as one can see on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0).
I could never understand the reason why it was up so much. In fact, I lost quite a bull run on this stock. Let the take a fresh new look at it.
Technically the trend is bullish, but the stock has been pulling back strongly over the last couple of days. Is this a buying opportunity or else the high of a parabolic rise was made and the stock just turned bearish?
Let's see what a brief fundamental analysis has to say:
- Market cap is $455 M. It is engaged in retail and institutional securities brokerage, investment banking services and investment activities.
- Ok, this an heavy "diluter", check the share count rise over the years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=lts&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
- Balance sheet is weird, but book value is just $23.71 M
- Revenues are declining by a lot over the years
- The company doesn't have many operations, hence not losing as much money as it used to do
Now I see what propelled such a huge rally. These guys really know the market and how it works. There were several insider buying SEC files published over the last couple of months, and everybody followed that lead. But, insiders can be buying shares with the company's money (which they get as a bonus or other), and at the same time the company dilutes shareholder's value. I have no doubt that is happening as I write.
This is a classic pump & dilute operation (EVCC style). This stock will probably be a penny stock in 6 months time. I will never touch it.
It goes to show that stocks can rise a lot due to the most various reasons, not all of them fundamentally sound, but those that have a strong fundamental background usually go up to new highs after a correction.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 23, 2007, 10:41:12 AM
Before I give you any advice on those 3 stocks, I need to know which ones are they? Probably the best course of action would be to just let go of those losers, it would be a valuable lesson. But, one never knows ... let me learn from your mistake on those stocks, what went wrong?
And if by any chance these stocks are good, just experiencing bad times, then the rest of us might want to get in while they are on sale ;D ;D
Damn, I just saw that TRMM failed to breakout. Sold for a small loss at $3.19.
This is the second time I lose a bit of money on TRMM, I say forget it, will erase it from my watch list, good luck to anyone that will continue holding.
Fundamental value seems superior, but I don't know, perhaps the company's assets value will be eroded by operating losses.
Ever since the stock started coming off from the opening level that this fall was inevitable, because the stock opened at a crucial technical point, as you can see on the chart below. My hands have been weak and would remain weak on TRMM.
I need to find a better stock, one that I trust completely. Thanks for your suggestions :)
David,
Wondering If you were able to take a closer look at ACY last night.
I bought some yesterday(along with VII) and was looking for some deeper fundamental analysis.
Thanks.
I just picked up some NEOL at 2.05. No need for analysis, just a heads up, its another failed biotech like COR, but running suddenly on no news...
USEG. UP 11 % WITH BIG VOL.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 23, 2007, 12:30:22 PM
Damn, I just saw that TRMM failed to breakout. Sold for a small loss at $3.19.
This is the second time I lose a bit of money on TRMM, I say forget it, will erase it from my watch list, good luck to anyone that will continue holding.
Fundamental value seems superior, but I don't know, perhaps the company's assets value will be eroded by operating losses.
Ever since the stock started coming off from the opening level that this fall was inevitable, because the stock opened at a crucial technical point, as you can see on the chart below. My hands have been weak and would remain weak on TRMM.
I need to find a better stock, one that I trust completely. Thanks for your suggestions :)
What do you mean failed to break out? What resistance was this breakout supposed to overcome? You held the stock for one day. It looks like there is going to be a golden cross coming soon. Im sad to see TRMM go :'(
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 09:47:40 AM
Good morning David. I would like to know your opinion for JADE. they finish 2006 with 45 stores and by december 2007 their plans are to open 100 more. The last year earnings were 34 cents. How much could be with those new stores?
Thanks
JADE, here's a magic stock! I should have taken your advice to buy it on that dip ... it was at about $6.5 back then :)
Well, a simple math calculus would say that if with 45 stores they earned 34 cents per share, with 100 they would earn (100/45)*$0.34 = $0.76 ;D
We wish stocks were that simple ... but I tell you, maybe that is what's really going on with JADE. If $0.76 were a fair 2007 EPS estimate, the stock would then be trading at 15 times forward earnings, which is about the market average.
But of course, there's more to it, let me make a new brief fundamental analysis on JADE, to see if I see something more to it.
- Market cap is $214 M. A vertically integrated company that designs, brands, markets and distributes a complete range of fine jewelry. Specializes in semi-precious jewelry.
- They like to dilute. The share count on September the 30th was 18.94 million, but just 15.5 million in 05, 12.3 million in 04 and so on. (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=jade&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
- Balance sheet is ok.
- Revenues are growing nicely since 02. They're expected at $123 M in 06. Price to sales ratio is 1.74
- Due to dilution, despite having net income growth in 2005 compared to 2004, EPS was lower. The company gave 2006 EPS guidance of $0.34, with $0.16 coming from the 4th quarter alone. From 05, net income rose 76%, but EPS growth was somewhat lower, at 62%, due to 22% dilution
I have doubts that the current rally will continue to much higher levels. I'm afraid the company will use the rally to increase the share count a good 20 or 30% more, because that has been their practice.
If I held it I would take profits. I think the move has run its course. Can be wrong though. Good luck and congrats on this spectacular trade nica33 :)
Quote from: prodigykid6 on February 23, 2007, 01:06:34 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 23, 2007, 12:30:22 PM
Damn, I just saw that TRMM failed to breakout. Sold for a small loss at $3.19.
This is the second time I lose a bit of money on TRMM, I say forget it, will erase it from my watch list, good luck to anyone that will continue holding.
Fundamental value seems superior, but I don't know, perhaps the company's assets value will be eroded by operating losses.
Ever since the stock started coming off from the opening level that this fall was inevitable, because the stock opened at a crucial technical point, as you can see on the chart below. My hands have been weak and would remain weak on TRMM.
I need to find a better stock, one that I trust completely. Thanks for your suggestions :)
What do you mean failed to break out? What resistance was this breakout supposed to overcome? You held the stock for one day. It looks like there is going to be a golden cross coming soon. Im sad to see TRMM go :'(
There was a symetrical triangle breakout in play. On my chart it hasnt totally failed, but has dropped right down to the start point of the breakout. But the chart today does look pretty bearish, before David sold I was scouring the net looking for some bad news the decline was so steep.
Hi David,check out EDAC.ob.Same sector as KRSL,just broke 52 week high.I believe earnings are in a couple weeks. 4.68 now. Thanks
QuoteWhat do you mean failed to break out? What resistance was this breakout supposed to overcome? You held the stock for one day. It looks like there is going to be a golden cross coming soon. Im sad to see TRMM go :'(
The $3.32 level on close, as you can see on the chart below. Tokyopua explained it perfectly, technically it was a bullish triangle breakout play, but it failed.
Yes, I held it for just one day, it didn't felt right to hold that stock. When at a loss I usually get away quickly (at least on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php)) to limit losses. As for profits, I want to let them run.
Anyway, TRMM can respect the ascending trendline and breakout later. Good luck.
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 12:48:18 PM
I just picked up some NEOL at 2.05. No need for analysis, just a heads up, its another failed biotech like COR, but running suddenly on no news...
NEOL just hit 2.24, something is up, maybe a short squeeze >:D :-* >:D
ZONS on fire ;)
David,I have some question.
Do you look on Insiders ot Tutes transaction when you are buying stock?
Thank you.
Quote from: cramercramer on February 23, 2007, 01:30:28 PM
David,I have some question.
Do you look on Insiders ot Tutes transaction when you are buying stock?
Thank you.
"Insiders ot Tutes"? Is that English? Sorry, never heard of it ... What is "Insiders ot Tutes"?
Thanks :)
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 01:27:02 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 12:48:18 PM
I just picked up some NEOL at 2.05. No need for analysis, just a heads up, its another failed biotech like COR, but running suddenly on no news...
NEOL just hit 2.24, something is up, maybe a short squeeze >:D :-* >:D
No more resistance for quite a ways here...
Since you sold TRMM would MSI qualify as a 3stocksonfire? :)
Quote from: Guloso on February 23, 2007, 11:43:33 AM
Hi David,
Hope you are fine. Long time without to talk with you (previously we talked in our native language). I feel stupid in write to you in English!!! First of all, congratulations to you and to PM for all the good work. Keep on that!
What do you think about MFI? The Average Daily Volume is lower than the 50.000 (around 35.000) but the chart and fundamentals are good.
Hi David,
Could you check MFI today? It seems it is preparing a new strong movement. Thanks.
Hi Guloso, do I know you? Where did we used to talk? www.bolsainvest.pt? Or www.clubeinvest.com? What was your nickname, maybe I remember you.
As for MFI, the stock has very low average volume, just 30,000 shares or so traded today. Would you like me to do a brief long term fundamental analysis on it?
Thanks :)
Sorry- Insiders or Institutionals /we call Tutes/
NTTL start moving
Quote from: nullzero on February 23, 2007, 01:39:54 PM
Since you sold TRMM would MSI qualify as a 3stocksonfire? :)
I'm thinking about it. You know I own MSI at $1.93 and already have a 70% profit on it, but the stock is just exploding today, with extremely high volume. It is a stock I know very well and I see it at $6 or more before 2007 closes.
But I feel I shouldn't mix the "Fire" portfolio and the "Main". That can lead to confusion. But it is definitely a stock on fire.
Quote from: cramercramer on February 23, 2007, 01:45:50 PM
Sorry- Insiders or Institutionals /we call Tutes/
NTTL start moving
Yes, I look at that, but I don't consider it as important as most people. To me it doesn't matter all that much who owns the shares, but their value.
The thing I pay a lot of attention are the share count variations. Because, after all, a company's value is the market cap, and market cap = # shares outstanding*share price.
Everybody pays a lot of attention to the share price, but almost nobody cares about changes in the number of shares outstanding, and they both influence the market cap, that is, the value of the company, that is, the fundamental value of each share.
As I see it, the market's primary reason to exist is for companies to finance themselves, create jobs and a growing economy, not to give small speculators like us money.
We may call ourselves investors ... but no, the company doesn't get any money when we buy shares (unless we're buying newly issued shares from the company). The only thing the company gets, if the share price rises, is an opportunity to finance itself better, or else, it is working for the shareholder's benefit, because insiders or the shareholders collectively and effectively own the company, with power to put management out.
If the company doesn't dilute shareholder's value over the years that means it doesn't need the market to finance operations. It is ready to reward shareholders. Even better if insiders own a big chunk of the company, their fortune will rise as the share price rises. Sometimes "insiders" think like employees, they're not interested in making the share price rise on a sustainable basis, they're only interested in keeping their jobs and if possible, increase their income.
A company can grow a lot in terms of sales and net income, employees get a nice pay for their job, and yet the share price declines because they keep diluting shareholder's value.
It makes you scratch your head about many news and optimistic prospects outthere. They mean nothing if there's dilution.
This post is too long ... let's keep on studying stocks, no, let's look for stocks really on fire (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil) ... or just random talk, it's Friday, I've lost patience to look at more financial reports.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 23, 2007, 01:11:29 PM
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 09:47:40 AM
Good morning David. I would like to know your opinion for JADE. they finish 2006 with 45 stores and by December 2007 their plans are to open 100 more. The last year earnings were 34 cents. How much could be with those new stores?
Thanks
JADE, here's a magic stock! I should have taken your advice to buy it on that dip ... it was at about $6.5 back then :)
Well, a simple math calculus would say that if with 45 stores they earned 34 cents per share, with 100 they would earn (100/45)*$0.34 = $0.76 ;D
We wish stocks were that simple ... but I tell you, maybe that is what's really going on with JADE. If $0.76 were a fair 2007 EPS estimate, the stock would then be trading at 15 times forward earnings, which is about the market average.
But of course, there's more to it, let me make a new brief fundamental analysis on JADE, to see if I see something more to it.
- Market cap is $214 M. A vertically integrated company that designs, brands, markets and distributes a complete range of fine jewelry. Specializes in semiprecious jewelry.
- They like to dilute. The share count on September the 30th was 18.94 million, but just 15.5 million in 05, 12.3 million in 04 and so on. (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=jade&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
- Balance sheet is ok.
- Revenues are growing nicely since 02. They're expected at $123 M in 06. Price to sales ratio is 1.74
- Due to dilution, despite having net income growth in 2005 compared to 2004, EPS was lower. The company gave 2006 EPS guidance of $0.34, with $0.16 coming from the 4th quarter alone. From 05, net income rose 76%, but EPS growth was somewhat lower, at 62%, due to 22% dilution
I have doubts that the current rally will continue to much higher levels. I'm afraid the company will use the rally to increase the share count a good 20 or 30% more, because that has been their practice.
If I held it I would take profits. I think the move has run its course. Can be wrong though. Good luck and congrats on this spectacular trade nica33 :)
Hi David,
First, as a newbie to this board, let me say that this is the most usefull board I have seen, ever. The high levels of knowledge and professionalism are remarkable. David, I attribute all of that to you- Thank You!
About Jade:
They have two different but related businesses. The wholesale business, primarily located in the US, while growing somewhat, is a 25% margin business. The new Enzo line of retail stores in China, has a growth rate of 45 stores in 18 months and a gross margin of 50% . These stores typically have 3 employees and are rapidly becoming profitable.
They predict another 65 store openings this year.
They predict that revenue from the retail operations (50% gross margin) will overtake the older more mature wholesale business (25% gross margin) this year. Enzo produced 40m in revs this year. Jade is predicting by 2008 [end of 2007 ???] 40m a quarter from Enzo, [400% growth in that portion of their business]
Jade has publically announce that is acctively examining ways to enhance shareholder value including a potential strategic partnership or a potential partial spin-off for ENZO. We would spin-off 30% max of ENZO and maintain the 70% of ENZO at the wholesale level.
David, You may be right about JADE short term, the chart is looking extended, but there may be good things long term.
Thanks again,
Edit:
David, you are right. Its Friday, time to relax a bit. Sorry for the long post!
Tony
Quote
Hi Guloso, do I know you? Where did we used to talk? www.bolsainvest.pt? Or www.clubeinvest.com? What was your nickname, maybe I remember you.
As for MFI, the stock has very low average volume, just 30,000 shares or so traded today. Would you like me to do a brief long term fundamental analysis on it?
Quote
I wrote in both, but I changed several times the username. Don t worry if you don t remembers me. Normally we never forget the Gurus, but the opposite isn t true.
Yes, please. Despite the Daily average is around the 35.000, it seems to me the Fundamentals are good: Results are improving strong in the last years; good balance,
David, I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios. Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more. Just my humble opinion. ;)
Yeah, that's a good story ravenquork. Against it you have dilution and the company doesn't file forms 10 with the SEC, and that usually means a drag on valuation, or, by other words, it means a lower than average earnings multiple.
Allow me to be the devil's advocate on JADE. I want you to persuade me to buy the stock on a further dip, because I want to, I have about 15% cash available on the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
Tell me, if you can:
- What percentage of the company is still owned by its founders?
- On Yahoo I get $0.4 as a 2007 EPS projection. I assume you expect more. What is your 2007 EPS projection, based on the margins and expansion plans you refer to?
Take your time and thanks for your kind words, just doing my job :)
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 02:37:46 PM
David, I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios. Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more. Just my humble opinion. ;)
CPNE is in the main as well. But when you sell out in the 3stocks it kind of contradicts and confuses those holding for the main plan. I think david doesnt want another situation like CPNE... smaller cap stocks that the main holds can be effected by selling in the 3stocksonfire portfolio at least in the short term.
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 02:37:46 PM
David, I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios. Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more. Just my humble opinion. ;)
The thing is I believe fundamental analysis can be used for short term trading too. For better short term trading. For example, a stock shots up due to some news. The chart looks great, but through a fast fundamental analysis you see the news isn't as significant, or not significant at all to the company (or else, very, very significant, in that case, you should buy it).
If I were to just run with the chart, jumping around from one to another, I would probably end up making many, many trades and not making money at all (I've been there, done that). My hands would be weak.
As for MSI, I own a good portion of it at the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), which is a much larger portfolio than the Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). Currently the Main owns 12 stocks and it has room for 15. The Fire only has room for 3 stocks.
People pay to access the Main Portfolio and the daily updates I write everyday. I don't want to mess with that sound, responsible and high quality service by confusing people, selling shares that I believe are attractive long term fundamental holdings just because they're not on fire anymore.
With 11,000 stocks out there, I shouldn't play with the Main's holdings.
I think people were a bit confused when I sold CPNE at the Fire, but held it at the Main. Some of them didn't know what to do, sell or hold?
I don't want that to happen anymore.
This is just an experiment, I'm showing what I would do if I had just $15,000 as starting capital.
Thanks for your post and curiosity :)
ACY getting ready to rumble
Quote from: David Randolph on February 23, 2007, 02:49:57 PM
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 02:37:46 PM
David, I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios. Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more. Just my humble opinion. ;)
The thing is I believe fundamental analysis can be used for short term trading too. For better short term trading. For example, a stock shots up due to some news. The chart looks great, but through a fast fundamental analysis you see the news isn't as significant, or not significant at all to the company (or else, very, very significant, in that case, you should buy it).
If I were to just run with the chart, jumping around from one to another, I would probably end up making many, many trades and not making money at all (I've been there, done that). My hands would be weak.
As for MSI, I own a good portion of it at the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), which is a much larger portfolio than the Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). Currently the Main owns 12 stocks and it has room for 15. The Fire only has room for 3 stocks.
People pay to access the Main Portfolio and the daily updates I write everyday. I don't want to mess with that sound, responsible and high quality service by confusing people, selling shares that I believe are attractive long term fundamental holdings just because they're not on fire anymore.
With 11,000 stocks out there, I shouldn't play with the Main's holdings.
I think people were a bit confused when I sold CPNE at the Fire, but held it at the Main. Some of them didn't know what to do, sell or hold?
I don't want that to happen anymore.
This is just an experiment, I'm showing what I would do if I had just $15,000 as starting capital.
Thanks for your post and curiosity :)
Thanks David for such explanation. Those are the things that add more and more value to the 3SOF website. :)
David, if you have time I would appreciate if you take a look to UCTT. It's on fire today!
QuoteI wrote in both, but I changed several times the username. Don t worry if you don t remembers me. Normally we never forget the Gurus, but the opposite isn t true.
Yes, please. Despite the Daily average is around the 35.000, it seems to me the Fundamentals are good: Results are improving strong in the last years; good balance,
Ok Guloso, let's check out MFI :)
The chart looks awesome, nice catch, for a Portuguese lol, I'm hurting myself.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $78 M. A specialized commercial finance company that leases and rents 'microticket' equipment and provides other financing services. The Company operates primarily through its wholly owned subsidiary, Leasecomm Corporation.
- No significant dilution for the past 4 years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=mfi&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), I like that.
- This is a financial company, weird balance sheet
- Revenues are going down every year, but, this is interesting, the company is getting profitable
- $0.28 EPS in 2006 puts the trailing earnings multiple at 20, which seems a bit high
Why is the stock moving up lately? The following news was the catalyst:
• MicroFinancial Incorporated Announces Fourth Quarter and Year End 2006 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070207/20070207006133.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed, Feb 7)
Yep, looks nice, but trading at 20 times 2006 EPS now, it looks at about fair value. Why do you think it is worth a lot more than this? (just somewhat more is not enough for me to buy it).
Obrigado e aparece mais vezes ;)
MFI popped up on my stock screener filter as well yesterday.
David I was curious why PRS was so cheap fundamentally? I know its market cap is 540mill :P, but it looks like an interesting stock.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 23, 2007, 02:49:57 PM
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 02:37:46 PM
David, I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios. Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more. Just my humble opinion. ;)
The thing is I believe fundamental analysis can be used for short term trading too. For better short term trading. For example, a stock shots up due to some news. The chart looks great, but through a fast fundamental analysis you see the news isn't as significant, or not significant at all to the company (or else, very, very significant, in that case, you should buy it).
If I were to just run with the chart, jumping around from one to another, I would probably end up making many, many trades and not making money at all (I've been there, done that). My hands would be weak.
David, you are really cutting down the risk, and that is an amazing thing. I am reading Stock Market Wizards, and while there were traders in it that made over 3 figure percentage returns, it seemed the author was most impressed by the trader who was making an average of 40% but with almost no risk. And that makes sense, which is better, a few years of 100% plus returns that risk losing it all back in a bad year, or consistent 40% returns with almost no risk?
Great stuff you are teaching us here and in your premium updates, I love it!
Quote from: nica33 on February 23, 2007, 03:15:06 PM
David, if you have time I would appreciate if you take a look to UCTT. It's on fire today!
I was just about to buy it quickly, but then saw those historical share count numbers and didn't like it. I think it might run further, but my hands would be week holding it, due to that factor.
But revenue, EPS numbers and 07 estimates look quite attractive (still, not as attractive as AMKR or IMOS in the semiconductor space - although different companies).
Also, the factor moving UCTT is a JP Morgan recommendation ... I don't like to buy when those big power houses tell me to.
I have a question that might sound silly but it's just my observation..
So, general markets are down today and my portfolio is 99% green. My portfolio has mostly stocks under $1 so it seems when big board stocks suffer my stocks bloom and vice versa. Is that just a coincidence or there's a corelation?
WWAT.ob is breaking out.
Quote from: OneStockMind on February 23, 2007, 03:36:39 PM
I have a question that might sound silly but it's just my observation..
So, general markets are down today and my portfolio is 99% green. My portfolio has mostly stocks under $1 so it seems when big board stocks suffer my stocks bloom and vice versa. Is that just a coincidence or there's a corelation?
Coincidence, you just own the right stocks for today, the majority of stocks is down on the session, big and small.
Really tempted to buy MSI but hate to buy on spikes like this so I'll pass.
ACY...nice move. :o
QuoteDavid, you are really cutting down the risk, and that is an amazing thing. I am reading Stock Market Wizards, and while there were traders in it that made over 3 figure percentage returns, it seemed the author was most impressed by the trader who was making an average of 40% but with almost no risk. And that makes sense, which is better, a few years of 100% plus returns that risk losing it all back in a bad year, or consistent 40% returns with almost no risk?
Great stuff you are teaching us here and in your premium updates, I love it!
I'm a teacher and a student at the same time, since I don't know many things that I need to know about the stock market.
I own that book too, some great stuff there (but not nearly as important as Reminiscences or Mastering FA).
The problem with all those great money managers is that they manage millions. Everybody is happy about a 20 - 30% return when managing millions. But, what about the little guy (in financial terms), what about starting with $15,000 and grow rich with it?
Hard, very hard, that's what this particular message board is all about. I want to prove that it is possible to go from a small account to a meaningful investment account, where 40% a year would be just fantastic.
About those 100% average annual returns. They're impossible to keep for the long term. It never happened in history, or else that man would without a doubt be the richest man in the world (unless he started with say, $100).
Hi David,
Thanks for the questions. I look at this board as a great learning opportunity, even if I might look foolish sometimes :o While researching your questions, I asked myself a few.
I am not answering yours yet but I did find this out:
Stockholders' equity
Common stocks, par value US$0.01 each,
Authorized – 100 million shares,
Issued –
18,942,871 shares as of September 30, 2006; 15,521,203 shares as
of December 31, 2005
JADE uses issued number in it's eps calculations
???
Quote from: kslifka on February 23, 2007, 03:52:21 PM
ACY...nice move. :o
ACY has a lot of potential, because the market cap ($23 M) is very low and there wasn't any dilution over the years (profitable too).
Good luck :)
bought trmm at 3.35, and acy at 14.08 earlier. I guess its one of those days :D
Quote from: txo066 on February 23, 2007, 04:01:19 PM
bought trmm at 3.35, and acy at 14.08 earlier. I guess its one of those days :D
TRMM had a nice close. I hope it breaks out above that ascending triangle pattern. My hands were weak, I lost.
Good luck and congrats on ACY, already a great trade :)
thanks David. Had to dump ofi at 6.20. couldn't stand the pain anymore( in at 6.40). I'll buy again if it breaks out, but I'm worried that the business isn't sexy enough and this might be the beginning of a long slide back to the 3s.
Quote from: txo066 on February 23, 2007, 04:22:22 PM
thanks David. Had to dump ofi at 6.20. couldn't stand the pain anymore( in at 6.40). I'll buy again if it breaks out, but I'm worried that the business isn't sexy enough and this might be the beginning of a long slide back to the 3s.
Ok, but sex has nothing to do with the value of a stock ;D
OFI is a $96 M market cap company with projected annual sales of more than $250 M and I expect 2007 EPS of $0.67. That should put the stock between $10 and $15 for the year. We own it at the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
The Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) caught a cold today, with a chicken sale on TRMM and ETLT.OB and PFSW down a bit on the day.
Have a great weekend :)