3SOF

Good morning :)

It seems the bulls have the upper hand this morning. I'm opening my mind to the possibility of being wrong when I made that bear market call. Anyway, most stocks that I've sold are trading at lower prices now (some of them are 20% below my selling point), and I'm buying back 3 of them, the ones I'm more confident in their independence from the US business cycle.

This market downturn has led me to learn more about China and its economy. I particularly appreciated realcoolhead's posts, I wish he wrote them sooner, they put things into perspective. I also have learned interesting stuff about China on Morgan Stanley Stephen Roach's articles, namely:

China Squeeze (http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20070228-Wed.html)
The Heavy Lifting of Chinese Rebalancing (http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20070305-Mon.html)

They show I shouldn't be worried about China's banking system, Chinese Consumption or China going down due to lack of exports, because the composition of the Chinese GDP is quite unique. 45% is Investment, 35% is Consumption and 20% is Exports - Imports. So, what China needs now is to re balance its economy, slowing down Investment and taking measures to increase internal demand.

But I'm still worried about the US consumer. No doubt there won't be strong growth in the US going forward. But isn't that at least partially discounted in the share prices? Housing related stocks are trading at very cheap multiples. Banks too.

So I have doubts. I will let the market talk and respect its decision.

As I look to the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings, I guess those two options, because they are so near to maturity, are really a gamble. I believe GOOG and FMNC are very overvalued and they should go down, but I have no idea if that is going to happen in a week's time or not. I'll think of an exit strategy for those puts (fortunately I didn't put a normal position in them, position size is very important).

As for FRPT, I believe it will go down regardless of what the market does. Their revenues are not recurring and the company has no earnings to show. It sure isn't worth more than $1 B.

Considering QID, I'm interested in seeing the market's reaction towards the close today. I wonder if people that bought the dips won't take profits right away. If we bring up people holding but with doubts, they might sell on this second opportunity.

As for the future of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) and the right path so it can achieve its objectives, I'll write another post in a moment.

Have a nice day :)

March 6 David wrote about SVNT: "I guess probably you have your motives to enjoy this stock Rudy, but I couldn't find them on this quick analysis."  It's up close to a buck since then. My motive was to make money as a long, which I always am.  David, can you check MBLX, another of my weird choices (like DSTI, COR)

Good morning, everyone.

Per the post yesterday on RPTN: It''s down sharply this morning (~8%), however it has a wonderful 3-year weekly chart.

Also ICAD and OSTE look like longs with great promise.

Regards,
gwfox

Anybody know a good link or way to track realtime volume of the major averages for Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones?  I have Power Etrade, but pulling up charts doesnt usually seem to show the volume.  I know I can get somewhat delayed volume from stockcharts.com, anyone know other sources?

David,

Hope you don't waiver in your bear market call. I believe you are spot on. Last year you were early with your call - then came the May Dive. This market will whipsaw until it's drained everything $$$ of retail.

One of the traders I follow is making his initial buys of MZZ (Mid Cap Ultrashort)  today. He's been calling this market top since early January.

Best,

KC Scott

Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 08, 2007, 09:39:28 AM
March 6 David wrote about SVNT: "I guess probably you have your motives to enjoy this stock Rudy, but I couldn't find them on this quick analysis."  It's up close to a buck since then. My motive was to make money as a long, which I always am.  David, can you check MBLX, another of my weird choices (like DSTI, COR)

Hi Rudy, nice to see you and thank you for your hindsights :)

I'm sorry, but "I want to make money as a long" isn't a valid motive to buy/hold a stock. You either don't have a valid motive, and therefore you were lucky, or you have a motive, but can't explain what that motive is, or as a third hypothesis, you have a motive but you don't want to disclose it.

Perhaps you just don't have time to write a post explaining why you pick stocks the way you do, but since I know you're retired (stop what you're doing for www.nostalgia.com right now ;D), I challenge you to write a bit about your strategy.

Thanks :)

David, about your bear market call...
I was surprised when you shifted your market views in what was virtually an overnight decision. I must say that for the first time in a while, I didn't follow along with the recommendations. I don't think any of us here expect you to have an answer to any market move/correction within a matter of hours. Theres nothing wrong with going to cash in the portfolio for days or even weeks if thats what it takes for you to make an important decision.
 
On a different note. I'd like to talk a little about our website. I note that today, this morning, you sent out emails to the effect that we're adding back some old favorites: MSI, SILC and WCG. However on the "main portfolio" link in the selection bar at left, it doesn't show yet.  So, if you didn't get an email, as in the case of a member being out of town/ limited computer access, you would have to search the boards and sort out what to do and that takes time....

Just an idea. Two link bars at  the bottom of the two portfolios that read "todays instructions". They would take you to just that; what you've done, if anything, (no new instructions) and eliminate searching for what's up for either portfolio. I realize you must have advertisement on the site but I get lost in all the subterfuge sometimes.

          as always, thanks for the great work!
                                                  mitch

I would take todays upside with a grain of salt  ::). We will be much lower by the end of the day. Whats the reason we gapped up so much today? The foriegn markets? The foriegn markets usually follow the U.S. market not the other way around. If I had to take a guess I say we close the gap up today and even may see red. Excellent time to enter the short side. As for the long case today and last few days is just smoke and mirrors in my opinion low volume and nothing really showing strength. Wait for some important economic data to come out to show what direction the economy is heading.

Quote from: KCScott on March 08, 2007, 09:49:45 AM
David,

Hope you don't waiver in your bear market call. I believe you are spot on. Last year you were early with your call - then came the May Dive. This market will whipsaw until it's drained everything $$$ of retail.

One of the traders I follow is making his initial buys of MZZ (Mid Cap Ultrashort)  today. He's been calling this market top since early January.

Best,

KC Scott

I'm a bear for as long as the market closes below $141.69 on the SPY. If it closes above that level I'm not necessarily a bull, but not a bear either. I will look for specific stories then.

I have doubts. I'll let the market be the judge.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 09:56:12 AM
I would take todays upside with a grain of salt  ::). We will be much lower by the end of the day. Whats the reason we gapped up so much today? The foriegn markets? The foriegn markets usually follow the U.S. market not the other way around. If I had to take a guess I say we close the gap up today and even may see red. Excellent time to enter the short side. As for the long case today and last few days is just smoke and mirrors in my opinion low volume and nothing really showing strength. Wait for some important economic data to come out to show what direction the economy is heading.

Absolutely Correct - Applaud

We call it GAP & CRAP - and the QQQQ's are already tanking downward.
Institiutional can't wait to sell into any strength right now.

Market is starting to show weakness, I would short here its easy money.

My strategy is very simple: I spend hours trolling the web for information. For example, Paul Tharp in the NY Post wrote a very favorable item about MBLX. I was sure it was going to jump. I bought 5000 shares  at !8.51 and sold at 19. That was enough to pay for the caviar on my morning bagel. As for SVNT, that one's easy: Cramer. When he recommends an overlooked stock, I jump on it. I've made a huge amount of money buying his picks -- not the big cap stuff, but the little guys.  As for COR: I picked up on it based on an aritcle in Time Magtazine that mentioned it.  Hillary Clinton visited the DayStar (DSTI) outside Albany and I knew that news would move the stock.  I did this before I was retired. I use to read 5 or 6 papers a day plus tons of mags. Now I read the Times, WSJ and for the rest of my news, I use the web. The only time I use a white candle is to read a paper when the electriicty goes out. Regards, rudy

David what do you think of FSLR? Cramer was pumping it last night, however it does look attractive it uses non silicon materials to make solar panels (which I believe is the future for the solar industry and oviously the most cost effective way of doing it).

Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 08, 2007, 10:02:54 AM
My strategy is very simple: I spend hours trolling the web for information. For example, Paul Tharp in the NY Post wrote a very favorable item about MBLX. I was sure it was going to jump. I bought 5000 shares  at !8.51 and sold at 19. That was enough to pay for the caviar on my morning bagel. As for SVNT, that one's easy: Cramer. When he recommends an overlooked stock, I jump on it. I've made a huge amount of money buying his picks -- not the big cap stuff, but the little guys.  As for COR: I picked up on it based on an aritcle in Time Magtazine that mentioned it.  Hillary Clinton visited the DayStar (DSTI) outside Albany and I knew that news would move the stock.  I did this before I was retired. I use to read 5 or 6 papers a day plus tons of mags. Now I read the Times, WSJ and for the rest of my news, I use the web. The only time I use a white candle is to read a paper when the electriicty goes out. Regards, rudy

hmm, that's a good idea for short term trading, at least that. I should subscribe to the online editions of those newspapers and magazines. I'll take care of that during the weekend, thanks for the tip :)

Chiming in, I think the market will close green today but there will be another major drop soon.  It is going to do what it did last May .. after a further drop, it will rise again & everything will seem rosy.
Then .. maybe later this year will come the 'real' setback & if we are prepared, this will be a major opportunity to make money, especially with option puts.

The trick now will be to ride the next month or two as the mm's chop it around & try to scare us out both ways...

My 2 cents  ;D

Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 08, 2007, 10:02:54 AM
The only time I use a white candle is to read a paper when the electriicty goes out. Regards, rudy

Interesting!  I use white candles almost exclusively to make overnight momentum trades .. sometimes that's what keeps my account going when the other stuff fails.  ;)

I've sold QID @ 55.10 (I had bought at $54.5) and used the money to buy JADE @ $10.39. 33.3% of capital in this position. I'm a bull on the Chinese consumer. The company has a growing business with a high net profit margin. Of course, not everything is perfect, but I believe it will have another bull run. Market cap is just $182 M.

hi David,
may I kindly ask you about SMSI action the last 2 weeks?

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8054.60

thanks in advance

O.

Volume so far is pretty low today so far comparing to the previous days volume for the DIA, SPY, QQQQ.

David, would you take a look at NVTL? It has been amazingly strong during the past week. Thanks.

I bought to cover FRPT @ $15.49, with a 3% profit. There's nothing I can do, the stock is moving up and I just want out so I can look for stocks on fire.

MAMA is on fire today!

David,

I believe you mentioned something about a longer term Chart of the NAZ - see attached.

This is not mine, but a fellow trader who is calling for a much larger bear market.

Thoughts?

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/ndx1.gif)

Thoughts on CSPI...up 20% after earnings report.  Great growth and earnings.

I followed you on JADE David, sold my QID and bought JADE at 10.35$! Good luck to us! :)

Quote from: Se7en on March 08, 2007, 10:43:03 AM
I followed you on JADE David, sold my QID and bought JADE at 10.35$! Good luck to us! :)

I think david should of held QID and waited a little longer for enter JADE. JADE may move lower with the market which is showing some topping action.

David what do you think of the April 20th MA 90 PUT?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MAPR.X

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 10:45:42 AM

Quote from: Se7en on March 08, 2007, 10:43:03 AM
I followed you on JADE David, sold my QID and bought JADE at 10.35$! Good luck to us! :)

I think david should of held QID and waited a little longer for enter JADE. JADE may move lower with the market which is showing some topping action.

That would be nice because those puts are falling so much they're killing the Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). Damn it, I'll never touch options or any other leveraged product again.

David.  You know how happy I am because you bought JADE.  I sold about 2 weeks ago and I just bought today following your recommendation.  Applaud

;D

rptn.ob so far the nicest chart at otcbb if you ask me...... very good volume....i got my shares for sure....chart technical looks great.....it reminds me on frpt one year ago....

chart is 3 year weekly
the last 10 days it was not moving down...even when the market corrected...good sign...

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 10:52:11 AM

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 10:45:42 AM

Quote from: Se7en on March 08, 2007, 10:43:03 AM
I followed you on JADE David, sold my QID and bought JADE at 10.35$! Good luck to us! :)

I think david should of held QID and waited a little longer for enter JADE. JADE may move lower with the market which is showing some topping action.

That would be nice because those puts are falling so much they're killing the Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). Damn it, I'll never touch options or any other leveraged product again.

David I hope you don't swear off options totally, beacuse of this one bad experience. They could be a great way to increase the portfolio return as long as set certain rules in advance.

For Example:
Use no more than 10% of the portfolio
Buy with at least 2 months left until expiration.
Sell at least one month before expiration
No more than 2 open option positions at one time.

Tempting to reshort FRPT. I covered yesterday at 15.00 but it looks like a good re entry maybe today or tomorrow.

Ok, let me calm down now. I'm in no hurry to make any more trades today. Have you ever heard that no man is big to people that are close to him? Ok, since I disclose all my strategy, thoughts and trades, you get to see some of my successes but also failures, some of them nasty mistakes like those put options entry.

I'm just a man learning this game the hard way as everybody else here (of course).

I see you have some analysis requests, but as I walked for a coffee a couple of hours ago, I began to think of all the books I read, trades I made and bull and bear markets I've gone through.

I thought that we should really start working as a team to find great long term picks, because the money is made in the big swings, not it trading for short term fluctuations. Of course, you might think you have the ability to outsmart the market making several in and out trades, but my take is the very short term, unless it is based on a fundamental market inefficiency, is unpredictable.

As I think of my way of covering stocks, that is, making a technical analysis looking for the trend direction of the share price, and a few fundamental tests using the financials of the company, are good ways of eliminating stocks, but not the best way to pick them. I should concentrate on investing based on the business perspective.

So, don't bring me stocks. Bring me business descriptions. I'll tell you if I believe that business has a great future or not. Anyway, keep posting the way you please as we search for inspiration from all sides.

Good luck on your trades :)

I covered all my shorts. The dollar yen carry over is stronger and the asian markets will like that as well as our markets up. I followed dave on JADE and SILC. I also own SLV, CHL, EEM. I'm hurting with those puts so hopefully we can find some stocks on fire  >:D

David,

What do you think of SIMC, BPG, and ESST?

Jim

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:05:09 AM
Ok, let me calm down now. I'm in no hurry to make any more trades today. Have you ever heard that no man is big to people that are close to him? Ok, since I disclose all my strategy, thoughts and trades, you get to see some of my successes but also failures, some of them nasty mistakes like those put options entry.

I'm just a man learning this game the hard way as everybody else here (of course).

I see you have some analysis requests, but as I walked for a coffee a couple of hours ago, I began to think of all the books I read, trades I made and bull and bear markets I've gone through.

I thought that we should really start working as a team to find great long term picks, because the money is made in the big swings, not it trading for short term fluctuations. Of course, you might think you have the ability to outsmart the market making several in and out trades, but my take is the very short term, unless it is based on a fundamental market inefficiency, is unpredictable.

As I think of my way of covering stocks, that is, making a technical analysis looking for the trend direction of the share price, and a few fundamental tests using the financials of the company, are good ways of eliminating stocks, but not the best way to pick them. I should concentrate on investing based on the business perspective.

So, don't bring me stocks. Bring me business descriptions. I'll tell you if I believe that business has a great future or not. Anyway, keep posting the way you please as we search for inspiration from all sides.

Good luck on your trades :)

Hehe David go have fun with your wife  8), you seem to be stressed out from the options. I believe we will continue the bear trend the last 3 days have been a teaser to suck in more longs. With the trend you should stick with your bearish outlook or give it more of a chance David (usually our first choice is always right, I cant count how many times I second doubted my first choice because of short term movement and lost in the bigger moves :( ). It seems this whipsaw market is teasing people on both sides of the trade.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:05:09 AM
Ok, let me calm down now. I'm in no hurry to make any more trades today. Have you ever heard that no man is big to people that are close to him? Ok, since I disclose all my strategy, thoughts and trades, you get to see some of my successes but also failures, some of them nasty mistakes like those put options entry.

I'm just a man learning this game the hard way as everybody else here (of course).

I see you have some analysis requests, but as I walked for a coffee a couple of hours ago, I began to think of all the books I read, trades I made and bull and bear markets I've gone through.

I thought that we should really start working as a team to find great long term picks, because the money is made in the big swings, not it trading for short term fluctuations. Of course, you might think you have the ability to outsmart the market making several in and out trades, but my take is the very short term, unless it is based on a fundamental market inefficiency, is unpredictable.

As I think of my way of covering stocks, that is, making a technical analysis looking for the trend direction of the share price, and a few fundamental tests using the financials of the company, are good ways of eliminating stocks, but not the best way to pick them. I should concentrate on investing based on the business perspective.

So, don't bring me stocks. Bring me business descriptions. I'll tell you if I believe that business has a great future or not. Anyway, keep posting the way you please as we search for inspiration from all sides.

Good luck on your trades :)

I guess that means we are holding the puts until the end of session today.
GOOG has still not broken through yesterdays high and has another gap up today.
I think GOOG will at least retest the 450 market before breaking out, but I don't if it will be before next week.

Im suprised to see how many people are now changing their minds and flip flopping on their outlook on the market from Bear to Bull in a matter of just 3 days of weak volume buying. Becareful those switching back and forth before you know it you will have missed all the big moves. Its interesting seeing the psychology of fellow traders and how easily they will change with the movements in the market. I am sticking with the bearish outlook because of the techincal and fundamental outlook. I have a on the ground view of how things are going down here in Southern California with the economy. I have many friends and family members in debt upto their ears and see first hand of the toll the slowing housing market has on the California economy.

Well nullzero, indeed, the market can go down, there are strong reasons for it (although I got suspicious when I saw too many people joining the bear camp too easily - usually reasons aren't that apparent when a Bear Market is coming).

I sold stocks short and bought puts and didn't like the feeling of it, even if it is a bear market. Why? Because market timing doesn't seem like a successful long term strategy to me. Livermore was a market timer, and he couldn't keep his money (even though he was a genius).

With the world being so big now, I wonder if there won't always be great growth companies to invest in, regardless of the business cycles. For example, here in Portugal, we've had and we're still in an economic depression. Yet, some stocks are at all time highs because of their unique business characteristics.

The VIX turned bullish on my intraday chart I believe we are going to sink much lower heading into the close today.

QuoteI guess that means we are holding the puts until the end of session today.
GOOG has still not broken through yesterdays high and has another gap up today.
I think GOOG will at least retest the 450 market before breaking out, but I don't if it will be before next week.

No, those puts now are just 7.4% of the Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). I'm not going to sell them now, as both, GOOG and FMCN, can turn south on a dime. I'm still bearish on those two. I'll see if I get lucky. It would be one of the first times, since I'm not a lucky guy.

I'll keep holding those puts, the upside potential is now higher than the risk. But I won't forget the lesson, even if I'm lucky and get out with a not so ugly loss.

Agreed nullzero. I'm not buying this rally for the time being. We may end up going higher from here but I would like to see how the day closes first. I'm content to sit in cash with SKK being my only short position for now.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:18:41 AM
Well nullzero, indeed, the market can go down, there are strong reasons for it (although I got suspicious when I saw too many people joining the bear camp too easily - usually reasons aren't that apparent when a Bear Market is coming).

I sold stocks short and bought puts and didn't like the feeling of it, even if it is a bear market. Why? Because market timing doesn't seem like a successful long term strategy to me. Livermore was a market timer, and he couldn't keep his money (even though he was a genius).

With the world being so big now, I wonder if there won't always be great growing companies to invest in, regardless of the business cycles. For example, here in Portugal, we've had and we're still an economic depression. Yet, some stocks are at all time highs because of their unique business characteristics.

David I agree we must find the best of the bunch strong long term companies. However we should try to take full advantage of short to medium term trends if the supporting data is very strong for our position and we are confident that we are on the winning side.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 11:19:18 AM
The VIX turned bullish on my intraday chart I believe we are going to sink much lower heading into the close today.

You are correct

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/VIX.png)

I'll be adding to my QID

i just shorted MA  at 102.00...technicals are bearish...MA50 broken now resistence...

Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 11:17:58 AM
Im suprised to see how many people are now changing their minds and flip flopping on their outlook on the market from Bear to Bull in a matter of just 3 days of weak volume buying. Becareful those switching back and forth before you know it you will have missed all the big moves. Its interesting seeing the psychology of fellow traders and how easily they will change with the movements in the market. I am sticking with the bearish outlook because of the techincal and fundamental outlook. I have a on the ground view of how things are going down here in Southern California with the economy. I have many friends and family members in debt upto their ears and see first hand of the toll the slowing housing market has on the California economy.

i hear you nullzero. michigan economy sucks as well. it seems that everyone is ignoring the 400 pound gorrila in the room. i look at it like the market can be irrational long enough for you to lose your money. i'm on the edge of my seat and if things change i will modify my portfolio but i cant keep losing money shorting stocks. i can tell you one thing im more comfortable now that im long than i was short.

Hi David

what do you think about TRA. they are in fertilizers business and i believe its a good business even in down times



Thanks
A

Perhaps the best way is:

1. Keep searching for individual stocks that are fundamentally strong. So that even if there is a downturn, they won't get hurt much. I think the best way to look for those stocks are actually in a downturn, like the ones David just added back. (Again, I request NVTL to be analyzed  ;D)

2. If we see a likely downturn, no matter if it is a correction or a possible bear market. We short a portion of the portfolio on the entire market, not individual stocks! So, SDS, QID or even a long-dated put option on QQQQ/SPY etc. are fine, just not on individual stocks or put options on them.

That way, if the market goes up, those long positions will most likely outperform a lot more than a little drag on the short side; If the market goes down, we won't make much money. But if the market is down 20% I will be more than happy to make just 2%!

Remember, investment/trading is not all about money, MENTAL HEALTH counts too! Afterall, we invest/trade for the happiness of our lives, not to be stressful and sometimes miserable ...

A test for bulls and bears if post 10 things that you believe support the bullish or bearish position on the markets. I know I can post 10 things right off the top of my head for the bearish...

1) Negative savings rate for Americans not substainable

2) Manufacturing still in a recession in the U.S. (GM and Ford firing massive amounts of American employees, Michigan economy suffering)

3) Real Estate market and all the negative consquences related to it

4) Subprime Lender industry is poisoned!

5) Gas prices back over $3 dollars a gallon in parts of the country. Oil stable at over $60 a barrel.

6) Consumers tapped out of buying power due to over extending themselves in debt.

7) Massive government deficit

8] Financial Institutions highly leveraged in the market using Yen carry trade.

9) Majority of Buyouts and Buybacks supported by high leverage borrowing.

10) Majority of companies not reinvesting for future capacity or oppertunity. Instead they are giving money back to investors or stockpiling it.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 11:24:04 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:18:41 AM
Well nullzero, indeed, the market can go down, there are strong reasons for it (although I got suspicious when I saw too many people joining the bear camp too easily - usually reasons aren't that apparent when a Bear Market is coming).

I sold stocks short and bought puts and didn't like the feeling of it, even if it is a bear market. Why? Because market timing doesn't seem like a successful long term strategy to me. Livermore was a market timer, and he couldn't keep his money (even though he was a genius).

With the world being so big now, I wonder if there won't always be great growing companies to invest in, regardless of the business cycles. For example, here in Portugal, we've had and we're still an economic depression. Yet, some stocks are at all time highs because of their unique business characteristics.

David I agree we must find the best of the bunch strong long term companies. However we should try to take full advantage of short to medium term trends if the supporting data is very strong for our position and we are confident that we are on the winning side.

I am still with you Nullzero, this correction is not likely over.  I posted in the correction/bear market thread just now, but per IBD rules, this move Tuesday and today makes a valid follow through in their system very hard to come by.

I kept my QID, though covered two shorts that I didnt have conviction in from the beginning.  Definitely tough to be a bear for the last 3 days, but I think the market will be singing a different tune.

Anybody know a good way to check volume on the main indexes realitime?  I would like to check volume on this move, the best way I have currently is stockcharts.com, but it seems a bit behind realtime.  I will check yahoo finance next...

Anyway, I understand you want time to digest and take care of the short term. I'll shut up for today, going to read some articles and study a stock I believe has the potential to be a 10 bagger (it doesn't matter if it is a bull or a bear market), but I'm not completely sure because I didn't study enough about it: SILC.

Have a nice day :)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

David we should ask how terliso filters the majority of his stocks. Out of all the members I believe he has found the most multi baggers using his three magic line strategy (some of them didnt perform oviously but if used some hybrid filter with strict fundamental and business understanding put into the mix we could come out with 1-3 excellent stocks.)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

Exactly what I was talking about yesterday ... and you are our best hope to find the 10-baggers!  Our job is to help bring you the potential candidates.  Whether the market goes bull or bear, there are people who will start businesses & become billionaires in the next few years and we just need to get in on their stock before it is 'discovered'. 
Everything else we do in the meantime, longs, shorts, puts, calls, is just playing around & hopefully we will cut our losses promptly and let our winners run, but our main focus should be to find the next 10 (or 20, 30 -- 50?) bagger.   :)

David, even though I was the one first recommended SILC and also followed you in buying it back, I was really surprised you chose it as one to buy back. I still believe it is a very outstanding co., but it is after all, a tech stock and an Israeli one at that?

I really would like to see SILC fill its gap first .. (I have this thing about gaps...).  Maybe I will take a small position to watch it & add if it fills the gap or at least I'll be in if it takes off  ;)

Yen is up over 1% right now and still making new highs for the day  :o. Watch the Asian markets tonight should be interesting I believe we will see the Nikkei get hit pretty hard if it holds. The yen carry trade be be unwinding as we speak which can hold potential big problems for emerging markets. If the Yen starts moving up closer to its 52wk highs highly leveraged big money can start buying Yen in masses and close out of emerging market positions.

Check out hte EWJ (Japan Ishares ETF)

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 08, 2007, 11:51:57 AM
David, even though I was the one first recommended SILC and also followed you in buying it back, I was really surprised you chose it as one to buy back. I still believe it is a very outstanding co., but it is after all, a tech stock and an Israeli one at that?

Israeli economy is extremely bullish, I just read an article on it yesterday I will try to post it up here. Also Warren Buffet heavily invested in Israel a little over a year ago... so he believes it has huge potential as well.

Quote from: eggman11 on March 08, 2007, 11:03:34 AM

David I hope you don't swear off options totally, beacuse of this one bad experience. They could be a great way to increase the portfolio return as long as set certain rules in advance.

For Example:
Use no more than 10% of the portfolio
Buy with at least 2 months left until expiration.
Sell at least one month before expiration
No more than 2 open option positions at one time.

Rules 1, 2 & 3 are mine too .. but why #4?  Why only 2 positions?  As a Gemini, I need several positions for each personality  ;D
Seriously .. what is your reason for that limitation?  Thanks.

I have to laugh looking at the VIX right now, its been going down from its new recent high Monday to levels just slightly higher than the highs of December and January, about equal to September levels.

Yeah, everything is OK now, we had a huge down day 250 to 1 negative volume on the S&P last week, but it was just a blip, everything is OK now, nothing to see here people, keep moving on, absolutely NOTHING to fear. 

Seriously though, the market bounced, but expect the VIX to bounce after 4 big down days, and then as a consequence the market to go down again... 3 days of low volume buying isnt likely to heal the wounds to the technicals.



BTW, free applaud to anyone who can give me that online realtime volume source for $spx, $dji, $ndx etc.  Even Yahoo didnt have it. 

I found a very interesting company with a very unique chart...

SYGR

"Synagro Technologies, Inc. engages in recycling biosolids and other organic residuals in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residuals Management Operations, Rail Transportation, and EFD. Residuals Management Operations segment offers residuals management services. Rail Transportation segment engages in the transfer and rail haul of materials in various states where the material is typically either land applied or landfill disposed. EFD segment engages in the construction management and start up operations of new processing facilities, as well as the marketing and sale of pellets and compost fertilizers. As of December 31, 2005, the company operated 6 heat-drying and pelletization facilities, 5 composting facilities, 3 incineration facilities, and 32 permanent and 40 mobile dewatering units. As of the same date, it served approximately 600 municipal and industrial water, and wastewater treatment accounts in the United States and the District of Columbia. Synagro Technologies was incorporated in 1986 as BMP Marketing, Inc. and changed its name to Synagro Technologies, Inc. in 1994. The company is based in Houston, Texas"

SYGR was immuned to the market downtrend and the chart shows huge buying volume back in January. Bullish looking chart, Not to mention it has a 7% yield divy! Looks like a good bearish market proof stock.

I dont know why the market hasnt reacted bearishly to this.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070308/retail_sales.html?.v=11

"As merchants reported monthly sales results early Thursday, those with disappointing results included Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp. and plenty of apparel stores like Abercrombie & Fitch Co. High-end stores like Nordstrom Inc. continued their winning streak, underscoring that well-heeled consumers don't buy on need."

When Walmart is showing disappointing results that is not a good sign for consumer spending.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 12:17:07 PMSYGR was immuned to the market downtrend and the chart shows huge buying volume back in January. Bullish looking chart, Not to mention it has a 7% yield divy! Looks like a good bearish market proof stock.

Synagro Tech to be bought by Carlyle Group for $5.76 a share

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b67AD05D9-0839-4844-BAE6-01468DF82A1C%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Quasi

David,

I have some concerns about Jade:
According to Yahoo
High amount of debt 43M vs. 10M in cash

Dilution

Shares outstanding Diluted
                    2005             2004             2003             2002
Basic          13,439           11,119           8,757           8,551                        
Diluted       14,322           12,107           9,706            8,551

And they already announced that there was more dilution in 2006. In their press release previewing the fourth quarter The did not file 2006 numbers

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4927676&Type=HTML

Also Jade is foreign company that does not report a 10K on a quartely basis. They will trade at lower valuation than their peers.

A little concern about SILC
SILC is also a foreign comapny that does not report a 10K on a quarterly basis.
SILC dilution is a lot better, but not great.
2001- 2005 the share count has been pretty stable, but
in 2006 (Basic not Diluted) it jumps almost 22% from 4,276 to 5,198 based on their 6K.

I know foreign companies will always look cheaper and a better value than their 10K filing peers, but they will always remain cheaper until or if they are fully reporting.  Do you take that into count in your analysis.

Thanks

David,

You need to relax, step back a little and look at the big picture and that's what you're very good at.

I agree with your overall take on the market, maybe timing a little off, maybe not.  I started having the same feelings last fall and scaled back my exposure to about 50%  cash, now sitting at about 60%.  I'm not a daytrader so my views are more in the weeks and months range, like you have said before make money in the middle of the trend.  Don't try to catch bottoms or sell the absolute tops.

When I look at the major index's there was a critical event which caused major technical damage to the charts. (daily and weekly charts).  This will take some time to correct, we all expected a retrace after last Tuesday and that is whats happening, like you said "line in the sand" is the mid point of the first big red candle.  Well the last couple of days we stalled at the FIB  23.6% level, today the high so far is stalling right around the  38.2% level.  In order to just get up to the mid point of the big red candle we will need to get into the 50% to 62.8% retrace range.  There is a lot of overhead resistance and I think huge resistance to set new highs on the major index's  for quite some time.  For me last Tuesday really showed how fragile this house of cards really is, at this point.

In just a few days we seem to have all gone from Bulls to Bears to Not Sure to Bulls to Not Sure to HELP !!.  Well several weeks ago most of us watched the daily and weekly charts, now all of a sudden we seem to be making decisions base on the day to day 10 and 60 min charts and are becoming day traders, playing the momentum game.  Now that's OK if that's your game and you generally don't hold overnight (in this current market).  The market is in major whipsaw mode, not a good time and I will just sit it out, and I won't try to make long term trend predictions based on whats happening on the 10-60 minute chart, I'll leave that to the guys on CNBC.

For me there is no real overall trend right now and I'm waiting for the dust to settle, (but heavily leaning bear or at least more correction to come).  It's really had to make money all the time, (ie 10% every week, week after week), there are dry spells, I learned a long time ago that I should NOT try to push the markets during those dry spells as the risk is very elevated.  I always remember something that goes sort of like this, "When there is nothing to do, the best thing is to do nothing...",  might have been Buffet I think.

Bottom line David step back, re-focus and look at the bigger picture.  Not always a bad thing to wait for entries rather than trying to force them.

JMHO and subject to change without notice.

Hey Nullzero, agree with your great posts on the overall outlook, my feelings also.

Quasi

Quote from: TraderStar on March 08, 2007, 11:59:31 AM

Quote from: eggman11 on March 08, 2007, 11:03:34 AM

David I hope you don't swear off options totally, beacuse of this one bad experience. They could be a great way to increase the portfolio return as long as set certain rules in advance.

For Example:
Use no more than 10% of the portfolio
Buy with at least 2 months left until expiration.
Sell at least one month before expiration
No more than 2 open option positions at one time.

Rules 1, 2 & 3 are mine too .. but why #4?  Why only 2 positions?  As a Gemini, I need several positions for each personality  ;D
Seriously .. what is your reason for that limitation?  Thanks.

The only reason to just keep 2 positions open is strictly for the 3 stocks one fire portfolio and I believe by having only 2 positions (equal to 20% of the portfolio) in options is something David would be comfortable with. Maybe if his comfort level rises it could change.

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 12:12:09 PM.....
BTW, free applaud to anyone who can give me that online realtime volume source for $spx, $dji, $ndx etc.  Even Yahoo didnt have it. 

Every thing is OK now, gotta like those pump and dumpers over at CNBC.

As for real time volume on index's, would be nice to have, I've also looked for it without any luck.  Also I don't really believe the numbers on Stockcharts even though the index price is real time I think the volume quoted is much further behind. 

The data feeders can track and calculate the price rather quickly but I don't think they are doing it accurately on the volume side, just too many underlying stocks in the index to keep track of, trading on so many different exchanges.

But if you find one be sure to inbox me with the details.

thanks
Quasi

Anyone like the looks of OVEN?  Moving nicely today on good volume.

VII moved alot today. Iv been watching since Mrchina said something back on 8-2-07 last month and my!  It was on fire... 6.8 then up to 9 now today. Its been a day trading machine the past month up and down.. It could be over, what do you guys think. Way too late now...    Funny google shows the news that made the increase today but yahoo and MSN have yet to show it? could go up more but who knows, it already moved so much. Should have jumped in on 2-9 when it was at 7.65 but i bought GSS rather for a nice return when someone mentioned it (but it had to large of a cap for this fire section) Thanks KCScott   

This forum is great.. i think ill have to sign up sooner or later. Great suggestions and honest thoughts. Im a young mug learning the ropes. Thanks guys.

edit- news not new.. ha

QuoteDavid,

I have some concerns about Jade:
According to Yahoo
High amount of debt 43M vs. 10M in cash

Dilution

Shares outstanding Diluted
                     2005             2004             2003             2002
Basic          13,439           11,119           8,757           8,551                       
Diluted       14,322           12,107           9,706            8,551

And they already announced that there was more dilution in 2006. In their press release previewing the fourth quarter The did not file 2006 numbers

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4927676&Type=HTML

Also Jade is foreign company that does not report a 10K on a quartely basis. They will trade at lower valuation than their peers.

I share your concerns on JADE and wrote about them a few days ago. But I'm starting to wonder eggman11, if those two tests, that is, the evolution of the number of shares outstanding and the file/no file of 10 - Q forms are a sound tool to predict the long term movement of a stock.

I mean, if they grow from 40 to 100 and then to 1,000 or 10,000 stores, who cares about the past share count evolution or the file or no file of the form 10-Q?

What was the share count evolution of MSFT in 1991?

Trying to enter a deeper level here, questioning the strategy, learning more.

Quote from: Quasi on March 08, 2007, 12:25:15 PM

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 12:17:07 PMSYGR was immuned to the market downtrend and the chart shows huge buying volume back in January. Bullish looking chart, Not to mention it has a 7% yield divy! Looks like a good bearish market proof stock.

Synagro Tech to be bought by Carlyle Group for $5.76 a share

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b67AD05D9-0839-4844-BAE6-01468DF82A1C%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Quasi

ah didnt see that in the news articles

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

You could assign selected posters an industry or two to "cover".  There is no way any single one of us could analyze every stock on our own.  Combined, we may be able to do so.

Here is nice list of industries and the stocks associated with them:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

Say for example, I will cover the "Agricultural Chemicals" industry.

There are 30 or so stocks that are in that industry:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/112_cl_all.html

Over a weekend, I could analyze all 30 of those and find the 1 or 2 potential 10-baggers that perhaps deserve further scrutiny.

In fact, I'll do just that this weekend.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 12:57:45 PM

QuoteDavid,

I have some concerns about Jade:
According to Yahoo
High amount of debt 43M vs. 10M in cash

Dilution

Shares outstanding Diluted
                     2005             2004             2003             2002
Basic          13,439           11,119           8,757           8,551                       
Diluted       14,322           12,107           9,706            8,551

And they already announced that there was more dilution in 2006. In their press release previewing the fourth quarter The did not file 2006 numbers

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4927676&Type=HTML

Also Jade is foreign company that does not report a 10K on a quartely basis. They will trade at lower valuation than their peers.

I share your concerns on JADE and wrote about them a few days ago. But I'm starting to wonder eggman11, if those two tests, that is, the evolution of the number of shares outstanding and the file/no file of 10 - Q forms are a sound tool to predict the long term movement of a stock.

I mean, if they grow from 40 to 100 and then to 1,000 or 10,000 stores, who cares about the past share count evolution or the file or no file of the form 10-Q?

What was the share count evolution of MSFT in 1991?

Trying to enter a deeper level here, questioning the strategy, learning more.

David

The past share count evolution is a sign the management won't hesitate to issue more shares they already announced that more shares were issues, we won't know how many until the file their 20-F. There also have negative operating cash flow. (I am guessing these shares we issued to fund their expansion) any insight into this would be appreciated.

About SILC,

As I mentioned before the share count was stable from 2001-2005 and then jumped up 22% this year. Do you know anything about this? I was think they made an acquistion or something, but I didn't see any news about this.

Thanks

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:00:33 PM
ah didnt see that in the news articles

Yes I pick up lots of charts like that one in some of my scans.  And I find that chart pattern almost always (98%) means a buyout.  So I just look at the date of the spike and check the news around that time.

Now if its a cash buyout the chart will be very flat and if stock buyout there will be some movement which follows the buyers stock price, but still usually with pretty low volatility.

Like your posts and agree with your longer term take on the market.  Not well right now and waiting for new trend to be confirmed.

Quasi

As for shorting from a strategic point, there are long term limitations to that game:

1) The maximum long term return expectancy is 99.99%, unless

2) One uses leverage.

Thinking of 1, that is a low long term rate of return. I mean, would you buy a stock you think it will give you 100% over a number of years in the best case scenario?

Thinking of 2, and buying puts is always a leveraged position (if it isn't leveraged it is the same of shorting the stock but with additional problems), leverage doesn't increase the long term return, because risk jumps a lot when one is using leverage (not to mention the way one's hands weaken).

Just trying to think about the big picture as Quasi recommended ;)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:36:44 AM
Anyway, I understand you want time to digest and take care of the short term. I'll shut up for today, going to read some articles and study a stock I believe has the potential to be a 10 bagger (it doesn't matter if it is a bull or a bear market), but I'm not completely sure because I didn't study enough about it: SILC.

Have a nice day :)

David do you mean SILC is one of those 10 bagger ??  :o

take a look at this CPST

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 08, 2007, 01:07:03 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

You could assign selected posters an industry or two to "cover".  There is no way any single one of us could analyze every stock on our own.  Combined, we may be able to do so.

Here is nice list of industries and the stocks associated with them:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

Say for example, I will cover the "Agricultural Chemicals" industry.

There are 30 or so stocks that are in that industry:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/112_cl_all.html

Over a weekend, I could analyze all 30 of those and find the 1 or 2 potential 10-baggers that perhaps deserve further scrutiny.

In fact, I'll do just that this weekend.

Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:15:39 PM
Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

I agree.  I guess we would need a headcount of who is willing to participate and reach a consensus as to the most immediately relevant industries. 

Naturally, I am in.  Anyone else?

We would also need a list of criteria to sort out the companies we look at. A market cap max would help a lot. Maybe market cap max of 5 Billion or 1 Billion?

Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 08, 2007, 01:20:15 PM

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:15:39 PM
Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

I agree.  I guess we would need a headcount of who is willing to participate and reach a consensus as to the most immediately relevant industries. 

Naturally, I am in.  Anyone else?

I think it is a great idea.
I am in also.

Good stuff Mr R

Now tell me would you still look at an x stock of yours ETLT.
It looks like someone wants in and there are few sellers. It appears to look bullish to me but I defer to your view.
NAV around USD1.5 and results within three weeks

I like the fish farming industry, I think it has tons of potential espically since natural fish population is declining rapidly due to over fishing.

HQSB chart looks really good, I havent reviewed its bussiness to much but anything in the fish farming industry I would say has a bullish bias to it. The only problem is the volume has died off a little as of late but we may see it come back.

QuoteDavid

The past share count evolution is a sign the management won't hesitate to issue more shares they already announced that more shares were issues, we won't know how many until the file their 20-F. There also have negative operating cash flow. (I am guessing these shares we issued to fund their expansion) any insight into this would be appreciated.

I'm not entering the JADE's case at this point (I'll do it later). I agree that the share count evolution shows the willingness or not of management to issue more shares, thus diluting shareholder's value.

My question is if that is such a big matter in the grand scale of things. Did MSFT dilute shareholder's value in the late 1980's? Did Cisco dilute shareholder's value in  1990?

I would like to know that, since MSFT is up 284 fold since its IPO in 1986 and CSCO is up 334 fold since its IPO in 1990.

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:23:41 PM
Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

8:30 EST

David your case for JADE is one of the reasons I like XING so much. What do you think?

Quote from: ygtrdr on March 08, 2007, 01:31:21 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:23:41 PM
Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

8:30 EST

Thanks  :)

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:33:49 PM

Quote from: ygtrdr on March 08, 2007, 01:31:21 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:23:41 PM
Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

8:30 EST

Thanks  :)

You're welcome.

Here is a good link for the economic calendar.  :)

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Hi David,

I know I have mentioned this one to you before, but please have another look at OMNI.  They are an oil services company based primarily in the gulf odf mexico and as the larger oil servces companies have reiterated recently, they don't see oil price fluctuations having a serious impact on their revenues (which are set to steadily expand) as oil companies will continue to need exploration, seismic drilling and environmental services.  I have mentioned before that they are growing rapidly through acquisitions, and I anticipate them tripling quarterly revenues this quarter when they report (most likely) next week.  They are heavily undervalued in terms of P/E and despite a degree of problems in terms of their balance sheet (largely due to these acquisitions), this is a company that is really excecuting on their business plan of growing the company to be one of the premier oil services companies in the US.

Finally, the intraday says it all - they just broke out above key resistance with massive volume and are on fire!! my thoughts is that the numbers may have begun to leak and we are seeing the beginning of a significant pre-earnings run.  Hopefully this is a bit more of what you are looking for as opposed to "XXX is on fire!!!"  

Here is what is drivig this breakout:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90)

Anyway hope all is well with you, ST

David, I've been meaning to ask you about a microcap co. I am very much interested in and have been watching for some time. I know the chart looks bad now (I am more of a fundamental value hunter anyway) but I would REALLY appreciate and value your fundamental analysis and opinion on it.  THNX in advance.

AMK

American Technical Ceramics Corp. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of radio frequency/microwave/millimeter-wave ceramic capacitors, thin film products, and other passive components worldwide. It offers multilayer capacitors, single layer ceramic capacitors, and passive resistive products, as well as provides resistors, terminations, attenuators, and other customized products. The company?s products are primarily used in ultra-high frequency and microwave applications, including wireless electronics, medical electronics, semiconductor equipment, satellite equipment, and fiber optics. It sells its products primarily to the manufacturers of microwave, high frequency, and fiber optic systems, including original equipment manufacturers, and electronics manufacturing services companies and suppliers. American Technical Ceramics was founded in 1966. It was formerly known as Phase Industries, Inc. and changed its name to American Technical Ceramics Corp. in 1984. The company is headquartered in Huntington Station, New York.

The company appears to be nicely diversified within their industry. I'm going to take the lazy way out and copy a synopsis of the situation from a recent yahoo poster;

>>Something I posted on MFCaps  (Not rated)       7-Mar-07 03:32 pm     American Technical Ceramics Corp is a thinly traded (57000 average volume for 3 months) small cap (currently 113M) company. The CEO holds over 50% of the company and insider ownership is around 55%. Though there have been a few insider transactions they have been minimal even during a 50% stock price increase (.4%). The company has established sales channels in the US, Europe and Asia, with wholly owned subsidiaries in Sweden and China, and offices in Germany and Russia. They consider their products "The Engineer's Choice", I have not read any reviews on their product to back this claim however.

It looks to me like the price of the stock had a quick run up that was much to large for the news (in December they announced that they would be moving a portion of their operations offshore to Costa Rica to reduce production costs.) On that news the stock had a 50% which was defiantly too high.

At the beginning of February the company released their 2nd quarter results, operations ended December 31st 2006. In this report they announced a slowdown in revenue growth, and a decrease in second quarter earnings compared to quarter 2, 2005. As far as I could tell this slow down was explained by 3 things.

1. Cost of severance packages (remember the news of moving operations to Costa Rica that caused the stock to shoot up in price)
2. There is a seasonality slowdown that extended further than expected, however the company saw an end to this in January and notes that they have had increased sales for that month. Forward looking statements include "The company expects that sales for the remainder of the fiscal year will be strong."
3. Lower gross margin realized due to a "less favorable product sales mix."

The result of this bad quarter resulted in a 1 day 28% loss in the stock price. The stock continued to loose an additional 15% over the next few weeks. After going up a bit, the stock lost 10% on march 5th. In all the stock is down close to 60% from the high seen when the company announced the move to off shore.

I feel the severance packages are a one time expense that should be overlooked as a whole. As the company saw an extended slowdown this year, I think this is something that may need to be factored in as an expectation for future years. However as the company has seen a strong demand and increase in sales for January to make up for the seasonality issue I consider it a minor factor. I am concerned with the lower gross margins, and hope that the move of some operations to offshore will help to overcome this.




When I saw the last price drop of 10% I felt that I needed to do more digging on the company, and I have decided to increase my position in AMK next week if the price holds below 13.00 (initial position was @13.93). Though I do not believe that another good earnings report would warrant putting the stock back into the $20.00 as some have stated, I do believe that this stock should be around the $16.00 level. However on a thinly traded stock like this you can get big spikes on news. In addition, the stock is currently trading at a 12.5 price to earnings verses an industry 19.4, if they can prove with a few good quarters that they warrant a P/E to match the industry by increasing earnings at the industry 20% growth, that would put the stock around $23 at the end of 2007. However I think that $23 is more than we will actually see.

Cheers,
stevie<<

 

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 08, 2007, 01:20:15 PM

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:15:39 PM
Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

I agree.  I guess we would need a headcount of who is willing to participate and reach a consensus as to the most immediately relevant industries. 

Naturally, I am in.  Anyone else?

Sure, I'm in.

I guess we need a few days of thinking and brainstorming as you say to find the perfect industries/characteristics of winning stocks.

Quote from: Quasi on March 08, 2007, 12:39:14 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 12:12:09 PM.....
BTW, free applaud to anyone who can give me that online realtime volume source for $spx, $dji, $ndx etc.  Even Yahoo didnt have it. 

Every thing is OK now, gotta like those pump and dumpers over at CNBC.

As for real time volume on index's, would be nice to have, I've also looked for it without any luck.  Also I don't really believe the numbers on Stockcharts even though the index price is real time I think the volume quoted is much further behind. 

The data feeders can track and calculate the price rather quickly but I don't think they are doing it accurately on the volume side, just too many underlying stocks in the index to keep track of, trading on so many different exchanges.

But if you find one be sure to inbox me with the details.

thanks
Quasi

Didnt find one but here is my current strategy to get the info.  I am just googling Google News for the name of the exchange and the word "volume".  Then I do a text search in the articles that come up for "volume".  

Doesnt always get me the exact exchange I was looking for, but I usually find a few volume numbers and at least then have a time stamp.  For NYSE looks like Stockcharts wasnt that far behind, so maybe that is useable after all.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

Hi David

OK I'll bite, what's the time frame for this 10 Bagger definition.  If its fairly short it going to be pretty hard in the Mid caps. pennies yes but risky and volatile and would probably get tripped out before the full 10 anyway.

Have I had any, yes a couple, mostly in the Junior O&G area in Canada on the TSE big board.  Not the ventures exchange as I would call that more like pennies or at least similar to OTC type stocks.

I'm currently looking alot in the uranium area.  Now there are tons of new upstart pennies out there who are in the exploration business, not for me.  But I'm looking at companies who own actual mines and properties around them which were shut down 20-30 years ago when uranium was in the $10 range.  They just weren't profitable any more.  They have proven reserves and lots of geological data already done and these were previously working mines which are more easily permitted to reopen, if they are not already still in operation.

Also now with urainium at $85++ and the shortages and Cameco mine flooded in Saskatchewan, and ERA in Australia yesterday declared force majeure on its uranium oxide sales contracts after heavy rainfall affected production at its Ranger mine, the pressure is on.

Just a sector suggestion for the board.

Now for my ultimate 10 bagger ++++, which I actually owned, but no don't get exited I only took out a 1.5 Bagger, got tripped out.  Basically I was too early and was in and out of the red for a few months, then just wanted to look at other things.  Chart below, but ignore the annotations its an older chart I used in a post somewhere to explain log vs linear scaling on longer term charts.

I won't tell you how many bags this one was, makes me sick, but there were a few pull backs where I would have been tripped out anyway.  I was in at 45 cents.

Quasi

QuoteDidnt find one but here is my current strategy to get the info.  I am just googling Google News for the name of the exchange and the word "volume".  Then I do a text search in the articles that come up for "volume". 

Doesnt always get me the exact exchange I was looking for, but I usually find a few volume numbers and at least then have a time stamp.  For NYSE looks like Stockcharts wasnt that far behind, so maybe that is useable after all.

Why don't you use the ETF's volume tokyopua? For example, the SPY volume for the general market volume analysis? The volume changes are pretty similar.

For Tokyo's volume you can also use the Japanese stock's ETF, now I can't quite remember its symbol ...

This stock just popped up on my fundamental filter.

USU

"USEC, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies low enriched uranium (LEU) for commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It sells separative work units (SWU) component of LEU, the SWU and uranium components of LEU, and uranium. SWU is a standard unit of measurement that represents the effort required to transform a given amount of natural uranium into two streams: enriched uranium having a higher percentage of U235 and depleted uranium having a lower percentage of U235. The company also performs contract work for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE contractors at the Paducah and Portsmouth plants, which includes the maintenance of the Portsmouth gaseous diffusion plant in a state of readiness or cold standby, processing out-of-specification uranium, and provision of infrastructure support services. In addition, USEC provides nuclear energy solutions and services, including design, fabrication, and implementation of spent nuclear fuel technologies; nuclear materials transportation; and nuclear fuel cycle consulting services. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland."

Market Cap (intraday): 1.30B
Enterprise Value (8-Mar-07)3: 1.23B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.15
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1: 30.98
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.68
Price/Book (mrq): 1.27

Chart looks extremely bullish. Industry is very bullish, business looks solid. Fundamentals show its very cheap.

Quote
I'm not entering the JADE's case at this point (I'll do it later). I agree that the share count evolution shows the willingness or not of management to issue more shares, thus diluting shareholder's value.

My question is if that is such a big matter in the grand scale of things. Did MSFT dilute shareholder's value in the late 1980's? Did Cisco dilute shareholder's value in  1990?

I would like to know that, since MSFT is up 284 fold since its IPO in 1986 and CSCO is up 334 fold since its IPO in 1990.

In the case of a rapidly growing company, isn't it possible that the company could make a strategic decision to fund all or part of their growth through dilution? If they chose to do it that way,  conceivably it could result in less risk to investors, rather than more. The expansion has to be funded somehow, and by using dilution rather than borrowing, they avoid the problems of debt service and fluctuating interest rates. It would be different if the company is just funding operations with dilution.

David, Sorry to jump all over this, but while I don't think OMNI will be a 10-bagger from here, it could easily be a double.  From this PR just released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90)

They are estimating earnings in excess of $40M from over $175M in revenue for 2007.

Their current OS shares are 17.5M plus 2.9M convertible:

QuoteOMNI currently has outstanding approximately 17,500,000 shares of common stock, with approximately an additional 2,950,000 to be issued upon conversion of OMNI's 9% Series C Convertible Preferred Stock.

Which means they have a forward P/E of 5!!!  I would find it very hard to believe that this stoock will not be trading above $15 in 6 months time.  Please have a look, I think this company represents some serious value.

wow,CHCG on fire again.

nullzero,
USU looks very interesting.

Any idea though why forward P/E is > training P/E?
Thanks,
Nick

QuoteBut I'm looking at companies who own actual mines and properties around them which were shut down 20-30 years ago when uranium was in the $10 range.  They just weren't profitable any more.  They have proven reserves and lots of geological data already done and these were previously working mines which are more easily permitted to reopen, if they are not already still in operation.

Also now with urainium at $85++ and the shortages and Cameco mine flooded in Saskatchewan, and ERA in Australia yesterday declared force majeure on its uranium oxide sales contracts after heavy rainfall affected production at its Ranger mine, the pressure is on.

Just a sector suggestion for the board.

That uranium theme seems like a nice speculation theme, Hugh Hendry also brought it up today on CNBC. My question is, are there any stocks in this industry traded on the US exchanges, and I wonder if their valuation reflects or not the spectacular rise in uranium prices?

I guess I should subscribe to technical and fundamental data for Canadian stocks too, a lot of opportunities in your country :)

QuoteNow for my ultimate 10 bagger ++++, which I actually owned, but no don't get exited I only took out a 1.5 Bagger, got tripped out.  Basically I was too early and was in and out of the red for a few months, then just wanted to look at other things.  Chart below, but ignore the annotations its an older chart I used in a post somewhere to explain log vs linear scaling on longer term charts.

I won't tell you how many bags this one was, makes me sick, but there were a few pull backs where I would have been tripped out anyway.  I was in at 45 cents.

That's my point. "I would have been tripped out anyway". I guess one should have a strategy that keeps him on board of such a great stock like that through the ups and downs. I believe the only way to achieve that is to invest from a business perspective. Not invest in the stock, but in the business, in a way the stock price doesn't matter all that much, because, over the long term, the share price will always reflect the fundamentals of the business (unless there's a ton of dilution).

I'm also considering realcoolhead's words about quality of life. I would like to own shares because of the deep research I made, keep track of my investment and incoming information, but not to care too much about short term price swings, because they make me nervous and I suspect won't bring me as much success as I want to have in the 35 years of investments I hopefully have ahead of myself.

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 08, 2007, 01:53:50 PM
nullzero,
USU looks very interesting.

Any idea though why forward P/E is > training P/E?
Thanks,
Nick

"USEC forecast a 2007 loss of $10 million to $20 million on revenue of $1.86 billion."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b41A3BF22-A3CD-47B8-B88A-A17C47B65D17%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

They are forcasting a loss but that doesnt mean events can change in 2007 and they can have a earning suprise to the upside.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:42:21 PM
This stock just popped up on my fundamental filter.
USU

Yes USU has been on my uranium watch list for some time and the chart is interesting, been waiting for the right entry.  But mostly just sitting on my hands in the current market conditions.   However starting to think in this sector the general market has no bearing.

As for USU I think they are the only enrichment operation in the USA.  Now there are others in Europe and we know Iran is heading in that direction also.

Quasi

anyone still interested in ACY? if you look at 30 minutes chart, it is bouncing from a support. This stock doesn't trade with market, a good one to play. I have just reentered the trade. It has a possibility to run back to $24.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on March 08, 2007, 01:47:34 PM
David, Sorry to jump all over this, but while I don't think OMNI will be a 10-bagger from here, it could easily be a double.  From this PR just released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90)

They are estimating earnings in excess of $40M from over $175M in revenue for 2007.

Their current OS shares are 17.5M plus 2.9M convertible:

QuoteOMNI currently has outstanding approximately 17,500,000 shares of common stock, with approximately an additional 2,950,000 to be issued upon conversion of OMNI's 9% Series C Convertible Preferred Stock.

Which means they have a forward P/E of 5!!!  I would find it very hard to believe that this stoock will not be trading above $15 in 6 months time.  Please have a look, I think this company represents some serious value.

Hi Scotsman

I had a look and I like what i see  :)

Does anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

David,

With your new strategy, I hope you consider the including some options in the mix.
Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

P.S. Someone else asked this, but I did not see a response. Are you reseraching SILC as a potential 10-bagger and considering it for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio?

Thanks

Quote from: ScottishTrader on March 08, 2007, 01:47:34 PM
David, Sorry to jump all over this, but while I don't think OMNI will be a 10-bagger from here, it could easily be a double.  From this PR just released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90)

They are estimating earnings in excess of $40M from over $175M in revenue for 2007.

Their current OS shares are 17.5M plus 2.9M convertible:

QuoteOMNI currently has outstanding approximately 17,500,000 shares of common stock, with approximately an additional 2,950,000 to be issued upon conversion of OMNI's 9% Series C Convertible Preferred Stock.

Which means they have a forward P/E of 5!!!  I would find it very hard to believe that this stoock will not be trading above $15 in 6 months time.  Please have a look, I think this company represents some serious value.

You're not reading the news well ScottishTrader, the news says Net Income of $17 M, not $40 M (that's EBITDA). With 20,450,000 shares outstanding, the market cap is 20,450,000*$10.05 = $205,522,500, so the forward earnings multiple is $205,522,500/$17,000,000 = 12.1, not all that low when considering the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry average of 16 (trailing here).

I see the balance sheet is very weak and there has been dilution. I don't like it when small companies issue this type of speculative guidance, it looks like they're after our money.

Perhaps it will run to the upper end of the technical channel at $11.47, good luck :)

Uranium plays are a great area to be in. I think thats what the main portfolio is missing. The higher oil prices go the more attractive uranium gets, energy will always be needed to power our cities and electronics. Not to mention electric cars and more massive eletric subways and transit systems will put huge demands on more electricty. No matter what the market does everyone will need electricity.

Here are some Uranium plays to look at

CCJ
USU
URZ
FRG

Also EXC and D if you want to be on the nuclear power side of the trade.

NEW tanking again after the rebound into the 5s. Looks like they are indeed going bankrupt.

Fair enough. And thanks for having a look at it.  Maybe their estimates are not quite as exciting as I thought.  However, I still think OMNI will see a good run here, and should perform very well in 2007.  I see it as one of my long term holdings.

VIX getting jiggy with it... big white candles, things could get interesting here.  I actually want a strong close for the bear case IBD style yo, but the VIX might be saying otherwise...

Quote from: makingmoney on March 08, 2007, 02:01:42 PM
anyone still interested in ACY? if you look at 30 minutes chart, it is bouncing from a support. This stock doesn't trade with market, a good one to play. I have just reentered the trade. It has a possibility to run back to $24.

I guess anything can happen since ACY is just a $33 M market cap, but the daily chart looks like it is making a top.

Why do you like it, just the chart? I would like to hear about its long term prospects, because being such a small cap with no dilution history, I mean, anything can happen.

QuoteDoes anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

I agree - plus, with that spike today GOOG closes the gap it left a week or two ago.  I think by mid next week GOOG will be back down to $440 or lower.

I think we should look at the growing demand for broadband such as LVLT for example. I'm sure there are some small cap companies that are going to grow exponetially. You can now download movies on XBOX. Apple is coming out with a movie download box. Everything around us tells us there will be a bandwidth shortage but what will be the best play? I'm certaintly not an expert but I think its the right industry for a 10 bagger. I think SILC is a good start.

VIX is running up fast time to short. The DOW intraday support is being tested. I think last hour and a half is going to be brutal. The bear is coming back  >:D.

VIX getting jiggy with it... big white candles, things could get interesting here.  I actually want a strong close for the bear case IBD style yo, but the VIX might be saying otherwise...

QuoteIn the case of a rapidly growing company, isn't it possible that the company could make a strategic decision to fund all or part of their growth through dilution? If they chose to do it that way,  conceivably it could result in less risk to investors, rather than more. The expansion has to be funded somehow, and by using dilution rather than borrowing, they avoid the problems of debt service and fluctuating interest rates. It would be different if the company is just funding operations with dilution.

Yes, that is possible. If they use the money from selling shares to grow revenues and profits at a higher rate than if they just kept growing using cash flow, shareholder's benefit from dilution. Some people don't call that dilution.

I say that everytime the share count rises (with the exception of a stock split) there's dilution, because the value of each share you hold declines, your shares represent less of the company. Now, if "less of the company" is worth more than "more of the company" because of the way the money is used, that's fine. We could call that "benign dilution" :)

Quote from: eggman11 on March 08, 2007, 02:06:38 PM
Does anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

David,

With your new strategy, I hope you consider the including some options in the mix.
Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

P.S. Someone else asked this, but I did not see a response. Are you reseraching SILC as a potential 10-bagger and considering it for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio?

Thanks

GOOG closed the gap on the chart below and it sure looks weak. It has another gap opened between $445.5 and $447.38. IT may go down to close that gap over the next couple of days, that would be great.

Longer term, as you know, I believe the company will disappoint investors throughout 2007, because their business of online advertising is losing momentum, at best.

Quote from: eggman11 on March 08, 2007, 02:06:38 PM...Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

Careful Eggman, I'm Canadian and might take that as an insult, LOL

Yes if you're looking at the Canadian Ventures Exchange pennies they are very much like OTC BB and Pink sheets in the USA, more lax standards.  However like I've said before I usually avoid those unless I do alot or reseach and then take the risk accordingly.

However with respect to the big board TSE, I totally disagree, their standards are just as high as the NYSE.

As always JMHO and subject  to change upon receiving new data at any time.

Here's my current watch list in the sector, most are on the TSE big board, couple on the Ventures and 3 on the NYSE.

AXU.TO CCO.TO FRG LAM.TO MGA.TO PDN.TO PNP.TO SXR.TO TEL.V UEX.TO UPC.V URZ USU

And yes for the most part many of the charts look very similar as most track the uranium price and spike up and down on any news of new shortages, like Cameco's mine flood and then again yesterday on the ERA mine flood &  declaring "force majeure" on their current sales contracts .  Haven't been able to find if ERA trades in the US.   Nullzero you know ???

Quasi

David, on ACY, here is my bull case:

1) in its most recent qtr, it made 35cents. there is no reason to believe they will make less in next 4 qtrs. because aircraft leases are long term and the income is stable. so at minimum, on a 15PE, it is a $21 stock. on 20PE, it is $28.

2) this is likely a good holding in a slow economy because the leases are long term.

QuoteDavid,

With your new strategy, I hope you consider the including some options in the mix.
Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

P.S. Someone else asked this, but I did not see a response. Are you reseraching SILC as a potential 10-bagger and considering it for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio?

Thanks

I forgot to reply this part. Options in the mix? I'm not sure, they're too risky, even using just a small part of capital. I'll think more about it, but I want to get away from leverage.

SILC for the Fire Portfolio? That could be interesting ... I still didn't have time to dig more about it, you're writing too many posts :)

But I'll do it now, don't expect posts from me for the next hour, see ya :)

really starting to tank!

Markets giving up the gains as we head later in the day. We will end in the red today.

Dont know sorry Quasi. I believe we are going to red today on the market however.

There go the "Sell" Switches - QID on Fire

VIX is climing up the stair case. Big money is shorting the market and buying the puts for tomorrow. I am definately staying the short side.

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 02:20:21 PM
VIX getting jiggy with it... big white candles, things could get interesting here.  I actually want a strong close for the bear case IBD style yo, but the VIX might be saying otherwise...

$VIX gapping up on the 3 and 5 minute chart, serious bear raid happening here.

If VIX continues to rise I would expect the market to be in total red by the end of the day.

Smoke and Mirrors I tell ya! They are luring in more headless bulls so they can slaughter them on the next bear raid.

CSPI is on fire. It reports 27 cents in Q4, trades at 10.25 now.

SIGA is rising like mad on heavy volume.

Exactly. Many years ago you would usually only see them around military bases or in depressed areas. now it seems they have migrated to much more seemingly prosperous areas everywhere, although many times they are still next door to a liquor store. Hmm.

QID pattern looks a bit like a STEPS pattern, if nothing else it bounced on the 10ema today.  Tomorrow at 8:30 am we will all know better where this crazy market is headed... GLTA