3SOF

Here's an historical price chart of palladium:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37105;image)

It seems to be starting a new bull market, and there's ample justification for that:

«Softer than platinum, ductile and resistant to oxidation and high temperature corrosion, palladium is useful in eliminating harmful emissions produced by internal combustion engines. Autocatalysts are by far the largest user of palladium; autocatalysts convert over 90 percent of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen produced in the exhaust from gasoline engines into carbon dioxide, nitrogen and water vapor.»

See other uses of palladium here: http://www.stillwaterpalladium.com/uses.html

Unfortunately I don't have as much time as I would like to cover PAL, so let me focus on my valuation model:

1) Dilution factor

Despite being a mining company, PAL has just about 1% average annual dilution rate over the past 6 years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=pal&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr).

2) Revenue CAGR

There's no long term historical revenue growth trend, but over the past 6 quarters I see very strong growth: $14 M in Q3 2005, $22 M in Q4 2005, $26 M in Q1 2006, $31 M in Q2 2006, $37 M in Q3 2006, $43 M in Q4 2006 and the recently announced $68.4 M revenues in Q1 2007, with the company achieving profitability.

I see at least 100% revenue growth in 2007, say 75% in 2008 and 50% in 2009. I'm going to put 75% revenue CAGR in my three year valuation model, subject to revision later if needed.

3) Net profit margin estimate

Net profit margin in Q1 2007 was 8%. I expect this to expand to 10% in the future, but it can be a lot more, it depends on the future price of palladium and nickel

4) EPS multiple estimate

The Industrial Metals & Minerals industry trades at 22 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=PAL), so I'll use this for my estimation.

The valuation model results are:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37106;image)

49% share price CAGR, and I believe there's plenty of upside to that net profit margin estimate, especially if I'm right and the price of palladium enters a new long term bull market.

Look what PAL's management said about the palladium market at its 1st quarter results:

«Palladium production at the Lac des Iles Mine is on track to meeting previously announced guidance of approximately 290,000 ounces and, as expected, average head grades in 2007 continue to align with historical averages for the mine. Management believes that the palladium market has broken out of prior years' surplus pressures into a demand-driven pricing environment. This is supported by the increasing global catalytic demand for clean air metals fueled by growing low-tolerance emission legislation.»

Trading Plan:

Buy PAL, 6.66% of capital as always.

David, thanks for the tip. Looks interesting.
Nick

Cramer pumped this one up...

Consolidation is key in the nickel market right now, and Cramer's speculative play here is North American Palladium (PAL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr).

The company has 22% nickel by revenue, and there is no analyst coverage of it, which means no one other than Cramer is paying attention, he said. "It is the single best play on nickel around."

Last year, PAL's realized price for nickel was $11.65 a pound, he said. Now nickel is trading at $23.85 a pound. This means that even if PAL didn't increase its nickel production at all, it would almost double its nickel revenues, Cramer explained.



In addition, PAL's exposure to nickel is unhedged, so it stands to gain with spot market prices, he said. And as nickel prices continue to escalate, PAL's production prices are going down. Someone should be willing to bid for this company, and market players should consider buying it, Cramer said.

However, people must only use limit orders when buying the stock, or they will be in pain, he stressed. And they should also space out their buys, Cramer advised. "There will not be a takeover tonight ... so take your time and do it right."

When did Cramer pump this?  I try to stay away from stocks he pumps. 

Just out of curiousity yukii, did you buy it?

Quote from: DragonAMG on May 22, 2007, 09:49:05 PM
When did Cramer pump this?  I try to stay away from stocks he pumps. 

Just out of curiousity yukii, did you buy it?

He been touting it since may 8th. No I didn't buy it. maybe a good short here....

yukiii are you an only child that never broke the habit of looking for attention or do you just get off on always contradicting the opinions of David.  You obviously know how to invest and some value your thoughts, but your biased contradictions are inappropriate. 

Just stating the facts, so people don't go blindly go into a trade, without the facts.
Last year I would just tarde on the advice and it worked out good, this year alot of the picks are at the top or bad selections not sure what the problem is. The Market keeps going up and david picks keep going down. I believe that means something. I am doing great with my other picks, and i am just trying to help you guys out. In the 3SF I only have GIGM, NVTL, SILC  and some CIMT at $7.60.

I see many of the new selections not much effort was put into them, and they are dead money,
David keeps saying I believe it will go up based on hope not facts.
I was in EXM when it was $10 and bought and sold it a few times, don't know why anyone would pick it at its high, ouch

JAKK is famous for no growth and again another pick at the top......

If you want to lose your money go ahead, I don't like to give any up.
I said CIMT was a 50/50 gamble but again you guys went blindly into it.

If the selection are good I won't say anything, but there was to much negitive things to say about most of the selections lately.

I think you need a new plan to make selections as I stated before. I would sell off most of these and start all over. Just keep GIGM, NVTL and SILC, CIMT.

I think i proved myself, that i am right more then wrong.

Anyways if you don't want me around, I can always leave and go my way.....
3 S on Fire portfolio is up 18% ytd same as my mutual fund, David I know you can do better.

Yukii...you have a point there.  I value your opinion.  It helps me make decisions.  Keep it up.  Thanks.

Yukiii,

  I've done quite well with many of David's picks so I cant complain; however, I believe that your voice adds value to this forum and I, for one, hope that you stick around...nothing wrong with a dissenting opinion. We're all big boys and girls.. from thesis and antithesis comes synthesis!

QuoteJust stating the facts, so people don't go blindly go into a trade, without the facts.

Usually you post your personal opinion, not facts.

QuoteLast year I would just tarde on the advice and it worked out good, this year alot of the picks are at the top or bad selections not sure what the problem is.

That's your personal opinion on the picks selected. I disagree with your opinion. Talking about the facts, in 2006 the Main Portfolio was up 20%, in 2007, not yet 5 months into the year, it is up 18.4%. So, the fact is the portfolio is doing much better this year, in fact, twice better.

QuoteThe Market keeps going up and david picks keep going down. I believe that means something.

The Main Portfolio has been trading sideways, not down, as some holdings are going through corrections:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37156;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37157;image)

QuoteI am doing great with my other picks, and i am just trying to help you guys out.

Sure you are. You provided a lot of help to people that followed your article and buy of THCH (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9458.msg97390#msg97390):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37158;image)

QuoteIn the 3SF I only have GIGM, NVTL, SILC  and some CIMT at $7.60.

I hope you don't have CIMT at $7.60. Everybody is free to pick the stocks he thinks are the best, my selection is the stocks everybody sees in the Main Portfolio. But I do find it strange that you're holding NVTL, after what you wrote about it on April 25 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9157.msg96635#msg96635).

QuoteI see many of the new selections not much effort was put into them, and they are dead money,

Not much effort? Again, that's your personal opinion, I strongly disagree. Perhaps, for example, you put a lot more effort when you were recommending BBC, when the stock was above $11 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3755.msg62894#msg62894), saying others didn't knew the company well, just before plunging to less than $2 and being removed to the Pink Sheets:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37159;image)

Quoteand they are dead money,
David keeps saying I believe it will go up based on hope not facts.

They're not dead money, my picks take time to rise, as it happened in the past. Hope? I don't know where to find hope in what I write, I make analysis and formulate expectations about the future, that's not hope.

QuoteI was in EXM when it was $10 and bought and sold it a few times, don't know why anyone would pick it at its high, ouch

Sure you did. But in your 215 posts (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=profile;u=5584;sa=showPosts;start=210) I don't see any talking about EXM while it was below $20.

QuoteJAKK is famous for no growth and again another pick at the top......

JAKK has been enjoying strong revenue and profit growth, it doesn't matter if it was achieved through organic growth or acquisitions, since there wasn't any dilution either.

QuoteIf you want to lose your money go ahead, I don't like to give any up.
I said CIMT was a 50/50 gamble but again you guys went blindly into it.

The Main Portfolio is up 18.4% in 2007, nobody that is following it is losing money. CIMT wasn't a 50/50, there was seasonality involved. Anyway, people buying when I recommended buying are losing just 5.5% on that holding. Nobody was blind, I gave all the facts and wrote the stock could go down 20% if EPS were lower than $0.03 in this quarter, but that wouldn't mean anything for the long term.

QuoteIf the selection are good I won't say anything, but there was to much negitive things to say about most of the selections lately.

The recent selection still didn't have time to prove itself. No stock is down more than 10% from my buying point. Give them more time to get into the green.

QuoteI think you need a new plan to make selections as I stated before. I would sell off most of these and start all over. Just keep GIGM, NVTL and SILC, CIMT.

You would, but I won't.

QuoteI think i proved myself, that i am right more then wrong.

You didn't prove anything. I have here a dozen of other examples where your picks were a disaster. If you want to prove something, set up a portfolio, put your trades with the right price at the right time, do that for 2 years and then we can talk. This would be great ... do you want to have your own portfolio at 3 Stocks?

QuoteAnyways if you don't want me around, I can always leave and go my way.....

You stick around, sometimes your warnings and information are useful, but I think you should stop with the acid critics, because your ceilings are made of glass too.

Quote3 S on Fire portfolio is up 18% ytd same as my mutual fund, David I know you can do better.

Lol, which one is your mutual fund, I bet it is in the top 2% of the US mutual funds.

My job is very hard to do and I do it with all the strength I have and with 100% honesty. I make mistakes like everybody else and I'm very far away from perfection.

I wish I didn't have to write this post, because I have more important things to do and already lost one hour and a half writing it ... next I'll post PAL's update.

PAL's revenues depend heavily on palladium and nickel:

«- Palladium sales in the quarter were realized at US$352 per oz compared to US$330 per oz in the comparable quarter last year, while by-product metal prices also realized considerable gains. Palladium accounted for 45% of first quarter total revenues while nickel continued to be an important revenue source at 28% of revenue.»

The prices on these two metals are much higher now than what they were in Q1:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37160;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37161;image)

So one should expect better financial results in Q2 than in Q1. And Q1 was already quite pleasing for PAL, as one can read at the earnings release (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070509/0250883.html).

I'll keep on holding PAL.

Thanks for setting things straight. lets just keep making money instead of little spats. Lord knows I need to make some mula I have another baby on the way and diapers are getting expensive.
;D

Hi David,

Had to applaud you on your respons to bmarc4211. He was getting a little under my skin. I especialy appreciated your last remark

"You stick around, sometimes your warnings and information are useful, but I think you should stop with the acid critics, because your ceilings are made of glass too."

Could not agree more. C'est la tone qui fai la musique. Opinions are good they help us all, but for crusades this is not the place.

Keep up the good work.
Amarens

David,

You're right about giving time for the stocks in the main portfolio to materialize.  After all, it's long-term investing.  Thanks for all your hard work.

here's a good article on palladium which basically states that we're expecting growth. Good pick David, keep it up:

Palladium substitution caps platinum demand
Platinum's sister metal will be increasingly used in gasoline and diesel autocatalysts as a lower cost substitute.

Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted:  Tuesday , 22 May 2007

JOHANNESBURG - 

Growth in platinum demand is limited by its more affordable sister palladium increasingly used to manufacture both gasoline and diesel autocatalysts.

David Jollie of Johson Matthey told Mineweb the increased use of palladium in autocatalysts would not stop platinum demand from increasing but would place a ceiling on future growth.

This comes as the substitution of platinum by palladium in autocatalysts is set to grow this year and in future. Johnson Matthey is a speciality chemicals company focused on catalysts, precious metals and fine chemicals.

The use of palladium in autocatalysts grew to 4.02m ounces last year from 3.87m ounces in 2005 and the palladium component of a platinum-based diesel autocatalyst rose from a very low base (around 0%) to around 10% last year.

Gasoline autocatalysts comprised of about 70% palladium and the balance platinum in 2005 and just below 75% palladium and the balance platinum in 2006.

The growing price differential between platinum and palladium over recent years has provided car manufacturers an incentive to switch catalyst formulations for gasoline vehicles from those based on platinum and rhodium to palladium-rhodium technology.

"Auto makers have worked hard to minimise their precious metals costs since platinum started trading at a premium to it sister metal in 2001, by both thrifting and substituting it with palladium in gasoline catalysts," said the Johnson Matthey Platinum 2007 review.

"This trend has been ongoing for several years, but the switching process has not yet proceeded to its maximum extent."

Car manufacturers have the option of using different mixes of the platinum group metals in many of their vehicles' exhaust systems - particularly those with spark ignition engines.

The introduction of new emissions legislation also requires the development of new catalysts and presents the ideal opportunity for companies to replace previous platinum-based catalysts with palladium-based ones.

Palladium is also starting to gain a small foothold in the diesel vehicle market as it is being used in diesel oxidation catalysts and particulate filters.

And it is set to play an increasing role in diesel aftertreatment as platinum-palladium diesel autocatalysts were first fitted to vehicles in 2005. 

Mixed with platinum, palladium can maintain catalytic activity in diesel vehicles to enhance thermal stability at a reduced overall cost.

However, current technology only features palladium as a relatively minor precious metal component, alsongside platinum. Growth in the use of palladium will therefore only dampen growth in platinum consumption in this sector a little.

bmark4211:

Talking about PAL.  You nailed it PAL . Applaud !!!

David don´t waste your time and ours on these issues. New applaud for you.
There are some people that try to grow under the shadow or at leader's expense.
Just a suggestion (and last) for sarcastic profile guys please avoid arrogance in
your comments, just stick to TA & specific fundamentals and all our community
will enjoy everybodies thoughts.

My analogy in this matter is very simple.This site is owned and operated primarily by David and Ramsburg.We are all guests either paid or unpaid.We may not have to accept everything said by the host but we sure have to respect it.As far as guiding people to the right path we have bunch of numb nuts doing that already, they are usually know as analysts.Let people make their own decisions right or wrong, so that they can grow as better traders or investors.

PAL continues to consolidate recent gains and it is now a $604 M market cap ming company. I truly enjoyed the 1st quarter results (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070509/0250883.html), let me make some highlights:

- Revenues in the first quarter of 2007 rose by 117% to $68.4 million compared to $31.5 million in the first quarter of 2006. Palladium revenues of $31.1 million increased by 85% while by-product metal revenues of $37.3 million improved by 154%.

I expect growth going forward, but if the next three quarters are similar to the first, PAL will have 2007 full year revenue of $273.6 M, so the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.2. The Industrial Metals & Minerals industry trades at 3.25 times revenues (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=PAL).

Let me make a quick comparison between PAL and SWC, its closest competitor, using just Q1 2007 results:

- PAL had sales of $68.4 M, SWC had sales of $146 M. PAL's price to sales ratio (considering just this quarter) is 8.83. SWC's is 7.94.
- PAL had net income of $5.507 M, SWC had net income of ($1.06 M). PAL is profitable, SWC is losing money.
- PAL's revenues grew 117% from Q1 2006. SWC's revenues grew 5% over the same period.
- PAL's market cap is $604 M, SWC's is $1.16 B.

I think there's no doubt PAL is much more attractive than SWC. I'll keep holding PAL.

Volume has been going down since crammer hyped it, looks like it will fill the gap to $10.20

Nickel Down 10% this week so far does not help, this was crammers nickel takeover play. 22% of rev is from Nickel.

Quote from: yukiii on May 24, 2007, 04:42:11 PM
Volume has been going down since crammer hyped it, looks like it will fill the gap to $10.20

Nickel Down 10% this week so far does not help, this was crammers nickel takeover play. 22% of rev is from Nickel.

Yes, but Palladium accounted for 45% of revenue (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070509/0250883.html). It's interesting to note that Palladium revenues rose 85% from the year ago levels, but Palladium prices rose just 6.7%, which means production increased a lot:

North American Palladium Reports 68% Increase in First Quarter 2007 Palladium Production (//http://javascript:qm_showNews_7976('5186882',%20'PAL'))

The stock closed right at the $10.79 short term support. Perhaps it will go down to close the gap at $10.23, but I believe fundamental value is superior, since PAL is a $578 M market cap mining company, which will have 2007 revenues of at least $274 M and it is profitable. I defy anybody to find a more attractive mining company in fundamental terms (ex-copper, because those are the still the cheapest).

I'll keep on holding PAL.

PAL    $ 10.83
North American Palladium Ltd   0.04
Shares Short   2,119,000
Days to Cover (Short Ratio)   4.5
Short % of Float   7.89 %
Shares Short - Prior   1,346,200
Short % Increase / Decrease   57.41 %

I feel more confident with PAL than with ROY because of the two following issues:

1) Palladium is at the start of a new bull market. Nickel already had a 400% or so advance:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37351;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37352;image)

2) PAL has a 2007 estimated price to sales ratio of about 2 and ROY of about 7.

Moreover there's an emerging trend on stainless steel makers (nickel's biggest buyers) to substitute nickel for less expensive metals or diminishing the grade of nickel in steel. The situation for palladium is inverse, it is starting to be used as a substitute for platinum, which is 4 times more expensive.

I'll continue holding PAL.

David
If you listen to CC and read there report, they say production for 2007 will be 290000 ounces
The first quarter was already  79,000 ounces that would be no growth going forward.
Also for some reason  cash cost per ounce was only $15 per oz in the first quarter.
On the conference call he slipped it out that cost would be around $40 per ounces.
2007 earnings around .25 to .28
That would make the first quarter hard to beat and the value for Pal at $10.75 to $12.00 for 2007
2008 would depend on the price of Palladium.

QuoteDavid
If you listen to CC and read there report, they say production for 2007 will be 290000 ounces

I'll listen to the conference call for the next update, thanks for these highlights yukiii.

QuoteThe first quarter was already  79,000 ounces that would be no growth going forward.

The way I read it yukiii, the 290,000 ounces were palladium only:

«Palladium production at the Lac des Iles Mine is on track to meeting previously announced guidance of approximately 290,000 ounces»

And Palladium production in Q1 2007 was 70,634 ounces. Anyway, no significant growth in production expected, they're expecting to keep producing at the same rate as in Q1 2007 for the remainder of the year. But that represents strong growth from the year ago levels, since palladium production in 2006 was 237,338 ounces (and 177,167 ounces in 2005).

QuoteAlso for some reason  cash cost per ounce was only $15 per oz in the first quarter.
On the conference call he slipped it out that cost would be around $40 per ounces.

Hmm, that's a $25 difference on the cost. Palladium prices are $368 - $346 = $22 higher now than the 1st quarter average, so we're talking about a $3 profit per ounce difference from Q1, where the company had $0.10 EPS.

If palladium prices rise some more the company will easily surpass the $0.10 EPS it had in Q1 2007. Therefore I believe your expectation of ...

Quote2007 earnings around .25 to .28

... is too conservative. I see at least $0.40 2007 EPS.

QuoteThat would make the first quarter hard to beat and the value for Pal at $10.75 to $12.00 for 2007
2008 would depend on the price of Palladium.

My take is PAL doesn't need to beat Q1 numbers because its revenue and earnings multiple should expand. It's one of the cheapest mining companies outthere (ex-copper mining).

I'll keep holding PAL.

"Brother, Can You Spare a Nickel? North American Palladium Ltd. (PAL)

Although PAL is known for its palladium, Cramer thinks this $10 stock is a great way to play nickel consolidation. PAL is not yet a well-loved stock, is not covered by any analysts, and if it gets a takeover bid for its nickel, Cramer comments he "can't even imagine how high this orphan stock would jump." He notes nickel prices are rising while PAL's production costs are falling and the company produced 2.7 million pounds of nickel last year. He believes it will get a bid, but warns that it is a speculative stock and investors should use limit orders when buying."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/34948

I think you need hold this puppy for the "take over" possibility as well.

Quote from: wxmang on May 30, 2007, 05:50:55 PM
"Brother, Can You Spare a Nickel? North American Palladium Ltd. (PAL)

Although PAL is known for its palladium, Cramer thinks this $10 stock is a great way to play nickel consolidation. PAL is not yet a well-loved stock, is not covered by any analysts, and if it gets a takeover bid for its nickel, Cramer comments he "can't even imagine how high this orphan stock would jump." He notes nickel prices are rising while PAL's production costs are falling and the company produced 2.7 million pounds of nickel last year. He believes it will get a bid, but warns that it is a speculative stock and investors should use limit orders when buying."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/34948

I think you need hold this puppy for the "take over" possibility as well.

Yes, there are some big global players buying nickel related companies:

«On Wednesday morning, Xstrata  (other-otc: XSRAF -  news  -  people ) announced it was selling all of its aluminum interests to Apollo Management for $1.15 billion. Apollo Management is a New York-based private equity firm run by billionaire Leon Black, the 160th richest person in America.

The divestiture of the aluminum assets doesn't come as a complete surprise since the Swiss miner has focused on its nickel production recently. The company only acquired the aluminum assets in its purchase of nickel miner Falconbridge in 2006.

In late March, Xstrata announced it would also buy the Canadian nickel miner LionOre Mining International for about $4 billion. (See: "Xstrata Sees Value In Nickel.")

Chief Executive Mick Davis of Xstrata explained that its aluminum holdings were just too small to compete with bigger producers. "These assets do not provide Xstrata with the necessary scale or upstream exposure to represent a suitable entry point from which to build a world-class aluminium business," he said Wednesday.»

Anyway, I don't like to speculate around these takeover possibilities. They may take years to come or never happen at all. Also, PAL is more of a palladium company, instead of Nickel (even though 28% of its revenues in Q1 2007 came from nickel production).

Where's yukiii's bearish post about PAL? There was a lot of juice in it. Perhaps he opted to stop being such a drag and buy the stock instead ;D I hope so. (I'm just kidding, although we've had some tough divergences in the past, yukiii's comments have helped me to look deeper on my holdings - getting more or less confident about them).

Technically PAL held $10.79 on close, and in my view it will trend higher and ultimately breakout above the descending trendline on the chart, which currently stands at $11.41.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Still here, finished with my comments on PAL, I like EGO much better.

Quote from: yukiii on May 31, 2007, 02:21:35 PM
Still here, finished with my comments on PAL, I like EGO much better.

EGO, a $1.87 B market cap with $77 M in revenues in 2006 and EPS of $0.01 (therefore trading at 570 times trailing earnings). Good luck :)

PAL is a $571 M market cap with projected 2007 revenues of about $280 M. In my view EPS will be something like $0.4 (it was $0.10 in Q1 2007).

If palladium prices breakout above $382 (closed at $373 yesterday) ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37488;image)

... no doubt PAL will also breakout above its short term descending trendline, currently at $11.35. I'll keep on holding PAL.

Its all in the way you look at things.  I look forward you are looking at the past.
rev 2007 213.99M   Rev  est 2008  258.93M     
.01 2006 .21  2007   .30 2008

Press Release   Source: Eldorado Gold Corporation

Eldorado Gold Corporation: Q1 2007 Financial and Operational Results-Record Earnings
Friday May 4, 7:59 am ET

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 4, 2007 -- (all figures in United States dollars, unless otherwise noted)
Paul N. Wright, President and Chief Executive Officer of Eldorado Gold Corporation (Toronto:ELD.TO - News)(AMEX:EGO - News), is pleased to report on the Company's financial and operational results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2007. "This was a very successful quarter for Eldorado," he stated. "We produced over 88,000 ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost of $220 per ounce and fully expect to meet our forecasted 2007 production of 310,000 - 330,000 ounces of gold at an approximate cash operating cost of $225 per ounce."

ADVERTISEMENT

Q1 2007 Highlights

- Generated record earnings of $0.04 per share.

- Began commercial production in February at our Tanjianshan gold mine in China, producing 26,770 ounces of gold at a cash operating cost of $260 per ounce (Total production for the quarter for Tanjianshan was 39, 252 ounces of gold).

- Produced a total of 88,780 ounces of gold from our operations at a cash operating cost of $220 per ounce.

- Completed 14,000 meters of drilling at our Efemcukuru project in Turkey.

Financial Results

Our consolidated net income for Q1 2007 was $12.6 million or $0.04 per share compared with a net loss of $7.5 million or ($0.02) per share in Q1 2006. Cash flow generated from operations before changes in non-cash working capital totaled $20.2 million. This increase in net income resulted from higher revenues from gold sales due to both increased production and higher gold prices, increased interest revenues and lower production costs, offset by increased exploration activities and administrative expenses.

In Q1 2007, we sold 64,177 ounces of gold at an average price of $647 per ounce, compared to 15,656 ounces at an average price of $549 per ounce in Q1 2006. In the first quarter of 2006, we were only producing gold from our Sao Bento mine; now, one year later, we are producing gold at Kisladag and Tanjianshan, our low-cost mines in Turkey and China respectively.

Operating Performance

Kisladag

At the end of the quarter, the Kisladag leach pad held 7.8 million tonnes of ore at a grade of 1.2 g/t Au, and we produced 43,601 ounces of gold at a cash operating cost of $192 per ounce. During the quarter we mined and placed 1.8 million tonnes of ore at an average grade of 1.2 grams of gold per tonne on the leach pad. In 2007, we are forecasting production of 190,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of $210 to $220 per ounce.

We continued to work on expanding the mine, which included bringing on line an additional five million tonnes per year of crushing, screening and conveying capacity, increasing the total screening and crushing capacity to 10 million tonnes per year. Additional expansion activities include constructing three additional leach pad cells, building a truck and crusher maintenance shop and adding pond capacity. Commissioning of the new system is underway with steady state production at capacity anticipated in Q3, 2007.

Tanjianshan

Tanjianshan officially commenced commercial production on February 1, 2007 and in March we received our Gold Mining Certificate from the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China. During the first quarter we produced 38,252 ounces of gold of which 26,760 ounces were for commercial production at a cash operating cost of $260 per ounce. We mined 117,000 tonnes of ore at average grade of 6.56 grams per tonne. We are forecasting 2007 production of approximately 120,000 to 130,000 ounces of gold at an average cash cost of $235 to $245 per ounce.

Sao Bento

During the first quarter, we processed 20,069 tonnes of ore at a grade of 8.88 g/t Au and produced 5,927 ounces of gold at a cash operating cost of $245 per ounce. We ceased ore production at Sao Bento on January 20, 2007 and are now working on mine reclamation activities at the site.

Development

Efemcukuru

Drilling to support the Efemcukuru Project feasibility study continued throughout the quarter with work completed by three contract and two Tuprag drill rigs. Drilling in the quarter totaled 8,010 meters in 39 holes with approximately 6,000 meters remaining to be drilled.

Activity focused on the South Ore Shoot ("SOS") area. Drill holes here continued to target gaps in the drill coverage, concentrating on delineation of the higher grade and thicker portions of the system. Ongoing drilling is also testing the down dip and plunge extensions of the SOS vein and gold mineralization. Middle Ore Shoot ("MOS") work focused on infilling an existing coverage gap above 600 meter reference line to surface in the high grade portion of this zone. MOS drilling also tested around the KV-141 intersection to the south. Transition zone (KV-129 area) holes have also been started this quarter. Looking ahead we will focus on infill and extension targets in SOS and transition zone.

Work continues on the Efemcukuru feasibility study with completion anticipated by mid-year.

Villa Nova Iron Ore

We completed in 2006 a pre-feasibility study of the Vila Nova Iron Ore project in Brazil showing a pre-tax net present value of $91.7 million, on a 100% basis. Permitting for the project is at an advanced stage and we plan to make a construction decision in the second quarter of 2007.

Exploration Outlook

Our total exploration budget for 2007 is $14.2 million, which will be used to fund exploration activities in Brazil, Turkey, and China. The programs in all three countries are results driven and may be adjusted during the year to reflect priority targets.

Turkey

During Q1 2007 we concentrated our exploration efforts on three of the Biga Peninsula properties which are accessible throughout the year. As weather permits field crews will begin work in the Demir joint venture and in the Pontide district.

On the Biga Peninsula during Q1 we drilled at the Kirazli, Kuscayiri, and Dogancilar concessions. At Kirazli, nine short reverse circulation holes were drilled to test a high sulfidation trend. The best results were 4.9 g/t over 9.0 meters and 6.5 g/t over 4.5 meters. Reverse circulation drilling at Kuscayiri (8 holes) targeted anomalous gold in soil samples. It appears that the holes intersected high sulphidation mineralization and alteration, and areas of more porphyry-like mineralization, but with generally low grade gold values. Mapping and sampling continue in both properties.

Diamond drilling began on the Dogancilar property in March with 425 meters drilled in three drill holes. Target for these holes was the Kecikiran vein. The vein was successfully intersected in one of these holes: stockwork type mineralization was intersected in the others. Assay results are pending. Review of core logs of the older 1990's holes show that porphyry style alteration and mineralization are present that may not have been fully recognized in the past. This core will be re-examined during the next quarter.

Exploration plans for the remainder of 2007 include drilling programs at the high sulfidation target on the AS project (Demir JV), as well as at Mahmur Tepe, Koyulhisar, and Aydogan Tepe, all in the Pontide Volcanic Belt. We will also continue our aggressive grass roots and generative programs in geologically prospective terrain throughout Turkey.

Brazil

The final assay results on step out holes at the Vila Nova joint venture gold project ("JV") did not show intervals of either significant grade and/or mineralized widths. Our review of the data during the beginning of the quarter led us to conclude that we should decline the option to continue participating in the JV.

We began exploration work on our 152,000 hectares of 100% owned license adjacent to and around the former JV license block which consisted of soil and stream sediment sampling programs in the license blocks immediately north of the former JV ground. This work is assessing the north extension of the Gaivotas Shear and coincident airborne geophysical anomalies.

At Tartarugalzinho we continue a systematic southeast to northwest evaluation of geophysical targets and regional stream sediment anomalies. Next quarter we will focus on the middle to northwest portions of the property.

For the remainder of 2007 we will continue to work at Tartarugalzinho and in the Vila Nova area to define drill targets to be tested later in the year.

China

We mapped and sampled a mineralized area immediately north of Jinlonggou ("JLG") previously mined by Qinghai Number One Geological Brigade. The results are pending. The mineralization appears to be hosted in bedding parallel shears (similar to the upper part of JLG mineralization). We prepared drill plans for this zone in anticipation of an early May start. This zone is currently not a part of the JLG resource or reserve.

Drill plans for other short term targets in Qinlongtan ("QLT") were also prepared and reviewed during Q1. These targets include QLT deep (below pit extensions), QLT South showing, and an area adjacent to the western edge of JLG.

"The first quarter of 2007 marks a significant milestone for our company," stated Paul Wright. "We ceased production at our Sao Bento mine, marking the closing of an important chapter in Eldorado's history. At the same time, we began commercial production at Tanjianshan and continued to show excellent production results from Kisladag. Our two low-cost operating mines, the ongoing development work at Efemcukuru and our three-country exploration program will enable us to continue growing the value of our company."

Eldorado is a gold producing and exploration company actively growing businesses in Turkey, China and Brazil. With our international expertise in mining, finance and project development, together with highly skilled and dedicated staff, we believe that Eldorado is well positioned to grow in value as we create and pursue new opportunities.

QuoteIts all in the way you look at things.  I look forward you are looking at the past.

Hehe, I knew I would bring you back to the debate. I'll look at EGO over the next update. Just food for thought, management likes to dilute (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=ego&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr).

Quote from: David Randolph on June 01, 2007, 05:14:08 AM

QuoteIts all in the way you look at things.  I look forward you are looking at the past.

Hehe, I knew I would bring you back to the debate. I'll look at EGO over the next update. Just food for thought, management likes to dilute (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=ego&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr).

Up 8% last 2 days

QuoteUp 8% last 2 days

So?

This is the 6th time EGO goes up 8% or more in two days over the past three months, and it didn't go anywhere:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37552;image)

Good luck :)

There were good news out for PAL:

• North American Palladium Ltd.: Drilling at the Narkaus Property in Finland Confirms High Grade Reef and Contact Style Mineralization (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070601/0260609.html)
Market Wire (Fri, Jun 1)

Nice partnership with Gold Fields (GFI), a $11.4 B market cap company (PAL is just $600 M).

Palladium closed above its short term descending trendline and looks set for a move to new highs:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37553;image)

So, everything is ready for PAL to break its own short term descending trendline (tomorrow at $11.34) and aim for a new high above $12.36.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Nothing new on PAL, let's see if the stock is able to make a bullish breakout today. It just needs to stay the same to close above the short term descending trendline on the chart below.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Analysts at HSBC reiterate their "underweight" rating on North American Palladium Ltd (NAP.FSE). The target price has been raised from $5 to $7.

Quote from: yukiii on June 06, 2007, 01:12:26 AM
Analysts at HSBC reiterate their "underweight" rating on North American Palladium Ltd (NAP.FSE). The target price has been raised from $5 to $7.

In a few months they'll reiterate their "underweight" rating, but raise the target price from $7 to $10 ;D

PAL is still dealing with long term technical issues:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37704;image)

2003 was a great year, the company made $0.58 EPS back then (similar number of shares outstanding). But in 2004, 2005 and 2006 the company returned to losses, so the stock went down. In Q1 2007 PAL had the first profitable quarter in 7 quarters.

Management says good times are here to stay:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37706;image)

I'll keep holding PAL.

After all PAL still reacted negatively to the short term descending trendline and came down to touch support at $10.79 again. It recovered some ground by the close, to finish at $11.04.

I enjoy mining and want to hold at least one mining company and PAL is by far the most attractive in my opinion. I'll keep holding PAL.

It will start going up when it hit 7.48 as shown in the chart .

Did you mean "$10.48", Garoh?

Quote from: berloga on June 07, 2007, 08:36:02 AM
Did you mean "$10.48", Garoh?

Yes berloga 10.48  thanks for the correction  :)

PAL broke down badly yesterday, what a pity. But there's still technical support given by the closing of a gap at $10.23 and the 50 days SMA at $9.93. Declines to the 50 days SMA are normal in most rises, look at the latest PAL's advance phase:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37798;image)

PAL's fundamentals now are much better than what they were in 2003, Q1 2007 revenue was the highest ever, and by a wide margin:

• North American Palladium Reports First Quarter 2007 Revenue Increase and Profitability (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070509/0250883.html)
Marketwire (Wed, May 9)

Gold mining companies trade at stratospheric multiples (9 times revenues, on average). I don't see why PAL should trade at less than 2 times estimated 2007 revenues.

I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL closed the gap completely and in the process it almost touched the 50 days SMA support, as you can see on the chart below. Volume picked up to 550,000 shares. The stock goes higher from here, I'll continue holding it.

Quote from: yukiii on June 10, 2007, 05:46:52 PM
Back to pre-cramer prices picked up some shares on Friday, good entry point.

Yes, good entry point. That Cramer indicator is curious. It's a pity CNBC here in Europe doesn't show Cramer's TV show, instead they show Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien. Well, they're all funny clowns LOL.

PAL is rebounding after reaching the 50 days SMA support level. But it needs to cross over the descending trendline, today at $10.95, to be definitely bullish, not just over the medium term, but also over the short term.

Palladium prices are at $371 an ounce now. I believe they're going higher over the long term, and I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL closed right at the 50 days SMA support level, and held Friday's low of $10.03, closing at $10.06. I'm not sure we're at the bottom of this stock's correction, but I do know that it is the most attractive mining stock I've ever laid my eyes on, and I've seen dozens of them.

I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL is at support if it breaks next support is $9.50

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 10:45:47 PM
PAL is at support if it breaks next support is $9.50

It didn't break. Reacted positively to the 50 days SMA support. I expect PAL to push higher and eventually breakout above $12, since this is probably the most attractive mining stock outthere (ex-copper mining, strong industry consolidation there).

A pullback to the 50 days SMA is absolutely normal and to be expected, as it happens almost always in strong ascending trends. Unfortunately I bought higher, so I don't have the chance of buying at support. But obviously I'll continue holding.

Another nice white candle for PAL, reacting positively to the 50 days SMA. What we really need now is PAL to close above the short term descending trendline, today at $10.76. Palladium prices have been flat lately (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livepalladium.html). Let me check Nickel prices too (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html). Rebounding some after a sharp sell off in June.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Palladium prices have remained more or less the same over the last 20 days or so:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38046;image)

... and PAL is still deciding if it wants to push higher and breakout above the $10.69 short term descending trendline or breakdown below the 50 days SMA support, currently at $10.23.

Longer term I believe the following trend will continue and palladium and PAL will go higher:

«The palladium price continues to display consistent strength and momentum as rising confidence in supply/demand fundamentals is fueled by growing global emission legislation and historically significant divergences among platinum group metal prices.»

The biggest use of palladium is for auto catalysts:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38047;image)

And that's expected to grow:

«By far the largest use of palladium today is for automobile catalytic converters. Based upon some estimates the 450 million automobiles in the world today is projected to more than double in the next 30 years requiring a growing use of palladium. And, while some forecasters suggest palladium recycled from scraped automobiles will become a large factor in the supply/demand price equation for palladium in coming years, other factors will mitigate these projections.

First, as mentioned, the growth in the number of cars in the world is expected to continue unabated with an increasing number of cars each year, each required to meet increasing environmental standards. Second, many of the cars reaching the end of their useful life in developed countries of the world are increasingly finding their way to less developed countries as used cars. Some used cars simply gravitate there; others are even being refurbished and then freighted.

This will delay and may eliminate the recovery of metals in many of these cars. Working against some of these gains will be increasing fuel economy and improved engine and catalytic technology, both of which will reduce the level of PGM consumption in cars.

Diesel engines operate at lower temperatures than gasoline engines and, to date, platinum is better suited as a catalyst in converting CO, NOx and hydrocarbons to harmless emissions at the lower temperatures. However, when it comes to reducing or eliminating DPM, which is essentially carbon, temperatures must be increased in order for the carbon to be oxidized before being exhausted. At the higher temperatures palladium may be important, as it not only reacts well at higher temperatures, but it can tolerate higher temperatures better than platinum. Further, with palladium currently at a steep discount to platinum there is an economic incentive to develop technology using palladium.

In this regard, a large European automobile manufacturer recently mandated a research and development effort to examine and advance palladium-based technology for diesel catalytic converters. The reason is apparent. In Europe, 44 percent of the cars built in 2003 were equipped with diesel engines and recent CAFÉ (fuel economy) standards announced by China, will ultimately result in a similar percentage of cars built by China's surging car industry to be diesel. Thus, a growing concern over insufficient supplies of platinum to meet this growing diesel demand, placing urgency in finding a way to use palladium for this application.

One remaining obstacle to perfecting this palladium technology is the sulfur content of diesel fuel. Sulfur tends to collect on palladium more than on platinum. And at higher temperatures the sulfur tends to generate sulfates that are then exhausted. Sulfur will be sharply reduced in diesel fuel in the U.S. in 2006 enhancing the opportunity for palladium technology for cleaning diesel emissions. Knowing this, Stillwater Mining Company is currently having a palladium catalytic converter and DPM filter fabricated using palladium to test with low sulfur fuel in our mine operations.»

I'll keep holding PAL.

Palladium rose a bit:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38131;image)

But PAL went down 1.15%. I guess it's just short term noise. I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL refuses to close below the 50 days SMA support and decision time is coming, since the short term resistance level is now at $10.56. The stock needs to close above that, with strong volume, to open the way for a new high above $12.

Palladium is up to $376 an ounce in Zurich trading this morning, so everything is set for a nice bullish breakout for PAL. I'll hold whatever happens.

Nice but wrong chart.  ;)

Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on June 20, 2007, 08:35:26 AM
Nice but wrong chart.  ;)

Amarens

Sorry Amarens, I've corrected it.

Palladium closed at a new 30 day high yesterday, at $378 an ounce:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38275;image)

Yet, that wasn't enough to send PAL above its short term resistance trendline. Probably that's because people are focusing on nickel and nickel has been down a lot lately (not unexpectedly - the forward futures contracts had that priced in already):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38279;image)

But PAL is more about palladium than nickel. And I don't think nickel is in a bear market, just having a steep correction as all long term bull markets have.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Was just taking a look at PAL again. If you look at a 5 year chart of PAL.
Starting with 2004 where rev. was higher then they are now. You will see 3 years where PAL
peaked in April - May each year. Something to think about.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=pal;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined (http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=pal;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined)

Nickel rebounded a bit yesterday and palladium remains stable. No news out for PAL. I'll keep holding the stock.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 22, 2007, 07:03:58 AM
Nickel rebounded a bit yesterday and palladium remains stable. No news out for PAL. I'll keep holding the stock.

Broke support $10.21 next support $9.50. Let see where it closes.

On another topic..
Stocks are flirting with all-time highs, and Treasury bond yields are flirting with five-year highs. That means that stocks aren't quite as attractive as they were when prices were lower. And it means that bonds aren't quite as unattractive as they were when yields were lower. It will be a stock-pickers market going forward. Need to find high growth at bargin prices. Take a look at WPCS and LMIA.

QuoteBroke support $10.21 next support $9.50. Let see where it closes.

Closed at $10.17, no big deal.

QuoteIt will be a stock-pickers market going forward. Need to find high growth at bargin prices. Take a look at WPCS and LMIA.

I'll do that, thanks for the suggestions.

Palladium is flirting with its 1 year high:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38365;image)

If Palladium breaks out to a new high, as I think it will, PAL will follow suit, because that will mean higher revenues and profits for the company.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Arghh, PAL is starting to hurt here. Palladium fell a little more than 1% yesterday, but nickel rose a bit. The stock declined 3.64% to $9.80.

$9.80 is a technically important level as one can see at the medium term chart below. It is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Given the fundamentals I'll expect PAL to hold this $9.80 zone and start climbing again, so I'll keep holding PAL for some more time.

Maybe PAL is a good company, but the chart talks to us - sell. :(

I don´t know that to do - fight the trend (bearish) or sell with loss >:D. I expect David to sell PAL tomorrow.

Quote from: babouk on June 26, 2007, 03:29:47 PM
I don´t know that to do - fight the trend (bearish) or sell with loss >:D. I expect David to sell PAL tomorrow.

Its overvalued, don't know what to tell you, Metals are correcting PAL more then other's because of the crammer effect. I would sell and buy AUY when gold hits bottom or buy SWC its at a bottom already or buy more PAL if it goes to $8.00 its all relevant to amount invested and your time period.

I appriciate your opininion, Thank you

PAL broke down yesterday because Palladium and Nickel prices were falling heavily on the day. But prices are still above the Q1 average and I expect PAL's production to keep rising, so fundamentals are still improving. I also see the palladium and nickel corrections as overdone.

There's a very strong fundamental case for Palladium to keep moving higher:

«Spot palladium prices in the first quarter of 2007 averaged US$346 per oz and ended the quarter near the period's high of US$358 per oz, compared to an average of US$290 per ounce in the first quarter of 2006. The palladium price continues to display consistent strength and momentum as rising confidence in supply/demand fundamentals is fueled by growing global emission legislation and historically significant divergences among platinum group metal prices. In the first quarter of 2007, revenue from palladium sales was recorded at US$352 per ounce compared to the corresponding period in 2006 of US$330 per ounce.»

Currently palladium is trading at $368 an ounce:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38464;image)

I'll continue holding PAL.

From what happened in VPHM today I acknowledge that the market knows a lot less than we think when it breaks down technically, because that stock was going down like a stone in a lake, like it was discounting something bad, but no, the market was wrong, good news came out and the stock rallied 7% on the day, coming back above the broken support.

So PAL's technical breakout means zero valid information for me. I continue to believe PAL is the most attractive mining stock trading on the US exchanges (and I've studied quite a lot), so I'll keep holding the stock whatever happens.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 27, 2007, 05:42:36 PM
From what happened in VPHM today I acknowledge that the market knows a lot less than we think when it breaks down technically, because that stock was going down like a stone in a lake, like it was discounting something bad, but no, the market was wrong, good news came out and the stock rallied 7% on the day, coming back above the broken support.

So PAL's technical breakout means zero valid information for me. I continue to believe PAL is the most attractive mining stock trading on the US exchanges (and I've studied quite a lot), so I'll keep holding the stock whatever happens.

Whatever happens oh no he's saying it again.....  ::)
VPHM was manipulated down by shorts and now they had to cover on the news, thats all that was.
David you need to understand each sector and how they work. You kind of think each companies value works the same. You made a mistake with PAL just like ROY you need to learn the mining industry. Drug and Energy companies also behave differently.
You sold SILC you said you would hold for years and sell $50+ what happen nothing changed.
Are you going to change your strategy now going forward like I said you should?
You should have sold CIMT and PAL and bought more SILC. You are not doing what you were trying to preach to me to just hold and you will be rewarded. You can't have it both ways. Are your picks going to be long term and hold GIGM to $50 or will you sell if they have a bad quarter. Everytime someone tells you to sell and take profits you say you will keep holding, but when it goes down after you sell.
What's its going to be?   I think you should forget about this long term thing and just buy and sell like on your stocksonvideo.com. The optimal exit price is very misleading and wrong.

Getting back to PAL there were 2 big reasons for the .10 for the first quarter.
1. Price of nickel was high, and it has come down alot.
2. The ore that was mined was a higher concentration.
so going forward it will be very hard to beat the first quarter.
Nickel Price has dropped to $16 from a high of $24. This will hurt profits
Don't know why David thinks this is the best value in the mining industry unless he thinks it will keep growing earnings at the same pace, which they will not. Anyways .30 for the year tops. I would stay away unless you think palladium will jump up this year for some reason.

Quote from: yukiii on June 27, 2007, 06:12:36 PM

You should have sold CIMT and GSCP and PAL and bought more SILC. You are not doing what you preach.

Yukii - I think you are dead wrong about CIMT and GSCP.   Back to PAL, do you consider PAL a buy here?

Quote from: yukiii on June 27, 2007, 06:12:36 PM
Whatever happens oh no he's saying it again.....  ::)
VPHM was manipulated down by shorts and now they had to cover on the news, thats all that was.
David you need to understand each sector and how they work. You kind of think each companies value works the same. You made a mistake with PAL just like ROY you need to learn the mining industry. Drug and Energy companies also behave differently.
You sold SILC you said you would hold for years and sell $50+ what happen nothing changed.
Are you going to change your strategy now going forward like I said you should?
You should have sold CIMT and PAL and bought more SILC. You are not doing what you were trying to preach to me to just hold and you will be rewarded. You can't have it both ways. Are your picks going to be long term and hold GIGM to $50 or will you sell if they have a bad quarter. Everytime someone tells you to sell and take profits you say you will keep holding, but when it goes down after you sell.
What's its going to be?   I think you should forget about this long term thing and just buy and sell like on your stocksonvideo.com.

I think we should go back to the old strategy.... I think it is better that way, 3SOF portfolio is well diversified anyway. ;)

BTW, GSCP is a good pick, I bought it the same price with 3SOF. ;)

David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Quote from: jdmark23 on June 28, 2007, 06:05:29 PM
David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for your first post :)

I justified why I sold SILC at SILC's thread. In fact I did it twice. Do I think it was a mistake to sell it? Yes I do.

It is another mistake to join my large mistake family.

Anyway, people that followed my recommendation took a 38% profit, it's not my fault that some bought higher and sold at a loss.

Moreover, the Main Portfolio is up 17% in 2007, which annualized gives me about 40%, above what I expect to deliver over the long term.

Interactivity is good, I welcome it, but too much scrutiny is starting to get on my nerves.

Jesus, I'm getting tired (not because of your post, sorry), I guess I need to take some days off.

See you.

I must say, I don't understand the constant criticism by some of David's management. This is his portfolio is it not? Are you obligated to purchase or sell when he does? I for one have made a lot of money by simply having his picks at my disposal and buying and selling when I choose. I just don't understand why some continually harp on him and remain premium members. It doesn't make sense to me. Why not start your own site if you can do better?

I'd also like to say one of the best parts of this site is the integrity that the owners have shown. The fact that David is around everyday to address questions and take the fire and Ramsburg is easily accesible for technical support is one of the best things about this place.

Anyways, I'll step off my soapbox now.

David, you can take 6 days off actually, Friday through next Wednesday which is market holiday  :D

Yes, SILC might be a mistake, but I didn't expect you to be perfect, so don't blame yourself too much on it.

Anyway, I wish you have a truely good rest , that is, don't even spend one minute thinking about the market, you deserve it and you need it.

Take care and see in about a week.  ;D

Quote from: David Randolph on June 28, 2007, 06:24:00 PM

Quote from: jdmark23 on June 28, 2007, 06:05:29 PM
David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for your first post :)

I justified why I sold SILC at SILC's thread. In fact I did it twice. Do I think it was a mistake to sell it? Yes I do.

It is another mistake to join my large mistake family.

Anyway, people that followed my recommendation took a 38% profit, it's not my fault that some bought higher and sold at a loss.

Moreover, the Main Portfolio is up 17% in 2007, which annualized gives me about 40%, above what I expect to deliver over the long term.

Interactivity is good, I welcome it, but too much scrutiny is starting to get on my nerves.

Jesus, I'm getting tired (not because of your post, sorry), I guess I need to take some days off.

See you.

David,

Thanks for the reply and just so you know I really like your site and your interactivity.  Furthermore I very much like the new longer term philosophy you espouse and I guess as much as anything I am not critiquing one particular trade(silc) but rather hoping that you stay strong and steady with your approach.  Enjoy your holiday off.

Jim

Quote from: David Randolph on June 28, 2007, 06:24:00 PM

Quote from: jdmark23 on June 28, 2007, 06:05:29 PM
David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for your first post :)

I justified why I sold SILC at SILC's thread. In fact I did it twice. Do I think it was a mistake to sell it? Yes I do.

It is another mistake to join my large mistake family.

Anyway, people that followed my recommendation took a 38% profit, it's not my fault that some bought higher and sold at a loss.

Moreover, the Main Portfolio is up 17% in 2007, which annualized gives me about 40%, above what I expect to deliver over the long term.

Interactivity is good, I welcome it, but too much scrutiny is starting to get on my nerves.

Jesus, I'm getting tired (not because of your post, sorry), I guess I need to take some days off.

See you.

David we are all humans no one is perfect and we do mistakes everytime ..
Here in the stock market is different because you'er dealing with many types of people such as short-medium-long term investors , Daytraders , swing traders and their experience not the same and most of them don't look at a specific news or a stock's action as you can look at it ...

You'er really a hard working person and this is the best site I've  ever seen it's giving me a great help with my investments even though I have more than  15 years experience in the stock market and especially technical experience but I still can make huge mistakes  :-\

No one is perfect David , we do what we can , SILC is not a mistake as i see , you had many factors that saying sell and you acted accordingly by selling this stock ...

Always don't look behind , this is a stock market not your wife  ;D

I had a bad story with a stock (ADSX) I fell in love with this stock for more than 5 months , bought it at 2.22 3 years ago and held it for more than 5 months because I expected good news to come out anytime and the chart looked nice but when I got bored and thought that I would find better stocks and lost faith in this one my hands got very weak and I sold it at 2.21 . next day the stock double and in one month this stock reached 8.55 that's 400% jump  >:(

But I'm happy because there were people that benefit from this stock at least  :)

but on the other hand I had a good chance for investing in Harlely Davidson company which turned my $2,500 money into $76,000 in 10 years  ;D
and this is the way you'er trying to do , but a few people have patience ...

David take a rest and please come back strong  ;)

  Hats off to David - he's shown good discipline, decisiveness, well taken criticism and honesty. He's not just a good investor, but also a very nice person. Since this site lets us all interact a lot, we spend time here, having a pleasant mentor is extremely important. David really does work for his money and feels a great deal of responsibility.

  Try to find a financial advisor like that anywhere!! Not a chance. Most out there are simply too greedy and think too much of themselves. I think David needs to take at least 4 weeks vacation (most Europeans have at least 5 weeks; US labor law stinks for that matter). We're big boys and girls here, we can cope!  ;)

Thanks for the very nice words realcoolhead, jdmark23, Garoh and berloga. This sure was a warm welcome back :)

Thinking of PAL, we necessarily need to link the investment in the stock to the course of the metal price. I found a very interesting article, which is dated April 2005, which was right on the money and is still valid today:

The Case for Palladium (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/palladium-case.html)

When the article was written, Palladium was at $193. Today it stands at $368, still way below its all time high of roughly $1,050 per ounce.

The way palladium substitutes platinum, and with China's (especially China, but we could include Russia and India here too, for example) increasing demand for cars and heightened worries about CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, demand for palladium can only rise over the next few years. With a higher palladium price, PAL's net profit margin will expand (PAL produces 5% of the world's palladium consumption) and the stock price must rise accordingly.

Palladium has been trading sideways lately, but holding up better than other metals, so I expect the price to inevitably breakout on the upside sooner rather than later:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38643;image)

I'll continue holding PAL, despite the short term technical weakness. 

Nice bounce from PAL, with palladium prices staying basically the same, around the $365 an ounce level.

I admit that I should learn more about valuing mining companies (well, learn more in general), but there are specific industries where specific knowledge applies, not just the more common fundamental analysis theory.

Why? Well, because a mining company isn't just revenues and profits and their trends, it is also about reserves, grades, metal prices and so on.

So I'm going to order the following book, study it and then share the methods with you:

Valuing Mining Companies: A Guide to the Assessment and Evaluation of Assets, Performance, and Prospects (http://www.amazon.com/Valuing-Mining-Companies-Assessment-Performance/dp/0849317657/ref=sr_1_1/105-4429411-1539609?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1183671116&sr=8-1)

In the meantime I'll keep holding PAL, which, from my common sense fundamental analysis, is one of the most attractive mining companies I've seen.

From a technical standpoint, PAL is at a crucial point, banging on the $9.80 resistance level (prior support) and the short term descending trendline, tomorrow at $9.80 too.

In fundamental terms, I've held it so far, and I've been losing more than 20% on this stock, so I'm not even close to being prepared to sell it for a loss. I'm confident that the reasons for the palladium bull market are strong enough to make the metal price triple or more and PAL should benefit immensely from that development.

I'll keep on holding PAL.

PAL started the day very well, but faced with selling pressure at $10 couldn't hold the line, closing down 1.64% on the day. It was a bearish reaction to the descending trendline.

But I remain confident in Palladium's bull market, which should resume its uptrend shortly, so I'll keep holding PAL, the only mining company in the Main Portfolio.

Nothing new on PAL as the stock keeps struggling to get close above the descending trendline, which for today will be standing at $9.8 (the same level as the horizontal resistance).

I'll continue holding PAL.

Palladium isn't moving much lately:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38849;image)

But I'm confident that after the current consolidation phase, the long term bull trend will continue, essentially because of two factors:

1) More cars in the world means more autocatalysts which use palladium.

2) Platinum is very expensive relative to palladium now. Palladium's demand should increase as a substitute to platinum.

I'll keep on holding PAL.

Good news out for PAL from a company specific standpoint, perhaps what was lacking to move it higher:

• Infill Drilling at NAP's Ahmavaara Deposit at Suhanko Finland Indicates Good Continuity of Widths and Grades (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070712/0277216.html)
Marketwire (Thu 8:46am)

It would be nice to see it closing back above $9.8.

Quote from: David Randolph on July 12, 2007, 09:09:40 AM
Good news out for PAL from a company specific standpoint, perhaps what was lacking to move it higher:

• Infill Drilling at NAP's Ahmavaara Deposit at Suhanko Finland Indicates Good Continuity of Widths and Grades (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070712/0277216.html)
Marketwire (Thu 8:46am)

It would be nice to see it closing back above $9.8.

david Probably above 10 today  ;)

Quote from: Garoh on July 12, 2007, 09:21:23 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on July 12, 2007, 09:09:40 AM
Good news out for PAL from a company specific standpoint, perhaps what was lacking to move it higher:

• Infill Drilling at NAP's Ahmavaara Deposit at Suhanko Finland Indicates Good Continuity of Widths and Grades (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070712/0277216.html)
Marketwire (Thu 8:46am)

It would be nice to see it closing back above $9.8.

david Probably above 10 today  ;)

Unfortunately no Garoh, closed at $9.68. It seems the chart was prevalent to the good news, but as we've seen in several other occasions, sometimes stocks take time to digest new fundamental information, while they almost always react to key technical points over the short term.

Technically PAL is still fighting with its short term descending trendline. Fundamentally, we've had that good news from a specific company standpoint and it seems Palladium is taking small steps to the North again:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38909;image)

I'll keep on holding PAL.

David,

would you take a look at MTL? It is a mining and steel company out of Russia. It's profits seem to have been growing well. Not too much debt not to be able to pay it off, decent balance sheet. The PE ratio is also less than the industry (8.88 vs 14.5). My friend recommended back in January of this year, when he bought at $25. It trades at $47 now. But can go higher.

Thanks!

Quote from: berloga on July 13, 2007, 09:58:19 AM
David,

would you take a look at MTL? It is a mining and steel company out of Russia. It's profits seem to have been growing well. Not too much debt not to be able to pay it off, decent balance sheet. The PE ratio is also less than the industry (8.88 vs 14.5). My friend recommended back in January of this year, when he bought at $25. It trades at $47 now. But can go higher.

Thanks!

Ok, I'll put it here in my notebook to make an analysis next week.

As for PAL, nothing new from a technical or fundamental standpoint. I'll continue holding PAL.

Palladium has been trading in a very narrow range lately ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39012;image)

... but, because of the factors underpinning its long term bull market which I've exposed in this thread, I think it will ultimately make a bullish breakout to new highs above $385 and take PAL with it.

I'll keep on holding PAL.

PAL didn't do much yesterday, as it rose 0.86%. Palladium spot was down about 0.1% on the session. No news out. I'll keep holding PAL.

14:05 ET N Amer Palladium reports second quarter 2007 production results Co production in Q2 2007 rose by 16% to 66,651 ounces compared to 57,326 ounces in the comparable period in 2006. The average palladium head grade for the quarter was 2.26 g/t compared to 2.22 g/t in Q2 2006. Production for all by-product metals increased. 1,244,067 tonnes of ore were processed during the quarter at a Pd recovery rate of 73.5% compared to 1,101,543 tonnes of ore in Q2 2006 at a Pd recovery rate of 73.1%. Mill availability for the quarter improved to approximately 90% versus 83% last year. Spot palladium prices in Q2 2007 averaged US $368 per oz compared to US $347 per oz in Q2 2006.

We had 2nd quarter production numbers out of PAL yesterday:

• North American Palladium Reports Second Quarter 2007 Production Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070718/0279775.html)
Marketwire (Wed 2:03pm)

Palladium production rose 16% from the year ago level but fell 15.4% from the 1st quarter 2007 level.

I have to admit that I'm not knowledgeable enough to value mining stocks properly, as I'm still studying the subject. So PAL will be the last mining stock I buy for some time, until I know more about the sector.

So, what to do about PAL now?

I'll use the market's valuation to get a feel to where PAL should stand. In Q2 2006 PAL was trading around $8, and it was losing money back then. Now palladium production rose 16% and  the palladium price rose 6%, which means a 23% cumulative effect on revenue. Also, the by-products production and prices also rose. So I would say PAL is worth at least 30% more than what it was worth a year ago, which means a price per share of roughly $10.4.

The initial market reaction was positive, but still not enough to cross over the all important $10 resistance level. Let's see if PAL is able to push above that level today.

Anyway, I see fundamentals as supportive, that is, the stock shouldn't go down, and all the upside from the continuation of the bull market in palladium still exists.

So I opt to keep holding PAL.

Very nice bullish breakout from PAL today. I believe the 6-K form the company filed with the SEC today gave some help, the following table is much more clearer than yesterday's press release, at least to me:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39117;image)

So, we had 66,651 oz of palladium at an average price of $368 per oz, and that means $24.53 M in revenue. 5,904 oz of platinum at about $1,275 per oz gives me $7.53 M in revenue. 4,739 oz of gold at about $670 means $3.18 M. 1,310,484 lbs of copper at $3.25 represents $4.3 M. And 716,096 lbs of Nickel at about $21 means around $15 M in revenues.

Summing it all I get $24.53 M + $7.53 M + $3.18 M + $4.3 M + $15 M = $54.54 M in revenues over Q2 2007. Q2 2006 revenue was $31 M.

This means revenue growth from the year ago period was about 76%, much higher than what I thought yesterday (30%), because I wasn't taking into account the by-products to their full extent. It is also very close to what I had in mind when I derived my valuation model, where I have a revenue CAGR of 75% (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=PAL&portfolio=main).

I would say PAL is on track with my long term estimates, even without much help from the price of palladium, which I believe is about to explode on the upside. In fact, it had quite a strong day today:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39119;image)

I'll continue holding PAL.

We've had another good day in the palladium market and I feel the metal is on the verge of a bullish breakout to new 5 year highs:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39168;image)

I expect this development to put PAL on fire, now that it closed above the 50 days SMA.

PAL absolutely needs to hold the $10 line now, which was a prior short term resistance, so now it should act as a strong support. I think this is going to be the case, but I'll hold whatever happens, due to my long term believe in the Palladium metal bull market.

Good action just as expected to touch 9.86 and rebound ...

It should  only go up from here if everything is good

Quote from: Garoh on July 24, 2007, 12:13:24 PM
Good action just as expected to touch 9.86 and rebound ...

It should  only go up from here if everything is good

Thanks for your view and chart Garoh :)

Unfortunately PAL closed back below $10. Volume was low. It is still respecting a short term ascending trendline, we'll see if that support is able to sustain the stock and the push it higher.

The Palladium market went down almost 2% to $364 as global commodities fell. I think this is just a temporary thing, after the shake up the bull market will probably continue.

I'll continue holding PAL.

QuoteIt is still respecting a short term ascending trendline, we'll see if that support is able to sustain the stock and the push it higher.

No, PAL broke down below it like it didn't exist (perhaps it only existed in my chart and mind). Now there's the June low of $9 and the 200 days SMA at $8.75.

PAL is now close to the price it was a year ago, when the company was in much worse financial shape and palladium prices were lower. It doesn't make any sense from a fundamental standpoint.

PAL is one of the few mining companies outthere with a valuation that makes sense to me (besides copper mining - there's a lesson to learn from PCU, which is - it may take some time, but value always goes up).

I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL touched its long term support given by the 200 days SMA and an horizontal support. I believe the buyers did well in buying, the sellers did bad in selling. Only time will tell, but fundamentally I see a lot more value in this company.

I remain a bull in the palladium market, the 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians will want cars, and those cars need palladium.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Well, PAL rose a bit on Friday's session, while the general market had another strong sell off, we have to give the stock some credit for that. I would like to have it closing above $9, but it wasn't possible. Let's see what the next few days bring, I'll continue holding PAL.

Quote from: David Randolph on July 29, 2007, 10:06:07 AM
Well, PAL rose a bit on Friday's session, while the general market had another strong sell off, we have to give the stock some credit for that. I would like to have it closing above $9, but it wasn't possible. Let's see what the next few days bring, I'll continue holding PAL.

Well, PAL was able to close back above $9, which is a technical development that I welcome, reacting positively to the 200 days SMA support. Palladium also rose $4 yesterday to $364, so that probably helped a bit too.

I'll continue holding PAL.

Unfortunately PAL couldn't hold the line above $9. But I'll remain focused on the following:

- Most of the 2.5 billion Indians and Chinese don't have a car, but they're starting to have, and cars are the main source of demand for palladium. Palladium will also rise as a substitute to platinum, which is way too expensive now.

- PAL produces 5% of the world's annual consumption of palladium.

I'll patiently keep holding PAL as I wait for palladium to breakout to new highs above $400 (it closed at $363 today, down 1$).

PAL isn't acting nice ... but I expect yesterday's volume above average in PAL shares and the general market late day surge to be the beginning of something positive.

I'll keep holding PAL, despite losing 26% on it now.

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. has developed a new catalyst for gasoline-powered cars that utilizes only half the precious metal components versus conventional catalyst currently available. This new catalyst will be introduced in future products from fiscal 2008.

This technology, developed as part of the Renault-Nissan Alliance, results in no changes in the performance of the catalyst despite using significantly less precious metal.

Exhaust-cleaning automotive catalysts comprise a mix of platinum (Pt), rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd). Within the catalyst, the chemical reaction between the precious metals and exhaust gases contributes to the chemical reaction of nitrogen oxide (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC) - into non-toxic compounds such as nitrogen (N2), water (H20), and carbon dioxide (CO2).

In conventional catalysts, the high temperatures within the catalyst causes the precious metals to cluster-up, reducing the exposed metal surface area, leading to less-effective cleaning of the gases. To compensate this problem, existing converters contain a higher amount of precious metals in order to maintain an efficient level of cleaning.

Employing advanced nano-technology, Nissan has succeeded in keeping the fine metal particles separated to prevent them from clustering under high temperature conditions. This pioneering technology enables the catalyst to maintain performance while utilizing only half the component of precious metals needed.

Under the Nissan Green Program 2010, Nissan will offer advanced technology and products to help make real-world reductions in CO2 emissions, clean emissions to preserve the air, water, and soil, and recycle resources. The new catalyst results in clean exhaust emissions and reduces the consumption of precious metals, hence benefiting the environment and conservation of the Earth’s natural resources.

Quote from: babouk on August 02, 2007, 04:38:14 PM
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. has developed a new catalyst for gasoline-powered cars that utilizes only half the precious metal components versus conventional catalyst currently available. This new catalyst will be introduced in future products from fiscal 2008.

This technology, developed as part of the Renault-Nissan Alliance, results in no changes in the performance of the catalyst despite using significantly less precious metal.

Exhaust-cleaning automotive catalysts comprise a mix of platinum (Pt), rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd). Within the catalyst, the chemical reaction between the precious metals and exhaust gases contributes to the chemical reaction of nitrogen oxide (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC) - into non-toxic compounds such as nitrogen (N2), water (H20), and carbon dioxide (CO2).

In conventional catalysts, the high temperatures within the catalyst causes the precious metals to cluster-up, reducing the exposed metal surface area, leading to less-effective cleaning of the gases. To compensate this problem, existing converters contain a higher amount of precious metals in order to maintain an efficient level of cleaning.

Employing advanced nano-technology, Nissan has succeeded in keeping the fine metal particles separated to prevent them from clustering under high temperature conditions. This pioneering technology enables the catalyst to maintain performance while utilizing only half the component of precious metals needed.

Under the Nissan Green Program 2010, Nissan will offer advanced technology and products to help make real-world reductions in CO2 emissions, clean emissions to preserve the air, water, and soil, and recycle resources. The new catalyst results in clean exhaust emissions and reduces the consumption of precious metals, hence benefiting the environment and conservation of the Earth's natural resources.

Thanks babouk, that's bad news for palladium and PAL. Nickel has been going down a lot too, more than I expected, because the warehouse levels have been rising strongly: Nickel Historical Charts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html).

I should have taken the loss when we've had that rally after the 2nd quarter production numbers, but I didn't, I was hopeful that the rally would last longer ...

The chart is also bearish now and my hands aren't as strong as I would like them to be, because I feel I don't know enough about valuing mining companies (I already have that book, but still didn't read much).

This is going to hurt, but here it goes: I'll sell PAL today, taking a 27% loss.

I already have four stocks where I'm losing about 20% and I dislike the situation, because if I'm losing, probably that's because I was wrong, and if I was wrong, I should correct the mistake by taking the loss before it gets worse.

PAL is the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio and it is also the stock where I'm less confident.

The trading plan for PAL is: SELL.

Press Release Source: North American Palladium Ltd.


North American Palladium Reports Second Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Wednesday August 8, 9:44 am ET


This news release contains forward-looking statements. Reference should be made to the cautionary statement on forward-looking information at the end of this news release


TORONTO, ONTARIO--(MARKET WIRE)--Aug 8, 2007 -- North American Palladium Ltd. ("NAP") (Toronto:PDL.TO - News)(AMEX:PAL - News) -
ADVERTISEMENT






Highlights for the Quarter

- Revenue of $44.5 million in Q2 2007, up from $35.5 million in Q2 2006. For the first half of 2007, revenue increased by 69% to $112.9 million, compared to $67.0 million for the comparable period in 2006.

- Operating cash flow(1) in Q2 2007 improved significantly to $12.9 million compared to cash used in operations of $1.0 million last year. For the six months ended June 30, 2007, operating cash flow was $35.9 million, compared cash usage of $1.2 million in 2006.

- By-product revenue in the first half was $60.0 million (up 70% over last year) and includes a 156% increase in nickel revenue.

- Net loss for the quarter of $9.1 million or $0.17 per share, which includes a $8.9 million mark to market on foreign exchange and commodity prices. This compares to a net loss in Q2 2006 of $11.3 million or $0.22 per share. For the first half, the net loss decreased to $3.6 million ($0.07 per share) compared to a net loss of $15.5 million ($0.30 per share) in 2006.

- Palladium cash costs per ounce(1) were US$242 per oz in Q2 2007 compared to US $219 per oz in Q2 2006, an increase attributable to the strengthening Canadian dollar and higher maintenance costs.

Results of Operations

North American Palladium announced today revenue of $44.5 million in the second quarter of 2007, up $9.0 million or 25% compared to revenue of $35.5 million reported in the second quarter of 2006. Operating cash flow (1) was $12.9 million in the three months ended March 31, 2007, compared to cash used in operations of $1.0 million in 2006, and was $35.9 million for the first six months of 2007, an improvement of $37.1 million from the prior year when cash used in operations was $1.2 million.

As previously reported, Palladium production for the second quarter of 2007 was 66,651 ounces of palladium at an average palladium head grade of 2.26 grams per tonne an increase 9,326 ounces or 16% compared to last year's second quarter production of 57,326 ounces at a head grade of 2.22 grams per tonne (see July 18, 2007 press release for Q2 production results).

Palladium revenue was $21.9 million or 49% of total revenue, compared to $14.9 million or 42% in 2006, an increase of $7.0 million or 47% year over year. For the three months ended June 30, 2007, palladium revenue was recorded at US$365 per ounce, an increase of 18% compared to US$310 in the corresponding period in 2006.

By product metal revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2007 increased by 70% to $60.0 million, up from $35.3 million in 2006. In the second quarter of 2007, by product metal sales generated $22.6 million of revenue, an increase of $2.0 million or 10% compared to by product revenue of $20.6 million in the second quarter of 2006. In particular, nickel sales in the second quarter of 2007 benefited from a 68% year over year price increase (US$16.24 per lb versus US$9.64 per lb in 2006).

Jim Excell, President and Chief Executive Officer of North American Palladium had the following comments on the financial results: "I am pleased to see continued strengthening in our operations and expect to see continued improvements this year. With a new management team in place, consistency in operations and a good pipeline of projects, I believe that North America Palladium is well positioned to benefit and expand its base of existing cash generating properties."

The Company recognizes the sale of metal concentrate as revenue when concentrate is delivered to a third party smelter for treatment. However, final pricing is not determined until the refined metal is sold, which can be up to six months later. Final pricing adjustments result in additional revenue in a rising commodity price environment and reductions to revenue in a declining price environment. Similarly, a strengthening Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar will result reduced revenue and vice versa. In Q2 2007, revenue was reduced by negative mark to market adjustments of $8.9 million ($2.4 million due to negative price adjustments and $6.5 million due to a negative foreign exchange adjustment) compared with a negative adjustment in the second quarter of 2006 of $1.2 million ($0.6 million positive price adjustment and $1.8 million negative foreign exchange adjustment).

Largely due to these mark to market adjustments, the Company recognized a loss from mining operations of $9.2 million in the second quarter of 2007 compared to a loss of $9.1 million in the same period last year. In addition to the $8.9 million negative revenue adjustments, the mine incurred unplanned maintenance costs as a result of several lightning strikes during the quarter that caused unscheduled downtime to the primary crusher and #1 ball mill and reduced throughput (steps have since been taken to mitigate future disruptions in the electrical supply). Increased production volumes compared to 2006 also resulted in increased amortization of $4.4 million. For the three months ended June 30, 2007, the Company reported a net loss of $9.1 million or $0.17 per share compared to a net loss of $11.3 million or $0.22 per share for the three months ended June 30, 2006. For the six months ended June 30, 2007 the net loss of $3.6 million was a significant improvement compared to the loss of $15.5 million for the same period in 2006.

Review of Operations and Projects

The Company remains on course to meeting its year end production target of approximately 290,000 ounces. Its intensive core drilling exploration program will continue through 2007, with approximately $15.0 million being allocated to exploration activities.

The Company continued its exploration of the Offset High Grade Zone ("OHGZ"), located approximately 250 metres to the southeast of the current underground mine at the Lac des Iles mine. Drilling from the exploration drift commenced in the second quarter of 2007. The OHGZ remains open along strike and at depth. Early in the third quarter of 2007, the Company engaged two consulting firms to conduct a Preliminary Economic Assessment of three potential exploitation/operating scenarios for the OHGZ. Management is also considering the viability of a Phase V pushback of the pit, with a view to extending its mine life. The expanded open pit could provide supplemental mill feed for a possible OHGZ underground mine and allow the mine to operate at current production levels for additional years beyond the current planned mine life. At this time, no mineral reserve estimates have been made for the OHGZ and, consequently, no decision been made to extend the current underground mine to the OHGZ and/or build a shaft to access the OHGZ (see the press release dated April 2, 2007 for information about the OHGZ mineral resource estimate).

In addition to the operations and exploration activities around the Lac des Iles mine site, the Company continues to pursue other PGM and nickel copper opportunities, including its earn in under option and joint venture agreement with CVRD Inco at the Shebandowan Project. Preparation of a 43 101 technical report is underway, which will disclose the results of a mineral resource estimate by an independent Qualified Person. The Company is assessing the capital expenditure requirements to refurbish its old mill at Lac des Iles to process ore from Shebandowan, which could add up to 2,500 tpd to the milling capacity at the Lac des Iles site. The Company is also active satisfying the conditions of its 60% earn in right at the Arctic Platinum Project ("APP") in Finland (subject to a 10% back in right in favour of Gold Fields which, if exercised, would decrease the Company's interest to 49.9%). As at June 30, 2007, the Company has incurred $8.5 million in expenditures on the APP. The results of approximately 12,000 metres of a Phase II drilling program will be released in the third quarter of 2007, following receipt of assay results and completion of the Company's quality assurance/quality control procedures. The results of the 2007 in fill drilling program will be incorporated into an updated mineral resource estimate. The Company will also disclose the results of a re scoping study following completion of its due diligence review.

Further information about the second quarter results are available in the Company's financial statements and MD&A, which will be filed on its website, with Canadian provincial securities authorities (www.sedar.com) and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov).

Conference Call

The Company will host its second quarter conference call at 8:30 a.m. EST on Thursday, August 9, 2007. The toll free conference call dial in number is 1-866-249-5221 and the local and overseas dial in number is 416-644-3430. The conference call will be simultaneously webcast and archived at www.napalladium.com in the Investor Centre under Conference Calls. A replay of the conference call will be available until August 30, 2007- toll free at 1-877-289-8525, locally and overseas at 416-640-1917, access code 21199657#.

(1)Non GAAP Measures

Cash cost per ounce and operating cash flow are not recognized measures under Canadian GAAP. Such non GAAP financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by Canadian GAAP and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Management uses these measures internally. The use of these measures enables management to better assess performance trends. Management understands that a number of investors and others who follow the Company's performance assess performance in this way. Management believes that these measures better reflect the Company's performance for the current period and are a better indication of its expected performance in future periods. This data is intended to provide additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. The following table reconciles these non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable Canadian GAAP measure:



(a) Reconciliation of Cash Cost per Ounce to Financial Statements

Three Months Ended June 30
(thousands of dollars except per ounce amounts)          2007        2006
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Production costs including overhead                $   32,438  $   28,289
Smelter treatment, refining and freight costs           5,733       4,237
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       38,171      32,526
Less: by product metal revenue                        (22,638)    (20,578)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       15,533      11,948
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Divided by ounces of palladium                         60,435      48,977
Cash cost per ounce (C$)                                  257         244
C$ exchange rate                                       1.0631      1.1151
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash cost per ounce (US$)                                 242         219
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

(b) Reconciliation of Cash Flow from Operations, Prior to Changes in
Non Cash Working Capital (Operating Cash Flow) to Financial Statements(i)


                          2007           2006           2007          2006
                   Three months ended June 30     Six months ended June 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cash Flow   $ 12,865      $    (965)     $  35,902    $   (1,225)
Changes in
Non-cash
Working Capital        (9,486)       (16,159)       (30,390)      (26,343)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Provided by
Operating Activities $  3,379      $ (17,124)     $   5,512    $  (27,568)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
(i) Certain prior period amounts have been reclassified to conform to the
   classification adopted in the current period.
Forward Looking Statements

Certain statements included in this news release are forward looking statements within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation including the Securities Act (Ontario), relating to the objectives, plans, strategies and results of operation of the Company including words to the effect that the Company or management expects a stated condition or result to occur. When used herein, words such as "expect", "continues", "pursue", "will" and other similar expressions as they related to the Company or its management, are intended to identify forward looking statements. In particular, statements relating to estimated future metal prices and future ore and metal production are forward looking statements. In making the forward looking statements in this news release, the Company has applied several material assumptions, including but not limited to, the assumption that (1) market fundamentals will result in increased palladium demand and prices and sustained by product metal demand and prices, (2) the integrated operation of the underground mine and the open pit mine remain viable operationally and economically, (3) financing is available on reasonable terms, (4) expectations for blended mill feed grade and mill performance will proceed as expected, (5) new mine plan scenarios will be viable operationally and economically, and (6) plans for improved mill production, for sustainable recoveries from the Lac des Iles mine, for further exploration at the Lac des Iles mine and surrounding region, and for exploration in Finland will proceed as expected. Any forward looking statements in this news release involve inherent risks and uncertainties and are subject to factors, many of which are beyond our control, which may cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements include among others (1) metal price volatility, (2) economic and political events affecting metal supply and demand, (3) fluctuations in ore grade or ore tonnes milled, (4) geological, technical, mining or processing problems, (5) future metal production, and (6) changes in the life of mine plan. For a more comprehensive review of risk factors, please refer to the "Risks and Uncertainties" section of the Company's most recent interim Management Discussion and Analysis and most recent Annual Report under "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Results"

and Annual Information Form under "Risk Factors" on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities. The Company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward looking statements.

North American Palladium is Canada's foremost primary producer of palladium. Its Lac des Iles mine in northwestern Ontario is among the largest open pit, bulk mineable palladium operations in the world. The Company's core palladium business is strengthened by a significant contribution from nickel, platinum, gold and copper by product metals. Committed to sustainable mining practices and continuous improvement, North American Palladium pursues a growth strategy that involves the acquisition and development of PGM/nickel properties that present the highest level of value creation.



                         North American Palladium Ltd.
                          Consolidated Balance Sheets
                   (expressed in thousands of Canadian dollars)

                                                   June 30     December 31
                                                      2007            2006
                                                ----------     -----------
                                                (unaudited)
                     Assets
                     ------
Current Assets
Cash                                       $        4,505  $        3,153
Concentrate awaiting settlement, net               98,814          82,050
Taxes recoverable                                     252             145
Inventories                                        14,606          14,164
Current portion of crushed and broken ore
  stockpiles                                         8,862           7,134
Other assets                                        1,436           2,602
                                           ---------------  --------------
                                                   128,475         109,248

Mining interests, net                              130,757         146,617
Mine restoration deposit                             8,151           8,041
Crushed and broken ore stockpiles                      383             289
Deferred financing costs                                 -             962
                                           ---------------  --------------
                                            $      267,766  $      265,157
                                           ---------------  --------------
     Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
     ------------------------------------
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities   $       17,306  $       21,526
Advance purchase facility                           8,868
Future mining tax liability                           186             149
Current portion of obligations under
  capital leases                                     1,835           2,104
Current portion of convertible notes
  payable                                           29,324          22,148
Current portion of long term debt                   6,218           6,662
Kaiser Francis credit facility                          -           5,827
                                           ---------------  --------------
                                                    63,737          58,416

Mine restoration obligation                          8,707           8,211
Obligations under capital leases                     2,851           4,111
Convertible notes payable                            9,259          23,062
Long term debt                                       7,216          10,992
Future mining tax liability                          1,439             381
                                           ---------------  --------------
                                                    93,209         105,173
          Shareholders' Equity
          --------------------

Common share capital and common share
  purchase warrants                                357,625         339,743
Equity component of convertible notes
  payable, net of issue costs                       10,138          12,336
Contributed surplus                                 3,717           1,269
Deficit                                          (196,923)       (193,364)
                                           ---------------  --------------
Total shareholders' equity                         174,557         159,984
                                           ---------------  --------------
                                           $       267,766  $      265,157
                                           ---------------  --------------


                        North American Palladium Ltd.
               Consolidated Statements of Operations and Deficit

                 (expressed in thousands of Canadian dollars,
                    except share and per share amounts)
                                  (unaudited)

                     Three months ended June 30   Six months ended June 30
                            2007           2006         2007          2006
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Revenue from metal
sales - before
pricing
adjustments         $    53,451    $    36,698  $   113,755   $    61,054
Pricing adjustments-
  commodities             (2,421)           566        6,720         7,518
Pricing adjustments-
  foreign exchange        (6,535)        (1,745)      (7,541)       (1,561)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Revenue from metal
sales                    44,495         35,519      112,934        67,011
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Operating expenses
Production costs,
  excluding
  amortization
  and asset
  retirement costs        32,438         28,289       65,690        52,600
Smelter treatment,
  refining and
  freight costs            5,733          4,237       10,995         6,951
Amortization             11,923          7,538       23,831        11,135
Administrative            2,321          1,584        4,017         3,763
Exploration expense         798          2,659        4,026         4,683
Loss on disposal of
  equipment                    -            194            -           194
Asset retirement
  costs                      498            132          677           255
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Total operating
  expenses                53,711         44,633      109,236        79,581
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------

Income/(loss) from
mining operations        (9,216)        (9,114)       3,698       (12,570)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Other expenses
(income)
Interest on
  long term debt,
  capital leases and
  convertible notes
  payable                  1,162          1,423        2,704         2,118
Foreign exchange loss
  (gain)                  (4,355)          (955)      (4,981)         (674)
Interest income            (187)          (380)        (270)         (463)
Accretion expense
  relating to
  convertible
  notes payable            3,250          2,460        7,512         2,460
Interest expense            216              -          756             -
Deferred financing
  costs                      219            144          441           659
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Total other expenses         305          2,692        6,162         4,100
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------

Loss before income
taxes                    (9,521)       (11,806)      (2,464)      (16,670)
Income tax expense
(recovery)                 (455)          (481)       1,095        (1,204)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Loss for the period       (9,066)       (11,325)      (3,559)      (15,466)

Deficit, beginning of
period                 (187,857)      (163,396)    (193,364)     (159,255)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Deficit, end of
Period              $  (196,923)   $  (174,721) $  (196,923)  $  (174,721)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Loss per share
Basic               $     (0.17)   $     (0.22) $     (0.07)  $     (0.30)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Diluted             $     (0.17)   $     (0.22) $     (0.07)  $     (0.30)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Weighted average
number of shares
outstanding

Basic                54,410,210     52,371,162   53,749,822    52,293,401
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Diluted              54,410,210     52,371,162   53,749,822    52,293,401
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------


                       North American Palladium Ltd.
                 Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
             (expressed in thousands of Canadian dollars)
                              (unaudited)

                     Three months ended June 30   Six months ended June 30
                            2007           2006         2007          2006
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------

Cash provided by
(used in)
Operations
Loss for the period $     (9,066)   $   (11,325) $    (3,559)  $   (15,466)
Operating items not
involving cash
Accretion expense
  relating to
  convertible
  notes payable            3,250          2,460        7,512         2,460
Amortization             11,923          7,538       23,831        11,135
Amortization of
  deferred financing
  costs                      219            144          441           155
Interest settled on
  convertible notes        1,007            395        1,581           395
Accrued interest on
  mine restoration
  deposit                   (110)           (84)        (110)          (84)
Unrealized foreign
  exchange (gain)
  loss                     3,478           (582)       3,409          (526)
Asset retirement
  costs                      498            132          677           255
Future income tax
  expense (recovery)       1,050           (295)       1,095        (1,130)
Write off of
  deferred financing
  costs                        -              -            -           504
Stock based
  compensation and
  employee benefits          616            458        1,025           883
Loss on disposal of
  equipment                    -            194            -           194
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
                          12,865           (965)      35,902        (1,225)

Changes in
non cash working
capital                  (9,486)       (16,159)     (30,390)      (26,343)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
                           3,379        (17,124)       5,512       (27,568)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Financing Activities
Advances under
  purchase facility        4,453              -        8,868             -
Issuance of common
  shares                       -          3,446        5,703         3,921
Repayment of
  long term debt          (1,562)        (1,625)      (9,042)       (3,295)
Repayment of
  obligations under
  capital leases            (539)          (597)      (1,082)       (1,175)
Mine restoration
  deposit                      -           (300)           -          (600)
Issuance of
  convertible notes            -              -            -        41,037
Increase in long term
  debt and credit
  facility                     -              -            -         2,311
Deferred financing
costs                         -           (227)           -        (2,364)
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
                           2,352            697        4,447        39,835
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------

Investing Activities

Additions to mining
interests                (4,148)        (3,649)      (8,607)      (11,084)

Increase(decrease) in cash and
cash equivalents          1,583        (20,076)       1,352         1,183
Cash and cash
equivalents,
beginning of period       2,922         36,290        3,153        15,031
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------
Cash and cash
equivalents, end of
period             $      4,505    $    16,214  $     4,505   $    16,214
                      ----------     ----------   ----------    ----------



Contact:
     Contacts:
     North American Palladium Ltd.
     Jim Excell
     President & CEO
     (416) 360-7971 ext.223
     
     North American Palladium Ltd.
     Fraser Sinclair
     Vice President, Finance & CFO
     (416) 360-7971 ext.222
     Website: http://www.napalladium.com
     


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: North American Palladium Ltd.

I think the numbers are good. Maybe the market likes them too.

ENTERS UNDERWRITING AGREEMENT: North American Palladium Ltd. (PAL) announced
that it has entered into an underwriting agreement in connection with its previously announced
public unit offering in Canada and the United States. The offering will be made under a prospectus
supplement to North American Palladium's shelf prospectus dated November 16, 2007. The
underwriters have agreed to purchase 14 million units at a price of US$4.00 per unit (C$4.04
per unit). Each unit consists of one common share and one half of a common share purchase
warrant of North American Palladium. Each whole warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one
common share at a price of US$5.05 per share at any time on or prior to two years from the date
of the closing of this offering, expected to occur on December 13, 2007. The units will mandatorily
separate after the closing of this offering into common shares and warrants.

QuoteThis is going to hurt, but here it goes: I'll sell PAL today, taking a 27% loss.

I already have four stocks where I'm losing about 20% and I dislike the situation, because if I'm losing, probably that's because I was wrong, and if I was wrong, I should correct the mistake by taking the loss before it gets worse.

Sometimes it's better to just take the loss, even if it is already a 27% loss, and move on. PAL is an example of this. I sold at $8.58 and the stock closed yesterday at $3.7 (Jesus).

The reason for the fall can be attributed to the following private placement:

• North American Palladium Announces Marketed Unit Offering (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071127/0333048.html)
Marketwire (Tue, Nov 27)

The news was announced in November 27th, and PAL closed at $6.02 on the previous day. It fell an additional 43.5% after the news, because, as I see it, PAL had to print more new shares in order to receive an amount closer to what it intended to receive. They wished $100 M and ended up getting just $75 M:

• North American Palladium Announces Closing of US$75 Million Offering (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071213/0339702.html)
Marketwire (Thu, Dec 13)

Other problems are that revenues are shrinking and the company is losing money now (it lost $14 M in Q3 2007, on $36 M revenue).

Anyway, I see that palladium prices are recovering (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livepalladium.html). But nickel continues to be depressed (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html).

I think PAL made a big mistake making this private placement, ending six years of close to zero dilution (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=pal&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann).

Probably we're closer to a bounce (since the stock is so oversold and far away from its moving averages), but I wouldn't consider bottom fishing a company which just started diluting shareholders value. Maybe we'll go down to $1, who knows?

Hi David
This stock is definately a candidate for bottom bounce. It gave buy signal yesterday,,bottom bounce plays are short term plays using 20 DMA for sell target because they usually bounce back down when getting close to 20 DMA. Buy signal is when RSI 5 rise above 30 line heading out of oversold territory.

Quote from: wrangler on December 20, 2007, 08:44:06 AM
Hi David
This stock is definately a candidate for bottom bounce. It gave buy signal yesterday,,bottom bounce plays are short term plays using 20 DMA for sell target because they usually bounce back down when getting close to 20 DMA. Buy signal is when RSI 5 rise above 30 line heading out of oversold territory.

I still think PAL is working up for a bounce : JMO

I don't know, it looks like its still not ready for the turn around.
take a look at the momemtum, distribution and money flow index.

PAL : has steadily been moving up to form small ascending triangle. If it can go above 4.00 and stay it could be the bounce.

I'm going to buy back PAL for the Main Portfolio today. Here are my reasons:

1 - PAL's $86 M private placement (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080109/0346559.html) was mostly subscribed by its long term shareholder, the Kaiser Francis Oil Company, which is a very strong hand. According to an SEC filing dated January 14, 2007, Kaiser Francis currently owns 39,534,806 PAL shares, or 46.6% of the company on a fully diluted basis.

This means the market cap is (36,534,806/0.466)*$4.63 = $363 M.

This article (http://www.energybulletin.net/1193.html) gives us some more clues about the Kaiser Francis Oil Company and especially its CEO and 70% owner, George Kaiser (http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/OXNB.html), who is the 140th wealthiest person in the World (26th in the US), with an estimated fortune of $4.4 B.

Because Kaiser Francis subscribed the private placement, increasing the number of shares it owns from 26 million to 36.5 million, I believe there won't be more dilution and the invested money will grow, not diminish. This private placement isn't like others, when investors give money to the company and at the same time they sell/sell short the stock in the open market to lock in a secure profit. No, this was mostly subscribed by long term investors who probably won't sell for a quick profit.

2 - The $86 M will be used to enhance operations at some of the company's investments that still aren't producing any revenues:

«The proceeds of the offering and the exercise of the over-allotment option will be used to fund the growth and development of the Company's operations and, in particular, to advance the Offset High Grade Zone Project, the Shebandowan West Project and the Arctic Platinum Project.»

3 - Palladium prices recovered and are knocking on the 5 year high door (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livepalladium.html). Of the by-product metals that the company produces, Platinum and Gold are at all time highs. Copper is also near all time highs and just nickel is lagging a bit, but still off the lows.

4 - Production increased 21% in 2007, as the company announced a few days ago:

• North American Palladium Increases Annual Production by 21% (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080117/0349665.html)
Marketwire (Thu, Jan 17)

5 - Technically the stock just closed above the 50 days SMA and it looks like the bottom was made at $3.4. The trend is turning bullish again:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43327;image)

The Trading Plan is:

Buy PAL, 5% of capital.

David, why not wait until the stochastics on PAL are in oversold territory before getting in? Right now it's seriously overbought and screaming for a pullback.

What's a better entry point? Under $4?

looks like somewhere between 4.05 and 4.08 is a good entry point.

I'd wait for another 4% drop or so before getting in. But that said, since I'm 95% on the sidelines I'm speaking as an armchair quarterback. I am intrigued by swing trading in metals and using bollanger bands and schotastics to time the trades. Not exactly David's cup of tea though.... Right now is the time to sell in most metal markets and to wait for decent pullbacks before diving in. Of course David's long term approach works under different principles...

yeah, kind of the same thing I have been looking at. stochastic right now is showing over baught and the red line just turned south. I don't expect it to go back down to the oversold position of around 30% but stochastics do seem to have a funny way of going up and down.

Quote from: capricho on January 30, 2008, 08:46:42 AM
David, why not wait until the stochastics on PAL are in oversold territory before getting in? Right now it's seriously overbought and screaming for a pullback.

The stochastic oscillator can say anything you want, you just have to manipulate the time period. Take a look at this stochastic:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43339;image)

This is a 100 days SO. Obviously the one you're using is a shorter term one, perhaps a 9 or 21 days period?

Anyway, you were right on your assessment of the short term reality for PAL and I have to congratulate you on this call :)

But I caution you not to emphasize the value of the stochastic or any other technical indicator as a prediction tool. I want to tell you a story:

In 1996 I was eagerly reading all the books I could about the stock market and read a small book called something like "technical analysis explained". It had an explanation of how the stochastic oscillator was calculated and I started calculating it for some stocks ... at the time I thought the mathematical indicator was so fascinating (I didn't know more) that I really wanted it to work, so I adjusted the time frame so that signals would always be right. I even made a study for my university demonstrating how the stochastic oscillator could predict stock prices, with plenty of well chosen examples.

Obviously I was very naive at the time and a couple of years later I concluded that the stochastic oscillator or any other technical indicator can be manipulated to support our beliefs about the future and it doesn't have any predictive power.

Quote from: pinoleropuro on January 30, 2008, 08:35:42 PM
looks like somewhere between 4.05 and 4.08 is a good entry point.

Maybe, who knows about the short term?

To me $4.64 was good enough and now I have a 6.7% loss so surely I'm not the right man to tell you about short term timing in stocks. So good luck for you :)

In my study PAL's decline from $12 or so to below $4 was justifiable by a deterioration of the fundamentals. Now these fundamentals are turning north again and they're as good or even better than when the stock was at $12 (since palladium, gold and platinum prices are higher now and production is also higher). However, this isn't enough to judge the stock as undervalued, since it could be very overvalued at $12 and say, fairly valued now.

But if you look at the Mining companies average valuation metrics you see that PAL is deeply undervalued.

We'll make some comparisons in upcoming updates. I'll keep holding PAL for the long term.

South African Gold, Platinum Mines can raise power.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=an55.TnOERAw&refer=africa (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=an55.TnOERAw&refer=africa)

Gap up today?!

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/ (http://www.thebulliondesk.com/)

Hang on to that palladium guys. Check out SWC

palladium futures

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 01, 2008, 11:47:58 AM
Hang on to that palladium guys. Check out SWC

SWC, what a bull run, up 72% in 9 trading days :o

SWC also lost a bit of money over the last few quarters, like PAL. But there are positive EPS estimates for SWC for 2008, more precisely, $0.45 EPS, so SWC trades at 28 times forward earnings, which isn't expensive, when comparing to other mining companies.

Unfortunately there are no analysts estimates for PAL ... I wonder if it will also be profitable in 2008. For this I would like to know the reasoning behind the expected turnaround in SWC and then see if I could extrapolate that into PAL's business.

Well, if the reasoning is based on the price of palladium ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43424;image)

... we're at fresh new 5 year highs. But I'll have to study SWC further in upcoming updates.

I think that if PAL moves another 10% up over the next few days, people will be surprised to see that most shares which could be converted from the recent private placement aren't showing up for sale (because most were bought by long term investors, not looking for a quick profit) and that can be a further reason to bid the stock higher.

Now we have Gold, Platinum and Palladium around multi-year highs (all time highs in Gold and Platinum cases), which are all produced by PAL and in higher quantities in Q4 2007 than in Q4 2006, according to this news release:

• North American Palladium Increases Annual Production by 21% (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080117/0349665.html)
Marketwire (Thu, Jan 17)

Since Platinum is so high right now, I wonder about PAL's Arctic Platinum Project in Finland (http://www.napalladium.com/explore_arctic.htm). It doesn't seem to be coming to production soon, but we'll hear about studies and projections for this project during the course of 2008. It's impressive to see how long it takes to build a precious metals mine, no wonder their prices are rising. I enjoy the partnership with GoldFields (GFI), since it is a $9.2 B market cap, while PAL is $396 M.

I guess my entry timing doesn't look so bad right now ... one has to pick his analytical tools according to his time frame, don't expect to be a long term investor while you're paying attention to technical indicators, because, even if you're exactly right in your entry timing, your hands will always be shaking, because your reasoning for buying came from a short term indicator that keeps changing, so, to be coherent, you should sell when the indicator says "sell", which is every two weeks or so.

I'll hold PAL for the long term.

   







 



 
Is Palladium Too Plentiful
To Be More Profitable?
By ALLEN SYKORA
February 4, 2008; Page C7

Palladium has been a laggard in the rally in precious metals, but some analysts feel it may be poised for a leg higher.

In Russia, the world's biggest source of palladium, holders of the metal appear to be selling smaller amounts. But with gold and platinum at records, demand for palladium jewelry is increasing, pushing up demand for the metal overall. There also is the potential for increased demand for automobile catalytic converters.


Still, the main problem that has plagued palladium -- that annual supply exceeds demand -- means some believe palladium prices already may be lofty.

Nearby and most-active March palladium on Friday rose $22.55, or 5.7%, to $417.05 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first time a nearby contract was above $400 since May 2006.

Palladium is one of the platinum-group metals whose main industrial application is for catalytic converters. Other uses include dental crowns and bridgework, electronics and jewelry.

Spot-month palladium on the Nymex peaked at $1,090 in January 2001, during a period when bureaucratic delays by Russia held up permits that sometimes meant no shipments for weeks at a time. By April 2003, it had tumbled to $145 and has traded in the $300s since February 2006. It has risen 25% since the February 2006 high, which is tame compared with a 63% rise in gold over the past two years and a 62% gain for platinum.

Comparisons to platinum and palladium are common as both are used for catalytic converters and jewelry.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it expected palladium to underperform against platinum, especially given large above-ground palladium stocks. Palladium averaged 27% of the platinum price in 2007, compared with a long-term average of 54%.

But "steady exhaustion" of palladium stocks could boost the metal, said strategist Michael Jansen, suggesting "the real long-term palladium price" should be around $450.

Frank Holmes, chief executive of U.S. Global Investors, looks for gains in palladium on the heels of rising platinum. Any efforts by the auto sector to substitute for more-expensive platinum may further help palladium, he said.

Stillwater Added to Preferred Stock List
Monday February 4, 12:08 pm ET 
Stillwater Shares Rise After JPMorgan Adds Miner to Preferred List, Citing Supply Dip


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Stillwater Mining Co. rose Monday after JPMorgan added the platinum and palladium miner to a list of preferred stocks, saying global supply problems should boost Stillwater's share price.
ADVERTISEMENT


The stock rose 59 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $13.36 in midday trading.

Analyst John Bridges placed Billings, Mont.-based Stillwater on his "Focus List" with a $16 price target.

Power outages in South Africa, where about 80 percent of the world's platinum and 35 percent of its palladium are mined, should constrict supply, he said.

Further, a glut of Russian metals that had flooded that market for years dipped in 2007 to 24 metric tons from 70 metric tons and still is falling, he said.

With the amount of available palladium and platinum dropping, Bridges said he "the potential for a perfect storm," especially for palladium prices.

Palladium, which is sometimes used as a lower-cost substitute for platinum, is a key component of auto parts, such as catalytic convertors.

Palladium prices jumped 5 percent last Friday, helping to boost Stillwater shares. Bridges said the stock should continue to rise to at least his $16 target.

"We are confident of this upside due to the way palladium has lagged the commodity sector during the recent bull-market," Bridges said in a note to clients.

And demand for palladium should only grow further, as advancements in technology and willingness to control carbon emissions means more of the precious metal is needed, he said.

David,  I am loaded up with stocks at this moment, but would like to get into PAL, since it looks like it has a great potential now. Which stock would you recommend to sell in the portfolio? I have all of them, and think some are a lot more sluggish than PAL, but can't decide which one. Thanks!

Quote from: berloga on February 04, 2008, 08:06:00 PM
David,  I am loaded up with stocks at this moment, but would like to get into PAL, since it looks like it has a great potential now. Which stock would you recommend to sell in the portfolio? I have all of them, and think some are a lot more sluggish than PAL, but can't decide which one. Thanks!

This is always a tough question berloga, because if I wanted to sell one of the Main's holdings, I would do so. But I guess ASTI, for example, and taking on IMMR's story as well, could be a good candidate for a switch, mainly because it will take another year or so for the company to start generating meaningful revenues and I'm not sure investors will be patient enough.

But you really need to get into PAL, since, as it happens with $GOLD, $PALL seems indifferent to the current state of the general market:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43492;image)

Palladium is one of the few things moving up, and it has just started a bull run. The all time high is over $1,000. This is exactly what we need to look for in this environment, because bear market or not, there are stocks outthere which will move up 10 fold and one of those can bring a nice performance to a portfolio, much better than selling stocks short.

The current weakness in PAL due to profit taking seems like a nice buying opportunity.

I'll keep holding PAL.

Palladium futures continue to march higher:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43530;image)

And that is helping PAL, which is the World's largest palladium producer, at least according to the company.

There's another publicly traded company in the palladium mining field, which is SWC:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43531;image)

Up about 100% in three weeks. But let's compare SWC and PAL's medium term charts:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43532;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43534;image)

The charts are similar, but PAL is still much more depressed than SWC. I think this has to do with the private placement PAL made recently ... that was a cause for concern for me too, but as I looked deeper and saw who was buying and how strong were his hands, I felt much more confident about PAL. The investor clearly isn't looking for a short term gain.

So, is it possible for PAL to be back up to $12 plus? I believe so, because fundamentals are better now than what they were in mid 2006 and mid 2007. I wonder if we'll have a gigantic rally until May 2008, like it happened in the previous two years.

I'll continue holding PAL.

again applauds for this pick David !
cheers from SGP
O.

More Than Momentum: Stocks Rising for a Reason
By Dave Mock February 13, 2008

Recommendations
Even on the market's worst days, buyout news or other short-term forces can send individual stocks up by 10%, 25%, even 50%. For example, when Allis-Chalmers Energy (NYSE: ALY) agreed to pay $438 million for oil services firm Bronco Drilling (Nasdaq: BRNC), the latter's stock jumped more than 16% in a single day.

But beyond one-time blips like this are stocks with compelling reasons for recent momentum -- provided you can find them. That's where Motley Fool CAPS comes in.

The story behind the story
CAPS is no crowd of lemmings; its best-performing investors' opinions do more to shape each company's rating than the picks of their poorer-performing peers. Let's use the collective wisdom of more than 83,000 CAPS investors to filter out the noise and find companies showing strong momentum.

We'll screen for companies with a stock-price increase of at least 30% in the past month, a market cap of greater than $100 million, and a beta of less than 3. That'll keep us clear of the wild, pump-and-dump land of penny stocks.

Here's a sample of stocks our screen returned.

Company
CAPS Rating
(Out of 5)
1-Month
Price Change

North American Palladium (AMEX: PAL)
*****
51.9%

Cree (Nasdaq: CREE)
****
29.7%

TBS International (Nasdaq: TBSI)
****                                                  Here we are too.
32.4%

JetBlue Airways (Nasdaq: JBLU)
**
41.8%

Lennar (NYSE: LEN)
*
37.6%

Return data is calculated as the difference between the closing price on Jan. 11 and the closing price on Feb. 12, as per MSN Money's screen. Star ranking from CAPS. Data as of Feb. 12.
Let's burrow down through this list of stocks that have thumped the market over the past month, and find out why they've performed so well.

Metal madness
Topping this week's list of momentum stocks is Canada's largest palladium miner, North American Palladium. In addition to soaring more than 50% in the past month, the company made the grade as a stock star with a highly favored five-star rating from the CAPS community.

Shares of the company have been driven higher on two main developments -- a warm reception to a secondary share offering, and the announcement of a strong fourth quarter and full year of production. North American Palladium netted $86 million from a unit offering late last year, which successfully sold its over-allotment commitments as well. Facing a dwindling cash balance, investors were heartened by the news, since the proceeds will go a long way toward supporting development of mining projects in Canada and Finland.

The new cash infusion paired nicely with the 21% increase in palladium production the company saw in 2007, thanks to increased output at its Lac des Iles mine. Similarly, the firm also saw increased output in byproduct metals such as nickel, gold, platinum, and copper last year. With shares trading at less than half of last May's price, and the company pursuing an unhedged palladium policy, many CAPS investors think that now is the time to go long on palladium. Of the 350 investors rating the company, 336 believe that North American Palladium will beat the S&P going forward.

Light at the end of the tunnel
Another stock surging this past month, Cree, owes its hot streak to renewed optimism for demand in LED lighting solutions. With government bodies around the world pushing for new levels of lighting efficiency, investors have a bullish opinion of Cree's capability to meet these demands with technology for LED lighting across a diverse set of markets.

Analysts and the mainstream press have also been shining a light on Cree and other companies in the LED supply chain lately, exposing their potential to solve energy demand issues in emerging markets. Tack onto this a blowout quarter recently announced by the company, which included a forecast for revenue to grow to between $120 million and $125 million in the next quarter, and you've got one hot stock. A solid contingent of CAPS investors like the direction of the long-term trends in lighting, collectively giving the stock a four-star rating. Of the 163 All-Stars rating the company, 147 believe that Cree will outpace the S&P going forward.

the chart says it all  :o
chapeaux David  8)

I guess, I've done well by putting my CHME and IMMR money into PAL, after all. If PAL hits 100% profit, I can sell 1/2 and buy another stock, if I want to. Granted, things like this are not always easy to predict (or as David would put it, impossible to predict  :)).

Platinum and Rhodium: Two Metals On Fireposted on: February 19, 2008 | about stocks: PAL / SWC     
Platinum has now pushed over $2000 an ounce.  Rhodium has pushed thru $8500 an ounce.  To say these metals have been on fire would be an understatement.  The increase in these two metals has been because of power and labor issues in South Africa.  The biggest beneficiaries of the issues in South Africa have been the producers in North America and Russia.  While North America and Russia deposits "usually" has more palladium than platinum and rhodium in its deposits (note: palladium has also done well) they are still benefiting greatly from this price boom.


Companies such as North American Palladium (PAL) and Stillwater Mining (SWC) have seen resurgence in their stock price over the past couple of months.  While those two companies have had a great run recently, I always like to look at companies who have operations adjacent to these companies and see if the surronding companies also have decent prospects but have not participated in the run-up.  I'll introduce two explorers that surround Stillwater Mining that might be of interest in your portfolio.


Beartooth Platinum (BTP.V) has a land position (5976 hectares ) surrounding Stillwater Mining Company's two operating mines in Montana.  Beartooth also has a joint venture with Premium Exploration Inc. (PEM.V) on additional Stillwater claims.  These properties have reported decent platinum, palladium, and rhodium grades (2006 drill results- Release 1 , Release 2 with Rhodium Results).     On October 17, 2007, Beartooth Platinum announced their completion of their 2007 drill program in Montana.  Assay results from the 2007 drill program should be out in the very near future.  If the grades are similar to that of the 2006 drill program, Beartooth Platinum and Premium Exploration's stock price should appreciate.  Also with good drill results, Stillwater Mining might look into owning a piece in both of those companies.

Beartooth Platinum and Premium Exploration aren't one property companies either.  Beartooth is currently exploring a PGM project in South Africa and Premium Exploration has some decent looking gold and silver projects in Mexico and the United States..

PGM metals are hot right now, and even though prices might come off from these high levels once the South Africa situation is ironed out, companies that can find high-grade PGM projects outside of South Africa will be in high demand.

Looking at what Palladium futures have been doing ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43675;image)

... and $gold and Platinum I easily get to the conclusion that PAL's fundamentals are much better now that what they were in 2006 and 2007 when the stock traded at $12 plus. I think the current bullish move will keep going and pass beyond $12.

People selling today just can't stand to let a profit grow, in my view.

I think of PAL as the potential tenbagger that can push the Main to a 50% gain, even if all other stocks compensate each other and remain flat. Some stocks will rise 10 fold in 2008 and PAL has the ingredients to be one of them.

So I'll just let the profits run.

Palladium futures ($PALL at www.stockcharts.com) continue to power ahead:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43706;image)

And Palladium is much higher than what it was in 2006 and 2007:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43707;image)

Yet, PAL is still way below its 2006 and 2007 highs:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43708;image)

And the company's production increased:

• North American Palladium Increases Annual Production by 21% (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080117/0349665.html)
Marketwire (Thu, Jan 17)

I'm not an expert at anything, much less so in valuing mining stocks, but it appears to me that PAL will be worth more than $12 a share in some time to come. At least fundamentals are much better now than what they were when the stock traded at those levels.

The late 2007 sell off was mostly due to a private placement, which we've already seen was subscribed by the very strong hands of the largest shareholder of the company with a 45% plus stake.

I know there will be corrections along the way, so I don't expect every day to be strongly positive like the recent past, but I see PAL at $12 plus in a few months time and I'll keep holding for that outcome.

David, you have several blanks in the "target" price section of the front page table. I find the target exit values useful to assert a stock's potential, especially when trying to figure out which one to buy. Why don't you update that anymore for the new holdings? Even using your near term (1 year) expectation would come in handy. Thanks!

QuoteDavid, you have several blanks in the "target" price section of the front page table.

Yes. Some of those blanks are due to the impossibility of projecting financial estimates (like in ASTI and IMMR cases) and others are due to my current belief that investing from a fundamental perspective is much more than just extrapolating current financial trends into the future.

QuoteI find the target exit values useful to assert a stock's potential, especially when trying to figure out which one to buy.

Yes, I understand that it would be great to always have a target for a sale, but I find my efforts in that camp perhaps misleading. Companies and stocks are much more complex and change due to many more variables than the ones I was considering.

QuoteWhy don't you update that anymore for the new holdings? Even using your near term (1 year) expectation would come in handy. Thanks!

Because I feel that could be misleading and it would tie myself too much to an expectation of the future. And the perceived future keeps changing.

When I developed the valuation model I was considering that the market would correct its inefficiencies and basically price businesses which have similar financial metrics and trends in basically the same way. But now I see that the way investors value companies has a lot more to it ... it is possible that two businesses with basically the same financial metrics and trends are valued completely differently, say, one is worth 5 times more than the other, and that has to do with the intrinsic and unique nature of each business.

We'll come back to these issues soon.

As for PAL, the Main Portfolio has reached the 100% return on this holding, which was bought less than one month ago. I know everything I said about investing for the long term and that PAL is certainly now worth more than $12. However, I also hear the voice of my experience in 2007, where I held several stocks which at one point returned about 100% and I let a good chunk of profits slip (or in some cases, all of it).

This happened in GSB, ASTI, SDTH, SILC, GIGM, ICOC, NVTL and CPNE.OB.

PAL never was one of those really long term investments for me and I know the company will report a loss in Q4 2007, because production fell from the year ago level, prices were about the same and the company lost $6 M, or 12 cents a share, in Q4 2006. How do you think people having a 100% profit will react to these news?

I think it is possible that due to this short term disappointment my profit may be cut in half, from 100% to 50%. If the stock goes down to close the gap at $6.76, my profit would diminish to 46%, and this is entirely possible.

I prefer to take profits now and if this short term scenario plays out I get back in around $6.76. I'm not as confident in PAL's fundamentals as I am in other stocks.

The Trading Plan is:

SELL.

Thanks for the answers, David. I agree, the game is more complex than simply setting a target and wait until we hit it. The best thing I like about this service is its flexibility, i.e. constant progression in searching for a better solution. It is alright to abandon old views and assume new ones. As one philosopher said, "I live, which means I change". Good job!

Sold PAL at $9. Back in IMMR at $9.7.  :D

David,   Great pick and call on PAL.  Nothing wrong with taking these kind of profits in such a short time frame.  Probably going against my better judgement since I usually follow you I am holding off on selling for now.  Right now and the next couple of months I am very bullish on precious metals.  The GRS I bought a few weeks ago is also up over 50%.  We will know in the fullness of time.  Thanks again,  To good health and trading.
Poli

Quote from: berloga on February 26, 2008, 09:49:15 AM
Thanks for the answers, David. I agree, the game is more complex than simply setting a target and wait until we hit it. The best thing I like about this service is its flexibility, i.e. constant progression in searching for a better solution. It is alright to abandon old views and assume new ones. As one philosopher said, "I live, which means I change". Good job!

Sold PAL at $9. Back in IMMR at $9.7.  :D

Thanks berloga :) The only constant thing in the market is change.

QuoteRight now and the next couple of months I am very bullish on precious metals.

Hi poli, not talking specifically on PAL or GRS (which I don't know) and not because I sold PAL, but I think precious metals have been very hot for some time now and the market is changing.

With the market changing from bearish to bullish it is probable that some sector rotation occurs. You see that inflation is yesterday's story by the market's reaction to today's PPI report.

I might be wrong on this sector call, but the way I see things evolving, investors will take profits in precious metals and commodities and will buy beaten down sectors like the financials and consumer related.

Just my 2 cents, as they may help you to also consider the other side, good luck :)

David,  I agree with you on some sector rotation and of a pullback on these stocks.  I am just trying to squeeze as much blood out of these turnips as I can.  I am watching closely and also I decided to wait to sell because SWC has their earnings call today and I want to hear the results of it.  I also believe if we do pull back and I am out of some of these it will present a good buying opportunity to bet back in.  I think the precious metals have a ways to go over the next couple of years.  We will know in the fullness of time.  Good health.
Poli

David,  I listened to SWC conference call and decided to sell.  I sold at 9.16,  thanks again.  Good health.
Poli

David,   I could not stand being out of PAL, and I was hoping for a little more correction over a little more time than what it gave us but I got back in at 8.43 today about a 9% discount to what I sold it for.  Wish me well.  To all good health and trading.
Poli

Quote from: poli on February 29, 2008, 12:43:32 AM
David,   I could not stand being out of PAL, and I was hoping for a little more correction over a little more time than what it gave us but I got back in at 8.43 today about a 9% discount to what I sold it for.  Wish me well.  To all good health and trading.
Poli

Good luck Poli :)

I'll keep waiting for PAL's quarterly results and a better entry point at the closing of the $6.76 gap. Do not wish me luck ;D

enrgizer bunny  :o

Quote from: David Randolph on February 29, 2008, 08:40:08 AM

Quote from: poli on February 29, 2008, 12:43:32 AM
David,   I could not stand being out of PAL, and I was hoping for a little more correction over a little more time than what it gave us but I got back in at 8.43 today about a 9% discount to what I sold it for.  Wish me well.  To all good health and trading.
Poli

Good luck Poli :)

I'll keep waiting for PAL's quarterly results and a better entry point at the closing of the $6.76 gap. Do not wish me luck ;D

David it's almost there $6.90
$6.15 could be a nice entry  ;)

in at 6.75

Bought my 3rd serving today.

Poli

9th of March Q4 and 2007 results
North American Palladium Ltd. (TSX: PDL)(TSX: PDL.WT)(AMEX: PAL)(AMEX: PAL.WS) will release its fourth quarter and year end 2007 financial results on Wednesday March 19th after market close. A conference call to discuss the results will be held on Thursday March 20th, 2008 at 3:00 p.m. ET, presided by Mr. Jim Excell, President and Chief Executive Officer. A question and answer period will immediately follow.

To participate in the conference call, please dial one of the following numbers at least five minutes prior to the scheduled time:

Conference Call: Thursday March 20th, 3:00 p.m. ET
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Local Toronto /Overseas: 416-641-6125
Toll free North America: 1-866-226-1799

To access a replay of the conference call until April 3, 2008:
Local Toronto/Overseas: 416-695-5800
Toll-free: 1-800-408-3053 Access code 3253315


updated Feb 2008 IR presentation:

http://www.napalladium.com/pdf/NAP200802.pdf



looks good imho; support is holding

I'll wait after earnings release on therusday to get in ..

Stillwater Mining Company Recaps Palladium Jewelry Market Development Program Decision Taken Under the Auspices of the International Platinum Group Metals Association
Tuesday March 11, 10:03 am ET


BILLINGS, MT--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 11, 2008 -- STILLWATER MINING COMPANY (NYSE:SWC - News) today reiterated a news release made from Moscow, Russia, Monday, March 3, 2008 in which MMC Norilsk Nickel, announced that, "following a comprehensive study involving independent consultants and the Palladium Alliance International, a decision has been taken to plan and implement a market development program for palladium jewelry."
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Norilsk Nickel, the largest producer of palladium, will lead the initiative supported by Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin, the major palladium producers in South Africa, and Stillwater Mining Company, the sole producer of palladium in the United States of America.

The release, which can be accessed on the Norilsk Nickel web site at www.nornik.ru is included in full in this release as reported by MMC Norilsk Nickel:

Extension of market development programme for platinum group metals in jewellery with significant development proposed for palladium jewellery

Following a comprehensive study involving independent consultants and the Palladium Alliance International, under the auspices of the International Platinum Group Metals Association, a decision has been taken to plan and implement a market development programme for palladium jewellery. The initiative will initially focus on China and the United States of America. Norilsk Nickel, the largest producer of palladium, will lead, supported by the major palladium producers in South Africa (Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum, and Lonmin) and the United States of America (Stillwater Mining Company).

The objective is to establish successfully a clear and specific brand position for palladium in jewellery which, in partnership with the jewellery designers, manufacturers and retailers, will achieve a sustainable market with growth opportunities for palladium metal offtake. This follows on from the platinum jewellery development programme supported by the South African platinum producers since 1975. The platinum programme is led by Anglo Platinum and it will continue. Norilsk Nickel and Stillwater Mining Company will be supporting the platinum programme.

Both platinum and palladium jewellery market development, will in future be funded by the same group, but will be managed by separate organisations. A new individual brand identity will be developed for palladium jewellery.

The key Platinum Group Metal Producers believe this to be an important strategic development for the industry, both cementing the market position for platinum jewellery and significantly enhancing the value of palladium as a jewellery metal in its own right.

Stillwater Mining Company is the only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum and is the largest primary producer of platinum group metals outside of South Africa and Russia. The Company's shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SWC. Information on Stillwater Mining Company can be found at its web site: www.stillwatermining.com.

nice price action today, hoping for an earning run...

chart update  8)

good results imo:
This news release contains forward-looking statements. Reference should be made to the cautionary statement on forward-looking information at the end of this news release.

Highlights of 2007

- Revenue for the year increased by $36.7 million to $195.9 million, up 23% versus 2006.

- Operating cash flow for the year (before changes in non-cash working capital(1) improved by $36.9 million to $46.8 million compared to operating cash flow of $9.9 million in 2006.

- The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2007 was $28.7 million or $0.51 per share compared to a net loss of $34.1 million or $0.65 per share in 2006. The net loss for the year includes a net negative impact of $19.0 million (2006 - net negative impact $3.7 million) due to foreign exchange gains and losses.

- Palladium production increased by 21% to 286,334 ounces for the year ending December 31, 2007 versus production of 237,338 ounces the previous year.

- Palladium represented 47% of the year's total revenues while platinum and nickel contributed 16% and 22% respectively.

- Total by-product revenues for the year increased by 25% to $104.1 million versus $83.6 million in 2006.

- Cash cost per ounce of palladium produced(1), net of by-product metal revenues and royalties, was US$164 in 2007 compared to US$201 last year.

- North American Palladium completed an equity offering that resulted in total gross proceeds to the Company of approximately US$86 million,

which will be used to advance its three platinum group metals (PGM) and nickel-copper projects.

(1) Non-GAAP measure. Reference should be made to footnote 1 at the end of this Press Release.

North American Palladium Ltd. announced today financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2007.

Revenue, after pricing adjustments, in the fourth quarter of 2007 was $46.5 million, lower than the fourth quarter of 2006 by $4.3 million due mainly to the negative foreign exchange impact from the continued strengthening of the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar. For the year ended December 31, 2007, revenue after pricing adjustments was $195.9 million, an increase of $36.7 million or 23%, compared to revenue of $159.2 million last year.

Palladium production for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 of 71,595 ounces was down slightly (2%) compared to 73,242 ounces the previous year and reflects increased scheduled maintenance downtime in the fourth quarter of 2007. Palladium production for the year ended December 31, 2007 increased to 286,334 ounces, up 21% compared to the previous year.

Palladium sales in the fourth quarter of 2007 were recorded at an average price of US$364 per ounce versus an average price of US$322 in the same period in 2006. For the year ended December 31, 2007 palladium sales were recorded at an average price of US$356 per ounce, up 12%, compared to US$319 in 2006.

For the quarter ended December 31, 2007, cash cost per ounce(1) of palladium, net of by-product metal revenues, was US$223 per ounce versus US$108 in the same period last year and reflects primarily the negative impact of the strengthening Canadian dollar on by-product metal revenue. For the year ended December 31, 2007 the cash cost per ounce(1) of palladium produced declined to US$164 per ounce compared with US$201 per ounce in 2006, reflecting the increase in production together with continued strength in by-product metal prices, partially offset by the strengthening Canadian dollar.

The Company recognized a loss from mining operations of $8.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to income of $0.5 million in the same period last year. The loss is due to lower revenue of $4.3 million, which includes a negative foreign exchange impact of $7.2 million, and increased operating costs due primarily to increased production costs ($1.0 million), smelting, refining and freight costs ($1.5 million) and amortization charges ($0.9 million). The loss from mining operations for the year ended December 31, 2007 was $19.4 million, an increase of $1.3 million (7%), compared to the loss of $18.1 million last year.

The net loss for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 was $11.1 million or $0.19 per share compared to a loss of $7.4 million or $0.14 per share in the same period last year. For the year ended December 31, 2007, the Company decreased its net loss to $28.7 million ($0.51 per share) from the 2006 loss of $34.1 million ($0.65 per share) despite a negative foreign exchange impact of $19.0 million (2006 negative impact of $3.7 million) due to strengthening of the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar.

Operating cash flow for the year (before changes in non-cash working capital(1) improved by $36.9 million to $46.8 million compared to operating cash flow of $9.9 million in 2006.

(1) Non-GAAP measure. Reference should be made to footnote 1 at the end of this Press Release.

Mr. Jim Excell, President and Chief Executive Officer said, "The consistent and improved production results are gratifying and supports our drive toward strengthening the Company's financial position. Having raised US$86 million in a recent financing, we are well-positioned to aggressively advance the Shebandowan West and the Offset High Grade Zone projects in Ontario, as well as the Arctic Platinum Project in Finland, towards production decisions." Mr. Excell added, "Since December 31, 2007 we have seen a significant increase in PGM prices, highlighting increased demand and growing supply concerns in South Africa. If the prevailing metal prices are sustained, it can have a very positive impact on the Company's 2008 financial performance."

Outlook

Palladium production is expected to increase by approximately 5% for the year ended December 31, 2008 with an estimated total production of approximately 300,000 ounces. The proportion of by-product metals produced is, in aggregate, expected to increase in tandem with palladium production.

A key strategy moving forward will be to continue the pursuit of opportunities to acquire good quality PGM-Ni-Cu projects. The Company's ambitious exploration program will continue in 2008, with an important component being the completion of a feasibility study for the Arctic Platinum Project in Finland. In addition, a preliminary economic assessment of the Offset High Grade Zone at Lac des Iles is nearing completion and the Company anticipates releasing the results during the second quarter of 2008. A preliminary economic assessment of the Shebandowan West Project is also anticipated in the second quarter of 2008 which evaluates a ramp-accessed underground mine scenario. Discussions are currently underway with Vale-Inco about the next steps for the Shebandowan joint venture.

Further information about the 2007 year-end results are available in the Company's financial statements and MD&A, which will be filed on its website, with Canadian provincial securities authorities (www.sedar.com) and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov).

bad chart imo:
very disappointing at the moment...........

Quotegood results imo:

North American Palladium Announces Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2007 Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080319/0377541.html)
Marketwire(Wed 6:42pm)

I think they were bad la-onda, with a ($11 M) loss, or ($0.19) per share, in the 4th quarter alone.

But as you know, I was expecting these results, this is why I took profits around $9 (one of the few trades I've done well this year).

Palladium futures ($PALL in www.stockcharts.com) also had a correction to the 50 days SMA, which I believe is a good spot to buy for the long term in ascending trends:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44219;image)

$PALL average price in Q4 was $364. It closed yesterday at $464 (down from $600!). This tells me PAL's 1st quarter 2008 results will be much better, as the CEO says:

Mr. Excell added, "Since December 31, 2007 we have seen a significant increase in PGM prices, highlighting increased demand and growing supply concerns in South Africa. If the prevailing metal prices are sustained, it can have a very positive impact on the Company's 2008 financial performance."

I could dig deeper, listen to the conference call, read the 10-K filing, but that didn't help me anything in the past.

I'll add PAL to the Main today and my reasoning is simple:

1) The stock had a 177% rally because the outlook for the future improved dramatically due to a sharp increase in palladium prices;
2) Then it came off 40% from the high set less than a month ago due to profit taking and because past results, to be released, were going to be bad;
3) Now that the bad news of the past are out of the way, investors will probably put their eyes into the future again and the stock should rise back up.

If it will be just a test of the $9 level or a more sustained and long term move depends if $PALL can move beyond $600 oz or not.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy PAL, 6.66% of capital.

Careful David,PAL down early,could dip below $5. Downward mo. Commodities selling off.

It's a great timing David

Closing above 5.50 today could drive it high . You'er doing good work with this one ..

What is the point in buying into downward momentum?  There is no technical buy point down to $4.  Why not buy then, or wait for an upturn in momentum?  Your timing is killing your capital.

Let David works, buddjas...if you don't like, don't invest...that's it.

David has not the crystal ball, and working in this market environment it is very difficult for everyone.

Do, buddjas: please tell us your picks and make a comparison.
Run a fund, and see your returns.

Thanks!

Quote from: terainvestment on March 20, 2008, 11:35:43 AM
Let David works, buddjas...if you don't like, don't invest...that's it.

David has not the crystal ball, and working in this market environment it is very difficult for everyone.

Do, buddjas: please tell us your picks and make a comparison.
Run a fund, and see your returns.

Thanks!

I do tell my picks.  I even started an exercise three weeks ago, logging all my trades while I turn $400 and some into much more.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=11012.msg113427#new

I am up over 20%, while the DOW30 is up less than 1%.  Only time will tell if I can do that consistently.

Did you buy PAL?  Why or why not?

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 20, 2008, 11:24:03 AM
What is the point in buying into downward momentum?  There is no technical buy point down to $4.  Why not buy then, or wait for an upturn in momentum?  Your timing is killing your capital.

Now you're into technical analysis buddjas1? I still remember when you held on to IEAM, due to "fundamentals", as it fell 90%.

Anyway, I respect your changes, as you must do with mine.

At least so far I'm winning in PAL, 3.64%. This wasn't your best choice to finger pointing ...

The candle left on the chart and the volume were bullish. Let's see what the next few days bring, unfortunately I'm being forced in thinking more short term.

I know I'm a superior short term trader, I have the tools, the knowledge and the mental flexibility to beat anyone at that game. I tried to play another game, but unfortunately it appears that I wasn't prepared for it.

I'll hold PAL, I think we'll close over $6 today. I'll take a small loss if we close below $5 today.

Blargh, it's so primary to trade like this ...

Your reference to IEAM is a cheap-shot.  If I remember correctly, you lost your fortune more than once, am I right?  I guess I am in good company.

Anyway, I learned my lesson from IEAM.  That lesson is that one must respect technical analysis as much as fundamental analysis.  Fundamental analysis can boil the 10,000 US stocks down to the most "undervalued" 100.  Technical analysis can tell you when to buy and sell those 100 undervalued stocks.  That's is what I am trying to do now.  Otherwise, fundamental analysis alone can be a trap and an excuse to let the losses run.

Have you learned your lesson from UTVG, CHME, etc., etc.?

Regarding PAL, the timing on your purchase from PAL made no sense to me and was too risky.  Maybe you timed a bottom, I don't know.  I wish you luck, however.

C'mon, guys! The tough economic conditions add bitter taste to everyone's spoon! When things are groovy we all strew compliments, when things turn sour, we let the worst of us out. I admire buddjas1's desire to search for better methods and David's courage to stick to his theories and throw in the towel when needed and admit mistakes. We all are learning here, there's no crystal ball...

We should take the best of the 2 approaches and unite them.

• The fundamental analysis is the reason why investors buy stocks - they perceive them cheap and expect appreciation.
• The technical analysis is what the investors often use as a gauge of other investors' perception of the stock at the moment.

Although in the long run, the fundamental analysis will probably prevail, the stock can be severely affected by the short term market conditions.

What buddjas1 recommends is to learn to use these signals to help make our day less sour. While keeping in mind the long term perspective, it is safer to take money off the table to prevent a long-term financial or mental depression. Green always looks more attractive than red and let's confess, we all watch the market daily. Just my two cents.  :)

QuoteYour reference to IEAM is a cheap-shot.  If I remember correctly, you lost your fortune more than once, am I right?  I guess I am in good company.

Yes, that's true.

QuoteAnyway, I learned my lesson from IEAM.  That lesson is that one must respect technical analysis as much as fundamental analysis.  Fundamental analysis can boil the 10,000 US stocks down to the most "undervalued" 100.  Technical analysis can tell you when to buy and sell those 100 undervalued stocks.  That's is what I am trying to do now.  Otherwise, fundamental analysis alone can be a trap and an excuse to let the losses run.

I must say that I admire any person who has the courage to admit mistakes, change his views and evolve. I didn't met many of these in my life.

QuoteHave you learned your lesson from UTVG, CHME, etc., etc.?

That would be a re-learning process. This is why it has been so difficult ... I guess I've learned some lessons and I probably won't make the same mistakes again in the future, but I still didn't execute on some of those losses.

QuoteRegarding PAL, the timing on your purchase from PAL made no sense to me and was too risky.  Maybe you timed a bottom, I don't know.  I wish you luck, however.

It made no sense to you because you're deriving too much to the technical side. Using just that side, was there any sense about selling around $9, like I did, when the stock was very bullish?

There wasn't, but it was the right thing to do over the short term.

PAL is up 4.8% at $5.67 ... we'll see where it closes.

Anyway, what do you think of "sell the rumor, buy the fact"? This was mainly what guided me in PAL, I knew the company would report bad results for Q4, so I sold, then when the news was out, I bought.

I guess this was a more or less good example of "technimental" analysis.

Thanks for your post berloga, you're a practical man, I wish I didn't complicate things so much. You're probably right in your assessments.

Quote from: Garoh on March 20, 2008, 11:22:53 AM
It's a great timing David

Closing above 5.50 today could drive it high . You'er doing good work with this one ..

HSBC upgrades N Amer Palladium (PAL 5.50) to Neutral from Underweight

Quote from: Garoh on March 25, 2008, 06:56:55 AM

Quote from: Garoh on March 20, 2008, 11:22:53 AM
It's a great timing David

Closing above 5.50 today could drive it high . You'er doing good work with this one ..

HSBC upgrades N Amer Palladium (PAL 5.50) to Neutral from Underweight

Thanks for the information Garoh :)

You know what? I'll take a small profit in PAL at the 50 days SMA (today at $6.14), I need a small profit to start getting back on my feet. Need to increase confidence somehow.

The trading plan for PAL is:

1 - Take profits at $6.14
2 - Don't let a profit turn into a loss, that is, SELL if the stock prints $5.22.

As the market is near the bottom, there is pure speculation going on. One day up, the next day down. So, your trading decision on PAL looks very reasonable. It is hard to build any projections at this juncture.

what is magical about $6.14?
there seems to be resistance at $5.95 and at $6.12?

so why $6.14?

just trying to understand.
Thanks.

Quote from: pinoleropuro on March 25, 2008, 09:47:41 AM
what is magical about $6.14?
there seems to be resistance at $5.95 and at $6.12?

so why $6.14?

just trying to understand.
Thanks.

It's the 50 days simple moving average:

QuoteI'll take a small profit in PAL at the 50 days SMA (today at $6.14)

QuoteThe trading plan for PAL is:

1 - Take profits at $6.14
2 - Don't let a profit turn into a loss, that is, SELL if the stock prints $5.22.

Done. 17.6% profit. Not a lot and probably selling was a mistake, but maybe this will cheer me up.

I may not know enough to be a long term investor, or not have enough patience, but I believe I know how to "tic-tac".

I'll try to make some more trades like this.

David;    Nice trade.  Nothing wrong with taking a profit.  I still have my 4 servings and will let you know when I sell.  I do not expect to sell today or this week or next week unless we have a big move,  but my plan is always subject to change.  Good trading and health to you.

Poli

Great trade David (although I disagreed with it).  All that matters (here) is making money.  Whether "tic-tac" or "long-term," the point is to buy low and sell high.  You did that.  So, congrats and applaud. 

A few more tic-tac old-style David, and we'll see a lot more cheer on these pages. Great work. Thanks.

yep, same opinion...why not try a mix between fundamental analyses and ticktack ideas?  :) and congrats Dave to this trade.

Nice trade David. Some more of that would be greatly appreciated. Your winning ways at short term trading is what brought me here in the first place.

Quote from: bluesea on March 25, 2008, 02:36:12 PM
yep, same opinion...why not try a mix between fundamental analyses and ticktack ideas?  :) and congrats Dave to this trade.

I came here for the trades also. I think that the best way to trade is trade fundamentally good stocks, or at least stocks with great growth potential (which requires a good fundamental analysis) I agree with David that trading solely on techs is a net loosing game. I think Davids greatest skill lies in his ability to do both. I hope we see some more of this trading, especially with the market trend in doubt at this point.

David, I did not intend renewing my subscription at the end of this month, but if you intend to shift in this direction I will renew.

I second that motion!!!  ;D

come on David, I can't forget GOAM becuase I missed the stinking trade.  >:(
I mean you made back in less than a week what you had lost with TZOO in months.
come on David you can do it.  ;D

Congratulations David for your great pick on PAL, even if I did not join.
Despite other people who prefer to tic-tac the market, I joined 3SOF because I have seen in you a great potential in terms of long term investing and SERIOUS investing.

There are thousand of other sites that are focused on short term and swing trading, I joined many of them and each one, at the end of the day, failed.

I think that actually almost all the investing capital should be on the sideline and stay in cash: cash IS a POSITION, and in these tough times the best position you can have.

Probably you could obtain great reward if you realize the right mix between market timing and long term investing: the best investors of all the times are all long term investors who picked the right stocks at the right moment, and this is not occasionally.

So, I hope you will stay focused on long term investing, despite the ups and downs of the market, picking up the best stocks at the right moments.

good luck, I will stay tuned

Andrea

Quote from: terainvestment on March 26, 2008, 05:29:28 AM
Congratulations David for your great pick on PAL, even if I did not join.
Despite other people who prefer to tic-tac the market, I joined 3SOF because I have seen in you a great potential in terms of long term investing and SERIOUS investing.

There are thousand of other sites that are focused on short term and swing trading, I joined many of them and each one, at the end of the day, failed.

I think that actually almost all the investing capital should be on the sideline and stay in cash: cash IS a POSITION, and in these tough times the best position you can have.

Probably you could obtain great reward if you realize the right mix between market timing and long term investing: the best investors of all the times are all long term investors who picked the right stocks at the right moment, and this is not occasionally.

So, I hope you will stay focused on long term investing, despite the ups and downs of the market, picking up the best stocks at the right moments.

good luck, I will stay tuned

Andrea

You are correct when you say that the worlds great inverters are long players. What you have not said is that these guys made their money by investing LARGE positions.Positions big enough for them to influence the course of action for the companies they invested in. Small investors do not have the ability to have this strong position. Nor do small investors have teams of people watching every aspect of the companies operations, markets , competitors, suppliers, management, impact of debt, etc. they definitely have a leg up on small investors. try doing all of that with GE for example and you will find you do not have enough hours in the day, or even access to enough of the right information. Also, the biggest investors also have the burden  (blessing) of having to find vehicles suitable for large investment sums, which would create havoc if they tried trading. I believe that some of an investors capital should be in long term investments (supposedly lower risk), some should be actively traded (supposedly higher risk) The proportion to be determined by each investors needs and abilities. Further more ,"investing" long term in small companies is nothing more than speculation(there are just to many fundamental unknowns as well as market forces to leave such a portfolio untended), unless measures are taken to preserve capital  (in other words some trading)

just my 2 cents

Thanks for your comments on this thread :)

PAL, again. I want to squeeze as much juice as I can out of this orange.

Here's my reasoning for buying back PAL:

1 - $PALL has stabilized after what seems to be a correction in a long term bull market. Using Elliot Wave theory just to describe the market action, it appears that the corrective a-b-c is complete:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44430;image)

The long term bull market in Palladium should resume after this normal correction.

2 - PAL (the stock) was down due to the anticipation and then realization of negative 4th quarter results. I knew this bad news was coming and that's why I took profits around $9:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44431;image)

Now, as we've discussed previously, this bad news was relative to the 4th quarter of 2007, which is distant past now. Since then fundamentals have improved dramatically as we'll see next.

Considering the following information released in January 17, 2008:

• North American Palladium Increases Annual Production by 21% (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080117/0349665.html)
Marketwire (Thu, Jan 17)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44432;image)

And the outlook for 2008:

«Outlook

Palladium production is expected to increase by approximately 5% for the year ended December 31, 2008 with an estimated total production of approximately 300,000 ounces. The proportion of by-product metals produced is, in aggregate, expected to increase in tandem with palladium production.»

Leads me to expect production numbers to be something like the ones in the following table:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44433;image)

Now, if we compare the 2007 average prices with the current price, and if we expect these metal prices to remain where they are for the rest of the year (I expect them to keep rising), this will mean that revenues will rise by 37.6%, or $73.7 M, in 2008 vs 2007.

Considering PAL lost $28.7 M in 2007, you can see that an increase in revenues of $73.7 M will probably bring the company to profitability by a comfortable margin.

I expect PAL to rise back up to the $9 level and eventually surpass this level, if the long term bull market in Palladium continues as I think it will.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy PAL, 6.66% of capital, for the long term.

The succession of profitable trades with PAL makes me think that if I know stocks reasonably well (in technical and fundamental terms) and at the same time maintain an open mind and flexible attitude, I would have a much better performance.

I know what makes stocks move over the next month or two ... but then factors usually change and are somewhat unpredictable.

This isn't to say that I'm getting ready to abandon the long term approach, it is just a recognition that perhaps I need different tools to access the long term prospects for a company. It appears that the best long term investors are the best by employing a strategy that looks to minimize risk, instead of trying to maximize returns.

This trade with PAL started well and I feel my hands a bit stronger now than in the latest trade. The stock made a higher low, now let's see if it can make a higher high above $6.39.

I'll hold PAL.

I want to invest for the long term in PAL, but the market needs to confirm my views. I would be really disappointed and would bail out if the stock were to close below $5.

Anyway, so far so good, I continue to expect a higher high above $6.39.

QuoteThis trade with PAL started well and I feel my hands a bit stronger now than in the latest trade. The stock made a higher low, now let's see if it can make a higher high above $6.39.

Indeed, PAL closed at a higher high yesterday, with volume above average.

$PALL is also showing strength:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44641;image)

I'm expecting much better results when PAL reports Q1. You see, palladium prices are more than 30% higher now than what they averaged in Q4 2007, so this will probably have a material positive effect in PAL's revenues and profits.

Have to hope for a triple bottom at 5.4 or so; otherwise ... $4?

Quote from: buddjas1 on April 14, 2008, 02:49:30 PM
Have to hope for a triple bottom at 5.4 or so; otherwise ... $4?

I think PAL is trading within an ascending channel, as shown in the chart below.

1st quarter results will probably be positive since the products the company sells were up about 30% in price, but the earnings results will be out just in May 12.

Hmm, I see now that Merril Lynch cut estimates for PAL a few days ago. Probably this was the cause for the stock's recent slide >:(

Here's what they wrote:

Steady palladium production expected in 2008

Decreasing 2008, 2009 EPS estimates
After adjusting our financial model for Q4'07 financial results and incorporating company guidance, we are lowering our 2008 and 2009 EPS estimates. For 2008 we now expect EPS of $0.11/share (revised downward from $0.25/share), while for 2009 we are forecasting EPS of $0.24/share (vs. $0.60/share previously). The decrease in EPS is due to a reduction in expected production and higher depreciation expenses.

Relatively flat palladium growth for 2008
For 2008, PDL sees palladium production of 300,000 ozs, up 5% from 2007. Byproduct metals production is forecast to increase in tandem with the higher palladium production (though there is no official forecast). The company also did not provide guidance for cash costs. We are now modeling 2008 palladium output of 300,000 oz (previously 305,000 oz) at total cash costs of $110/oz.

Net asset value estimate decreased
The revisions to our model have had a small impact to our estimated net asset value. Our revised NAV now stands at $4.65/sh ($3.21/share DCF of mining assets and $1.44/share net cash and working capital), down from our previous NAV of $5.00/share. Although trading at only 1.53x cash-adjusted NAV, we believe the stock is fairly valued at this time given the current commodity price environment. Renewed strength in PGM prices and the timely and successful development of the company's proposed growth projects could lead to an expansion in PDL's valuation multiple. We are maintaining our Neutral rating at this time.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44807;image)

Now me:

Not even one word on the fact that Palladium prices rose 30% in Q1 2008 vs Q4 2007.

I'll keep holding PAL for the long term (even though "holding for the long term" has been a poor strategy in most stocks).

On the charts, when the 50 day moving average upward crosses the 200 day moving average, the witch doctor looks for a steady upward movement in stock price. On the other hand, these two lines are merging and may not actually cross.

Bollinger Bands are getting narrow, an indication that a big change is about to happen. My guess late next week.
;)

Hi la-onda, PAL had a higher low, now we need a higher high, above $6.6, to confirm the ascending trend.

QuoteBollinger Bands are getting narrow, an indication that a big change is about to happen. My guess late next week. ;)

Why late next week? Results coming out? Let me see ...

No, just May 12, 2008.

I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL formed a  Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern  :)

Here some news:

North American Palladium Announces First Quarter 2008 Production Results

North American Palladium Ltd. (TSX: PDL)(TSX: PDL.WT)(AMEX: PAL)(AMEX:
PAL.WS) today announced production results for the three month period ending
March 31, 2008.

Highlights for the Quarter

- Total palladium production for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 was 61,091
ounces, a decrease of 22% compared to the same quarter a year ago but in line
with management's expectations.

- Production guidance of 300,000 ounces of palladium in 2008 is reaffirmed.

- Average palladium spot price of US$444 per ounce for Q1 2008 represents a
28% increase over the average spot price of US$346 for Q1 2007.

Results of Operations

For the first quarter of 2008, the Company's Lac des Iles mine produced 61,091
ounces of palladium at an average head grade of 2.20 g/t. This represents a
decrease of 17,714 ounces when compared to the first quarter of 2007, however,
this is in line with management's expectations.

As a result of scheduled maintenance, mill availability was also lower
year-over-year. Mill availability was 89.5% in the first quarter of 2008 versus
94.5% for the same period last year. The additional downtime is expected to
benefit production levels for the balance of 2008. A total of 1,136,568 tonnes
of ore were processed during the first quarter for an average of 12,490 tonnes
per day at a palladium recovery rate of 76.0%, compared to 1,288,540 tonnes or
14,317 tonnes per day at a recovery of 76.6% in the same period last year.

The underground mine continued to deliver consistent results, achieving
planned grade and production. During the quarter, the underground mine averaged
2,093 tonnes of ore per day at a palladium head grade of 5.66 g/t compared to
an average of 2,236 tonnes per day at a palladium head grade of 6.0 g/t in the
same period last year.

Jim Excell, President and Chief Executive Officer had the following comments:
"While our first quarter production results were lower than the same period
last year, this was not unexpected. In addition to planned maintenance, we also
experienced unscheduled maintenance. The decrease in production over the first
quarter of 2007 primarily reflects our mine plan, which anticipated processing
lower grade ore from the open pit. This portion of the pit has now been mined
out and we are now mining from a higher grade area of the open pit where we
expect to remain for the balance of the year."

The Company reaffirmed production guidance of 300,000 ounces of palladium for
2008, an increase of approximately 5% over 2007. The proportion of by-product
metals produced is, in aggregate, expected to increase in tandem with palladium
production.


---------------------------------------------------------
First Quarter
---------------------------------------------------------
Palladium 2008 2007
---------------------------------------------------------
Ore Milled (tonnes) 1,136,568 1,288,540
---------------------------------------------------------
Ore Milled (tpd) 12,490 14,317
---------------------------------------------------------
Head Grade (g/t) 2.20 2.48
---------------------------------------------------------
Recovery (%) 76.0 76.6
---------------------------------------------------------
Mill Availability (%) 89.5 94.5
---------------------------------------------------------
Production (oz) 61,091 78,805
---------------------------------------------------------
By-Product Metals
---------------------------------------------------------
Platinum (oz) 5,029 6,862
---------------------------------------------------------
Gold (oz) 4,405 4,890
---------------------------------------------------------
Nickel (lbs) 759,713 812,385
---------------------------------------------------------
Copper (lbs) 1,343,033 1,370,113
---------------------------------------------------------


North American Palladium has not hedged any of its current or future
production.

About North American Palladium

North American Palladium is one of North America's largest producers of
palladium. The Company's core palladium business at the Lac des Iles mine is
strengthened by a significant contribution from platinum, nickel, gold and
copper by-product metals. The Company is actively progressing its three
advanced exploration projects: the Offset High Grade Zone at its Lac des Iles
Mine, the Shebandowan West Project, located approximately 100 kilometres from
the mine, and the Arctic Platinum Project in Finland. Please visit
www.napalladium.com for more information.




Contacts:
North American Palladium Ltd.
Jim Excell
President and Chief Executive Officer
(416) 360-7971 Ext. 223
Email: [email protected]

North American Palladium Ltd.
Linda Armstrong
Director, Investor Relations
(416) 360-7971 Ext. 226
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.napalladium.com

Someone shot the pigeon  :-\

Thanks for posting the following news Rmagos:

North American Palladium Announces First Quarter 2008 Production Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080422/0389271.html)
Marketwire (Tue 10:10am)

Weak production numbers killed my "good news coming due to higher palladium prices" thesis.

The stock also broke down below my "ascending channel" technical thesis:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45025;image)

Merril Lynch provided an updated analysis and there aren't any catalysts to move the stock higher in the medium term:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45026;image)

Yoy production down on lower Pd grade and mill availability

North American Palladium reported that for Q1'08, palladium production totaled 61,091 oz, while byproduct production of platinum, gold, nickel and copper amounted to 5,029 oz, 4,405 oz, 759,713 lbs and 1.343 million lbs respectively. The company noted that while palladium production was down 22% yoy (from 78,805 oz in Q1'07), it was in-line with company expectations for the quarter.

North American Palladium attributed the decline in yoy production to a number of factors including: reduced mill availability (89.5% vs. 94.5% in Q1'07) because of both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance leading to a decline in ore milled, and lower head grade (2.20 g/tonne vs. 2.48 g/tonne in Q1'07). Management stated that this lower grade ore was expected and in-line with the mine plan for the quarter, and that future mining would be from a higher grade area of the pit.

Reaffirms 2008 palladium guidance

The company reaffirmed that it expects 2008 palladium production of 300,000 oz although it once again declined to provide a cash cost estimate. This implies that production for the remainder of the year would need to average close to 80.000 oz/quarter. To achieve this target, both throughput and grade would need to be substantially higher in our opinion. For 2008, we are modeling palladium production of 300,000 oz at a total cash cost net of byproduct credits of $110/oz.

Q1'08 earnings preview

North American Palladium has not yet provided a reporting date for its Q1'08 earnings release. We are expecting EPS of $0.03/share.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45027;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45028;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45029;image)

Valuation update

Our net asset value (NAV) for North American Palladium stands $4.65/sh ($3.21/share DCF of mining assets and $1.44/share net cash and working capital). Although trading at only 1.2x cash-adjusted NAV, we continue to believe that the stock is fairly valued at this time given the current commodity price environment and development project risk. Renewed strength in PGM prices and the timely and successful development of the company's proposed growth projects could lead to an expansion in PDL's valuation multiple. We are maintaining our Neutral rating at this time.

The only reason I would have to keep on holding PAL is "I'm a long term investor, when I buy, it is for the long term", which is flawed, because I didn't have the right tools or knowledge to do that. Probably it also isn't the best strategy for a small private investor or it doesn't suit my personality.

I opt to take a small loss in PAL at this time. The trading plan for PAL is SELL.

David, I haven't said much lately since I have been very busy in my personal affairs. I know it is a difficult time for you, so I just want to drop a note to say that you have my full support adjusting your strategy. After all, it is the return that matters... Keep your head up!

I am staying in Pal.  Will post when I sell.

Poli

I don't understand this so well, but people in the know say that this is fantastic news:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080429/0391747.html    ;D

To anyone still holding PAL like me,  good earnings report out yesterday after the close.  To all good health and trading. 

poli

North American Palladium(PAL) is an exploration and production company focused on the production of palladium and gold. The company's flagship mines Lac des Iles and Sleeping Giant are located in Ontario and Quebec, respectively.

In the current scenario of growing deficit for the platinum group metals, North American Palladium will likely benefit from increased production going forward, in comparison to counterparts Stillwater Mining(SWC) and Platinum Group Metals(PLG).
Preliminary assessment of the Offset Zone in Lac des lles mine was positive, signaling a production boost. The stock rallied nearly 58.4% since August 24. In comparison, Stillwater Mining and Platinum Group Metals gained 43.6% and 20.0%, respectively, during the same period.
Of the 8 analysts covering North American Palladium, 7 recommend buying and one advised selling.

Strong BreakOut.......
based on QE2, short covering, and dollar sinking.
Gold Silver Palladium appear to be good medium term bets. But this play should be good until Bernanke appears exhausted or deflation appears to be winning.

On Technicals, MA crossover supported by increased volume and dollar down and car sales improving. Russian supplies in question adds another plus.

Technicals
Record Volume
Record Price High
Most Actives
Record Price Break Out
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
16.81%above 13-day MA
30.07%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

PAL will likely continue upward to $7 on this move.
Closing at $5.48 is a new 12 month high.
Also MEA could show a similar run.

The Golden Cross.......