PAL

[babouk]

I appriciate your opininion, Thank you

[David Randolph]

PAL broke down yesterday because Palladium and Nickel prices were falling heavily on the day. But prices are still above the Q1 average and I expect PAL's production to keep rising, so fundamentals are still improving. I also see the palladium and nickel corrections as overdone.

There's a very strong fundamental case for Palladium to keep moving higher:

«Spot palladium prices in the first quarter of 2007 averaged US$346 per oz and ended the quarter near the period's high of US$358 per oz, compared to an average of US$290 per ounce in the first quarter of 2006. The palladium price continues to display consistent strength and momentum as rising confidence in supply/demand fundamentals is fueled by growing global emission legislation and historically significant divergences among platinum group metal prices. In the first quarter of 2007, revenue from palladium sales was recorded at US$352 per ounce compared to the corresponding period in 2006 of US$330 per ounce.»

Currently palladium is trading at $368 an ounce:



I'll continue holding PAL.

[David Randolph]

From what happened in VPHM today I acknowledge that the market knows a lot less than we think when it breaks down technically, because that stock was going down like a stone in a lake, like it was discounting something bad, but no, the market was wrong, good news came out and the stock rallied 7% on the day, coming back above the broken support.

So PAL's technical breakout means zero valid information for me. I continue to believe PAL is the most attractive mining stock trading on the US exchanges (and I've studied quite a lot), so I'll keep holding the stock whatever happens.

[yukiii]

From what happened in VPHM today I acknowledge that the market knows a lot less than we think when it breaks down technically, because that stock was going down like a stone in a lake, like it was discounting something bad, but no, the market was wrong, good news came out and the stock rallied 7% on the day, coming back above the broken support.

So PAL's technical breakout means zero valid information for me. I continue to believe PAL is the most attractive mining stock trading on the US exchanges (and I've studied quite a lot), so I'll keep holding the stock whatever happens.

Whatever happens oh no he's saying it again..... 
VPHM was manipulated down by shorts and now they had to cover on the news, thats all that was.
David you need to understand each sector and how they work. You kind of think each companies value works the same. You made a mistake with PAL just like ROY you need to learn the mining industry. Drug and Energy companies also behave differently.
You sold SILC you said you would hold for years and sell $50+ what happen nothing changed.
Are you going to change your strategy now going forward like I said you should?
You should have sold CIMT and PAL and bought more SILC. You are not doing what you were trying to preach to me to just hold and you will be rewarded. You can't have it both ways. Are your picks going to be long term and hold GIGM to $50 or will you sell if they have a bad quarter. Everytime someone tells you to sell and take profits you say you will keep holding, but when it goes down after you sell.
What's its going to be?   I think you should forget about this long term thing and just buy and sell like on your stocksonvideo.com. The optimal exit price is very misleading and wrong.

Getting back to PAL there were 2 big reasons for the .10 for the first quarter.
1. Price of nickel was high, and it has come down alot.
2. The ore that was mined was a higher concentration.
so going forward it will be very hard to beat the first quarter.
Nickel Price has dropped to $16 from a high of $24. This will hurt profits
Don't know why David thinks this is the best value in the mining industry unless he thinks it will keep growing earnings at the same pace, which they will not. Anyways .30 for the year tops. I would stay away unless you think palladium will jump up this year for some reason.

[DragonAMG]

You should have sold CIMT and GSCP and PAL and bought more SILC. You are not doing what you preach.

Yukii - I think you are dead wrong about CIMT and GSCP.   Back to PAL, do you consider PAL a buy here?

[Terliso]

Whatever happens oh no he's saying it again..... 
VPHM was manipulated down by shorts and now they had to cover on the news, thats all that was.
David you need to understand each sector and how they work. You kind of think each companies value works the same. You made a mistake with PAL just like ROY you need to learn the mining industry. Drug and Energy companies also behave differently.
You sold SILC you said you would hold for years and sell $50+ what happen nothing changed.
Are you going to change your strategy now going forward like I said you should?
You should have sold CIMT and PAL and bought more SILC. You are not doing what you were trying to preach to me to just hold and you will be rewarded. You can't have it both ways. Are your picks going to be long term and hold GIGM to $50 or will you sell if they have a bad quarter. Everytime someone tells you to sell and take profits you say you will keep holding, but when it goes down after you sell.
What's its going to be?   I think you should forget about this long term thing and just buy and sell like on your stocksonvideo.com.

I think we should go back to the old strategy.... I think it is better that way, 3SOF portfolio is well diversified anyway.

BTW, GSCP is a good pick, I bought it the same price with 3SOF.

[jdmark23]

David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

[David Randolph]

David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for your first post

I justified why I sold SILC at SILC's thread. In fact I did it twice. Do I think it was a mistake to sell it? Yes I do.

It is another mistake to join my large mistake family.

Anyway, people that followed my recommendation took a 38% profit, it's not my fault that some bought higher and sold at a loss.

Moreover, the Main Portfolio is up 17% in 2007, which annualized gives me about 40%, above what I expect to deliver over the long term.

Interactivity is good, I welcome it, but too much scrutiny is starting to get on my nerves.

Jesus, I'm getting tired (not because of your post, sorry), I guess I need to take some days off.

See you.

[ygtrdr]

I must say, I don't understand the constant criticism by some of David's management. This is his portfolio is it not? Are you obligated to purchase or sell when he does? I for one have made a lot of money by simply having his picks at my disposal and buying and selling when I choose. I just don't understand why some continually harp on him and remain premium members. It doesn't make sense to me. Why not start your own site if you can do better?

I'd also like to say one of the best parts of this site is the integrity that the owners have shown. The fact that David is around everyday to address questions and take the fire and Ramsburg is easily accesible for technical support is one of the best things about this place.

Anyways, I'll step off my soapbox now.

[realcoolhead]

David, you can take 6 days off actually, Friday through next Wednesday which is market holiday 

Yes, SILC might be a mistake, but I didn't expect you to be perfect, so don't blame yourself too much on it.

Anyway, I wish you have a truely good rest , that is, don't even spend one minute thinking about the market, you deserve it and you need it.

Take care and see in about a week. 

David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for your first post

I justified why I sold SILC at SILC's thread. In fact I did it twice. Do I think it was a mistake to sell it? Yes I do.

It is another mistake to join my large mistake family.

Anyway, people that followed my recommendation took a 38% profit, it's not my fault that some bought higher and sold at a loss.

Moreover, the Main Portfolio is up 17% in 2007, which annualized gives me about 40%, above what I expect to deliver over the long term.

Interactivity is good, I welcome it, but too much scrutiny is starting to get on my nerves.

Jesus, I'm getting tired (not because of your post, sorry), I guess I need to take some days off.

See you.

[jdmark23]

David,

Thanks for the reply and just so you know I really like your site and your interactivity.  Furthermore I very much like the new longer term philosophy you espouse and I guess as much as anything I am not critiquing one particular trade(silc) but rather hoping that you stay strong and steady with your approach.  Enjoy your holiday off.

Jim

[Garoh]

David,

I have not posted yet on your site and have followed along so far and like what you are doing,  however i do think yukii's point about choosing one strategy or the other is valid.  I would much prefer your long term approach and as such i am/was confused by the selling of silc.  I would appreciate any explanation you can give regarding your frame of mind regarding your overall approach and in particular with stocks such as silc.  I also interpreted (perhaps falsely) your last 2 additions as shorter term buys.

thanks,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for your first post

I justified why I sold SILC at SILC's thread. In fact I did it twice. Do I think it was a mistake to sell it? Yes I do.

It is another mistake to join my large mistake family.

Anyway, people that followed my recommendation took a 38% profit, it's not my fault that some bought higher and sold at a loss.

Moreover, the Main Portfolio is up 17% in 2007, which annualized gives me about 40%, above what I expect to deliver over the long term.

Interactivity is good, I welcome it, but too much scrutiny is starting to get on my nerves.

Jesus, I'm getting tired (not because of your post, sorry), I guess I need to take some days off.

See you.

David we are all humans no one is perfect and we do mistakes everytime ..
Here in the stock market is different because you'er dealing with many types of people such as short-medium-long term investors , Daytraders , swing traders and their experience not the same and most of them don't look at a specific news or a stock's action as you can look at it ...

You'er really a hard working person and this is the best site I've  ever seen it's giving me a great help with my investments even though I have more than  15 years experience in the stock market and especially technical experience but I still can make huge mistakes 

No one is perfect David , we do what we can , SILC is not a mistake as i see , you had many factors that saying sell and you acted accordingly by selling this stock ...

Always don't look behind , this is a stock market not your wife 

I had a bad story with a stock (ADSX) I fell in love with this stock for more than 5 months , bought it at 2.22 3 years ago and held it for more than 5 months because I expected good news to come out anytime and the chart looked nice but when I got bored and thought that I would find better stocks and lost faith in this one my hands got very weak and I sold it at 2.21 . next day the stock double and in one month this stock reached 8.55 that's 400% jump 

But I'm happy because there were people that benefit from this stock at least 

but on the other hand I had a good chance for investing in Harlely Davidson company which turned my $2,500 money into $76,000 in 10 years 
and this is the way you'er trying to do , but a few people have patience ...

David take a rest and please come back strong 

[berloga]

  Hats off to David - he's shown good discipline, decisiveness, well taken criticism and honesty. He's not just a good investor, but also a very nice person. Since this site lets us all interact a lot, we spend time here, having a pleasant mentor is extremely important. David really does work for his money and feels a great deal of responsibility.

  Try to find a financial advisor like that anywhere!! Not a chance. Most out there are simply too greedy and think too much of themselves. I think David needs to take at least 4 weeks vacation (most Europeans have at least 5 weeks; US labor law stinks for that matter). We're big boys and girls here, we can cope! 

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the very nice words realcoolhead, jdmark23, Garoh and berloga. This sure was a warm welcome back

Thinking of PAL, we necessarily need to link the investment in the stock to the course of the metal price. I found a very interesting article, which is dated April 2005, which was right on the money and is still valid today:

The Case for Palladium

When the article was written, Palladium was at $193. Today it stands at $368, still way below its all time high of roughly $1,050 per ounce.

The way palladium substitutes platinum, and with China's (especially China, but we could include Russia and India here too, for example) increasing demand for cars and heightened worries about CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, demand for palladium can only rise over the next few years. With a higher palladium price, PAL's net profit margin will expand (PAL produces 5% of the world's palladium consumption) and the stock price must rise accordingly.

Palladium has been trading sideways lately, but holding up better than other metals, so I expect the price to inevitably breakout on the upside sooner rather than later:



I'll continue holding PAL, despite the short term technical weakness. 

[David Randolph]

Nice bounce from PAL, with palladium prices staying basically the same, around the $365 an ounce level.

I admit that I should learn more about valuing mining companies (well, learn more in general), but there are specific industries where specific knowledge applies, not just the more common fundamental analysis theory.

Why? Well, because a mining company isn't just revenues and profits and their trends, it is also about reserves, grades, metal prices and so on.

So I'm going to order the following book, study it and then share the methods with you:

Valuing Mining Companies: A Guide to the Assessment and Evaluation of Assets, Performance, and Prospects

In the meantime I'll keep holding PAL, which, from my common sense fundamental analysis, is one of the most attractive mining companies I've seen.