1. Business Description
GlobalSCAPE (GSCP.OB) is a leading provider of managed and secured file transfer (EFT), wide area file services (WAFS), and continuous data protection software (CDP). Virtually all of the Fortune 100 use GlobalSCAPE products to secure and accelerate their data exchange. GlobalSCAPE's innovative managed file transfer solution, Enhanced File Transfer (EFT), enables all types of organizations to speed and automate the secure storage and movement of their data across the corporate firewall to external entities, and help them comply with government mandates such as HIPAA, Sarbanes-Oxley, and GLBA. GlobalSCAPE's Wide Area File Services (WAFS) deliver transparent, secure file replication that allows companies with branch offices across large geographic distances to replicate files within the corporate firewall to provide local file access speeds to each office, while reducing network utilization and maintaining file coherence and lock semantics. Continuous Data Protection (CDP) is GlobalSCAPE's real-time, continuous data backup solution that assures that any information on the network, even on distributed and remote servers, can be restored from any point in time in event of data loss. GlobalSCAPE is headquartered in San Antonio, TX. For more information, please visit http://www.globalscape.com or call GlobalSCAPE toll-free at 800-290-5054 (US) or 210-308-8267 (international).
2. Recent News
• GlobalSCAPE Reports 60% Growth in 2006 and Expects ''Exciting'' 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070323/20070323005090.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Mar 23)
• GlobalSCAPE Projects Another Record-Breaking Quarter (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070403/20070403005231.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, Apr 3)
• GlobalSCAPE Expands its Relationship with the U.S. Army through Additional Order for Secure Server and SSH Module Licenses (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070503/20070503005724.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu, May 3)
• GlobalSCAPE Introduces the Secure Ad Hoc Transfer Module (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070508/20070508005228.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, May 8 )
• GlobalSCAPE Announces Q1 2007 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070509/20070509006077.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed, May 9)
• GlobalSCAPE Announces $3,000,000 Stock Buyback (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070522/20070522005339.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, May 22)
• GlobalSCAPE Gives Guidance On Record 2nd Quarter Revenues And Earnings (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070601/20070601005481.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Jun 1)
• GlobalSCAPE Boosts Security, Workflow Integration, and Administrative Capabilities with Introduction of Enhanced File Transfer Server 5.0 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070604/20070604005461.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Jun 4)
3. Valuation Model Estimates
3.1. Dilution Factor
GSCP paid $4.61 M in bank loans in Q1 2007. Revenues and net income are growing very fast. And the company announced a $3 M share buyback program. Just because this is an OTCBB traded company I'll put 1.05 as my dilution factor.
3.2. Revenue CAGR
Revenue growth in 2006 was 64%, and in Q2 2007 is expected to be 170% from Q2 2006. The company also released new and exciting software products, one valued at $4,995 and the other at $7,995 (each unit). I'll use 75% as my revenue CAGR estimate, or 1.75.
3.3. Net Profit Margin Estimate
Net profit margin in 2006 was 17.88%. I believe that in Q2, because of that large army order, it will be well over 30%. I guess that 25% is a fair estimate for long term net profit margin, given the current information.
3.4. EPS Multiple Estimate
The Security Software & Services (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=vdsi) industry trades at 35.84 times earnings, and I insert GSCP into that category.
4. Valuation Model
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38114;image)
So, this is another high risk/high reward proposition for the Main Portfolio.
5. Technical Analysis
5.1. Chart since IPO
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38112;image)
I like the fact that the stock is near an all time high.
5.2. Short term chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38113;image)
The short term trend is bullish. Volume is low but it has been above average. Moreover volume has nothing to do with value. Probably it was the low volume that kept this stock undervalued for so long.
6. Overall Conclusion
I love the company's sector, internet file transmission software is red hot now. The market has also been paying high premiums for companies operating in the internet security space. Revenues are growing very strongly and 2007 will be the third year of profits for GSCP.OB. Net profit margin is fat.
My valuation model says the stock may rise 89.8% a year for the next three years, which is extremely attractive. The risks are the fact that this is an OTCBB traded stock (but it seems it is about to go to the AMEX) and sometimes they're only trying to attract investor's money to sell them new shares. But this doesn't seem to be the case, they've been paying their debt and have a strong balance sheet. Also, I know the products, I've used its flagship product, CuteFTP, in the past (probably you did too).
7. Trading Plan
Buy GSCP.OB, 6.66% of capital as always.
David watch out for close below 3.6 today this will lose ground :(
It's very important
- how do you calculate "net profit margin", "dilution factor estimate", "final net profit margin estimate (%)", and the "EPS multiple estimate"
...i've finally had some time to mess around with your analysis spreadsheet and couldn't reconcile those. thanks david!
Ok, I've added just half of the position today, the other half around tomorrow's open.
Quote from: Garoh on June 18, 2007, 09:25:45 AM
David watch out for close below 3.6 today this will lose ground :(
It's very important
Why do you think $3.6 is so important Garoh? Thanks :)
Quote from: kpunarc on June 18, 2007, 09:30:08 AM
- how do you calculate "net profit margin", "dilution factor estimate", "final net profit margin estimate (%)", and the "EPS multiple estimate"
...i've finally had some time to mess around with your analysis spreadsheet and couldn't reconcile those. thanks david!
I don't "calculate" those, they're my four estimates. The white lines of the spreadsheet are my estimates for the future:
1) Dilution factor
2) Revenue CAGR
3) Net profit margin estimate
4) EPS multiple estimate
I use several inputs, like the historical data, press releases, competitor's comparison and others to derive those.
Please, if there's something you don't understand, ask.
Thanks.
David because closing below the open of the second green candle means a bearish way :)
and it couldn't hold the gain .. so it's better to wait for 2 or 3 daily candles to close above this level to consider a bullish trend is real not false ..
It doesn't matter to buy 10 or 20 cents higher when everything's fine :)
It's a good pick David but technical is very important for the entry point
All the news is out on this already, thinly traded, expect a pullback. Volume is going down since news was out. If you notice this was run up on the last 3 days, many postings on various board.
If you look now all of the posting are down to almost 0. target $3.50 on pullback.
Quote from: yukiii on June 18, 2007, 12:36:56 PM
All the news is out on this already, thinly traded, expect a pullback. Volume is going down since news was out.
There will most likely be a pullback, but I think this is just the start of the news. I like this pick a lot. I have been using their products for several years now.
Quote from: Garoh on June 18, 2007, 10:40:38 AM
David because closing below the open of the second green candle means a bearish way :)
and it couldn't hold the gain .. so it's better to wait for 2 or 3 daily candles to close above this level to consider a bullish trend is real not false ..
It doesn't matter to buy 10 or 20 cents higher when everything's fine :)
It's a good pick David but technical is very important for the entry point
I respect your timing strategy Garoh.
Quote from: yukiii on June 18, 2007, 12:36:56 PM
All the news is out on this already, thinly traded, expect a pullback. Volume is going down since news was out. If you notice this was run up on the last 3 days, many postings on various board.
If you look now all of the posting are down to almost 0. target $3.50 on pullback.
hahaha, that's a funny way of analyzing stocks yukiii. "It was up because of the message boards posts, now there are no posts, it will go down". May I remind you that stocks represent companies, companies that have value?
I don't think you took a bit of effort to seriously look at this pick yukiii ... let's see, for example, look at this Q2 guidance:
«GlobalSCAPE announced today, that fueled by the previously announced DOD order, it expects the second quarter revenues to be between $6.2MM and $6.3MM, growth of 170% over 2nd quarter 2006.»
$6.25 M is more than half than 2006 full year revenue. And this is a software company, so expect what, $2.5 M in net income for the quarter? Meaning $10 M for a full year? And how much is the market cap? $66 M. So, how much is the extrapolated forward P/E? 6.6 :o
Let's hear the conference call, here: http://www.globalscape.com/company/ir.aspx
It has a nice historical perspective of the company. GSCP.OB works in a similar space as SILC, the "work from everywhere" trend we've discussed in SILC's thread.
I also enjoyed the future plans of the company, looking at $40 M revenue in 2008. They also confirmed my 25% long term net profit margin. AMEX said the company is great, but the stock price and the market cap is too low. The company should get help in boosting the stock price to move to the AMEX (it just moved!).
This can be a $200 M to $300 M market cap.
According to my valuation model GSCP.OB (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GSCP.OB&portfolio=main) is the second most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), and therefore will replace SILC at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) (I wish I never had replaced NVTL for SILC in that portfolio, but I was pressured to do it and there wasn't a fundamental justification not to).
I'll buy the second half of my position in GSCP.OB and the position for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio around tomorrow's open.
yes, I took a look Old news June 1st
announced today, that fueled by the previously announced DOD order, it expects the second quarter revenues to be between $6.2MM and $6.3MM, growth of 170% over 2nd quarter 2006. "The 2nd quarter will clearly set a net high for us in both revenue and earnings," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "While this quarter's numbers should not be looked at as the new standard, neither should they be seen as a one time thing," continued Poole. "We believe that from time to time orders of this magnitude will occur and become a part of our business model. We certainly plan to work to that end. Whether they come in the form of government requirements or through other endeavors, we believe our products meet a market need at this level."
Company did .09 2005
.12 2006
1st 2007 .03 2nd .07
2007 estimates are .18
If you read between the lines next quarter is a one time thing but they wish it would happen more often.
Company wants to keep the stock over $3.00 to get on the AMEX. The reason I mention the yahoo boards is there was no new news for the stock to jump up the last few days, but the boards were pumping this up and emails flying, and now its silent.
I did not say I don't like it, but you need to wait to see where this settles now. I don't believe the estimates of .30 for the year.
What information can you offer that that everyone does not know a few weeks ago?
I got this back in May in my email.
May 15, 2007
This afternoon I purchased two stocks that I have been tracking for a few months now: Harbin Electric and Globescape. I am in beginning to write up reports on both companies, but in the meantime, I will provide some brief commentary regarding my purchases.
I purchased a large stake in HRBN at $13.20. Harbin is now my largest holding, and I believe it has the potential to be a big performer over the near to medium term. HRBN posted a monster quarter last quarter, and the stock nearly doubled in just about two months. However, since hitting a high of $15, the stock pulled back below the 50 day MA. After two attempts to retake the 50 day MA on heavier volume last week fell short, HRBN has finally managed to retake its 50 day MA in the heaviest trading volume the stock has seen since February. The breakout coincides with news that Harbin was booked to supply electric motors for a major North American auto parts supplier, and I believe the stock is beginning to pick up some momentum. I will get to the fundamentals in an article coming very soon, but with a net cash position of $40 million and a trailing P/E of 13, this stock has room to run from a valuation standpoint.
As per Globescape, I've been tracking this company for some time, and listened to their conference call last night. This is a business which has put up solid numbers for some time, and their recent contract with the Army provides the base for a potentially growing relationship with the DoD. The stock has been selling off post earnings (despite the fact that earnings were in my view pretty solid), and today the stock is really getting hammered for no reason. With the stock down 10%, I've entered a position at $2.25. Today's action is giving me a gift on the price side, and this an opportunity I could not pass up. I will be writing in more detail about GSCP shortly. In the meantime, keep in mind that this is a very thinly traded stock.
Globescape announced this morning that it would repurchase $3 million in stock, or just over 6% of the total shares outstanding. This was one of my recent additions when the stock price dipped to $2.25, and the stock has already had a nice 17% bounce since then. Today's news comes as a bit of a surprise, given that microcap companies seldom buy back their own stock, but those who listened to the GSCP conference call for the first quarter probably picked up on the fact that management was looking to enhance the share price in order to achieve an AMEX listing. It was obvious to everyone that management was frustrated by what they perceived to be an excessively low multiple for a company growing 30%+ per year, and today's action indicates that they are going to take matters into their own hands and move the stock up above the $3 level for an AMEX listing. This is a nice vote of confidence in GSCP shares, and it should put a nice bottom under the stock over the next few months. I still believe this company has big upside if they can procure another big contract with the DoD, and the business seems to be gaining momentum in the last few quarters.
May 23, 2007
We're back after a few technical problems yesterday. Yesterday was a pretty boring day for the market, so I will not bother to look backward too much. My one comment is regarding Globescape's buyback. Essentially, management just said, "We are going to take the stock to $3 and get an AMEX listing." Anyone who listened to the conference call understands that management is really targeting an AMEX listing and that they are going to do what it takes to get there. The buyback is certainly a step in this direction, and I still believe GSCP has significant further upside here as a result. Although I'm sitting on a very nice short term gain, I still believe there is more upside left here, and I'm not selling because I believe that I would be leaving a lot on the table.
«What information can you offer that that everyone does not know a few weeks ago?»
I don't need to offer anything new, just the view that the public information is not yet completely reflected in the share price.
In 2008 we'll probably get $40 M in revenues, with 25% net profit margin that means $10 M in net income. Apply an average P/E of 35 (that's this industry's average) and get a $350 M market cap company.
That means a price per share of $20.
What's the flaw? I don't see one, do you?
Thanks for the article.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 19, 2007, 03:15:10 AM
«What information can you offer that that everyone does not know a few weeks ago?»
I don't need to offer anything new, just the view that the public information is not yet completely reflected in the share price.
In 2008 we'll probably get $40 M in revenues, with 25% net profit margin that means $10 M in net income. Apply an average P/E of 35 (that's this industry's average) and get a $350 M market cap company.
That means a price per share of $20.
What's the flaw? I don't see one, do you?
Thanks for the article.
You are ahead of your self again. They rely on contacts, even the CEO said you can't rely on anything
untill they get the money.
You don't know what 2008 rev will be?
Right now you have a thinly traded company, that has doubled on the news, all you know is next quarter will be great but the 3 and 4th will probably be the same as the first. You always assume the growth rate will be the same as there best quarter going forward even when the CEO only wishes it would. I think its a buy on a pullback, but to rely on a DOD contact every quarter. If I bought this a $2 I would be taking profits and moving on. Buying at $3.8 is tough here.
i think between 2.50 and 3.00 this stock was mainly undiscovered...with the low volume it didnt show up in the filters but someone accumulated in this area. probably the.MM of the stock... the firm planned to bring it to the amex soon ...they are in the progress of buying shares......up from here with a g-pattern...its rarely you see a nice consolidation of 1.5 years...a breakout of this range will not die that fast mostly stocks advance at lot of this kind of charts.......many people doesn know the fundamentals yet...wait for amex confirmation this will be fast at 5++. And stocks that are on nasdaq or amex plus 3.00 will be on the radar. :)
The 3-4 year long term chart looks like a big floor with a 3.00 bottom...now we made the first step out of that.
Article on GSCP you might find interesting.
http://sanantonio.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2007/05/07/story11.html (http://sanantonio.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2007/05/07/story11.html)
QuoteYou always assume the growth rate will be the same as there best quarter going forward even when the CEO only wishes it would. I think its a buy on a pullback, but to rely on a DOD contact every quarter.
I don't rely on that. There's revenue growth without DOD.
It's not me, it was the CEO that talked about $40 M annual revenues and 25% net profit margin, listen to the conference call. Moreover, I know the company's products and I clearly see the need for them.
But you wait for a further pullback, perhaps it will happen ... It's indifferent to me, good luck.
David,
I may be wrong, but i dont share your enthusiasm on this company's long term prospects.
Who will pay for secure email products / file transfer products?
I may be looking at it from a very simplistic viewpoint - But all private individuals are happy to use yahoo / hotmal. Most corporates use their own encryption / PKI built in into their email infrastructure.
They will have a tough time selling their products in my opinion. But let me ask you for another side - do they differentiate their product from all the other encryption software (Entrust for example) out there?
Nick
QuoteWho will pay for secure email products / file transfer products?
Their main products are file sharing products, like CuteFTP. Companies are paying for it, because they can't have pirate software.
QuoteI may be looking at it from a very simplistic viewpoint - But all private individuals are happy to use yahoo / hotmal. Most corporates use their own encryption / PKI built in into their email infrastructure.
They will have a tough time selling their products in my opinion. But let me ask you for another side - do they differentiate their product from all the other encryption software (Entrust for example) out there?
Nick
Well, revenue in 2006 was $10.9 M, and in Q2 2007 it will be $6.25 M or so. So, they're selling. And they've been selling more and more.
You could also say, "who's going to use ONT or DIVX's products?" Yet, those companies have market caps 6 and 8 times larger than GSCP.OB (and less revenues, in ONT's case).
I've used CuteFTP in the past and did not pay for it. But corporations need it and they pay.
I never heard of Entrust ... we all need to dig further on GSCP.OB, but the company is profitable, it has rising revenues and it is cheap (just $66 M market cap). Also, it has a strong balance sheet, just paid more than $4 M in debt.
The reward/risk ratio seems very attractive.
It's nice to have some disagreement, it will make me push harder and go deeper on my analysis. Thanks :)
Entrust is by far the biggest provider of E-mail encryption / PKI.
http://www.entrust.com/
There are a lot of other cos in the secure FTP / encryption space, so unless they offer a specific value proposition, its going to quite challenging for them.
nicknite20,
I respect your opinion but must strongly disagree with your analysis. As the CIO of a major financial institution I can tell you that I have been using their products for years. They provide a secure mechanism for corporate clients to transfer HIPAA compliant information to our company. This is not something you can simply do in house. They also have a very slick secure web product so that users do not have to download a client piece from us. The products they sell have a price point from several hundred to thousands of dollars.
Good pick David!!!!!
Quote from: gowithahunch on June 19, 2007, 09:15:02 PM
nicknite20,
I respect your opinion but must strongly disagree with your analysis. As the CIO of a major financial institution I can tell you that I have been using their products for years. They provide a secure mechanism for corporate clients to transfer HIPAA compliant information to our company. This is not something you can simply do in house. They also have a very slick secure web product so that users do not have to download a client piece from us. The products they sell have a price point from several hundred to thousands of dollars.
Good pick David!!!!!
Their nothing wrong with there product, just how many can they sell and grow. The only question is
will they grow after this next big quarter. The next quarters guidance is key. If they miss a step it will drop back down again. So if you are in don't get greedy and take your profits if it runs up to earnings.
If you hold to after earnings just watch the guidance, if to sell or not. I found a report on GSCP from winter 2005.
Back in 2005 CEO said 2005 would be .15 and 2006 .20 it ran up to $4.00+ then back to $2 after the one big quarter of .08. So CEO has a way of wishing.
Quote from: gowithahunch on June 19, 2007, 09:15:02 PM
nicknite20,
I respect your opinion but must strongly disagree with your analysis. As the CIO of a major financial institution I can tell you that I have been using their products for years. They provide a secure mechanism for corporate clients to transfer HIPAA compliant information to our company. This is not something you can simply do in house. They also have a very slick secure web product so that users do not have to download a client piece from us. The products they sell have a price point from several hundred to thousands of dollars.
Good pick David!!!!!
Thanks for your testimonial gowithahunch :)
Yes, they say the average price of the products they sell is $20,000 now.
QuoteThe only question is will they grow after this next big quarter. The next quarters guidance is key. If they miss a step it will drop back down again.
I disagree with that view yukiii. Everybody that is studying the company knows that Q2 will be very strong but that's because of a one time order, that may or may not be repeated in the future. The CEO said: "we don't expect to get these $3 M orders every quarter, but we do expect to maintain a business relationship with the army that will eventually lead to more business for our company."
I think you're not putting the information into context. GSCP.OB is a $65 M market cap.
QuoteBack in 2005 CEO said 2005 would be .15 and 2006 .20 it ran up to $4.00+ then back to $2 after the one big quarter of .08. So CEO has a way of wishing.
I don't see any $0.08 quarter in GSCP.OB's history. In 2005 they had $0.10 EPS, in 2006 $0.13.
The company had EPS of $0.03 in Q1 2007. This second quarter it can come in at $0.10 or more, it depends on the margin of the following order:
«SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GlobalSCAPE (OTCBB:GSCP - News), leading the market on the integration of Managed File Transfer and Wide Area File Services technologies, today announced it has received a substantial order from the U.S. Army for Secure FTP Server, SSH Module and CuteFTP Professional software licenses, with maintenance, starting at an initial value of $2.5 million in software licenses and $300K in initial maintenance and support revenue. The fully deployed contract has maintenance and support valued at $1 million annually.»
So, I believe 2007 EPS will be at least $0.20.
As for 2008, it depends on the revenue growth, but if one believes the CEO's words, EPS can be around $0.55 (considering 5% dilution), if the company reaches $40 M in revenue with a 25% net profit margin. That would mean the stock is trading at 6.8 times forward earnings.
Maybe the CEO is more optimistic than he should, but nevertheless he has been delivering, maybe not as early as initially thought, but delivering.
My take is what this company needs now is visibility. With the stock trading around $4 now, it will probably be able to move to the AMEX sooner rather than later, and that will bring more visibility to the business and probably a much higher stock price.
I think it represents outstanding value at $65 M market cap. I'll keep holding GSCP.OB with strong hands.
last 3 years earnings
GSCP
GSCP
GLOBALSCAPE INC OTCBB
Learn More About XBRL
Revenue / EPS Summary *
Fiscal Quarter 2007
(Fiscal Year) 2006
(Fiscal Year) 2005
(Fiscal Year)
March
Revenue $3,623(t) $2,414(t) $1,422(t)
EPS 0.03 (3/31/2007) 0.03 (3/31/2006) 0.01 (3/31/2005)
Dividends N/A N/A N/A
June
Revenue $2,445(t) $1,819(t)
EPS 0.04 (6/30/2006) 0.04 (6/30/2005)
Dividends N/A N/A
September
Revenue $2,603(t) $1,723(t)
EPS 0.03 (9/30/2006) -0.04 (9/30/2005)
Dividends N/A N/A
December (FYE)
Revenue $3,510(t) $1,713(t)
EPS 0.02 (12/31/2006) 0.08 (12/31/2005)
Dividends N/A N/A
Totals
Revenue $3,623(t) $10,973(t) $6,678(t)
EPS 0.03 0.12 0.09
Dividends N/A N/A N/A
Your table is weird yukiii, I'm sorry but I don't understand it very well. Why don't you share a link instead? Thanks.
I think I've covered the essential of the fundamentals of GSCP.OB. What I would like to do next is to study the risks to my forecasts. Yes, let's do that, probably it's a good practice, not just for this pick, but for all others, present and future.
Unfortunately today I had personal issues to take care and got to this update quite late in the day. So I'll do it over the next updates.
Technically GSCP.OB continues to consolidate recent gains. I believe another powerful leg up can happen anytime, because the stock is just too cheap here and 2nd quarter results will be outstanding! (not many people interested in selling before the big EPS news).
Quote from: David Randolph on June 21, 2007, 08:28:28 AM
Your table is weird yukiii, I'm sorry but I don't understand it very well. Why don't you share a link instead? Thanks.
I think I've covered the essential of the fundamentals of GSCP.OB. What I would like to do next is to study the risks to my forecasts. Yes, let's do that, probably it's a good practice, not just for this pick, but for all others, present and future.
Unfortunately today I had personal issues to take care and got to this update quite late in the day. So I'll do it over the next updates.
Technically GSCP.OB continues to consolidate recent gains. I believe another powerful leg up can happen anytime, because the stock is just too cheap here and 2nd quarter results will be outstanding! (not many people interested in selling before the big EPS news).
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/RevenueEPSSummary.aspx?&symbol=gscp&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=gscp (http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/RevenueEPSSummary.aspx?&symbol=gscp&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=gscp)
Thanks yukiii.
I really enjoy GSCP's products:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38327;image)
Also, the way they paid their debts early shows a lot of confidence in the future:
«During the three months ended March 31, 2007, the Company generated $1.1 million of cash from operations, which was used along with other funds in the early payoff of the term loan from the Availl acquisition. We continue to generate cash in excess of our operational needs.
The Company entered into a loan agreement with Silicon Valley Bank on September 22, 2006 which involved a $5,000,000 term loan agreement which we used to finance part of the cash portion of the purchase price for Availl. The term loan has been fully repaid as of March 31, 2007.»
In six months they paid the loan.
I'll keep holding GSCP.OB.
I got in yestreday at 3.80 half of my position and looking forward to buy the other half anytime soon if it reaches my price
;D
whats your price
GSCP's website (www.globalscape.com) is very well prepared for international sales, because it automatically sees that I'm Portuguese and presents all content in Portuguese language (just a problem with this, I can't copy/paste information to post here ;D).
Not considering the future potential, GSCP's historical revenue growth rate is 50% a year and its industry average revenue growth is just 23%. Yet, GSCP.OB trades at 25 times forward earnings and its industry trades at 44 times earnings.
GSCP.OB should jump to $6 plus immediately, just based on its past fundamental trends and comparisons with its industry peers.
But the future looks even better in my opinion. I see 5% dilution a year, 75% revenue CAGR, 25% net profit margin and a 35 times earnings multiple, and that means a $26.24 stock three years from now.
Yet, the future can happen sooner rather than later, especially if we start getting more mammoth orders from the US army, like the following:
• GlobalSCAPE Expands its Relationship with the U.S. Army through Additional Order for Secure Server and SSH Module Licenses (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070503/20070503005724.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu, May 3)
I'll keep holding GSCP.OB.
GlobalScape is probably my single best idea right now. I'll keep holding the stock, expecting it to make a bullish breakout.
GSCP.OB continues to consolidate in the $3.7 - $3.95 area. Two catalysts may push it higher anytime soon:
• GlobalSCAPE Announces $3,000,000 Stock Buyback (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070522/20070522005339.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, May 22)
The company makes it happen by buying back shares causing a bullish breakout of the current congestion area.
Or else ...
"I am disappointed that we have not added the large order discussed earlier, or the AMEX listing yet, but we believe both continue in process by the relevant parties. I must also add that nothing is assured until you have it in hand," he noted.
They already delivered the large US Army order. AMEX is next?
I guess that with the share price comfortably above $3 everything is set for an AMEX listing.
Anyway, even if these two catalysts don't happen, valuation is still quite supportive and the stock will eventually breakout to new highs, in my view.
GSCP.OB is still going through this consolidation period. But it has been holding fairly well, near the highs. Any day now we can get a beautiful white marubozu to new highs, since we know there are good news ahead, either the AMEX listing or the 2nd quarter results.
I'll keep holding GSCP.OB.
you think the 'future news' is already priced in?
Quote from: kpunarc on June 28, 2007, 08:42:49 AM
you think the 'future news' is already priced in?
Today looks like a good day to pick some up... down .37 on no volume.
Quote from: kpunarc on June 28, 2007, 08:42:49 AM
you think the 'future news' is already priced in?
Well, both the AMEX listing and the 2nd quarter revenue guidance were already released, so perhaps that's priced in, in terms of public knowledge and reaction, since the stock is 21% above where it was one month ago. But I believe the news should warrant a much higher share price.
As for the real future, that is, one to two years from now, the CEO said (and I believe, because I know the company's products) the company is set to achieve $40 M in revenues and sport a 25% net profit margin, which means $10 M net income. Since the current market cap is $64 M, the stock is trading at 6.4 times forward earnings, which is extremely attractive.
I'll keep holding GSCP.OB.
awesome :o :o
cheers
Oliver
GlobalScape awaits listing on American Stock Exchange
Web Posted:
07/05/2007 01:17 AM CDT
When Randy Poole applied to have his small San Antonio software company added to the American Stock Exchange last year, he expected to perform the ceremonial ringing of the bell on his first trading day by May.
Two months later, Poole's GlobalScape Inc. is still waiting to get a launch date. Poole, the company's CEO, expects to receive notice this week.
The delay reveals how hard it can be for a small, thinly traded company to transition to the three main U.S. stock exchanges. For GlobalScape, it is rooted in how few investors own the company's stock.
"We couldn't keep the price above $3. It's one of the reasons we are so desperate to get off the bulletin boards," Poole said.
In December, GlobalScape submitted an application to move from the over-the-counter market to the American Stock Exchange. The company had $11 million in annual revenue. It has more than 60 employees and expects to hit $20 million in revenue this year.
Most U.S. exchanges require a company to meet minimums for pretax income, market size, the amount of stock available for trades and the price. Normally, tech companies join the tech-heavy Nasdaq small-company exchange.
Poole picked the Amex because, he said, "it was easier" to qualify: It will accept a company if its stock trades at $3 per share, while Nasdaq requires $4 per share.
That threshold was important because GlobalScape's stock price tended to bounce around, staying above $3 a share no more than a few days at a time.
The stock has 8,000 shareholders but just 6.3million shares available and so is thinly traded, Poole said. Investors traded an average 113,105 shares each day for the past year, according to Yahoo Finance. Because they have so few shareholders, over-the-counter stocks — often called penny stocks — are prone to wide fluctuations, so most financial advisers shun them.
"We just don't recommend them," said Luci Harty, certified financial planner at Investment Professionals Inc. "They are more volatile than other stocks. My clients are more conservative about their investments."
GlobalScape's listing was also delayed by staffing shortages in the Amex department that reviews listing applications. It has about five employees when fully staffed. The department conducts background checks on hundreds of board executives listed in applications each year.
"The exchange looks at the credentials of board members to ensure themselves that these people are independent," said Marc I. Steinberg, who teaches securities law as the Radford professor of law at Southern Methodist University. "Whether they are insiders or outsiders is a major corporate governance issue."
Amex officials declined to comment on "nonpublic information" and "specific companies that are going through the listing process."
Still, Poole now thinks his wait is nearly over.Investors began pushing up GlobalScape's stock price after the company announced last month that it expected a 170 percent increase in revenue for the second quarter and had upgraded its software. Meanwhile, Poole went on a road show to promote the company to large investors.
As a result, GlobalScape's stock price on June 4 jumped above $3, where it has remained. The stock closed at $3.75 a share Tuesday.
Amex officials told GlobalScape executives last week that the stock price is now considered "stabilized" and they should receive a launch date during the next few days, Poole said. http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/stories/MYSA070507.13A.BIZglobalscape.25504a8.html
Thanks for posting the news la-onda :)
It seems like management delivers on its promises. They said they would get a huge order from the US Army, and they did. They said they would go to the AMEX, and it looks like that's about to happen.
Now a slight detail. They said "$17.5 M revenue guidance for 2007" and now the CEO slipped ...
«It has more than 60 employees and expects to hit $20 million in revenue this year.»
Management also said "$40 M in revenue with 25% net profit margin for 2008", that is, $10 M net income, which at a $64 M market cap means a forward earnings multiple of 6.4.
Will management deliver on the 2008 expectations? I think it will, because I know the company's products and the recent fundamental trends.
GSCP is a business that could trade at 30 times earnings, not 6.4. If they make $10 M net income next year and the stock trades at 30 times earnings, it will then be a $300 M market cap company or a $17.3 stock.
Insiders bought options at $3.1, so the downside is quite limited, while the upside is huge, in my view. I'll continue holding GSCP.OB, soon to be GSCP.
It seems not many people paid attention to that www.mysanantonio.com article la-onda, since there were just 16,300 shares changing hands on Friday. Anyway, the real news of the AMEX listing is coming, so there will be a nice press release to put highlights on GSCP.OB.
I'm thinking about that $20 M revenue mark for 2007. In Q1 the company had $3.623 M in revenue. For Q2 it gave guidance of $6.25 M, so the first half will book about $9.873 M. This means management expects to achieve roughly $5 M a quarter for the remainder of the year, which is above the previous average and 40% above the Q1 2007 number. This is a clue that the very strong Q2 2007 won't be an isolated event.
Now let's think a bit about profits. In Q1 2007, net income was $473 K. In Q2 2007, if we apply a 25% net profit margin, it will be $1.56 M. And applying the same net profit margin of 25%, second half net income will be something like $2.5 M. This gives me 2007 total net income of $4.533 M.
GSCP.OB currently has a market cap of $64.6 M, so it appears to be trading at 14.25 times 2007 earnings. As for 2008, if there's 100% revenue growth to $40 M and the 25% net profit margin is maintained, the stock is trading at 6.4 times earnings as we've seen.
GSCP.OB industry (according to Yahoo Finance) trades at 33 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GSCP.OB).
I'll continue holding GSCP.OB.
Nobody is paying attention to GSCP.OB news or fundamentals. Investors will only react when they're hit with a sledgehammer in their heads. I don't have a problem with that.
Clearly fundamentals are improving, right here, right now. Let's take the 2nd quarter results, for example, that will soon be announced. The company gave revenue guidance of between $6.2 M and $6.3 M (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070601/20070601005481.html?.v=1).
The US Army order was a $2.5 M order (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070503/20070503005724.html?.v=1). So, without it 2nd quarter revenues would be roughly $3.75 M, which represents 53.37% growth from Q2 2006.
But just 3.5% growth from Q1 2007 revenue number of $3.623 M.
I wonder if GSCP.OB won't beat its revenue guidance for the 2nd quarter.
It's hard to know the magnitude of the improvement, but I think it is obvious that this very profitable and fast growing internet company is worth a lot more than $64 M.
I'll hold GSCP.OB whatever happens to the chart.
Sounds like good news for GSCP.OB, partnering with a $1 B value company:
• Synteras Partners with GlobalSCAPE to Provide Secure Data Management Solutions to Enterprise and Government Customers (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070710/20070710005262.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 7:00am)
Let's see if there's any reaction to the news, that hasn't happen lately with GSCP.OB, as the stock continues in its consolidation phase.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 10, 2007, 08:56:19 AM
Sounds like good news for GSCP.OB, partnering with a $1 B value company:
• Synteras Partners with GlobalSCAPE to Provide Secure Data Management Solutions to Enterprise and Government Customers (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070710/20070710005262.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 7:00am)
Let's see if there's any reaction to the news, that hasn't happen lately with GSCP.OB, as the stock continues in its consolidation phase.
No, still no meaningful reaction to good news from GSCP.OB, as the stock keeps consolidating its recent bullish move. Anyway, the stock went up 0.54%, while the general market tanked 1.5%, so, not bad.
I'll keep on holding GSCP.OB.
very Bullish now , next target 4.90 if we close abovve 4 :)
hey randolph this thing is waking up.. >:D patience might pay off...i came back loaded up today...lets see 8)
Quote from: Garoh on July 11, 2007, 11:43:32 AM
very Bullish now , next target 4.90 if we close abovve 4 :)
yeah, GSCP.OB did it :)
Quote from: ket1390 on July 11, 2007, 12:07:42 PM
hey randolph this thing is waking up.. >:D patience might pay off...i came back loaded up today...lets see 8)
Today? That means you weren't holding prior to today?
You're right about patience paying off, and GSCP.OB provides us a nice lesson about patience, since over the past three to four weeks there were several positive news releases out and nothing happened. Today, without any news, the stock pushed 12.63% higher :o
It goes to show how stocks, especially micro cap stocks, work.
Fundamentally Globalscape is a stock to own for the long term.
news ;)
cheers
Oliver
GSCP: Anderson Starts @ Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $8; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, July 11, 2007 10:19ET
Issuer: GlobalSCAPE Inc (OTCBB: GSCP)
Analyst Firm: Anderson & Strudwick
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $8.00
Analyst Comments: According to the firm, GSCP has applied for listing on the AMEX in 12/06 and believes listing is close at hand. The company then has plans at some point to move to the NASDAQ Capital Market. Based on the company's guidance of $20 million in revenues for 2007 and plans of continued 40% internal growth, they believe that the stock could trade to the $8 range in the next 12 months, or 25X their 33c taxed EPS estimate for 2008.
Quote from: la-onda on July 11, 2007, 07:47:30 PM
news ;)
cheers
Oliver
GSCP: Anderson Starts @ Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $8; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, July 11, 2007 10:19ET
Issuer: GlobalSCAPE Inc (OTCBB: GSCP)
Analyst Firm: Anderson & Strudwick
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $8.00
Analyst Comments: According to the firm, GSCP has applied for listing on the AMEX in 12/06 and believes listing is close at hand. The company then has plans at some point to move to the NASDAQ Capital Market. Based on the company's guidance of $20 million in revenues for 2007 and plans of continued 40% internal growth, they believe that the stock could trade to the $8 range in the next 12 months, or 25X their 33c taxed EPS estimate for 2008.
You had to spoil my lesson/argument ;D
So this was the cause, an analyst recommendation? It is a lot less interesting, but I appreciate 12.6% in any given day, nevermind the cause ;)
That's all GSCP needed to push higher ... promotion. The story is awesome. Now it just needs to be spread.
Thanks for the news la-onda ... come on, how do you get all these news about analyst's recommendations, what's your source? Thanks again.
Yes me too , can you give us your source? :)
I am getting my information via knobias.com
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=gscp
lots of good information imho
cheers
Oliver
Quote from: la-onda on July 11, 2007, 09:27:11 PM
I am getting my information via knobias.com
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=gscp
lots of good information imho
cheers
Oliver
Thanks for the source , but how much do you pay them ?
knobias+PLUS
knobias RAiDAR
morning+PLUS
Which one you'er subscribing to ?? :)
If you use my link and type in different company stock symbols it is for FREE 8)
David this stie has very nice info on any stock :
http://www.knobias.com
look at this financial summary
Quote from: Terliso on June 27, 2007, 11:55:33 PM
GSCP is a good pick, I bought it the same price with 3SOF. ;)
GSCP is very bullish, we might see $6 in the horizon....why not... T3ML on the move! ;D
Quote from: David Randolph on July 11, 2007, 07:27:32 PM
Quote from: Garoh on July 11, 2007, 11:43:32 AM
very Bullish now , next target 4.90 if we close abovve 4 :)
yeah, GSCP.OB did it :)
Quote from: ket1390 on July 11, 2007, 12:07:42 PM
hey randolph this thing is waking up.. >:D patience might pay off...i came back loaded up today...lets see 8)
Today? That means you weren't holding prior to today?
You're right about patience paying off, and GSCP.OB provides us a nice lesson about patience, since over the past three to four weeks there were several positive news releases out and nothing happened. Today, without any news, the stock pushed 12.63% higher :o
It goes to show how stocks, especially micro cap stocks, work.
Fundamentally Globalscape is a stock to own for the long term.
david...i am not the type to hold stocks long time....my first trade was 3.45 in out at 3.80....waited for an end of the consolidation....was planning weeks ago to re-enter at 4.00 what i did yesterday....i better play it save to buy the breakout and to pay 5% more instead of holding at 3.80 and probably loosing my gains.....now i will hold a bit longer i think to 5 or 6 dollar depends on the action here.
cheers ket
more details from the analysts
http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/research_report_pages/07.07-09_GlobalSCAPE_Inc.pdf
Quote from: ket1390 on July 12, 2007, 08:13:51 AM
more details from the analysts
http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/research_report_pages/07.07-09_GlobalSCAPE_Inc.pdf
Great info ket, thanks a lot :)
I love it when they compare companies with RVBD, because that one trades at a stratospheric valuation!
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38875;image)
Lots of juice in that report for the next update, I can't wait to do it!
From what we read here ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38915;image)
We see that the company's rapid growth engine now is WAFS and CDP products. Now, what the hell is WAFS and CDP?
«Through Availl Inc. (Availl), our wholly-owned subsidiary which we acquired in September 2006, we also provide Wide-Area Files Systems (WAFS) and Continuous Data Protection (CDP) software. This addition expands GlobalSCAPE's technology base into data replication, acceleration of file transfer, sharing/collaboration and continuous data backup and recovery. We believe that our expanded product offering uniquely positions us to provide comprehensive, secure transfer, sharing, and replication of files that need to be transmitted inside the user's firewall to distributed offices, or outside the user's firewall to business and trading partners.»
Sounds good, but we see the growth in this area came from an acquisition.
Now this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38916;image)
TMWD is a $125.2 M market cap which lost ($6.74 M) over the last four quarters.
RVBD is a $3.18 B market cap which lost ($8.3 M) over the last four quarters.
PKTR is a $301 M market cap which earned $4.89 M over the last four quarters.
GSCP.OB is a $71 M market cap which is expected to earn $4.5 M in 2007 (and made money over the last four quarters, but I don't have the exact number here, roughly $2 M).
These analysts are expecting GSCP.OB to make $0.26 in 2007, which I agree. But they expect just $0.33 for 2008, which I disagree, I expect a lot more. If the company delivers $10 M net income in 2008 (25% net profit margin on $40 M revenue after a 100% revenue growth rate from 2007 levels - growth in 2007 is expected to be 82%), that will mean $0.58 EPS for 2008, not $0.33.
Applying the same multiple they did, of 25 times earnings, I get a price per share of $14.5 for 2008, not $8. But, of course, they're being conservative.
GSCP.OB is an extremely attractive stock to own at this point, no doubt about it. I'll keep holding.
Just thinking about 2007, where GSCP.OB is expected to make $0.26 EPS, if the stock were to trade at the Internet Service Providers (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=GSCP.OB) industry average PER, it would close the year at $0.26*36.81 = $9.57.
Not bad.
But, for example, if we consider RVBD's 2007 earnings multiple of 82.2, then GSCP.OB would close the year at $21.37 :o
It just goes to show how valuations in this Wide Area File Sharing (WAFS) space are red hot now.
I'll continue holding GSCP.OB with strong hands, it appears the bull run is just starting.
David,
GSCP has been listed on the naked short list.What does this mean.Check it out on the Knobias website..
Quote from: jimsaav on July 15, 2007, 01:15:22 AM
David,
GSCP has been listed on the naked short list.What does this mean.Check it out on the Knobias website..
It means that some people sold shares short, even though they couldn't borrow shares to do it. That probably happened because GSCP.OB is relatively illiquid, but it doesn't mean anything from a fundamental standpoint.
Let me know if you have further doubts.
Nothing changed in GSCP.OB, I'll keep holding the stock.
David please check this announcement about listing at the amex
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000110465907054311/a07-19635_18a12b.htm
Quote from: eyalgo on July 17, 2007, 05:20:34 PM
David please check this announcement about listing at the amex
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000110465907054311/a07-19635_18a12b.htm
GSCP is registering its shares on the AMEX. I expect them to issue a press release announcing the fact (but it's not really necessary).
I also enjoyed this:
«At July 16, 2007, there were 17,232,256 shares of GlobalSCAPE common stock issued and outstanding.»
Which is almost the same as:
«As of March 22, 2007 there were 17,225,226 shares of common stock outstanding.»
I'll keep holding GSCP, the best is yet to come.
>:D >:D >:D >:D >:D
GlobalSCAPE to List on the American Stock Exchange Under the Symbol ''GSB''
Wednesday July 18, 8:00 am ET
SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GlobalSCAPE (OTCBB:GSCP - News) announced today that the company has been approved for listing on the American Stock Exchange. The approval is contingent upon the Company being in compliance with all applicable listing standards on the date it begins trading on the Exchange, and may be rescinded if the Company is not in compliance with such standards. The company will trade under the symbol "GSB". Trading is expected to begin when the market opens on Thursday, July 19, 2007.
"This is an exciting new chapter for all of us at GlobalSCAPE," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "We've looked forward to being listed by AMEX for some time, and are very excited about sharing our story with a much larger group of investors."
Thanks for posting the news La-Onda. We already knew the news was coming, and yet it had a 7.87% impact on the share price. It goes to show how inefficient the market can be. Nice ;)
It looks like I have to change the title on this thread, "OB with strong fundamentals: GSCP.OB" doesn't seem appropriate anymore. Fundamentals were indeed too strong for the "OB" ;D
I'll change it for tomorrow's update.
I'll keep holding GSCP.OB, now GSB.
Right on! we are up 30% ;)
Quote from: Terliso on July 20, 2007, 12:15:18 AM
Right on! we are up 30% ;)
Yep, GSB is a terrific holding, it was ket1390 that alerted me for it, perhaps he saw it in one of your charts ;) ... not just the chart, fundamentals are also very attractive as we've seen, so we've had a double confirmation on the attractiveness of the stock.
I'm glad to see there are no .OB's in the Main Portfolio, not anymore, somehow it gives more credibility to the service ;D
I'll keep holding GSB, the best is yet to come.
I wonder when will GSB report 2nd quarter earnings, probably it will be around August 15th. Anyway, we already know there will be good news there, since the company gave a $6.2 M - $6.3 M revenue guidance, which is going to be a quarterly record.
I'll keep letting the profits run on GSB.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 20, 2007, 06:02:08 AM
Quote from: Terliso on July 20, 2007, 12:15:18 AM
Right on! we are up 30% ;)
Yep, GSB is a terrific holding, it was ket1390 that alerted me for it, perhaps he saw it in one of your charts ;) ... not just the chart, fundamentals are also very attractive as we've seen, so we've had a double confirmation on the attractiveness of the stock.
no it had nothing to do with terliso ...i found it on my otcbb filterprogram...and i saw the excellent 3y chart..but i knew you like good fundamentals so i smelled the opportunity as i saw the special balcance sheet also.
Quote from: ket1390 on July 22, 2007, 08:02:13 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on July 20, 2007, 06:02:08 AM
Quote from: Terliso on July 20, 2007, 12:15:18 AM
Right on! we are up 30% ;)
Yep, GSB is a terrific holding, it was ket1390 that alerted me for it, perhaps he saw it in one of your charts ;) ... not just the chart, fundamentals are also very attractive as we've seen, so we've had a double confirmation on the attractiveness of the stock.
no it had nothing to do with terliso ...i found it on my otcbb filterprogram...and i saw the excellent 3y chart..but i knew you like good fundamentals so i smelled the opportunity as i saw the special balcance sheet also.
Applaud Ket for finding and bringing this to David's attention! ;D
Quote from: tokyopua on July 23, 2007, 08:28:00 AM
Quote from: ket1390 on July 22, 2007, 08:02:13 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on July 20, 2007, 06:02:08 AM
Quote from: Terliso on July 20, 2007, 12:15:18 AM
Right on! we are up 30% ;)
Yep, GSB is a terrific holding, it was ket1390 that alerted me for it, perhaps he saw it in one of your charts ;) ... not just the chart, fundamentals are also very attractive as we've seen, so we've had a double confirmation on the attractiveness of the stock.
no it had nothing to do with terliso ...i found it on my otcbb filterprogram...and i saw the excellent 3y chart..but i knew you like good fundamentals so i smelled the opportunity as i saw the special balcance sheet also.
Applaud Ket for finding and bringing this to David's attention! ;D
thanks tokyopua ;D
QuoteApplaud Ket for finding and bringing this to David's attention! ;D
Yes, applaud Ket1390 for this great suggestion :)
I only reveal the username of the person that gave me the suggestion after the pick went well, because when they go south I want to take the whole responsibility.
GSB went down 6.8% today, which is a healthy correction that I welcome. We don't want a sudden hype to damage the long term bull run of this magnificent stock/company.
We'll probably close the year in the $8-$10 area in my view.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 23, 2007, 06:44:20 PM
We'll probably close the year in the $8-$10 area in my view.
That would be lovely.. he he he ;D
Everybody that took advantage of yesterday's sell off to buy GSB did very well in my view. No doubts the fundamental landscape is very attractive as one can read on this thread.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
GSB is having a correction, similar to the one that happened in June (in percentage terms) but I believe that over the long term the stock will continue to climb, so I'll keep holding it.
that really bytes!!! :'(
hopefully that is just a little short short term noise.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 26, 2007, 07:28:24 AM
that really bytes!!! :'(
hopefully that is just a little short short term noise.
pinoleropuro next time when you want to buy a stock let us know ;D
just kidding :)
4.25 should be a strong support and expect a good bounce soon .. If the market helps
Press Release Source: GlobalSCAPE
GlobalSCAPE Joins the PCI Security Standards Council
Wednesday July 25, 8:00 am ET
SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB - News), leading the market in the integration of Managed File Transfer and Wide Area File Services technologies, today announced the company has been accepted as a Participating Organization of the PCI Security Standards Council.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070725/20070725005120.html?.v=1
Quote from: Garoh on July 26, 2007, 08:54:27 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 26, 2007, 07:28:24 AM
that really bytes!!! :'(
hopefully that is just a little short short term noise.
pinoleropuro next time when you want to buy a stock let us know ;D
just kidding :)
4.25 should be a strong support and expect a good bounce soon .. I the market helps
I may just have to 'cuz this is not working for me. :)
Thanks.
It's incredible, but GSB came off to touch the $4 support, prior resistance, and the ascending trendline. It represents great value in this area, and I hope that people that are still out take advantage of this golden opportunity.
If GSB keeps respecting that trendline it will be at about $14 a year from now (because the ascending trendline rises 0.03891 per trading day). That's all we need. I'll continue holding GSB through all ups and downs.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 27, 2007, 05:10:56 AM
It's incredible, but GSB came off to touch the $4 support, prior resistance, and the ascending trendline. It represents great value in this area, and I hope that people that are still out take advantage of this golden opportunity.
If GSB keeps respecting that trendline it will be at about $14 a year from now (because the ascending trendline rises 0.03891 per trading day). That's all we need. I'll continue holding GSB through all ups and downs.
David I think I was a support for the stock at 4.01 ;D
Got half of my order filled .... I put this order a week ago but I wasn't sure it will reach it 100%
QuoteDavid I think I was a support for the stock at 4.01 Grin
Got half of my order filled .... I put this order a week ago but I wasn't sure it will reach it 100%
Great timing Garoh :)
The stock bounced from support, as it should ... still five months to go before the year closes, more than enough time for GSB to move towards the $8 - $10 range.
GSB's bull trend continues, as expected. I think it won't take long for GSB to be around the $6 level.
it was doing so good I wonder what happened? ???
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 31, 2007, 04:37:24 PM
it was doing so good I wonder what happened? ???
The general market turned south when American Home Mortgage (AHM) plummeted 89%, after saying it couldn't fund its loans anymore and was considering liquidating its assets:
Rally spoiled by subprime, oil (http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/31/markets/markets_445/index.htm?postversion=2007073117)
This has nothing to do with GSB or its business, but some people had some profits to take ... and then the stock got a bit of bearish momentum. You know, it's a short term game.
Longer term I believe GSB, being in the Wide Area File Sharing (WAFS) market, can only go up.
GSB was able to hold the ascending trendline on close, even though just barely. I expect the medium term bull trend to continue, but Ill hold GSB whatever happens to the chart, because I trust the fundamentals of the company.
GSB rose a bit yesterday, still above the ascending trendline, as it should be. It's interesting to note that the company is displaying its WAFS services on its website now:
http://www.cuteftp.com/
"Reduce bandwidth used up to 95% between branch offices" seems like a nice slogan.
I just love GSB, this is one of those that I'll keep for good.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 03, 2007, 06:28:07 AM
I just love GSB, this is one of those that I'll keep for good.
So do I, ;D .... GSB touched the trendline and bouncing from it.
QuoteSo do I, ;D .... GSB touched the trendline and bouncing from it.
Yeah, but yesterday the stock closed slightly below the ascending trendline. However, whatever technical or short term fundamental developments GSB may have, it is a stock that I'm prepared to hold through all ups and downs, as a long term investment.
GSB is going to report earnings on Monday Aug 13 ater the close followed by a conference call.
Hopefully, it will positive enough to get us above 5 and beyond.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070807/20070807005383.html?.v=1
Quote from: eggman11 on August 07, 2007, 11:30:32 AM
GSB is going to report earnings on Monday Aug 13 ater the close followed by a conference call.
Hopefully, it will positive enough to get us above 5 and beyond.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070807/20070807005383.html?.v=1
Hi eggman11, nice to see you :)
I have the same expectation as you do. No doubt there will be very good news out on Monday (the company already gave very strong guidance due to a DoD deal), we'll just have to see how the market reacts to the news.
I will also be interested in knowing more about the future at the conference call, specifically about how the WAFS business is doing and its prospects and if we can expect more big deals with the DoD or other governmental institutions.
Almost no volume yesterday. I'll keep holding GSB.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 08, 2007, 08:20:52 AM
Quote from: eggman11 on August 07, 2007, 11:30:32 AM
GSB is going to report earnings on Monday Aug 13 ater the close followed by a conference call.
Hopefully, it will positive enough to get us above 5 and beyond.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070807/20070807005383.html?.v=1
Hi eggman11, nice to see you :)
I have the same expectation as you do. No doubt there will be very good news out on Monday (the company already gave very strong guidance due to a DoD deal), we'll just have to see how the market reacts to the news.
I will also be interested in knowing more about the future at the conference call, specifically about how the WAFS business is doing and its prospects and if we can expect more big deals with the DoD or other governmental institutions.
Almost no volume yesterday. I'll keep holding GSB.
Is it common for this stock to have days of no volume? And in general terms, does that indicate anything about the quality of the stock? Just curious. Thanks!
Quote from: David Randolph on August 07, 2007, 05:09:20 AM
QuoteSo do I, ;D .... GSB touched the trendline and bouncing from it.
Yeah, but yesterday the stock closed slightly below the ascending trendline. However, whatever technical or short term fundamental developments GSB may have, it is a stock that I'm prepared to hold through all ups and downs, as a long term investment.
My trendline is still intact... ;)
I adjusted my trendline a little bit, omitted the long wicked candle from last May.
QuoteMy trendline is still intact... ;)
I adjusted my trendline a little bit, omitted the long wicked candle from last May.
Good idea, adding some flexibility to the chart. I'll do the same with my chart.
On a fundamental note, I wonder if next Monday news will be enough for GSB to breakout above the $5.25 horizontal resistance level. That sure would be nice, for the stock to accomplish the closing of 2007 in the $8 - $10 range.
I'll adjust my fundamental estimates when we get the results ... I'm just a bit afraid that the market won't be paying 35.84 times EPS if there's a bearish environment. Well, it is paying 70 times 2007 estimated EPS for RVBD, which is a GSB much larger competitor, so ... it's possible (curiously enough RVBD held quite well in the market dip).
I'll continue holding GSB.
GSB is holding up well even as the general market collapses. We don't want no volume or volatility here, I hope GSB just dies here on low volume and then spikes up when there's good news, like the one we'll have on Monday. It's better not to have a "buy before the news" type of action.
GSB is one of those stocks that I'll hold through all bull and bear markets, the business can only get better over the long term.
Someone has bought us a present worth 90k shares of GSB propelling the thing to $5.3 at the closing! >:D Are we on fire again?!
Quote from: berloga on August 10, 2007, 04:06:58 PM
Someone has bought us a present worth 90k shares of GSB propelling the thing to $5.3 at the closing! >:D Are we on fire again?!
That was sure a welcome end to the day! Seems like we are on fire again, probably somebody knows something about earnings ;)
Quote from: tokyopua on August 10, 2007, 04:14:05 PM
Quote from: berloga on August 10, 2007, 04:06:58 PM
Someone has bought us a present worth 90k shares of GSB propelling the thing to $5.3 at the closing! >:D Are we on fire again?!
That was sure a welcome end to the day! Seems like we are on fire again, probably somebody knows something about earnings ;)
I sure hope someone knows something that we don't and that it will be all good. The couple stocks I do own from the 3SOF did me quite well today and surely made an interesting end to a depressing week. I need to learn to have more faith in the genius of David Randolph. I just pick what I feel the best picks are out of his choices. GSB, NGA, CIMT, ICOC and I also own EEB which kinda sucked today but hats off to David. Truely a genius in the face of adversity. Keep on going strong Mr Randolph, you are rocking the market. 8)
Quote from: David Randolph on August 09, 2007, 07:57:15 AM
QuoteMy trendline is still intact... ;)
I adjusted my trendline a little bit, omitted the long wicked candle from last May.
Good idea, adding some flexibility to the chart. I'll do the same with my chart.
On a fundamental note, I wonder if next Monday news will be enough for GSB to breakout above the $5.25 horizontal resistance level. That sure would be nice, for the stock to accomplish the closing of 2007 in the $8 - $10 range.
I'll adjust my fundamental estimates when we get the results ... I'm just a bit afraid that the market won't be paying 35.84 times EPS if there's a bearish environment. Well, it is paying 70 times 2007 estimated EPS for RVBD, which is a GSB much larger competitor, so ... it's possible (curiously enough RVBD held quite well in the market dip).
I'll continue holding GSB.
Nice rally...... I think GSB will save the Main Portfolio from going in red this year. ;D
Very nice beark out :)
fyi:
GSB: To Release Q2 Results Aug 13 [AMC]
Friday , August 10, 2007 13:00ET
GlobalSCAPE, Inc (Amex: GSB) is scheduled to release its Q2 financial results on August 13, 2007, after the close of the market (AMC).
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:
Q2 Revenue: $4.36 million
Q2 EPS: $0.04 per share
&
GlobalSCAPE to Host Quarterly Conference Call
Tuesday , August 07, 2007 08:00ET
SAN ANTONIO, Aug 07, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB), leading the market on the integration of Managed File Transfer and Wide Area File Services technologies, will host a conference call, Monday, Aug. 13, 2007 at 4 p.m.(CDT) to discuss the second quarter 2007 results. The call can be accessed by dialing 800-380-1061 for the US/Canada and 706-679-5282 for International. Participants are asked to use the following Conference ID # when joining the call: 11378081. In addition, those individuals who wish to access the call should do so 10 minutes prior to the beginning of the call. A replay of the conference call will be available after 6 p.m. (CDT) on Aug. 13, 2007 through Aug. 20, 2007 by dialing 800-642-1687 or 706-645-9291 and entering the pass code 11378081. The conference call and supplemental financial information will also be available on the investor relations portion of the GlobalSCAPE web site.
The live conference call will be available via the Internet by accessing the GlobalSCAPE Web site at http://www.globalscape.com/company/ir.aspx. Please go to the Web site at least fifteen minutes prior to the call to register, download and install any necessary audio software. The webcast replay will also be available on GlobalSCAPE's Web site until Aug. 20th.
GSB rose 12.8% on Friday, probably due to anticipation of today's 2nd quarter results. The company already gave very positive guidance for this quarter:
«GlobalSCAPE (OTCBB:GSCP) announced today, that fueled by the previously announced DOD order, it expects the second quarter revenues to be between $6.2MM and $6.3MM, growth of 170% over 2nd quarter 2006. "The 2nd quarter will clearly set a net high for us in both revenue and earnings," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "While this quarter's numbers should not be looked at as the new standard, neither should they be seen as a one time thing," continued Poole. "We believe that from time to time orders of this magnitude will occur and become a part of our business model. We certainly plan to work to that end. Whether they come in the form of government requirements or through other endeavors, we believe our products meet a market need at this level."»
I'll be especially curious about the full year 2007 guidance and if management has more high value contracts in the pipeline.
GSB closed at a new all time high and it is now the 2nd biggest holding of the Main Portfolio. I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
I just saw your post la-onda:
QuoteCONSENSUS ESTIMATES:
Q2 Revenue: $4.36 million
Q2 EPS: $0.04 per share
This consensus estimate will be easily beaten, since the company already said revenues will be between $6.2 M and $6.3 M as one can read above.
Aug 13 (Reuters) -
GLOBALSCAPE INC. (GSB.A: Quote, Profile, Research)
(In $) Latest Yr ago qtr
EPS (diluted) 0.12 --
Net (million) 2.1 --
Revenue (million) 6.4 2.4
Reuters Estimates: EPS $0.04 (one analyst), revenue 4.4
million (one analyst)
(Reporting by Nachiket Kelkar in Bangalore) ((Editing by
Amitha Rajan; Reuters
Messaging:
[email protected]; within U.S.
+1 646 223 8780; outside U.S. +91 80 4135 5800))
© Reuters 2007. All rights reserved.
GlobalSCAPE Sets New Records For Q2 2007Monday August 13, 8:00 am ET
Company Experiences 162% Revenue Growth and 323% Net Income Growth
SAN ANTONIO, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB - News), leading the market in the integration of Managed File Transfer and Wide Area File Services technologies, today announced its second quarter results.
Revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2007, grew to $6,418,025, or 162% over the $2,445,327 registered in the 2nd quarter of last year. Net Income increased by 323% to $2,114,876 or $.12 a share on both a basic and fully diluted basis for the quarter.
"I am especially excited about the way our core business, Secure File Transfer and File Sharing continues to explode," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "At 60% growth, we would have had a great quarter without the Defense Department order. Since inception in '03, our server-side business has more than doubled each year from $600 thousand in '04 to $2.9 million in '05, to $6 million in '06, and we'll exceed $13 million this year," stated Poole. "Those core products are fueling our steady, if not dramatic, growth and making it possible for us to participate in the very large order arenas that are not as predictable. We'll take advantage of those opportunities as they occur while focusing on the day-to-day activities that have gotten us here," concluded Poole.
About GlobalSCAPE
GlobalSCAPE, a provider of Global Managed File Transfer (MFT) solutions and wide-area file services (WAFS) technologies, delivers a modular approach to solving the enterprise challenges of security, bandwidth, latency and regulatory compliance. GlobalSCAPE's products securely and efficiently move files such as financial data, medical records, customer files, intellectual property, and other sensitive documents of any size between supply chain partners and branch offices. GlobalSCAPE's products are used by mid-sized and large enterprise companies, including virtually all of the Fortune 100, leading technology, banking, healthcare, and public sector organizations. Headquartered in San Antonio, TX., GlobalSCAPE is also the developer of CuteFTP, the most popular file transfer protocol application on the market. For more information on our risk-free purchase options, visit www.globalscape.com or call 800-290-5054 (US) or 210-308-8267 (international).
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The words "would," "exceed," "should," "steady," "dramatic," and variations of such words and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements, but their absence does not mean that a statement is not a forward-looking statement. These forward-looking statements are based upon the Company's current expectations and are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ significantly from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements are risks that are detailed in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the 2006 calendar year, filed on March 22, 2007 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact:
GlobalSCAPE
Earl Posey, 210-293-7918
VP-Investor Relations/Business Operations
Earnings are out and looking good.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070813/20070813005192.html?.v=1
Rev. $6.4M EPS $.12
Bid is currently at $5.55
how do you like them apples? beat your estimates by 2 million and eps at 8 cents.
Quote from: eggman11 on August 13, 2007, 08:43:35 AM
Earnings are out and looking good.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070813/20070813005192.html?.v=1
Rev. $6.4M EPS $.12
Bid is currently at $5.55
lol...funny you say that because ask is at $85,251.635. lol
It is weird, I thought GSB would explode today, instead it is down now. ???
Big boys have to get their shares first and then they'll let it run up over the next couple of weeks.
Ray
went up to 5.90! now at 5.02 looks like buying opportunity....
Looks like a bit of "sell the news" here today, but the stock should recover soon enough, those were great earnings ;D
Quote from: tokyopua on August 13, 2007, 05:13:11 PM
Looks like a bit of "sell the news" here today, but the stock should recover soon enough, those were great earnings ;D
Yep, on Friday we've had "buy the rumor" and today "sell the news". Longer term the stock goes higher on improving fundamentals. Full update with conference call highlights tomorrow before the open.
Hi David,
Since cashing out my portfolio on February 26-27 I've decided to jump back in after the recent downturn. I'm convinced that a few of your picks such as GIGM, NVTL, JAKK, SWIR, and GSB will show nice returns for the patient investor. Hanging out in cashland hasn't been so bad but now I'm bored and need some excitement back in my portfolio. I'm sure, either way, I'll get what I wish for.
Capricho
Quote from: capricho on August 13, 2007, 10:43:54 PM
Hi David,
Since cashing out my portfolio on February 26-27 I've decided to jump back in after the recent downturn. I'm convinced that a few of your picks such as GIGM, NVTL, JAKK, SWIR, and GSB will show nice returns for the patient investor. Hanging out in cashland hasn't been so bad but now I'm bored and need some excitement back in my portfolio. I'm sure, either way, I'll get what I wish for.
Capricho
That looks like a nice timing Capricho, congrats on your patience and ability to stay in cash for more or less prolonged periods of time.
There's some problem with the conference call replay or with my computer and I can't hear it at this moment. I'll try again later in the session.
Overall 2nd quarter revenue and EPS came in even higher than the guidance the company provided in June 1st and everything is on track with my long term fundamental forecasts.
The market action is explained by a "buy the rumor, sell the news" classic phenomenon, but I think the stock fell to the "too cheap" territory again. Technically the trend remains bullish.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
4.75 should be the bottom
was not the bottom whats wrong we test 4.25
what an ugly sell-off who is selling ? Panic?
sell the news as its finest :-\ :-\
GSB: Volume Spike; 21% > 20-adsv, Stock -10.57%
Tuesday , August 14, 2007 11:50ET
This is the 2nd VOLUME alert for GSB in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for GlobalSCAPE, Inc (AMEX: GSB) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 11:50 ET, the stock had already traded 107,300 shares via 96 trades. The cumulative volume is 21.24% above its 20-day average of 88,505. Normally the stock experiences around 103 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net decline in GSB's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $4.355, down $-0.515 (-10.57%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $2.850. The price has gained more than 52 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session GSB has traded in a range between $4.050 and $5.900 and is currently trading 26.19% below its 52-week high of $5.900 set on August 13,2007 and 104.46% above its 52-week low of $2.130 from May 15,2007.
In the previous 3 sessions, GSB trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:
August 13, 2007 --- closed at $4.870 down $0.430 (-8.11%) on 280,600 shares
August 10, 2007 --- closed at $5.300 up $0.600 (+12.77%) on 103,900 shares
August 09, 2007 --- closed at $4.700 down $0.050 (-1.05%) on 9,700 shares
The Company last released news on August 13, 2007 (yesterday):
"GlobalSCAPE Sets New Records For Q2 2007"
It seems just a profit taking after earnings.
Stock markets are on a roller coaster in these weeks and small caps are suffering more than others.
buy on the dip?
Let go..buy on the dip..
It broke a very important trend ... I don't know why this bad sell off for a company with good news :-\
I bought some more at $4.15 with a limit order that got filled at the end of trading. Yes, it broke a trend line, but today was a bad day in the overall market. GSB is at a support line that has about 7 points since mid June, and is near the 50dma.
Quote from: tokyopua on August 14, 2007, 04:16:41 PM
I bought some more at $4.15 with a limit order that got filled at the end of trading. Yes, it broke a trend line, but today was a bad day in the overall market. GSB is at a support line that has about 7 points since mid June, and is near the 50dma.
$4 is a support and it should not break it ;D
I heard the conference call and I see no reason for the sell off, other than "sell the news" activity and the general market bearishness.
There were some issues around Avail's integration which didn't go as well as expected due to different programming codes, but everything is being solved now and they expect Avail to be where they expected shortly.
The CEO maintained his $20 M revenue guidance for 2007. It can be more if there's another big order from the Army or any other governmental institution of if the partnership with Synteras produces any deal (Synteras is a $1 B private company).
Technically the stock broke down below our ascending trendline, but it just touched the $4 support area again and the 50 days SMA support.
Fundamentally I expect very strong growth, improving profitability and see the stock as undervalued. I see the core business as independent from the general economic activity in terms of GDP growth or private consumption.
I think the company will use the current sell off to buy back some shares, since they still have plenty of room in their stock repurchase plan.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
Any close above about $4.03 makes today a hammer reversal candle, I am expecting to see that, probably closes above its 50sma at around $4.10.
Closing below 4.15 by friday will be ugly :(
Quote from: Garoh on August 15, 2007, 11:36:21 AM
Closing below 4.15 by friday will be ugly :(
$4 looks like support, so a close below that might be bad, but not sure about $4.15. Is that where you expect the 50sma to be by Friday and is that why you are worried about that level?
Quote from: tokyopua on August 15, 2007, 10:50:18 AM
Any close above about $4.03 makes today a hammer reversal candle, I am expecting to see that, probably closes above its 50sma at around $4.10.
So much for my brilliant prediction, guess I should have stipulated "unless the market blows up yet again". Still, down 12.5% today? WTF? The candlesticks are now 3 black crows, I hate that considering the great earnings. Yeah, I am a bit frustrated with the overall market, and the last 3 days of price action here. Doesnt make sense >:(
But Im still holding...
Based on an absolutely bi-polar views on the situation in different forums (posted here as well), it is better either to hold or not buy. I'll hold GSB.
GSB: Volume Spike; 6% > 20-adsv, Stock -8.43%
Wednesday, August 15, 2007 10:25ET
This is the 3rd VOLUME alert for GSB in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for GlobalSCAPE, Inc (AMEX: GSB) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 10:25 ET, the stock had already traded 103,100 shares via 53 trades. The cumulative volume is 6.05% above its 20-day average of 97,220. Normally the stock experiences around 116 individual trades per session. So far, today's volume surge has caused a net decline in GSB's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $3.800, down $-0.350 (-8.43%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $2.850. The price has gained more than 33 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session GSB has traded in a range between $4.020 and $5.900 and is currently trading 35.59% below its 52-week high of $5.900 set on August 13,2007 and 78.40% above its 52-week low of $2.130 from May 15,2007.
In the previous 4 sessions, GSB trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:
August 15, 2007 --- closed at $3.650 down $0.500 ( -12.048 %) on 383,700 shares
August 14, 2007 --- closed at $4.150 down $0.720 (-14.78%) on 315,600 shares
August 13, 2007 --- closed at $4.870 down $0.430 (-8.11%) on 280,600 shares
August 10, 2007 --- closed at $5.300 up $0.600 (+12.77%) on 103,900 shares
Man! I am out from GSB, it took my stop where I bought it... loss only in commission :(
Around 3,25-3.35$ and the 200MA should be a good entry, if it gets there ofcourse, watching it ...
GSB's chart turned bearish now, with the stock closing below the $4 support level. GSB is trading like a stock, not like a business. The business is doing well as prospects are great, but traders just read "buy the rumor, sell the news" and then "the stock is going down on good news, sell" and then "the stock broke support, sell".
I know who will be buying shares around current levels, GlobalScape itself.
Terliso opted to get out at break even and I respect his risk management rules.
I'm not going to do that, because I don't want to waste the long term potential of the WAFS and Secure File Sharing markets just because the stock keeps bouncing around $4 on different trading appetites.
I want to see beyond the stock and look into the business fundamentals. These I see as very strong and promising. I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
Well , this is really weird !!
A stock losing almost 45% of its price in 4 days with strong volume , there must be something wrong with company that we don't know !!!
I really didn't like it from the first day when we got that ugly candle after reaching a very important resistance around 6 or less ....
we need ti dig more about hiden news
Quote from: David Randolph on August 16, 2007, 07:51:11 AM
GSB's chart turned bearish now, with the stock closing below the $4 support level. GSB is trading like a stock, not like a business.
Hmmm... I guess there were too many Technicians and too few fundamentalists in this stock.
I like the story and the outlook so I am in!
(I have been on a bit of a shopping spree today ;D)
I bought more at 3.20.
I missed this one the first time around so I'm grateful for the cheap prices today. Let's go GSB!
Hey Gang,
I am not worried at all here - as "just some short term noise" - probably some big seller. Also, GSB is simply a thinly traded stock with about 90k shares traded per day. I would not be surprised to see GSB fly high soon, and for the record doubled down yesterday at $3.75.
Here is an excerpt from RB MB that I thought I would share - Enjoy!
<<By: Mighty_Mouse
23 Jul 2007, 10:23 PM EDT
Msg. 1148 of 1150
Jump to msg. #
Cramer's site rates GSB a BUY: excerpt...
[With comments from yours truly, of course, in brackets.
I don't use the free analysis on his site, which is dated, of course, but I am registered as a paying member and get the latest updates, and that's what you're about to read about Globalscape. Important to note ... the stock price at the time of this update was $5.15.]
RECOMMENDATION
We rate GLOBALSCAPE INC (GSB) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, reasonable valuation levels, [remember, this is the updated on 7/19/7 with the stock price at $5.15, shown on Cramer's site -- MM], solid stock price performance and good cash flow from operations. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income [which we know from guidance for Q2 (APR-JUN) net income is about to change dramatically -- MM].
HIGHLIGHTS
GSB's revenue growth, albeit extremely impressive, trails in comparison to the industry average of 57.0%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues leaped by 50.0%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displaying stagnant earnings per share. [Again, we know the 2nd Quarter results are expected to be in line with previous margin percentages, so net income, again, should be very strong. After Q2 net income figures are incorporated in Cramer's analysis, if as I expect and income is indeed very strong, all the good things in this analysis will remain the same or improve, and the net income issue will not be considered sub-par, in my humble opinion. -- MM]
Regardless of the somewhat mixed results with the debt-to-equity ratio, the company's quick ratio of 1.20 is sturdy.
Compared to its closing price of one year ago, GSB's share price has jumped by 92.01%, exceeding the performance of the broader market during that same time frame. Regarding the stock's future course, although almost any stock can fall in a broad market decline, GSB should continue to move higher despite the fact that it has already enjoyed a very nice gain in the past year. [This is why I have enjoined family and friends to look forward to a strong stock and why I call this stock a 'splitter'. In my opinion, it will move up and split, move up and split... -- MM]
Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 75.44% to $1.08 million when compared to the same quarter last year. The firm also exceeded the industry average cash flow growth rate of 45.93%.
[Let this suffice for now as I just got in from enjoying yardwork, or as may be more preferable or cool to deem it, gardening. Indeed, I was in the garden. I have a green thumb. With Globalscape, I also have a green thumb (smiles). (It's really research, not the thumb.)
If I can update some more tonight, I will. If not, look for more soon. Don't let this get away from; buy on dips and hold for the long-term because the Army isn't going away, there's other militaries out there and the FIPS certification process is moving along, and the Synteras partnership is, too.
MM >>
Good Luck and Happy Trading!
Bourbon ;D
fyi:High Growth, Kept Promises: GlobalScape is a Bargain
Friday August 17, 4:46 am ET
Philip Obal submits: GlobalSCAPE (AMEX: GSB - News) is at a bargain price now. It has announced great quarterly earnings recently (6.4 million, an increase from a year ago of 2.4 million) - then took a nose dive down!
The company's current growth rate is close to 50% while its forward PE is a 10. This thinly traded technology stock swings widely based on market moods (irrational at times).
Management follows through on what they say will do. They pre-announced a major win - and then announced a DOD contract. They pre-announced a move to American Exchange - and then made the move; the company's new stock symbol is GSB (it was GSCP.OB). The company has ZERO debt (which is very healthy). They made smart acquisition of AVAIL in 2006 and are now adding to the revenue and earnings growth.
GSB fell 52% from top to bottom in four trading days and I don't have an appropriate adjective to qualify the nature of the move.
Let me just say that I don't think Garoh is right when saying:
QuoteA stock losing almost 45% of its price in 4 days with strong volume , there must be something wrong with company that we don't know !!!
I read the latest 10-Q filing, the press release and heard the conference call and there's nothing wrong with the company or its prospects. Believe it or not, I guess what happened was a lot of people wanted to sell because of general market jitters and not a lot of people were watching or inclined to buy GSB, as most walk away from small caps when the general market is bleeding.
Fortunately there are some smart investors outthere, like Michael, who recognize value and took advantage of this great buying opportunity.
As far as I'm concerned, it may take longer than four days for GSB to be at $5 again, but say six months from now I see it at $8, because fundamentals will probably keep improving (as secure file sharing and wide area file sharing servers will just keep growing, with or without general economic growth) and I see the stock as very cheap now, trading at 5.7 times next year earnings (my estimate goes for net income of $10 M in 2008).
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term, despite the shocking price action :-X
Quote from: David Randolph on August 17, 2007, 07:32:06 AM
GSB fell 52% from top to bottom in four trading days and I don't have an appropriate adjective to qualify the nature of the move.
Let me just say that I don't think Garoh is right when saying:
QuoteA stock losing almost 45% of its price in 4 days with strong volume , there must be something wrong with company that we don't know !!!
I read the latest 10-Q filing, the press release and heard the conference call and there's nothing wrong with the company or its prospects. Believe it or not, I guess what happened was a lot of people wanted to sell because of general market jitters and not a lot of people were watching or inclined to buy GSB, as most walk away from small caps when the general market is bleeding.
Fortunately there are some smart investors outthere, like Michael, who recognize value and took advantage of this great buying opportunity.
As far as I'm concerned, it may take longer than four days for GSB to be at $5 again, but say six months from now I see it at $8, because fundamentals will probably keep improving (as secure file sharing and wide area file sharing servers will just keep growing, with or without general economic growth) and I see the stock as very cheap now, trading at 5.7 times next year earnings (my estimate goes for net income of $10 M in 2008).
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term, despite the shocking price action :-X
David we just want to make sure there's no bad things about the company :)
If I looked to the chart for the first time I would say that this company is going to bunkruptcy ???
It was going down like a rock coming from the sky with volume much more than average volume ... I put a stop loss at $4.77 for 60% of my shares and it took it in a few minutes after the the open in last tuesday ... people were selling like crazy !!
anyway todays close is very important for the whole market , If we get a bounce with strong volume this will mean we are at the bottom and next week will be cute ;D
I still trust your good work david ... keep it up :)
What just happend to GSB??? I had a GTC order in and myy 500 shares just sold at $9.75!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
QuoteDavid we just want to make sure there's no bad things about the company :)
Sure Garoh :)
Look, GSB is at $9,999 ;D
Quote from: DragonAMG on August 17, 2007, 09:37:43 AM
What just happend to GSB??? I had a GTC order in and myy 500 shares just sold at $9.75!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow, consider yourself the luckiest guy on Earth DragonAMG ;D
But just if you buy back your 500 shares below $4 ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on August 17, 2007, 09:40:00 AM
Quote from: DragonAMG on August 17, 2007, 09:37:43 AM
What just happend to GSB??? I had a GTC order in and myy 500 shares just sold at $9.75!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow, consider yourself the luckiest guy on Earth DragonAMG ;D
But just if you buy back your 500 shares below $4 ;)
I am definitely buying it back!!! Now I can also afford to stay in the market and a subscriber of this site... I was starting to lose my a$$ ;D ;D ;D
Wow, I have $22,000,000 worth of GSB. Wish I knew what is going on here...
Tokyopua,
me too, let's get David to start up a hedge fund.LoL... looks like it is coming back down now.
Oh well for one day I had a 22.5 million dollar portfolio
up 75%..wow.
I sold something for 5.95
Quote from: capricho on August 17, 2007, 09:54:21 AM
up 75%..wow.
doesn't matter imo, bid is only at $3.41 ...
I only see 1000 shares traded so far and bid at 3.51
Don't open the champagne bottle yet. Congratulations to babouk
GLTA
Quote from: David Randolph on August 17, 2007, 09:38:46 AM
QuoteDavid we just want to make sure there's no bad things about the company :)
Sure Garoh :)
Look, GSB is at $9,999 ;D
man if this is true I would quit the market and buy an island in Fijji ;D
my acount is 41 million now because of GSB :o
When these anomalies occur I repeatedly recall the following unconfirmed gossip
running around traders:
Market Maker signals for shares:
100 - I need shares
200 - I need shares, but do not take the price down
300 - take the price down to get shares
400 - trade it sideways based on supply and demand
500 - gap the stock, in the direction of the 500 trade
Quote from: jorgegr on August 17, 2007, 10:15:32 AM
When these anomalies occur I repeatedly recall the following unconfirmed gossip
running around traders:
Market Maker signals for shares:
100 - I need shares
200 - I need shares, but do not take the price down
300 - take the price down to get shares
400 - trade it sideways based on supply and demand
500 - gap the stock, in the direction of the 500 trade
I would be quite happy if it just stays in the $4 range it has hit now, though the low bid still doesnt seem to move...
jorgegr, can you explain these signals, I dont think I fully understand.
Quote from: tokyopua on August 17, 2007, 09:48:52 AM
Wow, I have $22,000,000 worth of GSB. Wish I knew what is going on here...
Hehe, a day to remember ;D
I guess what happened was someone gave an order to buy 1,000 at the open at the market, and because there weren't any offers in the market, he ended up buying the 1,000 all the way up to $9,999. I guess all trades above $9.75 were cancelled, but it seems DragonAMG got away with his fill at $9.75, the high of the day :D
Quote from: tokyopua on August 17, 2007, 10:42:01 AM
Quote from: jorgegr on August 17, 2007, 10:15:32 AM
When these anomalies occur I repeatedly recall the following unconfirmed gossip
running around traders:
Market Maker signals for shares:
100 - I need shares
200 - I need shares, but do not take the price down
300 - take the price down to get shares
400 - trade it sideways based on supply and demand
500 - gap the stock, in the direction of the 500 trade
I would be quite happy if it just stays in the $4 range it has hit now, though the low bid still doesnt seem to move...
jorgegr, can you explain these signals, I dont think I fully understand.
The signal is based on an odd price out of context like those executed today in
GSB.
Nevertheless David's explanation can also be the case.
GSB trades on AMEX & my broker Interactive Brokers has been messaging all morning that AMEX has a 'delayed open", is not open for trading and does not know when it will be...
Here is text of message:
To AMEX traders:
Fri Aug 17 09:24:23 2007 EST
AMEX has announced there will be a delayed opening on all AMEX products, options and equities. No time announced currently
Here we go $4.10 we just need to keep it above this level :)
Amex routinely opens late, I really don't like trading Amex for that reason. Yesterday it opened about 15 minutes late and today it was about 45 minutes late.
GSB's trading has been somewhat crazy over the last few days and Friday even brought us some funny episodes with a few 3 SOF folks getting great fills for their shares (at least over the short term).
Fundamentally everything is on track for the stock to close the year in the $8 - $10 range.
I'll keep holding GSB.
GSB closed back above $4, which is a development we certainly welcome. The chart was completely transfigured with those crazy trades on Friday, but since they happened and were valid, I don't think I should erase them from the chart.
At first I was scared about a Form 424B3 the company filed with the SEC yesterday, but then I saw it had already been filed in April 16th, so it's old news, nothing to worry about.
Hi Michael, I'm glad you took the opportunity to join us in GSB, wouldn't you like to share your thoughts on the stock with us? Thanks :)
Considering the company's products:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39812;image)
I say demand for these products and solutions can only increase with time, therefore GSB (also because it has a cheap valuation - just compare with RVBD, for example, in the same space) is a very attractive long term investment.
GSB was all over the place yesterday. I think that in this chaotic trading environment, it helps to focus on the nature of the business behind the stock:
«Nature of Business
GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (GlobalSCAPE), founded in April 1996, develops and distributes secure file management software that enables users to safely send data over the internet and Wide-Area Files Systems ("WAFS") collaboration and Continuous Data Protection ("CDP") software. Our software is used worldwide across a wide range of industries. Through the end of 2006, we had sold approximately 1.6 million software licenses and support agreements and our customer base includes individual consumers, small to medium-sized businesses, as well as some of the largest corporations in the world.
Our file transfer products provide privacy for critical information such as medical records, financial data, customer files and other similar documents. In addition, these products provide for compliance with government regulations relating to the protection of information while allowing users to reduce IT costs, increase efficiency, track and audit transactions and automate processes. Our WAFS and CDP products provide data replication, acceleration of file transfer, sharing/collaboration and continuous data backup and recovery to our customers. We believe that we are uniquely positioned to provide secure transfer, sharing, and replication of files that need to be transmitted inside the user's firewall to distributed offices, or outside the user's firewall to business and trading partners.
During the six months ended June 30, 2007, approximately 82% of our revenues were generated from customers within the United States, with the remaining 18% concentrated mostly in Western Europe, Canada and Australia. Virtually all of our 2007 revenues were derived from sales of software licenses and support agreements. The combined sales of CuteFTP Home and CuteFTP Pro accounted for 34% of our revenues for the first six months of 2006 and 18% of our revenues for the same period of 2007. The combined sales of our SecureFTP Server and Enhanced File Transfer products represented 62% and 69% of our revenues for the six months ended June 30, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Sales of the WAFS and CDP products represented 7% of our 2006 annual revenue and 15% of our revenues for the six months ended June 30, 2007.»
There's no doubt this business will grow immensely over the next few years.
The market cap is just $74 M and I see $10 M net income in 2008, on about $40 M in revenue (the company's guidance is for $20 M in 2007, up 100% from 2006).
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
;)
Globalscape Conference Call Transcript
(from RB board)
......
Good afternoon. Welcome to GSB's 2nd quarter earnings release conference call. As with last quarter, I'll handle a few of the highlights, discuss some of our plans, and turn the conversation over to Bernard Schneider, our CFO, for an in-depth look at the numbers. I'll then return to answer some of your questions. If you already read this morning's press release, you'll appreciate my excitement. Globalscape had a wonderful quarter. With revenues of $6.4M, we grew 162% over the 2nd quarter of '06. Our net income increased by 323% to $2.1M. If you permit me a thought here, in 2004, just over $1M in revenue was our typical quarter; this quarter we paid over a million dollars in federal taxes.
Our earnings for the 2nd quarter were 12 cents a share, both basic and fully diluted. This compares to 3 cents for the 2nd quarter of '06. It makes our 6 months numbers 15 cents a share basic, 14 cents a share fully-diluted.
The large Department of Defense order clearly impacted our performance. I offer no apology. This is the kind of event, while harder to forecast, it is a vital part of our total sales strategy. We hope to have these significant revenue occurrences in the future.
For a moment though, I'd like you to focus on our revenue without the DoD order. Sales were roughly $3.9 million, or 60% growth. Our core business is doing very well. Even though our Wide Area File Service, WAFS product, acquired with Availl, has not yet reached the revenue level we expect.
As our engineering team continues to bolster the products' core capabilities, and marketing implements new programs to penetrate the market, we believe our WAFS revenue expectations will be reached. We'll be adding three (3) new WAFS features later this year, and we believe that these additions will get us to the revenue levels we expected six months ago. I have to keep reminding myself that the acquisition is only nine months old.
In the meantime, our secure file transfer business is booming; from $600,000 dollars in '04, to $2.9M million in '05, to $6M million in '06, and this year we believe we'll exceed $13M million.
I'm convinced that it's our focus on our core growth strategies that provides and will continue to provide these major opportunities. This focus makes us the best at what we do, and has driven the national and international recognition that has allowed us to accomplish several things:
#1. Our appointment to the payment card industry (PCI) Security Standards Council. Incidentally, we'll be releasing an EFT PCI-module later this year.
#2. Our partnership with Synteras and the exposure to the vast government security area. If you didn't read our press release on this topic earlier in the Summer, I suggest you do that. It's a tremendous opportunity.
#3. Our pending Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) certification.
#4. The high marks we continue to get from Gartner, Inc. (NYSE:IT), the world's leading information & technology research & advisory company.
And all of these things, which have led to
#5.Our Amex listing.
This focus and our continuing success is providing more chances in a variety of ways for us to get the opportunities at these highest deal levels.
Some of our plans for the balance of the year are:
1. to add three (3) WAFS features, as I mentioned earlier.
2. In addition, to EFT 5.0.1, which was released this August 1st, we will add two (2) additional modules later in the year.
3. We will complete our FIPS certification process. We're actually scheduled to complete right now in 1/08, but we're 85% through with our responsibilities, and the rest is basically paperwork.
4. We want to move into a new facility here in San Antonio, roughly 50% larger than where we currently reside, ensuring our ability to add the necessary resources as required.
5. Some of us want to go north and ring the Amex bell.
6. We want to spend some time with our east coast investors. Last quarter we spent a week or so on the west coast. Now it's time to get to the east coast and talk to some of you folks.
7. And last, we want to continue to evaluate these large revenue opportunities that may present themselves to us.
In closing for now, I feel great about our position. I hope you do. I look forward to addressing you and your questions just a little later.
Bernard, if you'll give us a deeper look at the numbers.
Thank you Randy.
Before I begin, I want to remind you that Globalscape had not acquired Availl by this time last year, so our 2nd quarter numbers for 2006 do not include any revenue or expense attributable to Availl. As I compare those numbers to Globalscape's consolidated numbers for the current quarterly reporting period, please remember that some of the difference is due to the presence of the Availl numbers in the current quarter, but not in the same quarter of last year.
Let's look at the revenues. Globalscape total revenue for the 2nd quarter was $6.4 million dollars as Randy mentioned earlier. That represents a 62% increase over the 2nd quarter of last year. Product revenue was $5.5 million of the $6.4 million, or 87% of the total, an increase of 161% over last year. This was fueled by the DoD order that Randy mentioned, as well as strong EFT and Secure Server demand. Maintenance & Support revenue totalled $861,000 dollars and deferred revenue grew by $399,000 dollars to $1.9 million. Remember that deferred revenue is the maintenance & support contracts that have been sold but not yet fully recognized as revenue.
From a channel standpoint, direct sales to customers accounted for 77% of the total, or $4.9 million dollars. Internet sales accounted for 13% of the total, or $832,000. And sales through resellers totalled $668,000 dollars to the remaining 10%.
Our gross margin in the 2nd quarter was 99%, an improvement over last year, which was 97%. The reason for this is the reduced royalties in the current quarter. Sales of Cascade Server, the product with the highest royalties, was a smaller proportion of the total sales.
From an operating expense standpoint, the total operating expenses for the quarter was $3.2 million dollars, an increase of $1.5 million, or 88% over 2006. Of this, Availl was $623,000 dollars; 41% of the increase.
The sales & marketing expenses for the quarter was $1.5 million, an increase of $842,000, or 120% increase over the same period of 2006. The sales & marketing percentage, as a percentage of revenue, was 24% for the quarter.
Research & development expense for the 2nd quarter was $551,000 dollars, an increase of $284,000, or a 106% increase over last year. And research & development as a percentage of revenue was 9%.
General administrative expenses was one million dollars, an increase of $642,000 dollars, or 62% over 2006. And the G&A as a percentage of revenue was 16% for the quarter.
From a depreciation & amortization expense standpoint, that expense increased by 49% to 39,000.
And operating income and operating margins, from a GAAP standpoint operating income for the 2nd quarter was $3.2 million dollars compared to operating income of $722,000 for 2006. The GAAP operating margins as a percentage was 50% compared to 30% for the same period of last year.
And finally, net income for the quarter was $2.1 million dollars compared to net income of $500,000 in the 2nd quarter of 2006. And net margin was 33% for this quarter just ended compared to 20% in 2006.
And now we're ready to answer any questions that you may have.And your first question comes from the line of Greg Newman with The Newman Agency.
Congratulations everyone on a splendid quarter. I can't say enough about it. Really impressive numbers and looking forward to seeing more of those in the future. The questions I have are on the Synteras partnership, if there's anything more you can tell us on that, to elaborate how that's going to roll out, the time frame, anything in that kind of partnership, the way the team is coming together. I have a question about Nasdaq listing since it was mentioned in one of the analyst reports, if y'all are still considering the Nasdaq, maybe is that going to be a dual listing and how that would come about. I've got another question about the buyback, the current status and progress, how that's going, and it looks like maybe y'all worked that with the stock options instead of purchasing in the open market. Whatever you can tell us on that. It looked like a win-win-win situation for everybody there from what I can make out from it, that it sets a price for the employee, it sets a price for the company and reduces outstanding shares for shareholders. I think that's enough for now. Maybe one last question would be about the music industry, what you can tell us about that, if there's any plan to enter that field and what they might be.
Thank you.
Thanks Greg. Good to hear from you again. (You, too.) Thanks for those kind words.
Synteras is part of a billion-dollar super-eight corporation. For those of you not familiar with the term super-eight, the government requires a certain participation of minority businesses, female-owned businesses. A super-eight is someone who qualifies in two categories. Synteras does (qualify), not as a native-american but Eskimo-owned company, so they have a privileged standing in negotiating federal contracts. We are their partner for all of the products that we provide. All are basically security-related and their strength and their typical dealings with not only the federal but with state and local governments is on the secure side. Our director of sales here, Nick Flores, works directly with one of their vice-presidents on all of the opportunities that they get, and if we have something specific to talk about, Greg, in the future, we will certainly be forthcoming with it. We're excited about the opportunity to get these chances and we'll be ecstatic when we have something to tell you.
Okay.
Greg, we have been with the Amex for less than a month now. We are delighted with the relationship. They have been extremely supportive, extremely easy to work with. I think the comment about Nasdaq was made prior to our Amex listing when we really had waited quite a while and weren't sure how quickly things would occur. At this point, I quite honestly don't see any advantage in a dual listing, although we certainly have our shareholders' interests always in the forefront. At this point and time I'm very happy with where we are and don't have anything further to say on that at this moment.
The buyback information Bernard can probably be more specific with you. I think we bought back just over a hundred thousand shares. (Bernard: 120,000.) A hundred and twenty thousand. There's absolutely no relationship to the options that you were describing. We actually did buy them back on the open market. I think that our average price so far has been $3.61 (Bernard: $3.16). $3.16. And we have not gone beyond that in several weeks because the market's been doing very well, and the price has gotten up, and we've sort of held on to the balance of our committment there.
The music industry is providing some interest to us right now, and our vice-president of engineering is taking a look at a couple of things that may be of interest in the future. I don't have anything to tell you at this point, but you know we had a Napster-like product that we had patented. For some time after Napster and the lawsuits, we completely abandoned that market, and I think that there are now some opportunities, that we may want to relook a couple of things. If so, we'll have something to say on that in the future as well, Greg. Thank you very much for your question.
You're welcome. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Raymond Young with Dolphin Management.
Hi, Randy.
(Randy:) Good afternoon.
Good afternoon
A couple of questions concerning Availl. Can you shed some color on, I guess, on the integration problems that you guys may be seeing, given that they're behind in terms of your expectations for revenues? Secondly, can you give me some sort of roadmap in terms of some of the technical side for the product? It sounds like you're not planning to sell it on a standalone basis, but integrate it with your other products. And lastly, also comment on the (leaving from?) management of Chuck from Availl.
Okay. The Availl product still continues to excite us just as much as it ever did. I think that it is fair to say that maybe I was a little naive in not recognizing that two completely different coding schemes presented problems. We were not happy with the performance of Availl as it related to Globalscape's standards, and did a lot of homework in trying to bring that thing up to speed. And it just simply has taken longer than we thought. We have gone through the process of getting our engineers much more familiar with it, and getting involved. And right now, as I said earlier, I believe that we're in great shape. I believe that the three additions that we'll be announcing in this quarter and early next quarter will get us to the point that we thought we would be.
I think your second question was about Chuck?
Actually the 2nd question was concerning the technical roadmap for the product. Whether you're planning to sell it only in conjunction with your secure file transfer product or are you still planning to sell it on a standalone basis?
No, we DEFINITELY plan to sell it on a standalone basis. Some of the things that we have been working on here that have added to the time here is the integration and being able to sell it AS one product. But Availl and the WAFS product has a very, very definite audience out there for a standalone basis. (Okay.) We expect to be doing that and we expect to be adding it to the enhanced file transfer product. Right now, they work very well independently. There's not that much required to make that a one system sort of operation, if you will, Raymond. We DEFINITELY believe that the market for a standalone Availl product is there, not only on the WAFS but the other products that came with the Availl package, that, we think CDP and those kinds of things, we think DEFINITELY have a market. We do believe that integrating them into EFT ALSO presents us an even higher scale of opportunities.
Okay.
I hope that answers your question.
Yes.
Chuck Shavit, who was the CEO of the company, Chuck is very much an entrepreneur and as chief scientist for us for about seven or eight months was not completely happy with his role in the organization. He was VERY, VERY beneficial to us in understanding the product. But we are still working with Chuck on trying to get some sort of consulting agreement together. I think he will not be a full-time employee going forward; he's got some other interests and some other things he wants to do, but he is very DEFINITELY a FRIEND; a friendly parting of the ways, and we expect to be able to use him and to have his help any time we need it.
Okay. Thank you so much.
You're quite welcome. Thanks for the call.
You're next question comes from the line of George Gardner, G.A.G. Investments & Associates.
Good afternoon and I congratulate you on the wonderful results.
Thank you so much.
My question relates to the margins based on what you've said concerning the partnerships, and in the area of distribution as well as sales of 99%, and hopefully I did hear that number correctly, might be a little difficult to sustain? Could you tell me what, going forward, probably would be a more of an acceptable level on the part of the company's goals in terms of margins?
George, that's an excellent question. Thank you.
Yes, it's difficult to sustain and almost impossible to improve on. The way our product cost is calculated, is simply the selling price less the cost of sales. And in our organization, the cost of sales has really been pretty much fees, etc., that when we're using a competitive product or licensing it, as I think you know if you've been following our press releases over the last couple of years, we have tried to stay focused on the server and the WAFS side of the business, and to eliminate all of the minor distractions and products that have come on board over the last ten years and really don't play much of a role in who we are now, and as we eliminate those things, we have eliminated a lot of those licensing fees. So as Bernard mentioned earlier, about the only thing we do now is we pay for a part of EFT Server that we licensed from someone. It's not a big fee; I don't expect it to increase; and I expect us to maintain upper 90's unless something fairly dramatic occurs and we decide to license someone else's product to enhance what we're doing; right now I don't see that happening, and I think for the foreseeable future, 95 to 99 is probably where we're going to be.
Okay. I sure appreciate it. Thank you.
You're quite welcome.
Your next question comes from the line of Taylor Thompkin with Anderson-Strudwick
Congratulations. Great quarter.
Thanks Taylor.
I just had one or two questions. One of them's been answered. Are you still comfortable with the $20 Million in revenue guidance?
Yes, I am. That guidance, for those of you who don't know, we upped our guidance from $17 Million to $20 Million after receiving the Army order, and like most things, it's never a slam-dunk, but at this point and time, we still believe that's the best guidance we can give the street right now.
Okay. One other thing. Can you comment anything on the competitive front that you're seeing that may have changed in the last six months?
I think that it is fair to say that we are growing more and more of a following, and after two or three years at the enterprise level, with EFT, we are finding more and more people who are coming to us because someone in that Fortune 100 - Fortune 1000 range has recommended us, has recommended our products. So I think as I talk about competition, I guess a fair view for me, early on we had competition on every deal, early on we had to sell the fact that a small San Antonio company that didn't have a lot of financial resources did have a great product, and we could assure people that it was worth taking the chance, if you will. I think those days are gone. From a competitive standpoint now, we have people coming to us directly because someone has said, Get that product. And our customers are growing. They are adding other operations around the world, expanding their own purchases. I mean, we still have competition out there obviously, and if my sales people heard me say we were in that kind of strong position, they'd probably throw rocks at me. But I feel that we don't have any hesitancy whatsoever to take on any competitor in any competitive situation.
Okay. And on the guidance, I would imagine that would not include anything more from the Army or the DoD? Correct?
Uh, Taylor...
I mean, you don't know if you get an order from them until the fact shows up, basically, right?
That's right. We know that when opportunities are presented, and we know when we talk to various people about opportunities, and we know that our relationship with the Army is a good one. In fact, one of the questions that someone faxed in to me was about the large Army/DoD order and how that was going, and as late as Friday, (three days prior to the call), we talked to them. We talk to them regularly, and I can tell you there are no problems, no issues and nothing more that they're expecting from us on this situation. Other opportunities are certainly always out there; there are a lot of things that we are always looking into and working on. I think it would be misleading of me to suggest that, you know, four, five or six of these deals are just hanging getting ready to fall. But I also believe that it's important that I tell you that we ARE always working in this arena, and there ARE opportunities for us.
It looks like if you've already gotten two orders from the Army in the last, what, I guess year or something, chances are you're probably gonna get a third or fourth, if everything's going well like you said.
Actually we have quite a few more than that. We have White Sands Missile Range, and Fort Sam Houston, and a lot of reasonably small by comparison Army orders, but all driven by the same belief in our product.
One other thing I just thought of and I'll drop off is can you refresh my memory as to how Synteras is gonna roll out your product. Remember you told me somthing like in Australia, and then they're going to South America or something like that.
Oh, no, that wasn't Synteras. That was England, let's see
I couldn't remember what customer it was.
Geez, I've got a blank right now. I'll get it before we go off the air. It's the guys who handle all the credit checks. Oh, Experian.
Experian! Right. Right.
Experian has installed our product in Europe, in New Zealand, Australia, and I think that next comes up the US, Latin America and Pacific Rim. It's kind of a rollout process that quite honestly we're seeing from most of our very large customers.
But they're not a 10% customer as of yet, are they?
No, they're not. (Bernard Schneider, prob)
Or could they be?
I hope not, because I hope our total revenue keeps growing to the point that they'll never get there. (background chuckle)
Okay. All right. Thanks a lot.
You're quite welcome.
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Newman with The Newman Agency.
Yes, Randy. I've got a couple more questions. Let's see. I was curious about how many employees there are, as of today's conference call, what you see is the hiring trend, how many employees you're expecting to hire over the next few quarters and what positions, and are you filling the positions as quickly as you need? Also how's the company filling itself out with all the hiring?
I'm sorry, say that again, how's the company?
Filling out, Filling itself out, how are you building out, how is it coming along, the build-out in the different departments that you're looking to expand, whether it's sales & support, engineering, and so forth, partnership teams?
And revenue wise how are you doing on your revenue per employee stats, and things like that?
Okay, Greg I think as you and I speak right now I think we have 61 employees. I believe that our budget for the balance of this year gets me to like 72 or 73. We have planned to continue to increase our engineering piece of the puzzle, in fact, I think we announced with Doug's hiring that we're starting a customers' special services department to provide unique help to customers, and we expect to continue to grow that organization with some really first-class engineering help. It is now also time that we also went back and started to grow our sales organization again. Our customer service piece of the puzzle needs a little bit of growth to help us there. So I guess it's fair to say that across the spectrum we're seeing growth needs in all areas. I did look not long ago at the revenue per employee and see that we're still growing that number, so we're increasing revenue at a rate that allows us to add employees and still increase the revenue per employee.
Great. That sounds good. Real good.
You've been here, Greg, and you know that we've been getting a little cramped.
Yes.
So we're expanding into another facility. It's about 22,000 square feet, which will give us ample ability to grow for the next five or so years, anyway, (yes), and that's exactly what we expect to do; we expect to continue to grow revenue and to continue to grow our manpower.
Well, I'd like to be there for the tape cutting when y'all open the doors.
Bring a cake. You'll be invited!
Okay!
I had one question about how the 3rd quarter is doing since we're all on the call here with a lot of ears to the phone, if there's anything you can tell us about how the first 6 weeks of the 3rd quarter is doing: sales, margins, growth?
And I do have a question about the Amex Internet Index. Has there been any talk to y'all about joining the Internet Index or is that just a given from your industry category there at the AMEX that that will happen in due time?
And one last question about the payment card industry industry that seems really exciting to me. You have the five biggest names in the industry, Visa, Mastercard, Discover, American Express and JCB, who founded that, and I'm curious in what way Globalscape is looking to develop revenue, earnings from that, through these relationships with them. That just sounds like a fantastic opportunity. If you can describe some of the ways it may not be obvious to us but that you're looking at, and things from transactional fees, to monthly retainers based on software sales to those companies that involve working up and down their client list to the point of sales. And one last point on that, what specific companies might you look at for probable partnership, that's if you can even speak on that part, and I think I'll leave it at that.
Greg, you are so far ahead of me I need to get you to come over here and go to work! What we have done so far has been to be appointed to the Council for Standards and Controls. We have decided to add a module to our EFT process, and to look at how we expand our standing and our revenue opportunities in that space. Beyond that we have given very little thought to the specifics that you're getting in to. I know the opportunity is huge. But I think that we've got to, rather than just flying off chasing a lot of things, our practice has been to pretty much narrow down what we want to do, and then go do it. And I think you'll see the same thing in this area.
As for revenue in the 3rd quarter, probably the best thing I can tell you is you can track our quarters for the last twelve or fourteen or sixteen, and be pretty assured of what we're doing. I think my annual guidance is still intact, and I probably wouldn't be well-served to be putting out preliminary numbers right now. But we're the same old company doing the same old things.
Okay, and the Amex Internet Index. Do they talk to y'all about that or is it just kind of fall in place there or
Greg, I don't know. I have had no conversations on it. (Okay.) But again, we have been three and a half weeks with Amex now.
Yeah, not a whole lot
Well, whether anyone has their eye on that or not, I truly do not have any comments. I don't know anything and as a result wouldn't feel good commenting.
All right, well mighty fine. Well, thank you very much.
You bet!
You have a follow-up question from the line of George Gardner with G.A.G. Investments & Assocs.
Good evening gentlemen again. Synteras. I wanted to ask you a question in reference to that partnership. General Clark, that formerly ran for President the last time around, I think that he's working with a consulting firm, and one of the things that he mentioned during the course of his conversation on CNN had reference to a lot of the government, and I'm not just talking about the Army but the military as well as other government agencies, were having difficulty with their data not being secured, and it appears that anybody and everybody was accessing some of that data, which is priority information in a lot of cases. Is that a niche that we are in or probably could serve, especially with our relationship with Synteras?
Absolutely, George. One of the things that Synteras is doing, there is one or more federal directives out right now, and you probably know better than I, they have a number and nomenclature, and I wish I could quote them to you, but they mandate that these problems that you just identified be corrected. And one of the things that Synteras is doing is looking at all those opportunities. What they will typically do is propose something that is far beyond Globalscape. And I'm pulling this right out of the air now; I'm not referencing anything live, or real or being worked on right now. But for example, they might pick up a proposal that has 500 laptops, and satellite communications, antennas, and a lot of, a huge project that a part of would be the software to drive certain things. They would make the proposal that would be from, you know, $500 million to $6 billion dollars. And if they get that order, then we would partner with them on providing the product part of their proposal that we can furnish. That's basically the way it will work.
Okay! I appreciate it! Thank you!
You're quite welcome! Thanks for the question!
You have a follow-up question from the line of Taylor Thompkins with Anderson Strudwick.
Thank you. In order to rollout Availl and to get it to the level that y'all want it to be at, do you foresee having to do another raise at some point later in the year or next year?
No. No, we're generating cash at a significant clip, and I think we have all of the technical ability that we need. We have all of the money that we need. What we need is just a little bit of time. There's several shortcuts we could've taken, Taylor, and probably some people who wish we had've. I think we're making the right decision in going forward slowly with something that we can be proud of. I think you will see some opportunities available to the Availl product line before too long that will be very exciting and will be driven because we chose to do things the right way.
Okay. All right! Fair enough! Thanks.
You have a question from the line of Doug Colton with America Growth Capital.
Hi Randy. Congratulations on another great quarter.
Thanks Doug. I got your email this morning. Appreciate it!
Thanks. Two quick questions. One, I wonder if you could give some insight into the industry verticals that were heavy buyers of the server-side FTP products during the 1st quarter, and I guess a follow-up to that would be could you give us some insight into the health of the market going forward, based on, you know, some client feedback.
Yes, we are focusing on, I guess it's not a major surprise to anybody, but we're focusing on the industries where securing information is being mandated, either by acts of Congress, or industry rules, but you know for a long time security was nice and expensive. Now it is mandatory. In a lot of industries you simply can't afford not to protect certain information. And those are the industries that we're basically focused on because we're getting help from the fed and state governments that are actually demanding that certain types of things be secure. For example, the health industry: I think if you guys have been in to a doctor's office lately, you know every time you go in there you sign a statement that says you know your HIPAA rights, and that everything about you will be secured and nobody will find it. Those things are helping us very much in the health industry. And finance, similar things going on. We're obviously spending a great deal of focus on the government because of some of the things that George mentioned earlier. There's some weaknesses and some mandates to get them fixed. So those are the kinds of things that we believe our very narrow focus on some very specific verticals is exactly what we need to be doing at this time. And that's what we continue to practice here. We're not interested in spreading out and getting broader at the time; we're interested in getting deeper and being the very best company out there so that when people think of securing transmissions over the Internet or securing files that they share, they automatically, as some of our customers are saying to their friends now, call Globalscape.
Okay. Thanks Randy. Appreciate it.
And since there are no more questions, do you have any closing remarks?
I would like to thank all of you for having the interest in GlobalSCAPE to call in and listen. I know that a lot of you, if not all of you, are investors and I thank you for that. I wish I had better news about the impact of our press release today. It drove humongous volume, but apparently there was some selling going on, too. I hope that you believe in Globalscape now and for the long-term. We are committed to being a solid corporate citizen, and we're committed to continuing to deliver the kind of results that you have grown accustomed to, and our very firm belief is if we do the right things in the right fashions, produce the right results, that the market will take care of itself because I don't know how to take care of it anyway.
Once again, thank you very much for calling, and I appreciate your support.
This concludes today's conference call.
cheers from Singapore
Oliver
( I have checked a few statements by listening the CC again, everything fine >:D 8) )
Thanks a lot for the conference call transcript la-onda :)
I guess that about 60% revenue CAGR over the next three years and a 25% net profit margin are pretty much a sure thing.
What could bolster these numbers, especially the revenue CAGR number, is the partnership with Synteras, the growth of the WAFS market and Availl's products, when they fully come into play (apparently there's a six month lag between the CEO's initial expectations and reality due to technical difficulties being solved now).
So, we have a stock that probably will be worth something like $12-$15 in late 2008, early 2009, without any positive surprise. If there's a positive surprise, for example, Synteras signing in a huge deal (in the order of the $500 M to $6 B given as an example, and say, GSB gets $100 M or $200 M of that), more big government orders (it seems 5 or 6 are in progress now) or the WAFS market grows at a stratospheric rate (like for example RVBD's valuation is implying), then we could have a much higher stock price.
Either way, GSB is an awesome stock to own for the long term. Just hold and forget.
Wonder why those odd prices we saw on Aug. 17th are not shown in yahoo
nor in stockcharts ???
Take a look
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
22/08/2007 4.25 4.38 4.09 4.19 19900 4.19
21/08/2007 4.3 4.93 3.91 4.29 84000 4.29
20/08/2007 4.05 4.43 4 4.3 49800 4.3
17/08/2007 3.83 4.48 3.4 3.91 110600 3.91
16/08/2007 3.76 3.76 2.85 3.32 283600 3.32
15/08/2007 4.14 4.14 3.61 3.65 383700 3.65
14/08/2007 4.87 4.87 4.02 4.15 315600 4.15
13/08/2007 5.5 5.9 4.8 4.87 280600 4.87
10/08/2007 4.71 5.5 4.65 5.3 103900 5.3
09/08/2007 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.7 9700 4.7
you can check this info at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GSB&a=07&b=9&c=2007&d=07&e=23&f=2007&g=d
But also this chart doesnt show that shadow
it'sdown 6.92 percent what gives?
The volatility is due to the fact that it's a low volume stock.
Several orders of 2000 stocks each or a 6000 one can make these fluctuations.
Observe that usual bid and ask volumes are rather low
Take a look here to see historical volues and prices
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GSB
QuoteWonder why those odd prices we saw on Aug. 17th are not shown in yahoo
nor in stockcharts ???
I guess they eliminated those spikes. I'll do that too so that we can have a more comprehensive chart, after all, it was all done with just 1,000 shares or so.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 23, 2007, 10:49:44 AM
it'sdown 6.92 percent what gives?
Nothing. It could be up 6.92% and that would mean ... nothing.
That buy the rumor, sell the news activity was extremely strong. If I start thinking that I could have taken a 40% plus profit and four days later buy the stock 50% lower I'll start :'(. These perfect trades can only happen in our minds (after the fact) or by luck, so I might as well just forget it ever happened and focus on the long term business fundamentals.
I guess people are selling because, at least over the short term, GSB passed its peak, since Q2 numbers were extremely positive because of what is perceived as being a one time event, that DoD $2.7 M order. But, as I read the conference call transcript, it appears to me that, even though the CEO didn't get compromised with it, there are 5 or 6 similar deals in the pipeline.
"Organic" growth is about 60% and positive "surprises" may elevate this number quite a lot. I feel completely confident and safe about holding GSB for the long term and I'll continue to do so, ignoring the short term volatility and spikes. One year from now we'll be getting spikes in the $10 - $15 range in my view.
Just a quick chart update for GSB:
Volatility remains very high and volume very low, not much to say from a TA perspective at this moment.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold GSB
Best regards,
Chart Update:
Nothing to comment, GSB was down 6% last Friday and now up 6%, volume remains low, and the chart doesn't say much at this point.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold GSB
Regards,
QuoteChart Update:
Nothing to comment, GSB was down 6% last Friday and now up 6%, volume remains low, and the chart doesn't say much at this point.
Yep, the chart doesn't say much when you're looking at low volume micro cap stocks, as the technical picture can change very rapidly when volume kicks in. GSB is the type of stock that may very well have 100% upside days (or a 50% decline in just four days :-X), if the right news is published at the right time.
My long term investment perspective on GSB is quite simple. Management is committed to keeping a 25% net profit margin over the long run and I see revenue CAGR of 75% over the next three years or so (with 60% "organic" growth and the other 15 pp coming from positive "surprises", like more Department of Defense orders or any business coming from the partnership with Synteras).
If we consider the company's $20 M revenue guidance for 2007 and my 75% revenue CAGR estimate, 2010 revenue will be $107.2 M. Applying a 25% net profit margin we get $26.8 M in net income. GSB belongs to an industry which has been highly valued by the market (take VDSI or RVBD as examples), so let's apply a 30 times earnings multiple to this net income and get to a market cap of $804 M for GSB in late 2010.
That's 11 times more than the current market cap of $70.7 M :o
Forget the short term swings, just buy and hold GSB.
The CEO said, at the latest conference call, that management wanted to go North to ring the AMEX bell, and here they go:
• GlobalSCAPE to Ring Opening Bell at the American Stock Exchange (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070905/20070905005221.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed 8:00am)
The man does what he says and has been delivering on all his promises. Interestingly enough, he gave us a clue on this press release:
"Since GlobalSCAPE's listing on the AMEX stock exchange, which occurred on July 19, 2007, we have seen great success in a short amount of time. We look forward to our continued success and sharing our story with a much larger group of investors."
Great success since July 19, 2007. However the stock price is about 20% below that day. Is the market telling us something here? Not at all, in my view, the market has been very inefficient pricing GSB, just note its insane swings. My take is sellers around current levels don't have a clue of what they're doing ... they look at the chart and buy and sell according to their "visions". Longer term they're just noise producers, without much material impact on the course of events.
Over the longer term, fundamentals, which are very attractive as you can see from reading this thread or just analyzing the financial trends and prospects, will prevail.
The CEO gave us a clue, but almost nobody saw it as volume remains low.
GSB is one of the stocks where I see the most potential in the Main Portfolio, nothing technical will shake me out of this wonderful technology story. I'll continue holding GSB.
anyone has 100k they can lend me so I can buy some GSB? ;D
I am only kidding by the way. ;D
check this out guys.
I'll spare you guys the entire post, but this is what I got from VV on GSB
Value GSB has a current value of $8.33/share. ;)
RV (Relative Value) GSB has an RV of 1.55, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00
RS (Relative Safety) GSB has an RS rating of 0.88, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00
RT (Relative timing) GSB has a Relative Timing rating of 0.74, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00
VST (VST-Vector) GSB has a VST rating of 1.07, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00
Recommendation GSB has a sell recommendation ???
Stop-price GSB has a stop of $3.90 which is its current price.
Earnings to Growth Rate GSB has a forecasted earnings to grwoth rate of 29.00%, which is excellent
EPS forecast on GSB is at $0.32 for the leading 12 months.
P/E GSB has a P/E of 12.19
EY Earnings Yield GSB has an EY of 8.22%
GPE Growth to P/E ratio GSB has a GPE rating of 2.39. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.89%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.35. Therefore GSB may be considered to be undervalued.
Sales Growth GSB has a sales growth of 162.00% per year. this is excellent ;D
ok I'll take 10%. just lend me 10k so I can buy some more GSB ;) ;D
Quoteok I'll take 10%. just lend me 10k so I can buy some more GSB ;) ;D
Hehe, if I were you I wouldn't invest with borrowed money, not even in GSB, which is a fantastic company.
I'm sure you know that's a computer generated analysis, which has several flaws. For example, the results are heavily influenced by GSB's latest quarter, which we know was impacted by what can be considered a one time big order (this is part of the reason the stock came off after the good news).
The good news for the future is that probably there will be more orders like that DoD order and just organic, internal growth is enough to support a much higher share price in my view.
GSB has a new CFO:
• GlobalSCAPE Announces New Chief Financial Officer (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070907/20070907005749.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Sep 7)
I don't think the news should have any impact on the share price.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
GSB fell 5% on Friday, rose 5% on Monday. These changes mean absolutely nothing for the future, they're short term "noise".
Fundamentally, for 2008, I see $40 M revenues and $10 M net income, which should put the market cap north of $200 M. Currently GSB's market cap is $70 M.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
GSB is a powerful long term growth story. In 2003 the company posted ($0.05) EPS. In 2004, $0.01. In 2005, $0.10 and 2006 $0.13.
In the first half of 2007 GSB already posted $0.14 EPS, and a research firm covering the company expects $0.26 EPS for the full year. GSB should be valued at least at 30 times earnings, considering other company's valuation operating in the same field, like RVBD. That means GSB should close the year around $7.8.
And for 2008? Well, for 2008 I expect $10 M in net income, which translates into about $0.54 EPS ... apply the same 30 times earnings multiple and get a $16 share price.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
GSB has a management that, sooner or later, delivers on its promises. First it was the big DoD order that never came, but after some time, it happened. Then, the AMEX listing promise, which was also delivered ... many OTCBB companies make this promise, but most fail to turn it into reality.
So GSB's management earned my long term trust. I believe the company will grow revenues by 75% a year and it will enjoy a fat net profit margin of 25% over the long term. And this makes GSB an extraordinary micro cap pick which still didn't materialize in a sharply higher stock price. But as GSB's management promises, it will, it will.
GSB has an habit of anticipating good news ... I don't know if the 4.9% advance yesterday, on higher volume, means something is about to be released or not, but there have been several hints that good news can hit the wires anytime now.
I guess Terliso will be back to GSB soon :)
Another positive day for GSB, with volume still low but rising. I'm feeling there's some positive press release on the horizon ... let's just hope the "buy the rumor, sell the news" isn't as strong as in the past, especially the "sell the news" part.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
opening bell ring belling video plus interview at the end:
http://www.amex.com/?href=/atamex/news/events/2007/br_GSB_091007.htm
from RB:
New software link on Globalscape homepage
Looking at their Home Page, I noticed we have a new link that wasn't there before, to the Availl CDP (continuous data protection) software (http: //www.globalscape. com/cdp/). That means the CDP software is up to Globalscape standards now, obviously. Furthermore, that also means another revenue stream linked up and being promoted both online as well as directly by the sales team.
During the last conference call, we were told Globalscape is going to release three WAFS features this quarter and early next quarter. This is the CDP software; WAFS was the first link to go up on the Globalscape home page. (I'm looking at a copy of the website from July 10, 2007 and see WAFS, but no CDP.)
Here's something from the conference call:
From the opening presentation on WAFS:
"Even though our Wide Area File Service, WAFS product, acquired with Availl, has not yet reached the revenue level we expect.
As our engineering team continues to bolster the products' core capabilities, and marketing implements new programs to penetrate the market, we believe our WAFS revenue expectations will be reached. We'll be adding three (3) new WAFS features later this year, and we believe that these additions will get us to the revenue levels we expected six months ago. I have to keep reminding myself that the acquisition is only nine months old."
From the Q&A Session:
"The Availl product still continues to excite us just as much as it ever did. I think that it is fair to say that maybe I was a little naive in not recognizing that two completely different coding schemes presented problems. We were not happy with the performance of Availl as it related to Globalscape's standards, and did a lot of homework in trying to bring that thing up to speed. And it just simply has taken longer than we thought. We have gone through the process of getting our engineers much more familiar with it, and getting involved. And right now, as I said earlier, I believe that we're in great shape. I believe that the three additions that we'll be announcing in this quarter and early next quarter will get us to the point that we thought we would be."
"...if you've been following our press releases over the last couple of years, we have tried to stay focused on the server and the WAFS side of the business, and to eliminate all of the minor distractions and products that have come on board over the last ten years and really don't play much of a role in who we are now, and as we eliminate those things, we have eliminated a lot of those licensing fees. So as Bernard mentioned earlier, about the only thing we do now is we pay for a part of EFT Server that we licensed from someone. It's not a big fee; I don't expect it to increase; and I expect us to maintain upper 90's unless something fairly dramatic occurs and we decide to license someone else's product to enhance what we're doing; right now I don't see that happening, and I think for the foreseeable future, 95 to 99 is probably where we're going to be."
"Actually the 2nd question was concerning the technical roadmap for the product. Whether you're planning to sell it only in conjunction with your secure file transfer product or are you still planning to sell it on a standalone basis?
No, we DEFINITELY plan to sell it on a standalone basis. Some of the things that we have been working on here that have added to the time here is the integration and being able to sell it AS one product. But Availl and the WAFS product has a very, very definite audience out there for a standalone basis. (Okay.) We expect to be doing that and we expect to be adding it to the enhanced file transfer product. Right now, they work very well independently. There's not that much required to make that a one system sort of operation, if you will, Raymond. We DEFINITELY believe that the market for a standalone Availl product is there, not only on the WAFS but the other products that came with the Availl package, that, we think CDP and those kinds of things, we think DEFINITELY have a market. We do believe that integrating them into EFT ALSO presents us an even higher scale of opportunities."
Congratulations are in order to Globalscape, in my opinion, for completing the upgrading of the CDP product. It's true they took more time than they initially desired, but they faced facts, got it right and didn't send out a premature product. In my view, I'd say it took an extra quarter over what I expected because I gave them through June to have it ready; (and they're working on the additional three WAFS features at the same time, you understand,) but you always have a margin of error timewise to be on the safe side in your R&D. So I've been fine with it. What would have upset me would have been if they hadn't faced the realities and just threw the products out there to make investors happy, which would be totally uncharacteristic of them.
Since the CDP link is up and online today, (I'm not sure exactly when it was linked up), I'm fairly certain the sales team in NY last week was promoting their CDP as well as all the other software products. It will be good to see when the WAFS features mentioned are announced.
;) ;)
p.s.: Bollinger Bands are very tight >:D
cheers
Oliver
Thanks for that link and the post la-onda :)
As the CEO says, "GSB stock is dramatically undervalued".
There weren't any news out and the stock declined 3% yesterday, on low volume. I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Still nothing new on GSB, as the stock went down 2.6%. After all, I guess I was wrong about positive news pending. Just the normal (but hardly predictable) back and forth action.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
GSB is undervalued but it looks like it needs some kind of catalyst to move it sharply higher before the end of the year. The catalyst could be another big order from a governmental institution or business coming from the partnership with Synteras (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/synteras-partners-globalscape-provide-secure/story.aspx?guid=%7BEE1C5D31%2D59E9%2D4732%2DA2E3%2D610F2E22046A%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN). If none of these happens, strong growth at the core business will keep improving the business fundamentals:
"I am especially excited about the way our core business, Secure File Transfer and File Sharing continues to explode," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "At 60% growth, we would have had a great quarter without the Defense Department order. Since inception in '03, our server-side business has more than doubled each year from $600 thousand in '04 to $2.9 million in '05, to $6 million in '06, and we'll exceed $13 million this year," stated Poole. "Those core products are fueling our steady, if not dramatic, growth and making it possible for us to participate in the very large order arenas that are not as predictable. We'll take advantage of those opportunities as they occur while focusing on the day-to-day activities that have gotten us here," concluded Poole.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Just 6,300 shares traded on GSB, so nothing changed, I'll keep holding the stock.
GSB continues to dance along the $4 line. No news out. I'll keep holding.
Still playing with the $4 level. No news out. I'll keep holding GSB.
GSB just granted 150,000 options to buy new shares at $4.25 to the company's CFO, which vest over a three year period. The news shouldn't have an impact on the share price, which sloed right at $4. I'll keep holding GSB.
75,000 shares traded on Friday is volume above average for GSB. Let's see if this is the start of a move away from the $4, which I expect to be on the upside. No news out over the weekend. i'll keep holding GSB.
Huge Volume today over 258,000 shares already and it has barely moved....very interesting
I think it's ready for the trip now ...
Quote from: eggman11 on October 01, 2007, 11:50:24 AM
Huge Volume today over 258,000 shares already and it has barely moved....very interesting
Indeed, that was the prelude for a 10.4% rally :)
GSB finally decided which way to go, and it was up! This is in tandem with fundamental trends.
Now I'll be curious to see if this move gets traction over the next few days and then if it was a "buy the rumor" of something, because, as we know, GSB has many cards in the hand and an explosive press release can be out any day now. This could be a new DoD massive order or something coming from the Synteras partnership.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Terliso, are you ready to get back into GSB or you'll leave it alone for now? Thanks :)
There wasn't any news out, so GSB's rally fizzled a bit by the end of the session. But I have no doubts there's going to be some positive news out soon, that volume doesn't lie. If not, the company's organic growth will keep it moving higher at an above average rate over the long term.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
QuoteBut I have no doubts there's going to be some positive news out soon, that volume doesn't lie.
I told you good news were coming out:
• GlobalSCAPE's Availl Continuous Data Protection (CDP) Software Now Available for Purchase Over the Internet (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071003/20071003005214.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed 8:30am)
Now let's hope there's no "sell the news" phenomenon, since there was somebody buying ahead of this press release. I guess this publicity on the company's products (which are awesome in my opinion) should drive the stock up nicely. We'll see what happens today.
Of course, I'll keep holding GSB for the long term whatever happens.
QuoteNow let's hope there's no "sell the news" phenomenon, since there was somebody buying ahead of this press release. I guess this publicity on the company's products (which are awesome in my opinion) should drive the stock up nicely. We'll see what happens today.
There was a little bit of sell the news, with GSB down 1.4% on the day. But the chart remained constructive. I don't know if the short term advance phase will continue or not, but I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Nice 3.2% advance day for GSB, even though volume was low. I feel some very positive news is looming ... I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
I'm glad GSB is holding on to its recent gains, not coming back down to the $4 area again. I'm expecting positive news before the next earnings release, let's see what happens. I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
today GSB moved up 13%.
whcih are your thoughts on this price increase?
Quote from: terainvestment on October 08, 2007, 04:20:51 PM
today GSB moved up 13%.
whcih are your thoughts on this price increase?
Hi terainvestment, you know that every trading day I comment on each and every one of the Main Portfolio's holdings, but thanks for asking anyway :)
The first thought that comes to my mind is that the chart doesn't know a damn thing about the future. Really, what did the guys selling on that mid August terrible sell off knew about GSB's fundamentals? Nothing. It is clear now it was short term technical noise.
Today's rise doesn't tell me much either, I ain't more bullish in GSB today than I was before.
Anyway, I'm sniffing positive news coming out soon ... this stock has this type of behavior, probably some employees spread the word out before the information gets to the public. Not that GSB needs positive surprises to go up, the stock is undervalued based solely on its long term fundamental trends.
The CEO said, over the latest conference call and on other investor presentations, that the company's intrinsic revenue CAGR is 60% and he expects growth to remain at that level for years to come. This is the minimum. But we can always get another Department of Defense giant order, or some business coming from the Synteras partnership, which would always be huge, considering Synteras is a $1 B private company (and GSB is just $87 M market cap).
I still believe we'll be around $8 by years end. I'm not sure what will drive us there, though, it can be so many things ... it's enough to know that GSB will rise a lot over the long term.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
We got more volume and the highest close ever for GSB's shares. I wonder if now we'll approach the $5.9 resistance level, which is the all time high on an intraday basis (if we forget that insane day when one of you guys was able to sell the stock above $7 on an intraday spike of 1,000 shares).
In GlobalScape's CEO words, "GSB is a gem, a deeply undervalued fast growing and profitable company". As I look at www.globalscape.com and see the company's products and services, I think it is an inevitability that demand for them will grow very rapidly for many years to come, as the internet takes a more and more important role in our everyday lives. In the future, there will be a lot more people working from their homes, instead of driving back and forth between home and the office, losing 1 1/2 hours or more per working day in transportation. Working from home increases productivity, quality of life and it's good for the environment, everybody wins. And now, with help from companies like GSB, it is technologically possible.
I believe the "work from home" trend is one that will dominate the World over the next 10 years. GSB is benefiting from this trend which is just starting.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
GSB analyst update:
Highlights
Since our initiation of coverage in July, the company has been listed on the AMEX and reported a strong Q2. During the three months ended June 30, 2007, GSB set new records of revenue and net income growth. Revenues for the quarter grew to $6,418,025 or 162% over the $2,445,327 from Q2 of last year.
During the quarter, GSB received its largest DOD order ever totaling $2.8 million. Factoring out the DOD order, revenues still grew 51% year-over-year. Net income increased 323% to $2,114,876, or $0.12, fully taxed, on both a basic and fully diluted basis. Since inception in 2003, the company's server-side business has more than doubled each year from $600,000 in 2004 to $2.9 million in 2005, to $6 million in 2006, and will exceed $13 million in 2007. Also in July, the company announced a strategic partnership with a new privately held Alaska-native corporation called Synteras (valued at $1 billion). This partnership increases the company's ability to offer government and commercial clients a proven and scalable solution to assure individual and enterprise information are secure, safe, and retrievable on an around-the-clock basis.
Furthermore, these governmental projects which Synteras is bidding on are in the range of $100 million to $400 million in scope. If just a small part of these projects includes GSB, it could positively impact the company's business.
Our Thoughts
On the Q2 conference call, management reiterated their guidance of $20 million in revenues for 2007. We believe the recent weakness in the stock was due to slower than expected ramp up of the Availl business and that Q3 will be down sequentially from Q2. Furthermore, with momentum investors now out of the stock, we believe there is now a stronger base of investors whom understand there will be some near-term "lumpiness" and over time this will become less of a concern.
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and 12-month target price of $8 based on 25X our 2008 earnings estimate of $0.33, fully taxed.
link:
http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/research_report_pages/07.10-05_GlobalSCAPE.pdf
chart:
Thanks for the always valuable information la-onda (applause) :)
That text is a nice summary of GSB's fundamental story.
The stock, when looking at the $5.9 all time high and the general market weakness, decided to dive 8.8%, on a 38.2%, almost 50%, Fibonacci retracement, which is a healthy correction. No big deal as far as I'm concerned.
I think GSB should achieve $8 before 12 months because it should have a higher than 25 forward earnings multiple, to be in tandem with other companies in the same sector, like RVBD, for example, which trades at 59 times 2008 EPS estimates (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=RVBD).
If GSB were to trade at 59 times the $0.33 2008 EPS estimate, it would be trading at $19.47 :o
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
GSB is just taking a breather, I have no doubts it will make a bullish breakout above $5.9 anytime soon. I just love the company's products (http://www.globalscape.com/) and I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
GSB is about to challenge the all time high at $5.9 and in my view, it will surpass it. I still haven't given up on my expectation for $8 a share on year's end. And there's no need of positive news to do it, multiple expansion is enough. But of course, I'll welcome positive news if it happens.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
GSB continues to challenge its all time high at $5.9 without any news release out. We've already seen that just multiple expansion can take GSB towards $8 still in 2007.
Instead of being stopped out at break even I now have a 50% profit to show. But it doesn't always happens this way, of course. I think fundamental analysis has its value, and technical analysis also has value, even though I've been moving more and more towards being a fundamental analyst instead of a technical one, because I need long term analysis tools to be a long term investor.
Fundamentally, it appears to me that the best is yet to come for GSB and I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.
GSB closed at a new all time high with volume above average. This doesn't tell me much, as the 50% drawdown in mid-August didn't mean anything ... I need to be coherent in my analysis.
I don't know if GSB is moving higher simply because of multiple expansion or because there's positive news pending. I hope it is just multiple expansion, so that we don't get another violent "sell the news" phenomenon.
I see $8 a share before 2007 closes and much more thereafter. I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
...i think we have a confirmed breakout. ;D
The baby is back in the right channel. Welcome back, you lost soul! :D
finally rewarded for patience! next...CIMT!
David, I know you dont like to get too excited when things go well, but for today at least allow yourself the indulgence of looking in the mirror and saying " I'm the MAN!!!"
Up 4.5% on a FULLY invested portfolio in just one day where the markets were basically flat, that is outstanding, applaud! >:D ;D >:D :o
Great job, David!
Now we need to work hard to make sure Wall Street does not claim our earnings back. ;)
Quote from: tokyopua on October 18, 2007, 04:08:26 PM
David, I know you dont like to get too excited when things go well, but for today at least allow yourself the indulgence of looking in the mirror and saying " I'm the MAN!!!"
Up 4.5% on a FULLY invested portfolio in just one day where the markets were basically flat, that is outstanding, applaud! >:D ;D >:D :o
You're a nice guy Tokyopua, thanks for your kind words :)
But never, the day I do that, I'll be lost. As losses don't diminish me as a person, profits don't make me greater either. I'm exactly the same man when I lose or win.
Even though I love studying and investing in the stock market, I'll never let it rule my life again.
Going for a karate class now, see ya :D
Didn't have karate class, the Sensei didn't show up, but it was for a good reason: He just came back to Portugal from a tournament in London where he became Champion of the World :o
Going back to the stock market and our little issue, I remember perfectly when, five years ago, I made my first $100 K in the stock market. Man, I felt like I was the king of the world, as I was driving my Porsche to sunset. I felt I knew it all, about the market and life. I was the Master!
Six months later I was broke. Got depressive. Cried many nights, as I couldn't make my money back ... I felt like a failure.
On a much bigger scale, you guys should learn about Livermore's life. At several points in his life he was one of the top 10 richest men in the world. He was also broke several times. Every time he was on top he thought he finally had figured out the game and felt like "the MAN". He loved smelling his millions and the importance money brought him. In a sentence, he was more of a man when he was rich than when he was poor.
After 40 years plus in the game and as he was broke (again), he shot himself and left the following suicide note:
I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure!
To never feel like "a failure", you can never feel like "the MAN". This is the most important lesson I've ever learned about the stock market and life and now I'm passing it on to you. Take it in your heart in every moment and you'll live a much happier life. You take care :)
Quote from: David Randolph on October 18, 2007, 05:59:56 PM
Didn't have karate class, the Sensei didn't show up, but it was for a good reason: He just came back to Portugal from a tournament in London where he became Champion of the World :o
Going back to the stock market and our little issue, I remember perfectly when, five years ago, I made my first $100 K in the stock market. Man, I felt like I was the king of the world, as I was driving my Porsche to sunset. I felt I knew it all, about the market and life. I was the Master!
Six months later I was broke. Got depressive. Cried many nights, as I couldn't make my money back ... I felt like a failure.
On a much bigger scale, you guys should learn about Livermore's life. At several points in his life he was one of the top 10 richest men in the world. He was also broke several times. Every time he was on top he thought he finally had figured out the game and felt like "the MAN". He loved smelling his millions and the importance money brought him. In a sentence, he was more of a man when he was rich than when he was poor.
After 40 years plus in the game and as he was broke (again), he shot himself and left the following suicide note:
I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure! I'm a failure!
To never feel like "a failure", you can never feel like "the MAN". This is the most important lesson I've ever learned about the stock market and life and now I'm passing it on to you. Take it in your heart in every moment and you'll live a much happier life. You take care :)
I did recall your story about making that money then going broke, so that is in part why I was sort of tounge and cheek saying this, I knew you wouldnt take the opportunity to gloat, but still wanted to make you smile nonetheless.
I am a bit of a hedonist by nature, so I think I still allow myself to be happy about good things, but dont worry overly much about bad things. Nor do I think Im invincible when things are going good, rather I realize that is when one can be most vulnerable.
For example, last week on the big up day my portfolio was up 7.5%. I was happy, but unlike a year ago I didnt go out and start buying things to celebrate or whatever, I just let the feeling energize me for other pursuits. Moderation in everything.
Anyway, that is just my approach, I am still amazed at you being a master of what we call "state control" in NLP. With that kind of discipline, you will surely become a master of karate as well, and sounds like you have an awesome sensei as well. We have something in common there, in Japan I studied under an 8th degree judo black belt who was twice world champion. He was twice my age almost, about 15 Kg less weight than me and shorter by about 12 cm, but used to simply throw me almost effortlessly during the few times I had the honor to spar with him. Simply amazing mastery, awe inspiring actually...
Unlike you, tokyopua, I usually experience wild mood swings. I feel euphoria when things are splendid and begin to spill negative energy when things turn sour. By patiently studying and using David's techniques, I feel a lot better about many other things in life now. Since here we deal with the polygamy of human psychology, so to speak, the experience can apply to other aspects in life. For instance, I learn to be more resolute and take action when necessary, without procrastination. Fight the devil of uncertainty inside my left lobe when the right lobe dictates "go".
Last week could completely relax while traveling in Bavaria with the family and not worry about what the stocks are doing. Just told myself, "they are all sound investments, carefully chosen and monitored by David, so take it easy." It worked.
Our current dream (mine and my wife's - and we always have one in store :)) is to move to Munchen, Germany from Massachusetts. When I tell her our $$$ savings go down, while Euro keeps going up, she looks at me as if I were dumb and says, "we'll make a lot of money and move to Germany." She says it as if it is obvious and can't go any other way. I enjoy the feeling of believing her. If she is so sure, why can't I be? Hedonism, ha? - sounds good! :)
David, though I wanted to say wow on your big gains, I had now much bigger wow on reading your post about the man and the failure. Sometimes I think your humbleness is more valuable then your investment skills. Keep shining in life and market.
Can not agree more. David is really good! !
Quote from: stocky on October 19, 2007, 01:09:10 AM
David, though I wanted to say wow on your big gains, I had now much bigger wow on reading your post about the man and the failure. Sometimes I think your humbleness is more valuable then your investment skills. Keep shining in life and market.
Quote from: berloga on October 18, 2007, 08:33:44 PM
Unlike you, tokyopua, I usually experience wild mood swings. I feel euphoria when things are splendid and begin to spill negative energy when things turn sour. By patiently studying and using David's techniques, I feel a lot better about many other things in life now. Since here we deal with the polygamy of human psychology, so to speak, the experience can apply to other aspects in life. For instance, I learn to be more resolute and take action when necessary, without procrastination. Fight the devil of uncertainty inside my left lobe when the right lobe dictates "go".
Last week could completely relax while traveling in Bavaria with the family and not worry about what the stocks are doing. Just told myself, "they are all sound investments, carefully chosen and monitored by David, so take it easy." It worked.
Our current dream (mine and my wife's - and we always have one in store :)) is to move to Munchen, Germany from Massachusetts. When I tell her our $$$ savings go down, while Euro keeps going up, she looks at me as if I were dumb and says, "we'll make a lot of money and move to Germany." She says it as if it is obvious and can't go any other way. I enjoy the feeling of believing her. If she is so sure, why can't I be? Hedonism, ha? - sounds good! :)
Hi Berloga,
I have to agree with you that David's new approach has increased my quality of life, I spend far less time glued to my stock screen. This is great since I moved to Los Angeles last month (from Boston, BTW) and cant get up in time for the open (more like "dont want to get up" actually, I mean its PHYSICALLY possible for me to get up in time for it lol). This long term approach makes more sense each day, as long as the bull market continues.
Hope you figure things out with Germany, I have been to Munich and had some GREAT memories in the Haufbrau House!!!
Go GSB by the way, gotta keep kind of on subject here lol!
QuoteOur current dream (mine and my wife's - and we always have one in store :)) is to move to Munchen, Germany from Massachusetts. When I tell her our $$$ savings go down, while Euro keeps going up, she looks at me as if I were dumb and says, "we'll make a lot of money and move to Germany." She says it as if it is obvious and can't go any other way. I enjoy the feeling of believing her. If she is so sure, why can't I be? Hedonism, ha? - sounds good! :)
Hehe, women are mostly more confident and optimistic than men. I wonder why would someone want to move to Germany, it is such a cold country ... but of course you have your reasons.
Me and my wife used to have that type of dreams too ... "move to Brazil", "buy that huge house", "buy 4 great cars", "never work again and just enjoy life" ... she still has this type of talk, but much less though. I must say that I've learned not to think in these terms. I'm happy with what I have and with what I am now. I drive a cheap car and ... I don't feel the need to buy a new one. This is in sharp contrast with the past, when I constantly thought about things.
Several books and experienced men helped me, for example, The Power of Now, from Eckart Tolle, and Intuition - Seeing beyond logic from Osho.
It has been a prolonged process but I can honestly say that I've never been so happy in my life.
Anyway, going back to the subject of this thread, GSB. I guess it is multiple expansion driving it higher, because there wasn't any news out to justify the rise. The company's main problem, several times pointed out by the CEO, was the lack of visibility. First because it was an OTCBB traded small cap, then because it had a sharp sell off right after entering the AMEX (for no particular reason, just because it was illiquid).
Now, with the stock closing at a new all time high with volume above average and a 15.8% rise, I'm sure it will show up on everybody's radar. And they'll like what they'll see, an undervalued, fast growing innovator in the software industry.
Even without any meaningful fundamental improvement, GSB could move towards $18, just due to multiple expansion. But we can always get positive news, either another huge government order, or business coming from Synteras, as we've seen.
Below $16 I won't even consider taking profits. I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
David I have only one word to say about your work (( Excellent Work)) :)
keep it up
Quote from: Garoh on October 19, 2007, 08:28:09 AM
David I have only word word to say about your work (( Excellent Work)) :)
keep it up
Thanks for your kind words Garoh :)
My valuation model says GSB is worth $16.81 a share today (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GSB&portfolio=main), so I won't consider taking profits at current levels.
Anyway, I wish I can hold GSB beyond that. It all depends on the incoming fundamental information.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
>:D >:D >:D
great news imho
cheers
Oliver
1)
Friday, October 19, 2007
Tech firm expanding office space, eying more acquisitions
San Antonio Business Journal - by Catherine Dominguez
San Antonio-based GlobalSCAPE is continuing to prepare for several more acquisitions in 2008 and is moving to a larger office space to accommodate that upcoming growth.
The company is planning a January move to a new location at 4500 Lockhill Selma, just inside Loop 1604 on the city's far North Side. The new space will span close to 25,000 square feet, almost double what the company is currently occupying at 6000 Northwest Parkway on the Northwest Side.
"We are finishing up a 10 year lease at our current location," says Randy Poole, president and CEO of GlobalSCAPE. "They didn't have the space available to let us grow, so we are making a move."
Although Poole decline to release details, he says his company is looking at two possible acquisitions in 2008.
2)
GSB: Soleil Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $12; Analyst Notes
Friday , October 19, 2007 08:05ET
Issuer: GlobalSCAPE, Inc (AMEX: GSB)
Analyst Firm: Soleil Securities Corporation
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $12.00
Analyst Comments: The firm believes the company has the opportunity to grow revenues around 35%-40% annually and is an attractive acquisition candidate for suitors who address the corporate networking infrastructure marketplace. >:D >:D >:D
link:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2007/10/22/story7.html?ana=from_rss
this chart is awesome:
Thanks for bringing these interesting news La-Onda :)
Tech firm expanding office space, eying more acquisitions (http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2007/10/22/story7.html?ana=from_rss)
The move to a larger office is a natural one to accommodate more people as the company grows.
I hope the two planned acquisitions for 2008 are accretive to earnings and not dilutive.
10/19/2007 (08:05 ET) GSB: Soleil Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $12; Analyst Notes - Knobias (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.d608bbe9eb05bee33bc19b7baa16dc09ed37665ce0d66cf0d345f23ae4a67eb9)
Knobias is a great website, thanks again for this link la-onda. Now, 35-40% revenue CAGR is conservative, I'm expecting 60% revenue CAGR not counting with more potential big government orders, not counting with any business coming from the Synteras partnership and not counting with possible future acquisitions.
I have 75% revenue CAGR in my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GSB&portfolio=main) because I consider that these three "surprise segments" will add at least 15 percentage points to revenue CAGR over the next 3 years.
I believe GSB will be above $12 twelve months from now.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
please be informed about the October roadshow slides.....
part 1
;)
please be informed about the October roadshow slides.....
part 2 incl. chart
best regards
Oliver
:D
Thanks for these slides la-onda :) (applaud)
I especially love the first slide ;) ... but there's nothing new or that we didn't knew already in this presentation. Anyway, it will bring GSB what GSB lacks, visibility.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term, selling below $16 isn't a possibility in my mind.
I believe the enterprise of the future will have people working in a more disperse way, and many of them working from home and they will all need to be connected in an effective way.
Also, this Continuous Data Protection product is a real need of the present and it can only keep growing:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41406;image)
I almost hope GSB doesn't go up too fast and keeps giving me time to raise my fundamental estimates (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=GSB&portfolio=main), because I would really love to own this stock for several years.
As it is now, selling below $16 isn't a possibility.
Let's consider other companies (larger), in the same space as GSB.
For example, RVBD, market cap is $2.39 B, 2007 sales of $231 M, so Price to Sales Ratio is 10.3.
Another, even bigger, example, VMW. Market cap is $46.3 B :o, 2007 sales are estimated to be $1.28 B, so the sales multiple is 36 :o
And our little GSB, $122 M market cap with 2007 revenue of $20 M. Sales multiple is about 6.
And GSB isn't growing less or has lower profit margins than the other two, no. It is just much smaller and cheaper.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
Excerpt from an IBD article last Friday:
-------------------
Randy Poole, president and chief executive of GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB - News), a software firm in San Antonio, Texas:
"After the company had four years of flat sales at $5 million, the owners hired me in 2003 as a consultant to grow revenue. I concluded there was a market for creating a server to sell to businesses, and I said the company could go from $5 million to $50 million in six years.
"By January 2004, the owners made me CEO to implement that goal. They said, 'Let's take a shot at it.'
"I kept telling our people, 'We're our own worst enemy. We need to believe we can do things differently.' Some didn't buy that. On my first day as CEO, I released nine employees and reduced our expenses and run rate to get this plan off the ground.
"Nearly four full years into the plan, we're right on target. We project $20 million for 2007."
----------------------------
The guy fired 9 people on his first day as CEO. Thats Draconian for a small company like theirs, but he clearly means business!
Here's a Fool article from today touting GSB:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/10/30/wall-streets-buy-list.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/10/30/wall-streets-buy-list.aspx)
QuoteThe guy fired 9 people on his first day as CEO. Thats Draconian for a small company like theirs, but he clearly means business!
Yeah, Randy has been doing a terrific job managing GSB.
Quote from: Kublakhan on October 30, 2007, 04:43:50 PM
Here's a Fool article from today touting GSB:
• Wall Street's Buy List (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=12dntpovd/*http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/10/30/wall-streets-buy-list.aspx?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y)
at Motley Fool (Tue, Oct 30)
Thanks for bringing us this article Kublakhan :)
It seems GSB is starting to get some awareness from the part of investors, which is good. But there are some things to worry about inside this article:
«Like coachmax said, GlobalSCAPE posted 162% revenue growth last quarter. More impressive still, net profit increased 323%, and according to Yahoo! Finance, the company has nearly doubled its annual profits every year for the past five years. Yowza!»
This Fool didn't realize Q2 numbers were influenced by a large one time order coming from the Department of Defense. Even though there can be more big orders like this, it is unlikely that there was one in Q3 (very unlikely, or management would have announced it).
I truly love GSB as a long term investment, but I'm also pretty sure Q3 will be a disappointment for many recent investors. I fear a sell off when the company reports results.
I hesitate between considering taking profits before earnings, to buy back the shares on the pullback, or just hold for the long term disregarding short term swings. Usually I'm inclined for this second hypothesis, but seeing the hype and misinformation around GSB ... well, I'm going to think this over for a few more days, I still have time, and maybe we'll see $8 over the short term.
I'll keep holding GSB.
QuoteI hesitate between considering taking profits before earnings, to buy back the shares on the pullback, or just hold for the long term disregarding short term swings. Usually I'm inclined for this second hypothesis, but seeing the hype and misinformation around GSB ... well, I'm going to think this over for a few more days, I still have time, and maybe we'll see $8 over the short term.
The following is GSB's quarterly EPS numbers:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41562;image)
EPS was $0.03 for the seven quarters prior to Q2 2007, which was heavily influenced by the following one time order:
DoD order: $2.5 M (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000110465907036287/a07-13391_18k.htm)
However, Randy Poole, GSB's CEO, has been reiterating the $20 M revenue guidance, and in the first half GSB's revenues were just $10.04 M. So the CEO has been saying there will be $10 M more in the second half, even without any new huge order (none was announced in the 2nd half).
I must say that I was really shaking here, considering the company could go back to the $0.03 EPS per quarter number in Q3 and a sell off would follow. But this CEO has been delivering on all his promises, so I have no reason to believe he's lying about the $20 M revenue number for 2007.
In the 1st half GSB earned 15 cents per share, so, if the same $10 M in revenue translate into another $0.15 EPS, the company will earn $0.30 in 2007. This should put the stock at least at $9 over the next 6 months.
You know I love GSB for the long term and I trust the company's CEO and his guidance to hold the stock over the short term, even though there's misleading information on the internet pumping GSB (which ignores the fact that Q2 was heavily influenced by a one time show).
some more facts:
GlobalSCAPE Connectivity Software Reduces Bandwidth with Byte-Level Differencing
Sean Snyder, Associate Editor -- 11/2/2007 7:24:00 AM
GlobalSCAPE's Wide Area File Services (WAFS) software alleviates challenges associated with coordinating the development of one project file, such as a CAD file or an Excel document, over the Internet and between multiple users. The WAFS software mirrors a file set and is stored locally on each of the users' machines or servers. When one user opens the local file, the software pings the mirrored locations and locks the file from being edited by other users. Users can still access the file and "save as," but they are unable to edit and save the original file until the first user saves and closes the file.
According to GlobalSCAPE Marketing Director John G. Kelly, the WAFS software uses byte-level differencing in order to minimize data transfer loads. Byte level differencing doesn't transfer the entire file; it only transfers the data changes to the file to save time with larger files. "The software is smart enough to be able to see that that's the change that has happened," says Kelly. GlobalSCAPE also provides Continuous Data Protection (CDP) software, which provides a constant backup of designated drives or servers that like the WAFS software makes changes at the byte level. The user needs to establish a local or remote location for the data to back up. "Once you've got our Continuous Data Protection in place, whenever somebody is making a change you are capturing that change, and then at the central location for our CDP product we retain versions so anytime there's a version that's changed, we keep it," says Kelly. The WAFS software costs approximately $5,990 for the two-agent minimum and the CDP software is available for approximately $1,990, which includes one source agent and the backup. They are available together for $6,990 as the Avail Enterprise package , which supports two systems. Clients include Ericksen Roed, URS, Earth Tech, Carter and Burgess, Ammann and Whitney, Bohannon Huston and Fuscoe Engineering.
http://www.designnews.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6496844
Thanks for the info la-onda :)
No doubt GSB has valuable software products.
My latest update has my reasoning to why I'll hold GSB over the next couple of quarters, despite some bulls bought the stock based on erroneous information, namely they ignored the fact that the 2nd quarter results were very influenced by a one time order coming from the DoD.
But because the CEO gave a $20 M revenue guidance for the full year of 2007, which is roughly double of the revenues the company had during the 1st half, I believe organic growth will be strong enough to mitigate the importance of that giant order, and therefore bulls might be right even as they ignore some relevant information.
Longer term GSB has the potential to be a multi-billion dollar software company, if we give it five years. I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Tokyopua brought us an excerpt of an interview GSB's CEO gave to IBD, where he says the following:
«"Nearly four full years into the plan, we're right on target. We project $20 million for 2007."»
GSB had revenue of $10.04 M in the first half, so he's giving us another $10 M as guidance for the 2nd half. With about the same revenue level I expect GSB to earn the same EPS as in the 1st half, that is, $0.15, to a full year 2007 EPS of $0.30.
Now the question is, will Randy Poole deliver on this promise? It isn't easy, because the 1st half was heavily influenced by a one time order coming from the DoD. I wonder if the company has another huge order in the pipeline or if the $10 M guidance for the 2nd half is just based on normal growth?
Anyway, this CEO has delivered on all his past promises (even if sometimes with some delay).
Longer term I believe GSB's products (http://www.globalscape.com/) are just terrific and I see multi-billion dollar value in them, if everything keeps going well.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
nice coverage:
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=12142
>:D
Quote from: la-onda on November 06, 2007, 07:47:23 PM
nice coverage:
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=12142
>:D
Indeed la-onda, great work :)
I've noticed a little, but important, mistake: On page 11 the analyst forecasts just $2.6 M in revenue for Q3 2007, while on page 13 it forecasts $5 M (I think she put Q3 2006 revenue on page 11 by mistake).
Also, I see she's quite optimistic for the remainder of 2007, as she expects full year EPS of $0.31. The research report doesn't explain how GSB will have the same revenue in the 2nd half as in the 1st without any huge single order. I wonder if this is because of Avail's contribution? Will check this out for the next update.
But, for 2008, she's very conservative, expecting just 27% revenue growth. I believe GSB is still so small and its markets have so much room to grow that I don't see any problem for the company in growing, say, 50% plus on top of 2007 revenue levels.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
QuoteAlso, I see she's quite optimistic for the remainder of 2007, as she expects full year EPS of $0.31. The research report doesn't explain how GSB will have the same revenue in the 2nd half as in the 1st without any huge single order. I wonder if this is because of Avail's contribution? Will check this out for the next update.
Here's the press release announcing Availl's acquisition in September 25th, 2006:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41718;image)
I would like to highlight the following information:
«"We are excited about the synergies created between these two companies," stated Randy Poole, President and CEO of GlobalSCAPE. "Besides state-of-the-art technology, Availl has very talented people; we welcome them to our team and look forward to working with them.
Availl is profitable and growing rapidly. We expect this deal to be accretive for GlobalSCAPE immediately."»
If Availl was profitable and accretive for GSB back in September 2006, I conclude that the $10 M in revenue expected for the 2nd half of 2007 won't come because of Availl's consolidation, which was done more than a year ago.
I just hope that Randy Poole doesn't fail on this one, or GSB will surely tank and it will be hard to recover later. The earnings multiple will be compressed for a long time due to lack of trust in management. I hope he delivers, like he has done in the past.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
sorry gang, another coverage:
Research Coverage Initiated on GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (AMEX: GSB)
MADISON, MS--(Marketwire - November 8, 2007) - SmallCapBullets.com, a new and unique small cap research service, is pleased to announce new research coverage on GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (AMEX: GSB). The complete ORS report, first published to subscribers on 10/08/2007, is available at:
http://www.smallcapbullets.com/index.htm?refID=gsb01
Information Security Threats Transfer Growth & Opportunity for GSB
ABSTRACT: If you are looking for small cap growth in the technology sector, look no further than GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (AMEX: GSB). Information security used to be a luxury; now it is a mandate across a number of industries and government. GSB used to be a consumer-oriented FTP software provider; now the Company is fast becoming a leader in secure file management to enterprise-class customers and even the U.S. Government. A few years ago, GSB began to shift its focus from the consumer segment, where its CuteFTP software had become the most popular file transfer application on the market, to medium and enterprise commercial customers. And guess what? The move is paying off big-time. For the last three years in a row, GSB has grown revenues at strong double-digit rates and we expect FY07 earnings to double FY06. Despite impressive earnings growth (that we expect to continue), GSB trails other software provider multiples, with less growth, by -50% or more. The growing number of mandates and data security scrutiny is opening up tremendous opportunities like the Company has never seen, and GSB's reputation and referral business grows with every successful customer experience. We expect to see a surge in both government and corporate spending relating to secure file management over the next few years, and GSB is perfectly positioned to capture a leadership position in this marketplace and continue providing investors with excellent results.
>:D >:D
Do you think is better to sell half the position before earnings or hold it?
I have a large position on GSB (more than double beside other 3sof stocks)
Quote from: terainvestment on November 09, 2007, 06:11:18 AM
Do you think is better to sell half the position before earnings or hold it?
I have a large position on GSB (more than double beside other 3sof stocks)
Tough to know, but yeah, in this case I think there's a relevant possibility of a disappointment, because everybody is talking $5 M revenue and $0.07 - $0.08 EPS and I don't see where they'll come from. I'm very confident in GSB for the long term, but the next earnings release is a serious challenge and I wouldn't be surprised if GSB had a pullback towards its ascending 50 days SMA.
I'll hold my full position for the long term, but if you're overexposed my advice is for you to take profits in half of your position before the next earnings release and then, if there's an earnings disappointment or a sell the news phenomenon (like the one after the Q2 earnings release), buy back around the 50 days, currently at $5.23. Good luck :)
GSB's 3rd quarter earnings and conference call are coming. I hope management delivers about $5 M revenue and $0.07 - $0.08 EPS, or the stock will go down. Longer term I'm a firm believer in the company's products, so I'll keep holding GSB for the long term, whatever 3rd quarter earnings are.
GSB, now the largest holding of the Main, actually went up a bit yesterday, or else I can't imagine what would have happened, a -10% day ???
Results will be coming out on Wednesday and I fear them ... perhaps that's an indication that the stock will actually go up after earnings, since where I had the highest expectations ... stocks went down.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 13, 2007, 04:59:49 AM
GSB, now the largest holding of the Main, actually went up a bit yesterday, or else I can't imagine what would have happened, a -10% day ???
Results will be coming out on Wednesday and I fear them ... perhaps that's an indication that the stock will actually go up after earnings, since where I had the highest expectations ... stocks went down.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
David I see you'er a bit worry of the 3Q result :)
I have no idea about it but the chart says $9.40 in hand very soon ;D
we just need to wait and see , but will they announce the result tomorrow before or after the market ??
thanks
Quotewe just need to wait and see , but will they announce the result tomorrow before or after the market ??
It will be on Thursday after the close:
• GlobalSCAPE to Host Quarterly Conference Call (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071109/20071109005395.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Nov 9)
Do you think it is a bad idea to sell GSB prior to earnings, especially on a good day like today? It seems as though most stocks lately when earnings come out go down. Is it a bad idea to lock in a 100% gain and then hopefully buy back cheaper assuming earnings looks good. I know there is the risk that it goes up after earnings, but just haven't been seeing much of that lately.
Quote from: das317 on November 14, 2007, 10:45:39 AM
Do you think it is a bad idea to sell GSB prior to earnings, especially on a good day like today? It seems as though most stocks lately when earnings come out go down. Is it a bad idea to lock in a 100% gain and then hopefully buy back cheaper assuming earnings looks good. I know there is the risk that it goes up after earnings, but just haven't been seeing much of that lately.
I'll remain invested for the long term with my full position, but perhaps selling half now isn't a bad idea. There's a risk of a disappointment or strong profit taking, since the stock has been up so much.
I hope GSB makes a bullish breakaway gap tomorrow and keeps trending up, but I imagine that will be hard to accomplish.
Good luck :)
Quote from: das317 on November 14, 2007, 10:45:39 AM
Do you think it is a bad idea to sell GSB prior to earnings, especially on a good day like today? It seems as though most stocks lately when earnings come out go down. Is it a bad idea to lock in a 100% gain and then hopefully buy back cheaper assuming earnings looks good. I know there is the risk that it goes up after earnings, but just haven't been seeing much of that lately.
I sold my entire position of GSB today before earnings for a couple of reasons:
The stock has had a big run up recently and some of that was to publicity conerning their spectacular 2nd quarter, which was due in large part to a one time DOD order, so incomparison this quarter will look a lot weaker and with the low the float, we could easily drop 2 points or more. The upside surprise potential on the earnings is very limited, therefore the possible amount to gain tomorrow after earnings is extreme low compared to the amount it could lose, so I decided to sell today.
Overall I really like the stock and am looking to buy back in after tomorrow earnings announcement.
P.S.
Thanks David for you quick info on GIGM CC. I bought back in today a 19.07 ;D
QuoteThanks David for you quick info on GIGM CC. I bought back in today a 19.07 ;D
Good move, you're already up 10% plus ;)
QuoteI sold my entire position of GSB today before earnings for a couple of reasons:
The stock has had a big run up recently and some of that was to publicity conerning their spectacular 2nd quarter, which was due in large part to a one time DOD order, so incomparison this quarter will look a lot weaker and with the low the float, we could easily drop 2 points or more. The upside surprise potential on the earnings is very limited, therefore the possible amount to gain tomorrow after earnings is extreme low compared to the amount it could lose, so I decided to sell today.
Overall I really like the stock and am looking to buy back in after tomorrow earnings announcement.
I understand your decision, I have doubts myself ... I'm basing my "hold" decision on the revenue guidance the CEO gave of $20 M for the full year of 2007, meaning $10 M in the 2nd half. Before the DoD order (that is, in Q1 2007) the company had quarterly revenue of $3.6 M, so I'm curious to where the additional $1.4 M will come from, since there wasn't any big deal announced.
It's about time for the trend becoming a friend again, but I agree with you, the odds favor a sell off after earnings. I would view any sell off as a long term buying opportunity so I'll just keep holding for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 02, 2007, 05:54:03 AM
QuoteI hesitate between considering taking profits before earnings, to buy back the shares on the pullback, or just hold for the long term disregarding short term swings. Usually I'm inclined for this second hypothesis, but seeing the hype and misinformation around GSB ... well, I'm going to think this over for a few more days, I still have time, and maybe we'll see $8 over the short term.
The following is GSB's quarterly EPS numbers:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41562;image)
EPS was $0.03 for the seven quarters prior to Q2 2007, which was heavily influenced by the following one time order:
DoD order: $2.5 M (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000110465907036287/a07-13391_18k.htm)
However, Randy Poole, GSB's CEO, has been reiterating the $20 M revenue guidance, and in the first half GSB's revenues were just $10.04 M. So the CEO has been saying there will be $10 M more in the second half, even without any new huge order (none was announced in the 2nd half).
I must say that I was really shaking here, considering the company could go back to the $0.03 EPS per quarter number in Q3 and a sell off would follow. But this CEO has been delivering on all his promises, so I have no reason to believe he's lying about the $20 M revenue number for 2007.
In the 1st half GSB earned 15 cents per share, so, if the same $10 M in revenue translate into another $0.15 EPS, the company will earn $0.30 in 2007. This should put the stock at least at $9 over the next 6 months.
You know I love GSB for the long term and I trust the company's CEO and his guidance to hold the stock over the short term, even though there's misleading information on the internet pumping GSB (which ignores the fact that Q2 was heavily influenced by a one time show).
Q3 numbers are out:
GSB: Q3 EPS 4c vs 3c Misses 5c EstWednesday, November 14, 2007 17:10ET
QUARTER RESULTS
GlobalSCAPE, Inc (GSB) reported Q3 results ended September 2007. Q3 Revenues were $3.90M; +50.00% vs yr-ago; MISSING revenue consensus by -12.95%. Q3 EPS was 4c; +33.33% vs yr-ago; MISSING earnings consensus by -20.00%.
Form 10-Q:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5282472
Down 13% afterhours, but the CC tomorrow will be important imho
to summarize it:
GSB shows a 50% increase in revs and a 31% INCREASE in net income is NOT that bad.....
and last but not least this news is awesome:
GlobalSCAPE(R) Introduces High Security-PCI SolutionWednesday November 14, 8:30 am ET
New Tool Facilitates Data Security Compliance and Maintenance with the Payment Card Industry - Data Security Standard (PCI-DSS)
SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB - News), a leading provider of products that allow companies to move, store and share files securely over the Internet, today announced the general availability of GlobalSCAPE High Security-PCI (HS-PCI) solution to help ensure compliance with the PCI Data Security Standard. GlobalSCAPE's HS-PCI solution working in conjunction with the Enhanced File Transfer Server provides a high-security, hardened tool that facilitates PCI-DSS compliance and also achieves or exceeds corporate and industry security best practices for data transfer and storage.
The appeal of GlobalSCAPE's solution is broad because the PCI DSS is fast becoming a standard for the safeguarding of all sensitive company data, not just credit card data. It applies equally to patient records in a healthcare company, account balances at financial institutions, or social security numbers in a federal or local government program. Developed in response to soaring levels of credit card crime and fraud at the transaction level and through sensitive data leaks, the PCI DSS is a multifaceted security standard that includes requirements for security management, policies and procedures and IT infrastructure. To date, it has been endorsed by Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Diner's Club, Discover and JCB USA. Any company that transmits, processes or stores Primary Account Number (PAN) must comply with the PCI DSS or face fines up to $500,000 per incident and the potential removal of processing privileges. In response to the stringent requirements, GlobalSCAPE developed its HS-PCI solution to help users simply and efficiently achieve and maintain PCI DSS compliance at a low total cost of ownership.
"As a security model, the PCI DSS requirements can help companies control compliance costs and build a more efficient and reliable IT infrastructure that delivers better service while incurring less risk," said John G. Kelly, Director of Marketing at GlobalSCAPE. "At GlobalSCAPE, we are committed to providing our customers with best-in-class solutions that afford the simplicity and flexibility necessary to adapt to any future compliance mandates quickly and easily. By choosing GlobalSCAPE's High Security-PCI solution, users can meet many of the requirements put in place by the PCI Data Security Standard."
Key benefits of GlobalSCAPE's HS-PCI solution include:1)
Protecting Data in Transit—enforces the use of secure protocols, strong ciphers and encryption keys, and maintaining password policies that strictly follow PCI DSS guidelines.
2)
Protecting Data at Rest—helps organizations comply with data storage requirements by using repository encryption, securely sanitizing deleted data so that it cannot be reconstituted, and not storing data in the DMZ (when used in conjunction with GlobalSCAPE's DMZ Gateway server).
3)
Controlling Access to Data—enables administrators to restrict and require unique IDs for access. GlobalSCAPE's Authentication Manager can isolate a specific group of users from other groups in the administrator's domain and capture all server activity.
4)
Ensuring Ongoing PCI DSS Compliance—makes it easy for an administrator to create a new site that complies with the PCI standard and create regular or ad hoc reports that provide a status review of the monitored systems.
AvailabilityGlobalSCAPE High Security-PCI Solution is available immediately for $5,490. For more information or to request a demonstration of the product please visit www.globalscape.com or call 800-290-5054.
=
GlobalSCAPE branching out into the credit-card payment marketfrom San Antonio Business Journal
GlobalSCAPE Inc. is pooling its expertise in data transfer and storage technologies on a new tool that will allow merchants to securely transmit payment data over the Internet.
Even though the financial data-security market is not new, merchants now are facing even more stringent requirements for accepting and processing credit-card payments.
Companies that fail to meet Payment Card Industry - Data Security Standard (PCI-DSS) requirements could face fines up to $500,000 per incident and could lose their processing privileges for not keeping customer's account data secure.
To capture a slice of this security market, the San Antonio-based company has developed a new system called GlobalSCAPE High Security-PCI
that will be marketed to merchants. GlobalSCAPE (AMEX: GSB)
developed the tool in response to soaring levels of credit-card fraud at the transaction level and identity theft.
John G. Kelly, director of marketing at GlobalSCAPE, says the company's new product applies to credit card data, but can also be adapted for patient records at a health care company, account balances at financial institutions or Social Security numbers.
A huge revenue driver imho
cheers
Oliver
Oh boy, again, the trend wasn't my friend and it would have been better to take a roughly 100% profit than to keep holding for the long term. This has happened to me several times this year.
Remember SILC, for example? When earnings were out I knew the stock would go down, but decided to focus on the long term. Ended up taking just a 38% profit (instead of a 100%) if I recall correctly.
In GSB's case there was plenty of evidence that the company would miss analysts' forecasts, as I pointed out. Fortunately some of you sold half or even sold your position entirely over the last few days. You'll be able to buy it back significantly lower.
All this being said, there are some weird issues here:
- It's strange, and I'm sorry for having mislead Garoh on this, that the 10-Q was filed yesterday (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000110465907083198/a07-25579_110q.htm), since the conference call will happen just today after the close. Investors will be reacting to results today without having listened to the conference call. What's the trick here?
- It's strange that the CEO has talked so often about his $20 M revenue guidance for the full year of 2007 and then reports just $3.9 M in Q3. Revenues for the 9 months so far in 2007 were $13.94 M. So, how come he's been promising $20 M? Is GSB going to make $6.1 M in Q4? Management beat guidance in Q1 and Q2 2007, it will be weird if the CEO mislead investors with his "$20 M talk". Especially since he didn't sell none of his 242,666 shares over the last few days and the company didn't dilute shareholder's value. What would be the point?
The answers will only be given in the conference call today after the close. It is possible that the CEO knows there's going to be, or already has been, a huge order in Q4, which will bring revenue for that quarter towards $6 M plus and the full year number on target with the $20 M guidance.
I hope the CEO wasn't infantile enough to play with investors expectations. A miss of this guidance will make investors lose trust and make GSB carry a lower than average earnings multiple.
Anyway, I already suspected this would happen and, because I love the company's products and believe there's going to be huge growth in demand for them, I'll keep holding GSB for the long term whatever happens.
If I were to sell, I should have sold yesterday. Now there's no point in selling to buy back just a bit lower.
It's ok David :)
In fact , I was planning to sell half of my position today before the earnings , But it already came out just after the maket closed yesterday ???
But It's kind of weird thing !! how come they announce earnings after market close and they hold the Call after market close next day ??!! ???
Is it legal ??
QuoteIn fact , I was planning to sell half of my position today before the earnings , But it already came out just after the maket closed yesterday ???
I was hoping that you had sold yesterday. Again, I apologize. They made an announcement saying the conference call would be held on November 15th, after the close (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071109/20071109005395.html?.v=1), so I naturally concluded that earnings would also be released on that date.
QuoteBut It's kind of weird thing !! how come they announce earnings after market close and they hold the Call after market close next day ??!! ???
Is it legal ??
Yeah, I guess it's legal, they don't have to pre-announce the earnings release date or even make a conference call.
I'll be curious to know if there will be a trick here, for example, most people selling because of the earnings miss, an hedge fund buying and then, after the close and at the conference call, the CEO announces a big order or acquisition or something like that. But probably this is just my hope talking.
Yes david It looks like a trick !!
I hope so .
Hi David,
I don't think that a CEO can afford to give not good numbers on earnings, so to shock down the prices...in the meantime an hedge fund buys and the day after with the conference call suddently appears a huge order...this would mean market manipulation and insider trading.
Quote from: terainvestment on November 15, 2007, 08:05:47 AM
Hi David,
I don't think that a CEO can afford to give not good numbers on earnings, so to shock down the prices...in the meantime an hedge fund buys and the day after with the conference call suddently appears a huge order...this would mean market manipulation and insider trading.
I'm not saying that the company reported lower than reality numbers. The facts are:
- The 10-Q was filed 24 hours before the conference call;
- The CEO repeatedly gave a $20 M revenue guidance for the full year of 2007, revenue in Q3 was just $3.9 M and for the nine months so far it was $13.9 M. So, what will he say at the conference call to justify the $20 M guidance?
The difference in timing, guidance and reality is weird. But probably what's happening is that the CEO lied, he's a liar. And that's bad ... well, time will tell.
I shared eggman's worries yesterday and still did not press the button. I am selling today no matter what. The company begins to look dodgy. Who knows what the CEO mutters today, it is not fair to present results yesterday in a flash with little visibility and then talk about it the next day. What a disappointment!
We should consider holding only legit businesses, at least while they appear to be such and sell no matter what once we smell fish.
I sold off my whole positiom yesterday, thinking I would get back after earnings are announced, but after the way they released earnings and the earnings themselves based on what the CEO said -$20M in revenues as David previously mentioned, I am not so sure, about getting back in.
Somehow my order got filled at $6.50. I will wait for the CC and David's analysis on it. If the share price is justified and the company foresees further revenue growth on a consistent basis, I will gladly buy back, even at a higher price. Better be safe than sorry.
Good move, eggman!
I googled Randy Poole (CEO) and came up with this interesting tidbit. It's a letter written by him to the SEC complaining about market manipulation:
From: Randy Poole
Sent: July 11, 2005
To:
[email protected]Subject: File No. 4-500
Dear Mr. Katz,
I am writing regarding SEC File No. 4-500.
Small issuers traded on the Pink sheets and the OTCBB deserve rulemaking regarding member records of "short" positions and reportng and public dissemination of aggregate positions by security.
Why would you not amend NASD Rule 3360 and require NASD broker dealers to maintain a record of total "short" positions in all customer and proprietary firm accounts in all publicly traded equity securities as well as report this information to the NASD for public dissemination of the short positions by security?
We urgently need the SEC's action to prevent fraudulent acts, expose market manipulation, and promote fair principles of trade and protect investors.
Companies like Globalscape form the next generation of economic drivers. We are easily prone to market manipulation which at times threatens our very existence, and certainly has helped to destroy many promising young companies.
Thank you for your consideration,
Sincerely,
Hi Berloga,
I think I might use my GSB money to add to my CIMT position instead of rebuying GSB.
GSB finally issued a press release regarding their earnings. and lowered their revenue forecast for 2007 from 20M to 17-18M, blaming the shortfall on delayed orders.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071115/20071115006056.html?.v=1
Hi eggman,
I already added to CIMT a while back, so don't want to overweigh the position. Since the price is not going up, but volume is up, I assume that some folks are losing patience with this "nanocap" and are using the chance to get out. I am willing to ride this stock another 6 months to see what happens.
My portfolio has been not the Zambezi rapids this past week! Down 4% today. 8)
At least it sounds like a reasonable explanation to me ... let's give the CEO benefit of doubt for now I will say.
Quote from: eggman11 on November 15, 2007, 02:27:24 PM
GSB finally issued a press release regarding their earnings. and lowered their revenue forecast for 2007 from 20M to 17-18M, blaming the shortfall on delayed orders.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071115/20071115006056.html?.v=1
Quote from: realcoolhead on November 15, 2007, 03:45:15 PM
At least it sounds like a reasonable explanation to me ... let's give the CEO benefit of doubt for now I will say.
Quote from: eggman11 on November 15, 2007, 02:27:24 PM
GSB finally issued a press release regarding their earnings. and lowered their revenue forecast for 2007 from 20M to 17-18M, blaming the shortfall on delayed orders.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071115/20071115006056.html?.v=1
Agreed, order shortfall can and does happen, this is CEO who is gunning for the moon and might have gotten a bit overzealous in his guidance, but he still has vision and implementation under control it would seem. We could see a huge quarter next quarter as these delayed orders get added, as well as any surprises. Wish I had sold and bought back today, but still I feel good about GSB long term. Now if only CIMT would behave as expected instead of being flat, at least I would offset the GSB loss lol.... ???
Quote from: realcoolhead on November 15, 2007, 03:45:15 PM
At least it sounds like a reasonable explanation to me ... let's give the CEO benefit of doubt for now I will say.
Quote from: eggman11 on November 15, 2007, 02:27:24 PM
GSB finally issued a press release regarding their earnings. and lowered their revenue forecast for 2007 from 20M to 17-18M, blaming the shortfall on delayed orders.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071115/20071115006056.html?.v=1
I agree, reasonable explanation. We'll see if the $750,000 kick in the 4th quarter. It was a serious setback, but the long term outlook remains very positive.
"We feel very good about our progress and our performance so far this year. While the Third Quarter would qualify as outstanding performance by virtually all yardsticks, it could have been better," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "The DOD has not completed its order with us per its original schedule, delaying $750,000 of revenue, and some other larger deals have also been delayed. While the third quarter revenue was up 50% and the fourth quarter outlook is also good, we expect to see variations in our growth from quarter to quarter like most software companies do. For the full year 2007, I expect we will have revenue of $17.5MM to $18MM, short of our $20MM prior guidance.
"We like our unique position in this marketplace and we are excited about our plans for 2008. GlobalSCAPE is spending an increasing amount of our engineering resources on improving the speed, security, and network optimization of file transfer over our customers' networks. Our unique WAFS product ensures bandwidth-efficient WAN utilization because only incremental changes to files are actually transferred over the network," added Poole. "We are also exploring several new product enhancements and partnerships involving all of our product offerings, where we feel the potential is large.
RB Quotation:
GSB Conference Call Notes, Comments
About the $17.5-18.0 million revenue guidance just given, down from the expected $20 million for 2007. It's a matter of timing other firms' purchases, something Globalscape can't control, and these firms have some concerns about the economy, and want to delay software purchases at this time. Delay is the key word. These are LARGE deals, there are THREE of them, they are NON-government firms, and Randy Poole will announce who they are and the details as soon as the deals happen. Asked whether these likely to occur at all or what, Randy Poole stated, "I am absolutly convinced we will complete the deals...."; and asked whether the statement in the news release meant that the three deals were all larger than the DoD order in Q2, he again said he didn't want to comment on that, but that yes, these are all 'material' and significant orders. Material information. The statement I refer to is: "The DOD has not completed its order with us per its original schedule, delaying $750,000 of revenue, and some other larger deals have also been delayed." Because of these delays, even though they could very well make up the difference during the 4th quarter, he said he wanted to be safe about the forecast and "certainly that's the low side (the $17.5 to 18.0 million)" that he's certain they'll make, and "it IS possible we WILL make up the difference in Q4." [I believe knowing Randy as long as we have, the veterans can back it up that Randy is basically conservative, so he'd rather say $17.5-18.0 million as a low-side estimate and then bring in $20 million if those deals come in between now and December 31st (Q4). While he was holding it pretty tight to the vest, we did manage to get this fact from him, that's these are in Healthcare and in Manufacturing.
So ... some of what else I got from all this part was ...
There's the Globalscape-Synteras partnership, which I'll get to some great stuff in a minute, and then there is besides that, while we were all here waiting for them to start bringing that to fruition through FIPS certification, assuming that is going to be a strong driver for them with Synteras contracting with the government, Globalscape actually telling us today on the call that they have THREE OTHER partnerships in discussion. Randy Poole used the plural in describing Availl as leading the charge with those, that these companies were excited about getting involved with the CDP and WAFS softwares as partners, and they are "significant partnerships", too. Also, they need to fit the WAFS/CDP softwares to fit each partner, and that's one of the things they're working out with them. Yes, I said THREE! How significant? Mr. Poole said, "It gives me goosebumps," at one point. He wasn't just trying to be cute. Wait till you get the news, I think you'll agree you got goosebumps too.
These guys have got THREE partners they are talking to. Besides Synteras! More on partners: Synteras is in THREE negotiations in which Globalscape is part of the presentation. Yes, right NOW. I thought we were waiting on that FIPS certification, maybe we are, but they aren't waiting THAT hard if they are making presentations of Globalscape's product lines ALL OF THEM I think I heard Randy say. Lol. One caller asked, like "Which software products, Randy?" Moment of SILENCE ... then ... "ALL of them" and I think he cleared his throat or something for effect. It was cool. Check it out on the audio. ALL of them!
He said as far as how big these deals were, EVERYTHING Synteras does is big, so he's not going into that. Now I DO understand FIPS is going to aid the Synteras deal, so logic dictates I should say right here, Everything we heard on Synteras-Globalscape partnership and the THREE deals currently going on ... SOUNDS GOOD!! If FIPS is needed for them, then Synteras must be aware the FIPS is coming in soon. If FIPS isn't required for these deals, then we can expect EVEN MORE deals to be lined up once they are. Either way .... SOUNDS GOOD!! Oh, my notes show this too: these three deals with Synteras are not the long, drawn-out type that take months and months to play out, but are up-front deals and happen all at once. "Not months to do, but could be VERY SOON."
More on partnerships:
Randy discussed his current #1 priority on the call. We all got a big surprise. After he stated how they began as a small FTP outfit to individuals on the Net, and grew into a bigger firm handling Enterprise software to Fortune 100 & 500 companies, he said THEY ARE NOW READY to make the next leap to finding a Global Partner. He said that since the impact of a Global Partner on the future of Globalscape would be so great, he's made it his NUMBER ONE PRIORITY. Then he said they are looking for the right fit, and however long that takes, picking the right partners is their plan. Yes, I said PARTNERS PLURAL. He restated it, Partners! One or two global partners. Whoa Nelly! Hang on Pat Brady! (Roy Roger's sidekick.)
Lol, we tried to get him to decide for us which was going to be bigger, FIPS or PCI DSS softwares, and he wouldn't step into that one. Good for you, Randy. That's like, Which ocean has more fish? The Atlantic or the Pacific? lol. We talked about all the irons they have in the fire, and he said the important thing was to get into those areas, like the latest HS PCI software, for instance, and then each branch would grow larger from there. To that point, they added a lot of support for the software and also some key execs in top positions.
Oh, and there's this new standard that supports AS-2 and you have to have it to be able to work with GE, Valero, and some other biggies. They are working on being compatible with that too. So great! In my opinion, they are seeing the results of being compliant with FIPS, HIPPA, PCI DSS, Sarbanes Oxley and the rest, and so are spot on target looking at opening up the products to sales among the AS-2 standards crowd. See this link ==> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AS2
I have listen to the CC also, I can fully support these comments!
Long And Strong imho
cheers from SGP
Oliver
I've just listened to GSB's conference call and was prepared to bring some highlights, but it seems la-onda already brought us most of the material stuff.
In summary, the shortfall relative to the $20 M guidance was due to the DoD taking more time than expected in fully installing the $2.5 M of software they bought. Only 1/3 of it has been installed and the $750,000 in maintenance fees which were scheduled to happen in Q3 were delayed and may or may not happen in Q4 2007. But they will surely happen in Q1 2008. Another reason for the shortfall, according to the CEO, was that three larger orders were delayed because the people involved suddenly got worried about where the economy is going. But Randy (the CEO) said he's absolutely confident that they'll close the deals sooner or later.
He didn't rule out meeting the $20 M guidance in 2007 and said the new $17.5 M - $18 M is the absolute minimum. It all depends on these larger orders being closed until December 31st or not.
The Availl part of the business, that is, WAFS and CDP, accounted for about $0.7 M in revenue for the quarter, but they're the fastest growing part of the business and the one getting more excitement and attention. The CEO said he's been talking with potential much larger partners who are interested in these products and this will be his # 1 priority going forward.
As for the Synteras partnership, he said there are three major deals in the pipeline which will involve GSB. If they're indeed closed they'll have a material impact on GSB's financial condition (to the better, of course).
All in all, we know Randy Poole is a nice and exuberant person which sometimes gets a bit ahead of himself with excitement, but over time he always delivered on his promises, even though not in the exact timings.
GSB continues to be one of the best long term investment ideas I have and the potential is huge. I don't mind the big drawdowns for as long as I remain confident in the long term outcome of this investment, which I believe will bring several bags of profit to the Main Portfolio in three years time.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
1)
San Antonio Business Journal:
GlobalSCAPE posts double-digit increase in earnings for the third quarter
GlobalSCAPE Inc. continued to benefit from strong sales of file-sharing and storage products, the company said Thursday. GlobalSCAPE's net income and revenues were up 31 percent and 50 percent, respectively, for the third quarter, compared to the same period last year.
San Antonio-based GlobalSCAPE (AMEX: GSB) reported net income of $702,875 on revenues of $3.9 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2007.
This compares to net income of $536,545 on revenues of $2.6 million for the same period a year ago. "We feel very good about our program and our performance so far this year. While the third quarter would qualify as outstanding performance by virtually all yardsticks, it could have been better," President and CEO Randy Poole says. "The (Department of Defense) has not completed its order with us per its original schedule, delaying $750,000 of revenue, and some other larger deals have also been delayed." For the full year, GlobalSCAPE expects to report revenue of $17.5 million to $18 million, which is short of management's prior guidance.
GlobalSCAPE develops security products that allow users to transmit sensitive files -- such as financial data, medical records, customer files and intellectual property -- over the Internet.
2) AMC research update
9.13$ price target, please download
It's amazing how three days can make a significant difference. Three days ago I was making almost 100% in GSB and today, after yesterday's awful sell-off, I have just a 33% profit.
It's really tough to be a long term investor, I didn't realize the drawdowns would be this big. But nobody said it would be easy.
I could have taken profits around $7 - $7.50, as I advised some of you to do so, but I didn't because I like the stock for the long term and believe it will be a multi-bagger.
I realize that most of the times it takes several years for a multi-bagger to evolve into one. It isn't a quick process. But I remain a believer that investing for the long term is the most sound, probably the unique strategy to build and grow one's wealth over a 20 or 30 years live of investments.
As I look at GSB's products (http://www.globalscape.com/), I'll believe they'll be in very high demand for many years to come.
Yesterday's sell off was, in my opinion, due to two short term factors:
1) The general market mood is bearish (but I believe that's about to change (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10600.msg108985#new))
2) GSB missed forecasts in the 3rd quarter, when it earned just 4 cents a share. Investors multiply this by 4 quarters and reach a $0.16 EPS number for a full year, so they conclude GSB is trading at 31.8 times earnings, which seems expensive. But we've seen the 3rd quarter EPS number was affected by special factors ... and the company will probably get back on track in Q4 2007 or Q1 2008.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term, despite the horrible setback.
at the end of the day, with GSB we are @ break even.
Next time, good idea not only to sell before earnings, but going short :-)
Quote from: terainvestment on November 27, 2007, 03:20:22 PM
at the end of the day, with GSB we are @ break even.
Next time, good idea not only to sell before earnings, but going short :-)
;D I'll probably never short another stock in my entire life. Better to put my energy in searching for the potential multi-baggers out there.
Anyway, what happened to SILC, NVTL and GSB, to name a few, has made me think that perhaps, instead of having the fear of losing I have the fear of missing out. I'm afraid of missing the long term move of a multi-bagger if I sell out, even though there's plenty of fundamental evidence stocks will fall over the short and medium term.
Right here and now I've decided to combat my fear of missing out. The next time I have a stock which I believe is a great long term investment but I clearly see it will go down due to new fundamental information, I'll sell first and consider buying back later, hopefully at a lower price.
Not selling GSB, not even half of the position (even though I've advised you to do so) was the main cause to bring the Main Portfolio down this much. Hopefully I've learned my lesson and will be more flexible in the future.
Anyway, I believe GSB is now very attractive again and it would be foolish to sell now. Missed the short term timing for taking profits, but still have no doubts this little company will grow to be a multi-bagger.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
QuoteRight here and now I've decided to combat my fear of missing out. The next time I have a stock which I believe is a great long term investment but I clearly see it will go down due to new fundamental information, I'll sell first and consider buying back later, hopefully at a lower price.
A very good decision, David, applaud! This means you're not giving up on a long term prospects of a company, but rather taking a precaution and merely reacting to the short term development. I always have a difficulty to press the trigger (eggman helped this time), but with you managing the trade it'll be a lot easier now.
I think about it this way: "if I sell today for the gain and watch what comes out next, all I lose is the roundtrip broker fee and the potential several points of advance, that is if I was wrong and want to get back in immediately."
I notice that GSB remained all day long flat @ 4$.
Any thoughts on this "impasse" of GSB?
QuoteA very good decision, David, applaud! This means you're not giving up on a long term prospects of a company, but rather taking a precaution and merely reacting to the short term development. I always have a difficulty to press the trigger (eggman helped this time), but with you managing the trade it'll be a lot easier now.
Yes, I guess I can't keep wasting all my daily work because of my fear of missing out. If I see the stock will go down due to relevant fundamental information (not technical), I'll sell it and will keep studying it looking to perhaps buy it back hopefully at a lower level.
Quote from: terainvestment on November 28, 2007, 04:00:02 PM
I notice that GSB remained all day long flat @ 4$.
Any thoughts on this "impasse" of GSB?
GSB loves the $4 level. It traded around it for a somewhat prolonged period.
Yesterday there were reports saying the VP of Sales sold all his holdings (41,247 shares) at $4.4 (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000117911007022375/xslF345X02/edgar.xml). This worries me just a bit ... as Peter Lynch says, insider selling is one of the worst reasons to sell a stock. He missed several multi-baggers in the first years of his money management career because of selling due to insider selling. Maybe the man just wanted to buy an apartment for his daughter, who knows?
GSB isn't cheap if we use a simple multiple comparison, but if we consider the products, prospects and potential ... I see it as very attractive. GSB is a fast grower which may very well deliver several bags of profit over the long term. The risk is ... well, the stock can stay around $4 for a long time before anything meaningful from a fundamental standpoint unfolds.
I'll keep GSB for the long term.
Nice bounce today. Hopefully that upward trend continues.
Looks like a nice bounce. I am back in at $4.35. Thanks, eggman for helping me press the trigger earlier at $6.50!
Quote from: berloga on December 01, 2007, 01:00:36 PM
Looks like a nice bounce. I am back in at $4.35. Thanks, eggman for helping me press the trigger earlier at $6.50!
Congrats for this nice trade berloga :)
I'm glad about GSB's comeback after touching the 200 days SMA, like it happened after August's dip.
But I would be even more glad if this were due to any pending fundamental information. We'll know about that over the next few days ... as we've been writing in this thread GSB has a lot of potential and an overnight news can make it jump 50-100%. These news can be business coming from the partnership with Synteras (a $1 B private company), a new big order coming from the Government or even a new law enforcing more data and information security.
Even in the "soft" 3rd quarter GSB's revenues grew 50% and the stock trades with a 2007 p/e of 20. This is attractive.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
GSB held up well yesterday, despite the 40% run up in a couple of days.
I guess GSB moved back up so sharply because, even being a micro cap, several institutions own and follow the stock. And we're getting near the close of the year. Institutional investors see that with not much money they can push the stock dramatically up and improve their year end results.
This way I don't expect GSB to drop back down between now and the close of the year. It is more likely that it will move back up to $7 plus.
Longer term I believe fundamentals will keep improving and will justify not just $7 per share, but a lot more.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
QuoteI guess GSB moved back up so sharply because, even being a micro cap, several institutions own and follow the stock. And we're getting near the close of the year. Institutional investors see that with not much money they can push the stock dramatically up and improve their year end results.
GSB's behavior yesterday is illustrative of what I wrote, with the stock being pushed higher right in the final minute of the session. I'm positive fund managers will keep pushing this illiquid stock until the close of the year.
I noticed the same thing yesterday, a fast increase in price and a great closing 2 minutes before the bell.
David: which is the rationale behind these fast price movements before the closing bell?
Quote from: terainvestment on December 06, 2007, 08:07:35 AM
I noticed the same thing yesterday, a fast increase in price and a great closing 2 minutes before the bell.
David: which is the rationale behind these fast price movements before the closing bell?
Imagine you own 1.7 million or so shares like Michael Roth does. You can increase the value of your 1.7 million shares by buying a few thousand just before the close. This is important, especially if you want to present pleasant year end results to your clients/investors.
GSB fell 6.2% yesterday. Fortunately that wasn't enough to take the Main Portfolio down. I'm feeling that most of you guys don't own this stock anymore. The drawdowns have been sharp and painful, but I wish all my stocks were up 46.5% from my buying price like GSB is.
Because of a 1 cent miss in EPS in Q3 relative to analysts expectations, they cut 2008 EPS estimates by 23.5%:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42452;image)
I don't think this is reasonable and believe GSB will do a lot better than analysts expect.
Take a look at the PEG ratio for GSB and its industry peers and see how cheap the stock actually is:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42453;image)
Over the short term I believe fund managers holding GSB in their portfolios won't let it slide significantly between now and the end of the year.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Long and strong...buys at 4.27, 4.2 and 3.2. I'm up +50% on paper.
Kent
Quote from: JKN on December 11, 2007, 07:51:12 AM
Long and strong...buys at 4.27, 4.2 and 3.2. I'm up +50% on paper.
Kent
Sounds cool Kent :)
GSB did better than most stocks yesterday, corroborating the notion that fund managers are not willing to let this one slip before the end of the year.
GSB isn't cheap, I would say it is fairly valued considering current fundamentals, but we can get a big positive surprise anytime. Anything coming from the DoD or any other government arm, anything from the Synteras partnership or just strong growth in CDP or WAFS products will make this small cap fly a lot.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Ouch, -9.7% yesterday :-\
I was wrong when writing the following:
QuoteGSB did better than most stocks yesterday, corroborating the notion that fund managers are not willing to let this one slip before the end of the year.
Anyway, volume has been weak, so it is entirely possible that today, since there's a different mood, GSB claws back up the entire 10% or so lost yesterday.
My fundamental reasoning for owning this company has more to do with a vision of the future than the company's intrinsic fundamentals. I believe that the number of people working from their homes will increase exponentially over the next 10 years. In my view, the corporation of the future won't have a big headquarters where people meet to work. The corporation of the future will have its employees spread across the World (even small companies), most of them working from their homes and communicating through their computers.
To accomplish this, companies will need Wide Area File Sharing (WAFS), Continuous Data Protection (CDP) and secure servers. GSB is one of the companies providing this. Of course, there are others in the field, like Riverbed (RVBD) for example. But GSB is more profitable than RVBD and GSB is a $84 M market cap, while RVBD is a $1.8 B company. If there are 10 or 20 bags of profit to make from this trend, they will be in GSB, not in RVBD, in my view.
Anyway, I know I can't have 15 "all or nothing" stocks. I don't think "nothing" is a possibility in GSB's case, the company has been around for a long time and it has been growing revenues and profits steadily.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
There weren't any news out to support that two days big rally and GSB is almost back down to the previous level.
I guess it weren't institutional investors pushing the stock up on that big rally ... maybe it was short covering ... or else the CEO got mad about the market's response to results and reignited the company's buyback plan. I don't know.
I believe we will never see GSB below $3.5 again. But probably we won't see $8 either without any new fundamental information, which can be released anytime.
I'm interested in this company's business area and appreciate the fundamental trends. I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Nice late day push in GSB. It's good to see that bears weren't able to take it as much down as in their prior ride, when GSB fell below $4.
One of the many things I like about GSB's business is that companies are obligated, by law, to buy GSB's or its competitors products:
«Who Must Comply and Why?
If your company transmits, processes, or stores Primary Account Numbers (PAN) you must comply with the PCI-DSS or face fines, which can be up to US$500,000 per incident, increased fees, restrictions, and even removal of processing privileges. Examples of the wide range of businesses who must comply include medical facilities that accept credit card payments, retail stores that move POS transaction data, or law firms that accept credit cards.»
If you're interested, read here about Globalscape's solution for PCI-DSS compliance (http://www.globalscape.com/eft/pci.aspx).
VDSI is a $1 B company and GSB is just an $83 M market cap, but the way I see both businesses, GSB has a more diversified and compelling product and services offering and its long term value will be, in my view, higher than VDSI's value.
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
Investors Business Daily Names GlobalSCAPE Stock #1 on its list of Top 10 Stocks Under $10
December 28, 2007
SAN ANTONIO, Texas – GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB), a leading provider of products that allow companies to move, store and share files securely over the Internet, today announced the Company's stock was featured as Investor's Business Daily's No. 1 stock on its list of the top-rated stocks under $10. The ranking is based on the stock's performance against key investment parameters such as the P/E ratio and EPS (price earnings ratio and earnings per share).
IBD's online search tool compiles the list for its subscribers from 2,000 comparable stocks listed in its database. Stocks that appear on the list are often highlighted in Investors Business Daily's weekly e-newsletter. GlobalSCAPE appeared at #1 in the ranking on December 27th.
Top Rated Stocks Under $10 allows subscribers to research stocks using Investor's Business Daily's proprietary ratings. Subscribers can then decide which stocks are to their liking and move forward, with confidence, in the investment process.
"Since joining the American Stock Exchange earlier this year, we have been excited by the growth of our Company and the continued momentum of our stock," stated GlobalSCAPE CEO Randy Poole. "To be featured on Investor's Business Daily's list of top stocks is very fulfilling and underscores the business value GlobalSCAPE brings to the industry. We are pleased that a publication like IBD recognizes our brand in this very competitive market."
GlobalSCAPE software can help secure data both in transport and at rest. GlobalSCAPE supports a full range of secure transfer protocols -- SFTP (SSH), FTPS (SSL) and HTTPS (SSL) and secures data at rest using PGP encryption. GlobalSCAPE's EFT Server, Wide Area File Services (WAFS), Continuous Data Protection (CDP) and FTP Secure Server are part of an enterprise product range that allows customers to expand functionality as their needs increase.
http://globalscape.com/company/news.aspx#122807
Quote"Since joining the American Stock Exchange earlier this year, we have been excited by the growth of our Company and the continued momentum of our stock," stated GlobalSCAPE CEO Randy Poole. "To be featured on Investor's Business Daily's list of top stocks is very fulfilling and underscores the business value GlobalSCAPE brings to the industry. We are pleased that a publication like IBD recognizes our brand in this very competitive market."
I think this is meaningless.
Now these ...
«GlobalSCAPE software can help secure data both in transport and at rest. GlobalSCAPE supports a full range of secure transfer protocols -- SFTP (SSH), FTPS (SSL) and HTTPS (SSL) and secures data at rest using PGP encryption. GlobalSCAPE's EFT Server, Wide Area File Services (WAFS), Continuous Data Protection (CDP) and FTP Secure Server are part of an enterprise product range that allows customers to expand functionality as their needs increase.»
... are great products. GSB is the most environmentally friendly stock of the Main Portfolio ;D... instead of providing an hybrid or fuel less car, GSB, through its WAFS services, helps corporations put people to work at their home offices, instead of losing two hours a day driving back and forth.
My wife works at an investment fund and they pay $350 a month for a guy that just goes there 5 minutes a day to change some tapes that record everything the computers did that day. Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper to buy GSB's Continuous Data Protection software (http://www.globalscape.com/store/cdp.aspx) for $2,388? In 7 months they would get their money back and from then on they would cut costs $350 a month.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Some people bought GSB due to the following information last week ...
«Investors Business Daily Names GlobalSCAPE Stock #1 on its list of Top 10 Stocks Under $10
December 28, 2007
SAN ANTONIO, Texas – GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB), a leading provider of products that allow companies to move, store and share files securely over the Internet, today announced the Company's stock was featured as Investor's Business Daily's No. 1 stock on its list of the top-rated stocks under $10. The ranking is based on the stock's performance against key investment parameters such as the P/E ratio and EPS (price earnings ratio and earnings per share).
IBD's online search tool compiles the list for its subscribers from 2,000 comparable stocks listed in its database. Stocks that appear on the list are often highlighted in Investors Business Daily's weekly e-newsletter. GlobalSCAPE appeared at #1 in the ranking on December 27th.»
... which obviously wasn't a valid reason to buy the stock, since these rankings are made using an automatic programming code which didn't take into account the significant one time gain GSB enjoyed in Q2 2007.
So, unfortunately GSB is falling 18.9% this week. I guess this is enough to punish those buyers with weak motivations, also because GSB hit the $4.4 support area today.
I continue to love GSB's products and business model and believe the company will enjoy very strong growth for years to come. I'll hold GSB.
David, I really doubt that IBD had all that much to do with the runup and subsequent fallback. The IBD "top stocks under $10" is not part of the mainstream IBD and requires a separate subscription. I do not have one for it and can't access. I doubt that many IBDer's have this sub-subscription, at least I have no intention of buying it. I can access the IBD "stock checkup" for GSB though and they still rate it poorly with only a 65 out of possible 100 overall, but with a decent fundamental rating of 89.
You're right, the system doesn't take into account one time gains or charges, but think I they usually comment on these. They commented several times on ROCM's one-time gain while it was on the "100" list. People seemed to ignore that fact anyway and the stock eventually dived and was removed. Another reason why they always say the IBD 100 is not an automatic "buy" list.
IBD says that stocks under $15 should be mostly avoided, because they don't consider them to be "institutional quality". That's why all stocks on the IBD 100 have to be above $15,
was this the bottom?
nice chart action today
QuoteDavid, I really doubt that IBD had all that much to do with the runup and subsequent fallback. The IBD "top stocks under $10" is not part of the mainstream IBD and requires a separate subscription. I do not have one for it and can't access. I doubt that many IBDer's have this sub-subscription, at least I have no intention of buying it. I can access the IBD "stock checkup" for GSB though and they still rate it poorly with only a 65 out of possible 100 overall, but with a decent fundamental rating of 89.
Yeah, but the "#1 IBD rank news" was widely publicized, even GSB's CEO commented on the fact.
QuoteYou're right, the system doesn't take into account one time gains or charges, but think I they usually comment on these. They commented several times on ROCM's one-time gain while it was on the "100" list. People seemed to ignore that fact anyway and the stock eventually dived and was removed. Another reason why they always say the IBD 100 is not an automatic "buy" list.
IBD says that stocks under $15 should be mostly avoided, because they don't consider them to be "institutional quality". That's why all stocks on the IBD 100 have to be above $15
Thanks for the information BigSully1 :)
Quote from: la-onda on January 10, 2008, 09:40:19 PM
was this the bottom?
nice chart action today
Indeed la-onda, we had a triple support area in play around $4.4. It was the horizontal support, the descending trendline, which was a prior resistance, now support and the 200 days SMA which already worked as a fine support in the recent past.
Let's see if now we can approach the upper end of the range at $6.2.
GSB is that stock where we can have awesome good news overnight ... but we didn't get one today. I'll patiently keep holding GSB for the long term.
GlobalSCAPE Projects 2007 Revenues to Exceed Guidance by almost $1M
Tuesday January 15, 8:00 am ET
SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GlobalSCAPE (AMEX:GSB - News), a leading provider of products that allow companies to move, store and share files securely over the Internet, today announced projected record revenues for the quarter ending December 31, 2007 and the year 2007. Revenue for the 4th quarter, 2007 should exceed $4.4M, and for 2007 revenues should surpass $18.3M. The Company emphasized that these are preliminary, unaudited numbers that may be subject to audit adjustments upon completion in mid-March of this year.
"I am particularly encouraged by the strong finish we had in the fourth quarter, and am optimistic about our opportunities in 2008," commented Randy Poole, President and CEO. "I look forward to reporting our fully audited final results in mid-March and discussing our plans for 2008 at that time."
QuoteRevenue for the 4th quarter, 2007 should exceed $4.4M
These are encouraging news la-onda. Q4 2007 is the best quarter ever for GSB, if we don't take into account Q2 2007 when the company had a special one time gain.
$4.4 M revenue represents a 13% increase from the previous quarter (when revenue was $3.9 M) and 25% growth from Q4 2006 (this isn't as impressive).
Anyway, it seems that the 3rd quarter weakness didn't extend into the 4th quarter and momentum is picking up again.
I remain confident that GSB's products will be in very high demand for years to come, regardless of how the economy does.
I'll remain a long term investor in GSB shares.
Had to buy this at 3.80. Had been waiting. Good move? we'll see.
I bought some @ $4.05
I bought 200 shares for 3.40 8)
you lucky guys...
Quote from: soxguy on January 22, 2008, 10:15:20 AM
Had to buy this at 3.80. Had been waiting. Good move? we'll see.
Quote from: Se7en on January 22, 2008, 10:23:19 AM
I bought some @ $4.05
You bought around the horizontal support. It looks like a good move from a technical standpoint.
Quote from: babouk on January 22, 2008, 10:36:29 AM
I bought 200 shares for 3.40 8)
The low on my chart was $3.60 ... the chart wasn't even able to admit someone gave you shares at $3.40. He didn't sold them, he gave them to you :)
Quote from: terainvestment on January 22, 2008, 10:51:53 AM
you lucky guys...
;D
I'm starting to learn, from the recent past, that fundamentals don't matter much if one has a one year perspective. Any investment has to be bought with at least a three years time horizon, because stocks don't respond to fundamentals over the short term ... they respond to fear, the fear of losing and the fear of missing out.
Anyway, as years go by, some companies appreciate in value and others don't, according to fundamentals. But it takes years. One has to understand this if he wants to be a long term investor.
GSB has awesome products that will be in very high demand over the foreseeable future. The company is currently valued by the market at $78 M but I think it may be worth 10 times more over the long term. But it will take several years ...
Somebody bought 10,000 shares at the open yesterday and produced the black candle you see on the chart below. Clearly that person wasn't worried at all about the next 5-10% move.
I'm also not worried about the short term developments, as I'll hold GSB for the long term.
GSB went down 4.6% on Friday, like other micro caps inside the Main Portfolio. This phenomenon usually happens when the S&P 500 starts rising, first the large and medium caps start moving up and some small money leaves the micro caps to join the rise ... however, in a few weeks time, the micro caps (the good ones, of course), should more than compensate for this lack of performance, by rising rapidly.
As for GSB specifically, it looks evident that the company will beat analysts 4th quarter EPS projections:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43417;image)
Since management already gave the following guidance:
«Revenue for the 4th quarter, 2007 should exceed $4.4M, and for 2007 revenues should surpass $18.3M.»
Well, in the 3rd quarter, with $3.9 M revenue, they already made $0.04 EPS, so with $4.4 M revenue I would expect at least $0.05 EPS for the quarter. It doesn't look like much, but it's 25% more ;D
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 03, 2008, 11:19:49 PM
GSB went down 4.6% on Friday, like other micro caps inside the Main Portfolio. This phenomenon usually happens when the S&P 500 starts rising, first the large and medium caps start moving up and some small money leaves the micro caps to join the rise ... however, in a few weeks time, the micro caps (the good ones, of course), should more than compensate for this lack of performance, by rising rapidly.
Small caps have been outperforming recently, but not tech.
QuoteSmall caps have been outperforming recently, but not tech.
Yes, but you know, the Russel 2000 is composed by the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest companies traded in the USA, so they're small caps, but not precisely micro caps.
Companies like CIMT, GSB and PFSW are not included in the Russel 2000, they're not big enough for that ... so I guess they're still being left in the cold.
Anyway, it's a sign of health for this market that small caps are outperforming again, because they're more attractive from a fundamental standpoint and it improves the breath of the market, in technical terms.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 03, 2008, 11:39:24 PM
QuoteSmall caps have been outperforming recently, but not tech.
Anyway, it's a sign of health for this market that small caps are outperforming again, because they're more attractive from a fundamental standpoint and it improves the breath of the market, in technical terms.
Yes, I also like that the transports are leading the charge as they almost always do at the start of a new bull rally. TBSI was great trade for me. HRZ just broke out of a very nice base, though I don't have any (yet).
QuoteTBSI was great trade for me. HRZ just broke out of a very nice base, though I don't have any (yet).
Yep, awesome trade in TBSI, congrats :)
HRZ is a curious shipping company ... and it goes to show the importance of EPS in valuation. HRZ sells a lot but profits little, which is in sharp contrast with other shipping companies. I wonder why is that?
I'll take a look at HRZ in the Watch List section, thanks for the suggestion, the chart looks great.
GSB has been suffering from a multiple contraction like most stocks (also the 3rd quarter numbers were below expectations - but still showed strong growth), but I believe the price is cheap enough now.
Insiders agree with me, since they just bought 100,000 stock options at $4.1 (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112920/000117911008002250/xslF345X02/edgar.xml).
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
I feel bad for having been so complacent with GSB when it was trading above $7, as I "knew" the company would disappoint investors over the 3rd quarter, because analysts expectations were too high, and yet I just kept holding for the long term.
Now, instead of almost a 100% gain on this stock I look to the Main and ... it shows a 2% loss :-\
The lesson learned is: Don't be complacent and take profits when there's a strong fundamental reason to do it. There's always the possibility of buying back the stock later, at a lower or even higher price.
Anyway, now I see GSB as surely undervalued. The 2008 EPS estimate of $0.26 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GSB) is the worst case scenario and the stock trades at 14.4 times that estimate.
If GSB gets a new contract with a Government entity (like it did in Q2 2007), or if it has some business coming from the Synteras partnership, or if the Wide Area File Sharing and Continuous Data Protection softwares sell better than expected ... GSB will blowout those estimates and the share price will surely reflect that.
The 4th quarter 2007, given the sharp slowdown in the US GDP growth, is encouraging:
• GlobalSCAPE Projects 2007 Revenues to Exceed Guidance by almost $1M (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080115/20080115005223.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, Jan 15)
$4.4 M revenue is 12.8% more than in the prior quarter and means 62% growth annualized. I see that analysts are expecting $0.04 EPS for this quarter (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GSB), but given the guidance the company already provided I'm sure it will be $0.05 instead. Probably this positive "surprise" will provide a boost to the share price, just like the 3rd quarter negative "surprise" made it fall 50% from the highs ???
I'll continue holding GSB for the long term.
nice GSB interview about Wide-Area Management
Distributed data is having a big impact on the enterprise. How to manage the secure transfer of data around the world is the subject of this IT Link podcast, with Ellen Ohlenbusch, vice president of marketing and strategic alliances with GlobalSCAPE.
http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Infrastructure/WideArea-Management/
Hi la-onda,
I cannot read Deutsh...so what is the content in english of your link?
http://www.keinbockaufnazis.de
Is it anything in favour or against NAZIS?
AGAINST of course !!!!!!!!!
8)
Quote from: la-onda on February 19, 2008, 02:37:49 AM
nice GSB interview about Wide-Area Management
Distributed data is having a big impact on the enterprise. How to manage the secure transfer of data around the world is the subject of this IT Link podcast, with Ellen Ohlenbusch, vice president of marketing and strategic alliances with GlobalSCAPE.
http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Infrastructure/WideArea-Management/
Indeed La-onda, it explains part of GSB's story.
There was a press release just out from GSB:
• GlobalSCAPE Introduces FIPS 140-2 Version of Secure FTP Server (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080219/20080219005089.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 8:00am)
«FIPS 140-2 validation is required by most Government departments, including the Department of Defense, to protect the integrity of files that cross their networks. Similarly, companies in the healthcare, financial and manufacturing markets are under pressure to ensure that customer and patient information is secure in transit and at rest. With this third-party verified validation, customers can deploy GlobalSCAPE's FIPS 140-2 version of Secure FTP Server, knowing the software has met the highest security standards.»
«Pricing and Availability
GlobalSCAPE's FIPS 140-2 version of Secure FTP Server is available immediately for $895. For more information or a free 30-day trial, contact sales at 1-800-290-5054 or visit our website http://www.globalscape.com.»
I hope this good news helps GSB moving up from this $3.6 level ... it is painful to look at the chart below.
The long term fundamental story remains intact, but unrealistic expectations for one quarter and the inevitable failure to deliver on those expectations took the stock down 53% from the highs.
Anyway, a couple of years from now I see GSB at $16 or more and I'll keep holding it for the long term.
Well, we rose 1.94% on yesterday's session, not bad, considering the last three months or so :-\
GSB is expected to grow EPS by 40% in the next 5 years and it trades at 14 times 2008 EPS estimates. If the company indeed delivers on the 40% EPS growth, and consider it will earn 5 cents in the 4th quarter for an annual profit of $0.24, this means EPS will be $1.29 in 2012.
Apply the same EPS multiple that we have now and get an $18 stock.
This 40% CAGR is less than I expected when I initially bought GSB, but still very attractive in my view. And in 2007 EPS will grow 85% (from the 2006 level), so there's still a chance that GSB will do better than 40% growth over the long term.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
here is Zacks' GSB screen print.
I got back in GSB today, the market rally was my cue and the chart looks ready to turn around.
Quote from: tokyopua on February 25, 2008, 02:42:39 PM
I got back in GSB today, the market rally was my cue and the chart looks ready to turn around.
Hi Tokyo, GSB was left out of yesterday's rally, which disappointed some people and so they sold.
This type of behavior often happens in small and illiquid stocks ... traders think "relative weakness" when what's really happening is "illiquidity and lack of attention". But the volume increasing is a good sign, it means that value investors are being attracted by the lower price.
I think that in a couple of weeks time GSB will be back above $3.85. Over the long term I expect a lot more and I'll keep holding.
QuoteHi Tokyo, GSB was left out of yesterday's rally, which disappointed some people and so they sold.
This type of behavior often happens in small and illiquid stocks ... traders think "relative weakness" when what's really happening is "illiquidity and lack of attention". But the volume increasing is a good sign, it means that value investors are being attracted by the lower price.
I think that in a couple of weeks time GSB will be back above $3.85. Over the long term I expect a lot more and I'll keep holding.
One week has passed and GSB closed at $3.75, so just 10 cents to go back above the $3.85 support level. 4th quarter results will be out in mid-March and given the company's guidance (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080115/20080115005223.html?.v=1) I expect EPS of 5 cents per share for the quarter and 23 cents for the full year of 2007.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 03, 2008, 11:14:44 PM
QuoteHi Tokyo, GSB was left out of yesterday's rally, which disappointed some people and so they sold.
This type of behavior often happens in small and illiquid stocks ... traders think "relative weakness" when what's really happening is "illiquidity and lack of attention". But the volume increasing is a good sign, it means that value investors are being attracted by the lower price.
I think that in a couple of weeks time GSB will be back above $3.85. Over the long term I expect a lot more and I'll keep holding.
One week has passed and GSB closed at $3.75, so just 10 cents to go back above the $3.85 support level. 4th quarter results will be out in mid-March and given the company's guidance (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080115/20080115005223.html?.v=1) I expect EPS of 5 cents per share for the quarter and 23 cents for the full year of 2007.
Nice day for GSB, looks to maybe be perking up. What do you think the earnings you mention above will do for the stock price?
QuoteNice day for GSB, looks to maybe be perking up. What do you think the earnings you mention above will do for the stock price?
Well, if we get the 5 cents EPS I expect, that will be 25% above expectations (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GSB). It will also put the full year number at $0.24 EPS, above the $0.21 expected by analysts (which by the way is inconsistent with their 4th quarter estimate, since GSB already made $0.19 EPS in the first 9 months of the year).
With $0.24 EPS, GSB's trailing earnings multiple will be 15.6, which is attractive, since EPS growth from the year ago period will be 85%.
However, since the general market is so gloomy now, probably it will be tough to excite investors to push GSB to, say, 20 times earnings, or $4.8 a share. But with GSB there's always the possibility of a big and positive announcement ...
Let me just say that I believe the downside is limited and I remain confident in GSB as a sound long term investment.
By the way, let me just check GSB's big brother, RVBD:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43949;image)
Almost back down to its IPO price, what a misery :P
Still it trades at $18.26/$0.20 = 91 times 2007 EPS, or almost 6 times more than GSB. The differences in valuation from mid caps to small caps are huge.
Anyway, there's very strong growth expected for RVBD (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=rvbd) and maybe the stock is starting to get attractive. But GSB can grow as fast as RVBD so it a lot more attractive in my view.
I'll keep holding GSB for the long term.
I wish he waited until after 4Q earnings release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080305/20080305006269.html?.v=1
fully agree with you buddjas1 !
GlobalSCAPE President to Retire
Wednesday, March 05, 2008 17:26ET
SAN ANTONIO, Mar 05, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (AMEX: GSB) today announced the decision of Charles R. Poole to retire as President and CEO, and that he will remain with the Company as a consultant through the end of 2008 when his current employment contract expires. The Company also announced that it will conduct a search for a new President and that it would consider both internal and external candidates. The Company has appointed Kelly E. Simmons, the Company's CFO, as interim President until the search is concluded.
Thomas W. Brown, GlobalSCAPE's Chairman of the Board, stated, "GlobalSCAPE wishes to thank Randy Poole for his outstanding contributions since being named President in February 2004. Randy has helped us achieve profitability and growth in revenues from $4.9 million in 2003 to in excess of $18 million in 2007. Randy was also instrumental in building our sales organization which will continue to reflect his imprint for many years to come."
Mr. Poole stated, "My years with GlobalSCAPE have been a wonderful capstone to my 43 year business career and I look forward to my continuing role as a consultant and director."
I am a little concerned about Charles Poole's retirement, the timing seems odd. He was a driving force behind GSB. I am very interested in David's opinion of the situation.
Quote from: eggman11 on March 06, 2008, 10:09:18 AM
I am a little concerned about Charles Poole's retirement, the timing seems odd. He was a driving force behind GSB. I am very interested in David's opinion of the situation.
The following news ...
GlobalSCAPE President to Retire (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080305/20080305006269.html?.v=1)
Business Wire(Wed, Mar 5)
... is a negative surprise and a disappointment for me too.
Randy is that type of person who inspires people with his optimism, over promises and when the reality check is below expectations, he just walks away. He reminds me of someone else standing right here in my office.
The market reaction was awful, with GSB down 11.4% and I wish I had reacted yesterday so I could save some chips, but here it goes: I plan to sell GSB today!
I'm not worried about the 4th quarter results, but the future. Randy's exit and my change in the general market assessment (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=11018.msg112955#msg112955) just give me the incentive to consider some bearish facts about GSB:
1 - The company's consumer flagship product, Cute FTP, lost a lot of traction and revenues from this product declined to a fraction of what they used to be;
2 - GSB doesn't sell a recurrent product. Once they sell the software license for $5,000 or $7,000 or even $20,000, whatever, that's it. And it is possible that they have already sold their products to most potential costumers:
«GlobalSCAPE's products are used by mid-sized and large enterprise companies, including
virtually all of the Fortune 100, leading technology, banking, healthcare, and public sector organizations.»
To whom are they going to sell now, especially in a recessionary economic environment?
I've been winning almost 100% holding GSB and now I'll sell for a 13% or so loss. You don't have to tell me how frustrating this is, I know!
If you decide to just keep holding I fully respect your decision and wish you the best of luck.
:-[ :'( :-X
EVENT
In a press release issued after the close, GSB announced the retirement of the Company's President and CEO, Mr. Charles Poole. Kelly E. Simmons, the Company's CFO, who has been with the Company since September 6th, 2007 is the interim President and CEO. The Company also announced it has initiated a search for a CEO and will consider both internal and external candidates. Mr. Poole will remain as a consultant to GSB through 2008 when his contract
expires.
Key Points:
· Mr. Poole has been at the helm of GSB since 2004 and successfully guided the Company's listing from the OTC Bulletin Board (OTCBB) to the American Stock Exchange.
· Under Mr. Poole's leadership the Company's revenue grew from $4.9 million in 2005 to $18 million in 2007; a 54% CAGR.
· On January 15th, 2008, GSB announced it expected FY 2007 revenue to surpass $18.3 million, slightly above ours, $17.9 million, and the Street's consensus of $18 million.
· Mr. Kelly Simmons, interim President and CEO, is new to this industry sector. Prior to joining GSB, Mr. Simmons was CFO at US Long Distance (NASDAQ:USLD) and Billing Concepts (NASDAQ:BILL). While at BILL, Mr. Simmons held other positions within the Company, including
General Manager for a software organization.
· The Company's 4Q07 and FY 2007 earnings results are scheduled for March 26th, 2008. We will provide our updated valuations after the GSB earnings call.
· America's Take:
As we stated in our initiation report, we believe there is a growth trend in this market sector and that GSB is well-positioned based on its broad product portfolio. Additionally, GSB has been able to grow its top and bottom line over 60% in 2006 and 2007. We believe Q407 results would be in-line with the pre-announcement on January 15th, 2008 and the underlying business is intact.
· Intrinsic Valuation (IV): Our valuation was arrived at via the discounted cash flow method. Our model yields an intrinsic equity value for GSB of $173.0 million, or $9.00 per diluted share. At our IV, GSB will trade at 21x FY09 EPS.
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=12813
very disappointing price action imo
cheers O.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080326/20080326005983.html?.v=1
GlobalSCAPE Grows Revenue 67% and Net Income 100% in 2007
""While these results are outstanding by any measure, we have witnessed a slow down in our growth over recent months that requires us to speak with caution about 2008. We believe that revenue in our core business will remain steady in a range of $4.0 million to $4.5 million per quarter for the next three quarters. By the fourth quarter of this year, we will have introduced some new products that should bring us out of this cycle. We will speak to our progress as the year moves on and as we see this situation improving."
fyi:
cheers
Oliver
1.
Q4 Transcript:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70076-globalscape-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo
2.
America's Take:
GSB reported its 4Q07 and FY07 results last night after the close. FY07 revenues of $18.4 million were in line with pre-release, and modestly above ours and the Street's estimates ($18 million), representing a YOY increase of 67%. FY07 pro-forma EPS was $0.23. In 4Q07 revenues of $4.4 million were in line with management's pre-release estimates and higher than ours and the Street's estimate of $3.9 million. Management has given
conservative guidance for 2008 but expects profitability each quarter. GSB has a strong core business providing EFT, SecureFTP, and CuteFTP Pro, up 79%, 21%, and 28% YOY in 4Q07 respectively.
Key Investment Highlights:
Over the past year on several earnings calls, GSB management discussed key OEM/reseller strategy opportunities in the pipeline. In last evening's earnings call, the management team (interim CEO) stated they are actively speaking to multiple resellers and partners. This is a significant change in tone and pace from previous conference calls where a large OEM partner
seemed imminent and expansion into Europe was most likely a 2008 event.
The Company has reorganized to a product unit focus with four separate product groups: CuteFTP, Servers, WAFS, and New Technology. This organization change was implemented to expedite products into the marketplace. The Company is focusing on execution and we believe this reorganization is a positive sign in this direction.
We have modeled our FY08 revenue at $18.8 million due to insufficient visibility into the sales pipeline. Additionally our channel checks suggest CIOs are spending less in the current macroeconomic environment.
Management Guidance: Revenue guidance for 1Q08 is forecasted at 10% YOY, and for 1Q08, 2Q08, and 3Q08, at a range of $4.0 - $4.5 million. We forecasted 1Q08 revenue at $4.0 million with Non-GAAP EPS at $0.05. FY08 forecasts come in at $18.8 million, down from a previous
forecast of $22.3 million in revenue, and $0.23 in pro-forma EPS, down from $0.27. We note that revenue contributions from the Army contract as well as additional license wins (the three large non-government deals pushed into 2008 from 3Q07) could dramatically improve these results.
Intrinsic Valuation Discussion: Our valuation was arrived at via the discounted cash flows method. Our model yields an intrinsic equity value for GSB of $56.6 million, or $3.00 per diluted share, 20% above the stock's current price. At our IV, GSB will trade at 11X FY09 EPS. Risks include a history of spotty execution on goals.
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=12926
chart:
New 52 weeks low ! :-X
GSB: New 52-Wk Low @ $1.820 dn 2.67%
Friday , April 11, 2008 09:46ET
This is the 2nd 52 WEEK LOW alert for GSB in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for GlobalSCAPE, Inc (AMEX: GSB) reached a new 52-week low today, trading at $1.820, down $-0.050 (-2.67%) from its previous close of $1.870. The Company's previous 52-week low of $1.840 was set yesterday on April 10, 2008. One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $2.890. The price has declined more than 37 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 6,500 shares via 4 trades, 94.59% below it's 20day average of 120,115 shares.
This new 52-week low currently puts the stock:
16.01% below its 20day Moving Average of $2.167
39.51% below its 50day Moving Average of $3.009
54.34% below its 100day Moving Average of $3.986
&
Removed from naked short list:
GlobalSCAPE Inc (AMEX: GSB) together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes file management software for individuals and business users to send data over the Internet, and wide-area file system collaboration and continuous data protection products. It offers file transfer protocol (FTP) client programs, including CuteFTP, which permits corporate information technology professionals and individual Web site operators to request a file from or send a file to an FTP server or host computer; and CuteFTP Pro, a program that incorporates encrypted transfers using SSL, HTTP, and SSH2, as well as S/KEY password encryption. The company also provides file transfer servers, such as Secure FTP Server, which enables encrypted transfers, as well as facilitates system administrators to create, sign, import, export, and add digital certificates; and Enhanced File Transfer Server, a file server for enterprise-level solutions that offers repository encryption, additional protocol support, SSH security, data offload capabilities, and automated notification. In addition, it offers data replication products that consist of Wide Area File System that delivers a file access system, instant file-sharing, and server-to-server mirroring; continuous backup software that delivers continuous data protection; continuous database backup/disaster recovery software that delivers disaster preparedness for database information; and Enterprise product that delivers WAFS or multi-directional mirroring, and backup. Further, GlobalSCAPE provides Web content management products comprising Cascade Server, a solution for maintaining current information on a Web site, such as bottlenecks in the information technology department, lack of control and accountability, and miscommunication between content authors and Web developers; and various software products for purchase and downloading through its Web site. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in San Antonio, Texas. With 17.32 million shares outstanding and 95,900 shares declared short as of March 2008, there is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of GSB. According to quarterly data provided by the SEC, there were still 16,018 shares of GSB that were failing-to-deliver as of September 18, 2007.
Chart & GSB insider update:
GSB: Holds off on Buyback As Revenues Stagnate on Customer IT Project Delays
Monday , April 14, 2008 14:59ET
By Michael Cavallaro,
[email protected]Trading on GlobalSCAPE, Inc (AMEX: GSB) was down 5.747% following a new 52 week low in which the stock dropped to 1.64000 per share. As of March 2008, roughly 17.32M shares were outstanding and 95,900 shares declared short. According to quarterly data provided by the SEC, there were still 16,018 shares of GSB that were failing-to-deliver as of September 18, 2007.
During the company's March 26, 2008 conference call, investors questioned whether the company had any intention of executing a buyback in the midst of the current economic slowdown, as about $1.5M remains. But since the company's aggressive buying activity in January and February didn't impact the stock, it was annonced that "the Board will continue to leave its options opened and see what happens."
The company's stock decline may be a direct reflect of management's omission that revenues are not growing. Said CFO Kelly Simmons, "Our sales department still has a healthy pipeline of potential sales, but we are seeing some customers postponing the implementation of IT projects and some customers using more caution in their cost evaluation and selection of more expensive and advanced features."
Part of GlobalSCAPE's effort going forward will be to improve translations with non-English speaking countries in relation to its shopping cart. Said Simmons, "We believe that by making simple changes to CuteFTP, we'll get another $1M-$2M per year with very little additional cost. More importantly we are doing this as a marketing vehicle, a force through sales of our server products to other countries, just like we have done with U.S and Europe. So this is important to us and we are going to reinvest in it by improving our translations industry to India, Brazil, Mexico and Russia and by locating more born resellers in these areas."
GlobalSCAPE currently does not have plans to acclerate its marketing programs. Towards the end of the year, it will start to ramp up marketing again as some of its new products are scheduled to be released.
some life back in GSB >:D >:D
David, any comment from your side?
cheers
Oliver
GSB: Volume Spike; 21% > 20-adsv, Stock +14.01%
Wednesday, April 23, 2008 12:30ET
This is the 1st VOLUME alert for GSB in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for GlobalSCAPE, Inc (AMEX: GSB) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 12:30 ET, the stock had already traded 134,307 shares via 254 trades. The cumulative volume is 20.80% above its 20-day average of 111,183. Normally the stock experiences around 210 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in GSB's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $2.360, up $0.290 (+14.01%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $2.750. The price has declined more than 14 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session GSB has traded in a range between $1.600 and $2.200 and is currently trading 75.79% below its 52-week high of $9.750 set on August 17,2007 and 47.50% above its 52-week low of $1.600 from April 14,2008.
In the previous 3 sessions, GSB trading has displayed a positive trend. Closing results have been as follows:
April 22, 2008 --- closed at $2.070 up $0.140 (+7.25%) on 108,100 shares
April 21, 2008 --- closed at $1.930 up $0.078 (+4.21%) on 89,670 shares
April 18, 2008 --- closed at $1.852 up $0.082 (+4.63%) on 86,040 shares
::) ::)
just an update from my side. 8)
cheers
Oliver
complete annual stockholder meeting presentation:
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=5984317-5906-14991&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=76115&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1112920
best of slides incl. chart update:
update (thx Ket):
GlobalSCAPE Is Cited as a Leader by Gartner
Tuesday , July 08, 2008 09:00ET
SAN ANTONIO, Jul 08, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (AMEX: GSB) a leading developer of file transfer software for the Internet, announced today that Gartner, Inc. has positioned GlobalSCAPE as a "Leader" in its Magic Quadrant for Managed File Transfer report.
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company. This particular report helps companies evaluate Managed File Transfer ("MFT") vendors based on their annual revenues, ability to execute, and completeness of vision. The quadrants include the definitions of Leaders, Challengers, Visionaries, and Niche Players. According to the report, "Leaders are the most likely to have high revenue and commitment to the market, high market share and installed bases, and products that are of interest to a large audience. Additionally, leaders have presented domain expertise and compelling messages that have penetrated the market."
According to Gartner, the demand for MFT products and services is approximately $450 million per year, and is growing at a rate of 21% to 26% year over year. Gartner arrives at this growth rate from their belief that it's not just the overall market for MFT solutions that is growing at a healthy rate, but that the overall pool of enterprises needing MFT solutions is growing even faster.
Kelly E. Simmons, CFO of GlobalSCAPE, said, "We are always pleased to be cited by Gartner in their reports. We are also enthusiastic that Gartner is highlighting the hosted large file services and email attachment offloading solutions. Gartner's report is a strong validation of our recent introduction of CuteSendIt, our hosted big file transfer solution for email. Before the end of this year, we will also introduce a stand-alone file transfer software product for email servers. Our vision is to continue to make our secure file transfer technology available in many venues and in many languages, and the Gartner report helps to confirm this direction."
charts looks promising now, lots of bullish signs imho (see below), tomorrow we need confirmation
looks like a solid double bottom to me.....GSB was restisten the last months despite market turbulencens...good risk reward from here....could test 2.60 the next 2-4 weeks.
in 1.86 (stop loss around probably 1.75-1.79)
GSB: Appointment of James R. Morris as CEO
Wednesday, August 27, 2008 08:11ET
GlobalSCAPE, Inc. (GSB) announced James R. Morris as their new Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Morris has served in military intelligence, the civil service, and in senior executive positions for leading companies including General Dynamics (VP), Veridian (VP), Veritect (EVP), Trident Data Systems (SVP), SecureInfo (EVP/GM)and Synteras (VP).
GlobalSCAPE Ready for Major Rebound
GlobalSCAPE (GSB) is a software development company that develops products such as file transfer protocol [FTP] client programs, including CuteFTP, CuteFTP Pro, and Secure FTP Server. GlobalScape also develops Enhanced File Transfer [EFT] Server and Data Replication Products for Wide Are File Systems. I believe the company is undervalued and is ready for another of it's growth spurts. GlobalCAPE has healthy financials with zero long-term debt and a good pipeline of new products.
The real challenge with GlobalScape is that it is a small-cap,therefore, it can swing rapidly up (or down) with good news (or bad). The last few quarters earnings have been flat - thus the share price has fallen to a low point. But the pipleline has been growing with new products.
GlobalScape Positives:
* Forward PE of 5
* PEG of 0.15
* Insider Buying Actively Occuring
* New CEO James R. Morris in Place
* New AS2 Module Announced -
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080729/20080729005110.html?.v=1 - which is excellent for the meeting the required credit card, banking, & financial institutes secured transactions standards
* New File Transfer Website Announced - CuteSendIt.com - http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080701/20080701005208.html?.v=1 - easy to use for non-IT folks = nice revenue channel
Based on announced new products above, upcoming new products, new partnerships, FIPS certfied products for secured file management, very low PEG, and a past history of growth, I perceive that the next 4 quarters the stock will move from it's current bargain share price of 1.35 to 4.00 or higher!
GSB should be trading at a Forward PE of a 15. A good comparison is the larger competitor Commvault (CVLT) which has a forward PE of 15. GlobalScape should partner more with international ISVs like Commvault does.