3SOF

Hi, here is my take on EGHT:

  This stock historical trading pattern is that each of the previous three years, the stock  reached year high in December. The best time to buy is around August.

  See chart

Hi, David:

   Nice to hear from you again.

I bught DIET on October 4 with a price of $2.95 in my portfolio.

Reason: I checked its historical chart and the stock always makes big gains at year end and year start. So called year end rally.

In 2003, it went from $3.00 to over $9.00 in two month. In 2005, it traded straight up from low of around $4.00 to a high of $8.50.

But in 2005, it only went up from $3.00 to $5.00.

So I am just looking for another year end rally and it is about half way to the low target of $5.00.

I will be very careful once it reached $5.00.


Will hold it at least one more month to see how it develops.

Good pick. >100% gain so far. The problem for this account is that we are 70% in cash.


SVA in at $2.10 last month, $3.70 now and 76% gain so far.
Portfolio gined another 2.3% in October.
Total gained 2,186% since 2001-07-01.
Total gained 70% since 2006-06-01.

Quote from: 422fwhp on September 12, 2006, 04:40:46 PM
I sold for a small profit...too scary for me.

Many oil related companies are in oversold condition and is due to have a rebound (for ~30% - 50% gain).

Let us do some analysis on VLO:

In the last 4 years, VLO componded earning growth is 113.31%. That type of growth certainly will not last forever.

$0.21 -> $1.29 -> $3.34 -> $6.68.

But its share price gained more than 600% and that EPS growth already relfected on its price gain: it gain >100% in 2004 and > 100% again in 2005 (refleted its 100% growth rate in last few years).

As its growth slowed down or even reduced, its price will have difficulty to gain forther.

What I see is range trading in the next year. So, $50 is a very good price to own this company.

It may re-test its year low of $46. But the down risk is much smaller than up potential.

BUY from here.

We have done quite detailed analysis on ORCL:

Oracle earnings growth seems in right direction:

Its annual EPSs in the last 4 years are

$0.44 -> $0.51 -> $0.68 -> $0.81 

with regressive annual EPS growth rate of 21.18%.

If you use $0.81 x 21.18 growth rate, its share price will be valued at $17.16.

Therefore, I will ready to sell if it reached to taht target price. Market may overshot when it is really hot. But we need to know what is its value.

If it is undervalued, buy it.

We have done a detailed analysis on AMD's current valuation.

It started to see INTC's fight back. But in server market, AMD is winning the fight for now and for the next 12-18 months.

We maintain the midterm target of $35 and may go higher. Midterm mean the end of this year.
There may have some dips in the process.

ORCL is cerainly a blue-chip tech stock. But it has no potential to give us big return. It is too big.

Many other tech stocks will have big runs in coming months.

HLIT already gained 70%, RMBS 80%, AMD 40%, many others will follow.

CCJ has topped out. Best place to put your money is in tech sector now.

Commodity stocks have run up a lot and need to take a rest.

Still down trend, best entry point is $8.5, similiar to HOTT which I took a position last week at $9.55.

The market is quite hot. Many good buys for short term 30% gains.

TRID will test year high of $30 in short period of time.

Quote from: shawFund on August 09, 2006, 08:31:32 PM
About SVA:

   If your holding period is one year, I am pretty sure that you will be profitable.

   Short term, not so optimistic. Many people are looking for a repeat of last year's pattern.
   But those may disappoint. For me $1.85 is a good entry point. Big player will try to shake most small players out before pushing it up.

   I used multi-buy strategy for stocks which went down at least 50% from recent high or 90% from its high.

For example, SVA: if I bought at $2.45 and it went down, I will double my position at $1.3 (average down to $1.68) , then double it again at $0.65 (average down to $1.09) and holding for one year for a 100% or more return (if it goes up to $2.18) if you really believe in this company's future.

   No stop loss is placed. But profit must be protected if there is any.

That is my post few weeks ago.

If you are investing not gambling, you should not look for day to day price swing and sold for one year or for 100% gain before you sell the stock. You can also have multi-buy strategy if you believe in this company's products, management, etc.

Technical indicators are not very helpful in selecting stocks. Fundamental is much more important.

SVA future: still uncertain because it only passed trial I (4 patients), but it may go back to $7 again.

Reason: it traded to as high as $8 this year and now the chance of succeed is much more than few month ago.

For me, I bought some when this portfolio sold, that is what I mean shake-out ($2.10). When it tried to re-test its low the second time, many people feared and sold. That is the time to buy.

I like to buy on the double bottom and if it break-down, double my position. No one will shake me out. No one. Always buy-low and sell-high.

But you need to know the company. It must be a company worth you to put your hard earned money.

Technical and fundamental both favor up trend, target $17-$18.

But the downside is that it is too big to have meaningful run. May still back to range trading.

As I said that the market does not want to repeat last year's price patterns.

But I am keeping it on the watching list.

Tell you an insider news  I just heard in Beijing:

Because the success of SVA in US market (It gained 700% and 750% last two years and many people became rich), the Beijing science park is putting money in many small bio start-ups and some will trade in US market soon. I will keep you informed if I know anything meaningful.

My portfolio gained 10% so far this month. Among them,

AMD 30%,

EPIX (a pick from 3stocksonfire but sold for a loss) gained 54% (+84% from July buy price),

DRYS +20% (sold at  $13.25),

HLIT +11% (+41% from July buy price)

Potfolio gained 6.5% July.

Totasl number of closed trades since 2001: 37. 33 wins, 4 losses.
Portfolio total return: 1,597%. My target: total return 3,000% year from now.

Many semi and tech stocks will have big runs by the end-of-year.

Some questions about the trading plan for XING:

We took position at >$7 and now >$10.00

I don't know why the stop loss order is $6.80. We have >30% profit already and should move the stop loss order higher to protect the profit, not tuning a profit into a loss.

Just my opinion.