3SOF

My pick is Centillium Communications - CTLM It has been rising like a rocket recently and appears to be the only pure semi-play for the Telecom triple play buildout. Its product portfolio includes silicon integrated circuits and associated software that are used in communications equipment for various broadband markets, including digital subscriber line (DSL) and Voice over Packet (VoP) applications. Expect that CTLM reports a profitable quarter on Wed Apr 26th. They are in three fields - VOIP, Fiber to premise, ADSL2/VDSL2. They have clean balance sheet with 60 mill in cash plus $10 mill coming from shares offered recently at 3.40. They have no debt, deals with many, manage inventory efficiently and have reduced op expenses to about 12 mill per quarter. The potential to see $ 20 is here as mkt cap is only 206 mill. Applying forward PE of 60  CTLM would only have to earn 36 cents per share in a year to hit $20. That means $15 profit or $3.6 mill per quarter. With 55% margins revenue must only increase by $7 mill per quarter to make it. Look promising. Technically expect to hit $7 by contest end from current price of $5.11.

Here is the chart:

TRAD along with AMTD and OXPs are all taking beatings - primarily on back of OXPS weaker than expected report. TRAD has been down here before and doubled inthe 14. 80 are twice in the past month and today once again hitting a low of 14.91. As I write this TRAD is hugging $15 and I expect it will go back to 14.80 area. What I am not sure of is if we hold or start to fall lower. That would be bad and I may have to revist my entire streatgy with TRAD if that happens. When it broke below 16.40 the other day it broke out of it upward channel and now we are hoping to hold medium term support at 14.80, but I am afraid we may have to test the 100 day at 14.11. I have made a lot of money with TRAD so I will continue to hold as long as 14.80 holds. If that breaks I am not sure what I will do. Its too bad its below 50 day EM support of 15.48 which it was above this morning before the sell-off started.

Good luck

Setravis and others:

As you know I am in and NENG is my contest pick - today we reached a double top on the new high - I think we will break thru tomorrow and wait till the new PR comes out next week

Great stock

Defenderyou

Have not posted but TRAD is stock that is usually easy to make money with as it will trade in a channel and then every now and then, as it did today, break below it. The channel support today was 16.40 and having sold half my position at 17.15 the other day (should have sold 100%) I re-entered at 16.40. Well it traded down almost to the next support area of 15.80, where I entered the last time. Now that we are back into the 16.30 area we need to get above 16.60 in order to resume the climb to new highs. However, I am not convinced that we may not first re-test 15.80 area. Anyway, I am confident that we will get back to $17 plus by end of week if no next week, and this time make a charge at the prior high. If I were buying I would enter below 16.20 and ideally at around 15.80-90 area. The only real risk to this is bad overall market I think

Started out fine but could not get though that 11.43 with any conviction; did not sell - glad to see that it maintained the 11.80 area; worried about a potential drop to $10. Will see if it holds or decides to fill in the gap down to 10.23? david what are you doing?

David - I managed to load up on prices between 11.10 and 11.21, avg 11.16. This is below your support of 11.43; Are you at all concerned that we have moved a lot lower since Friday and why? Personally I was trying to buy at 10.97 and then at 11.05 but had to chase a bit. I think the bounce off of 11 is quite constructive and is the main reason why I bought. I guess I expect a retest of 11, and then higher on up to $12. DO you agree?

My pick is NENG. I told everyone that I probably should have picked NENG for the third contest after I picked my other choice (and loser). NENG was up 38.6 % over the third contest window, which would not have one, but would have been good for third. So this time I am going to stick with NENG as I think its got a lot more to run. To understand NENG, start with this ---

CANTON, Mass. & SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 18, 2006--Network Engines, Inc. (NASDAQ: NENG - News), a leading appliance partner for Microsoft security solutions and Websense, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBSN - News), the world's leading provider of employee internet management solutions, today announced the integration of Websense Web Security Suite software with Network Engines NS Series Security Appliances. Websense Web Security Suite is now shipping on the NS6400 and NS8400 security appliances....

AND....

"Mr. Shortell joins Network Engines from Nokia where he was the Senior Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing. During his tenure there, he was credited with developing Nokia's enterprise delivery network of distribution and reseller channels. While responsible for the global sales and marketing of Nokia's Enterprise Businesses Group, he expanded the business from $14 million in 1997 to more than $1 billion in 2004 by building sales and services in the network security, appliance, connectivity and mobility segments."


Now the OEM side is making more money than it was before and they have the NS side ready to start creating income. Shortell is here to make that happen. I personally feel that he will make it happen. The climb to $11.60 in 03 was pretty fast and steady. When one of these NS deals they have in the pipeline goes through, this stock will explode upwards, IMO.

"Everyone was sure it was going to give most of its gains from the 1.88 to 2.44 run, but it did not and on Friday it exploded upwards to a new high of 2.56, closing at 2.55. I started buying at 1.31 a few months back.

Before this week began I thought we would consolidate for one or two more days, get a PR which I thought would be Getronics, and move right up to $2.75. Well we got two PR's not close to the value of the Getronics news IMO, broke first and final resistance and landed at $2.55. With the Hetronics PR , we should move above $3.00 to $3.25

If you look at the chart below, NENG bottoms on its pullbacks and there is typically only a few days before it starts its next run. That pattern repeated itself here and is of note if you are swing trading this stock. If investors take note of that pattern we could see much more explosive moves off our retracements in the future. Simply stated, when we start to move now, we are going to move fast.

I would not want to be sitting on a short right now. One good PR and this stock is up 20-25% in a day form here. Thats what I believe.

From Yahoo MSG Board: "On Friday a buyer was buying everywhere and doing it frantically, almost as though he was on a time schedule, or either his order was so large he had no choice. I'm almost positive he was even taking out the ask occasionally when things slowed down. It makes one wonder how much he is trying to buy and I for one will be curious to see if it continues Monday. I do not think he was taking the ask to short it though, it just appeared as though it was being bought very aggressively.  This buying finally solidified everything we have been hoping would occur as far as the business model being successful. Smart money is being exposed and they apparently like it and feel certain this company is now in turnaround mode. ... I don't think it will be giving up much gains until we move further, unless this smart money is finished buying, my guess is that it has just started. "

Here is the chart:

Well david:

Fill the Gap had the best message about ABLE. I have been following ABle and used today as an entry point as well. Thought I picked the rebound at 8.75, but got hosed inthe last 15 mins as I went to the corner store and missed the plunge to daily low of 8.32. AH its trading lower. I am surprised as I think the deal that took it higher is solid, but if this does not bottom soon will have to cut my losses.

As Fill stated - this is a very dangerous stock,  along with GEOI, which I usually play in.

I will research this more tonight and write more later, hopefully saving myself anymore losses OR convincing myself to stick around.

Good luck, but not a good entry point for you nor I

I started a new thread on this, not realixing but wrangler shoed me the way here

Read my stuff on Members Forum if you want to see

PPHM is a core holding of mine from 1.26; the stock was truly on fire when jfra posted his views. However, pphm got to 1.75 and then took a HUGE tumble today to 1.45. I think the stock will resume the climb as the fundamentals point to Tarcavin data being released on Feb 27th - if the dataa is positive this stock will soar

I have been investing in TRAD since the first time you recommended it. I am still invested, but I have found that TRAD is very easy to trade in an out of also. 5 times I have sold TRAD at or near its latest high only to be able to buy it back again .50 to 1.00  or even 2.00 lower to catch the next trend upwards. Technically, I have never been as succesfull using technical signals to trade a stock that I like as I have been with TRAD. My most recent entry was at 17.25 and I am long 8000 shares having sold 200 today at 17.70 as I became a little concerned that we would not get through the 17.80s new high. I actually expected it to break to new highs tomorrow but the GOOG news will hurt the market overall so we may see it come back down to the support area in the 17. 20s /30s. I know this is not a thorough analysis but I just wanted to let you know that I find this stock extremely easy to read from the price cycles and have been very successful trading in an out while capturing most of the long-term action. IF I coudl do as well with other stocks I would make zillions!

I know that you are long SIFY but as you know all too well, REDF and SIFY are a highly corelated pairs trade. I could not get any REDF to short, so I shorted SIFY (1000) at 10.37 just a few minutes ago. I see that SIFY almost closed the gap down (up to 10.72, while gap close is 10.80), but now there is a gap down to 9.05. Its funny ho Cramer pissed on SIFY the other day saying sell, calling them basically fools for not being able to execute and Internet strategy, to only come back and rec REDF like that. Seems totally inconsistent. I guess I never understood your rationale either, unless you intended to do a pairs trade (long SIFY, short REDF); but as an outright long or short I think both should be shorted. Did you use the opportunity to sell SIFY and take a nice 15%-20% profit on the purchase the other day??

As far as contest, I picked the worst of my three choices - NENG or GEOI - my two other choices would have placed me in the leader board; instead I picked MPET, and am surely on the loser Board. Well maybe the UDACHO field will be a winner and I will eat my words.

MPET is my contest pick for the third contest. See the pick list!!! This is going to break out to $4 if the Udacha well comes in anyday now!!

I dont know what happened but I posted my pick : MPET and nothing was posted, so here I go again.

My pick is MPET: Magellan Petroeum Company. It has to be OIL; consider BMD again after 60 minutes tonight, and NENG my last pick which would have put me into Top 3 if I had one more week, but for rocket fuel I pick MPET this time.

MPET is:

Magellan Petroleum Corporation engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and gas reserves. The company, through its subsidiary, Magellan Petroleum Australia Limited, owns interest in various properties, including Mereenie Oil and Gas Field, Palm Valley Gas Field, Nockatunga Oil Fields, Dingo Gas Field, Browse Basin, Maryborough Basin, and Cooper/Eromanga Basin in Australia. It also holds interest in various oil and gas properties in New Zealand and the United Kingdom. In addition, the company has a 2.67% direct interest in the Kotaneelee gas field in the Yukon Territory of Canada. Magellan Petroleum Corporation was incorporated in 1957 and is based in Hartford, Connecticut.

MPET owns 55% of MAG in Australia; MAG owns 30% of Udacha JV which is closing in on 2.3 NEW miilion barrels of oil any day. Udacha drilling is to 2775 m, and they are at 2188mm tonight. If this hits big it will be int he next few days (may even be tonight so I may be to late by the AM as opening wil pop), but given the oild situation I have to go with this, I expect to get to $3 this week and $4 before contest end to break out over July 2005 highs. Also, largest volume since ept 2005 on Friday with sharp move up to close at 2.23, up .31 on Friday. The chart speaks for itself.

Dave you may be right, but I dont like the volatility of this stock so I dumped near its high today at 14.20 with a 27 cent profit on 2k shares - not much but +++.

I will watch this one


Defenderyou