3SOF

I thought I read somewhere that under the buyback program, they were only allowed to by around 150k shares/day.  Is that not true?

I've been seeing some large print ads for SIX at the grocery store Ralphs, also in LA. 

Quote from: David Randolph on March 11, 2008, 09:08:50 AM
SYX results were fantastic, double of what even I expected.

...

It's really a shame that I'm almost obligated to sell SYX despite the great fundamentals, because after what happened with MALL ... it's clear that investors see these electronic retail businesses losing money in the future and they may very well be right, who knows how deep the US economic recession will be in terms of consumer spending?

While it is clear that PPS is more about how investors see the future of a business , I believe that even in a recession, online retailers will be strong...at least more so than retailers who have to pay rent at mall or on some property.  Those are the retail companies that are going to fold first, and if anything, when they do close up shop people will have to do their shopping online. 

Personally, I've been buying more and more online.  Shoes, electronics, clothes...why go to crowded malls when you can just do it from home?

Yukiii - Take David up on his offer - let him set you up a portfolio here on 3SoF.  What do you have to lose? 

Quote from: wxmang on May 15, 2007, 05:43:12 PM
I was feeling the "Travel Zoo" sickness until I read this in the report:

"Total revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2007 increased to approximately $4.3 million, compared to total revenue in the previous quarter of approximately $4.2 million; and an increase of 163% compared to total revenue of approximately $1.6 million in the first quarter of 2006."

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/nytu186.html?.v=61

Holy Moley!
163% Rev Increase YOY!
Wow!

Doesn't matter...the market was expecting better results.

I'm anxious to know what David thinks about them.

Well, I think you can all thank me for this.  I decided to sell my GIGM and in turn pickup TZOO.  This always happens...

Hi Dory99 -

You can use the formula:

(Final Price) / ((X+1)^n) = Optimal selling price

Final price = expected valuation at the end of our term.
X = share price CA(annual/yearly term)GR percentage that we will no longer be satisfied with...0.16 here.
n = term, in years (annual), that was used to determine the final price.

So,

$148.96 / ((0.16 +1)^3) = X
$148.96 / (1.16^3) = X
$148.96 /  1.56 = X

X = $95.43

This can be put into Excel in a way that makes all the variables easy to manipulate, and saves one from having to do this calculation by hand. 

Looking forward to the document David!  Keep up the great work .

.derek

Hi David -

Sorry to be nitpicky, but 17.81^0.1 is 1.3337, not .3337.  To be correct here, the formula is 1.46 B*((X+1)^10) = 26 B.

Since X is the percentage increase per period (a year in this case) we need to add the 1 in there to add that percentage to for each of the periods we're considering...10.

What you've got down is this:
X = (17.81)^(0.1)
X = 1.3337, or 133.37%

Technically, it should be like this, 1.46 B*((X+1)^10) = 26 B, gives you
((X+1)^10) = 17.81
((X+1)^10)^(1/10) = 17.81^(1/10)
X+1 = 1.3337
X = .3337, or 33.37%

.derek 

Quote
It's nice to see the market plunging and the Main Portfolio up 1.64%

I agree - it's got a strange appeal to it.   

Quote from: mbaugh on March 13, 2007, 12:21:30 PM
David, Excellent work on GOOG!!

Still hanging onto those puts here...maybe they'll be worth something in the next day or two...

QuoteDoes anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

I agree - plus, with that spike today GOOG closes the gap it left a week or two ago.  I think by mid next week GOOG will be back down to $440 or lower.

Great call on HEPH David - good memory 

QuoteThe second case would be to keep the number of months the same and change the future gains required based on actual performance. So in this case the minimum gain required is lower by 1% because of the SOF performance of 51% in the  first two months.

Hi George - The problem is that you can't change the future gains because we don't know them...we can only use data that we already have.  One can look at it many ways I suppose, but the correct way was the calculation David stated.

Either way though....nice.   

Quote$22,710*(1.51^X) = $150,000 <=> 1.51^X = 6.6 <=> .... hmmm, I stumbled here, can't quite remember how to solve this equation, any math expert in the house?

Take the natural log of both sides of the equation (ln):

ln(1.51^X)=ln(6.6)
x(ln1.51)=(ln6.6)
x=ln6.6/ln1.51
x=1.89/.41
x=4.6

So 2 months times 4.6 = 9.2 months.

(I think this is right...)

There it goes.  GOOG taking a dip