3SOF

Quote from: prodigykid6 on February 16, 2007, 10:40:18 AM

Quote from: nullzero on February 16, 2007, 10:22:09 AM

Quote from: zibeaster on February 16, 2007, 10:17:37 AM
heard from someone, don't know if it is reliable. CPNE was going to sell 20m shares 2 weeks ago at $2.35 a share. but it was oversubscribered and the seller was going to raise the price.

don't know what is this means. but may generate a buying opp if it dips on the news.

Hehe the rumors are flying around on CPNE because its been on fire the last few weeks. I think we are going to hear a lot of fabricated stories and rumors etc. over the next couple weeks for CPNE. Short bashers, longs that want to buy lower, and big money that want to load for cheap all want the PPS to lower.

Why would CPNE sell shares after they just announced a share buy back? That just doesn't make sense...All I know is there going to be releasing amazing earnings at a conference full of investors. If anyone sells between now and earnings next week there an idiot.

If it is ever true, it will likely happend after their earnings guidance (which should provide a pop to the price). besides, in the long run CPNE is bullish anyway. so I am not concerned.

heard from someone, don't know if it is reliable. CPNE was going to sell 20m shares 2 weeks ago at $2.35 a share. but it was oversubscribered and the seller was going to raise the price.

don't know what is this means. but may generate a buying opp if it dips on the news.

mbaugh, good work

many of the sites like you mentioned are not merely stock picking sites, they get paid for mentioning stocks too. usually with free trading shares from the company. so they can move a stock by trading it if they do is skillfully. One skill I am trying to develop is, how to identify a stock before they pop it. It would be a very profitable skill if I can ever learn it

this stock is over valued. The shenzhen stock exchange only makes about $3.8 million a year, if you give it a P/S ratio of 5 (Nasdaq trades at 2.6 PS ratio), it only values at $19million. 15% of that is $4 million.

IMOT has 180m shares, with a price of $0.30, it is $48million market cap. considering it is losing money all the time, a $10million market cap is more reasonable.

Mbaugh, I forgot to mention, the top gainer list I got from Interactive Brokers is on a trading screen, so there is no link to post.

Quote from: mbaugh on January 20, 2007, 11:42:38 PM
Which daily top gainer list do you use?  Could you post a link to the site?

This list is from my broker, Interactive Broker

I must say I have a change of heart after looking at its website. It is a cool site and may be there is a good story here.

Quote from: Michael on January 20, 2007, 04:03:22 PM

Welcome to the world of Nintendo investment. Here fundamentals don't have any significance whatsoever.

Micheal, no idea my post got such a passionate response from you.   Actaully, I don't disagree with your points.

I got in EXCS with a daily top gainer scan on Jan 17. added some next day. Then I got a more than double on Jan 19. I was elated and sold 2/3 of my shares. I did all this mainly based on the technicals. Now I need to think how long this party will last.

It is hard to gauge the significancy of this most recent deal. it can be big, it can be nothing. One thing is for certain, the company needs cash right now! They did a PIPE deal in June quarter and spend all of it next quarter. Of course, all these doesn't mean anything if people just pile on this latest news. That's why I still have 1/3 of shares.

if you look at its past news releases, almost all of them are great news, yet the company continue to going downhill. Of course this time might be different, they got rid of CEO (this is a story of its own, company said CEO verbally resigned, but CEO said he didn't, they are fighting this in court now)

Anyway, I will play along and may reload my shares and more. but as everyone already know, be quick and be aware of the risks.

good luck.

I sold most of my holdings, still have some.

But be cautious, Looking at its balance sheet and press release history, a PIPE deal is coming soon.

FORG looks to be ready to run up again. 200ma is crossing over 50ma.

David, I have not done nearly enough homework on MSI so my numbers are just rough guesses. I like to post here and hopfuly not to make too much fool of myself:)

As for store number, I remeber I read somewhere but I think you are right. they probably just have 130+ now. In this link (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2006-12-19-fredericks_x.htm?csp=34), it  does say they will open 50 new stores in next 3 years. it also said they seek to refinance Fredericks' term debt.

The 400 sqft store I saw is in an upscale mall. it is small but very well presented. Today however, I went to see the other store in my area (Washington DC), this one is also in a shopping mall. But it is bigger, about 800-1000 sqft selling space, this store seems to be older and presented differently, may be because of space shape difference. In both stores, they have 2 sales associates. This is on the weekend so they may have extra help. This is probably the typical of their stores. But I think they have some bigger ones. The orginal store in Hollywood might be a big one.

In terms of store sales and profitbility. My guess is the rent/tax/insurance/water/electricity cost about 20k to 30k a year if the lease is signed recently in my area. The labor cost may be 40k to 60k. A 50% gross (they probably can do 60% gross) means the annual sale of 180K to break even. That means $490 a day, which they should be able to do.

I agree that they have 10 years to close non profitable stores, I think they also found the profitable store formats, otherwise they won't have the confidence to open new ones.

I agree with you that they will grow and they are ready to grow. while their online revenue is growing, my guess is they were also shrinking the store size to make it profitable in the past 10 years. They are now ready to get some public money to help them grow faster.

David, I agree with your analysis on the online revenue amount. I was wondering how come 175 stores only have up to $50 million revenue. But I just found out that their stores are pretty small. The one I saw only have about 400sqft. A store like that can make money if it can sale 250k a year.

I think the big question mark is the debt situation. how much and what term it is. my guess it is at least managible. otherwise they would use the public money to pay the debt, in stead of openning new stores.

Fredericks of Hollywood was bought for $70 million in 1997. ten years later, it is a much better company and should worth at least $100 million. MSI was about $13 -$16 million before the merger news broke out. that puts the company at $113 and $116 level.  This translates to the price of about 2.40 for MSI. So the downside is limited.

I can think of two things to spoil this valuation, high amount of debt and dilution by the number of convertable shares. I haven't read MSI's 10Q so i don't know if they have any convertable shares. The debt situation is unkown, but by  how the company has opened stores and plan to open them, it shouldn't be an issue.

today FFHL had a solid break out of the down trend line. it looks great

OK, to further convince myself, I am posting this.

We like to play stocks that gave us big wins before, even though it may not be the right time or same play anymore. I am wondering if this is the case for FFHL. Hopefully it is not and FFHL still have value in a quick swing. I think I personally tried too hard to play the FFHL momentum again. I have done this before and lost money on subsequent plays and turned 100% gain into a 50% gain. So it is beneficial to try to think this through as objectively as possible.

Fundamentally, We know it makes 59cents and will be 25% to 30% higher in revenue this year. If they make 0.75 this year, that makes current forward PE of 17.3 at the price of $13. I think market can fully support this price, so if you are a long term holder, there is nothing to worry about it.

I believe for a quality Chinese stock (I really mean reliable, there are companies that give you fraudulent numbers) should command a forward PEG ratio of 1. This is because of two reasons,

1) The country is growing at 10% a year; this adds the credibility to the growth estimate (or may be the growth estimate already reflects it?)

2) The currency appreciation in next few years. This means higher EPS when converted into US dollars. Of course this can be offset somewhat by raw material cost if they import.

In FFHL's case, if the raw material costs come down, its margin will improve. So this year's EPS can be higher than 0.75.  If we just use 0.75, using a growth rate of 25%, we get $18.75.

So fundamentally, FFHL is as sound as any other stock. We shouldn't worry about buying 50 cents or a dollar lower at all.

Now if we want to milk every penny out of the stock, which we shouldn't but like to do ,  I got chart below



FFHL was rising along the trend line 2. At candle A, it put in a low of 14.50. It attempted to rally next day and failed. That was a sign that things has changed and I sold  and thinking to stay at sidelines until the trend changes again.

At candle B, I thought it was a bottom because it was at some Fibonacci point of that big white candle on Dec 28. If we were to reverse, it better do it then because further drop will damage the up trend. I  bought and the next day it went up before it dropped down near the open. The good thing is, I sold half at the top and the other half stopped out at $14.70. so a good profit.

At candle C, I thought again it was a bottom because it dropped near $13, which is very close to support line 3. For good stocks, you never wait until exactly at the support because you may miss it. I bought again and next day (today), it went up again before drops back. Today we are not at the support line 3 yet, but close. So I think this may be a bottom again

History suggests I am a serial bottom caller on this one and can not be trusted . But that is what happens if you try to catch the bottom. At least, in previous occasions, they all are valid trading bottoms (even though it is only one day), People have enough chance to get out next day and make a profit, which I did. .

Right now, a bottom can only be more reliably called if FFHL crosses above the trend line 1. If we stay around $13, we will do that in a few days. If we break support line 3, if it is not a fake break, we may go to $11 or support line 4. The tough part is, you only know it is a real break after it happens. That is unpleasant and if you think it can happen, reduced it tomorrow morning

Ok, this is basically an exercise of self analysis to learn from mistakes and figure out what to do next. I feel better now after this exercise. My plan is hold and stay put. Hope this did not bore you.

Quote from: 422fwhp on January 11, 2007, 05:06:42 AM
Are you trying to convince yourself?

LOL, it sure sounds like that. I took a full position at low 13s.  my feeling is, even if it goes down more, it is not much more.

buying more at low $13s. it is at least a safe play