3SOF

> The market says this story will end in the Pink Sheets or with UTVG delisted due to fraud or something like that ... at least the valuation says that will be the case, or else how come UTVG would be this cheap? It is also possible, even though less likely, that the market is just inefficient in pricing UTVG ... or else people just know there will be bad news somewhere down the line and just dump the stock until the truth is revealed.

You are really just guessing.  For all you know, there could just be one or two big share holders who really need the money now - and it could have nothing to with the company.  And that selling pressure may have led others to decide to sell as they saw the price falling, so it builds itself.  I think this is just a likely as anything you've guessed.  If you have some reason to think I'm wrong, then please tell me as I have a good deal of money in this stock.

According to people posting at investorvillage, the stock was sold by CHFI.  One person commented:
"The pps of UTVG was $.60 when CHFI received 1,200,000 shares for surety guarantee services July 12 2006."

This was also posted:

http://sec.edgar-online.com/2006/11/14/0001188112-06-003451/Section8.asp

Note F - Marketable Securities



As of September 30, 2006, the Company's marketable securities consisted of
shares the Company has received as payment for providing surety guarantee
services to SMEs including 2,956,795 shares of China 3C Group ("CHCG"),
1,200,000 shares of Universal Travel Group ("UTVG"), and 480,000 shares of Home
System Group ("HSYT").


The 2,956,795 shares of CHCG represent approximately a 6% interest in the
current issued and outstanding common shares of CHCG. The CHCG shares were
received as payment for surety guarantee services provided for CHCG's December
21, 2005 merger transaction with Capital Future Development Limited. The closing
price of the CHCG shares was $0.10 per share on December 21, 2005. As of
September 30, 2006, the closing price of shares of CHCG common stock was $1.83
per share. Since the CHCG shares are reasonably expected to qualify for sale
within one year, the securities are not considered restricted for the purposes
of SFAS No. 115, and, accordingly, quoted market prices have been used to
determine fair value.


The 1,200,000 shares of UTVG represent approximately a 6% interest in the
current issued and outstanding common shares of UTVG. The UTVG shares were
received as payment for surety guarantee services provided for UTVG's July 12,
2006 merger transaction with Full Power Enterprise Global Limited. The closing
price of the UTVG shares was $0.60 per share on July 12, 2006. As of September
30, 2006 the closing price of shares of UTVG common stock was $0.83 per share.
Since the UTVG shares are reasonably expected to qualify for sale within one
year, the securities are not considered restricted for the purposes of SFAS No.
115, and, accordingly, quoted market prices have been used to determine fair
value.


The 480,000 shares of HSYT represent approximately a 6% interest in the current
issued and outstanding common shares of HSYT. The HSYT shares were received as
payment for surety guarantee services provided for HSYT's August 4, 2006 merger
transaction with Oceanic International (Hong Kong) Limited. The closing price of
the HSYT shares was $1.00 per share on August 4, 2006. As of September 30, 2006
the closing price of shares of HSYT common stock was $0.51 per share. Since the
HSYT shares are reasonably expected to qualify for sale within one year, the
securities are not considered restricted for the purposes of SFAS No. 115, and,
accordingly, quoted market prices have been used to determine fair value.


A summary of the above marketable securities is as follows:


September 30, 2006
Cost: CHCG $ 295,680
HSYT $ 480,000
UTVG $ 720,000
Add: Unrealized Gain $ 5,156,055
Fair Market Value $ 6,651,735

Hi Scots.  I liked the strangle ideas you posted back when the stock was at 15.  I'm finding calls to be a bit expensive now, though.  I've been assuming that I could count on the stock reaching 26 after approval but not necessarily higher.  So I'm a bit leary of calls that place me close to 26 before I even make any profit.  Almost better to just hold more stock if I want further exposure.  Maybe the stock will drift down at some point before the decision comes out.  Even leaps seem a bit expensive to me.  Can I really count on the stock reaching 40 or 50 in a year?  It would be nice though to get some extra leverage with a portion of my money.

Thanks Scots.  I'm very bullish about DNDN but worried what happens if I'm wrong anyway.  I have a large position in it, so I'm looking for ways to hedge it.  I'll look into what you wrote on ratio call spreads.

I think you both need to investigate this stock further.  The FDA really showed their hand at the panel hearing.  The CBER division of the FDA is in charge of the final decision.  The head of that division and the head of a subdivision in charge of the panel were there.  There were 2 votes, one on safety, the other on efficacy.  The safety vote went 17-0.  Then the efficacy vote, the key one, started.  The question they were asked was whether the company had established the efficacy of the product.  The first person asked said no.  At that point the head of the subdivision brought up that maybe the question should be changed to "substantial evidence of efficacy", but nothing was done.  After 4 no votes, the head of the CBER division handed a note to her and she stopped the vote.  She forced the question to be changed because the new wording was in fact the correct wording according to FDA standards.  (You can find it in general documents of the FDA on their website - I've seen it myself.)  The vote was re-started and all (well, I can't remember if it was all, but definitely most) 4 no votes changed to yes votes.  In the end it was 13-4 yes.  I should add that even before the panel met, when the final decision was given to the CBER division, people following the stock closely thought the likelihood of approval went way up.  See an article in early March by David Miller (you can find it via Google) for evidence.  He's been covering the company and this therapy for years.  Everything I'm mentioning can be found on the investorvillage website mb for DNDN.  I did not watch the proceedings myself, but people who were watching were posting a running commentary there as the panel met, and I read that, allowing me to follow in real time.  Some summaries of what happened were published afterwards there.  David Miller also notes the FDA role in the question change in a comment to a WSJ article in the journal published, I think, on Friday.  (It can also be found at the mb.  You might need a subscription to WSJ to find it on their site.)

I think the FDA has already shown their hand.  It's only a matter of no more than 45 days before approval happens.  One way to play it if one is worried is to hedge a long position with puts.  I plan to do that, even though I think the FDA has already shown how they will vote.  Still, I felt I could not say "I know".  I think besides my large amount of stock, I'll also by some calls.  I think there could be a good deal of volatility, so might be good to play with some shares in day trades, but on the other hand, the decision could come early and I would not want to be out of my long position when it happens.

I am fairly new at this, and would appreciate any feedback on whether my plans make sense, and if anyone has any alternative ideas.

Please add EGR to the poll once again.

Please put EGR back on the list.  It is again up today.

Please add dxpe to the poll.

David, I'm interested in your thoughts on EGR.  It's having a great run.

David, could you put ABAT.OB on today's poll?  I would have voted for it if I had looked up the stock ahead of time.  It looks good to me.  I'd be interested in your take on it.  There's an interesting article on it at http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070319/29904_id.html?.v=1

SIGA is on fire.

Thanks la-onda.  I had no idea there was so much information about the stock here.  I guess I should do a search before I recommend anything.  I feel a bit foolish now.  I still think David should consider it for the 3stocksonfire portfolio.

David, I think you should take a look at SIGA.  I know it's a biotech stock, but I think if you are really interested in a 10-bagger, you need to consider some biotech stocks.  (After all, look where you'd be today if you bought Celgene 4 years ago.)  SIGA is a small company which I think will go much higher this year, probably starting this month.  They have developed a cure to smallpox that has proven itself effective and safe - and they have a pipeline of half a dozen other promising drugs.  The company is in a transition now as they just brought a new CEO on board (though no stranger to the company - and a man of much prestige) to bring this product to commercialization.  It was announced in January and he started March 1.  News is expected any day now on a lawsuit to dismiss claims to the drug by a company they almost merged with last year.  The company plans a conference call to discuss where things are at in 2 weeks or so.  (That piece of information comes from a posting on yahoo from someone who called the company yesterday to find out what's happening.)  I think other news is also imminent.  As far as I can tell, there has been no dilution for at least a year.  They seem to derive their funding from the government.

Yesterday, the stock rose suddenly 14% on large volume near the end of the day.  This is not the first time such a thing has happened in the past couple of months.  Last week during the market downturn, this stock did not go down much, unlike many other small biotechs.  It stayed in a narrow channel between the 20 and 50 day ma.  Monday it did breakdown, but yesterday returned it to levels higher even then before the latest market breakdown.

SIGA is rising like mad on heavy volume.

David,

What do you think of SIMC, BPG, and ESST?

Jim