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PAL

Started by David Randolph, May 22, 2007, 09:08:43 AM

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yukiii

Quote from: David Randolph on June 01, 2007, 05:14:08 AM
QuoteIts all in the way you look at things.  I look forward you are looking at the past.

Hehe, I knew I would bring you back to the debate. I'll look at EGO over the next update. Just food for thought, management likes to dilute.

Up 8% last 2 days

David Randolph

QuoteUp 8% last 2 days

So?

This is the 6th time EGO goes up 8% or more in two days over the past three months, and it didn't go anywhere:



Good luck :)

There were good news out for PAL:

• North American Palladium Ltd.: Drilling at the Narkaus Property in Finland Confirms High Grade Reef and Contact Style Mineralization
Market Wire (Fri, Jun 1)

Nice partnership with Gold Fields (GFI), a $11.4 B market cap company (PAL is just $600 M).

Palladium closed above its short term descending trendline and looks set for a move to new highs:



So, everything is ready for PAL to break its own short term descending trendline (tomorrow at $11.34) and aim for a new high above $12.36.

I'll keep holding PAL.

David Randolph

Nothing new on PAL, let's see if the stock is able to make a bullish breakout today. It just needs to stay the same to close above the short term descending trendline on the chart below.

I'll keep holding PAL.

yukiii

Analysts at HSBC reiterate their "underweight" rating on North American Palladium Ltd (NAP.FSE). The target price has been raised from $5 to $7.

David Randolph

Quote from: yukiii on June 06, 2007, 01:12:26 AM
Analysts at HSBC reiterate their "underweight" rating on North American Palladium Ltd (NAP.FSE). The target price has been raised from $5 to $7.

In a few months they'll reiterate their "underweight" rating, but raise the target price from $7 to $10 ;D

PAL is still dealing with long term technical issues:



2003 was a great year, the company made $0.58 EPS back then (similar number of shares outstanding). But in 2004, 2005 and 2006 the company returned to losses, so the stock went down. In Q1 2007 PAL had the first profitable quarter in 7 quarters.

Management says good times are here to stay:



I'll keep holding PAL.

David Randolph

After all PAL still reacted negatively to the short term descending trendline and came down to touch support at $10.79 again. It recovered some ground by the close, to finish at $11.04.

I enjoy mining and want to hold at least one mining company and PAL is by far the most attractive in my opinion. I'll keep holding PAL.

Garoh

It will start going up when it hit 7.48 as shown in the chart .

No Pain No Gain

berloga


Garoh

Quote from: berloga on June 07, 2007, 08:36:02 AM
Did you mean "$10.48", Garoh?

Yes berloga 10.48  thanks for the correction  :)
No Pain No Gain

David Randolph

PAL broke down badly yesterday, what a pity. But there's still technical support given by the closing of a gap at $10.23 and the 50 days SMA at $9.93. Declines to the 50 days SMA are normal in most rises, look at the latest PAL's advance phase:



PAL's fundamentals now are much better than what they were in 2003, Q1 2007 revenue was the highest ever, and by a wide margin:

• North American Palladium Reports First Quarter 2007 Revenue Increase and Profitability
Marketwire (Wed, May 9)

Gold mining companies trade at stratospheric multiples (9 times revenues, on average). I don't see why PAL should trade at less than 2 times estimated 2007 revenues.

I'll keep holding PAL.

David Randolph

PAL closed the gap completely and in the process it almost touched the 50 days SMA support, as you can see on the chart below. Volume picked up to 550,000 shares. The stock goes higher from here, I'll continue holding it.

David Randolph

Quote from: yukiii on June 10, 2007, 05:46:52 PM
Back to pre-cramer prices picked up some shares on Friday, good entry point.

Yes, good entry point. That Cramer indicator is curious. It's a pity CNBC here in Europe doesn't show Cramer's TV show, instead they show Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien. Well, they're all funny clowns LOL.

PAL is rebounding after reaching the 50 days SMA support level. But it needs to cross over the descending trendline, today at $10.95, to be definitely bullish, not just over the medium term, but also over the short term.

Palladium prices are at $371 an ounce now. I believe they're going higher over the long term, and I'll keep holding PAL.

David Randolph

PAL closed right at the 50 days SMA support level, and held Friday's low of $10.03, closing at $10.06. I'm not sure we're at the bottom of this stock's correction, but I do know that it is the most attractive mining stock I've ever laid my eyes on, and I've seen dozens of them.

I'll keep holding PAL.

yukiii

PAL is at support if it breaks next support is $9.50

David Randolph

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 10:45:47 PM
PAL is at support if it breaks next support is $9.50

It didn't break. Reacted positively to the 50 days SMA support. I expect PAL to push higher and eventually breakout above $12, since this is probably the most attractive mining stock outthere (ex-copper mining, strong industry consolidation there).

A pullback to the 50 days SMA is absolutely normal and to be expected, as it happens almost always in strong ascending trends. Unfortunately I bought higher, so I don't have the chance of buying at support. But obviously I'll continue holding.