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Quote from: Garoh on June 05, 2007, 04:31:25 PM
This the reason for the sell off today :

SOURCE: Form 144

ISSUER: SILICOM LTD
SYMBOL: SILC


FILER: ZISAPEL YEHUDA
TITLE: Chairman of the Board
BROKER: CIBC WORLD MARKETS
RESTRICTED SHARES TO SELL: 130,000        DATE REGISTERED: 5/29/2007
APPROXIMATE DATE OF SALE: 5/16/2007
  The Form 144 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to
  reflect the intention of any holder of restricted stock to sell those
  shares.  After the 144 is mailed to the S.E.C., the filer is permitted
  to sell the shares, or any fraction of them, within 90 days.

Form 144 Data Source: The Washington Service
                      ([email protected] or 301-913-5100)


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  06-04-07 2324ET

23:24 060407

It will effect this stock more when this news come out on Yahoo ..

just for a short term ..

Hi garoh

from did you get this information?
it doesn't seem to appear anywhere...

thanks'
Aviv

.

Quote from: Garoh on June 05, 2007, 04:31:25 PM
This the reason for the sell off today :

SOURCE: Form 144

ISSUER: SILICOM LTD
SYMBOL: SILC


FILER: ZISAPEL YEHUDA
TITLE: Chairman of the Board
BROKER: CIBC WORLD MARKETS
RESTRICTED SHARES TO SELL: 130,000        DATE REGISTERED: 5/29/2007
APPROXIMATE DATE OF SALE: 5/16/2007
  The Form 144 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to
  reflect the intention of any holder of restricted stock to sell those
  shares.  After the 144 is mailed to the S.E.C., the filer is permitted
  to sell the shares, or any fraction of them, within 90 days.

Form 144 Data Source: The Washington Service
                      ([email protected] or 301-913-5100)


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  06-04-07 2324ET

23:24 060407

It will effect this stock more when this news come out on Yahoo ..

just for a short term ..

I don't think that is reason for the sell off. The shares are already sold. I think it just nervous selling by investors hitting stop limits.

"I don't think that is reason for the sell off. The shares are already sold. I think it just nervous selling by investors hitting stop limits."

I think so too.
Silc has had a healthy 13-15% correction and seems to be holding the 50 day MA.
I Just put my money where my mouth is and double downed at $20.60.
I am breaking all kinds of rules by increasing my position from 6.6% 12.2%, but I am a newborn "speculator."

Wx

Quote from: wxmang on June 06, 2007, 02:30:26 PM
"I don't think that is reason for the sell off. The shares are already sold. I think it just nervous selling by investors hitting stop limits."

I think so too.
Silc has had a healthy 13-15% correction and seems to be holding the 50 day MA.
I Just put my money where my mouth is and double downed at $20.60.
I am breaking all kinds of rules by increasing my position from 6.6% 12.2%, but I am a newborn "speculator."

Wx

Always double down if you have faith in the company and nothing has changed.

I've been thinking about SILC since yesterday, in doubt about the way I should write this update.

Four "negatives" happened over the past four months:

1) Q1 earnings were below my expectations. I had to review my revenue CAGR estimate from 2 to 1.84 and increase my dilution factor to 1.12.

• Silicom's Momentum Continues: Q1 Sales up 84% to $6.0M with Net Income of $1.2M
Business Wire (Wed, Apr 25)

I decided not to take profits (even though I knew the stock would decline after earnings), because I wanted to hold the stock for the long term, and I know that not so strong quarters always happen in between of a big long term advance.

2) The company made a $17.9 M private placement

• Silicom Ltd. Announces $17.9 Million Private Placement of Ordinary Shares
Business Wire (Fri, May 4)

I've held, saying the company opted to get financing right away, instead of slowly selling shares. I've increased the number of initial shares outstanding and reduced the dilution factor to the current 1.02.

3) One of the company's insiders decided to sell 130,000 of his 770,000 shares.

I kept the faith, because the insider will still hold 640,000 shares, and his selling probably isn't connected with the company's financial performance, like it happens in most cases.

4) The stock closed decisively below the 50 days SMA for the first time in 2007.

This makes me think about the best course of action ... fundamentally the company seems to be on track to earn more than $1 per share in 2007 (it earned $0.22 in Q1 2007) and revenue growth and net profit margin are awesome. The company is just a $137 M market cap, operating in the fast growing area of WAN optimization and server appliances. But of course, the future holds risks. It is possible that in Q2 2007, instead of making, say, $0.25 - $0.30 a share, SILC makes, say $0.10. Like it happened last year, at the same time, when a below trend quarter took the stock down 70% from its peak:



Now, imagine you bought SILC in November 2005 at, say, $5. Today it is above $20, so it is more than a 300% return on your investment in about 18 months. But, in the middle of it, you would see the stock up 140% from your buying point and then go down to show you a loss of 25%. Would you be able to sustain this kind of adversity?

I don't think so, most of you guys would lose faith and just bail out.

Now coming back to the present, I may be right and SILC will be a $92.35 stock in late 2009. Long term fundamental trends say that if everything continues, that will be outcome. However, it is possible that the private placement and the insider selling, happened around these levels because there will be a soft quarter, say, a $0.10 EPS quarter or worse. That could take the stock back down to $10 - $12, that is, after a 100% return, I would be losing. I could still be right about the long term, but it doesn't matter, because most of you would just bail out, not only of the stock, but leave the 3 Stocks Premium service too. You would lose faith not just in the stock, but in me as an analyst too.

So, what to do?

Well, technically the stock shouldn't break the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on close (that level stands at $19.4) and there's short term support at $20.12. If I put a stop at $18.9 I'll make a 50% profit on this trade.

I'm afraid I'll have to let the market decide what I'm going to do, if the stock trades down to $18.9 I'll kneel down and take my 50% profit. If not I'll keep holding.

The lesson for the future is: take your profit when you see the stock going down due to a fundamental development. For example, I could have sold SILC at $26 and CIMT before the 1st quarter earnings, because I saw the decline coming, but didn't want to lose sight of the long term, because I would like to have my 300% returns two years from now. But there's no absolute certainty of that being the outcome. And over the short term performance declined and several people just lost faith.

I'm sure you see the paradox.

Ideally, I would sell the stock near the top and buy back near the bottom, hence taking advantage of the intermediate swings. The problem is that in order to do that, one has to focus on short term information, and indications keep changing, and one isn't able to hold for the big swing that way.

This update is long enough already, the trading plan is:

HOLD SILC, unless the stock prints $18.9. If that's the case, SELL.

Hi David,

I hope all is well with you and your family. I am very confused about what you said in your last post:

>>The lesson for the future is: take your profit when you see the stock going down due to a fundamental development. For example, I could have sold SILC at $26 and CIMT before the 1st quarter earnings, because I saw the decline coming, but didn't want to lose sight of the long term, because I would like to have my 300% returns two years from now. But there's no absolute certainty of that being the outcome. And over the short term performance declined and several people just lost faith.<<

Are you suggesting that you anticipated declines in SILC and CIMT in excess of 25% - that were the result of (negative) fundamental developments? Up to this point, I did not think that there were "negative" fundamental developments affecting these 2 stocks that you thought would cause sharp declines.

I think it is a great idea to hold stocks for the long term, and to reap the benefits - but I do not think it is a good idea to hold the stock through sharp declines - especially sharp declines that we anticipate in advance, due to negative fundamental developments. I don't think this is "losing faith" as much as I think it is "losing capital". Regardless of how much "profit" we have in a stock, I consider that "profit" to be "capital" once it is gained - and I believe that we, as investors, should protect our "capital" in the best way we can.

To protect our capital, I believe we should avoid any declines that we can anticipate in advance - regardless if we choose to continue to invest in the stock for the long term or not.  With SILC being 24% and CIMT 48% off the highs, I know that I would have liked to have avoided any part of these declines, if possible - and probably most people here feel the same as I do.

David, don't you think we should sell our position if we anticipate declines? What we are saying here is that there was a negative fundamental development in the company, but we do not know what the impact on the stock will be. In the case of CIMT, the impact was large. Isn't it possible that any deterioration in fundamentals could be an early sign of further future negative fundamental changes in that company and stock? Isn't it possible that CIMT does not have such a "bright" future?  Shouldn't we wait for concrete evidence that CIMT is indeed headed down that "prosperous road"? Right now, we have concrete evidence that revenues and profits declined in the most recent quarter, and that the stock is 48% off the highs.

Thank you for your time and insight

Bourbon 

There is a lot panic. The last few days the market has been down and SILC being a voltile small float has been down as well. The stock has had 12-13 quarters of growth. They are announcing new deals on a regular basis. (I can't wait for the next one to be announced, hopefully that will be trigger to start us on our way over 25). After next quarter earings, we will probably listed in the IBD top 100, which will give us huge exposure. Our earnings ratings is currently 74 once that reaches 80, which it should easily after next quarters earnings, we will be a shoo-in in the top 100. Our other scores all already high enough (in the mid to high 90's). With our small float, the IBD top 100 exposure, probable analyst coverage from some of the firms that bought the private plavement at $20.50, and the announcement of more deals, this has all the potential to be a huge winner. With all of these factors and some postive momentum, we might be able to hit 50 this year. I added more earilier this morning in the low 20's

I hope I'm wrong but this is what I see from a technical view :

I think this decline will end when we reach 17.70 to 17.90   
I could be wrong but I,ve seen  it in other stocks before ...
There's someone keep selling all the way down .....Who ? 

Quote from: Garoh on June 07, 2007, 10:36:19 AM
I hope I'm wrong but this is what I see from a technical view :

I think this decline will end when we reach 17.70 to 17.90  
I could be wrong but I,ve seen  it in other stocks before ...
There's someone keep selling all the way down .....Who ? 

I don't think we will see a close below $19.25 if we even get that low. The private placement at $20.50 is acting like a kind of support. I don't think we will go lower than about 5%-10% lower then the placement price.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 07, 2007, 04:44:33 AM
HOLD SILC, unless the stock prints $18.9. If that's the case, SELL.

What about the guys like me who bought this stock in the $20-21 range?  Same advice?

There is no need to panic and sell based off the technicals or fundamentals. The fundamentals aren't bad enough to sell this stock. We all know where SILC is going long term. I know david doesn't like doubling down but nows the time to double down. If anything SILC will consolidate at these levels before rising again unless we get a near term catalyst. Once the 200 day moving average catches up we will take off again. Stay strong guys. I know where I'm putting my next pay check 

LOL!

Prodigykid6, when you say >>Once the 200 day moving average catches up we will take off again.<<

You know the 200 DMA is at $12.33, right?

Like David said previously, SILC might see another 70% decline off the highs - just like last year.

I guess the Question is: Can you be a long-term investor, and have a long-term investor mentality, without sitting through difficult declines (like the one that SILC went through) that can result from a bad quarter?

I think that preserving capital (aka Profits) needs to be a major part of our formula. If that means that we sell a stock to avoid major declines that can happen to small-cap, thinly traded companies, like SILC - then maybe a shorter term-horizon is more appropriate.

Just a thought and best of luck with all of your trades!

Bourbon   

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on June 07, 2007, 01:06:33 PM
LOL!

Prodigykid6, when you say >>Once the 200 day moving average catches up we will take off again.<<

You know the 200 DMA is at $12.33, right?

Like David said previously, SILC might see another 70% decline off the highs - just like last year.

I guess the Question is: Can you be a long-term investor, and have a long-term investor mentality, without sitting through difficult declines (like the one that SILC went through) that can result from a bad quarter?

I think that preserving capital (aka Profits) needs to be a major part of our formula. If that means that we sell a stock to avoid major declines that can happen to small-cap, thinly traded companies, like SILC - then maybe a shorter term-horizon is more appropriate.

Just a thought and best of luck with all of your trades!

Bourbon   

I'm not saying its going down to $12.33. I'm just saying that 200 day moving average will push up the stock price the closer it gets. Sounds like you already sold your shares and are looking for a dip. But if you are up big take a little off the table and buy on the dips.

Time to buy guys just hit support on the S&P 500 1495

As long as yields on the two and ten are above 5 I don't think we'll have a meaningful rally off support....