3SOF

Just curious Yukii - Like David, will you be selling if it breaks $18.90?

Hey guys just got up here in Hawaii, market is up that's great. I would hold onto SILC and see where it goes going into earnings in August. No point selling now.

Keep buying yukkii...


Morgan Stanley issues triple sell warning on equities

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:19am BST 07/06/2007

Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
   
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a sell signal
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'

Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.

"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.

The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.

"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
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The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."

Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.

source:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/06/cnmorgan106.xml

Quote from: ket1390 on June 08, 2007, 12:28:34 PM
Keep buying yukkii...


Morgan Stanley issues triple sell warning on equities

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:19am BST 07/06/2007

Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
   
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a sell signal
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'

Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.

"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.

The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.

"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
advertisement

The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."

Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.

source:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/06/cnmorgan106.xml

Teun Draaisma. Don't know him. Yeah he tells people that the european market will go down 15%
after they have gone down 6% already. Then he see's market going back up. Duh a bit late he should have put this report out a week ago.

The fast money traders on CNBC werent too impressed with the historical accuracy of the Morgan Stanely triple sell call.

Its a good friday, shorts are covering, market up 124. I said buy yesterday hope some of you got in to some bargins yesterday.

Thanks for your strategic inputs, I'll consider them, but you know, I can't please all styles at the same time. I believe the important thing is that I provide valuable information and share trading experiences.

Concerning SILC, buddjas1 gave an advice on the stock:

Quotehttp://What?!?  Your entry point is $14 or so?  You have plenty of room to have strong hands and let this one run.  Have you forgot about the recent design wins that will be reflected in the next earnings release?  The time to sell was at $25; not $19.  $19 is the time to buy.  Don't let this one get away from you that cheap.

You're right, at $25 - $26 it was obvious that a fall would inevitably happen, and at the time I said (not in the exact update of the high, but the next one): "I'm not going to recommend selling SILC here to then recommend buying it back $3-$5 lower". We're now about $5 below, so ... why the weak hands, everything is going as expected.

Well, not everything, in between there was a private placement that diluted shareholder's value. It took my estimates down. But, as I read the CEO's words from the latest earnings release:

«Commenting on the results, Shaike Orbach, President and CEO, said, "The momentum of our business accelerated again during the first quarter, enabling us to achieve another record quarter in terms of revenues, operating profit, net profit and cash. This strong performance demonstrates the cumulative benefit of our growing Design Win platform, together with the ramp-up of demand for our BYPASS adapters. Our business is being driven by the exciting growth of several target markets, especially the WAN Optimization market, which is still in the early growth phase. We are working to take advantage of our favorable positioning to address this and other high-potential markets, and are optimistic regarding our ability to deliver strong growth over the long term."»

There were some positive news too, like the "Giant telecom" news (I didn't like the tone of it, but ...).

Considering all I've been through with SILC, forecasting a short term decline and not acting on it because I wanted to be a long term investor and see beyond a "weaker than expected" quarter, I guess I can't chicken out and put a trailing stop, asking for the market to shake me out, before doing what I always expected it to do.

Therefore, I'll change my trading plan for SILC again, and will keep holding whatever happens.

Triple applaud. 

Quote from: David Randolph on June 08, 2007, 04:28:07 PM
Thanks for your strategic inputs, I'll consider them, but you know, I can't please all styles at the same time. I believe the important thing is that I provide valuable information and share trading experiences.

Concerning SILC, buddjas1 gave an advice on the stock:

Quotehttp://What?!?  Your entry point is $14 or so?  You have plenty of room to have strong hands and let this one run.  Have you forgot about the recent design wins that will be reflected in the next earnings release?  The time to sell was at $25; not $19.  $19 is the time to buy.  Don't let this one get away from you that cheap.

You're right, at $25 - $26 it was obvious that a fall would inevitably happen, and at the time I said (not in the exact update of the high, but the next one): "I'm not going to recommend selling SILC here to then recommend buying it back $3-$5 lower". We're now about $5 below, so ... why the weak hands, everything is going as expected.

Well, not everything, in between there was a private placement that diluted shareholder's value. It took my estimates down. But, as I read the CEO's words from the latest earnings release:

«Commenting on the results, Shaike Orbach, President and CEO, said, "The momentum of our business accelerated again during the first quarter, enabling us to achieve another record quarter in terms of revenues, operating profit, net profit and cash. This strong performance demonstrates the cumulative benefit of our growing Design Win platform, together with the ramp-up of demand for our BYPASS adapters. Our business is being driven by the exciting growth of several target markets, especially the WAN Optimization market, which is still in the early growth phase. We are working to take advantage of our favorable positioning to address this and other high-potential markets, and are optimistic regarding our ability to deliver strong growth over the long term."»

There were some positive news too, like the "Giant telecom" news (I didn't like the tone of it, but ...).

Considering all I've been through with SILC, forecasting a short term decline and not acting on it because I wanted to be a long term investor and see beyond a "weaker than expected" quarter, I guess I can't chicken out and put a trailing stop, asking for the market to shake me out, before doing what I always expected it to do.

Therefore, I'll change my trading plan for SILC again, and will keep holding whatever happens.

Triple Bottom today! Reversal next week

Quote from: realcoolhead on June 08, 2007, 04:42:55 PM
Triple applaud. 

Quote from: David Randolph on June 08, 2007, 04:28:07 PM
Thanks for your strategic inputs, I'll consider them, but you know, I can't please all styles at the same time. I believe the important thing is that I provide valuable information and share trading experiences.

Concerning SILC, buddjas1 gave an advice on the stock:

Quotehttp://What?!?  Your entry point is $14 or so?  You have plenty of room to have strong hands and let this one run.  Have you forgot about the recent design wins that will be reflected in the next earnings release?  The time to sell was at $25; not $19.  $19 is the time to buy.  Don't let this one get away from you that cheap.

You're right, at $25 - $26 it was obvious that a fall would inevitably happen, and at the time I said (not in the exact update of the high, but the next one): "I'm not going to recommend selling SILC here to then recommend buying it back $3-$5 lower". We're now about $5 below, so ... why the weak hands, everything is going as expected.

Well, not everything, in between there was a private placement that diluted shareholder's value. It took my estimates down. But, as I read the CEO's words from the latest earnings release:

«Commenting on the results, Shaike Orbach, President and CEO, said, "The momentum of our business accelerated again during the first quarter, enabling us to achieve another record quarter in terms of revenues, operating profit, net profit and cash. This strong performance demonstrates the cumulative benefit of our growing Design Win platform, together with the ramp-up of demand for our BYPASS adapters. Our business is being driven by the exciting growth of several target markets, especially the WAN Optimization market, which is still in the early growth phase. We are working to take advantage of our favorable positioning to address this and other high-potential markets, and are optimistic regarding our ability to deliver strong growth over the long term."»

There were some positive news too, like the "Giant telecom" news (I didn't like the tone of it, but ...).

Considering all I've been through with SILC, forecasting a short term decline and not acting on it because I wanted to be a long term investor and see beyond a "weaker than expected" quarter, I guess I can't chicken out and put a trailing stop, asking for the market to shake me out, before doing what I always expected it to do.

Therefore, I'll change my trading plan for SILC again, and will keep holding whatever happens.

The stock - DOESN'T LOOK GOOD.

I'm sorry but now this is the test for the short term.
the stock has a resistance in the 19.7$, but as we all could see the stock closed in 19.88$
but the difference is that the MACD histogram is negative and in the mean time just getting more negative by the day.

i liked the long term fundamentals of SILC but we shouldn't forget that the stock is currently trading in P/E of 33 after the decline.

there are people who are Selling after a huge profit - and many More as David who will sale in the stock will cross the 50% Fibonacci.

unless the stock is going to show that it is holding the 19.7$ Resistance I'm afraid that we'll see
allot of people selling in order to try and save their profits.

SILC 11% of the float is short now.
top holders

BJURMAN, BARRY & ASSOCIATES   331,000   5.24   $5,451,570   31-Mar-07
OBERWEIS ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.   248,700   3.93   $4,096,089   31-Mar-07

While waiting for SILC to go back up,
Comex gold has been declining since peaking at $698.0 on April 20.  Precious metal will stabilize this week, as weakness approaches the 200-day simple moving average at $640.7. With increasing economic uncertainty in the wake of last week's dramatic rise in US Treasury bond yields. Buy gold stocks AUY, EGO as gold approaches $641.

As I remember correctly 3SOF rules indicate each  topic should have its own thread
this one is for SILC and therefore any other good comment should be elsewhere.

Suggest we all stick to the rules and guidelines as in any organized community.

Thanks 

Quote from: avivwiz on June 09, 2007, 02:19:51 PM
The stock - DOESN'T LOOK GOOD.

I'm sorry but now this is the test for the short term.
the stock has a resistance in the 19.7$, but as we all could see the stock closed in 19.88$
but the difference is that the MACD histogram is negative and in the mean time just getting more negative by the day.

i liked the long term fundamentals of SILC but we shouldn't forget that the stock is currently trading in P/E of 33 after the decline.

there are people who are Selling after a huge profit - and many More as David who will sale in the stock will cross the 50% Fibonacci.

unless the stock is going to show that it is holding the 19.7$ Resistance I'm afraid that we'll see
allot of people selling in order to try and save their profits.

I agree totally with you

RSI 2 and fast stochastic say its way over sold. wouldn't the resent decline simply be a short profit taking which was expected?
so wouldn't this be a great opportunity for it to come back?
don't get me wrong I don't know as much as you guys do about the market, after all that is why I pay for this service so I can have another avenue through which I can gather more information in order to make a more informed decision on my own trades.

I believe SILC will pullback a bit.
If I am holding now my shares and not holding it for the long-term, then I would sell from here and come back later at the support area at $16.00, that's about 20% down from the current level.

But I also believe that this company will go up over the years to come, I like their products (PCI Express Adapters this is way faster than PCI.... and other networking equipment.