3SOF

Don't forget to see what SILC is doing in the Israeli market.

i'll keep you all posted

Quote from: DragonAMG on June 08, 2007, 11:58:22 AM
Just curious Yukii - Like David, will you be selling if it breaks $18.90?

Actually the old low was 19.06 on May 6th so that would be key support if you adjust that for now it would be closed to $19.37. If you notice on friday we went down to $19.37 then recovered to 19.93. Then closed at 19.85 after the close. I would watch those numbers on Monday. The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish (Doji) Star Pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. We will see??

Quote from: Garoh on June 07, 2007, 10:36:19 AM
I hope I'm wrong but this is what I see from a technical view :

I think this decline will end when we reach 17.70 to 17.90   
I could be wrong but I,ve seen  it in other stocks before ...
There's someone keep selling all the way down .....Who ? 

I still have the same point of view :

I sold half of my position after I've seen the news about selling 130,000 shares and when it broke 22.88 and I still see the price I mentioned which is 17.70 to 17.90 maybe this week ..

that would be my entry price of not I will wait until It close above 21.50 and buy back ....

This is a great stock .. I Invest and in the same time I daytrading  do I don't recommend to sell this stock as long as it a short time change ...

I still wish I'm wrong in my thoughts

drifting lower on light volume today...

SILC went down some more today, even as the market went up, and I guess the cause is the selling by some core shareholders, partially or completely. Or better, the cause for today's fall was the selling from small fish because of reports saying that big sharks sold their position in SILC. There was an SEC filing saying that Bjurman Barry & Associates is now holding 0 shares of SILC, instead of the 663,100 shares they held in December 2006:

Form SC 13G - 06/08/2007

Form SC 13G - 12/27/2006

Well, this firm sold, others bought. Shares are always changing hands, and there's no reason to believe that sellers know more than buyers, in my opinion. What I care about isn't who owns the shares, but how much they'll be worth.

Given the current fundamental trends I believe SILC will be worth a lot more than the current market price. I see at least $1 EPS in 2007, and that means SILC is trading at less than 20 times forward earnings, and I don't think that's fair given the company's 84% revenue growth rate and the 20% plus net profit margin.

I'll continue holding SILC.

From magic on Yahoo boards.

SILC closed at $6.56 before its October/06 earning. After the earning, SILC surged to as high as $9.39 in 3 days and then started to pullback. The stock was mostly traded at middle $7 level even though it did drop below $7 shortly. It built a solid base at $7 and then started to move up before the next earning. The stock closed at $10.00 before its January/07 earning. After the earning, the stock surged to as high as $16.00 in less than 2 weeks and started to pullback. It found a strong support at $12 even though it did drop below $12 shortly. The stock spent a couple of weeks to build a base at $12 and then started to move up again before the next earning. It closed at $24.66 before its April/07 earning. After the earning, the stock rose to as high as $26.74 and then started to pullback. The stock found a strong support at $20 even though it did drop below that a couple of times. This strong support was based on SILC's low forward PE (about 20), compared favorably with its peers such as RVBD (forward PE of about 80). Also, the private placement price of $20.50 also served as a protection here because institutions didn't buy this stock for a loss. Therefore, even last weeks' brutal selling of over 300K shares by Bjurman, Barry & Associates did not undermine this support. Bjurman, Barry & Associates had at least quadrupled in their investment in this stock because when I accumulated this stock at $5 last September, they were also a big holder.

If we look at the timing, SILC was basing at $12 exactly 3 months ago (early to middle March). The stock started to move up in middle March and doubled in a month. Now SILC is basing again at $20. With Bjurman, Barry & Associates out of the way for a big profit, we won't have many sellers below the private placement price. As the next earning is getting closer, we will probably see the pre-earning run, similar to last quarter again.

we are bleeding slowly everyday... when is this going to end?

As long as bond rates are moving up I don't see how stocks can rally especially small caps. I think this will hit the 61% retracement on the fib. I will look to start accumulating in that general price range.

I was pretty unlucky with 3 stocks on Fire Portfolio: I bought the three stocks at their picks and now down 25% on the whole portfolio...ouch...

I am strongly considering just cutting my losses with SILC and moving on.  Thoughts?  David do you plan on holding this? 

Weekly MACD Bearish Cross, SILC is going for the support area possibly @ $16 or at $12 area.

-- price is now below 9sma weekly chart

Quote from: Terliso on June 12, 2007, 11:22:23 AM
Weekly MACD Bearish Cross, SILC is going for the support area possibly @ $16 or at $12 area.

-- price is now below 9sma weekly chart

Based on David's original decision to sell his position at 18.92, the action of the last week, your technical analysis, overall market correcting, and my gut feeling, I have decided to cut my losses in this stock an  I am out at $18.76.  I am a newbie in the stock market and I don't have the stomach to watch this drop anyone.   Like others I believe in this company and will look to re-enter at a lower price.  Good luck to everyone who decides to hold this  (I wish I could).

Got stopped Out at $19.01

Hi David,

I hope that you are having a terrific day. Would you please take a moment to update your recommendation for SILC for the board members?

I am confused about whether we should Hold or Sell SILC at this point - now that the stock looks like it will close below $18.90?

Also David, do you think that SILC might drop significantly, possibly to the $10-12 range now that major support around $19 has been broken?

Thanks as always, and keep up your great work!

Bourbon   

Hi Bourbon, I hope you're doing well too.

The instruction is always the one you receive with your daily newsletter. I've made up my mind to hold SILC whatever happens over the latest update, because I believe in the long term fundamentals of the company and knew the market would try everything to shake me out of my long term position.

I believe this course of action is the best to ensure a superior long term performance.

However, each individual is free to do what he wants to do, of course.

I'll keep holding SILC for the long term, expecting to take profits at $50 plus 2 years from now. Good luck