3SOF

All chinese game stocks up big  today, GIGM down I wonder why???

Quote from: yukiii on May 31, 2007, 02:26:35 PM
All chinese game stocks up big  today, GIGM down I wonder why???

Irrelevant short term noise. If you're going to sell a stock because the stock is down in one day while other stocks from the same geographic region and sector are up, my guess is you won't hold any stock more than three days. Or else, you choose to focus your attention in that type of information for GIGM's specific case in this specific time, but not in other similar situations.

My take is GIGM went down today because it went up 5% two days ago and needs to consolidate that move. But, what the stock does today, tomorrow, or even this week isn't a factor to where it will close 2007, 2008 or 2009. Other factors, different from the stock price, determine that. Things like dilution, revenues, net profit margin and earnings multiple.

My long term valuation model considers these factors and says GIGM will probably be a $83 or so stock in late 2009, so I'll keep on holding the stock.

GIGM has been trading in this long term ascending channel. Do you think it could trend down over the midium term to bounce off the lower support, say around $13, before the next bull leg up?

GIGM has strong support at $14.32. I like GIGM just don't think it will go up short term, like I said before it will stay in the 14 teens till we here some good news.

I would buy here or lower for the long term, not much downside here.

Quote from: yukiii on June 01, 2007, 03:14:41 PM
GIGM has strong support at $14.32. I like GIGM just don't think it will go up short term, like I said before it will stay in the 14 teens till we here some good news.

I would buy here or lower for the long term, not much downside here.

Just curious, how do you see strong support @$14.32? I can see support about 13.72 to 13.79, but not really at 14.32. Am I missing something? You must have done a 360 and bought. Amongst many other things, some of your posts helped convince me to sell. Did I sell to you?

I sold GIGM along with everything else Chinese and then some.. GL.

Just watching as i said, will wait till next earnings to come out.
Support and resistance  in April and May was $14.32 next support is $13.28

Sold SILC today, Only 3SOF stocks i have left are TBSI, NVTL and SNDA.
Took profits todays in most of my other stocks, still holding EGO, PZZ and WPCS.
Went back into Gold and Oil again and Silver again and SKK hedge alsokeeping my Germany and Japan funds.

June 7th and next few weeks are usually down and sideways, good time for vacation.
Eyes will be on interest rates going up.
Read market update
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9050.msg99782#new

I like most of 3SOF picks right now for the long-term hold... look at these trends, pretty good stuff eh.

SILC, GIGM,  ALDN, JACK, NVTL

I'm not sure what GIGM will do over the short term. It may go down to test the ascending support at $14.05 or even the horizontal support at $13.79. Or it may go up to close the gap opened between $15.34 and $15.77 and challenge the recent seven year high at $16.42.

You may choose to look at the glass half empty or half full.

My take is it doesn't matter which way you choose to look, or if you're right or wrong, because you shouldn't be looking at those short term issues to begin with. Not if you wish to achieve an outstanding long term performance.

Next quarter or seasonality doesn't matter either. What matters is where do you see GIGM's business a few years from now, and if the price you're paying is below what it should be, given your vision.

The way I see it, GIGM won't increase its share count by more than 3% a year, it will grow revenues by at least 50% per year, it will enjoy a fat net profit margin of 40% and it will trade at an earnings multiple of 37.

If my expectation and reality meet, GIGM will be an $83.9 stock in 2009, delivering a 79% average annual return on my investment.

I would like to take the discussion on this thread to whether my estimates are plausible or not. But of course, write about whatever you feel like

I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.   

Some people sold GIGM at today's open because Shangai's stock exchange index went down 8% overnight. But there's no correlation between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy. Moreover GIGM's revenues come mostly from Europe. It is interesting how this Taiwan based company has a strong foot in Europe, but not in the US.

It is a Taiwan based multinational, like Acer.

GIGM is the second most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio, I'll keep holding it for the long term.

Hi, I've received an e-mail from GIGM's investor relations:

«Hi David:

We were stating that we expect growth in Q2 2007, but that we expect the percentage of that growth will be lower than the growth between 4Q 2006 and 1Q 2007. In other words we were speaking about Q-on-Q growth.

Thanks for your email and your support.

Best regards,
Brad»

So, there will be sequential growth from Q1 2007. In Q1 2007 GIGM had revenue of $36.1M and fully diluted Non-GAAP EPS of $0.14.

In Q2 2006, GIGM had revenue of $21 M (it will be more than $36.1 M in Q2 2007) and Non-GAAP EPS of 7 cents (it will be more than $0.14 in Q2 2007).

Therefore the comparison will be favorable, even if sequential growth is minimal. But as nicknite20 said, it can be anything between 1% and 49% (for the gaming software unit).

I'll keep holding GIGM.

Everything seems on track with GIGM, I believe the stock will be at new highs soon. I'll keep holding GIGM.

Yahoo Finance has the following at GIGM's summary:



Reuters says the company sees lower Q2 sequential revenue. Not true. What they said was that they see revenues for a specific unit to grow less on a sequential basis. Well, growth in Q1 2007 from Q4 2006 for that unit was 50%, so less growth can still be an enormous QoQ figure.

There are many interesting issues at the 1st quarter conference call, today let me highlight the following one:



All companies in the online gaming space want to monetize a Mahjong online game, but GIGM seems to be very close to it. Mahjong is a huge game for Asians, they're always playing it, even my brother, who lived in Macao for 6 months and now has a Chinese girlfriend here in Portugal plays it regularly.

nicknite20 talked about $4 Mahjong, I wonder where he get that pricing information. nicknite20, do you have a link or copy/paste for this info? Thanks a lot!

Another important issue is how margin was reduced in Q1 2007 because of the heavy promotion for Hellgate: London:



I still need to study what's GIGM share of this highly anticipated game, but a clue is the game's website for the Asian region: http://hellgate.iahgames.com/

At the bottom there's the Infocomm Asia holdings logo, where GIGM is the majority shareholder with 30% equity interest:



Plenty of reasons to keep holding GIGM with strong hands, clearly, the best is yet to come.

David,
I wasnt referring to 4$ Mahjong..but real money mahjong in generla (Mahjong 4(for) $)
Sorry abt the confusion.
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on June 10, 2007, 11:26:00 PM
David,
I wasnt referring to 4$ Mahjong..but real money mahjong in generla (Mahjong 4(for) $)
Sorry abt the confusion.
Nick

Ah, ok, here in Europe we don't usually use numbers for letters, except U2

GIGM is one of the most interesting companies, but today I've spent a lot of time with MSI's update, so let me just say that I'll keep holding GIGM.

For those that are still out of this stock, this is the perfect time for going in, it's on the lower part of the ascending tunnel...next step, over 16$