3SOF

Quote from: pinoleropuro on June 08, 2007, 07:26:52 PM
I hope you're right!
I got in at 21.21 up 7% just today.

She is looking so pretty 

Yeah it started going up when the analyst on CNBC said not to buy shipping stocks. DSX went up 3% today.

Hi Michael, nice to see you

A slowdown in the US economy is the least of my fears, because, it already happened. The market is looking ahead and sees strong growth, because America, in the end, still is the most competitive economy in the World and will benefit the most from globalization. Everybody wins, but US businesses win the most from a larger global economy.

As for Shipping and Transport stocks, indeed, they trade at a below average valuation, just 14.2 times earnings. Well, but that's what I have in my valuation model for TBSI, and it still says the stock is worth a lot more than current prices.

What is happening with TBSI is company specific, not sector and even less so macro. Net profit margin is expanding, from 15.4% (2006 net profit margin), to 30% plus (it was 20.3% in Q1 2007), coming back in line with other shipping companies net profit margin.

I don't like TBSI because I think shipping stocks are cheap. I like TBSI because inside the group, the stock is the most attractive, and I expect it to rise even if the sector goes down. In fact, over the past 3 months, the DJ US marine transportation index was up just 9.6% and TBSI was up 125%, outperforming its sector by 12 fold:



I'll keep on holding TBSI.

TBSI is still in the laundering machine, making people with weak hands leave the stock. Perhaps it will wait for the 50 days SMA before pushing decisively higher. I'll keep holding TBSI.

stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

I hope you got back on track quickly yukiii. You know TBSI is fundamentally attractive and the general market is bullish. Good luck

yeah I got back in on this one at $20.45. Mostly in large caps and short SKK
Rising rates not to good for small caps. Stopped out of SILC and PAL

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Next support 1493 on the S&P. 10 year is 5.26 now

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 03:13:59 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Next support 1493 on the S&P. 10 year is 5.26 now

I know where the 10 year bond yield is. Everybody knows that. Nothing unexpected. Bear Markets don't start when everybody sees what the problem is. But there's no problem, 5.25% on the 10 year yield is still low and well supported by the global economy, in my view.

Support for the SPY at $149.42, given by the 50 days SMA.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 03:53:47 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 03:13:59 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Next support 1493 on the S&P. 10 year is 5.26 now

I know where the 10 year bond yield is. Everybody knows that. Nothing unexpected. Bear Markets don't start when everybody sees what the problem is. But there's no problem, 5.25% on the 10 year yield is still low and well supported by the global economy, in my view.

Support for the SPY at $149.42, given by the 50 days SMA.

Closed at support, no bear market but a good excuse for a correction in June. Good buying opportunity
coming up in global growth plays large caps and Mid cap growth stories. Get ready to follow the trend stocks for the next move up.

IMPERIAL OIL LTD
LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC.   
NUCOR CORP
PETRO-CANADA CAD   
DANAHER CORP.
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD.
MORGAN STANLEY
STARBUCKS CORP.
AFLAC INC
COACH INC
APPLE
GOOGLE

David a suggestion for new people to 3SOF why not put a BUY or HOLD next to exit point on the main page. I think there will be a lot of good buying opps ahead.

Hmmm, Michael had a nice post here, where is it?

QuoteDavid a suggestion for new people to 3SOF why not put a BUY or HOLD next to exit point on the main page. I think there will be a lot of good buying opps ahead.

If I'm holding the stock I definitely consider it a buy, or else I wouldn't be holding it. If not good enough to buy, not good enough to hold in my view.

As for TBSI, I guess technicians would consider the current consolidation phase "normal", even though fundamentals are very attractive, just by the simple fact that the stock was up 150% in 2007. Maybe TBSI will even touch the 50 days SMA, that's going to be a serious drawdown for the Main Portfolio.

As I've been studying more stocks I see that almost always there are corrections to the 50 days SMA in all powerful bull running stocks, so, as a lesson for the future, indeed, probably I should be more careful and try to pick shares at a technical support as the 50 days SMA, even when I think fundamentals are extremely attractive. That's because it is boring to be holding the stock while it corrects, it makes people uncomfortable.

But, nobody knows where TBSI and the 50 days SMA will meet. The stock can either go down in a sharp sell off followed by an equally sharp reversal or else stay within the current trading range as it waits for the moving average to catch up with price.

Either way, TBSI goes higher over the medium/long term. The stock is trading at 6.4 times 2008 estimated earnings and growing nicely. Can't be. I'll keep holding TBSI. 

David, I always try to load up when stocks correct to the 50 or 200 ma.
and ride them back up to overbought and sell. Many small caps will give up all there gains, easier to roll them over to another company at there 50 or 200 ma. Unless you get this point you will keep having the same problem. Not to pick on you but 3SOF went from 14% to 21& back to 13% the past week.
YTD 33% down to $13%. If you follow my strategy  you would probable be still at around 25%.

Yes, I lost some this week which I hate, a little over 1%. But I still have most of my gains for the year.
Not 150% like some claim here, but just up 29% for the year. Back when I first started investing you could hold stocks for years and forget about them, not anymore. When the portfolio does go back up remember rotate out to another stock or a index. I think everyone would sleep better that way.

Having your whole portfolio correct all at one time from there highs is bad for the faint herarted.

When I was your age I turned $60,000 into 2 million in 3 months, then lost most of it in a week. lesson learned. Thats another story...

By the way I like most of your picks now except NTES, JAKK, and TZOO maybe you can convince me on those 3. Waiting for a good time to jump back in.  Everyone is scared that interest rates are going up - and they are.

Most do not realize it is not the rate that matters but the ease of getting money. The Fed
is still pushing cash into the system. When they start to tighten (and with their stupidity
of the past you know they will) that is when the market will go down and not come
back.

Look for 10-year Treasury approaching a yield of 5.5%,  that's where yields will settle in the coming months."

Keep in mind the last time the Yield on the 10 Year Note rose above 5% was in the Spring of 2006 which was followed by a 1000 point drop in the Dow.  Thus it will be interesting to see if we will now see another multi week pullback develop in the coming weeks. Dow 13200, S&P 500 1487  support  to watch.

QuoteDavid, I always try to load up when stocks correct to the 50 or 200 ma.
and ride them back up to overbought and sell. Many small caps will give up all there gains, easier to roll them over to another company at there 50 or 200 ma. Unless you get this point you will keep having the same problem.

I don't think my strategy has a problem.

QuoteNot to pick on you but 3SOF went from 14% to 21& back to 13% the past week.
YTD 33% down to $13%. If you follow my strategy  you would probable be still at around 25%.

At the maximum the Main Portfolio was up 25% in 2007 (33% didn't happen). Now it is up 15.3%. I wouldn't follow your strategy, you just keep flipping stocks and have weak hands (example: your selling of TBSI and PAL, even though you thought TBSI was one of the most attractive stocks you've ever seen). Moreover you walk away and say nothing when your stocks go south. That's the hardest part of making this service, to show up and write, even when things go very bad, but it is also one of the most valuable parts of the service, in my view.

QuoteYes, I lost some this week which I hate, a little over 1%. But I still have most of my gains for the year. Not 150% like some claim here, but just up 29% for the year. Back when I first started investing you could hold stocks for years and forget about them, not anymore. When the portfolio does go back up remember rotate out to another stock or a index. I think everyone would sleep better that way.

Good for you yukiii. 29% before July is an awesome return, congrats. I wish you had that type of return over your entire career, you would be in the Forbes top 100 list for sure

QuoteBack when I first started investing you could hold stocks for years and forget about them, not anymore. When the portfolio does go back up remember rotate out to another stock or a index. I think everyone would sleep better that way.

Nah, they wouldn't. Nobody could follow a service that would keep selling stocks and buying others, with a short term perspective. Also I don't think that is a good strategy. Sure, sometimes you get very high returns, but not 30% CAGR over the long term.

QuoteHaving your whole portfolio correct all at one time from there highs is bad for the faint herarted.

I've done what you do for years, and it is a lot more stressful in my view. Always thinking: "should I take profits now, should I sell XYZ and buy ABC instead? Should I cut losses here and buy another?" The endless decisions make you think stock market all the time, not really enjoying life.

QuoteWhen I was your age I turned $60,000 into 2 million in 3 months, then lost most of it in a week. lesson learned. Thats another story...

That's a very cool story yukiii, why don't you disclose some more? We could all learn from it. I have a couple of those too, but smaller. At age 25 I run up a $2,500 futures account to $80,000. Bought a Porsche. Inversely, when my first son was born, I was at my, how do you say it, my wife's parents house and felt bored. I sold 3 DAX futures contracts by the close. Next morning I lost half of my account. In a week I lost it all. hahaha, it makes me laugh now, but it took me more than a year to recover.

QuoteBy the way I like most of your picks now except NTES, JAKK, and TZOO maybe you can convince me on those 3.

NTES and JAKK are just great value stocks, if you read those stock's threads, I believe you'll see the bear's motives are unwarranted. TZOO is more complicated, my hands aren't as strong there.

QuoteWaiting for a good time to jump back in.  Everyone is scared that interest rates are going up - and they are.

Yeah, they're scared, that's why it is a good time to buy the dip. Nobody is surprised interest rates are going up, except maybe people that were holding bonds, like Michael for example. I guess Michael got out of his bonds and is looking to buy stocks now (are you Michael? That would be great, having your insights on stocks again ). That money coming out of bonds needs to find a place, and it will find it in the stock market in my view.

QuoteMost do not realize it is not the rate that matters but the ease of getting money. The Fed is still pushing cash into the system. When they start to tighten (and with their stupidity
of the past you know they will) that is when the market will go down and not come
back.

Look for 10-year Treasury approaching a yield of 5.5%,  that's where yields will settle in the coming months."

Yes, I agree. But the most important trend going on now is globalization. It's a brand new World, different from all times in history. The only similar (but much smaller) situation was the 1500-1600 in Europe. We're living through one of the most fantastic periods for long term investing in the stock markets around the world in my view. This bull market has the potential to be even bigger than the 1982-2000 bull market.

QuoteKeep in mind the last time the Yield on the 10 Year Note rose above 5% was in the Spring of 2006 which was followed by a 1000 point drop in the Dow.  Thus it will be interesting to see if we will now see another multi week pullback develop in the coming weeks. Dow 13200, S&P 500 1487  support  to watch.

Nah, give it a couple of weeks and we'll be at new all time highs again, climbing a wall of worry. This bull market won't end without a big speculative wave at its end. It's always the same.

Hey, nice talking yukiii. Thanks for sharing your experiences.

As for TBSI, the stock rose 6.63% today. It's a wild horse that doesn't seem willing to go down to kiss the 50 days SMA. Waiting for it to catch up instead. Longer term there's only one way: up! Keep your hands strong on this one fellas.

Yeah, I am trying to find a balance, so I don't trade to much and not hold to many stocks.
For me it works to hold around five companies long term and trade the closed end funds. Like today
when oil started going up it was to late to buy any of the etf's or a single energy stock, so I bought
KYE a closed end energy fund. They always have a delayed reaction to news, because the big boys don't trade them, later it went up 2%. You can do that with oil and real state.  Or if the market is up 50 points
just check and see which closed end fund is down or not up much and load up. You just have to know what they are holding. I like trading ZF, DSF and ETG.

I bought AUO today you might want to take a look.

Sorry about the 33% I though you were up that much at one time.

The next two days are jampacked with excitement as the PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday should be huge market movers in one direction or the other. Then you have options expiration on Friday which may muddy the picture a bit and when coupled with a still oversold bond market, my guess is more short term confusion and less clarity. Finally, in the background you have the Shanghai market which should be right at the end of its sucker's rally. It traded as high as 4193 last night and may or may not push a bit higher but the bottom line is that if this bubble has truly burst we should start to see it decline extremely soon.

QuoteI bought AUO today you might want to take a look.

It looks nice from a technical standpoint, $13 B market cap, good luck

QuoteThe next two days are jampacked with excitement as the PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday should be huge market movers in one direction or the other. Then you have options expiration on Friday which may muddy the picture a bit and when coupled with a still oversold bond market, my guess is more short term confusion and less clarity.

Yeah, those reports remember me about my time in the futures markets. If I considered those reports for buying or selling stocks I would probably turnover the whole portfolio more than once a month, like you do. I'm not interested and not excited at all about those macro reports, I want to ignore macro developments and focus on a micro, business by business oriented strategy.

QuoteFinally, in the background you have the Shanghai market which should be right at the end of its sucker's rally. It traded as high as 4193 last night and may or may not push a bit higher but the bottom line is that if this bubble has truly burst we should start to see it decline extremely soon.

No stock market bubble in China. That bull market is about one year old. If we think of Japan's history, for example, the stock market was already very overvalued (by western slow growth standards) in the 1970's ... it still took more than 10 years for it to collapse. Greenspan and others say the Shangai Stock Exchange stocks are overvalued because they trade at 36 times earnings, while the US trades at 18 times earnings. But, if we consider the growth differential, with the US GDP growing 2% a year and China's GDP growing 10% a year, we see the valuation differences are warranted. Just a few macro long term thoughts ...

Coming back to TBSI, a new website was launched, for covering shipping stocks: Capital Link Shipping. But even cooler is TBSI's website.

Nothing changed from a technical or fundamental standpoint. I'll keep holding the stock.