3SOF

QuoteYes David

it says DATE REGISTERED: 6/18/2007  ...

Thisnew came out on friday after market closed

Thanks Garoh.

Everybody is selling SILC because everybody is selling SILC. First earnings were a bit below what could be expected from the historical growth rate. Second a significant private placement. Then insiders sold shares. Then an institutional sold 663,000 shares. And now this insider selling 100,000 more.

People looking at this can only press the sell button. I've seen a 100% profit turn into a 38% profit

My fault and responsibility, of course. I can't and I won't blame the market for this, I was the one that choose this "long term investment strategy path".

And what about that 70% drawdown, when SILC came off from $12 to below $4? That was really something, I was afraid something like that could happen, but wanted my hands to be strong.

It is pretty clear now that most people expect Q2 2007 to be weak, as Q2 2006 was. There are just 5 days for the quarter to be over ... I should have been more alert to that "giant" word on the press release.

I have two options now:

1) Consider that fundamentals are still on track and that the company will make at least $0.88 EPS in 2007 (that would mean no growth from the $0.22 it achieved in Q1 2007). Forward EPS multiple is 19.8, below the industry average of 27. But of course, there are risks. The major risk is if server makers think they should make in house products similar to SILC's, instead of buying them. SILC suffered from a similar trend in the past.

2) Take my 38% or so profit, learn my lesson and move on. The lesson being "if you see that a stock will go down, even if that seems to be for temporary reasons, take your profit. Re-valuate later".

If I were alone, managing my own diversified portfolio, not thinking of everything I said and wrote in the past, what would I do now? If I didn't have an ego, what would I do now?

I would kneel down in respect for the market and take my 38% or so profit.

Unfortunately that's the trading plan. I say unfortunately because I really wished things to turn out differently, so I could make a point about investment strategies. But the market has been ruthless every time I try to make a point.

Too bad 

I expected this one to stop at 17.70 two weeks ago but today before the market open I so a very bad sign which showed a 17.55 target BUT didn't expect this drop 

I saw these movements many time especially with Israeli company !!

I see ugly chart on both weekly and daily ....we could see a temprorily rebound after the stock is oversold now ....

David which option would you choose ?

pff, why do I always choose the wrong ones, originally bought SILC around 21$ and also CIMT around 3.65$ 
I'm starting to believe that this fundamental strategy is not my cup of tea ...

QuoteDavid which option would you choose ?

It's pretty clear that he is going to take his 38% and more on.

Quote from: Se7en on June 25, 2007, 05:14:55 PM
pff, why do I always choose the wrong ones, originally bought SILC around 21$ and also CIMT around 3.65$ 
I'm starting to believe that this funda

I did the same... bought SILC around 21.  I don't think you have to worry about CIMT though. 

Quote from: Se7en on June 25, 2007, 05:14:55 PM
pff, why do I always choose the wrong ones, originally bought SILC around 21$ and also CIMT around 3.65$ 
I'm starting to believe that this fundamental strategy is not my cup of tea ...

Anyone that bought the "fire" portfolio within the last couple months or so would be red all around.  Bleh, such is the market.

I bought SILC over $21!

Will the stock rebound a little in the future? Maybe I will hold to see if it will go up a little, to soften the loss?

Let's hope that their 2nd new design win this quarter comes quick ... 

Hey Guys,
Sounds like you may hold for a little while?
yukiii will let go before we do, because he got in lower.

this thing looks like it is headed back to $12 and relatively quick.   

Quote from: DragonAMG on June 25, 2007, 08:10:51 PM
this thing looks like it is headed back to $12 and relatively quick.   

Quote from: Se7en on June 25, 2007, 05:14:55 PM
pff, why do I always choose the wrong ones, originally bought SILC around 21$ and also CIMT around 3.65$ 
I'm starting to believe that this fundamental strategy is not my cup of tea ...

a stock is just good when it goes up...even when fundamentals are good. So fundamentals with strict technical use..is the key...i enter and have always a mental stop....and then i sell.

I rebought at $ 21,80  After selling at $ 22,77

Previous win became smaller now by 20%, big bummer. It's all in the game. Technical signs were there, long term vision was different.

Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on June 26, 2007, 06:39:50 AM
I rebought at $ 21,80  After selling at $ 22,77

Previous win became smaller now by 20%, big bummer. It's all in the game. Technical signs were there, long term vision was different.

Amarens

yes never fall in love with a stock....in this thread was much time wasted about the company....group dynamic that can be dangerous....keep it simple less talk acting more strict...and save time...sell and move to the next one. If it would be really long term investments then we dont need to analyse the chart every second day or ? thats a bit  the strange thing to me...

Quote from: ket1390 on June 06, 2007, 11:18:02 AM

Quote from: yukiii on June 06, 2007, 11:11:42 AM
Bought somemore here 20.45

why buying more? people should never average down what if we see 19 tomorrow?and and and....if we close under the MA50 this could be a good short.....especially now if a possible corrections starts....interests concerning...i will short it under 20 with target of 12

not always the majority wins! i am sticking to my plans

QuoteIf it would be really long term investments then we dont need to analyse the chart every second day or ? thats a bit  the strange thing to me...

The website needs new content everyday, and when there's nothing new to say on the fundamental side, I write about the chart. What else?

Let me try to explain SILC's selling decision better, or differently.

If one goes back on this thread, and other threads where we've talked about SILC, at some point I said SILC could be a 10 bagger. But after studying some more, I said it could be a 2 to 3 bagger, but hardly a 10 bagger, because it was roughly a one product company, a product that could become obsolete.

SILC gave 1 bag to the people that bought around $12, and then started trading sideways. Several negative fundamental developments were out, but the stock held roughly between $19 and $24, right? buddjas1 and others wrote that around $19 we would be at rock bottom prices, and I agreed, that's why I took my stop out, because I was afraid I could be shaken out not by a decisive sell signal, but because of whipsawed market action.

But yesterday the market proved the $18.5 - $19.5 bulls wrong.

I guess the market knows something, either some key costumers will start producing their server connection needs in house, or else sales this quarter will disappoint and the company will post a slim profit, like it happened in Q2 2006. The stock started falling in April and the bad news was out only in August. Between the two months there was a 70% fall.

I don't know how it feels like having a 100% profit and watch it go away completely and I don't want to find out.

For you people that bought at $21, may I remind you that your entry point shouldn't be a factor in your trading decisions, because the market simply doesn't care, it doesn't even know. We're talking about a 20% loss which for a diversified portfolio shouldn't cause much damage to the overall portfolio performance. For example, the Main Portfolio took 20 losses of more than 20% and that didn't prevent it from being up 297% since inception. In fact, I believe that helped because most of those stocks kept going down.

Anyway, do as you wish. For my part I wish I had sold SILC at that gap up after Q1 results, because the stock was about to go down. I didn't think it would go down this much though, but since then things changed to the worse. But what I could have done doesn't count, it's all perfect trades at the "if" section. What matters are the facts.

And the fact is I'm about to take a 38% profit, which is a lot less than I expected, but not bad. I need to improve on managing expectations.

Just a few words for realcoolhead: "I hope you understand this decision, the market clearly proved me wrong and there are significant risks. As I'll keep working to find attractive picks, I expect the Main to deliver 30%-40% return this year, which is in line with our long term goals. Thanks for your support!"

Thanks for your support too, good luck