3SOF

Manugistics Group Incorporated (MANU). The Group's principal activities are to design, develop, market, license, support and implement demand and supply chain management software.

Since its IPO in 1993 MANU has traded like this:



Just notice from this chart that MANU normally comes to this low level before it takes a bull run.

On the next chart, one of medium term, we can see that the last bulls must have left MANU when it broke to all time lows...



... but investors were trapped on this one! After making new lows MANU recovered back above its previous low, showing sellers of the last few sessions were wrong about selling.

On the short term we have a powerful white marubozu (MANU climbed 22% yesterday) with big volume. So I will be a buyer at today's opening:



I'm changing my strategy a little bit, so I'm not giving an exit trading plan, I will keep monitoring the stock to know when to sell. I'll get a bit more active because I don't want to be holding more than 15 stocks at the same time.

I'll explain this change better in a while. Don't forget to register on this message board to receive our free daily newsletter about the 3 stocks on fire.

Meantime, feel free to comment on this analysis and to suggest any stock picks to figure on our 3stocksonfire list for tomorrow! Thank you !

David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org

Selling the losers, keeping the winners. MANU was on my portfolio for more than 15 days and it didn't perform. I dump it.

I'm still holding on to it.  It has been trading sideways for a while.  If we can hold up in the market, I think it may have a chance.  I should have sold when it touched above $2, but that's life.

... I hope it holds. Do you still have it Saffey?

Good luck !

I am still holding.  Nice line drawn.  There's some accumulation goig on with the stock. 

I hope it can pull out of the gate this week.

Quote from: saffeysite1 on May 29, 2005, 07:18:36 PM
I am still holding.  Nice line drawn.  There's some accumulation goig on with the stock. 

I hope it can pull out of the gate this week.

Saffeysite was right  Do you still hold it saffey?

MANU has an intering chart at this moment, though it has low volume ...

I got tired of holding  and sold a couple of weeks ago.   Hate holding up money for such a long time.

Will put it back on my radar.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 14, 2005, 11:05:22 AM
MANU has an intering chart at this moment, though it has low volume ...

Yes, it is interesting, David.   

This Symmetrical Triangle had EIGHT hits to the top of the pattern before it broke out on July 29.  Target: 2.60 is IN PLAY.  The top of the pattern was 2.54, so Target: 2.54 - 2.60.

Volume wasn't great, as you say, but not bad.

Now MANU is back for a re-test of your trendline (green).  A low-risk trade is to use Friday's high of 2.10 as the buy pivot, so buy a print of 2.11.  If the 2.54 target is MADE, that's a profit of 20.4%.

For a stop, use a close below Friday's low of 2.03, or whatever low is made today or tomorrow prior to getting the buy signal with a print of 2.11.  Risk is about 4% (depending on what the low is).

Risk/Reward ratio: 1:5

MANU printed 2.01 this morning, below Friday's 2.03 low.  I bought it at 2.06, when it came back to unchanged.  Stop is a close below 2.01.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 15, 2005, 10:08:31 AM
MANU printed 2.01 this morning, below Friday's 2.03 low.  I bought it at 2.06, when it came back to unchanged.  Stop is a close below 2.01.

MANU currently is at 2.00, down $0.01, and a penny below my stop if it closes here.

Since my stop was based on wanting to keep this a low-risk trade, not on any serious trendline violation, I'm going to hold the stock.   I like the chart and the fact that MANU is holding up well wtih the market tanking (Dow currently is down 119 points).  I'm going to give the trade a chance.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 15, 2005, 10:08:31 AM
I bought it at 2.06

Sold MANU today for 2.15.  Gain: 4.4%.

I changed my strategy on this one after I bought it two months ago.  Decided to keep it for a long-term hold.  It's had a mini-breakout today and could go higher here, but I don't like the market right now, so I cashed it in.  I'd rather book the profit than risk watching it go down if the market tanks here.  I'll look at buying it back at a lower price, if I can.

I posted in the AAPL folder of the Stock Picks Board that the NASDAQ is struggling, trying to get through DOUBLE resistance here at 2074, which is the bottom of the broken channel, and the 200 DMA, so I'm reining it in a bit.

Here's the chart:

No trading under this symbol...