3SOF

I think David did a great job with this site and with suggestions.
he is totally right when he says that there are other newsletters (like Fool) that plugs 100 recommendations and say that "they beat the market".

This site plugs two portfolio: 15 stocks or 3 stocks.
It's a good way to manage small or larger amount of capital you retain.
It's simple and easy to follow.

Regarding performance: stock markets are volatile, unpredictable.
David has not the magic wand in his hands, he only suggests what he feels it's the best right now.

So, go on with your great job and enjoy your 3 days off.

Cheers from Italy,

Tera

yukii
you seem to have some suggestions for short term trading why not start your own thread under personal threads. I am sure you'll have a good number of people at least watching your picks.
When you do start your own thread do it just like you've recommended to do it before. you know, have it with buying 100 shares of XXX today planned sale at or around XX.XX tomorrow or by the end of the week. Also watching XXX and so on.

Wrangler has his own thread under public folders. Something like that is what I am talking about.
Just a thought.

Quote from: pinoleropuro on June 29, 2007, 07:13:25 AM
yukii
you seem to have some suggestions for short term trading why not start your own thread under personal threads. I am sure you'll have a good number of people at least watching your picks.
When you do start your own thread do it just like you've recommended to do it before. you know, have it with buying 100 shares of XXX today planned sale at or around XX.XX tomorrow or by the end of the week. Also watching XXX and so on.

Wrangler has his own thread under public folders. Something like that is what I am talking about.
Just a thought.

Hi Pinoleropuro
Thanks  for your suggestion
The reason I keep commenting on Davids picks is because I think David should concentrate on short term picks like he did before and was successfull. Micro cap are better suited for that. Since he changed his strategry the portfolio has suffered and just goes up and down with the market. They will not work out long term and david sells when they go down anyways. When he was doing short term trading I never used make any comments, just trade and be happy.
You don't think 3sof  made it to $300% doing long term trading I don't think so.
My portfolio is mostly long term mid cap and large caps and I trade microcaps. I think that would be
a better way to do a log term portfolio. I know this is not my website and David can do what ever he wants. Just though I could improve the site, I know there are alot of new people that do not have a lot of experience trading and being told to invest in 15 micro caps  with high beta with fantasy target
prices is just asking for trouble. I was trying to get David to see he is wrong and he should not be testing this out on his subscribers. The portfolio has not done much on anything since he started this new approach. 20 to 14 - 18 - 15 it will keep bouncing around that is the nature of this portfolio, if you don't sell and take your profits they will always correct and the micro caps correct the most, so they are not suited for this type of plan. You can have 2 micro caps in your long term portfolio but you need anchors to keep your profits. like APPLE or GOOGLE or even and larger small cap like TWIN, or LMIA. I don't do all these comments for myself as I just do my own thing anyways but I try to help
you guys out because I see you getting in trouble putting all your savings in all these micro caps.

Some news

The Federal Reserve's statement yesterday, following the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, got things mostly right.

The statement's characterization of the economy and inflation — if you know how to read their coded language — was accurate and insightful. The economy is expanding, and inflation is a threat.

They forgot one important thing. And it's a biggie.

They forgot to raise interest rates.

But they'll get around to that eventually. It probably won't happen till the end of this year, but it will happen.

Until it does, all systems are go for the stock market.
Through the end of the year, it's going to be great for stocks. With no contagion from subprime, and the Fed on the sidelines, there's nothing to stop the economy from growing a lot faster than "moderately," which means that corporate earnings are going to keep growing, too. So abstracting from the occasional correction here and there, stock prices should pretty much keep making new all-time highs through the end of the year.

Thats all folks have a good weekend!!!!!!

hi,
yukki makes some very good points.
for those who pay $50 per month david's strategies have been very erratic for a long time so if you are trying to follow him to the letter i can imagine it would be very frustrating  and difficult to do .  (take a look at stocktiger.com for simplicity in trading)
but it is a subscription site and if you are paying you are entitled to question and critize as you see fit.
personally i think this should return to a free site.
it was much better and much more active with good tech as well as fundamental traders .
jmo,
max

Quoteyukki makes some very good points.

No he doesn't. In 2006 the Main Portfolio returned 20% for the whole year. In 2007, with half of the year to go, it is up 18.34%. That gives 40% annualized return.

If I have a 30% average annual return for the next 30 years I'll be the richest man in the world.

What yukiii says is to try to have a higher return, by trading more. That's why his 40 years in the market are gone, and he's still short term playing the markets, not really going anywhere for decades.

QuoteThe reason I keep commenting on Davids picks is because I think David should concentrate on short term picks like he did before and was successfull. Micro cap are better suited for that. Since he changed his strategry the portfolio has suffered and just goes up and down with the market. They will not work out long term and david sells when they go down anyways. When he was doing short term trading I never used make any comments, just trade and be happy.
You don't think 3sof  made it to $300% doing long term trading I don't think so.
My portfolio is mostly long term mid cap and large caps and I trade microcaps. I think that would be
a better way to do a log term portfolio. I know this is not my website and David can do what ever he wants. Just though I could improve the site, I know there are alot of new people that do not have a lot of experience trading and being told to invest in 15 micro caps  with high beta with fantasy target
prices is just asking for trouble. I was trying to get David to see he is wrong and he should not be testing this out on his subscribers. The portfolio has not done much on anything since he started this new approach. 20 to 14 - 18 - 15 it will keep bouncing around that is the nature of this portfolio, if you don't sell and take your profits they will always correct and the micro caps correct the most, so they are not suited for this type of plan. You can have 2 micro caps in your long term portfolio but you need anchors to keep your profits. like APPLE or GOOGLE or even and larger small cap like TWIN, or LMIA. I don't do all these comments for myself as I just do my own thing anyways but I try to help
you guys out because I see you getting in trouble putting all your savings in all these micro caps.

What makes you think you know more than I do about the stock market or trading strategies? Who are you to tell me what to do or how to trade?

I own small caps because there are more inefficiencies there, in terms of their valuation when compared to the fundamentals. Moreover, it is a lot easier for a small company to grow 50% or more a year than for a $50 B or more company. To achieve a 30% or more average annual return I need stocks with high growth potential trading at low valuation, not big elephants that are already huge in size and can't grow more than 10 or 15%.

But, if you believe you know it all, that your strategy is the best, that I don't know what I'm doing, then why do you subscribe the 3 SOF Premium service? To disturb my work?

I'm not going to allow you to do that anymore.

Quotefor those who pay $50 per month david's strategies have been very erratic for a long time so if you are trying to follow him to the letter i can imagine it would be very frustrating  and difficult to do . (take a look at stocktiger.com for simplicity in trading) .
but it is a subscription site and if you are paying you are entitled to question and critize as you see fit.

What? Very erratic? I've traded less and the portfolio is up 18.34% this year. I justify every trade, not just when I recommend buying or selling, but all the days in between. But of course, I make mistakes like everybody else. Like everybody else, I don't know everything, in fact, the more I know, the more I feel the need to keep working hard, because there's still so much to learn.

But ask realcoolhead, for example, if it was hard for him to follow my recommendations and how much he's made out of them. And how much he made investing in the mutual funds he invests (in % terms, of course) or in all the other services he subscribed in the past.

Moreover it is extremely rude to come here and invite people to another website. No you're not entitled to criticize. If you don't like the service, just leave.

Quotepersonally i think this should return to a free site.
it was much better and much more active with good tech as well as fundamental traders .
jmo,
max

www.3stocksonfire.org has a free area with lots of good traders, but none has a portfolio and justifies all his buy/hold/sell decisions - they're not paid to do it or to take the responsibility, of course. I work here all day everyday and the website has a lot of costs (Ramsburg programs all day, there's a dedicated server, office rent, taxes). What you're doing is like me going to your workplace and say: "you know what, I think you shouldn't be paid anymore. Your work doesn't have any value. Work for free or go home".

How much of an offense would that be?

Again, not you or yukiii are obligated to pay, in fact, I kindly ask you two to cancel your subscription immediately.

Thank you.

We have 2 of these yukii and yukiii
are one and the same ! 

I agree with David. No one is obligating me to make certain decisions. In the end...I'm responsible for my own decision. David is a help and I'm learning from him. Now if I were to just go off and do everything he says without my own due diligence...then fundamentally, I'm in a world of hurt. Yukii's right in that there are people following David in every decision he makes...but if David's wrong...well then fine. They have no one else to blame but themselves. He's not obligating anyone to do anything. If he messes up too much...subscriptions decline and so does his pay. And for a volatile and unpredictable the market he has to work with, i'd say he has a lot of pressure on him.  I'd say leave him be.

David, you're doing a great job and I really appreciate you sharing your knowledge, your interaction and definitely your humbleness. You're helping me change my life. Just know that there are people here who really do appreciate you. Keep up the good work!

I second that, krupnac. I get tired of reading posts like Yukiii's here prompting not to buy what David suggests, but offering other picks and not justifying them.

There is a lot of bullshit (pardon my French) out there on the Internet, but this is the site I've been subscribing to for soon 2 years and it made me believe I can achieve results. Plus, I get a dedicated, honest and cheap financial adviser, like you can't find anywhere else!

So, why don't you all losers get the hell out and unsubscribe, noone is going to make you rich but yourselves, IF you can.

Remember, you pay for an advice, not for a guarantee for your next Porsche to be there. By the way, on the money I made so far at 3sof I bought a nice BMW here in Massachusetts and feel very happy about it.

So, suck your thumb and let David do his work. \

Au revoir.

Quote from: berloga on July 01, 2007, 01:28:39 AM
.......
Remember, you pay for an advice, not for a guarantee for your next Porsche to be there. By the way, on the money I made so far at 3sof I bought a nice BMW here in Massachusetts and feel very happy about it.

So, suck your thumb and let David do his work. \

Au revoir.

c´est tres formidable, toutes mes félicitations 

Salut
Oliver
L´ allemand

J'espère que je peux acheter mon propre BMW aussi.

Yesterday I was feeling melancholic about JASO, SILC, NTES and other stocks that are currently above my selling price, so I made a quick study on the stocks I've sold this year and was surprised by the end result:



Of the 31 stocks sold, 16 are lower now and 15 are higher. The average decline of the stocks sold that went down after the selling is 19.12%, and the average advance of the stocks that rose after I sold them is 17.6%. The sum of all differences is -21%.

So, on average, stocks that were sold are now lower than what they were when I sold them.

But, of the 31 stocks sold, 4 are 20% or more higher than my selling price, and they are MCZ, JASO, EXM and SILC.

I've been thinking that, since we learn so much about a particular stock while I make the daily updates and with your comments and questions, I should keep paying attention to stocks that were sold, not on a daily basis, but periodically or according to a price trigger.

It is easier to understand a stock that was previously covered than a new one. A stock that goes down 30% from my selling price may actually be cheap and attractive again. And a stock that goes up 20% from my selling price perhaps had a change in fundamentals that will lead to a much higher share price (or it demonstrates that my reading of the fundamentals was wrong when selling).

So, from now on, I'll review the stocks I sell that go down more than 30% or that go up more than 20% from my selling price, taking a fresh new perspective, hopping to find attractive investment opportunities that I know well.

David,

thanks for your work on the sold stocks. I had also been thinking "I wish we would have kept JASO" but after looking at your analysis I'm glad I stick very close to your picks. I'll take a 20%( hopefully more by years end) every year without regrets!
Brad

Great work David!

I agree with you that working with something you know is easier than working with the unknown!

cheers,

tera

Very nice. Actually I have kept a record like this  

You can not be right each time, and in the long-run, statistically you will come out way ahead with your hard work. There is no need to agonize on a missed trade or two.

Statistics always keeps things in perspective.  

Good thoughts, David!

If you look in your table, mostly all picks that you've made can bring you profit (of course you have to be a profet to take the profit for sure  )

It is not easy to develop an exit strategy that will work universally. For instance, if you held on to TBSI 2 days longer you'd be making ~5% more, but since the yesterday's news, the stock shook off the top.

So I believe, selling for a cause is OK, so long as you return to re-evaluate the stock and critique your own decision afterwards to make sure the decision was made correctly.

 Good strategy, carry on!