3SOF

Quote from: nikao on July 14, 2005, 09:32:35 AM
thanks for the reply and your information on your setup. I was planning to wait for the break of the resistance of the triangle to step in, and have that line also as the stop loss as the resistance has to become support or else it would be a false break out. This way the risk is very low and the reward still nice as I also have 4.28 as target

That's fine, but be careful with using that trendline as your stop.  Sometimes, stocks dip back into the pattern, which would stop you out, then they take off higher. 

Recent example: Human Genome (HGSI).  I was watching during the day on July 1 for the breakout at 11.71.  I bought it.  It closed at 11.68, so it wasn't a breakout on a closing basis.  The next day, it closed at 12.00.  Confirmed breakout.  Three days later, however, it went back inside the Ascending Triangle pattern and dropped as low as 11.46.  I would have been stopped out, if I used the trendline as my stop     Two days later,  it was at 14.05.  (I sold it at 12.90 on some profit-taking).  I'd suggest giving breakouts a chance, then move your stop up when it takes off.

Quoteone more question: Do you watch intraday and step in as the stock breaks the resistance on the intraday chart, or do you wait for a close price to break the resistance?

Both.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 14, 2005, 10:07:35 AM

Quote from: nikao on July 14, 2005, 09:32:35 AM
thanks for the reply and your information on your setup. I was planning to wait for the break of the resistance of the triangle to step in, and have that line also as the stop loss as the resistance has to become support or else it would be a false break out. This way the risk is very low and the reward still nice as I also have 4.28 as target

That's fine, but be careful with using that trendline as your stop.  Sometimes, stocks dip back into the pattern, which would stop you out, then they take off higher. 

Recent example: Human Genome (HGSI).  I was watching during the day on July 1 for the breakout at 11.71.  I bought it.  It closed at 11.68, so it wasn't a breakout on a closing basis.  The next day, it closed at 12.00.  Confirmed breakout.  Three days later, however, it went back inside the Ascending Triangle pattern and dropped as low as 11.46.  I would have been stopped out, if I used the trendline as my stop     Two days later,  it was at 14.05.  (I sold it at 12.90 on some profit-taking).  I'd suggest giving breakouts a chance, then move your stop up when it takes off.

Quoteone more question: Do you watch intraday and step in as the stock breaks the resistance on the intraday chart, or do you wait for a close price to break the resistance?

Both.

I won't be using 'real' stop losses. I just want to trade disciplined, so I need to have an exit plan in my trade setup

BDCO is testing the resistance right now btw...

Had enough. Got out at 2.71, little over 6% loss and as soon as I sold it I see it recovering, as always in my case.
Good luck to all holding it.
P

+40% after the bell ...

THe news appears to be:

HOUSTON, July 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Blue Dolphin Energy Company (Nasdaq: BDCO - News; "Company") announced that it has entered into gas and condensate transportation and handling agreements with Manti Operating Company to deliver production into the Blue Dolphin Pipeline system in Galveston area state tract 348. Services are expected to commence within 60 days. Throughput volumes are not yet known.
ADVERTISEMENT


The Blue Dolphin Pipeline system gathers and transports gas and condensate from various offshore fields in the Galveston Area in the Gulf of Mexico to shore facilities in Freeport, Texas. The Company owns an 83% undivided interest in the system. The current aggregate capacity of the system is approximately 160 million cubic feet per day of gas and 7,000 barrels per day of condensate. The system is currently transporting at approximately 4% of capacity.

Thanks, and I give you applause for being on top of that!  That close in after hours is very interesting.  I'll post my thoughts and chart in the other folder, so we can keep our comments on one thread. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 13, 2005, 11:53:32 AM

Quote 
Okay, let's try this again.  I have a bid in at $2.92 All Or None.  BDCO currently is $2.92 BID ... $2.96 ASK.  I'm probably putting  a floor under today's selloff in the stock, and won't get filled, like yesterday. 

Hey, they relented, and filled me $2.92!     I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not. 
My stop is a CLOSE or obvious late day tank below Monday's trendline validation at 2.70.  Risk is 7½% loss.

I had a heck of a time getting my All Or None order filled last week, and I'm still not sure if this is a good thing or not, the way they hammered my 2.70 stop on a close on Thursday and Friday  

Thursday's low was 2.71 (dodged that bullet).  Friday's low was 2.70 exactly, but it managed to close up a penny on Friday, at 2.80.  Whew!  We need an "out of breath" face on the toolbar ... pant...pant...pant.   

Although the up trendline got violated intraday, the open on Friday (2.78) and the close on Friday (2.80) were smack on that validated up trendline on the chart.

Loize posted on a separate thread that BDCO closed at 4.10 in after hours (applauded for being on top of that).  I don't get too excited about anything that happens in after hours.  That's the "sudden impulse" MOMO boys jumping in without any due diligence, for the most part, and they could end up being BIG bag holders if BDCO opens Monday morning near Friday's 2.80 close.

That said, the trend is bullish.  BDCO rallied 763% in just one month earlier this year!  This correction off the March 17 high has been perfectly normal, and it wouldn't be technically unwarranted for BDCO to return to my upside target at the top of the triangle, which is darned close to the 4.10 close in after hours on Friday.

As I said, I'm not going to get too excited about the 4.10 in after hours, but I might start salivating a little if I see BDCO trading near 4.00 in pre-market on Monday 

I've merged both BDCO topics.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 16, 2005, 05:30:55 PM
As I said, I'm not going to get too excited about the 4.10 in after hours, but I might start salivating a little if I see BDCO trading near 4.00 in pre-market on Monday 

Last trade at 8:29AM...3.93...up 40.86%.  24,283 shares traded.

Okay, I'm starting to salivate a little, but I won't actually start drooling unless I see that get printed when the market opens in an hour. 

I got in at 3.50 this morning 

I think gas is a good investment - this one I might hold for quite a while.

Thanks for all the work you guys are putting into your analysis. Very educational to "listen" to your thoughts and reasoning.

Cheers.

I'd be careful with this one.  It has a history of selling off pretty hard after its rallies.  The news today doesn't seem significant, especially since this stock was under $1 a few months ago and ran up with all the low-float oil runners in recent months.

Quote from: VikingFan on July 18, 2005, 11:24:17 AM
I'd be careful with this one.  It has a history of selling off pretty hard after its rallies.  The news today doesn't seem significant, especially since this stock was under $1 a few months ago and ran up with all the low-float oil runners in recent months.

Funny, BDCO is the 4th highest percentage gainer today, right behind your CAFE and CAFEW.

BDCO rallied to a high of 4.17 at 9:55 this morning, seven cents below the top of the pattern on my chart above.  Volume was very heavy.  It's 4 times average daily volume so far, so I was hoping that it would blast through 4.24, and break out of the pattern, even though I agree with you that the news wasn't that signifcant. 

On the other hand, the news wasn't that significant when the stock rallied 763% in one month last winter, either. 

As trading has unfolded today, that initial rally to the top of the pattern turned out to be a nice place to sell.  I'm long from 2.92 with my stop at a CLOSE below 2.70.  I'm raising my stop to a PRINT below this morning's low of 3.32, and since the top of the pattern essentially was reached this morning (seven cents short), I might go ahead and sell this one this afternoon.  I'll post it, if I do.

Five minute chart:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1121706316734?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:BDCO&Interval=5&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=VOL&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

On the 5 minute chart, BDCO is working on a "W" bottom:

The left side of the "W" is 3.45 low at 10:50AM
The right side of the "W" is 3.47 at 1:30 PM
The middle of the "W" is the 3.84 high at 12:20 PM

If BDCO can print 3.85, taking out that 3.84 high, the pattern, interestingly, measures to 4.21, right near the top of that pattern, which comes in at 4.24 today (see my chart from this weekend).

3.84 (high of the "W") - 3.47 (we'll be conservative, and use the right leg of the "W") = 0.37.

0.37 added to a breakout above 3.84...0.37 + 3.84 = 4.21

If we use the left side of the "W"...

3.84 - 3.45 = 0.39 + 3.84 (high of the "W") = 4.23

It's got to take out 3.84, though.  BDCO currently is 3.61 BID...3.64 ASK

5 Minute Chart:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1121706316734?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:BDCO&Interval=5&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=VOL&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

I sold my postion at 3.58 for a 22.6% gain. 

The open today also was 3.58.  If we close here, today's candle is going to be a big gap up doji star.  While we could take out the middle of the "W" at 3.84 and rally to the top of the pattern near 4.24 tomorrow, we also could go down and fill this morning's gap that yawns below.  I decided to play the middle of the road, and take the profit.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 18, 2005, 01:40:46 PM
Funny, BDCO is the 4th highest percentage gainer today, right behind your CAFE and CAFEW.

Yes, but it ended the day as the 7th highest % gainer, and was down on the day from its open after shooting up over 4, forming an ugly candlestick. 

If you got in before today and sold today, it was great, but for anyone who got in today, they'd have been better off selling rather than holding.

Quote from: VikingFan on July 18, 2005, 04:12:41 PM

Yes, but it ended the day as the 7th highest % gainer, and was down on the day from its open after shooting up over 4, forming an ugly candlestick. 

That's why I sold it:

QuoteI sold my postion at 3.58 for a 22.6% gain. 

The open today also was 3.58.  If we close here, today's candle is going to be a big gap up doji star