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David, your exit price of 14.56 seems too low since NGA is growing.  At today's fair value I believe NGA should already be a 13 - 14 dollar stock.  On the next quarter earnings release, if they release stronger than expected numbers, will you still hold NGA if it surpasses your exit price.  I have a feeling NGA will surpass $14 and hit new highs after the earnings release which I believe will be around the end of July.  I called the company and someone in investors relation said that earnings will probably be released around the same time it was last year which was July 31.    My guess is Monday July 30. 

Quote from: mbaugh on July 13, 2007, 11:24:36 AM
David, your exit price of 14.56 seems too low since NGA is growing.  At today's fair value I believe NGA should already be a 13 - 14 dollar stock.  On the next quarter earnings release, if they release stronger than expected numbers, will you still hold NGA if it surpasses your exit price.  I have a feeling NGA will surpass $14 and hit new highs after the earnings release which I believe will be around the end of July.  I called the company and someone in investors relation said that earnings will probably be released around the same time it was last year which was July 31.    My guess is Monday July 30. 

Thanks for your input mbaugh

You know, if fundamentals improve I'll push my estimates higher.

And that can certainly be the case, since, for example, I have just 25% revenue CAGR in my valuation model and revenues in Q1 2007 when compared to Q1 2006 grew 52%.

But for now I'll leave it as it is, because 25% is the historical revenue growth rate.

NGA is certainly providing a nice "performance boost", again

(no chart available )

Chart 

Quote from: Amarens on July 16, 2007, 09:08:38 AM
Chart 

Thanks Amarens

I'll also have to leave a StockCharts chart. NGA has been up with strong volume, and fundamentals are very attractive. I'll keep holding the stock.

It seems NGA reacted negatively to a short term descending resistance (which I can't draw very well on the StockChart's chart - I need to pay Ramsburg another visit, several things not working well).

I guess yesterday's 6.8% fall was due to profit taking, because the stock had been up 36% in about one week.

I'll continue holding NGA.

I don't think NGA's descending channel (which actually is a bullish consolidation pattern) will last much longer, look what AZZ, its main competitor, is doing:



And NGA is much more attractive from a fundamental standpoint. I now have Metastock working full power

I'll keep holding NGA.

Switch to Nasdaq

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070719/lath014.html?.v=101

Quote from: BigSully1 on July 19, 2007, 09:02:54 AM
Switch to Nasdaq

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070719/lath014.html?.v=101

Thanks for posting the news BigSully1, it wasn't out when I made the daily update. It's a good move, from the AMEX to the Nasdaq. Next is the NYSE, where AZZ is traded

NGA opened with a big gap up, but the descending resistance prevent it from flying any further (and the move to the Nasdaq doesn't mean anything from a fundamental standpoint).

But, as we've been discussing, the fundamental landscape warrants a much higher share price, so I believe it is just a matter of time before the stock breaks out above the descending channel on the chart below.

I'll keep on holding NGA.

David, the updated short interest data was released and I was surprised to see that it had increased to 1,492,485 from 1,412,379.  These numbers were updated on July 13.  I don't understand why such high short interest in such a low market cap stock especially right before earnings.  It makes me wonder if they know something about the earnings beforehand.  The same applied to CIMT, right before earnings the short interest grew and they were right.  It doesn't make sense to short NGA unless you know something.  What's your take on this?

Thanks,
Mbaugh

Quote from: mbaugh on July 20, 2007, 09:06:48 AM
David, the updated short interest data was released and I was surprised to see that it had increased to 1,492,485 from 1,412,379.  These numbers were updated on July 13.  I don't understand why such high short interest in such a low market cap stock especially right before earnings.  It makes me wonder if they know something about the earnings beforehand.  The same applied to CIMT, right before earnings the short interest grew and they were right.  It doesn't make sense to short NGA unless you know something.  What's your take on this?

Thanks,
Mbaugh

My take is the short interest rose because the chart was bearish. Technical & momentum traders sold the stock short ... still no motive to cover, only when the stock breaks out above the descending channel resistance level, which today stands at $10.03. I think it is just a matter of time before this happens, shorts don't know what they're doing.

Thanks, I feel better!

David, Since we  had some bad expereinces with holding stocks thru earnings, do you feel that NGA could have a weaker quarter due to the slow down in the US housing sector?  I'm trying to find some info on the commerical side of the business as well.  The reason I'm asking is because we were so convinced about CIMT and I'm trying to avoid the same with NGA.  However, my gut tells me NGA will be different and to hold thru earnings which I believe to be sometime during the last week of July.  It just amazes me as to why so many are betting against NGA since the short interest is at an all time high.  I wonder if there's any info in the sec filings or news articles stating the strengh of the business.  Just thought we ought to look into this further to see if we can find any holes.  Thanks, Mbaugh

QuoteDavid, Since we  had some bad expereinces with holding stocks thru earnings, do you feel that NGA could have a weaker quarter due to the slow down in the US housing sector?

I don't think so, because of two reasons:

1) NGA's end costumers are in the following fields:



2) AZZ, which is NGA's largest competitor in the galvanizing industry, said the following in June 29, 2007:

«The Galvanizing Services Segment achieved record setting revenues in the first quarter (ended May 31st, 2007). Our operating results are reflective of strong market conditions and good price realization required to offset the increased cost of zinc. We are very pleased that the markets have been strong enough to absorb this level of price increases.»

QuoteThe reason I'm asking is because we were so convinced about CIMT and I'm trying to avoid the same with NGA.

I wasn't convinced about CIMT delivering a good 1st quarter, as I saw risks coming from seasonality. I'm just convinced about CIMT over the long term, not that quarter. But I welcome your push to go as far as we can get to increase or decrease our confidence in NGA.

QuoteHowever, my gut tells me NGA will be different and to hold thru earnings which I believe to be sometime during the last week of July.

There's still no indication from the company about the earnings release date, but I also figure it will be around July 30th, because in the 1st quarter they reported in April 30th.

QuoteIt just amazes me as to why so many are betting against NGA since the short interest is at an all time high.

Indeed, the short interest rose a lot over the last couple of months, from 51,388 shares to 1,412,379 now:



Short interest is now 11.53% of the # of shares outstanding, which I don't consider all that much. I don't think shorts know more than I do about NGA, they just like to sell short stocks that ran up a lot and seem to be breaking back down.

If NGA makes a bullish breakout after earnings, as I think it will, it will be nice in providing an example as to a high or low short interest doesn't mean anything for the future. We'll see, please remind me of this sentence on the post earnings period.

QuoteI wonder if there's any info in the sec filings or news articles stating the strengh of the business.

Like with any other company, NGA has risks stated in its 10-Q forms, mainly related with the environment and possible damages because of litigation. But nothing related to the strength of the business, like in TZOO's case. Unless shorts know there will be a lawsuit or something similar that affects NGA, they're probably wrong.

QuoteJust thought we ought to look into this further to see if we can find any holes.  Thanks, Mbaugh

It's always a good idea Mbaugh, thanks

We'll keep studying NGA, I'll keep holding.

i hold never a stock through earnings...its a risky gamble...diet, cimt for example lost 20-30% or more immediately...why not learning from mistakes.

A tendency of holding none or otherwise holding all through earnings is perhaps less damaging than holding some and getting rid of the others. But again, that's only based on a probability factor. NGA seems to be strong in its business. With CIMT and DIET I guess we just relied on that scarse information at hand.