3SOF

Hi Ket,

  I've done very well holding ISRG through earnings since 2004 ( with the exception of one quarter )..I guess it just depends upon the stock..did get hit hard on CIMT, though.

Dory99

Quote from: Dory99 on July 23, 2007, 01:26:03 AM
Hi Ket,

  I've done very well holding ISRG through earnings since 2004 ( with the exception of one quarter )..I guess it just depends upon the stock..did get hit hard on CIMT, though.

Dory99

hi dory yeah you did well with isrg it went up big....now 199.84 crazy...great...i generally dont like to hold for earnings because i cant controll it which way it goes....as i am a pivot trader.....trading with tight stops (2%) mostly....i am up 95% in 19 month with this tactic.

Quote from: Dory99 on July 23, 2007, 01:26:03 AM
Hi Ket,

  I've done very well holding ISRG through earnings since 2004 ( with the exception of one quarter )..I guess it just depends upon the stock..did get hit hard on CIMT, though.

Dory99

Congrats with ISRG Dory99, that stock had an exceptional run up

CIMT's time will come, we'll just have to be (very) patient.

In my view there are two problems with short term trading:

1) The hot hand/cold hand phenomenon

2) Those strategies don't have scalability. I'm interested in a strategy that can be used with $10 K as well as with $100 M.

Coming back to NGA, there wasn't anything new yesterday, the stock continues to struggle with its descending channel but I think that, because of the attractiveness of the fundamentals, bulls will prevail.

I was somewhat surprised to see NGA down 5.6% yesterday (not all that much because the S&P 500 was down 2% plus on the session), but at the same time pleased, from a technical perspective, that the stock held $8.64 on a closing basis. Volume also picked up some.

I firmly believe NGA will ultimately breakout above the short term descending channel (which is a bullish continuation pattern), so I'll keep on holding NGA.

NGA had a nasty close yesterday, below some short term support levels. The market seems to be ignoring specific fundamentals of stocks and instead concentrating on macroeconomic issues. I've never seen a bear market start with so many worries in the air, it usually starts when everybody is optimistic about the future.

It has been a tough ride over the past few days, and today is setting up to be pretty ugly too, but focusing on the stocks themselves and thinking if the long term bull market will continue or not, I must say that I like my stocks and I believe the long term bull market will continue. I'll keep holding NGA.

I didn't thought NGA would make this type of bottom, but I do think it is very close to hitting bottom. Fundamentals are very attractive, but people sold everything where they had a profit to make.

the weekly chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NGA&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p39290296546

6 still my target...would be good bounce off area from there...

Quote from: ket1390 on July 27, 2007, 05:59:17 PM
the weekly chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NGA&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p39290296546

6 still my target...would be good bounce off area from there...

Ket, Just curious as to why you think NGA will go back down to $6.  Are you holding a short position?  I realize the weekly chart doesn't look good. Are you implying that the chart knows something we don't?  Maybe it does.  You were right on your call regarding CIMT on the last earnings report and I held. I still have my CIMT.  As for NGA, I held my shares since the research I did point to a growing company.  I believe that NGA will post a good earnings report and the stock will go up.  Did you find anything negative on the company that makes you think NGA will not perform since you believe its going to fall, or are you just going by the chart?  I realize the general market is not good, but the doom and gloom won't last forever.  We needed a correction just not all at once.  As for NGA I'm hoping that they benefited from the strong industrial spending that took place during the last quarter as stated in the GDP report today, it stated that industrial spending hit a 13 year high.  Does that chart always foretell future actions?  Maybe, but I've missed too many golden opportunites by not sticking to my original plan and by not listening to my gut.  My gut tells me NGA opens at $10 after earnings are released!  Either way, good luck, we all need it!

Mbaugh

Quote from: mbaugh on July 27, 2007, 09:19:24 PM
Ket, Just curious as to why you think NGA will go back down to $6. 

I think he said that because NGA is breaking down again from Descending Triangle and it made the 3rd hit from Decending Resistance.

If you do the math, you will get the technical target of $5.43. Unless NGA is going to report a blowout earnings and $5.43 target will never get made because Fundamentals will trump the Technicals.

11.63 - 8.53 = $3.10
08.53 - 3.10 = $5.43

Sorry for the first chart, it was posted a month ago.

I found this on NGA's thread on the yahoo board.  I thought it was worth posting here for whoever still has NGA.

from rainrunner7

"Good analysis abba. In regards to the recent insider selling, investors must realize that when executives are granted stock options as a part of their compensation package, they often find themselves in the rather envious position of sitting on way too much of a good thing. In other words, the personal portfolios of these executives are typically weighted heavily with just one stock, and financial advisors usually recommend selling some of that stock in order to diversify the executive's portfolio.

These men and women typically don't get where they are in life by being fools with money, and sitting on a small fortune all wrapped up in one stock would be quite foolish. When these insider sales take place, the reason usually amounts to no more than a desire to diversify, a desire to improve one's lifestyle, or a combination thereof. Dumping stock because you know a bad quarter is coming up is illegal under SEC rules, and I believe carries a mandatory prison sentence.

If any longs here really believe NGA executives would risk prison time, and kill the goose that lays the golden eggs so to speak, then you shouldn't be investing in this company in the first place. In short, if they knew this quarter would be bad, and sold their shares without disclosing such inside information to the public beforehand, they would be guilty of a rather serious felony.

I also agree with abbaman that it probably works to our advantage that NGA doesn't give guidance. There's nothing worse than being long in shares of a company that has a blowout quarter on rapidly rising revenues but misses the analyst's estimates by a penny and the stock tanks, basically as a knee jerk reaction. I'm holding my long position through earnings because NGA hasn't seen a ridiculous runup going into the earnings call, and there are no analyst estimates to meet or beat. The numbers should be compared to the same quarter last year, and the yoy revenue gains and earnings gains should be spectacular.

NGA's forward price to sales ratio(based on last quarters revenue and assuming no growth) is less than 1. The forward PE is about 10. Not bad for a fast growing company that should be considered a strong candidate to be bought out by a larger company.

Just a few thoughts. Good luck with this coming week. Earnings should come out, and I believe we start trading on the NASDAQ on Aug 2nd. "


Sentiment : Strong Buy

Great post mbaugh (as always), thanks for sharing

I especially enjoyed the following parts:

QuoteI also agree with abbaman that it probably works to our advantage that NGA doesn't give guidance. There's nothing worse than being long in shares of a company that has a blowout quarter on rapidly rising revenues but misses the analyst's estimates by a penny and the stock tanks, basically as a knee jerk reaction. I'm holding my long position through earnings because NGA hasn't seen a ridiculous runup going into the earnings call, and there are no analyst estimates to meet or beat. The numbers should be compared to the same quarter last year, and the yoy revenue gains and earnings gains should be spectacular.

NGA's forward price to sales ratio(based on last quarters revenue and assuming no growth) is less than 1. The forward PE is about 10. Not bad for a fast growing company that should be considered a strong candidate to be bought out by a larger company.

It says it all, the lack of analysts covering the stock is part of the reason why this stock is trading at less than half of the valuation it should have, something that doesn't happen with AZZ, its largest competitor that trades at 20 times fiscal 2008 EPS, because it issues guidance and has analyst coverage.

The stock just touched support, my hands are strong.

Earnings out!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070730/lam701.html?.v=4

David, what's your opinion on the earnings?  It seems revenues were down slightly from the first quarter and EPS was also down slightly from Q1.  However it is much higher than Q2 last year.  I believe this is due to the price of zinc fluctuating.  I'm going to continue to hold unless you have a different opinion.

Quote from: mbaugh on July 30, 2007, 08:59:48 AM
David, what's your opinion on the earnings?  It seems revenues were down slightly from the first quarter and EPS was also down slightly from Q1.  However it is much higher than Q2 last year.  I believe this is due to the price of zinc fluctuating.  I'm going to continue to hold unless you have a different opinion.

I agree with you, the stock is trading at 11.5 times earnings, it should be trading at 20 times earnings like its competitor AZZ, so it is worth, with the current fundamental information, about $13.6.

I'll make a more complete analysis over the next update, but I'll keep holding without a doubt.

No favorable response in pre-market.  Hope it doesn't tank.