3SOF

Quote from: BigSully1 on July 31, 2007, 11:50:57 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on July 31, 2007, 10:55:23 AM
Good ER from PCMall.   MALL

Probably why SYX gapped up this morning and then fell back into it's base. I just bought some SYX in anticipation of very good ER.

Since it is impossible to buy the best (NewEgg), you opted to buy SYX BigSully (probably the second best). It's very nice to have you on board

SYX opened above $22, but that was a short term resistance level, and with the Dow going down by 150 points, the stock couldn't hold the line, unfortunately.

But over time the ascending triangle technical pattern should breakout one way and one way only: up!

Fundamentally we're starting to see several online retailers entering seriously in the black, like AMZN and now MALL. SYX's profitability probably will also improve ... even PFSW is starting to do well.

I'll continue holding SYX.

SYX continues to build inside that ascending triangle. Today the stock was removed from the naked shorts list:

BUYINS.NET: SYX, TTM, MPZ, THK, ARTE, ICOP Have Been Removed From Naked Short List Today

It doesn't mean much.

Fundamentally SYX just needs to expand its net profit margin from 1.92% to 5% to be worth $70 a share. Amazon and other online retailers have been posting nice 2nd quarter numbers and I think that's a clue that online retailers are starting to get very profitable, finally.

I'll continue holding SYX, expecting it to close above $22 anytime now.

SYX traded down all day but then was able to finish marginally higher. I continue to expect the stock to breakout above $22.

I like SYX, but I have to sell two of the Main Portfolio holdings, due to the strategic move I'll be making today, and from the current 13 holdings of the Main, I pick SYX to sell, because of two weaknesses, one fundamental and the other one technical:

1) As one can read in my initial buying recommendation for SYX, one of the buying motives was that I expected SYX to benefit from the potential bankruptcy of www.ecost.com (and other small players), owned by PFSW. Well, as we all know, that didn't materialize, since PFSW's management did a remarkable turnaround in the eCost division (and that's the main reason why we hold PFSW in the Main Portfolio). Also, if the US consumption slows down, SYX may see its profits turn into losses, because it has such a slim net profit margin.

2) Technically, I've been expecting SYX to break the $22 resistance level on the upside, due to the ascending channel technical pattern, but instead the stock broke the pattern on the downside:



The trading plan for SYX is SELL.

Systemax CEO Buys Shares
Monday August 20, 5:27 pm ET
Systemax Chief Executive Richard Leeds Buys 10,000 Shares

NEW YORK (AP) -- The chairman and chief executive of Systemax Inc., which directly markets personal computers and other related products, exercises options for 10,000 shares of common stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Friday.

In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Richard Leeds reported he exercised the options Wednesday for $19.92 to $20.37 apiece.

Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

in total:

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS REPORTED - LAST TWO YEARS
Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
15-Aug-07 LEEDS RICHARD
This is HUGE. They already own over 22,000,000 shares and add more. This is there first buy in a long time.

Officer 10,000 Indirect Purchase at $19.92 - $20.37 per share. $201,0002
15-Aug-07 LEEDS ROBERT
Officer 10,000 Indirect Purchase at $19.92 - $20.37 per share. $201,0002
15-Aug-07 LEEDS BRUCE
Officer 10,000 Indirect Purchase at $19.92 - $20.37 per share. $201,000

 
Correction: Systemax Insider Story
Wednesday August 22, 8:24 am ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- In an Aug. 20 story about Systemax Inc.'s chief executive, The Associated Press erroneously reported that Richard Leeds exercised stock options to acquire shares. He bought the shares outright on the open market, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

SYX: Short Interest DN 19.3% to 4.7M in Aug 2007
Wednesday, August 22, 2007 10:52ET

According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Systemax Inc (NYSE: SYX) DECREASED 19.3% to 4,698,226 shares for the month ended mid-August, 2007.

SYMBOL       JULY          AUGUST          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SYX        5,824,824       4,698,226      -1,126,598       -19.34%           9

Based on SYX's 20-day average daily share volume of 525,340, it would require approximately 9 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

and yet, it seems that this stock is being pushed down...

Quote from: raspi on August 22, 2007, 01:41:52 PM
and yet, it seems that this stock is being pushed down...

How long do you think that will last? I'm a buyer today.

My biggest mistakes this year have been selling stocks that I loved from a fundamental standpoint, mostly because of technical factors. In this list I remember ASTI, JASO, EXM, TBSI, SILC ... well, there were also others that I've sold before they collapsed. Anyway, if I had held on to these big winners longer or bought back after selling, performance would be some meaningful points higher, say, about 10 pp.

SYX is one of those stocks that I've loved for a long time, from a fundamental standpoint. I think the stock can reach $70 in a couple of years time, as you can read in this thread. The last time I sold it, it was mainly because of technical factors, a stupidity really. My hands are a lot stronger now, as my confidence in fundamental analysis grew.

I've been watching the stock rise from the sidelines ... insiders have been buying, as you can read la-onda's writing just above. BigSully1, which at times was a skeptical on SYX, has bought too. These are all positive factors.

And I would like to add two more:

1) Online sales of electronic goods have been strong, even lifting the weakest ship, which is www.e-cost.com (which belongs to PFSW). I wonder what's happening with www.tigerdirect.com?

2) SYX closed above $22, it looks like it's going to breakout (not that significant, really).

With just 7% or so of available capital left, I feel I want SYX in the Main Portfolio. I can't afford loving it and watching it rise without me, like it happened with those other big gainers.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy SYX, 6.66% of capital.

Unfortunately SYX couldn't surpass that damn $22-$22.2 resistance level at this attempt. However, when people sell on the failed technical breakout, they should consider they're selling at the same prices insiders were willing to buy just recently.

I have no doubts that SYX will ultimately make a bullish breakout above the $22 resistance level, it is just a matter of time. Today I'm a bit short on time because it is a public holiday here in Portugal today (to celebrate the end of the Monarchy and start of the Republic in October 5th, 1905), but over the next update I'll put SYX's valuation model back in place.

I'll keep holding SYX for the long term.

Quote from: David Randolph on October 05, 2007, 08:23:30 AM
Unfortunately SYX couldn't surpass that damn $22-$22.2 resistance level at this attempt. However, when people sell on the failed technical breakout, they should consider they're selling at the same prices insiders were willing to buy just recently.

I have no doubts that SYX will ultimately make a bullish breakout above the $22 resistance level, it is just a matter of time. Today I'm a bit short on time because it is a public holiday here in Portugal today (to celebrate the end of the Monarchy and start of the Republic in October 5th, 1905), but over the next update I'll put SYX's valuation model back in place.

I'll keep holding SYX for the long term.

I think it just might make it through today or soon. I'm still holding...

I think it safe to say $22 is in the past now. BREAKOUT

Quote from: BigSully1 on October 05, 2007, 01:06:32 PM
I think it safe to say $22 is in the past now. BREAKOUT

Yeah, cool

There's a good lesson here too:

"If you sell a good stock just because your hands were weak, at least have the courage to buy it back at a higher price".

Nice breakout