3SOF

A press release out from ALDN, but with no material impact on the share price:

• Aladdin Chief Cryptographer to Speak at Black Hat USA 2007
PR Newswire (Mon 6:30am)

Nothing new on the technical front. I'll keep holding ALDN.

ALDN rose a bit today, despite the general market weakness. I think it is just a matter of time before we see the stock above $24.

ALDN will speak today in Las Vegas:

• Aladdin Chief Cryptographer to Speak at Black Hat USA 2007
PR Newswire (Mon, Jul 30)

I don't expect anything surprising, but I would like to have the slides of the conference, I wonder if the company will provide them at its website.

I'll keep holding ALDN.

QuoteI don't expect anything surprising, but I would like to have the slides of the conference, I wonder if the company will provide them at its website.

I'm not finding anything at www.aladdin.com.

Nice bounce from the 50 days SMA yesterday, let's see if it gets traction and pushes towards $24.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 03, 2007, 05:45:25 AM

QuoteI don't expect anything surprising, but I would like to have the slides of the conference, I wonder if the company will provide them at its website.

I'm not finding anything at www.aladdin.com.

Nice bounce from the 50 days SMA yesterday, let's see if it gets traction and pushes towards $24.

David I think it is just started an uptrend and the beginning was at 19.95 it will be confirmed if it breaks the high this month ..
I feel like this stock will just explode and go up very fast 

QuoteDavid I think it is just started an uptrend and the beginning was at 19.95 it will be confirmed if it breaks the high this month ..
I feel like this stock will just explode and go up very fast

The general market isn't helping ALDN to breakout to new highs, but the stock is holding up better than most.

ALDN is an Israeli based global business, with 26% of its revenues coming from the US and 52% from Europe. I truly enjoy the company's products and services, in the software security area, which I think is an area that will continue to grow at double digits for years to come.

I'll continue holding ALDN for the long term.

ALDN held better than most stocks while the general market slumped, so probably it will be able to breakout to new highs now that fears have somewhat subsided. I enjoy ALDN's relatively calm way of moving up and down.

I'll keep holding ALDN.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 08, 2007, 07:17:51 AM
ALDN held better than most stocks while the general market slumped, so probably it will be able to breakout to new highs now that fears have somewhat subsided. I enjoy ALDN's relatively calm way of moving up and down.

I'll keep holding ALDN.

I'm not so sure fears have subsided anymore, since futures are down sharply this morning, but I believe ALDN's business is independent of the economic cycle and has a life of its own. I expect the stock to behave the same way and I'll keep holding ALDN.

ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.

The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.

The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.

Yes David now you'er doing the right thing 

I already got out of the stock yesterday at $21.21 , the chart is really ugly now indicating a more drop in the stock's price ..


Good job David

Quote from: Garoh on August 10, 2007, 07:30:40 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.

The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.

Yes David now you'er doing the right thing 

I already got out of the stock yesterday at $21.21 , the chart is really ugly now indicating a more drop in the stock's price ..


Good job David

I sold yesterday too 

Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.

The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.

The stock went higher after I sold, but now it is heading down to close that gap at $17.15. It will be a good long term buy at that price, trading at 13 times 2008 EPS estimates:



The fundamentals never stopped improving ... multiple expansion and contraction plays a major role in stock prices over the short and medium terms.

Earnings report is due tommorrow A.M.

QuoteThe stock went higher after I sold, but now it is heading down to close that gap at $17.15. It will be a good long term buy at that price, trading at 13 times 2008 EPS estimates

Almost closed the gap, as ALDN's low was $17.3. Then results were released:

• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Reports Record Annual Revenues, Net Income and Cash Flow
PR Newswire (Thu, Jan 24)

Guidance was strong:

«Fiscal year 2008 GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $1.28 to $1.40. The Company reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.02 in fiscal year 2007.»

Estimates for 2009 rose a bit.

ALDN currently trades at 15.9 times 2008 estimated EPS, while it is expected to grow EPS by 30% in the year. For 2009, EPS growth is expected to be 16.5%.

I guess the expected long term growth rate for the business is about 16% and the stock trades at that earnings multiple. It seems fairly valued. Unless fundamentals change drastically I would say ALDN will continue trading between $17 and $23 or so.

ALDN down 23% due to weak earnings release and lower guidance:

InPlay: Aladdin Knowledge Systems misses by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY08 revs guidance
Briefing.com (Mon 7:35am)