3SOF

SWIR is NVTL's main competitor, so we know its industry rather well. Both companies make the little modems and antennas that allow us to have mobile internet, provided by a mobile communications operator, like Vodafone in Europe and Sprint in the US, for example.

SWIR is actually a bit cheaper than NVTL now, if we compare market caps, revenues and net profit margin trends, I would say SWIR is trading with a discount of about 20% relative to NVTL (but they're both very attractive). Here's my valuation model for SWIR:



SWIR dilutes a bit less than NVTL, is growing revenues at about the same rate and I expect both companies to have the same net profit margin of 8% and trade at the average industry EPS multiple of 25.35.

One of the things I like about NVTL and SWIR is visibility. There's no way this mobile internet trend will stop, everybody loves mobile internet (but not many people already have it, it takes time for consumers to adapt). Laptop computer sales are also growing much faster than desktops. This mobile internet is another way of mobile operators to steal business from the fixed line operators (and cable operators), now they're after the internet connection business. And they both sell for roughly the same price, the mobile & the fixed internet connection. If they both have the same quality, which one are you going to choose, especially if you're being bombarded by advertising from mobile operators? The mobile connection.

But, for mobile operators to sell their mobile connection monthly subscription fee, they need NVTL's or SWIR's products. I think it won't take long for laptops to be sold already with a mobile internet connection, the way it happens with mobile phones. Imagine "I'm going to buy an HP laptop with a Sprint internet connection for $100 dollars less. I just have to stay loyal to Sprint for one year".

Technically SWIR broke down badly on Friday, because of an analyst downgrade and the general market weakness. Well, I don't expect the general market weakness to last much longer and in fact, I expect the S&P 500 to end the year above the highs it made recently, as you can read on my latest remarks about the general market: Re: About the general market slump yesterday

The trading plan is:

Buy SWIR, 6.66% of capital, as always.

 

Sierra Wireless "market outperform," target price raised

Monday, July 30, 2007 11:08:06 AM ET
JMP Securities

NEW YORK, July 30 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "market outperform" rating on Sierra Wireless Inc (SWIR.NAS), while raising their estimates for the company.
The target price has been raised from $27.50 to $32.00.

In a research note published on July 27, the analysts mention that the company has reported its F2Q07 GAAP EPS ahead of the consensus. Sierra Wireless' revenues grew 26% due to robust demand for the company's recently launched USB products, the analysts say. JMP Securities believes that the company is well positioned to benefit going forward from increasing adoption of 3G broadband services. The GAAP EPS estimates for FY07 and FY08 have been raised from $0.93 to $1.02 and from $1.23 to $1.29, respectively.

&

Sierra Wireless "buy"

Monday, July 30, 2007 8:42:42 AM ET
Morgan Joseph & Co

NEW YORK, July 30 (newratings.com) - In a research note published on July 27, analyst Kevin Dede of Morgan Joseph reiterates his "buy" rating on Sierra Wireless Inc (SWIR.NAS).
The target price is set to $30.

Sorry, I forgot SWIR's update, it has been a tough day today in my personal life. SWIR is rising 2.4% today, which is good, considering yesterday we've had a doji candlestick that may mean the short term trend is about to change, from bearish to bullish.

It is helping to compensate NVTL's fall due to another downgrade.

I'll hold SWIR.

For now it's still down. Read the story and I'm interested.

I also think there is no way this mobile internet trend will stop. Also think of working from everywere to avoid the traffic jams. At least in Holland this is happening.

Got in at 22,47.

Now I only need to find a way to follow the updates from my holiday address in Italy next week   

Amarens

QuoteI also think there is no way this mobile internet trend will stop. Also think of working from everywere to avoid the traffic jams. At least in Holland this is happening.

Is it? Holland is usually the first in everything

QuoteNow I only need to find a way to follow the updates from my holiday address in Italy next week     

Italy? Sounds great ... well, I send the daily newsletter by private message too, so you just need to go to a cyber coffee before the open and check out www.3stocksonfire.org.

Or else have a mobile internet connection with roaming (I'm sure this will be available in the future).

As for SWIR, I believe the stock is bottoming and will be above $30 before the year closes. I'll keep holding it.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 01, 2007, 07:36:49 AM
Italy? Sounds great ... well, I send the daily newsletter by private message too, so you just need to go to a cyber coffee before the open and check out www.3stocksonfire.org.

Or else have a mobile internet connection with roaming (I'm sure this will be available in the future).

Think I'll do the cyber cappucino  ...

Sure a connection with roaming will be available too. But David, how about the possibility of receiving a text message with the updates (just the hold or sell info) in the nearby future, included in the service. Have that from my broker too for the Dutch stocks and it works great. Maybe something to look into.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 01, 2007, 07:36:49 AM
As for SWIR, I believe the stock is bottoming and will be above $30 before the year closes. I'll keep holding it.

Well, looks like it's bottoming a little more. And I thought I bought at the bottom this time  , should have known better...

We'll wait and see.
Amarens

QuoteSure a connection with roaming will be available too. But David, how about the possibility of receiving a text message with the updates (just the hold or sell info) in the nearby future, included in the service. Have that from my broker too for the Dutch stocks and it works great. Maybe something to look into.

That's a good idea Amarens, I'll have Ramsburg take a look at it and see if it is technically in our reach or not. Thanks

QuoteWell, looks like it's bottoming a little more. And I thought I bought at the bottom this time  Angry, should have known better... Wink

We'll wait and see.
Amarens

Yeah, bottoms are always extremely hard to catch. It seems like everyday, for one reason or another, the Main is getting a 10% punch in the stomach from one of its holdings.

But it is still up 9.8% for the year, compared with 3.35% for the year, despite all the troubles. This year is shaping up to be more difficult than I thought, but I remain confident that one or two star holdings will push the Main up 30% for the year when everything closes.

SWIR went down 9.5% yesterday, to touch its 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which normally ends an healthy correction. We'll see if that's the case or not.

SWIR is expected to earn EPS of $1.02 in 2007 and $1.25 in 2008. But I expect a lot more for 2008, not a slowdown in growth, but even stronger growth. Anyway, analysts are expecting just 22.5% growth in EPS in 2008, even though in 2007 it will grow about 168%, from $0.38 EPS in 2006.

I believe the stock is quite cheap, considering its growth rate, which I expect to be maintained or even accelerate going forward.

I'll keep holding SWIR, despite the setback.

Thanks. Will see if Ramsburg can make it work. Don't know about others, but I would be willing to pay for the message. One should be able to switch the service on or off per day. Anyway, in Holland all online brokers (www.binck.nl and www.alex.nl) have this service. Some of the banks are looking into in too.

Looks like SWIR found some trendline 

Amarens

QuoteLooks like SWIR found some trendline

It sure did Amarens, nice 6.9% rally

Perhaps it will take some time to build a base, but I expect SWIR to move towards $30 by the end of the year and I'll keep holding.

Zacks update:
Zacks.com
Buy Reiterated on Sierra Wireless
Friday August 3, 3:13 pm ET
By Zacks Equity Research

Wireless services company Sierra Wireless (NasdaqGM: SWIR - News) continues to warrant a Buy rating from Zacks senior telecommunications analyst David Weissman, CFA. We wanted to find out why, so we looked into his latest report:

Higher usage for wireless broadband Internet access, and widespread deployments of 3G wireless technology have enabled Sierra Wireless, a leading provider of OEM [original equipment manufacturer] wireless modem cards and access solutions, to announce strong second quarter 2007 financial results. Precipitous demand for wireless modems interfacing with mobile devices and laptops generated better-than-expected sales for the company\'s USB products.

The acquisition of AirLink Communications diversified Sierra\'s business opportunities with a significant contribution to overall gross margin levels. Sierra Wireless extended it business channels to provide multiple products to several large wireless carriers. We believe the long-term growth prospects remain firm as telecom carriers are increasingly deploying high-speed 3G networks on a global basis.

We maintain our Buy recommendation and raise our valuation target for Sierra based on its recent performance and improved earnings visibility. The current valuation does not adequately reflect Sierra\'s true business potential moving forward. We therefore raised our six-month valuation target to $28 based on EV [enterprise value]/Sales of 1.6x to our 2007 estimated sales, at par with its nearest competitor Novatel Wireless (NasdaqGM: NVTL - News).

Quote from: la-onda on August 04, 2007, 03:28:34 AM
Zacks update:
Zacks.com
Buy Reiterated on Sierra Wireless
Friday August 3, 3:13 pm ET
By Zacks Equity Research

Wireless services company Sierra Wireless (NasdaqGM: SWIR - News) continues to warrant a Buy rating from Zacks senior telecommunications analyst David Weissman, CFA. We wanted to find out why, so we looked into his latest report:

Higher usage for wireless broadband Internet access, and widespread deployments of 3G wireless technology have enabled Sierra Wireless, a leading provider of OEM [original equipment manufacturer] wireless modem cards and access solutions, to announce strong second quarter 2007 financial results. Precipitous demand for wireless modems interfacing with mobile devices and laptops generated better-than-expected sales for the company\'s USB products.

The acquisition of AirLink Communications diversified Sierra\'s business opportunities with a significant contribution to overall gross margin levels. Sierra Wireless extended it business channels to provide multiple products to several large wireless carriers. We believe the long-term growth prospects remain firm as telecom carriers are increasingly deploying high-speed 3G networks on a global basis.

We maintain our Buy recommendation and raise our valuation target for Sierra based on its recent performance and improved earnings visibility. The current valuation does not adequately reflect Sierra\'s true business potential moving forward. We therefore raised our six-month valuation target to $28 based on EV [enterprise value]/Sales of 1.6x to our 2007 estimated sales, at par with its nearest competitor Novatel Wireless (NasdaqGM: NVTL - News).

Thanks for the useful information la-onda

SWIR closed down 3.8% yesterday, but then it rose 3.26% in after hours trading, in sympathy with NVTL's better than expected earnings.

Given NVTL's increase in full year 2007 revenue and EPS guidance, I guess those analysts calling for a 2nd half slowdown were wrong, as both companies keep surprising on the upside, due to increasing demand for their products.

I'll continue holding SWIR, despite the short term technical weakness.

SWIR rose even more than NVTL on NVTL's great quarterly results and guidance, which is a very good technical sign. I sincerely believe the bottom is in for SWIR and I expect the stock to start moving higher from this point. Of course, the dip was deeper than I initially thought, and I would have done better if I waited for the dust to settle and buy when there were clues the stock was turning North again, but ... I make mistakes like everybody else.

I'll keep holding SWIR for the long term.

A bit of a pullback on SWIR yesterday, no big deal. I'll continue holding the stock.

It will be hard for SWIR to sustain that ascending trendline, the way the S&P 500 is set to open. We'll see.

If it falls some more SWIR will be at the same levels before the surge in demand for its products happened, it's just silly for the market to behave this way, like if specific businesses didn't count, only the general market trend.

I believe that over time investors will start separating the good from the bad, the industries and companies that will grow revenues and earnings from the ones that will see their numbers contract or turn negative, like it will probably happen to many banks.

I'll continue holding SWIR.

 Bell launches newest wireless PC card, continues high speed mobile data network expansion
Friday , August 10, 2007 13:40ET

TORONTO, Ontario, Aug. 10, 2007 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- Sierra Wireless AirCard(R) 595 PC card now available from Bell Mobility

Bell today announced ongoing speed enhancements to its high speed mobile data network, supported by the newest addition to its mobile broadband devices: the Sierra Wireless AirCard(R) 595 PC card.

The fastest wireless data network available across Canada, offering peak upload speeds of up to 1.8 megabits per second (Mbps) and peak download speeds of up to 3.1 Mbps, the Bell high speed network offers data clients the most convenient mobile access to e-mail, the Internet or corporate networks available. The network now covers 68 per cent of the Canadian population, with further expansion and enhancement to come in 2007.

"The ongoing upgrades to the Bell high speed wireless network underscore the growing importance of mobile data and how it's changing the manner in which Canadians conduct business," said Adel Bazerghi, VP Products for Bell Mobility. "Bell is leading the way in providing the fastest mobile broadband access to its clients across Canada."

Sierra Wireless AirCard 595 PC card

Operating on Bell's enhanced high speed data network, the AirCard 595 PC card by Sierra Wireless provides great benefits for media streaming and emailing very large files. And where the newest high-speed enhancements are not available, the AirCard 595 is backward compatible with earlier data network technology and will seamlessly connect at the fastest speed possible.

"The EVDO Rev A technology in the AirCard 595 is a great advancement for those who depend on their wireless data connection to send information while working remotely," said Dan Schieler, senior vice president of worldwide sales for Sierra Wireless. "We are pleased to work with Bell Mobility to offer Canadian customers a powerful mobile broadband connection that can deal effectively with the information they need to share."

The AirCard 595 also offers a fixed, high-performance antenna design for highest speeds and reliability, and support for Microsoft Windows XP, 2000, and Mac OS X (visit www.sierrawireless.com/mac to download Mac OS X support software).

The AirCard 595 is available for $99.95 on a three-year contract. Until Aug. 30, new three-year activations will also receive $50 off when clients opt for the $99/month 1GB rate plan. Clients can also benefit from Bell's offer of three months of Unlimited Data Usage for PC Card users who subscribe on a three-year term.

To learn more about the Bell high speed wireless data network and the Sierra Wireless AirCard 595, please visit www.businessonthego.ca.