3SOF

Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 09, 2007, 11:12:56 PM
just take a moment to refocus, regroup and I am very confident you will be able to come back with a vengence just like you found that GOAM trade. I know you can find a couple of other GOAMS out there that can help this thing get back on track.

We got one in the portfolio...it is GSB .....that stock is hanging there very strong while the market is falling apart..

Quote from: TraderStar on August 09, 2007, 11:50:13 PM
Guess I will add my 2 cents here :-) 

I've rarely encountered anyone with more savvy than David in picking small cap stocks with potential to give big returns.
But the timing for entry ... often has room for improvement. 
Much of the time it's like .. "I've found another good one, let's buy on open tomorrow".
And the chart is screaming ... "not yet!!" 

Picking winning stocks may be the most important component of wealth-building, but it is not the only one.  There are 2 others:  timing of entry and timing the market.
Since the Dow hit 14k, there were numerous signs of failure at least in the short term.  Profits should have been taken in all holdings and new entries postponed until the best setups once again present themselves.
NGA for example ...why not exit at the first close below the 50 sma .. or the second one at latest... then sit back in the weeds & watch.  The market fell apart & so did NGA.  Now it just bounced on its 200 sma, so maybe there's a new entry down here ..
Take profits at $9 and re-invest at $5.64 with a really tight stop .. what's wrong with that? 

I think it would work out better to be trading these great picks ..  not just buy & blindly hold on, come what may.

You don't need charts that look like the blueprints for the New York subway system 
... just a couple of moving averages, stochastics, volume .. a few simple indicators are enough because we already know the stocks are fundamentally sound and will eventually run ... like TBSI for example

David Elliott of Wall Street Teachers is an excellent market timer and has some basic technical timing indicators he uses (he also has more complex ones for those who want to daytrade fast & furious!).  He just did a web presentation for Options University on these simple proprietary indicators which should be available for the next few days at least: 
http://www.options-university.com/Webinars/DavidElliott/index.html

I watched it last night & it reminded me again of how important it is to enter your trade at the right time ... like in real estate, you make your profit when you buy your house .. if you pay the right price. 

In any case, it's up to each of us to manage our own account .. those with small accounts need to be stricter than those blessed with large ones .. the latter can often just set & forget because they can weather the downtrends.  But I think we would all make more money faster if we factored chart timing and market timing into the purchase decision ..
there are times when it may be better to just be in cash .. waiting for the next good entry points to set up.

Maybe others would like to share their favorite timing indicators in the General discussion.   

Applause, TraderStar. I agree with you 100%, and that is what I always wanted from the site. Watch the market leading, fundamentally superior stocks, but only buy when time is right such as when breaking out of sound base on volume and other indicators  (possibly buying while still basing, before a breakout or buying at other strategic points )instead of buying overextended and hoping for the best. There is also no reason to hold when everything points to a large decline or if the trade just doesn't work out. There's nothing wrong with being in cash for awhile while awaiting another trade, there will always be more. Other things to consider are the overall market, and sector performance, what are performing best-large,mid,or small cap. I do have to commend David for outperforming the Russell 2000 this year so far. Didn't mean to be too critical of him, and I know he works hard and is well intentioned. It's just that the site is not fulfilling my expectations for trading and learning tthe technical side.

Anyway, I really hope something constructive comes from this discussion, GL to all. I think I get cut off today.

Quote from: BigSully1 on August 10, 2007, 01:34:00 AM

Quote from: TraderStar on August 09, 2007, 11:50:13 PM
Guess I will add my 2 cents here :-) 

I've rarely encountered anyone with more savvy than David in picking small cap stocks with potential to give big returns.
But the timing for entry ... often has room for improvement. 
Much of the time it's like .. "I've found another good one, let's buy on open tomorrow".
And the chart is screaming ... "not yet!!" 

Picking winning stocks may be the most important component of wealth-building, but it is not the only one.  There are 2 others:  timing of entry and timing the market.
Since the Dow hit 14k, there were numerous signs of failure at least in the short term.  Profits should have been taken in all holdings and new entries postponed until the best setups once again present themselves.
NGA for example ...why not exit at the first close below the 50 sma .. or the second one at latest... then sit back in the weeds & watch.  The market fell apart & so did NGA.  Now it just bounced on its 200 sma, so maybe there's a new entry down here ..
Take profits at $9 and re-invest at $5.64 with a really tight stop .. what's wrong with that? 

I think it would work out better to be trading these great picks ..  not just buy & blindly hold on, come what may.

You don't need charts that look like the blueprints for the New York subway system 
... just a couple of moving averages, stochastics, volume .. a few simple indicators are enough because we already know the stocks are fundamentally sound and will eventually run ... like TBSI for example

David Elliott of Wall Street Teachers is an excellent market timer and has some basic technical timing indicators he uses (he also has more complex ones for those who want to daytrade fast & furious!).  He just did a web presentation for Options University on these simple proprietary indicators which should be available for the next few days at least: 
http://www.options-university.com/Webinars/DavidElliott/index.html

I watched it last night & it reminded me again of how important it is to enter your trade at the right time ... like in real estate, you make your profit when you buy your house .. if you pay the right price. 

In any case, it's up to each of us to manage our own account .. those with small accounts need to be stricter than those blessed with large ones .. the latter can often just set & forget because they can weather the downtrends.  But I think we would all make more money faster if we factored chart timing and market timing into the purchase decision ..
there are times when it may be better to just be in cash .. waiting for the next good entry points to set up.

Maybe others would like to share their favorite timing indicators in the General discussion.   

Applause, TraderStar. I agree with you 100%, and that is what I always wanted from the site. Watch the market leading, fundamentally superior stocks, but only buy when time is right such as when breaking out of sound base on volume and other indicators  (possibly buying while still basing, before a breakout or buying at other strategic points )instead of buying overextended and hoping for the best. There is also no reason to hold when everything points to a large decline or if the trade just doesn't work out. There's nothing wrong with being in cash for awhile while awaiting another trade, there will always be more. Other things to consider are the overall market, and sector performance, what are performing best-large,mid,or small cap. I do have to commend David for outperforming the Russell 2000 this year so far. Didn't mean to be too critical of him, and I know he works hard and is well intentioned. It's just that the site is not fulfilling my expectations for trading and learning tthe technical side.

Anyway, I really hope something constructive comes from this discussion, GL to all. I think I get cut off today.

I absolutely agree - better timing is necessary to earn money and stop loss too.

Quote from: TraderStar on August 09, 2007, 11:50:13 PM
Guess I will add my 2 cents here :-) 

I've rarely encountered anyone with more savvy than David in picking small cap stocks with potential to give big returns.
But the timing for entry ... often has room for improvement. 
Much of the time it's like .. "I've found another good one, let's buy on open tomorrow".
And the chart is screaming ... "not yet!!" 

Picking winning stocks may be the most important component of wealth-building, but it is not the only one.  There are 2 others:  timing of entry and timing the market.
Since the Dow hit 14k, there were numerous signs of failure at least in the short term.  Profits should have been taken in all holdings and new entries postponed until the best setups once again present themselves.
NGA for example ...why not exit at the first close below the 50 sma .. or the second one at latest... then sit back in the weeds & watch.  The market fell apart & so did NGA.  Now it just bounced on its 200 sma, so maybe there's a new entry down here ..
Take profits at $9 and re-invest at $5.64 with a really tight stop .. what's wrong with that? 

I think it would work out better to be trading these great picks ..  not just buy & blindly hold on, come what may.

You don't need charts that look like the blueprints for the New York subway system 
... just a couple of moving averages, stochastics, volume .. a few simple indicators are enough because we already know the stocks are fundamentally sound and will eventually run ... like TBSI for example

David Elliott of Wall Street Teachers is an excellent market timer and has some basic technical timing indicators he uses (he also has more complex ones for those who want to daytrade fast & furious!).  He just did a web presentation for Options University on these simple proprietary indicators which should be available for the next few days at least: 
http://www.options-university.com/Webinars/DavidElliott/index.html

I watched it last night & it reminded me again of how important it is to enter your trade at the right time ... like in real estate, you make your profit when you buy your house .. if you pay the right price. 

In any case, it's up to each of us to manage our own account .. those with small accounts need to be stricter than those blessed with large ones .. the latter can often just set & forget because they can weather the downtrends.  But I think we would all make more money faster if we factored chart timing and market timing into the purchase decision .. there are times when it may be better to just be in cash .. waiting for the next good entry points to set up.

Maybe others would like to share their favorite timing indicators in the General discussion.   

TraderStar

I totally agree with you ... You'er reading my mind 
Charts are very important for a winning trade ... if there's a good stock with a temperarily bearish chart what not wait and get it cheaper when it becomes bullish ?

This is the way I'm doing my trades and I have a good experience I can help with that why not .. 
we work as a team to improve and protect our money ...

I trust David and he's doing great job and he's spending alot of time uptading and finding  stocks , but sometimes small mistakes could ruin it all ..
Let's share our knowledge and team up , we'er on the same boat ...

I've just read the posts on this thread. Actually I've been refusing to look to how many people canceled the 3 Stocks Premium service over the last couple of weeks, and who they are.

It has been tough enough to deal with the losses and come here to write everyday.

But over the weekend I'll cut off the access to everybody that canceled the service, by a matter of justice. I don't care if I have just 10 or 20 subscribers, for as long as there is one, I'll keep doing this service and dealing with whatever the market presents to me everyday.

BigSully1 was an important and valuable member to the 3 SOF Community, I feel sorry that he is leaving and wish him well. Perhaps he'll come back when the dust settles or when I'm able to push the Main back up again.

As for NGA, the stock had its first positive day in a while, and that happened while the general market was tanking. Fundamentally the stock is very attractive, in my personal view - it is trading at 7.8 times 2007 EPS.

And I'm telling you, that bridge accident will probably bring more demand to NGA's galvanizing and coatings services. The government needs to preserve its real estate assets, bridges can't fall. Property assets have so much value right now, no one is interested in seeing the value slip over the years. Preservation my friends.

Moreover, NGA is a $69 M market cap company. It's share price can turn on a dime.

I've ended my evaluation and thinking about NGA and I believe it is a valuable long term asset for the Main Portfolio which needs to be preserved. I'll hold NGA whatever happens.

David,

Nobody likes to see their portfolio drop 20% in a few days. It's too easy to point a finger during a period like this. I did have a feeling of euphoria each day as I watched my stocks grow. The market has just put me back in my place.We should all remember to only have invested in the market what you feel comfortable losing at any one time.

Love the service and staying!

basanlas

Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 07:12:36 AM
I've just read the posts on this thread. Actually I've been refusing to look to how many people canceled the 3 Stocks Premium service over the last couple of weeks, and who they are.

It has been tough enough to deal with the losses and come here to write everyday.

But over the weekend I'll cut off the access to everybody that canceled the service, by a matter of justice. I don't care if I have just 10 or 20 subscribers, for as long as there is one, I'll keep doing this service and dealing with whatever the market presents to me everyday.

the people should not been thrown out before.......from the last payment they have 30 days to go....so if someone cancelled yesterday they still have 29 days if they once started the service on day 9 of a month....

That is correct!!!  We are paying in advance for the service, so please either refund my money or allow me to be a member for the time I've already paid.

Thanks David... I will most likely be coming back... I just don't feel like buying anymore stocks right... just going to hold what I have and let the dust settle.

Good luck my friend and hang in there!!!  You are doing a great job... we just got unlucky... that's life and that's definitely the market.

-Josh

Quote from: ket1390 on August 10, 2007, 09:15:09 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 07:12:36 AM
I've just read the posts on this thread. Actually I've been refusing to look to how many people canceled the 3 Stocks Premium service over the last couple of weeks, and who they are.

It has been tough enough to deal with the losses and come here to write everyday.

But over the weekend I'll cut off the access to everybody that canceled the service, by a matter of justice. I don't care if I have just 10 or 20 subscribers, for as long as there is one, I'll keep doing this service and dealing with whatever the market presents to me everyday.

the people should not been thrown out before.......from the last payment they have 30 days to go....so if someone cancelled yesterday they still have 29 days if they once started the service on day 9 of a month....

A friend of mine, who is very laid back kinda guy, once asked me how my investing was going on. At that time I was up 60% (last year during the big run up). He said, "when you're 100% up, let me know, I'll consider joining you". I spend a lot of time and nerve reading, thinking here and he just want to play if I prove to him it works. Well, I decided, I will not tell him when I make that 100%, although he is my friend. Trust and confidence are important. Market is a game. You can't stop playing soccer because it started to rain. Today there is rain on the market, what will there be tomorrow?...

And if you have been paying for the service out of your gains and they are no longer there, well, ask David for a break, perhaps he'd keep you as a client.

First, I have to say that David is doing an excellent job.  This downturn is no more than a slight bump on the road over the long run.   I for one will let David continue his job.  With that said, David, I think you said that it is matter of justice to cut off those people who cancelled their subscription.  I truly believe DragonAMG is correct in that it is also a matter of justice to refund their money for the remaining time or to keep their membership alive until their time runs out.

I for one will not cancel my subscription because I believe this site has incredible value.  If I can get an average of 10% to 15% return over a year, it is worth staying.

Quote from: DragonAMG on August 10, 2007, 10:14:41 AM
That is correct!!!  We are paying in advance for the service, so please either refund my money or allow me to be a member for the time I've already paid.

Thanks David... I will most likely be coming back... I just don't feel like buying anymore stocks right... just going to hold what I have and let the dust settle.

Good luck my friend and hang in there!!!  You are doing a great job... we just got unlucky... that's life and that's definitely the market.

-Josh

Thanks for your comments and support during this difficult period

QuoteFirst, I have to say that David is doing an excellent job.  This downturn is no more than a slight bump on the road over the long run. I for one will not cancel my subscription because I believe this site has incredible value.  If I can get an average of 10% to 15% return over a year, it is worth staying.

Thanks for staying tri-iam, I believe we'll achieve more than 10%-15% a year, on average. On a very good year, say a year the S&P rises 20%, I'll expect to earn no less than 50%.

The Main Portfolio is up 8% so far in 2007 with 4.5 months to go, against 2.5% for the S&P 500 and 0% for the Russel 2000 Index. Anyway, 8% is well below my expectation for the year, especially when considering the Main was up 27% just a while back.

QuoteWith that said, David, I think you said that it is matter of justice to cut off those people who cancelled their subscription.  I truly believe DragonAMG is correct in that it is also a matter of justice to refund their money for the remaining time or to keep their membership alive until their time runs out.

Of course, the people that still have subscription time will remain with access until that time expires.

As for NGA, it took a couple of days more, but the 10-11% one day rally finally came.

Fundamentally and thinking about the long term future for this company, I see rising demand for the company's services, which are mainly directed to the following industries:



Now read the following article, on the aftermath of the Mississippi bridge collapse:

Ageing infrastructure under scrutiny after bridge collapse

I see many billions coming for infrastructure preservation and NGA is an industry leader, with ten facilities across the USA.

NGA is just a $77 M market cap company, trading at roughly 8.7 times earnings.

I'll continue holding NGA for the long term.

NGA rose 8.9% and is back into its descending channel. I guess the technical formation lost validity with this move. As investors become a bit more calm and searched for undervalued stocks, certainly NGA popped on their "severely undervalued" list.

I'll keep holding NGA.

Nothing new on NGA yesterday, I'll keep holding it.

NGA fell 6.1% yesterday, but nothing changed from a technical or fundamental perspective. The company is still growing very rapidly and trading at 8.5 times earnings and I find that extremely attractive from a fundamental standpoint.

Strange, I thought NGA had closed positive as I was watching yesterday's closing action. NGA, $72 M market cap, projected 2007 revenue at $92 M, EPS at $0.72, growing 84% from the year ago level and trading at 8 times earnings.

I see increasing demand for the company's services as the government looks to preserve its infra-structural assets, like highways, bridges, power grids, etc. I wonder why NGA doesn't expand overseas, to China for example, I'm sure there's a lot of demand for galvanizing and coating services there.

NGA is the sole pure North American play in the Main Portfolio. I'll keep holding the stock.