3SOF

Thanks Tokyo and likewise, I appreciate and learned alot from you.

Quote from: tokyopua on August 16, 2007, 12:01:20 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on August 15, 2007, 09:50:38 AM
Not sure about longer term, but I think we should see a bounce on the Dow around 12700 to 12800.  Tech should be OK till end of year.

Dow is down like 1000 points in 6 days, RSI is 31.6, quite oversold.  A bounce of some sort has to happen soon, at least it did in February when we hit this kind of situation.

Dunno what you guys think,  but that is what I was looking for in terms of a bounce!

looks like there will be a bounce tomorrow. The S&P 500 reversed very nice from a low of 1370 it closed at 1411.

VPHM will explode tomorrow nice finish there waited for 8.50 there we go

Well, I took my chances and bought more GIGM, IMMR, SWIR, NVTL, and GSB today.

JKN

I also made some heavy purchases yesterday and today. I made a very large purchase in NYX today. That stock is on sale and all this volatility is going to boost earnings!

The market, measured by the SPY, had its highest volume ever today, with 541 million shares changing hands.

Could it be that the current correction is over with a 12.2% top to bottom decline? Time will tell, but I figure the long term bull market will continue, and the setup is powerful for a run up to new all time highs in late 2007 or early 2008.

I'm not quite sure if the downturn is quite over yet.  Man does it feel like 1998.   Wow the volatility.

We'll probably rally for a couple of days.  But I would think we would trend lower to the lows from March at least, or the worse case senario we go to the 4 year trendline near 2200 for the Nasdaq.

Anyway I'll be ready to grab more of these growth stocks after big down days...and maybe by year's end we'll party like its 1999.

Global growth is here and it's not going anywhere.  I think we may actually see a global stock bubble in the works throughout 2008.  We'll see.

Hi Guys,

I've just posted a Technical Analysis of the S&P-500:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10180.0

regards

just fyi:

1) nice daily video:
http://www.kingcambo.com/traders/897829

2)
Cara's Thurs. Report, Aug. 16, 2007, 9:25 AM

Market Chat

There is a wave of panic selling underway at this point that is looking like any primary technical support has failed. A Bear market has probably started. Stocks, however, are over-sold, and may be in for a bounce. [ADDENDUM]

Just as likely is an October 1987 Black Monday scenario.

Yesterday, the Major US equity indexes closed at fresh 4-month lows with more losses in the DJIA (-1.57 pct to 12861), S&P 500 Index (-1.39 pct to 1406.7), Nasdaq Composite (-1.61 pct), and Russell 2000 small caps (-1.49 pct to 751.54). The average loss was actually less than the previous day, but the succession of losses, and the timing of the day-ending sell-off is what is worrying traders.

Overnight, the Asia-Pacific equity markets showed a degree of selling panic, as did the European markets earlier today.

Yesterday's biggest losers were: Energy (XLE -2.75 pct) and Basic Materials (XLB -2.51 pct). Cramer used the Deflation word last evening. I don't see it. What I do see is a withdrawal of capital from markets, starting months ago in the Financials (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary Spending (XLY) and now moving to the commodity price sensitive sectors. The biggest loser on the day was the $XAU goldminers group, which lost -4.25 pct to 132.45. Reports attribute the losses to the wind-up of the Carry Trade and the strength of the Yen. I don't believe it. The gold bullion is remaining firm as the Yen strengthens. The sell-ff in stocks is from failing hedge funds and margin calls in retail accounts that are moving to cash by selling what the owners/managers of the capital consider their highest risk. Fundamentally, with bullion prices and corp earnings, however, and the over-extended rise of the $USD (against the Euro, Pound sterling, Cdn and Aussie Dollars), leads me to believe there will be be a recovery in the miners.

By not closing put writes, the severe drop this week has resulted in gold stocks being put to those traders who got caught in the downdraft. However, unlike the put writes for stocks in many other sectors, which were closed earlier, there is a fundamental basis of holding onto the best quality goldminer stocks.

In any event, as Jim Cramer and others say, we all can see prices falling, it is important to look for ways to avoid the most damage. Anybody who no longer feels comfortable should not be holding stocks. In fact, they should have gone to cash as a primary strategy as I suggested some time ago.

International Economics Review

The US market has driven short rates down faster and further in a day or two than I can remember. I believe that the G-20 central banker liquidity injections will continue until Euro LIBOR and Bankers Acceptance rates come off their 52-week highs. This is an emergency situation, and with respect to the key econ data that is being released this week, the capital market is presently focused almost entirely on credit collapse; hence the G-20 is the party with the answers the market is looking for. Yesterday, there was much new econ data to consider, some of it very positive, but traders happen to be focused at this point on emotion.
The US headline CPI (+0.1 pct) and Core CPI (+0.2 pct) met consensus estimates. The numbers are considered good. New York's Empire State Manufacturing index dropped down to 25.1 in August from 26.5 in July, but much better than the anticipated 17.75.
The Department of Energy reported US crude oil inventories fell by -5.2 million barrels, Gasoline inventories fell by -1.1 million barrels, and distillates (heating oil and diesel fuel) fell by -1.1 million barrels. The numbers reflect continuing levels of econ growth.
US industrial production for July increased +0.3 pct, resulting from a drop in utilities, while capacity use lifted to 81.9 pct. The June net foreign buying of long-maturity US securities was $107.0 billion in June, down from May's $112.5 billion, so apparently there is still strong demand.
The NAHB housing market index for August sales of new, single-family homes decreased to 22 from July's level of 24, which had been the lowest level since January 1991.

Breaking News:

Fed declares "downside risks" to economy have increased, OKs half percentage point cut in discount rate on loans to banks.

Quote from: realcoolhead on August 17, 2007, 08:26:48 AM
Breaking News:

Fed declares "downside risks" to economy have increased, OKs half percentage point cut in discount rate on loans to banks.

The FED is a friend of the bulls now. If the problem is credit, easing interest rates will surely help. This move in the discount rate opens the door for cutting the federal funds rate as early as in the next meeting in September, perhaps with a 50 basis point rate cut.

There will be a massive short covering today, let's hope the market holds or builds upon the higher open. I remember the day when the FED cut interest rates by surprise in 2001 and the Nasdaq rose 14% on the day. But it was an intraday rate cut, I think it works much better than while the market is closed, Bernanke still needs to learn a few tricks from Greenspan

14%? That would put NASDAQ to new high in 07 ... 

Quote from: David Randolph on August 17, 2007, 08:44:59 AM

Quote from: realcoolhead on August 17, 2007, 08:26:48 AM
Breaking News:

Fed declares "downside risks" to economy have increased, OKs half percentage point cut in discount rate on loans to banks.

The FED is a friend of the bulls now. If the problem is credit, easing interest rates will surely help. This move in the discount rate opens the door for cutting the federal funds rate as early as in the next meeting in September, perhaps with a 50 basis point rate cut.

There will be a massive short covering today, let's hope the market holds or builds upon the higher open. I remember the day when the FED cut interest rates by surprise in 2001 and the Nasdaq rose 14% on the day. But it was an intraday rate cut, I think it works much better than while the market is open, Bernanke still needs to learn a few tricks from Greenspan

Things calmed down from that explosive opening, but its options expiration today, so we could get back to that 300 point plus upside on the dow at the end of trading still.

CNBC now talking about how the Fed was clearly trying to hit the bears in the dutch tender parts because the ETF options losses were immediate for many people and it probably took out entire hedge funds in one fell swoop as ETF options expiry is at market open .  This would not have been the case if they announced at 3:30 PM, which is the options expiry for individual stocks (from what I understand now). 

Quote from: David Randolph on August 17, 2007, 08:44:59 AM

Quote from: realcoolhead on August 17, 2007, 08:26:48 AM
Breaking News:

Fed declares "downside risks" to economy have increased, OKs half percentage point cut in discount rate on loans to banks.

The FED is a friend of the bulls now. If the problem is credit, easing interest rates will surely help. This move in the discount rate opens the door for cutting the federal funds rate as early as in the next meeting in September, perhaps with a 50 basis point rate cut.

There will be a massive short covering today, let's hope the market holds or builds upon the higher open. I remember the day when the FED cut interest rates by surprise in 2001 and the Nasdaq rose 14% on the day. But it was an intraday rate cut, I think it works much better than while the market is closed, Bernanke still needs to learn a few tricks from Greenspan

How did you feel about the action Friday, David?  Cramer had been on in the morning predicting the largest point move in Dow history.  Later he said that because Japan had been down 5.42% overnight that the Fed move saved us from a 500 point decline Friday and another one Monday.

A lot of people are now saying that you cant get in front of the Fed, that it will bulldoze the shorts.   Of course, there are also the permabears citing things like 9 trillion dollars in hedge funds with only 1.5 trillion dollars in actual assets (i.e. that they are leveraged), the death of the american consumer as mortgages reset, etc.   

Anyway, I think this puts us mostly back on a level playing field if not back into straight out bullish action for awhile, Im interested in what others here think now.

I'm keepeing a low profile until things settle down.
I was going to start buying again last friday but changed my mind mainly
because of the imbalance of hedge funds vs. actual assets in a highly volatile
market.
The attached chart of the volatility index - last 10 years, is self explanatory
regarding  risk/reward posssibilities.