3SOF

this are the reasons why we are invested in NVTL 
cheers
Oliver

presentation for downloading, summarization & chart 

all the best 

Awesome presentation, thanks for bringing it to our attention la-onda (applaud)

I especially enjoyed the second slide, showing the expected unit shipments growth with a 53% CAGR between 2006 and 2012

Technically NVTL continues to consolidate within the $19.91 - $23.26 range. I expect the stock to move towards $30 plus by year's end.

I wonder if "decreasing operational costs" and "leveraging business model for continuous growth" ...



... means "operating margin will expand". That would be great and would surely help the stock make another bull run.

I'll keep holding NVTL.

I wonder how big this competition is to NVTL and SWIR...

http://www.digifon.ca/index.php

They make USB modems as well, I guess, judging at their website. It seems after the numerous downgrades and the market jitters NVTL has been very sluggish. It has moved against SWIR, which was boosted by the positive comments. Should we protect our gain somehow if NVTL should break an important technical ground on the downside? Especially if the stocks continues sliding while the tech market moves up?

QuoteI wonder how big this competition is to NVTL and SWIR...

http://www.digifon.ca/index.php

They make USB modems as well, I guess, judging at their website.

In every industry there are competitive threats, however NVTL is the market leader and it will benefit the most from the market's expansion:

QuoteIt seems after the numerous downgrades and the market jitters NVTL has been very sluggish. It has moved against SWIR, which was boosted by the positive comments.

Well, yesterday NVTL rose 7.5%, against 2.7% for SWIR and 1.16% for the S&P 500, so I guess your worries have subsided now.

QuoteShould we protect our gain somehow if NVTL should break an important technical ground on the downside? Especially if the stocks continues sliding while the tech market moves up?

"Protection" was what got me out of SILC with an horrible timing. "Protection" could have thrown me out of GIGM below $10. My take is you can't protect, you either believe fundamentals or you don't. "Protection" given by stop losses or trailing stop losses is an illusion  in my current view (I thought differently a few years ago).

Hold for as long as you trust the fundamentals and sell when you don't trust them anymore, regardless of your buying price. Don't let the market tell you what to do about your investments, or else you won't be thinking about your investments, but thinking about what others are thinking, not knowing what you're doing and getting very confused in the process. You be the judge.

NVTL did very well yesterday, even making a bullish breakout of a possible short term descending trendline. A bullish breakout of the $23.26 resistance level is within reach.

I trust the 53% CAGR projected for the company's products, between 2006 and 2012. I'll continue holding NVTL for the long term.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 23, 2007, 05:49:39 AM

Hold for as long as you trust the fundamentals and sell when you don't trust them anymore, regardless of your buying price. Don't let the market tell you what to do about your investments, or else you won't be thinking about your investments, but thinking about what others are thinking, not knowing what you're doing and getting very confused in the process. You be the judge.

Hello Board Members,

I think David is hitting the nail right on the head, and I believe that brokers play a game with the general public. Look back at 10/26/06 last year, when Morgan Joseph, the same broker that covers NVTL now, had this to say:

<<NEW YORK, October 26 - Analysts at Morgan Joseph reiterate their "buy" rating on Novatel Wireless Inc (NVTL), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from $17 to $15.

In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company has issued robust revenue guidance for 4Q06 of $61-$63 million on account of impressive execution on new product introductions. There is limited upside potential to Novatel Wireless' gross margins in the near term on account of increased product launch costs and component shortages, the analysts add. The EPS estimates for 2006 and 2007 have been reduced from $0.03 to -$0.04 and from $0.24 to $0.17, respectively.>>

This was the day that the current bull run in NVTL started - when the stock closed at $8.44!! LOL  The "analyst" reduced his estimate for 2007 to $0.17 !!! Give me a break!

What the brokers do is downgrade their recommendation, tell their customers to load up, then release another "analysis" with a "buy" recommendation - so that the general public pushes up the shares that their clients loaded up on.

What did we hear from the same firm earlier this month on 8/8/07 - when the stock closed at $22.06?

<<NEW YORK, August 8 - Analyst Kevin Dede of Morgan Joseph maintains his "hold" rating on Novatel Wireless Inc (NVTL), while raising his estimates for the company.

In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company has posted robust 2Q results, with sales and non-GAAP EPS ahead of expectations. Novatel Wireless has issued healthy sales guidance for FY07 at $415-$425 million. The analyst believes that the company’s bullish guidance was driven by the HSUPA sales in Europe, the improving sales of embedded modems and continued robustness in the Ev-Do sales in North America. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been raised from $1.20 to $1.28. >>

He RAISED estimates, but not his recommendation.... Despite the fact that the industry will grow 6X to 8X in the next 5 years, and NVTL has more than 50% market share in the Embedded Modules Segment - the segment that will most likely have the most growth.

How Fitting! Now, let's wait until the stock runs up 50%, then release another "analysis" for the general public consumption.

Wait, let me guess, it will be a "Strong Buy" when the stock is trading at $30-35..... and History repeats itself again!

Dont Believe the Hype People. Be Smart - Buy NVTL and SWIR before they reach $50!

Best of Luck to all Longs!!

Bourbon 

Thanks a lot for your retrospective analysis on NVTL Bourbon. It goes to show the remarkable fundamental improvement the company had in a short period of time:

QuoteThis was the day that the current bull run in NVTL started - when the stock closed at $8.44!! LOL  The "analyst" reduced his estimate for 2007 to $0.17 !!! Give me a break!

They thought $0.17, now we know it will be more than $1 (the company's guidance is about $1.07). When they thought $0.17, as you say the stock was at $8.44. The forward earnings multiple back then was 50. Now it is 22, so the stock is actually much cheaper now relative to perceived fundamentals.

And what if instead of the $1.2 EPS analysts estimate for 2008, the company earns $2 or more? That has been the fundamental trend. As you say, the stock would approach $50.

Technically we closed yesterday right at resistance. I don't know if the stock will breakout or not but I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

just fyi:
NVTL: Short Interest UP 19.4% to 8.7M in Aug 2007
Friday , August 24, 2007 16:19ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Novatel Wireless Inc (NasdaqNM: NVTL) INCREASED 19.4% to 8,657,012 shares for the month ended mid-August, 2007.

SYMBOL        JULY          AUGUST          CHANGE       %CHANGE        DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
NVTL           7,251,835       8,657,012      +1,405,177       +19.38%           5

Based on NVTL's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,848,325, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


chart:

Here's a little technical update for NVTL:
Friday's session was not very volatile but NVTL manage to close above the $23.26 resistance, top of the recent trading range. Looking to the DMI, momentum is improving and taking in consideration the recent breakouts (descending line plus $23.26 plus ema-50) we may watch a further upside continuation in the short term.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold NVTL

Best regards,

Chart Update:
A Negative session for NVTL which is trading below the $23.26 resistance again. At this reference level it's normal to watch a step back, especially with also a negative session for the general market.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold NVTL

Regards,

Chart update:
With today's market action NVTL had no chance to retest the resistance level and is now once again below the EMA-50.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold NVTL

Regards,

Chart update:
NVTL is testing the resistance once again, and closing above the EMA-50. If we have a continuation candle we may see some upside soon

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold NVTL

Regards,

Quote from: Garoh on August 01, 2007, 09:01:30 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on August 01, 2007, 05:46:10 PM

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on August 01, 2007, 03:38:45 PM
Hi Gang:

Someone bought $10 Million (500k) shares of NVTL and 300k shares of SWIR right before 3pm today! I decided to pick up some more shares too.

Nothing has changed with these stocks at all over the past 2 weeks, except for the analysts comments, which we have seen are WAY off....

What a Tremendous Buying Opportunity here!!!!

Good Luck and Happy Trading

Bourbon 

I agree Bourbon

My take is NVTL is so good that a lot of influent people wanted to get in, but of course, because they have the power to shake weak hands, they took advantage of it and managed to get shares at a deep discount.

I don't remember paying anything to JP Morgan, for example, for advice on NVTL. And they're not JP Morgan by providing services for free. For the people that paid attention to their ridiculous research, there will be a price to pay, when they buy back their shares above $30.

This is my view of what is happening, but I can be wrong.

Anyway, NVTL is trading at about 1.5 times 2007 revenue, while it is growing revenues by about 100%. I don't think the revenue growth will stop, in fact, I think demand for the company's products is just starting to get traction. In a couple of years from now everybody will have mobile internet, instead of fixed internet, pretty much like the transition we've had from the fixed lines to the mobile phones.

The candlestick today was encouraging, despite the 3.2% fall.

I remain confident in NVTL's fundamentals (I wish they can expand net profit margin from the 8% level, that would increase its value a lot) and I expect the stock to close 2007 comfortably above $30.

You'er definitely right David ...

Here in Kuwait more than 70% are using the mobile internet but the most popular aircards are Sierra's cards ..

Anyway .. I really expected NVTL to drop to at least $21.36 but it went further to $19.91 when it hit the Gap support today .. I knew this just when it broke the 25.62 but sometimes you can't imagine that a stronge stock can go down 30% in a week just because of a small downgrade 

for now I found out about an interesting thing .. look at the weekly chart below . are we going to make a cup with a handle ?
we can see it created a handle a long time ago on the left and went like a rock down almost lost 75% 
and then it stayed in a tight range for one year and a half before it's broken up to a new all time high ...

Now it's forming the handle on the right side and the bottom was today at $19.91 probably will take a month or a little bit more to finish it .. after that the stock will shoot to the stars for at least $49 in a few months 

I could be wrong but technically it's very possible and David's fundmental analysis is supporting what I'm saying ...

we just need to wait and see ...

Hi
Look at this post Reply #236 on: 02 August 2007

look at the weekly chart I drew .. it looks like it is forming the handle now 

I still this would be the case and we'll see high prices in the medium term ...
I also bought Call options for January 2008 strike 30  .. it's a good chance for at least 400% profit 

Ramsburg  you'er doing great work ... thanks

QuoteI also bought Call options for January 2008 strike 30  .. it's a good chance for at least 400% profit

Hi Garoh, I'm quite bullish on NVTL but I wouldn't buy and will never buy or sell options again, because they're too risky and I believe everybody loses in that game over the long term. Anyway, good luck

Since my last update there weren't any news out or any new technical developments. I'll keep my focus on the following projection ...



... and will continue holding NVTL for the long term.