3SOF

Chart update:
The chart is not looking so good right now, but we still can't draw an effective technical layout for the short term. In any case, I don't see much downside potential at this point, and I expect another attempt to break the EMA-200 anytime soon.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold JAKK

Regards,

Thanks for these technical updates on my absence Ramsburg

JAKK is a bit below where it was when I left for a one week vacations period. There weren't any news out.

I think my latest update still says it all about JAKK:

Quote from: David Randolph on August 24, 2007, 05:29:56 AM
Until there are more earnings news investors will probably have "JAKK missed the quarterly estimates" on their heads and nothing will make it approach $30. Anyway, I'm confident the 2nd half will be at least as good as expected by the company's management, and that will be enough to put it at $30. If the numbers turn out being better than expected, the $35-$40 range will be within reach.

I love the company's products, especially Hannah Montana and Plug it in & Play TV games, which I think will be a huge success this Christmas. I'll patiently keep holding JAKK.

I'll patiently keep holding JAKK.

I hope these news on Mattel recall do not have a negative effect on JAKK...

Mattel Recalls 800,000 Lead-Tainted Toys
Wednesday September 5, 6:15 am ET
By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer 
Mattel, the World's Largest Toy Maker, Recalls 800,000 More Toys Because of Lead Paint
NEW YORK (AP) -- Mattel Inc.'s reputation took another hit after the world's largest toy maker announced a third major recall of Chinese-made toys in little more than a month because of excessive amounts of lead paint.
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The latest action, which involved about 800,000 toys and which was announced late Tuesday, is yet another blow to Mattel. The news, along with other recent recalls of tainted Chinese toys from other toy makers, could also make parents even more nervous about shopping for toys this holiday season.

The latest Mattel recall, whose details were negotiated by the Consumer Product Safety Commission, covers 675,000 Barbie accessories sold between October 2006 and August of this year. No Barbie dolls were included in the action.

The recall also included 90,000 units of Mattel's GeoTrax locomotive line and about 8,900 Big Big World 6-in-1 Bongo Band toys, both from the company's Fisher-Price brand. The Big Big World products were sold nationwide from July through August of this year, while the GeoTrax toys were sold from September 2006 through August of this year.

Mattel's last recall, announced on Aug. 14, covered about 19 million toys worldwide. They included Chinese-made toys that either had excessive amounts of lead paint or had small magnets that could easily be swallowed by children.

On Aug. 1, Mattel's Fisher-Price division said it was recalling 1.5 million preschool toys featuring characters such as Dora the Explorer, Big Bird and Elmo because of lead paint. That action included 967,000 toys sold in the United States between May and August.

Robert Eckert, chairman and chief executive of El Segundo, Calif.-based Mattel, warned at a press conference last month that there may be more recalls of tainted toys as the company steps up its investigations into its Chinese factories and increases monitoring of production.

In a statement issued late Tuesday, Eckert said: "As a result of our ongoing investigation, we discovered additional affected products. Consequently, several subcontractors are no longer manufacturing Mattel toys. We apologize again to everyone affected and promise that we will continue to focus on ensuring the safety and quality of our toys."

Mattel added that it has completed its testing program for the majority of its toys and spent more than 50,000 hours investigating its vendors and testing its toys over the past four-week period.

Still, Mattel, which has cultivated an image of tightly controlling production in China, could face an uphill battle convincing consumers about the safety of its products this holiday season. The CPSC is also considering a possible investigation of whether Mattel notified authorities as quickly as it should have in connection with the Aug. 14 recall.

With more than 80 percent of toys sold worldwide made in China, toy sellers are also concerned shoppers will shy away from their products in this year's holiday season.

In June, toy maker RC2 Corp. voluntarily recalled 1.5 million wooden railroad toys and set parts from its Thomas & Friends Wooden Railway product line. The company said the surface paint on certain toys and parts made in China between January 2005 and April 2006 contains lead, affecting 26 components and 23 retailers.

In July, Hasbro Inc. recalled faulty Chinese-made Easy Bake ovens, marking the second time the iconic toy had been recalled this year.

A Chinese quality official said Wednesday that the country is investigating the latest recall.

Wang Xin, an official with the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection, and Quarantine, said the agency, which oversees all products made in China, is trying to get details on when the toys were made and the manufacturers involved.

Mattel vowed as recently as last month it would tighten its controls at factories in China. About 65 percent of the company's toys are made in China, and about 50 percent of Mattel's production there is produced in company-owned plants.

The recalled toys in the Barbie accessory line included a Barbie Dream Puppy House, which had lead paint on the dog; a Barbie Dream Kitty Condo playset, which had lead paint on the cat; and a Barbie table and chairs kitchen playset, which had lead paint on the dog and dinner plates.

Mattel said in a statement that the Barbie products affected by the recall were produced by Holder Plastic Company, a Mattel contract vendor, which subcontracted the painting of miniature toy pets and small furniture pieces to Dong Lian Fa and Yip Sing. Both companies used uncertified paint and are no longer producing toys for Mattel, the company said.

Mattel added that its probe revealed that the subcontractors painted the affected toys between March 2007 and August 2007. However, Mattel said it's being cautious in recalling the entire production of the seven toys painted by the subcontractors, and toys made beginning in October 2006 are included within the recall.

Among the three Fisher-Price toys recalled are two GeoTrax toys and a toy from the Big Big World line.

The two GeoTrax toys were made by Apex Manufacturing Company Ltd., one of Mattel's contract vendors, which outsourced paint work to a subcontractor, Boyi Plastic Products Factory. Apex supplied Boyi with certified paint; however, the toys were made with uncertified paint. Boyi is no longer in business, Mattel said.

The GeoTrax toys were manufactured between July 31, 2006, and September 4, 2006; however, the painted parts were stored and incorporated into toy production throughout the year. Mattel said it is recalling toys shipped between August 3, 2006, and July 31 of this year.

Fisher-Price's Big Big World toy was manufactured by Shun On Factory, one of Mattel's contract vendors, which outsourced the molding and painting of one plastic piece. A subcontractor, Jingying Tampo Printing Processing Factory, used uncertified paint on the recalled piece.

Hi berloga, thanks for posting the news. Mattel (MAT) even closed higher yesterday, after the lower open, despite the negative news. It seems they're priced in.

JAKK didn't make any recall announcement, at least not yet, let's hope we won't have one.

There weren't any news or technical developments for JAKK yesterday, I'll keep holding the stock.

The "JAKK missed the quarter" mentality, from which BigSully1 did very well profiting, is keeping JAKK down.

I maintain that the 2nd quarter is almost irrelevant in the bigger scheme of things of this company for two primary reasons:

1) Most sales happen in the 2nd half, with the 4th quarter being the strongest;

2) The company's biggest bet for the year, the Hannah Montana dolls and related products, weren't yet for sale in 2nd quarter.

I expect the 2nd half to be stronger than expected and JAKK to close 2007 above $30. 

Fundamentally nothing changed in JAKK over the weekend. The stock declined a bit on Friday, but it didn't change the technical picture, which is neutral in my view. I'll keep holding JAKK.

JAKK's chart turned from neutral to bearish, but you know I don't care about the chart, not anymore. I believe the company's pipeline is strong enough for it to meet or exceed management's guidance of $800 M revenue and $2.39 EPS for 2007, and that would certainly put the stock in the $30 area.

I'll keep holding JAKK, despite the technical weakness. A gap up on good news, perhaps leaving an island on the chart, is my expectation for the future.

JAKK is such a marvelous company, it is a shame it is valued at just 9 times earnings. Look at their exciting new Plug it in & Play TV game:

• JAKKS Pacific(R) to Produce Plug It In & Play TV Games(TM) Based on 'Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader?'(TM) Game Show
PR Newswire (Tue 6:00am)

I already know what I'm going to give my little nephews and cousins this Christmas, and it's going to be Plug it in & Play TV games (I'll make sure I'll give myself some too). I don't know about you, but I like simple games ... PlayStation, with all those menu's and options, annoy me. And my 4 year old son, even though he can play the games quite well, he always needs me to go through all the horrible menus before the game ... "dad, dad", well, in his case it is more "pai, pai, vem cá pôr-me o jogo"

And this way of making games with popular TV shows themes, more for the adult public ... is just great to play with your family.

And what about the chart, looking a bit better today, huh? That thing keeps changing and knows little about the future. I would like to make money over the long term by just drawing a few lines ... but I believe it takes a lot more than that.

I'll hold JAKK for the long term.

JAKK continues to invest to diversify its business:

• JAKKS Pacific(R) Signs 'Mr. Men and Little Miss' Licensing Agreement in Lifestyle for 'Tweens
PR Newswire (Thu, Sep 13)

Considering the many exciting new products JAKK has, I think it is wrong to value the company at 10 times earnings, just because there's that litigation with WWE (which we've already seen is related just with certain Asian countries which represent less than 3% of JAKK's total sales).

So, I believe the stock is just cheap, at least 50% undervalued at this point. Now, what will it take to correct this market inefficiency? I think that if the stock is able to beat its own guidance of $800 M in revenue and $2.39 EPS for 2007 it will be enough, since the market is pricing in a disappointment, like it happened in 2006 and in Q2 2007 (an almost irrelevant quarter due to seasonality).

I'll keep holding JAKK. 

JAKK's CFO will be presenting at AG Edwards conference:

• JAKKS Pacific to Present at the A.G. Edwards' Emerging Growth Conference
Business Wire (Tue 6:00am)

It's interesting they're sending the CFO and not the CEO. Also, the conference will be webcast live. Maybe he'll reaffirm or even up guidance for the full year ... I'm sure JAKK's management isn't happy with the valuation of its stock, nor with the market's reaction to that slight miss in Q2 2007.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

Is justice starting to be made on JAKK? Well, a little, but for true justice JAKK should gap up and leave all the people that sold the stock after that irrelevant earnings miss alone in an island.

Perhaps the CFO will talk about the truth today when he speaks at the AG Edwards conference at 12:30 EST.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

JAKK continues to diversify its business:

• JAKKS Pacific Appeals to Little Girls' 'Inner Nancy' With a New Line Based on Fancy Nancy, the New York Times Bestselling Series From HarperCollins Publishers
PR Newswire (Thu 6:00am)

And, this was just out:

Pokemon heads hitless cast of U.S. holiday toys

"Pokemon is on fire. It's as hot as it's been in about 7 years and it's really the 'Diamond and Pearl' series," said Jim Silver, editor-in-chief of Toy Wishes magazine.

In fact I've been thinking why JAKK would want the Pokemon's rights, it seemed like a thing of the past. Now I know why they wanted it, because it is getting hot again

I think this is going to be the first season of Pokemon products for JAKK. More help for the second half.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

David, I don't know much at all about Hannah Montana, but just saw a newscast about the Disney live show near my hometown. There were huge lines waiting for tickets and were sold out within 3 minutes leaving many kids disappointed. Brokers are now selling the $25 tickets for as much as $1350.

Evidently Hannah Montana is a huge sensation and your tenacity will likely pay off, maybe big. I hope they make plenty of the toys so they don't run out too early pre-Christmas and I hope they don't wholesale them too cheaply, because the retail will likely be a huge markup if demand is what I think it will be.

I didn't think I would ever say this, but I bought some of it....maybe more later.

QuoteI didn't think I would ever say this, but I bought some of it....maybe more later.

That's magnificent BigSully1, congrats on your flexibility

QuoteDavid, I don't know much at all about Hannah Montana, but just saw a newscast about the Disney live show near my hometown. There were huge lines waiting for tickets and were sold out within 3 minutes leaving many kids disappointed. Brokers are now selling the $25 tickets for as much as $1350.

I don't know her either, but everybody says it's very hot ... JAKK's management speaks with great enthusiasm about Hannah Montana's related products at the conference calls and recently put out a press release on the issue:

• Hannah Montana(TM) and The Cheetah(TM) Girls Dolls Kick Off a Rockin' Holiday Season
PR Newswire (Mon, Aug 13)

QuoteEvidently Hannah Montana is a huge sensation and your tenacity will likely pay off, maybe big. I hope they make plenty of the toys so they don't run out too early pre-Christmas and I hope they don't wholesale them too cheaply, because the retail will likely be a huge markup if demand is what I think it will be.

Yeah, I hope JAKK makes things right and doesn't get too anxious to hand out its products at cheap prices. Another good thing about Hannah Montana and JAKK is that JAKK bought the licensing rights when she was still relatively unknown, at least that was what the CFO said at the AG Edwards conference, so probably it was a cheap contract.

Considering JAKK's pipeline of new products I would say WWE will lose a lot of its importance as a revenue and profit stream for the company. This means that lawsuit and the possibility of WWE and JAKK ending their relationship in 2009 is losing relevance (but I still think this final outcome is highly unlikely). And all this should lead to JAKK having an earnings multiple more in line with the toys industry, which is 23.3.

Now I've noticed that there are more analysts covering the stock, and they expect $2.46 EPS for JAKK in 2007, above the $2.39 EPS the company gave as guidance. Interesting.

I'll keep holding JAKK (welcome aboard BigSully1 )

JAKK went down 4.6% yesterday and it makes me sick because I don't understand it, there's no explanation from the fundamental side of the equation.

Only the chart can explain yesterday's action ... the stock touched the 50 days SMA resistance level and it went down on volume above average.

But you know, if the 50 days SMA is the reason why traders sold JAKK, they'll equally buy the stock when it closes above this moving average, currently at $23.9. Their hands shake as leafs in the wind.

I expect all this JAKK drama to end when the company reports 3rd quarter earnings and reaffirms or even raises its full year guidance. Then the stock will gap up and leave the $18 - $28 area as an island.

I'll keep holding JAKK.