3SOF

Quote from: Garoh on September 11, 2007, 10:55:06 AM
Yes it's very cheap ... it's very important not to close below 5.50 on weekly ..

Yep, I don't think that's going to happen ... I feel a 10% plus day is coming, perhaps today or tomorrow. I'll continue holding NGA.

QuoteYep, I don't think that's going to happen ... I feel a 10% plus day is coming, perhaps today or tomorrow.

I'm still waiting for that 10% one day rally. NGA has been building quite a base over the last few days ... perhaps it's going to be a 20% day!

Anyway, NGA is currently the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio. I've written NGA's fundamental case several times and yet the stock doesn't seem to respond to its, at least by me perceived, undervaluation.

When the stock starts running I guess it will flash on many people's screen that will run to buy, because, with simple math one can see the stock is trading at a deep discount. But, if we don't get this type of technical phenomenon, I guess just a positive earnings news can do the trick.

I think investors are bearish on NGA because they're negative on the US economy. But I'm moderately positive on the US's economic prospects and NGA is such a micro cap company (current market cap is $72.6 M), that it is much more dependent on its management skills than the overall economic activity. There are no press releases out since July 31st, that's a lot of time ... but I'll patiently keep waiting and holding NGA here, since I have no fundamental motive to sell it.   

Volume picked up a bit on NGA, but the stock still went down 2.5%. No news out for almost two months now. I still think/hope the stock is this weak more because of technical factors than any others, and we know how the chart can change very quickly.

I'll hold NGA for some more time.

NGA usually takes some more time than I expect, but finally we've had the 10% or so rally I've been talking about. Still no news out.

Let's see if the rally can get some traction over the next few days ... I'll keep holding the stock whatever happens, due to the very attractive valuation.

NGA isn't all that far off from turning its chart around. We have that horizontal resistance at $7.44 and the all important descending trendline currently standing at $8.08.

Volume picked up nicely to more than 400 thousand shares yesterday. I'll keep holding NGA.

A bit of selling yesterday in NGA, perhaps on a negative reaction to the 50 days SMA, took the stock down by 2.5%. Probably it's going to take some positive news for the chart to turn bullish again (NGA would have to close above $8.04). No news out today.

I'll continue holding NGA.

Still no news out for NGA. Technically the stocks needs to take three steps to turn bullish:

1) Close above the 50 days SMA, currently at $6.96.

2) Close above the $7.44 horizontal resistance level.

3) Most importantly, cross the descending trendline on the upside, with volume above average. This descending resistance will be standing at $8.01 today.

I expect this bullish behavior to happen because NGA is trading at a discount relative to its peers, the general market, and its own intrinsic growth.

No news out from NGA since July 31st. Yesterday was the 4th time the stock touched the descending 50 days SMA and failed to breakout on the upside. For today this moving average will be standing at $6.90. I expect the general market to provide some help to NGA, after the weaker open ... perhaps this will be enough for the stock to close above $6.90 and start trading more in tandem with its fundamentals.

I'll keep holding NGA.

QuoteI expect the general market to provide some help to NGA, after the weaker open ... perhaps this will be enough for the stock to close above $6.90 and start trading more in tandem with its fundamentals.

Nope, NGA went down, even as the general market recovered some ground. The stock has been weak, but I'm still not sure if it is because of the chart, or because fundamentals will deteriorate going forward.

Of course, everybody and their mothers are pessimistic on the US economy and, after residential construction collapse, I guess commercial construction should be next to go down. But this is what is on the people's minds, and that's not always the truth when it concerns to the stock market.

As far as my investment is concerned, I see a stock trading below 9 times earnings and growing fast over the last few years, so I think it is attractive. Anything not too bad will constitute a positive surprise for the market and that should put the chart on the bullish track.

However, it will be hard to change the technical picture without some new fundamental input. Perhaps we'll only get one in mid November with the quarterly earnings, since NGA's management isn't issuing any press releases.

I'll keep holding NGA.

NGA is trying to put on a short term floor, as volume picked up a bit and the stock closed off the lows. We'll see if this is the start of some upside action. Fundamental analysis tells me the stock is worth a lot more, so I'll keep holding NGA.

NGA ticked up 4.7% without any news. The 50 days SMA resistance level stands at $6.71 and the all important descending trendline at $7.84. I expect NGA to turn its chart around somewhere down the road, since fundamentals are attractive, as we've seen throughout this thread.

awesome again David 

Quote from: la-onda on September 28, 2007, 10:55:11 AM
awesome again David 

Well, I'm still losing in NGA ... but I tell you, if given time, I see no losers in the Main. They're all long term gainers in my view (unless fundamentals change).

What's happening today with NGA is that AZZ posted better than expected earnings and said backlog was at a record:

• InPlay: AZZ beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Briefing.com (Fri 5:09am)

The galvanizing market is growing stronger and stronger, as I expected, and NGA is trading at 9-10 times earnings (much cheaper than AZZ).

   By Bob Sechler
   Of Dow Jones Newswires


  AZZ Inc. (AZZ) shares rose Friday after the company logged fiscal second-quarter earnings that substantially topped expectations and also issued an upbeat outlook for 2008.

  Shares of Fort Worth-based AZZ were up 5% recently, or $1.69, at $35.20. Earlier Friday, the stock climbed as high as $37.89 a share, up 13%.

  The strong results from AZZ, which makes electrical products and provides galvanizing services, gave a boost to some other galvanizing stocks as well. Shares of North American Galvanizing & Coatings Inc. (NGA) were up 77 cents recently, or 11.9%, at $7.25.

  "This is the first real-time information about how galvanizing is doing," said Next Generation Equity Research analyst Ned Borland, who has a buy rating on AZZ but doesn't formally follow NGA. "This is a data point that shareholders (in the galvanizing sector) can look at and probably feel really good about."

  AZZ said earnings for its fiscal second quarter ended Aug. 31 came in at $8.12 million, or 66 cents a share, compared to $5.28 million, or 45 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue climbed 30%, to $81.6 million from $62.9 million.

  Wall Street had been expecting the company to earn 48 cents a share for the latest period on about $78.5 million in revenue.

  Meanwhile, AZZ raised its fiscal 2008 earnings view to a range of $1.95 a share to $2.05 a share on revenue of $315 million to $325 million. Previously, AZZ had pegged fiscal 2008 earnings at $1.65 a share to $1.75 a share, on revenue of $310 million to $320 million.

  Analysts said both of the company's business lines appear to be doing well.

  "They had strong sales growth in the electrical and industrial products segment, and the backlog continues to rise nicely," said Sidoti & Co. analyst John Franzreb, who maintained his buy rating on AZZ Friday and raised his price target to $42 a share from $36.

  As for galvanizing, analysts said AZZ was able to maintain pricing despite a drop in its cost of zinc, a key raw material. Galvanizing protects steel components from corrosion.

  -By Bob Sechler, Dow Jones Newswires; 512-236-9637


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  September 28, 2007 11:07 ET (15:07 GMT)

on FIRE