3SOF

Quote from: comovaivoce on September 20, 2007, 09:57:20 PM
Why? I don't think HOKU will get the financing  they need and even if they do it will be at about $8 or lower. Furthermore, they will not be able to build the Pocatello plant in the time frame they expect because the winners there are gruesome and not many people can work construction jobs.

I shorted at $14 akk the way to $8. I wanted to short again at $11 but Scottrade did not have shares for shorting this stock.

Next earnings and the subsequent 4 to 6 quarters will be horrible. Don't be surprised to see HOKU at $3 in a not too distant future

Why would you NOT think HOKU will get the financing???  Yes the winters in Idaho are cold...but I've lived in Minnesota and Wisconsin most of my life...(colder than Idaho) and construction does take place in the winter.

It's pretty obvious your agenda here(short).

I am making my comments based on HOKU's track record. They always start something and get out of that business quickly after their efforts fail. They have changed their business plan several times in the last 2 years. Now they think that they will start polysilicon shipments in early 2009. That is not going to happen even if they had all the money in the world right now.

The winters in Pocatello are very harsh and they in almost never outdoor construction for about 3 - 4 months of every year. They can't even pour foundations in winter because it won't cure under those conditions.

The reality is that HOKU has not secured the financing they need to make Sanyo happy. Sanyo has already given an extension until October 17, 2007 for HOKU to obtain financing to start building the polysilicon plant.

My guess is that if HOKU does get the financing in the next few days, it will create a dilution of about 40M shares and I don't think that they can get more than $6/share.

HOKU would like you to believe that construction is moving on all cylinders but the reality is that nothing has happened on the site since they broke ground in May when they broke ground with lots of fanfare.

The latest earnings release contains the following statement:

...."The Company commenced construction in May 2007, and assuming the financing can be obtained, it anticipates the availability of polysilicon beginning in the first half of calendar year 2009.."

A poster on the Yahoo board hit it on the head when he said:


CONSTRUCTION PROGRESS??

NOTHING HAS HAPPENED SINCE THEY BROKE GROUND IN MARCH (according to this local news report dated September 17, 2007)

http://www.kpvi.com/Global/story.asp?S=7089412

The article reads:

..."Within the next couple of months, construction will begin on this site, replacing the rocks and weeds with a $260 million plant."

OK....that will be like December when the temperature is minus 20 degrees. very few people work outside in Pocatello in winter time and those are mostly emergency crews to restore electricity, etc.

Then the article also says:


"...With construction complete by the end of 2008,"

Are you kidding me? ...they will build the whole plant in 8 months of available weather? Plants of that size and complexity are usually built in 18 months.

They have not ordered anything yet because the design is not finalized. Many of the key pieces of equipment and instruments are long delivery items. There is a lot of demand on process equipment coming from refineries being upgraded and undergoing turnaround all over the place. Manufacturing shops are maxed out fabricating high-pressure vessels and other equipment. Control valves, compressors, pumps, boilers cooling towers, waster treatment plants, water treatment plants, etc are long delivery items. Many of those have to be build specific for a project because of pressure, temperature, flow constraints...they are not waiting on the shelf ready for the HOKU truck to pick them up.

Now, Stone and Webster has an excellent safety record and they will not jeopardize the safety of construction crews to expedite a project just because the owner (HOKU) over-promised and it is now desperate.

You guys need to do a little more DD on this one. BTW, I am not short. I can't short with a cash account.

Good luck to you

HOKU...up after financing last week.  May be up because of LDK tremendous move today.

Short term chart looks very bullish.  Would like to see a little more volume though.

Looks interesting...

Just broke away from the 13dma   

Keep it on the radar.

I made some technical work for your HOKU chart with comments if you don´t mind. Overall this is bullish view and I like the fact that stock took correction for 50%. 38.2% and fib 50% lines as those are the one´s most likely starting new impulse for upside (elliott waves terminology).



Regards,


D
http://just-charts.blogspot.com/