3SOF

Thanks for the info la-onda

Bears on NVTL are a bit of a pain, when it seems so obvious that the mobile internet connection solution will continue to grow at a torrid pace. I guess today's sellers will be buying back the stock when it breaks $30 on the upside.

I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

I guess investors need to see some sequential growth to believe NVTL's long term growth story. I think the lack of growth from the 1st quarter is due to the very big jump the company's revenues had a few quarters back ... revenue jumped 40% sequentially in Q4 2006 and jumped another 42% sequentially in Q1 2007. This is a lot higher than the long term average and may have caused some inventory build up by NVTL's costumers.

So there wasn't any revenue growth in Q2 2007 and there won't be any growth in Q3 2007. However, probably in Q4 we're going to see another big jump in orders ... as I look to the fundamental data trends I see some seasonality, it appears to me the 4th and 1st quarters are the strongest of the year.

I believe the company's industry will grow by an average of 50% a year for years to come. I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

Unless NVTL raises guidance, which I only expect when the company reports 3rd quarter results in mid November, the stock is heavily dependent on the general market direction, because it only moves on a multiple contraction or expansion.

The general market went down for three days in a row and so did NVTL. I think today's open will be the short term bottom for the S&P 500 and the market is set to rally big, so I expect NVTL to follow suit.

Anyway, even if my short term prediction is wrong, I'll keep holding NVTL due to its outstanding fundamental trends, which I see continuing for years to come.

fyi:
NVTL: Short Interest UP 6.0% to 9.2M in Sep 2007
Tuesday , September 25, 2007 16:19ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Novatel Wireless Inc (NasdaqNM: NVTL) INCREASED 6.0% to 9,177,753 shares for the month ended mid-September, 2007.

SYMBOL       AUGUST       SEPTEMBER          CHANGE       %CHANGE      DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
NVTL           8,657,012       9,177,753        +520,741        +6.02%          13

Based on NVTL's 20-day average daily share volume of 760,770, it would require approximately 13 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

It felt good to have some upside action on NVTL yesterday, we'll see if it gets some traction ... looking at the chart it doesn't look like it, but we know we can't trust "these looks". Everyday there's a new message from the short term chart, and many times the message is wrong.

The message from the fundamental trends and outlook is crystal clear: NVTL will go higher over the long term as its business keeps growing. I'll hold NVTL for the long term.

Quotelooking at the chart it doesn't look like it, but we know we can't trust "these looks". Everyday there's a new message from the short term chart, and many times the message is wrong.

Well, we've had some upside continuation in NVTL. It seems the $24.9 resistance is in play now. The short term support stands around $22.5. I'm confident NVTL will make a bullish breakout and push towards $30, even if not today.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/verizon-wireless-offers-industry-first/story.aspx?guid=%7bDEEABEE3-952A-4A5E-887C-9C737080BD92%7d&print=true&dist=printTop

Verizon Wireless Offers Industry First: USB Wireless Broadband Modem With Integrated Data Storage


Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Sep 27, 2007

BASKING RIDGE, N.J. and SAN DIEGO, Sept 27, 2007 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Verizon Wireless, the leading wireless company with the nation's most reliable wireless voice and data network, today announced the availability of the USB727 Modem. Developed by Novatel Wireless (NVTL) , a leading provider of wireless broadband solutions, and carrying the distinction of being the world's smallest Evolution-Data Optimized (EV-DO) Revolution A (Rev. A) modem stick, the USB727 features an integrated microSD(TM) slot, allowing for the seamless storage and transport of up to 4 GB of files, photos or videos. Customers may purchase the USB727 Modem today online at http://www.verizonwireless.com and through Verizon Wireless' business sales channels. USB727 Modem will be in Verizon Wireless Communications Stores including those in Circuit City on October 5.
The USB727 is designed to work with any computing device equipped with a Type A USB port -- including most desktops, notebooks, and tablet PCs -- and provides on-the-go access to Verizon Wireless' national high-speed wireless broadband network. With out-of-box support for most operating systems, including Windows(R) (Vista, XP, 2000), Mac(R) and Linux, the USB727 enables Verizon Wireless customers to stay connected to online resources with speeds and performance similar to those of traditional cable or DSL connections.
The USB727 is optimized for Verizon Wireless' EV-DO Rev. A network and the company's BroadbandAccess service which provides average download speeds of 600 kilobits per second (kbps) to 1.4 megabits and average upload speeds of 500-800 kbps. Verizon Wireless customers with the USB727 can download a 1 Megabyte e-mail attachment -- the equivalent of a small PowerPoint(R) presentation or a large PDF file -- in about eight seconds and upload the same-sized file in less than 13 seconds.
Designed to be extremely durable and fit comfortably in any pocket, the USB727 combines a variety of innovative features into its tiny form factor, including an integrated dual-band diversity antennae system with flip-up antennae to maximize data speed performance and provide a strong network signal reception. VZAccess Manager Software is included to simplify set-up and navigation through the USB727's features.
Pricing and Availability
The USB727 is available at $149.99 after a $50 mail-in rebate and new two- year agreement. Customers can get BroadbandAccess service for Internet browsing, e-mail and intranet access for $59.99 monthly access with a new one- or two-year customer agreement. Business customers may contact a Verizon Wireless Business Sales Representative directly at 1-800-VZW-4BIZ.
For more information about Verizon Wireless products and services, visit a Verizon Wireless Communications Store, call 1-800-2 JOIN IN or go to http://www.verizonwireless.com.

Thanks JKN

NVTL issued two press releases yesterday but both failed to inspire buyers, as the stock continues stuck in a tight trading range:

• Verizon Wireless Offers Industry First: USB Wireless Broadband Modem With Integrated Data Storage
PR Newswire (Thu 8:30am)

And there was another press release, this coming out from Sprint, at 12:41 which wasn't posted on Yahoo Finance, let me check Market Watch ... nope. Strange, I have it on my news service, but can't post a link because it is a Java application.

I'll copy/paste it later if it's not published on Yahoo.

Anyway, nothing changed on the stock or fundamentals, I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

Here is the news from Sprint that you mentioned:

Sprint Expands Mobile Broadband Portfolio with Novatel Wireless 2-in-1 USB Modem
12:41p ET September 27, 2007 (Business Wire)
Sprint (NYSE:S) and Novatel Wireless, Inc., (Nasdaq:NVTL) a leading provider of wireless broadband solutions, today announced the commercial availability of the Ovation(TM) U727 USB Modem. Carrying the distinction of being the world's smallest EV-DO Rev. A modem stick, the Ovation U727 features an integrated microSD(TM) slot, allowing for the seamless storage and transport of up to 4GB of files, photos or videos.

The Ovation U727 is designed to work with any computing device equipped with Type A USB ports, including most desktops, notebooks, tablet PCs and PDAs, to provide instant on-the-go mobile broadband access. With out-of-box support for a variety of operating systems including Windows(R) (Vista, XP, 2000), Mac OS(R) X and Linux, the Ovation U727 enables users to surf the Web, check email and access important business documents with speeds similar to those of a cable or DSL connection.

"Mobile professionals and consumers alike want to make the most out of whatever equipment they carry and Sprint customers get maximum value from the Ovation U727 which delivers both high-speed access via the Sprint Mobile Broadband Network and the ability to store and access documents and other critical information," said Danny Bowman, vice president of customer equipment for Sprint. "A smaller form factor, GPS locate-and-find capabilities and newly available support for the Linux platform truly help make this a next-generation connectivity device for our customers."

Optimized for the Sprint Mobile Broadband Network, the Ovation U727 supports EV-DO Rev. A technology where available providing average download speeds from 600 kbps to 1.4 Mbps (with peak speeds of 3.1 Mbps) and upload speeds from 350 to 500 Kbps (with peak speeds of 1.8 Mbps), offering users unprecedented performance and notably faster speeds than legacy mobile data modems. The Ovation U727 is also backwards compatible for EV-DO Rev. 0 and 1XRTT technology in areas where EV-DO Rev. A coverage is not yet available.

"Novatel Wireless and Sprint have worked closely to develop mobile broadband solutions that meet the everyday needs of the end user," said Brad Weinert, president, Novatel Wireless. "With the launch of the Ovation U727, Sprint customers can now take full advantage of the next-generation speed and functionality of the Sprint Mobile Broadband Network."

Featuring an extremely durable design and remarkably small form factor, the U727 combines a variety of innovative features, including an integrated dual band diversity antennae system with flip-up antennae to maximize data speed performance and provide for stronger network signal reception. Sprint Mobile Broadband Lite Manager Software is included to simplify set-up and navigation through the vast feature set of the Ovation U727, eliminating the need to install drivers from a CD when using the Windows platform.

Beginning next month, the U727 will be sold through Sprint indirect and business sales channels and online at www.sprint.com for a suggested retail price of $279.99 and as low as $79.99 with a two-year subscriber agreement and mail-in-rebate. Sprint retail stores will begin offering the device later this year. Service plans for the card currently range from $39.99 per month for 40 MB to $79.99 per month for unlimited data usage. Customers signing a two-year subscriber agreement will be eligible to receive unlimited data usage for $59.99 per month (no separate voice plan required).

Thanks berloga

It seems the press release didn't do much to prevent NVTL from falling 3.5% on Friday's session. I think NVTL has been anticipating what the general market will do, however with a higher beta. Or else it is just trading within a tight trading range, and we know how relative strengths and weaknesses can be misleading when this is the case.

The company will make a presentation today:

Mon, Sep 24, 2007
• Novatel Wireless to Present at Jefferies Technology Conference 2007
Business Wire (Mon, Sep 24)

It will be nice to hear what management has to say about the future.

I'll hold NVTL for the long term.

I've heard the Jefferies Technology conference and enjoyed what NVTL's president had to say. It appears very strong growth continues in all product categories.

Another thing I found interesting was that he stressed that the company has $3.5 a share in net cash.

This is important, not only because the company doesn't need more money from investors, but also because analysts usually take out the cash portion from their earnings multiple calculation.

So, with NVTL closing at $23.41, taking out the $3.5 cash per share, we get $19.91. This divided by the 2008 EPS estimate (which I find very conservative) of $1.20, gives me a forward earnings multiple of 16.6, which is very attractive for a company expected to grow 53% a year, on average, between now and 2012.

I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

I got even more confident on NVTL after listening to the Jefferies presentation.

I don't know how analysts come up with 12% EPS growth for 2008 when the company's management keeps reaffirming 53% CAGR in demand for its products until 2012. I think analysts will have to revise their 2008 estimates upwards by quite a lot. That should make NVTL move towards $30 and beyond.

David, I have about 17% of my capital in NVTL, since originally I put more money and then the stock moved up 50%... You sold a half of ICOC today, but what would you advise in regards to NVTL? According to the model it has another potential 66% growth... I can't tell I feel uncomfortable holding this much of NVTL, but perhaps I could manage the money better? I have all the other stocks from your portfolio. But no cash left. Should I wait for a new pick and then lighten up on NVTL? What would you suggest?

NVTL showing strength here...up 6.9%+ for the day and has cleared the short term resistance around $25 on good volume.  If it closes above 25, it is set up for a run to $29.  I hope it runs up some more before the close.

Quote from: berloga on October 03, 2007, 12:14:27 PM
David, I have about 17% of my capital in NVTL, since originally I put more money and then the stock moved up 50%... You sold a half of ICOC today, but what would you advise in regards to NVTL? According to the model it has another potential 66% growth... I can't tell I feel uncomfortable holding this much of NVTL, but perhaps I could manage the money better? I have all the other stocks from your portfolio. But no cash left. Should I wait for a new pick and then lighten up on NVTL? What would you suggest?

I like NVTL more than ICOC, because I understand the business better and I see a lot more potential and safety in NVTL than ICOC. However 17% of capital in one single stock seems too much weight, I would take that size down to 10% and invest the 7% in a new pick that I'm going to buy today.

Quote from: JKN on October 03, 2007, 03:33:51 PM
NVTL showing strength here...up 6.9%+ for the day and has cleared the short term resistance around $25 on good volume.  If it closes above 25, it is set up for a run to $29.  I hope it runs up some more before the close.

Well, we closed at $24.91, just a touch below $25. Volume was quite strong, at 1.9 million shares. Also, the stock showed relative strength (not that it means something, it was relatively weak before, and that indication was wrong). I think it will make a bullish breakout this time, we'll see over the next few days.

Analysts must take a deeper look at those 2008 estimates, they seem to be way below where they should be. This upward revision that I expect will probably take NVTL beyond $30 by years end.

I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.