3SOF

David it looks like it has reach the end , probably 19.80 to 20.40 is a one time chance for those who want to buy it at these low prices 

I won't be nice below 18.90 ...

I'm buying today

AP
Sierra Wireless Completes Stock Offer
Tuesday October 2, 9:14 am ET 
Sierra Wireless Completes Stock Offer of 3.8 Million Shares for $22.40 Per Share


NEW YORK (AP) -- Canadian wireless technology company Sierra Wireless Inc. said Tuesday it completed a stock offering of 3.8 million shares at a price of $22.40 per share.
The gross proceeds of the offering were about $85.1 million. The cash raised from the deal will be used for general corporate purposes, working capital and potential future acquisitions.

The offering included 300,000 shares to cover overallotments.

Shares of Sierra Wireless closed Monday at $20.39.



Reason for the boost today?

QuoteReason for the boost today?

I think it might be the following:

«Under the offering, which included 300,000 shares issuable upon the exercise by the underwriters of the over-allotment option, Sierra Wireless sold 3,800,000 common shares from treasury.»

I'll investigate this issue better for the daily update, I don't have time now, have to go pick up my kids from school.

See you

I'm going to have to write SWIR's investor relations because I can't find any shares in treasury for them to sell from treasury:

«Under the offering, which included 300,000 shares issuable upon the exercise by the underwriters of the over-allotment option, Sierra Wireless sold 3,800,000 common shares from treasury.»

Treasury Stock Definition:

«Stock reacquired by a corporation to be retired or resold to the public. Treasury stock is issued but not outstanding, and is not taken into consideration when calculating earnings per share or dividends, or for voting purposes.»

Anyway, this doesn't change much of the long term outlook that I have for SWIR, which calls for more than 50% revenue CAGR over the next 5 years, so ... I'll keep holding SWIR for the long term.

I wrote SWIR's CFO about the "from treasury" issue, I'm still waiting for a reply.

Anyway, with NVTL doing so well, there's no way SWIR can stay down here, since fundamentals are about the same.

I'll keep holding SWIR.

SWIR is cheaper than NVTL, because 2008 EPS estimates call for $1.21 EPS for SWIR and $1.2 for NVTL. This means SWIR is trading at $21.27/$1.21 = 17.6 times earnings, while NVTL is trading at $25.08/$1.20 = 20.9 times earnings.

But I think they're both even cheaper, because those 2008 estimates, calling for something like 12% to 20% growth, are way too conservative, since both companies have studies which say their market will grow by more than 50% next year. The way I see the reality in the consumers behavior I'm more of a believer in 50% plus than less than 20% ...

I'll continue holding SWIR for the long term.

I expect SWIR to follow NVTL's footprints and I'll continue holding it.

I don't have a valid explanation to why NVTL goes up and SWIR goes down. Maybe it's because investors think NVTL is stealing market share from SWIR ... but I don't think that should have much of an effect on SWIR, because the industry itself is expected to grow at a 53% CAGR over the next five years. With the market growing at this speed, it doesn't matter much if you win or lose 5% of market share.

Or else the market knows something, like for example, it knows SWIR is about to lose one of its major clients to NVTL. This could be the cause for the weakness, but this is just futile speculation.

As far as I'm concerned, and until we get new fundamental information, I'll consider SWIR's relative weakness as "short term technical noise" and I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.

SWIR's short term technical noise continues to defy logic, but since it's noise it's not supposed to have a logic. I remain confident that over the long term the fundamental trends of the business will reign supreme and those are without a doubt strongly positive.

I'll continue holding SWIR for the long term.

Perhaps SWIR will have to touch the 200 days SMA before moving up, like it happened in mid-August. Anyway, I believe SWIR will be around $30 by the end of the year and I'll continue holding the stock.

At last, a little bit of positive action from SWIR. It's funny how analysts expect $1.21 EPS for SWIR in 2008 and $1.2 EPS for NVTL, and SWIR closed at $20.7 and NVTL at $26.42.

With about the same EPS projections (which I believe are very low in both cases), both stocks should be trading at about the same price ... but SWIR needs to rise 27.6% to catch up with NVTL.

Since I don't see a valid reason for this discount, I believe SWIR will indeed rise and catch up with NVTL. Then it will rise some more because 2008 estimates are too low.

I'll continue holding SWIR for the long term.

Ever hear that saying: "Almost too good to be true?"
This stock is whispering that to me.
I am breaking all kinds of rules to own more shares of this growth stock..
The chart looks like a train wreck, but today's volume is encouraging because MAYBE there has finally been some capitulation...
SWIR now appears to be a takeover candidate at the current price.
Does it not?

Do you guys ever use stop limits on stocks...
Maybe the 200 day MA?
I know what you are going to answer but I thought I would ask anyway...

Anyone else holding SWIR that wants to comment?

I have some comments 

It will probably close the gap , and I'll stop losses if it close below $18.90 ..

that's it

Let's have a little additional patience with this one.
If you look at those descending and upward trends, it seems it still has a chance.

Now of course if you only look at the following chart and depending on your entry
you are right to be worried. But even in this chart there is still some hope.
STO is about to rebound and even though the 20MA is crossing down the 50 MA,
both are still over the 9 EMA.
Therefore we have the ascending weekly line is slightly broken and also the 200 EMA close
that might act as support.
Tomorrow is a key day for this one.