3SOF

It was just barely, but NVTL closed above $25, which is encouraging. I wonder if management will provide 2008 guidance at the next earnings call. I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

Believe it or not, the day before yesterday I had a dream just before waking up that while most stocks declined, NVTL actually shot to $26! I was pleasantly surprised to see the dream come true. 

I'll keep you apprised of all my future stock- night dreams. 

Quote from: berloga on October 05, 2007, 10:06:44 AM
Believe it or not, the day before yesterday I had a dream just before waking up that while most stocks declined, NVTL actually shot to $26! I was pleasantly surprised to see the dream come true. 

I'll keep you apprised of all my future stock- night dreams. 

hehe, thanks berloga

You should try to keep stocks away from your dreams ... actually you shouldn't dream at all, if you're in a peaceful state of mind. At least according to an Indian philosopher named Osho. Read his book "Intuition", if you enjoy the theme.

NVTL had a good day on Friday, rising 3.1%. It appears we've definitely broken out of that trading range between $22.43 and $24.9 and are heading north now.

I expect NVTL to close 2007 around $30, as analysts revise their 2008 estimates upwards. I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

Upgrade :

NVTL Novatel Wireless upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC

Quote from: Garoh on October 08, 2007, 08:59:37 AM
Upgrade :

NVTL Novatel Wireless upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC

Thanks for posting this Garoh

CIBC upgraded NVTL to sector outperform, I thought NVTL was the sector

NVTL and SWIR basically divide the World between the two, pretty much like Spain and Portugal did in the 15th century. And NVTL is the biggest of the two (just slightly though).

Anyway, it produced another bullish white candle, as NVTL marches towards $30 and beyond. I'll keep holding NVTL.

Quote from: Garoh on October 08, 2007, 08:59:37 AM
Upgrade :

NVTL Novatel Wireless upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC

CIBC analyst George Iwanyc upgraded Novatel to "Sector Outperformer" from "Sector Performer" and set a price target of $33.

Iwanyc said he already expected a solid third quarter from the company, with possible upside coming from strength in North America. But, he added, "our most recent checks give us comfort that the September USB product launches are going better than we first thought, particularly in Europe." The analyst added he also found that the stronger-than-expected demand in Europe has outstripped Novatel's supply for some products, creating some shortages. But he doesn't see this as a problem. "We believe Novatel is already upping production and we look for full-year guidance to increase," Iwanyc wrote.

"The shares have already seen a nice run after competitive and product transition fears weighed on the stock early in the third quarter, but we believe there is still room for more growth post the recent run," he added.

Thanks for the useful information La-Onda

I especially enjoyed the following:

"We believe Novatel is already upping production and we look for full-year guidance to increase"

I see the move from this analyst made 2007 and 2008 EPS estimates rise one cent:



But we still have just 12% EPS growth expected for 2008. If we believe the company's internal study that says unit shipments will grow at a 53% CAGR (as I do), then 2008 EPS should be more like $1.65, not $1.21.

There's plenty of room for upside surprises on NVTL and its earnings multiple should expand. I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

NVTL held better than the Nasdaq Composite yesterday. Nothing new on the fundamental side. I'll continue holding NVTL for the long term.

Nothing new on NVTL, as we wait for the 3rd quarter earnings results. Analysts are expecting $0.23 EPS, which seems easy to beat:



But next year's guidance is what matters the most now. I still believe that 18% revenue growth and 12% EPS growth is too conservative, especially considering the company has internal projections pointing to 53% CAGR between now and 2012.

I'll keep on holding NVTL for the long term.

Because there's no new fundamental information for NVTL, the stock trades more or less in tandem with the general market, as its earnings multiple expands and contracts. Now that the SPY closed its gap, I think it will have another bull leg to new all time highs, adding 3-5% upside between now and the end of the year.

This bullish move, coupled with rising estimates for 2008, will, in my mind, put NVTL above $30 before 2007 closes.

QuoteBecause there's no new fundamental information for NVTL, the stock trades more or less in tandem with the general market, as its earnings multiple expands and contracts. Now that the SPY closed its gap, I think it will have another bull leg to new all time highs, adding 3-5% upside between now and the end of the year.

Still no bullish move from the general market, so NVTL went down (it usually moves more than the market, it has a higher than 1 beta).

Fundamentally, mainly two reasons make me keep holding this stock:

1) I see people migrating from a fixed or wireless internet connection to a mobile internet connection. Mobile communications operators, which are NVTL's costumers will keep promoting their mobile internet connection services.

2) The company itself sees 53% revenue CAGR between now and 2012, therefore, the 2008 estimates, calling for just 12% growth, seem very conservative in my view and should expand.

I'll continue holding NVTL for the long term, this is a multi-billion dollar company, not $832 M as it is now.

It seems there were some buyers in NVTL because there's a rumor that Sprint, which is both a NVTL and SWIR costumer, will start using just NVTL's products. Now there's an analyst saying that might not be truth, or that it isn't all that significant.

So we've had some money moving out of NVTL and into SWIR today.

These are just short term developments. Over the medium term NVTL will go higher because:

Quote1) I see people migrating from a fixed or wireless internet connection to a mobile internet connection. Mobile communications operators, which are NVTL's costumers will keep promoting their mobile internet connection services.

2) The company itself sees 53% revenue CAGR between now and 2012, therefore, the 2008 estimates, calling for just 12% growth, seem very conservative in my view and should expand.

I'll keep holding NVTL for the long term.

NVTL is still asleep. I guess that only when people start seriously thinking about what 2008 will bring, will the stock rise.

I'm sure people will want a mobile internet connection and no other in the not so distant future. To be truly mobile, computers should work on solar energy ... probably something for ASTI to do

I'll continue holding NVTL for the long term.

NVTL has been suffering from an earnings multiple compression, because the general market has been down lately. But I believe in a much higher than $1.2 EPS number for 2008, with or without general economic growth, as people substitute their fixed or wireless internet connection for a mobile one.

I'll continue holding NVTL for the long term, despite the short term weakness.

 
Novatel Wireless upgraded to "buy"

Monday, October 22, 2007 8:55:07 AM ET
Morgan Joseph & Co

NEW YORK, October 22 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Morgan Joseph upgrade Novatel Wireless Inc (NVTL.NAS) from "hold" to "buy," while raising their estimates for the company.
The target price is set to $32.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company's performance in 2H07 is expected to be robust, which is likely to continue into 2008. Novatel Wireless' sales over the near term are expected to be primarily driven by the new USB727 Ev-Do Rev A modem and the release of MC950D for operators in Europe, the analysts say. The EPS estimate for FY08 has been raised from $1.30 to $1.40.