3SOF

QuoteWell now I know what the Tivo'd newscast, was about last night and won't need to listen. Like you David, I hope this doesn't run up too fast. I don't want to be tempted to take profits, want to at least  push them into next year. Good to see you excited on this one, you deserve a nice reward on it.

Thanks, I hope justice will be made

JAKK took another step to diversify and grow its business:

• JAKKS Pacific Signs Master Toy License for Discovery Kids
PR Newswire (Mon 6:00am)

They're really investing for the future of the company and I expect these investments to earn a nice return in terms of EPS for shareholders, which will ultimately translate into a higher stock price.

I'll keep holding JAKK for the long term.

JAKK continues to trade within the $26 - $28 range, as expected. In 2006 the 3rd quarter earnings release date was November 9, so I expect it to be around that date this year.

I wish JAKK stays around current levels and then, when the company reports earnings and pushes up full year revenue and EPS guidance (currently at $800 M for revenue and $2.39 for EPS), it makes a gigantic gap up, eating all the bears and shorts alive

I have no doubts that Hannah Montana, Pokemon and Plug it in & play TV games are doing well in the retail market. I wonder what is the average price for an Hannah Montana doll? Let me check if it is available at www.amazon.com:

Hannah Montana related products

I see JAKK is riding Hannah Montana's wave as much as it can ... it isn't just dolls, but several related products. Look at that backstage selling for $30 ... and a wig selling for $20. These products, made in China (of course), probably have a fat net profit margin.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

Hey David!
Jim Cramer just found your stock---JAKK! He is talking it up BIG. He says it is the next "Hot Stock".
Great pick David! Put your seat belt on!

Here is the recap if you are interested in his viewpoint:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10383429_2.html

David,

My account shows an earnings date of October 15th

Brad

Hanna Montana is a big time teen and kid idol. Even my 3.5 yr old is a fan of Hanna Montana. Having said that I would shop for Wii for my kid rather then Ms. Montana during holidays.

Quote from: Houlahan on October 08, 2007, 06:46:18 PM
Hey David!
Jim Cramer just found your stock---JAKK! He is talking it up BIG. He says it is the next "Hot Stock".
Great pick David! Put your seat belt on!

Here is the recap if you are interested in his viewpoint:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10383429_2.html

Thanks for this information Houlahan

The interesting part is the following:

«On Wednesday, Jakks is hosting a big analyst meeting, and if the company preannounces better-than-expected numbers for the fourth quarter it could shoot higher, Cramer said.»

If indeed JAKK raises its full year revenue and EPS guidance it will undoubtedly shoot to new all time highs above $31.42, because investors were pricing in a disappointment like it happened in 2006. If not the stock will come down to "pre-Cramer" levels.

Anyway, longer term, I believe the only way is up for JAKK. 

This is weird, Cramer's article posted by Houlahan is dated October 8th (Monday) and it says the following:

«On Wednesday, Jakks is hosting a big analyst meeting, and if the company preannounces better-than-expected numbers for the fourth quarter it could shoot higher, Cramer said.»

Does he mean today? It's just that I don't see any indication of any meeting between JAKK's management and analysts today. I think that if that meeting were to exist and they were to say anything material for the share price they would have to pre-announce it and webcast it, or else, analysts will have access to information before other market participants, which I believe is illegal.

Does anyone knows something about the SEC laws on this subject? Thanks.

Today or later, I agree with Cramer when he says JAKK will, at some point, increase its 2007 revenue and EPS guidance, because their products are very hot for this shopping season and that wasn't expected at start, at least not by investors, who sold the stock down 40% just because of a 5 cents earnings miss on a less relevant and seasonally weak quarter.

I'll be watching today's activity on JAKK, but whatever happens, I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.

I emailed TheStreet.com about the big analyst meeting for today (Wednesday) This will be interesting to see what or if they respond.

Quote from: Houlahan on October 10, 2007, 09:10:23 PM
I emailed TheStreet.com about the big analyst meeting for today (Wednesday) This will be interesting to see what or if they respond.

Yeah, there wasn't any analyst meeting. Cramer probably made some kind of confusion ... speaking on national TV he should have some staff to confirm everything he's about to say. The incredible part is that there were about $28 M traded in JAKK on that erroneous information.

Because there wasn't any analyst meeting the stock fell back down to prior levels, which is perfectly fine for me. Hopefully the "Cramer followers" will leave JAKK, because this stock is not for them ... anyway, I do believe Cramer is right when he predicts management will raise 2007 guidance (or beat it), even though he was wrong on timing.

I'll continue holding JAKK for the long term.

After closing "Cramer's gap" on Thursday, JAKK rose 3.2% on Friday. But the stock is still inside the now named "easily scared money" island. I hope it stays within the island, just on the coast of it, that is, between $26 and $28.5, and then, when JAKK raises its full year 2007 guidance (I think this will happen at the 3rd quarter earnings release), it just gaps up over $31 and never looks back on its way to $50.

I've changed JAKK's island name to "fast money island", I think it is more appropriate this way, because BigSully1 wasn't scared when he sold JAKK short, he was fast. And profited from being fast.

Investors like me haven't been rewarded by their loyalty to JAKK, but I expect this to change soon, as I see $40 a share or more coming over in the next 6 months, as the company raises guidance or beats 2007 estimates.

JAKK keeps investing in innovative and attractive products:

• American Kennel Club(R)-Branded Travel Convenience Meals for Dogs Target On-the-Go Pet Owners
PR Newswire (Tue 6:00am)

It is also getting more and more diversified by the day. It's a non-sense to price it at 11 times earnings.

The stock is doing what it is supposed to do, which is to stay within the fast money island and then gap up above $30 when the company reports 3rd quarter earnings and hopefully raises full year 2007 guidance, as I think it will.

It doesn't matter which press releases or product launches JAKK's management does, the stock is stuck between $26 and $28, as I expected.

Only one thing can make the stock move out of this range in a meaningful way, and that is a revision to the 2007 revenue and earnings guidance.

I'm fully confident that this revision will be on the upside, because I have no doubts that the company's products are in very high demand this shopping season.

I'll continue holding JAKK.

And this was just out, JAKK will announce 3rd quarter earnings next Monday:

• JAKKS Pacific to Announce Results for Third Quarter 2007
Business Wire (Wed 6:30am)

Interesting what they say, it isn't usual:

«The Company will also hold a teleconference and webcast to discuss these results and may discuss future plans and prospects.»

Bullish toy outlook from China:

Reuters 10/17/07

BEIJING (Reuters) - Orders for Chinese toys are on the rise in the run-up to Christmas despite a wave of product recalls that have shaken confidence in the safety of Chinese-made goods, the country's product safety chief said on Wednesday.


Millions of Chinese-made toys have been recalled this year, mostly because of excessive levels of lead in paint and other components, stoking U.S. complaints that lax quality controls were threatening consumers.

But Li Changjiang, the head of General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, said factory owners in the southern province of Guangdong, China's manufacturing heartland, told him business was booming.

"They told me, 'our orders are all up', the workers have to work overtime or the orders cannot be met," Li told reporters. "When I heard this, I was shocked."

Problems with Chinese exports prompted the world's biggest toy maker, Mattel Inc, to recall about 21 million of its Chinese-made toys earlier this year. A senior Mattel executive later apologized to China for the trouble the recall had caused.

But in the past few weeks another half a million toys ranging from Winnie the Pooh bookmarks to Baby Einstein blocks were recalled in the United States because of levels of lead, which can be toxic in large amounts.

Li has been spearheading China's public relations drive to restore confidence in the "made-in-China" label, rounding up manufacturers for a crash course in quality supervision and urging companies to make clear in contracts their obligations.

"These unqualified products, especially products exported through illegal channels, have affected the credibility of some Chinese products," he said.

But he also said some of the concern abroad was driven by trade protectionism, and that the quality issue "should not be exaggerated."

Tainted Chinese goods have ranged from tires and toothpaste to drugs and seafood.

The number of orders for Chinese toys showed that companies were still happy to manufacture in China, Li said, adding that authorities would enhance supervision and increase severity of punishments to crack down on illegally made products.

"Ahead of Christmas, China's toy-makers will provide safe and reliable toys to children around the world by ensuring their quality," Li said.

"So I urge the importers of Chinese toys to come to China and buy more Chinese toys and I wish children around the world a Merry Christmas."

test Nielsen ratings for cable tv shows.Looks like JAKK should have a blowout quarter


Cable: Top 15
Rank Show name Network Viewers in millions

1. Cowboys vs. Bills ESPN 13.0

2. Indians vs. Yankees  TBS 9.2

3. Twitches Too Disney 7.0

4. Wiz./Waverly Pl. Disney 5.9

5. Rockies vs. D'backs  TBS 5.3

6. D'backs vs. Rockies  TBS 5.2

7.  Hannah Montana (Fri, 10 p.m.) Disney 5.0

8. Hannah Montana (Fri, 10:30 p.m.) Disney 4.3

9. High School Musical 2 Disney 4.2

10. WWE Raw (Mon, 10 p.m.) USA 3.9

* WWE Raw (Mon, 9 p.m.) USA  3.9

12. Twitches Disney 3.6

13. Law & Order: CI USA 3.4

* Zoey/Curse of PCA Nickelodeon 3.4

* Zack & Cody Disney 3.4