3SOF

La-Onda sent me another e-mail, apparently his source confused ticker symbols:

«Sorry David, "wrong alarm"

quotation:
Hi Oliver,
I had a look at my old "notes", and could not find UTVG....Could be mistaken identity.....There is a company with similar ticker, travelling business, incorporated in Vancouver, that was clear pump/dump, plus all kind of problems with management, cooking the books, late filing, delisted, and so on....That company was "discovered" ( not sure if it was posted on our board ) by Chris, our "bad boy"....
Sorry, probably I am wrong, it must be something else than UTVG. When you did mention it to me, I had very quick. superficial look, and it pops in my mind as bad company, so I sent you a "warning"....Bottom line, it is not UTVG

cheers from SGP
Oliver»

Yep, UTVG is a new company, it doesn't have an obscure past.

We'll get 3rd quarter earnings this week so that will be a good opportunity to know more about UTVG.OB and its growth prospects.

According to my valuation model and given the current fundamental trends, UTVG's value is much higher than the current share price.

I'll keep holding UTVG.OB for the long term.

Because of a technical issue on David's internet connection he was not able to publish this update.

The instructions for this position is: HOLD

UTVG.OB will release 3rd quarter earnings this Friday after the close:

• Universal Travel Group Announces Q3 FY '07 Earnings and Conference Call
Business Wire (Tue, Oct 23)

However, the conference call will be held just on Monday morning.

I guess management is doing this to gather as many people to the conference call as possible.

The one analyst covering the company is calling for the following numbers:



$0.08 EPS on $10.5 M revenue. I'm not going to predict this quarter's numbers because I see they will change a lot in the future, because the company announced several new acquisitions after September 30th, 2007.

For 2008 I'm expecting $0.49 EPS and I'll keep holding UTVG.OB for the long term on that basis.

Q3 earnings will be out today after the close (I guess it will be after the close, but there wasn't any indication on the exact timing of the release) and I'll hold through earnings, even though I already had a bad experience with ETLT.OB, which just reported poor 3rd quarter earnings.

I believe UTVG.OB is very different. It is a fast growing and profitable operation in a more innovative business segment. We'll see what we'll get.

I'll keep holding UTVG.OB.

Great quarter - $20.4mm revenue; $0.09 diluted EPS.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071109/nef070.html?.v=11

Nice pick David.  Applaud.

The only downside of this stock that I see is Hawk Associates, which was responsible for the CHID pump and dump.

Quote from: buddjas1 on November 09, 2007, 04:48:35 PM
Great quarter - $20.4mm revenue; $0.09 diluted EPS.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071109/nef070.html?.v=11

Nice pick David.  Applaud.

The only downside of this stock that I see is Hawk Associates, which was responsible for the CHID pump and dump.

Yeah, well, Hawk Associates covers many stocks.

• Universal Travel Group Q3 FY'07 Revenue $20.4M; Net Income $3.1M or $0.09 Diluted EPS
PR Newswire (Fri, Nov 9)

Hawk's estimates were totally out of the map, especially on the revenue side, which came in double of what they expected:



Did I tell you UTVG.OB is the fastest growing company I've ever seen? Take a look at this:

«Universal Travel reported record revenue of $20.4 million for the third quarter, an increase of approximately 1,252% from $1.5 million for the comparable quarter in fiscal year 2006 and 190% sequentially from the second quarter of 2007.»

Growing 190% a quarter Of course, this is due to acquisitions ... companies UTVG.OB has been buying for 7 times earnings or even less.

With $0.09 EPS in the 3rd quarter of 2007 and this type of growth (EPS grew 80% sequentially from Q2 2007, when the company reported $0.05 EPS), I naturally expect UTVG.OB to earn at least $0.5 EPS in full year 2008. This should make the stock at least double from current levels over the next 12 months.

I still have to study some more of this report and listen to today's conference call (it will happen  while the market is open), but I already know that I'll keep holding UTVG.OB.

UTVG's 3rd quarter results were great, but management blew it all at the conference call. Let me explain:

Someone asked why, with $20 M in revenue vs the $10 M expected EPS was just $0.09 vs the $0.08 expected by Hawk Associates?

Management didn't understand the question and it replied: "the 3rd quarter is the strongest from a seasonal standpoint. Next quarter we'll probably have less revenue".

But, on a prior response, they said the 3rd quarter profit margin was negatively impacted by the acquisition costs.

Well, the lesson I get from this is that I should have waited to buy UTVG.OB on a pullback to the 50 days SMA ... by the way, management said it is actively working towards moving from the OTCBB to a national exchange, but they say it takes time, UTVG.OB is just one year old so it doesn't have a lot of financial history.

I understand UTVG.OB fell 16% yesterday and it was awful. But I remain confident that the company will make $0.5 EPS next year and therefore it should be a $10 stock.

I'll keep holding UTVG.OB for the long term.

David, you just mentioned "buying on a pullback". This is what you'd been trying to avoid all along. I am curious as to how you'd propose to do that, based for instance, on the UTVG case, analyzing its particular chart for the day of when you purchased it and not knowing the present state of the chart. You said it was hard before to get the pullback, what makes you change your mind now?
Thanks.
Berloga

Quote from: berloga on November 13, 2007, 12:19:10 PM
David, you just mentioned "buying on a pullback". This is what you'd been trying to avoid all along. I am curious as to how you'd propose to do that, based for instance, on the UTVG case, analyzing its particular chart for the day of when you purchased it and not knowing the present state of the chart. You said it was hard before to get the pullback, what makes you change your mind now?
Thanks.
Berloga

Hi Berloga, what I'm starting to think is that I should take more time before buying a stock. I should study it for several days or even weeks and only then buy it ... it's just that I take so much effort after buying which after all isn't nearly as useful as the effort before buying.

The "buy trigger" could then come from a slide to a support area or a fundamental catalyst.

It isn't right to take two hours to buy a stock and then spend 1/2 an hour everyday from then on to justify that buy. I should take 10 hours to study a stock before buying and then just update the stocks with meaningful changes or information.

I'm working on this.

I generally like the idea of investing in tourism in China ... I mean, the base is so low it can only grow, and given the population numbers, it will probably be a huge expansion.

UTVG.OB seems to be a great company, growing phenomenally. In fact, it is the fastest growing company I've ever seen.

But, as realcoolhead says, it is a Chinese + OTCBB combination, and that makes me a 32% loser at this point.

I'm going to hold and study UTVG.OB for some more time, hopefully for the long term. 

Hi realcoolhead, when you have some time, can you please check if the following website is for real or not and what you think of it?

http://www.cnutg.com/

Thanks

David, it is for real. However there are too many players in the space:

www. ctrip.com
www.96115.com
www.qunar.com
www.elong.com
www.aoyou.com
......

The first three are most popular. When I went back to China in 04 and this year, I used Ctrip. I never heard of www.cnutg.com.

So it all comes down to marketing and how much percent of pie UTVG can grab.

Quote from: David Randolph on November 15, 2007, 09:00:43 AM
Hi realcoolhead, when you have some time, can you please check if the following website is for real or not and what you think of it?

http://www.cnutg.com/

Thanks

Doesn't it make more sense to go with the leader? Best in Group, CTRP? It does to me.

Quote from: BigSully1 on November 15, 2007, 02:54:27 PM
Doesn't it make more sense to go with the leader? Best in Group, CTRP? It does to me.

It's all a matter of price. CTRP is a $3.8 B market cap company and trades at 21 times fiscal 2008 earnings. UTVG is a $0.13 B market cap company and trades at 7 times next year's earnings.

So, no, it doesn't make sense. Not to me.

The thing is: the bigger one, the more customer, the more marketing influence, the better deal customer can get, then the more customer coming, the bigger gets bigger ...

Back in the days of 98/99, there are lots of competitions to eBay: uBid, onSale ... where are they now?

Quote from: David Randolph on November 15, 2007, 03:07:01 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on November 15, 2007, 02:54:27 PM
Doesn't it make more sense to go with the leader? Best in Group, CTRP? It does to me.

It's all a matter of price. CTRP is a $3.8 B market cap company and trades at 21 times fiscal 2008 earnings. UTVG is a $0.13 B market cap company and trades at 7 times next year's earnings.

So, no, it doesn't make sense. Not to me.

QuoteThe thing is: the bigger one, the more customer, the more marketing influence, the better deal customer can get, then the more customer coming, the bigger gets bigger ...

Back in the days of 98/99, there are lots of competitions to eBay: uBid, onSale ... where are they now?

First of all let me say thank you for your contribution to this thread realcoolhead, on a stock you don't have an interest.

That's a solid argument in favor of large caps. But I think EBAY's case is different from UTVG's. In EBAY's industry it was a matter of the winner takes all ... moreover the competitors you're talking about weren't profitable and when the stock market funds dried, the companies died. UTVG is profitable (at least if one believes the financial statements, which is a long shot as we know).

A good question also is: Where is EBAY now?