3SOF

Quote from: BigSully1 on November 08, 2007, 01:54:42 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on November 07, 2007, 10:04:19 PM

Next and more importantly, check out Wall Street's leaders. If you own Google, (GOOG) Research In Motion, (RIMM) Baidu.com (BIDU) or other institutional-quality stocks and never checked the day's headlines, you never would know that the broad market had sharply fallen.

That is a lesson in itself. If you don't own such stocks, it's time to take a hard look at your portfolio.

Quote from Rich Duprey - Motley Fool;

"Because the world of penny stocks is full of shysters peddling manipulation and deceit, it's often hard for investors to separate the few good companies residing there from the multitude best ignored."

"Although many people like investing in penny stocks, believing that such stocks have a better chance of increasing many times in value, nothing says that a $20 stock can't double, triple, or quadruple in value just as easily as a cheaper one. Considering that a cheap stock may be cheap for a very good reason, there's ample evidence to suggest that higher-priced stocks may actually have a better chance of going up than cheap ones do. "

I should make myself clear. I'm not totally against "cheap stocks" or even OTCBB's, only when they are an overly substantial percentage of what is supposed to be a LT holding  portfolio.

I rarely ever buy OTCBB's, but today I did so.  Will post about it on the "My Stocks" thread where it belongs.

Thank you Houlihan, and you're welcome!

Hey Big Sully and others chatting here,

Yes natural instinct when shares go down is for people to feel bad and not want to share. What everyone needs to remember is that a) You'll never sell at the top, so don't worry about it b) In any trend following type trade (which really is what 3SoF is doing) it is part of the trade expectation that you give profit back at the end because you exit when something changes to that trend (e.g fundamental news, serious break of established trend etc). Naturally that change causes price action to be coming downwards.

A few days ago I opened hedge positions on the SPX and a few weakened companies within the S&P500. I say hedged because I was still holding long positions (such as some 3SoF) and was not looking to sell those at this stage. Hedging just gives a bit of insurance if you see short term downwards action within an otherwise longer term upwards market or vice versa.

That said I haven't yet closed my hedge positions, I don't think we are 'out of correction' just yet. Indeed who knows it may be just the start of bearish period.

Regardless of market direction, there are many trading vehicles / strategies to enable you to profit / hedge or remain even available to you. 3SoF mostly plays the long side, that means you are guaranteed to get into periods of 'drawdown' on your equity when the market is not in your favour, that is a fact you can take to the bank.

Cheers

Quote from: Houlahan on November 08, 2007, 09:46:53 PM
Hi BigSully1,
I am sure you will be fine. There is always a rally somewhere.
There were some good buys today, if you were brave enough to buy and you were. It was good to see the rally from today's low. I need to learn when to buy and when to sell.
Thanks for posting good ER stocks.
I enjoy your posts.
Happy trading.

Houlihan, it's nice to know someone appreciates the "good" ER reports. I always track  them anyway, but I quit posting about them on the member boards, because I didn't think there was any  interest.

There was a number of days I didn't post them, but still tracked, when I get a chance, I'll post them all, probably on the public boards like I did last couple days.  Are you interested in the "bad" or "ugly ones"? If not for shorting, some are very good companies with a "bad" or "ugly" Q that get unreasonably beat down (especially in this environment) and can lead to a good buying opp.

Got lots more to go through tonight yet with many more reporting after the close.

Have a good night..

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 08, 2007, 10:17:15 PM
Hey Big Sully and others chatting here,

Yes natural instinct when shares go down is for people to feel bad and not want to share. What everyone needs to remember is that a) You'll never sell at the top, so don't worry about it b) In any trend following type trade (which really is what 3SoF is doing) it is part of the trade expectation that you give profit back at the end because you exit when something changes to that trend (e.g fundamental news, serious break of established trend etc). Naturally that change causes price action to be coming downwards.

A few days ago I opened hedge positions on the SPX and a few weakened companies within the S&P500. I say hedged because I was still holding long positions (such as some 3SoF) and was not looking to sell those at this stage. Hedging just gives a bit of insurance if you see short term downwards action within an otherwise longer term upwards market or vice versa.

That said I haven't yet closed my hedge positions, I don't think we are 'out of correction' just yet. Indeed who knows it may be just the start of bearish period.

Regardless of market direction, there are many trading vehicles / strategies to enable you to profit / hedge or remain even available to you. 3SoF mostly plays the long side, that means you are guaranteed to get into periods of 'drawdown' on your equity when the market is not in your favour, that is a fact you can take to the bank.

Cheers

Hey Aussie. Are you from Australia? Always wanted to go there and New Zealand. One of these days....

Agree with all you are saying, including that the market definitely is currently more bearish biased now. I can always increase my hedging again, if need be. I almost exclusively use TWM and a few sector ultra shorts, individual shorts, and PM's. I should learn to use options though, I guess.

Gotta stop the chat for now, got much to do. Have a good one.

I have to agree with AussieTrader here.  It's a little too early to be considering going long.  Although grabbing GIGM at the 50dma was probably not a bad short term trading strategy going into earnings.

The sell-off in the market broke several technical levels.  I believe we will go lower in the weeks ahead now. I have been waiting for this correction...I don't believe it will be a deep or long correction...but I may be wrong.   

Remember August is historically quiet while October is historically volatile.  In reality the opposite became reality in 2007.   I'm being a contrarian now.  I will wait to see how things play out.  Right now too many people...in my opinion...believe there will be an end of the year rally, we shall see.   

Longer term...I still believe we are in a bull market because of global expansion, and we could see a tremendous bull run next year.

Quote from: kslifka on November 08, 2007, 10:46:42 PM
I have to agree with AussieTrader here.  It's a little too early to be considering going long.  Although grabbing GIGM at the 50dma was probably not a bad short term trading strategy going into earnings.

The sell-off in the market broke several technical levels.  I believe we will go lower in the weeks ahead now. I have been waiting for this correction...I don't believe it will be a deep or long correction...but I may be wrong.   

Remember August is historically quiet while October is historically volatile.  In reality the opposite became reality in 2007.   I'm being a contrarian now.  I will wait to see how things play out.  Right now too many people...in my opinion...believe there will be an end of the year rally, we shall see.   

Longer term...I still believe we are in a bull market because of global expansion, and we could see a tremendous bull run next year.

Kslifka, I pretty sure it was you that said, you were pretty sure there would be a correction after the interest rate cut. You were right, and you did help convince me to take some more protective measures. So just curious, do you sell most everything and wait on the sidelines then? Make very ST opportunistic trades? Is that what many others are doing?

Quote from: BigSully1 on November 09, 2007, 01:48:42 PM

Quote from: kslifka on November 08, 2007, 10:46:42 PM
I have to agree with AussieTrader here.  It's a little too early to be considering going long.  Although grabbing GIGM at the 50dma was probably not a bad short term trading strategy going into earnings.

The sell-off in the market broke several technical levels.  I believe we will go lower in the weeks ahead now. I have been waiting for this correction...I don't believe it will be a deep or long correction...but I may be wrong.   

Remember August is historically quiet while October is historically volatile.  In reality the opposite became reality in 2007.   I'm being a contrarian now.  I will wait to see how things play out.  Right now too many people...in my opinion...believe there will be an end of the year rally, we shall see.   

Longer term...I still believe we are in a bull market because of global expansion, and we could see a tremendous bull run next year.

Kslifka, I pretty sure it was you that said, you were pretty sure there would be a correction after the interest rate cut. You were right, and you did help convince me to take some more protective measures. So just curious, do you sell most everything and wait on the sidelines then? Make very ST opportunistic trades? Is that what many others are doing?

Well I still have some long term holds that are down.  Right now I'm taking advantage of the volatility to make some day trades...in this type of situation...I'll buy a "hot" stock that has come down big in the middle of the day and if the market looks like it turning positive toward the end of the day...I'll jump on it and sell before the close.  I think it's too risky in a "correcting" market to jump into spiking stocks. 

Thanks kslifka! That was awesome. That's all I wanted to hear was....how do you do it. I know it is risky. I was going OK, at least on the + side, but I got burned recently. I usually try to trade good stocks. Anything from GOOG to ONNN.

Maybe the market isn' slumping today,but these stocks with earnings out sure are. What a pain. And i was actually looking forward to today.

This market is irrationally depressive, especially towards small cap stocks. Great buying opportunities out there ... stocks are so cheap it hurts.

About 9 months back I wanted to buy an 'entry level' house in Los Angeles I went to the loan companies and the way they were ready to give out loans it scared the hell out of me. I told my wife that problem is not really high prices of houses, but these guys who would give loans to those ppl who really cant afford it and pushing prices higher and higer.

Even 9 months back they were accomodating and willing to help out, just to get their cut. They did not even once asked me if I can afford the house for which I am going to pay such a big sum.

I hope I am wrong and the credit and bank write offs are done but I have still to see the spill over. Six months back there was only 1 house in my zip code in the house auction, even though there were 666 listed at forclosure.com. Three months back there were about 6, this time the number has barely doubled.

So dont know whats going on but the wisdom tooth of housing is just showing its pain. I think its going to hurt more.

Everywhere I read the so called experts are saying to be defensive and to dump small caps right now in preparation for the inevitable downturn to take place in '08. The last few sessions has certainly been a testament to this. Despite David's opinion that the stocks in the 3SOF Main are so undervalued and fundamentally sound to warrant long term positions I still don't buy the argument that one must be oblivious to the overall market in general and to maintain a buy and hold strategy. The market so far has not been kind to this approach. I have become quite pessimistic about the global economy and the risks to equities. I can't help but think that as we move forward the bears will continue to devour small caps like the ones in the Main.

After 4 terrible sessions I finally pulled the trigger and sold off 50% of my portfolio at a horrible loss. Yes, this may be a mistake.

I could be wrong but I do not see this period as a buying opportunity for equities and especially for small caps.

Good luck for those willing to weather the storm.

QuoteEverywhere I read the so called experts are saying to be defensive and to dump small caps right now in preparation for the inevitable downturn to take place in '08.

Are they? Well, at least keep on record that I say exactly the opposite.

QuoteThe last few sessions has certainly been a testament to this. Despite David's opinion that the stocks in the 3SOF Main are so undervalued and fundamentally sound to warrant long term positions I still don't buy the argument that one must be oblivious to the overall market in general and to maintain a buy and hold strategy.

A few days ago the Main was up 37% on the year. Now it is up 18.55%. My take is that a couple of weeks from now, just as naturally as it came down, it will move up to close the year with a 30% plus gain. Things change pretty fast.

QuoteThe market so far has not been kind to this approach.

Even though the Main is taking its biggest hit ever today I still consider an 18.55% return a "kind" reward. Buffet did just 22% a year and he's one of the richest men in the World.

QuoteI have become quite pessimistic about the global economy and the risks to equities. I can't help but think that as we move forward the bears will continue to devour small caps like the ones in the Main.

Time will tell.

QuoteAfter 4 terrible sessions I finally pulled the trigger and sold off 50% of my portfolio at a horrible loss. Yes, this may be a mistake.

I think it was a mistake, but time will tell. If I wanted I could sell all my portfolio right now and I would be up 18.55% for the year, but no, I'm pretty sure that I'll do 30% plus if I just keep holding everything.

QuoteI could be wrong but I do not see this period as a buying opportunity for equities and especially for small caps.

I respect your opinion and decision capricho. To me you're a "weak hand", but I understand.

QuoteGood luck for those willing to weather the storm.

Thanks, good luck to you too.

David, your insight in stocks and mkt is way above all of us here. I again want to stress that we should not have any .OB in the main or have a completely different portfolio for them. Just its a matter of risk. And yes it hurts to see stocks sold pretty cheaply. And I share the same opinion, 3SoF main will be up by 30% by year end. No doubt about that.